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Ain't no Nino

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

Things on my 'Love' list include, women, markets and weather. Maybe I'm drawn to these because they are all unpredictable. I hope I never get to the point where women become predictable (no fun in that). I know that markets will always produce surprises (US ten-year at 1.8%, while GDP hits 5%?....And things like the SNB fail). And it brings me a bit of pleasure to see that the best and brightest weather folks actually don't have a clue what will happen next.

I follow what the scientists are reporting for ENSO values on a weekly basis. ENSO is a numerical index that establishes if the Pacific Ocean is either in El Nino, or La Nina conditions. Basically, if the number is high, we have El Nino, if it is low, La Nina conditions exist. There is a zone in the middle where neither condition exists.

 

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology publishes data every other week. The US equivalent, NOAA, has a similar release. Last July almost all of the deep thinkers (and their computers) were anticipating that we would be experiencing El Nino conditions today. From NOAA:

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-20 at 9.52.16 PM

 

In October, 2014 NOAA was stilling hanging its hat with a forecast that an El Nino was right around the corner:

 

ensooctober

 

Sorry computers, it did not happen. As of Monday the Aussies have thrown in the towel. There will be no El Nino during the winter of 2015:

 

Aussie1

 

Does it matter if there is to be no El Nino? It matters a great deal to 50+ million people. El Nino brings rain to the US Pacific South, La Nina brings drought conditions:

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-22 at 9.15.05 AM

 

 

For a few weeks in December the ENSO numbers got above the level where El Nino conditions start to be felt (but not for the 3 months of average data required for an 'official' El Nin0). Guess what happened? It rained like crazy!

 

cbsla.12.3

caliblogdecember

 

But today the ENSO numbers are back below El Nino thresholds. Guess What? It stopped raining out west.

 

sanjosenews

Isfgate.caliwater1.16.15

 

The US West will survive another year of drought. It will be tough on agriculture, but, for the most part, residents will have uninterrupted supplies of potable water. But that is not the case in Brazil. The ENSO cycle has the same consequence on parts of Brazil as it does in the US West. The State of Sao Paulo is now in severe drought. The shortage of water is becoming acute. The availability of water for food production, hydro power, cooking, bathing and sanitary use is now at risk. Twenty million people are facing a very real problem:

 

saopaolo80yrs

 

WSJbrazil

 

 

January is the rainy season for this part of Brazil. That has not been the case so far in 2015:

 

the weather channel

11 million people live in the city of Sao Paulo, 44 million live in the State of Sao Paulo. Los Angeles has a population of 11 million, The State of California has 38 million. The State of Sao Paulo is 1/3 of Brazil's GDP - about $3/4 Trillion.

Either it rains in Brazil - soon - or there will be big problems in six-months.

 

Note: Periods where ENSO readings are Negative/Neutral (no rain) are common. The duration of the cycles drives the extremes. NOAA has data back to 1950 (El Nino is as old as the oceans). There are periods where there was no El Nino for four consecutive years - 1959-63, 1978-82, 1998 -2002. The last El Nino was in 2010. This means that the current No Nino period will extend well into its 5th year. Have we passed the tipping point for Brazil? We'll know in a few months.

 

 

City of Sao Paulo

saopaulo3

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-22 at 11.49.36 AM

 

 

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Fri, 01/23/2015 - 15:30 | 5697635 steveo77
steveo77's picture

I sent this to the prime minister of Japan (from Hawaii)

Fukushima radiation and heavy metals are killing all of our sea urchin

Please stop killing our sea urchin and all the other species.

I am boycotting any more trips to Japan until Japan can stand with honor after excavating the coria at Fukushima.    And stop lying!

--------------------------------------------

You can also express your opinions to the Prime Minister of Japan, please use link at this location

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/01/how-to-complain-to-japan-to...

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 12:52 | 5697031 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Can't figure out how to do a tilde, Bruce?

Nino is Westley Snipes' character from "New Jack City".

PS -- Okay article.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:14 | 5696585 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

"I hope I never get to the point where women become predictable" - quit worrying, that point doesn't exist

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:08 | 5696552 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

The water shortage is going critical no just for basic human needs but a number of hydroelectric dams are also running very low before the dry season. Note that some energy is already being supplied by Argentina and programmed power cuts are on the horizon.

There is also a major corruption investigation, still under wraps, that has the potential to bring down top political figures including the just reelected President and a significant part of Congress.

Combining those with a general dissatisfaction with growing inflation, violence and a sense of "no easy way out of this" there's a perfect storm brewing over Brazil. The kind that brings down not water but fire.

In short, if you are an investor, prudence would advise to move your money out of Brazil soon.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 08:08 | 5695777 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

That's quite the following you have there, Bruce.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 01:16 | 5695337 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

Magnetosphere is 15% weaker. More cosmic ray energy penetrates the system, hence the prevalence of extreme weather patterns of late.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:59 | 5696183 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Caused by increase in tin-foil hat usage.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 12:08 | 5696850 zapdude
zapdude's picture
No tin foil hat needed, seems legit? Earth's magnetic field is weakening 10 times faster than thought in the Western Hemisphere
  • Data was collected by the European Space Agency's Swarm satellites
  • First data set reveals dramatic declines over the Western hemisphere, but a strengthening of the Earth's magnetic field over the southern Indian Ocean
  • Changes could be due to the magnetic poles getting ready to 'flip'
  • Latest measurements confirm movement of magnetic North towards Siberia
  • Scientists previously estimated the Earth’s magnetic field is weakening at five per cent every century and now think it could be 10 times as fast

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2686070/Earths-magnetic-field-weakening-10-times-faster-thought-Western-Hemisphere.html

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 14:45 | 5697507 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

I've been following it for awhile and to just think.

How cool to be at the transmutation point and live thru it.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 00:09 | 5695163 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Bruce I'd deeply appreciate an explanation, why you think Retail F/X traders are uneducated.

 The Majority of CHF losses were from Banks and Hedge Funds. I'll provide the information Bruce.

 I get asked to run F/X divisions for banks, on a regular basis Bruce. I decline, because I like being a Retail trader MOAR!

 Bruce you know how orders are filled.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:27 | 5695420 me again
me again's picture

You know Bruce; I have a soft spot in my heart for you. Because the day you told everyone that the Swiss Franc had hit 1.41 to the Euro; and anounced, "L'm holding on to my Swissies"; probably the third most stupid thing I've ever heard a human being say; I immediately shorted them with all available discretionary capital, and I made over 130,000$ after taxes; simplly because you called my attention to something you were not equipped to understand. But, at this point Bruce, I'm afraid I have to tell you I have absolutely no respect for you at all. You not only cannot think outside the box; it is a very, very, tiny box. The SNB failed ? No, Bruce; you failed. over and over and over again; and that's why you're writting these stupid newsletters for idiots on the world wide waste of time and I'm living on my private estate in Hawaii. Goodbye Bruce; i won't be wasting any more time reading any of your stupid meandering.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:40 | 5698098 farmboy
farmboy's picture

Anyone in trading especially in FX that blames others for his profit or loss is a moron. It's a mans world, take your loss or profit and blame or praise none other then yourself.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 06:48 | 5695673 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Not sure I understand your point. You say I advocated "holding Swiss" vs euro when the rate was 1.4. It's .9 now, so I'm a genius? you went long Euro Swiss at 1.41 and made money? How?

 

 

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:21 | 5695963 falak pema
falak pema's picture

he said " I went short and didn't hold on to francs" --unlike his alleged affirmation that you advised holding on to them at 1.41.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:38 | 5695433 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

sheesh, so harsh. why the flame thrower dude? Bruce juz dis guy, y'know?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:35 | 5695428 me again
me again's picture

Oh, and Bruce ? there is no climate model. None. It does not exist. You, of course, are not equipped to understand this, but perhaps someone else reading this, may. What does exist are computer programs bashed together by third rate programmers that give them the result they had in mind in the first place. the Fact that climate cannot be predicted, and that's what it is, a Fact; is what started a whole new field of Mathematical and Scientific Research; called Chaos Theory. good Luck Bruce; you're going to need it.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 07:04 | 5695696 Roanman
Roanman's picture

You failed to address the point regarding the Swiss Franc.

Would you care too?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 08:29 | 5695814 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Sock puppet I suspect.

Alter ego of a freak.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 22:52 | 5694948 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

You can leverage the bet by buying a drought hammered Pecan farm in TX 

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 21:06 | 5694592 me again
me again's picture

Ah, yes; but they know exactly what the temperature will be fifty years from now if you don't all roll over and pay your carbon taxes, you bad little people.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 05:17 | 5695605 HughK
HughK's picture

Ah yes, if any aspect of reality, such as climate change, threatens an extreme version of libertarian ideology where there is never such a thing as the tragedy of the commons, then it's best to just stick your head in the sand and pretend it's not happening.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 08:00 | 5695762 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The fact that climate changes is not in dispute you fucking moron. The fact that ignorant by 'education' dipsticks like yourself advocate trusting the very same sociopaths responsible for the unholy clusterfuck humanity currently endures so as that our 'climate' can be somehow altered so as to align with the preferences of said sociopaths, reveals you to not only be a danger to your astonishingly gullible self, but to every other man, woman, and child on the planet.

Idiot.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 21:09 | 5694613 me again
me again's picture

44 Million people live in Sao Paulo; when human beings grasp the concept of birth control I'll be willing to admit they're smarter than yeast; until then; it's an open question.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 23:18 | 5695014 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Brazil? 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:31 | 5695423 me again
me again's picture

no,, dude; we're discussing Sao Paulo indianna.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:22 | 5695977 falak pema
falak pema's picture

44 million yeast or people in San P?

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 20:58 | 5694577 Gab Timov
Gab Timov's picture

Can we get a company started to ship arctic/antarctic ice to cities around the world? why not?

Also, there's the idea of diverting some of the Great Lakes fresh water ....sending it to the drier parts of the US instead of letting it just flow out to the salty Atlantic Ocean.

I guess these things could happen post-recovery. ;-)

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 08:42 | 5699379 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

And while you're at it why not start a company (gov subsidized of course) to build and install anti-pollution devices for volcanos?

The profits would be explosive!

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:46 | 5694313 Blano
Blano's picture

Those 3 aren't just unpredictable Bruce.  They're deadly.

Maybe you have a death wish.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:32 | 5694258 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

It is clear that neither the US nor the Australian weather people have a handle on the cause and effect relationships of various factors affecting the climate.  Intuitively, one would expect that conditions in the oceans would have a prime mover impact on climate. given their immense volume and heat storage capacity.  This is the basis of the El Niño and La Niña theories.  But the experience suggests that there are other, equally powerful, forces at play.  What might these be?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 08:08 | 5695770 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Some 'conspiracy theorist' actually claim that the Sun might play some sort of role in determining earths climate.

 

How crazy is that?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:36 | 5696037 HalinCA
HalinCA's picture

Something that can raise global temps 20 degrees in 8 hours every day doesn't need to vary much at all to wreck havoc on us ...  the idiots who focus on human activity as the driver of climate change are worrying about third order effects ... that's what is crazy to me ....

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:53 | 5694349 scottch
scottch's picture

The Sun for one.  The spread-spectrum energy it sends Earth's way is not constant but highly variable.   The Earth also receives energy in the form of cosmic rays from sources other than the sun that also effect of climate.  The Earth is expelling tremendous amount of methane and other componds that impact the climate.  Cow farts not so much.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:42 | 5695437 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

yer its bullshit. There used to be just 'weather'.  then there was el nino /la nina in 7 year cycles. Now they aint 7 year cycles, but the cycles coul be longer or shorter. Now, any given day can be el nino or la nina

in other words, full circle. its back to just being 'weather' - but by a name that makes them appear smarter 

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:50 | 5694338 joego1
joego1's picture

I noticed every time there is QE by a CB we get the polar vortex.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:18 | 5694197 joego1
joego1's picture

NOAA is still predicting an El Nino in the next couple of months.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:54 | 5694352 scottch
scottch's picture

NOAA thinks the earth is warming because of cow farts.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 20:21 | 5694452 joego1
joego1's picture

I wonder what the cows think?

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 21:46 | 5694710 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"I hope I'm a milk cow and not a a beef cow. I hope, I hope"

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:25 | 5698236 odatruf
odatruf's picture

You sir, won the Internet today.

 

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:06 | 5694157 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No one reads the articles.

 

Just the comments.

 

Any news about about the Swiss Franc. Hewooo?  Hans Bwix is that you?

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 19:28 | 5694232 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Brokers raised the minimum margin requirements from 2-5%,(chf, nok sek) on my retail platforms. My ECN platforms are CME based.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 07:31 | 5695723 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Noooooo... now I'll have to deposit another $10 into my 50000000000:1 leveraged account.  I can't afford that!

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 21:11 | 5694611 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wow. Five percent down on a million ain't bad!

 

So if I give them the full million they'll sport me 9  million to play with?

Cool!

WHAT AM I BUYING!

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 18:42 | 5694076 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Bruce I'll probably get hammered over my comment. I respect your years in the banking industry. You made a comment last week that really "chapped my hide".

You've got the audacity to deflect and deny that most of the CHF currency losses were on institutional and accredited traders and hide behind the Retail Currency market? Are you kidding me? You bankers lever and cross collateralize paper in ways that are impossible in the "real world"

 Bruce respectfully. The retail F/X market is what keeps you guys HONEST! The ECB is pumping 60 BILLION EUROS a MONTH into banks , and you're griping about 250 million in FXCM 2nd tier market maker loses?

 Bruce do yourself a favor and quit painting those "boxcars", and focus on reality!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 02:28 | 5695415 Ted K
Ted K's picture

Oh, but "Yen Cross", you missed an important fact: If Bruce admitted the FACTS as you present them above, then Bruce Krastings would ALSO have to admit that BANKER WELFARE and FAT-CAT WELFARE have been alive and well and on a MUCH GRANDER SCALE than welfare checks to the near non-existant black welfare Moms driving expensive Cadillacs he and Ronald Reagan insisted were rampant in this country (though like Bigfoot there was never a siting).

It's what's known as a "false narrative". One which Ronald Reagan and his puppetmasters in Reagan's early Alzheimers years sold to a country too lazy to make it through the entire front section of a newspaper when they were already exhausted from reading the sports page and the funnies.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 16:32 | 5697834 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

There are plenty of Social Welfare sucking douches in the metro NYC NY/NJ region.  -Probably many many more than the number of Corporate Welfare leeches.  But, it is absolutely undeniable that the Corporate Welfare leeches rake sums that make the typical Ghetto Caddy drivers look like saints.

Do rich fucks really need to have the FEDs gift them the down payment of a fucking $100K+ Tesla Electric Roadster?  Elon Musk & the weasels that get subsidies to buy his toys are just different brands of Welfare Suckers.

What, are we gonna make payments on private jet-planes and yachts for these high flyers next?

I hate the double standard.  Not all Welfare Leeches are on the same level of suckdom.

Main St. cons and leeches have nothing on the Wall St. criminal lampreys.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 18:20 | 5693966 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 16:28 | 5693542 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Flack! Where is your wonderful insight on these issues?!

Thu, 01/22/2015 - 18:18 | 5693964 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The prospects of predicting the weather are very grim, women and markets for me, not so much.

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