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"Stocks Have Gone Up Due To The Fed" Carl Icahn Warns "It Will Come Home To Roost"
In an awkwardly uncomfortable non-cheerleadery few minutes on CNBC this morning, he-who-must-be-listened-to (when he is buying stuff and not selling it) - Carl Icahn - dropped a few truth bombs on an unsuspecting Scott Wapner. Starting with warnings about energy sector debt, fearing a surge in defaults and "what management can do to hurt you" if you own that debt, Icahn then moved on to discuss today's ECB move and its implications. Confirming his "extremely cautious" stance to the overall market, Icahn explained how "the reason the stock market has gone up is because of the Federal Reserve," and now the rest of the world is jumping on the bandwagon "with all this issuance of money," and the implicitly strengthening USDollar "will come home to roost at some point." While not pointing to a specific point in time, Icahn concluded, "you do have to be extremely cautious and we have hedges on.. and it's too early to buy oil stocks/bonds."
Icahn explains... (apologies for audio quality)
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Yeah but maybe after they go up alot more due to alot more Fed.
Icahn't believe it's not a bubble.
Sorry, but if you are a skimmer, you cannot go on TV and bitch about the skim.
pods
But there's nothing left to skim!
Was Icahn flying in his private jet during the interview?
so i guess its time to buy oil stocks nd bonds
what a POS kike, die please!
Yeah really,
Why doesnt his kid just up and off him just like that other rich kid did.
You all undertake the good Mr. Icahn. The first rule of being a rich effer is to keep all the less rich effers in the dark. He's not going to tell the world what he really thinks. That's his advantage and a smart fellow like him knows it...
;-D
why the downers... he's actually a great guy and a gentile?
And here you sit, generating sympathy for him like a fool!
Or should I say 'tool?'
Carl is one of worlds 50 richest jews with a net worth of in excess of 10.5 billion.
Go tweet yourself Carl
Has this con artist gotten Tim Cooke to buy back another $100,000,000,000 in AAPL stock yet?
AAPL is obviously different and is undervalued. Obviously.
The un-fed has not yet begun to fight. They'll take the wraps off "big bertha" when they really get ready to print.
Make the ECB look like the pikers they are!
No shit, Carl.
he bought a lot of ebay assuming alibaba will buy ebay.
Well, now we know the true identity of 'Captain Obvious'.
There are going to be a lot of people who get their asses handed to them when the fed doesn't raise rates and the EUR/USD shorts get squeezed.
Yes Doc, and then they're going to get an extra scoop of fudge when the Fed. starts jawboning easing again. ;-)
will be almost as fun as watching the "everyone short the yen" trade blow up
If the folks who gave us Bailout Nation did so because they were afraid of total anarchy...and we got the total anarchy anyways...why would the policy dude say "we need a weaker dollar"?
Not saying that's exactly what won't happen...just wondering out loud again.
It's interesting that you mention that. Despite the 3-4% rise in $usd over the last several weeks the $/¥ trade can't break out of the 118.00 handle.
If the $usd is trading at these stratospheric levels, what does that tell you if the usdx retraces lower?
yeah ... i know where you going with this
and, yes, yen strengthen will hurt usd
but, overall, still a usd bull (likely for another year or two)
my eye has/is/will be on china ...when (not if) they de-peg from usd ... imo a uh, rather large, short squeeze rally in yen will ensue
China widened the yuan trading band last summer. You aren't going to see an overnight Swiss style depeg.
China ,Russia, and I'm sure many more sovereigns will continue to erode the need to trade in $usd terms. Keep a watch on the May area this spring when China and Russia open their alternative SWIFT clearing house.
If that takes off, things will deteriorate rapidly for the $usd. Massive cash flows will move to that less invasive banking alternative.
one reason i remain a dollar bull ... the amount of emerging market debt priced in usd ... till wide spread defaults occur there will be a scramble for dollar to meet obligations ... and when defaults occur ... a scramble for usd (flight to safety)
As a guy that toys with currencies all day long, I can assure you that there's much better places to run then the $usd. I think traders are starting to realize that as well.
Commodities are really cheap right now. Even if they dropped another 10-20% you own them outright and they are "finite". They have tangible value. The markets are stretched in every asset class, except commodities.
The run to the $usd has already happened. If the equity markets tank, the cash will rotate into bonds and commodities. The $usd gains nothing in those transactions as they were $usd denominated in the first place.
If anything the lower bond yields will pressure the $usd.
but the liquidity of usd one of its major assets
a small player can move in/out of something without moving the needle ... a sovereign wealth fund with $1 trillion?
run to safety of usd when needed ... exit anytime you want as needed
try doing that in a currency you've cornered
Tell that to all the emerging market sovereigns that use $usd denominated loans to trade with.
They've been decimated by the strong $usd. Profit margins are used to cover the currency differential, on the loans and lines of credit.
agree
i don't dispute that the USD will tumble (some day ... a couple of years maybe) ... just that a few dominos must fall first
You're going to see a substancial retrace of the $usd over the next few months. (starting now) Back in the mid 2000's a massive currency rebalancing was done, and that initially weakened the $. Since 2008 over $11 trillion globally incurrency has been injected into the markets.
Even attempting to define risk and price discovery is laughable. When I see central banks blabbering about "terms of trade" valuations I laugh.
we'll see about that
put me down for DXY > 100 at some point (and no major weakness of usd till at least 2016)
whatever happens ... it will no doubt be interesting
You sound like you think the Yuan will depreciate if the Chinese de-peg. If they de-peg, then the dollar should fall, their currency appreciate and that would make their exports even less competitive against a weakening Euro. Why would the Chinese not just widen the bands, take the pain of the "strong" dollar, and ride the fed's coat tails into the next QE?
Exact opposite Doc If China depegs the Yuan will appreciate against the $. China want's a stronger Yuan eventually, because they want to be more internal demand based. (stronger currency stronger purchasing power)
China uses the trading band to keep a cap on the yuan. China widened the band so that the PBoC had more flexibility as the Yuan strengthens and they unwind the massive treasury holdings they have.
The PBoC knows there's no way that China is going to keep pumping 7+% export numbers out. They need to focus on internal consumption.
china does not have social safety net that US has ... back in 2006 President Bush in a speech implored them to set up some sort of social security.
until that occurs china must rely on a mercantile economy to grow as its citizens need to save
China has by far the largest F/X holdings on planet Earth.($2.2T+ That's a huge safety net).
The serfs are Agrarian, and the country has been around for more than 5000 years. I'm sure the Chinese, as much as I joke about them, are very proficient at sinking boats. ;-)
yeah, much of china still in the stone age
but (former) factory workers ain't going back to THAT ... they'll riot first
At least they have the gumption enough to riot. In the states they just bitch about entitlements and get fatter.
That's what I said. The Yuan will appreciate against the dollar and the Euro. From what I'm reading he is suggesting the dollar will continue to strengthen and the Yuan will weaken if they de-peg.
Maybe it's because I confused you with the SWIFT comment Doc?
they would de-peg to devalue the yuan
i'm in the china will have a hard landing camp ... if that were occur anything/everything on the table
a few years back, president hu said china needed to create around 17 million new jobs a year ... every year (to keep civil unrest off the table) ... think about that number ... it is huge
Interesting, but I don't believe the fed will want a strengthening Dollar against the Yuan. We are already hearing grumblings about the strong dollar.
They would depeg to strengthen the Yuan. The yuan by some estimates is 30% undervalued.
wow, that would kiss off exports ... Big Time
hello tanks in the streets
Who should really care about levitating stock prices because of central bank support mechanisms when there are deflated footballs being used in NFL fucking playoff games?!?!?!
WHERE ARE YOUR PRIORITIES!!!!!!
You bring up a good point. If I check my local online rag and read the comments, I bet you 10-1 that there will be dozens more comments of inane shit like this than on important topics.
(of course, on important topics it is all fake left-right bsm, but I digress)
People are not forced into the pen and sheared, they are stampeding to get in there.
pods
I you want to see some dumbfounded looks, just start talking to people about Mario Draghi.
Most likely any response would be to ask what movie that character is from.
He fought in one of the Rocky films. He was really good.
What's his name (Crowder?) was at it again a few days ago with his man on the street stuff about Martin Luther King (recently dying, first African-American astronaut on the moon, etc.).
When asked about infinity, Albert Einstein said there were only two things he knew of that were infinite: The universe and human stupidity (and he wasn't sure about the former).
(Or similar words to that effect.)
I just read the link that's been plastered on Drudge's page for what seems like an eternity and these chatty Kathys are talking about how Belichick was dressed for his press conference. The things the sheep focus on are unfuckingbelivable and they deserve what's coming to them.
Funny how everyone is having their own epiphany now.
DXY hit the afterburners and blew thru 94
I FOR ONE AM SHOCKED TO HEAR THIS! SHOCKED!
I didn't know the Fed had anything to with stock gains. How could they? They buy bonds. That's there job and that's what they do.
Queue up GDP calculation changes based on purchases by central banks of bonds.
It's good time to buy stocks, at least in Europe, we have our Super Mario.
I'cahn is wrong. Buying house is also good idea, no bubbles here
Where will stocks go in spring when the US puts its boots on the ground in Ukraine?
http://news.antiwar.com/2015/01/21/pentagon-confirms-us-troops-will-depl...
Obama has already written them off as a lost cause. If anything at all is to be done, it's up to Europe (not NATO).
ussualy such a guys tell you only what is related to the site of the position he took...whethever it is true or totaly bull...it. I still prefer straighforward and honest gues....this time Icahn just said nothing new at all...:)
http://prudentvalueinvestor.blogspot.com
Yeah, and the way to play it is front-run the Fed. QE 4 arriving soon.
QE 4 is as sure as daybreak.
I put my money in dollars 4 weeks ago and let me tell you: HAPPY!
AND THE STOCKS ARE ALSO UP SO DOUBLE BAM! :)
Aren't you a good little monkey!
It's like sinking all your money into a perpetual motion machine that goes on forever (some like to call "the market")
Another water skier jumping the shark.
Bring me some Mogen David wine and some country smoked ham.
Apparently 2050 on the S&P500 is the goal today. "They" seem hell bent on getting+keeping it there.
Mr. Icahn is but the latest to be utterly ignored. Oh, Well! Join the multitude of others.
"and it's too early to buy oil stocks/bonds."
And it is usually FAR SMARTER to do the OPPOSITE of what billionaires and Goldmanites say...
A bright child at some point will ask the following question: "Why doesn't the government just pay everyone enough money so that we're all rich?" At this point, an adult explains the concept of inflation.
What we have here is a cabal of adults whose jobs depend on them ignoring this basic fact. This disturbs me.
just a 250 point Dow bounce so far as Oil shits the bed again
No roosting today. Flying like a bat outta hell!
Spiv.
OT/ BIBI comes to town for the repubs to help himself get re-elected.
"You scratchy my backie, I scratchy our backie"... And Boehner plays along/
Not POtus, so one up for him.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-wont-meet-netanyahu-during-israel...
When Congress shows us that Repugs are worse two-faced hypocrites than "yes we scam" Demokrats of NSA forever mantra.
No wonder Cherokee Lady is the only one who carries any credibility in that Oligarchy zoo.
All this Central Bank activity is nothing more than a timeout from the coming Depression to allow the top 5% to get out with their assets and gold...at some point they all know, Yellen, Draghi, etc..., that the "whatever it takes" morale hazard moment will be over and the wreckage will be epic.