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Crude Tumbles On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build Since 2001
Well so much for ECB QE sparking economic growth and inflation expectations... And then EIA confirms last week's crude oil inventory build was the largest since 2001! WTI is now nearing a $45 handle once again...
Biggest weekly crude build since 2001...
WTI nears a $45 handle again...
Hope turns to reality...
Now where will Energy stocks go?
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I am giddy like a 14 year old about to nail the prom queen
ECB QE is the biggest disapointment since Basic Instinct 2.
LOL for both!
Remember crude is priced in USD. USD is soaring.
What is crude priced in EUR doing ?
Crude is down ~60% in six months. The dollar rise is up ~17% in that same time.
That means you will be giddy for about what? 15 seconds?
Houston.....We have a problem!!
Naaaa, it's a banker opportunity......
We're starting to oscillate around $47. I say we've hit the nadir.
We may or may not be at a bottom but it isn't a 'V' bottom. Prices stuck long term at 50 will be worse than a dip to 30 followed by a rebound.
Draghi just got a response analogous to a hooker laughing at your dick and giving you your money back.
This happen to someone before??
Need to pick better hookers
Your Mom and Dad both. He was the hooker and she has a dick!
One of many sucker rallies coming for crude oil. http://investfts.blogspot.co.uk/
No inventory report today?
i just happened to look at this chart this morning, and noticed something isn't quite right... (dxy vs spx)
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
"everything is awesome"
You mean the relentless upward trend?
also, the inverse correlation of dxy vs s&p500 that completely disappeared on or around sept 13 2012, then turned into a positive correlation around july 2014.
'totally normal, totally health'
Seems there was not enough bunga-bunga.
Somebody said $25. Somebody else said it's staying low for a few years.
So what's it today? $47?
Huh. Wonder what that all means?
It means this: take the predictions of the soothsayers with a grain of salt. Put as much credibility in them as you would Karmac the Magician.
Meh, BTFD. Look at that "market"soar.
People are going to wish they bought at $44-47 when Summer hits...
No one is going to touch shale for the next 10 years after this because they know that the Saudi's can turn them off like a light. Which is the whole point of this exercise.
Its also a nice wake up call to Putin to diversify and actually start to produce something other than oligarchs.
You may very well be correct. Given the level of layoffs/rig count drops it is a matter of time. Once enough shale has crumbled, the Saudis will likely cut back and prices will rocket up. The Saudis can't do this forever!
I've been slowly accumulating USO and DBO in preparation for said rise.
I have been too....UCO because Im crazy. I know about the Contango problem...etc. But I dont expect the low prices to drag out too long (could be wrong)
But I think we will still have some increasing inventory over a bit of time, but its really not about supply/demand. Its mostly political Saudi stuff...and Shale is going to die fairly quickly. I think we know they are walking dead in any event.
Summer driving is coming, people will ramp up on oil. I think we are oversold right now based on emotion
you've forgotten 1 key fact: the US demand picture is crumbling due to the latest recession setting in. $20 oil is coming.
"I won't drone on, and Oil keep it short: We VIXed some oily folks." -O
The bigger the stimulus, the longer we get <50 oil. What now...?
Stawks are shooting higher though, so all is well
If it was telegraphed in advance why was there any market reaction at all?
The only market move on the news for the next ten years I imagine.
Kills demand...all of Europe rolls over and dies.
Move along.
gotta believe folks are going to buy oil futures contracts at this level, seems like a pretty good bet to me.
I went to all cash pre-ECB but bought some oil services stocks on this dip. They are not at the bottoms from last week, but there are hints floating around from the Saudis that we are close to a bottom. Longer term oil futures jumped over a $1.00 yesterday out throughh 2016, and combined with the small push up from last week's prices I see this as a good opportunity. Holding aside plenty of dry powder and looking for opportunities.
this looks like fun
Love the Dow30 dip and rip, oil 46.35 - watching the algo-shitsnackingcracker-circus with joy last few days.
A build of 5.5 million barrels, the highest inventory in 80 years?
Where do they put all of this shit?
Actually there is a really good article over on oilprice.com that talks about the contango play in oil right now. The cliff notes: prices are likely stabilizing where they are because companies and countries are rushing to fill the 2/3 empty storage capacity in the US. Little storage remains in Europe.
Why thank you my brother. I shall commence the surfing.
I did the site civil design for a storage facility in Cushing, OK several years ago. I can't remember the storgae capacity for each tank, but it was pretty huge. I think this tank farm had over 20 tanks on it if memory serves me correctly, and that is just one of many in the vicinity.
When are we going to get charts to show the following... maybe never, "Cuz this time it's Dif'rent"®, right?
We looked at the 6 major oil price corrections over the past 30 years, and compared them to the current situation. Click here for data on each historical correction. Here’s what we found:
6 Major Corrections,
1985-present
Average WTI price decline
- 59.9%
Average Length (peak-to-trough, trading days)
227
1 year WTI price rebound (from low point)
+ 76.4%
Current Correction, as of Jan 12, 2015
- 57.2%
141
?
Thanks for the power point. I knew this to be the case but never saw it all in one place. Two groups hold the high cards in this poker game: 1) Saudi/OPEC and 2) terrorists that work for the Saudis (oops, one and the same). OPEC will either cave or some port is going to get jihadi'd.
The Saudis are playing a bit of a game here and while they can hold their breath longer than others, they will very quickly turn blue in the face.
Other factors to consider: How pissed is Vlad and the other countries right now? Last time I checked Vlad kills people for less than this.
Who will defend Saudis? The United States?
I would expect at some point Vlad might send someone to have a friendly chat with the Sheiks
The Archdruid strikes again - with a pretty turn of phrase.
"Now that the goose that laid the golden eggs is bobbing feet upwards in a pond of used fracking fluid, "
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2015/01/the-mariners-rule.html
Im holding out for Negative rates at the pump.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-may-boost-growth-113918456.html
This "expert" should be drawn and quartered! Idiot!!
Oil won't last long. Ten, fifteen years, tops.
About one trillion more barrels of oil are recoverable. Divide that by the one billion gasoline vehicles now registered = 833 barrels/vehicle x 42 gallons in a barrel x .4 (about 40% is made into gasoline), times 20 miles per gallon = 330,000 miles per vehicle, which is about the maximum miles gasoline-powered vehicles last. The 50 million new vehicles added annually roughly offest those that don't make it that long.
What about the trllion barrels they just found in Australia or the trillion barrels they caped inthe 80 in the artic near purdo bay or the trillion in the orinocco oil fields , there is enough oil to last hundreds of years at the current usage.
All of the U.S. macro was bad this morning. Just wait until the hangover sets in later.
45% of oil consumption is made up of the Top 5 consumers (US, China, Japan, India, Russia), to me the price has temporarily been distorted by QE, and is now reflecting the real economic strength of these economies.
One thing I learned from an experienced oil trader last week is that Saudi Arabia has probably the largest oil field of all time located in the middle of KSA. It isn't running, either; just the fields elsewhere in Saudi. To me, that says that oil prices are going to remain low for a long time. I think Sauds have bills to pay just like everyone else, and they certainly want to be the mainline dealers to the good ol' US. So where are energy stocks headed? I don't think the US energy stocks are headed anywhere but down, and something tells me the Saudis don't care, really.
RC,
Maybe. But why has SA looked for oil in the Red Sea? Is the oil trader, ahem, talking his book?
http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/06/aramco-confirms-deepwater-r...
Saudi's have walls o build. long long long walls.
RBN is suggesting that we may see increased production next year despite reduced CAPEX and rig counts.
https://rbnenergy.com/rig-cuts-deep-output-high-crude-producers-cut-budg...
====>New Recession
====> Continuing Depression
Wow. Nearly 50 million barrels in the commercial inventories more than this time last year. And the highest weekly increase in 15 years, when price is at $45?? That's a loooootttt of supply build-up. American producers don't seem very intent on stopping production either. Hard to see how the price will even return to shale-sustainable levels in an environment like this. American shale has become American Oil's own worst nightmare...