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Crude, Copper, & Euro Currency Crushed By King Dollar's Best Week In Over 3 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Crazy week (for a short week) with epic moves in FX and commodity markets. Treasuries kinda quiet and we suspect for many, stocks disappointing given the trillion dollars of awesomeness from Draghi...

Release The Draghi...

 

Or perhaps - this better summed up the carnage of the week...

 

Stocks ended the week higher led by Nasdaq and Trannies but we closed very weak as we suspect Greek election fears weighed on risk

 

But from ECBQE, US equities have given plenty back today... It's time for ECBQE2!!!

 

Benoit Coeure Is No Jim Bullard!!!

 

Leaving only The Nasdaq green for 2015...

 

What happens next?

 

The USD soared on the week as CAD, Swissy, and EUR all dumped...

 

Treasury yields ended the week lower with 30Y leading (down 7.5bps) and flattening dramatically...

 

Gold (and bond yields) were smashed lower at 10amET (just as EURCHF surged... cue mysterious music)...

 

But gold and silver retraced most of that plunge... leaving them green on the week...

 

But after ECBQE it was copper and crude that were crushed...

 

With copper dumping after regaining China crash losses...

UPS spoiled the "everything is awesome" narrative, warning about US domestic weakness and not greatly benefitting from low fuel prices...

 

*  *  *

SUMMING UP THE WEEK

FX was chaos...

  • EURUSD dropped around 3% (EUR weakness) down 6th week in a row (23 of last 30 weeks), worst since July 2012, 5.1% swing from high to low is biggest drop since May 2010 to its lowest since May 2003.
  • Swissy dropped 2.25% on the week (Swiss Franc weakness), worst week since Jan 2013 but still up around 16% over 2 weeks
  • Loonie crashed 3.65% worst week for Canadian Dollar since September 2011
  • The US Dollar Index - up 2.5% - had its best week since September 2011 up 9 of the last 11 weeks

Commodities very also volatile...

  • Gold up 3rd week in a row, up over 12% (low to high) best 3-week swing since August 2011
  • Silver up 3% this week, 3rd week in a row, 19% is best 3 week swing since Aug 2013
  • WTI Crude Oil down 15th of last 17 weeks dropping over 7% this week to near new cycle lows (4th worst week since June 2012)
  • Copper worst week since Nov 2014, down 5 of last 6 weeks, lowest close since July 2009 (back below 2.50), falling after recovering the China crash drop.

Treasuries mixed

  • 30Y Futures to new record high close price (up 4th week in a row), best 4 week run since April 2013 (down 7bps on the short week)
  • 2Y and 5Y yield closed up 1bps on the week

Stocks had their best week in 2015 overall...

  • Trannies up 2.5% - best week since October 2014
  • Nasdaq up 2.7% - best week since October 2014

Leaving Silver still 2015's winner followed by gold with oil laggard... stocks doing slightly better than last year at this time, PMs doing a lot better and The Dollar massively better

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:07 | 5697951 VATICANT
VATICANT's picture

Euro QE just in time; not long now until the dominoes are falling!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:18 | 5697988 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

Fantastic! The input costs on my moonshine still fabrication operation just got hammered.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:25 | 5698032 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Fuck Liam Neeson.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:53 | 5698151 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

... a COPPER STILL in every GARAGE & POT for all the CHICKS in the New AmeriKa!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:24 | 5698363 knukles
knukles's picture

Damn right.  A woman's place is in her Christian Louboutins in the kitchen slaving over her copper chafing dishes or under the hood of the Lamborghini fixing the A/C tubes, showing her butt crack.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:55 | 5698441 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

Don't get all misogynist on me now. I just want to get my sweetie a little stoned & wantin' 2 roll around some.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:59 | 5698462 knukles
knukles's picture

You're right.  Much better idea. 
Honey, did you install those brake pads for the Pinto I got at the Pick n' Pull?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:24 | 5698020 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

King Dollar??? i like silver and gold myself!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:37 | 5698088 Zirpedge
Zirpedge's picture

Am I the only one here who sleeps on a mattress stuffed with cash? Would hate to be loaded up on debt right now, stuck paying it back with appreciating dollars.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:26 | 5698374 knukles
knukles's picture

I dunno 'bout you Zirpy, but to take that one step further, I wanna be loaded up on (as in long of) lots of good quality debt with appreciating dollars.
Even them low coupons gonna look good if all hell deflation breaks loose like the 20's  (clearing throat)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:34 | 5698254 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

And what happens Monday to oil and stocks if Tsipras wins majority?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:27 | 5698376 knukles
knukles's picture

Who cares.....   The bankers will buy him off as well. 
That or a home improvement nail gun accident

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:08 | 5697953 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

nice try on the phony paper prices of the only 2 forms of real money today before Syriza tells the ECB to "lick their balls and call them Charles..."

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:10 | 5697954 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Stawks worried about Greek happenings'....lol?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:21 | 5698014 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yeah, exactly.  "Turkey invades, nobody cares" is more like it.

 

Qatari airstrikes on Italy using American made F-16's would probably be news though.

 

Hey, you're either long the dollar or not I guess!

 

Meanwhile back in the real world I say again...save for railroads DO NOT BE LONG TRANSPORTS WHILE OIL PRICES ARE COLLAPSING.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:11 | 5697958 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

CNBC running the headline:  "Stocks positive for the week!"  LOL, they never give up.

It would be great if Draghi's bazooka was a dud and the markets start a grind downward.

Of course, the FED could just come out and say they won't be raising rates, then announce their "Student Solvency Debt Derivatives" (S.S.D.D.) program.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:19 | 5697995 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But what about the important stuff like deflated footballs? We got to KNOW! Stuporbowl national drunkfest counting on it!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:30 | 5698053 saints51
saints51's picture

A retard likely downvoted you. How dare you talk about morons running around after a piece of leather trying to hit each other. And don't forget about people loving to watch grown men bounce a ball. Our world really needs to get EMP'd. We need a back to basics in a bad way.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:21 | 5698005 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

maybe they were talking only about the russell 2000, which was surprisingly bid all day and up slightly on the week...see stocks were positive for the week.  all you need is a couple of stocks positive so they can say that every week.

 

I have lost all my patience waiting for this shit show to crack... i'm starting to believe it never will.  Watch what happens on Sunday, miraculously the greeks will vote to stay in the euro and stocks will take off on monday...cuz it was a positive surprise.  How much jawboning can be done...where the fuck is the money coming from when all these hedge funds are blowing up...

 

AM I IN THE FUCKING MATRIX

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:42 | 5698110 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

I have been saying this is all an illusion stawks will never fall atleast not untill the guy behind the ketboard no longer has a finger and the algos can read. they learned in 07 what to never let happen again. the Greeks no different than Switzerland and and Scotland!! we are the suckers who keep waiting for 1plus 1 to equal 2 which it never again will. so choose your pill and go back to sleep there is only the MATRIX

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:18 | 5698226 Wait What
Wait What's picture

would you say you're 'capitulating'?

that root is going to be my word of the day for the rest of the year.

I won't be happy until i hear every banker cry 'uncle' on everything they have believed until now.

i would have made a great soldier during the crusades, apostasy is music to my ears.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:19 | 5698007 wmbz
wmbz's picture

MSNBS and all of MSM are some sad ass sob's. I wonder do any of them relize what fucking cheerleading morons they sound like all of the time? Truth be damned!

All they are doing is reading from a script but, good lord they are lousy!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:24 | 5698027 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Not saying buy Uber but that is quite a move.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:31 | 5698388 knukles
knukles's picture

Like there are any fucking barriers to entry in the Über biz.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:13 | 5697975 adr
adr's picture

I'm going to scribble a jagged up and down line on a chart with completely random points. I'll line it up with any stock chart out there and see if anyone can tell the difference.

It's all bullshit and has no bearing on anything in the physical world.

Everything can be summed up with:

BUY STOCKS AT ANY PRICE BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO BUY STOCKS.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:18 | 5697999 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+1 for original chart porn. :)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:16 | 5697987 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

My co worker in the adjacent office is short silver and is getting more and more pissed.

He is also long crude.

LOL.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:19 | 5698000 kowalli
kowalli's picture

He is yours perfect contr-partner

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:21 | 5698008 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yell over and call him a Shitstorm Trooper!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:32 | 5698390 knukles
knukles's picture

DON'T AGGRAVATE HIM
He just might kill you.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:23 | 5698016 wmbz
wmbz's picture

He's bound to get way more pissed off'er soon!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:32 | 5698057 Blano
Blano's picture

Just make sure you know when he/she bails. Sounds like you have a gold medal contra indicator there. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:39 | 5698263 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Lend him some money, using his car a collateral!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:20 | 5698009 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

"Loonie crashed 3.65% worst week for Canadian Dollar since September 2011"

hopefully, david rosenberg got reamed (he was bullish the loonie a few years back)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 19:23 | 5698362 noben
noben's picture

Down over 20%.

All without US sanctions.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:23 | 5698015 franzpick
franzpick's picture

If you think time is just Draghing by, look at the monthly crude future and see how quickly a knife-catching game could start, at 2008's $40/bbl, or at 2003's $26, and what deep dish of cr*p will Mario serve up to try and reflate those prices:

http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:22 | 5698022 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I really don't see what everyone seems to see in the dollar...least shitiest turd in the pile? Whatever.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:55 | 5698160 explosivo
explosivo's picture

According to Jim Willie it's because derivative payouts are in dollars. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 20:02 | 5698397 knukles
knukles's picture

It's because it's the least dirty shirt in the laundry, is still wold's dominant military power and is still the common clearing currency of the globe.

All for the time being, but still is what it is.

Some things are just the way they are.
Some others, like stawks going up forever is not.

And in the meantime, only alkies and druggies are the folks who's excuse is : "Reality just isn't good enough for me."

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:23 | 5698026 Blano
Blano's picture

Slightly OT: Has there been any discussion of adding to the SPR at these levels?  I haven't seen anything. 

Yeah I know it may be too much to ask of the DC dumbasses to buy when it's cheap, but you never know. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:30 | 5698052 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Last time I heard it mentioned, someone said it is full.

Too lazy to check. (plus, I consider it immaterial)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:36 | 5698080 Blano
Blano's picture

Agree on the immaterial part. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:24 | 5698028 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Quadtrillions of DERIVATIVES denominated in USD$ creating artificial demand from their liquidation due to the drop in crude, et al..., IS NOT STRENGTH YOU MORONS! Thank you. It had to be said.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:31 | 5698058 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

It matters not, if you are short the /DX it sure feels like strength.....

 

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:36 | 5698079 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

You now know how it feels to be a whore forced to turn a trick by a pimp.

You know it's wrong, but you want to survive.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:34 | 5698070 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You mean this is just a rerun of 2008, and NOT a sign of the powerful US Economic recovery?  No way! Why would they lie to us about that?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:41 | 5698109 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

UPS missed earnings today. They blame poor domestic demand.

A miss that includes the benefit of cheaper oil prices?

Ya, believe Obozo's circus. LOL!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:38 | 5698099 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

That helps me understand it a bit better thanks.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:30 | 5698045 hotrod
hotrod's picture

I remember a long time ago when a currency needed to pay something(interest) to be valued and stored.  Oh well I guess now it is the future Promise that it might and you get some military support, oh and you can buy oil with it.

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:31 | 5698060 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

In other news, the Associated Press is beating the Ukranian war drums again, with another "rebels reject cease-fire, on the offense again" story.

http://apnews.myway.com//article/20150123/eu-ukraine-1a62f4a1c9.html

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:51 | 5698145 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

I think Victoria Newland should run for Ukrainian President.

Show us how it's done baby.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 00:48 | 5699079 August
August's picture

For her own good, Psaki needs to be killed, before she digs herself even deeper into her pit of lies.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:33 | 5698074 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

After a nice, volatile start, the 15m Russell chart post-noon featured the most bodacious display of henpecked horizontality I’ve ever seen, almost like a parent tryin’ to get the perfect baby picture (“hold it … wait ! … that’s perfect … no!  Don’t move .. now smile . . aw, c’mon!”).  It seems ‘someone’ important, likely of the hexadecimal persuasion, made damn sure we finished around Unch., near yesterday’s post-Draghi dragon-belching flame-retardant highs.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:45 | 5698126 john milton
john milton's picture

its friday.. where's the bonus chart..

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:52 | 5698149 JDFX
JDFX's picture

Psssssst !  ' King Dollar '   is still WEAKER than the Euro and has been for YEARS !

 

Long live the delusional KING !  :)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:55 | 5698157 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It shouldn't have been that hard to guess that there would be a little market sell off in the last hour - with the Grexit vote coming up. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:55 | 5698158 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

Consumption is a little lower in US, but it doesn't justify oil drop.

So this means,  either the rest of the world consumption is down or manipulation is happening.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec3_15.pdf

I'd sure like to see world consumption by country

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:14 | 5698208 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Commodity prices that you see are generally priced in advance of what is happening. Perhaps that is why they call them futures. The few spikes that you get off of news or unexpected things (such as the Saudi King dead) are the exception and those market moves are short lived.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 18:41 | 5698266 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time in a LONG time, that the USD surge was not accompanied by an AU plunge.

AU seemed to hold pretty well, given the "flight to quality".

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 20:01 | 5698399 knukles
knukles's picture

By jove, you've got it!
Right now, the best money is gold, the best fiat currency is the US.

Go figure and shit happens :) (Gallic shrug)

 

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 02:09 | 5699145 Otto Zitte
Otto Zitte's picture

Ice Nine

Do It

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 05:53 | 5699286 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

To ECBQE2 and beyond!!!!!!

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