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UPS Tumbles On Missed Earnings, Blames US Domestic Weakness

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We can only imagine how fast the narrative is being re-written as bellwether of "everything is awesome" in America, United Parcel Service missed earnings expectations and lowered guidance and is seeing its shares tumble:

  • *UPS 4Q PRELIM ADJ. EPS $1.25 , EST. $1.47
  • *UNITED PARCEL CITES UNDERPERFORMANCE OF U.S. DOMESTIC SEGMENT

Of course, we are sure that with lower fuel prices due to help them 'next' quarter... and Valentine's Day and Easter around the corner, Q1 growth will prove everything is awesome.

 

  • *UPS: DEMAND LESS THAN EXPECTED ON NON-PEAK DAYS (but everyone said Christmas was awesome)
  • *UPS SAYS OPER PROFIT WAS HURT BY HIGHER 'PEAK-RELATED' EXPENSES (but cheap gas!!)

 

And the result, shares are down over 5% in the pre-market...

 

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Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:43 | 5696088 stant
stant's picture

Dumped it last summer

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:43 | 5696090 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Did they forget to adjust the earnings ?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:52 | 5696140 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Expect big cancellations of cell phone and cable subscriptions next.

 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:59 | 5696174 ss123
ss123's picture

Wonder how amazon did? Or did FedEx have all the business?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:16 | 5696291 Oleander
Oleander's picture

We can now get Sunday delivery from Amazon. I have noticed more items arriving thru USPS. Smaller items in plastic bags that can fit in a mailbox. Boxes still go thru UPS.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:19 | 5696315 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Unless you have Prime. I had a UPS driver deliver a single sponge (HEPA filter) to me this week.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:22 | 5696322 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Wait for the selling to stop.  Then BuY IT.  QE baby.  Blows everyones skirt up.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:26 | 5696656 quintago
quintago's picture

these guys were too busy to deliver anything on time during the holidays, and now there is US weakness? Could it be that the shippers are dropping them because they are so crappy at delivering crap on time?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:00 | 5696535 Ward cleaver
Ward cleaver's picture

My son bought a soda cartridge kit thru amazon. He didn't want
it so he called amazon who said they couldn't take that item back
so just keep it and they credit him back. Great business model.
How this thing trades over $300 is amazing.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 13:50 | 5697321 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Went to ship a package last week...

 

UPS Store: $60+

Fedex: $25

I used Fedex.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:22 | 5696336 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

well USPS...you know, if there's weakness in the domestic market, how about giving us the incentive to use you for international shipment?

I go into a UPS "Store" before Christmas and they wanted $340.00 to send a box (equivalent to about 5 shoe boxes) to Xi'an China.  WTF!!  I could have bought FOUR of those boxes a round trip ticket.  

There are thousands of empty containers returning to China daily...you can't find a single one to put some packages in and charge something reasonable!!!  You forced me to use the $70 option with USPS (which I avoid at almost all costs)

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:27 | 5696652 NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

I own a couple dozen FedEx routes as an independent contractor. This peak, we saw about a 7% increase. One weird thing just happened this week though that has never happened. A number of our truck were grounded due to "lack of volume". Everyone in the terminal was calling it a "weird" week. I think it was potentially something more. It will be interesting to see what next week looks like to see if it was a trend.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:00 | 5696189 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

Cable yes...cellphone no.  Food and shelter falls before smartphones.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:58 | 5696168 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Someone in the Finance dept forgot to do the stock buyback in December...oops

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:57 | 5696518 Ward cleaver
Ward cleaver's picture

This is after they adjusted; could have been worse

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:47 | 5696113 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

Who's seeing brown now? UPS shareholders maybe.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:49 | 5696125 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

" Yes we can ! "

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:05 | 5696211 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

Look... obama said the Crisis has PASSED!!!!!! (understand?) 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:16 | 5696297 XqWretch
XqWretch's picture

Right?!!? Why wont these sheep listen!!!??!!?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:26 | 5696352 codecode
codecode's picture

He'll say later that the Repub congress broke thinngs... and then we'll have Hillary in '16...

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:12 | 5696247 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Hey, wake up UPS! The deluded liar in chief fudgepacker says the corner is turned and everything is great...

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:16 | 5696298 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

UPS is a useless dinosaur.  good riddance.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:44 | 5696094 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

UPS did not get memo... WE ARE IN RECOVERY

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:54 | 5696151 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

All that business and then some went to the US Postal Service!!!???

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:15 | 5696289 zjxn06
zjxn06's picture

UPS got more than one memo and have been delivering my ammo.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:43 | 5696096 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No problem, U.S. Taxpayer debt serf happy as usual to pick up the shortfall I'm sure.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:45 | 5696100 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

How can you fuck up parcel delivery service earnings at christmas time?

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:48 | 5696115 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

25% drop in retail this ho ho ho season

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:48 | 5696121 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

unpossible!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:49 | 5696130 the not so migh...
Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:45 | 5696111 youngman
youngman's picture

Usually peak demand is very profitable...not for UPS for some reason....like hotel rates in Davos right now...they are two or three times the normal price...UPS has to lear how to raise prices in peak times me thinks...if your the idiot who buys the Christmas gift on the 24th and wants it delivered by the 25th..you should pay for it....not the normal rates

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:52 | 5696136 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Santa claus rally in reverse, down over 8% now that's gonna leave a brown mark!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:53 | 5696142 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Damn polar vortex always fucking up the economy with its polar vortexing.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 04:28 | 5699237 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Volar Portex, the calm before the storm.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:54 | 5696145 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I would suspect from observation in my area, they added staff but the shipments didn't rise enough to cover the expense. The temp hires were not tired and in a rush, like they had been in the past, and packages came at a record speed. I literally ordered one item about 2 in the afternoon, and got it around 10 in the morning the next day. Free shipping. Other packages weren't quite as fast, but this package was delivered on Dec 23, when I would think volume should have been huge.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:06 | 5696148 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

The recovery continues as John Deere lays off a bunch of folks...
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Deere & Co. DE, +2.15% said it will place 910 employees on "indefinite layoff," from facilities in Iowa and Illinois that make agricultural equipment. The number of layoffs include 565 employees from three locations in Waterloo, Iowa, 300 from Des Moines Works in Ankeny, Iowa and 45 from Harvester Works in East Moline, Illinois. The company also said about 500 employees at its seeding and cylinder facility in Moline will go on an "extended inventory adjustment shutdown." Separately, Deere said it has hired 220 new employees at construction and forestry factories in Iowa.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:56 | 5696154 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

They seemed to be running as many trucks picking up returns after Christmas as they did before Christmas. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 09:58 | 5696167 venturen
venturen's picture

we need free shipping with the taxpayers paying for it!

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:09 | 5696232 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Recently I needed to order a box of UPS shipping labels for my store.  After several calls to god knows what part of India they literally told me they couldn't tell me why my labels hadn't shipped.  UPS couldn't ship me shipping labels.  

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:10 | 5696238 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

I sent a small box about 2 pounds to the next state via UPS - $20!!!

THAT is why US domestic volume is down for UPS.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:42 | 5696453 hotrod
hotrod's picture

AGREED.  Most things are not worth sending.  Cost more to send your daughter clothes than buying them.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:11 | 5696242 Lanka
Lanka's picture

Brick and mortar retailers are dying on the vine, replaced by ecommerce, which uses delivery services like UPS. UPS mis-management, maybe.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:13 | 5696261 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

there numbers would have been better then,  i think it is a uniform decline with both brick and morter and ecommerce. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:14 | 5696263 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Fedex has a much better 'model' for cheap packages - Fedex moves them around the country then drops them at the delivery post office so that the postmen delivery to the home. Cheaper than having a fleet of Fedex drivers do it.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:33 | 5696384 Osmium
Osmium's picture

UPS has a similar service.  It's called SurePost.

 

http://www.ups.com/content/us/en/resources/sri/umc_sp_basic_definition.html

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:16 | 5696294 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

smartpost

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:35 | 5696397 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

30 years ago i worked for ups in college, it was hard work, 11pm-3am shift, but i made $13 per hour, a great wage back then. Rutgers was only 5k/ year so I could pay part of my tuition.

Now, ups is hiring near me.  They pay $12./hr. Rutgers is 28k now.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:46 | 5696732 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

During summer at college, I worked for UPS on same shift but in downtown LA. They paid well but we humped pretty hard getting those boxres out of the big trailers. Never forget, some of the smaller boxes weighed alot on would surprise you when you tried to really throw them.  Always felt good finishing that shift, drenched in sweat and getting outta those hot containers into the early morning air.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:39 | 5696432 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Just more ammunition for the Fed to never raise rates again and keep the asset bubble alive and growing.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 10:42 | 5696458 Temerity Trader
Temerity Trader's picture

Bears are completely right, yet completely wrong. Under the old normal, the Dow would be under 10K. There is weakness everywhere. The U.S. consumer is bankrupt and buried in debt. The government can only run by adding a Trillion $ more debt every year. The party has been over for some time, but the bears keep getting their faces ripped of by the Fed money machine. Millions all over the world have not given up HOPE that the bankers are omnipotent and can print us out of any weakness. Shorts see some selling due to lousy numbers and horrible forecasts, and pile on, only to be crushed within hours. That is the plan, and the bankers have been 100% successful so far. They know if they fail, everything will quickly collapse. Every central bank will keep doing more and more QE.  But, when the day arrives that hope ends and fear overcomes greed, it will really be something to see. For now, patience…

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 12:37 | 5697003 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Nothing short of global war or anarchy will result.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:33 | 5696679 geologyguy
geologyguy's picture

Screw UPS.  Tried to send a small 2lb package from North Carolina to Minnesota and on top of the $18.75 shipping charge, the fuckers added a $1.33 fuel delivery service charge.  I asked the cashier how much the charge has been reduced given the fall in fuel prices, and she said it was the same now as it was when gas was above $4.00/gallon and that "It is based upon how far you ship the package."

fuck them.  FedEX & the USPS will get my business.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 11:39 | 5696708 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Fed ex halted? 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 12:28 | 5696960 heisenberg991
heisenberg991's picture

Bought Dr. Scholl's shoe inserts for 12 bucks and they didn't make me feet more comfortable so Amazon said to just keep them and credited me back the money. How the hell do they make any profit.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 12:56 | 5697083 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

I've always considered UPS to be a good proxy for the health of the US economy. 

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 17:54 | 5698153 monad
monad's picture

Increasingly irrelevant since they went public.

Fri, 01/23/2015 - 13:49 | 5697318 ihatebarkingdogs
ihatebarkingdogs's picture

I buy and sell parts for a low-production, special interest automobile that has a dedicated following on a forum for this particular make. UPS is "too" expensive now to make many of my car-parts deals pencil out.

The charges for the last few shipments I've made at the UPS retail walk-in store were almost twice what I expected them to be. I also asked about the "fuel surcharge" having gone down, and they didn't even know if it was still in effect.

I recently found a Fed-X retail walk-in store near me. I'll try them out for the next shipment.

UPS is too expensive. I suspect because the promises made to employees regarding benefits and pensions are very pricey, and has to be earned. UPS can't print or inflate their way out. They have to raise prices and suffer the loss of business like mine.

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