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Repeat After Us: "Correlation Isn't Causation"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

But if it walks like an idiot, and talks like an idiot...?

 

 

h/t @RudyHavenstein

 

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Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:04 | 5700728 kowalli
kowalli's picture

rofl

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:10 | 5700743 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

....and the search results were the same!

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:16 | 5700758 knukles
knukles's picture

Both led to hyper links of various photos of Paul Krugman with his cat Bubbles which under Department of Health and Hiumans Services guidelines were pulled as they were found to have caused mild paranoia on awakening building to severe disassociative disorder and intense anger by mid day followed by rages and incomprehensible angst collapsing into sorrow and uncontrollable sobbing before Ativan and Thorazine enema treatments in front of the cartoon channel in the evening 

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:22 | 5700769 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

If Krugman can have a cat named bubbles (since his rational create them), can Yellen have a dog named debt crisis?

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 21:32 | 5700935 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

An Economist is a person who will tell you that if you sit on a block of ice and set your hair on fire, on average, you should be comfortable...

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 08:39 | 5701701 Zero_Head
Zero_Head's picture

Walks and talks like an idiot?

 

I thought this article would be about Obama, or Obama voters, or maybe even about those folks who acted stupidly and didn't vote, and claimed both parties were the same.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 16:50 | 5703220 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

But if it walks like an idiot, and talks like an idiot...?

 

 

Then it must be me.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:59 | 5700883 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I can show that carrots should be outlawed since it can be easily demonstrated that everybody who eats them eventually dies......

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 08:43 | 5701704 Zero_Head
Zero_Head's picture

Air and water should be illegal also, because they are 'gateway substances', as everyone who has ever done illegal drugs first drank water and breathed air.

 

Americans truly are the dumbest people on the planet, because we watch the most TV, and soak up the most socialist jewish democrat propaganda

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:49 | 5700841 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If Correlation were responsible for Causation then we would have to blame Liberalism for our present condition.  So we can't go there.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:07 | 5700733 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This is a good representation about what’s being fed to Americans!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WTA_8waxTo&sns=em

It all gets better in the last 10 seconds.... jeez...

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:09 | 5700744 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 BT "really really" ATFH.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:13 | 5700748 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

how to put this...

the majority of economists are not necessarily idiots they are more like status quo ass kissers and stooges. those that aren't are smeared as being fringe bloggers.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:17 | 5700757 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I may be mistaken, but without the detail on the y axis the results may not be exactly what the graph indicates.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:16 | 5700759 Everyman
Everyman's picture

This HAS to be a new evolutionary step in academia:

status quo ass kissers and stooges

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:19 | 5700765 Doom and Dust
Doom and Dust's picture

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by economists who are putting us on or by idiots who really mean it.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 22:51 | 5701118 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

My ex is a financial planner. she was bragging how the long only fund she works for is based on Nobel Prize winning research about asset price. She really believes the bullshit. I envy her. Completely oblivious that a market, and with it asset price discovery, doesnt exist. But a broken clock is right twice a day. Its worse in economics because only the direction of price movements matter, never the magnitude. ie as long as yourmodel says you will make money and the ticker stays green, they think their model is correct. The economists broken clock is right 12 hrs a day,s o of course they believe it. 

None of the central bankers strike me as particularly intelligent. Watch Krugman or Yellen talk. Theyre completely clueless

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 06:33 | 5701625 Wild E Coyote
Wild E Coyote's picture

I knew Krugman when he was advising in ASEAN as an economist in 1998.

During ASEAN monetory crisis, his advice was taken by Malaysia which installed Currency control which stabilized Malaysian economy earlier than all others.

But Krugman was henceforth known as "New York Columnist". He was sidelined, ridiculed into nothing by MSM.

I think Krugman learned the hard truth that, you have to be an idiot to get a good name from Banksters in MSM.

Krugman became what he is today soon after that, Won a Nobel price, and of cause is the leading idiot economist.

Don't blame him please.  

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:41 | 5702511 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Well, perhaps the secret is to check one's clock just twice a day.

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:28 | 5700777 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

So here's the truth folks. We truthed some folks.

 I get new margin requirements last wednesday on 'NON major currency pairs' No biggie.

 Then after the markets close on Fridat N.Y. I get this 2day notice that margins are increased by a minimum of 50% on MAJOR pairs, with 48 hour notice.

 So, if these trades don't fill the margin requirements by 1-26 "Monday" they will be closed! This is Art Cashin and his CFA "non ellected" drunkards, instituting new margin requirements on the fly.

 Thank "Sum God" I was smart enough last summer to catch the ponzi CME margin rate increases.

  Story End. I took care of business, like a prudent RETAIL un`multi leveled BANKSTER!

 It AIN'T gone Bitchez!

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:37 | 5700807 blindman
blindman's picture

isn't interest a function of creative
innovation and development, a function
of demand and usefulness. interest.
.
interested (adj.) Look up interested at Dictionary.com
"motivated by self-interest," 1705; "having an interest or stake (in something);" from past participle of interest (v.).
usury (n.) Look up usury at Dictionary.com
c.1300, "practice of lending money at interest," later, at excessive rates of interest, from Medieval Latin usuria, alteration of Latin usura "payment for the use of money, interest," literally "a usage, use, enjoyment," from usus, from stem of uti (see use (v.)). From mid-15c. as "premium paid for the use of money, interest," especially "exorbitant interest."
self-interest (n.) Look up self-interest at Dictionary.com
also self interest, 1640s, from self- + interest (n.). Related: Self-interested.
[Self-interest] is a doctrine not very lofty, but clear and sure. It does not seek to attain great objects; but it attains those it aims for without too much effort. ... [It] does not produce great devotion; but it suggests little sacrifices each day; by itself it cannot make a man virtuous; but it forms a multitude of citizens who are regulated, temperate, moderate, farsighted, masters of themselves; and if it does not lead directly to virtue through the will, it brings them near to it insensibly through habits. [Alexis de Tocqueville, "Democracy in America"]
usurer (n.) Look up usurer at Dictionary.com
late 13c., "one who lends money at interest," but later especially "one who lends money at an exorbitant rate of interest," from Anglo-French usurer, Old French usurier, usureor, from Medieval Latin usurarius "money-lender, usurer," from Latin usurarius (adj.) "pertaining to interest; that pays interest," from usura (see usury).
coupon (n.) Look up coupon at Dictionary.com
1822, "certificate of interest due on a bond" (which could be cut from the bond and presented for payment), from French coupon, literally "piece cut off," from couper "to cut," from coup "a blow" (see coup). Meaning widened to "discount ticket" 1860s by British travel agent Thomas Cook. The specific advertising sense is from 1906.
COUPON. A financial term, which, together with the practice, is borrowed from France. In the United States, the certificates of State stocks drawing interest are accompanied by coupons, which are small tickets attached to the certificates. At each term when the interest falls due, one of these coupons is cut off (whence the name); and this being presented to the State treasurer or to a bank designated by him, entitles the holder to receive the interest. [Bartlett]
interest (n.) Look up interest at Dictionary.com
mid-15c., "legal claim or right; concern; benefit, advantage;" earlier interesse (late 14c.), from Anglo-French interesse "what one has a legal concern in," from Medieval Latin interesse "compensation for loss," noun use of Latin interresse "to concern, make a difference, be of importance," literally "to be between," from inter- "between" (see inter-) + esse "to be" (see essence).

Compare German Interesse, from the same Medieval Latin source. Form in English influenced 15c. by French interest "damage," from Latin interest "it is of importance, it makes a difference," third person singular present of interresse. Financial sense of "money paid for the use of money lent" (1520s) earlier was distinguished from usury (illegal under Church law) by being in reference to "compensation due from a defaulting debtor." Meaning "curiosity" is first attested 1771. Interest group is attested from 1907; interest rate by 1868.
interesting (adj.) Look up interesting at Dictionary.com
1711, "that concerns, important," from interest (v.). Meaning "so as to excite interest" is from 1768. Related: Interestingly. Euphemistic phrase interesting condition, etc., "pregnant" is from 1748.
interest (v.) Look up interest at Dictionary.com
"to cause to be interested," c.1600, earlier interesse (1560s), from the noun (see interest (n.)). Perhaps also from or influenced by interess'd, past participle of interesse.
canny (adj.) Look up canny at Dictionary.com
1630s, Scottish and northern English formation from can (v.1) in its sense of "know how to," + -y (2). "Knowing," hence, "careful." A doublet of cunning that flowed into distinct senses. Often used superciliously of Scots by their southern neighbors (and their American cousins).
The Canny Scot is so well known as scarcely to require description. He carries caution, cunning, and selfishness to excess. Deceitful when a purpose is to be accomplished, he is not habitually deceitful. One thing he never loses sight of--his own interest. But of his own interest he is not the most enlightened judge. ["The Natural History of Scotsmen," in "The Argosy," December 1865]
Related: Cannily; canniness.
.
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?allowed_in_frame=0&search=interest+&...

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:46 | 5700832 bonin006
bonin006's picture

Correlation does not guaranty causation, but causation is the leading cause of correlation.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 00:17 | 5701291 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

As a NeoPythagorean, I love that the mathematical equations for the statistical analysis of correlation and causation appear to be basically identical ... It seems that only presumptions based on common sense can tell the difference?

In my view there are NO "literal truths," ONLY relative "metaphorical truths." Human beings are dreaming with data. Our presumed axioms are the poetry of our soul, which we must rely upon. However, upon deeper critical analysis, almost all "common sense" presumptions turn out to be backwards.

I quote the mystic Emily Dickenson:

Emily's Garden

"Life is but a Strife
'Tis a bubble
'Tis a dream
And man is but a little boat
Which paddles down the stream"

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 02:24 | 5701472 bonin006
bonin006's picture

What you say about mathematical equations has wide applicability in both science/engineering, and the pseudo-science of economics. I see way too much blind reliance on equations in engineering, without a fundamental understanding of actual principles. When I design something I usually only use computerized analysis techniques such as finite element analysis to fine tune a design after it is almost done. If you don't know what to expect before you apply the equations, how can you be confident the answer from the equations makes sense? How do you know what equation to use?

You are getting too far into philosophy for me to respond to the rest of your reply without re-installing my emotion chip, which didn't go very well last time so I will pass on that.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:43 | 5703738 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

LOL!

"Emotion chips" are very problematic!

What is the unit of survival to program in to care about?

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:48 | 5700839 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Wait a minute!

 

Does this mean that the similiarties in the "comments" of viedoklis_lv and Freedom123 are just a coincidence and are not caused by their sharing a peach pit sized brain?

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 20:49 | 5700848 blindman
blindman's picture

profiting from investing money is
predicated on functioning money markets
that see a value in invested money and
investors who see a potential profit
and trust in those markets. hahahahahah.
the central banks have entirely short circuited
any such notions as they know the shit has failed
by design. ponzi nomics just does not constitute
a money system or an economic foundation, never
did and never will. they know that. it was designed
to replace slavery, the out right "owning" of humans,
for the elite by other means. it worked for a hundred
years, now what? moar?

Sat, 01/24/2015 - 21:04 | 5700894 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

3 economists went out hunting for deer.

The first economist shot slightly above the deer.

The second economist shot slightly below the deer.

The third economist shouted "We got him!"

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 00:07 | 5701275 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

One of my favourite anecdotal illustrations was that there was an inverse correlation between the number of donkeys and the number of PhD's in a state, which were then related to the amount of economic activity in that state. Therefore, shooting the donkeys should boost the economy, right?

(Who cares about intermediate variables anyway!)

Rhetoric is US.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 01:28 | 5701417 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

Therein lies a PhD thesis in Economics (with a minor in Political Science).

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 02:59 | 5701510 darteaus
darteaus's picture

"If it walks like an idiot, and it talks like an idiot..."
It's a liberal.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 14:51 | 5702806 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Eventually, you won't find a single person on the planet who admits to having been an economist.  Seeing enough of their colleagues hanging from gibbets in the public areas will scare them silent.

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