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Today Athens, Tomorrow Madrid

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The picture that Brussels' bureaucrats are most afraid of...

 

While Alexis Tsipras name (and face) are now well known, we suspect few are yet fully aware of Pablo Iglesias, general secretary of Spain's left-wing Podemos party...

Winds of democratic change are blowing in Europe.

 

The change in Greece is called Syriza, in Spain it’s called Podemos.

 


 

The Hope is coming.

 

Hasta La Victoria. SYRIZA – PODEMOS … Venceremos! ” (Until victory – We will win!“

*  *  *

 

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Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:49 | 5703752 Comte de Saint ...
Comte de Saint Germain's picture

Bullshit

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:50 | 5703758 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Europe is toast. Would you like some feta cheese with that?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:51 | 5703767 Comte de Saint ...
Comte de Saint Germain's picture

Greeks and Spaniards are lazy asses.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:55 | 5703793 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

So that means it would be a bad idea to loan them money, right??

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:57 | 5703801 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Only if you aren't planning on swooping in and taking possession of all of their property.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:04 | 5703828 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

this Greek Drama is getting better and better !

is this Games of Thrones Euro version ? Where are the Wolfs and Dragons BITCHEZ

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:47 | 5703994 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuck the EU.
      -Official US Policy

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:00 | 5704048 man of Wool
man of Wool's picture

You mean rule the EU.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:24 | 5704348 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

It's the same thing, here in America...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:47 | 5704413 strannick
strannick's picture

Lazy Greeks and Spaniards? Whats worse than unelected Brussels bureaucrats?

They're bureaucrats. They're unelected and they're Belgian Euro Weenies

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 04:44 | 5705279 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

A Greek, a Spaniard and a Merkel walk into a Brussels Bar --- 

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 04:57 | 5705287 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

No need to fuck the EU, they are doing a great job fucking themselves by following the USA like a poodle.  They should restart trade with Russia, move products, that will create jobs.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:02 | 5704050 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

And tomorrow Tsipras receives a coupon for a free flight on Air Malaysia to a wonderful Indian Ocean resort.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:27 | 5704357 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

If you don't like Syriza, the 3rdin line is (for now) Golden Down...

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 01:15 | 5705074 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Great Fruedian slip ...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:49 | 5703998 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Davos

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 02:52 | 5705188 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Oh hai there! 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:14 | 5703857 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If you wanted to "own" someone, would be easier to confront them with weapons, or loan them money you know they can't pay back. Its the way the mob and loan sharks have always worked. The gun to the head is the last phase.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:24 | 5704146 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

We all know that is the plan do we not?  Bankrupt the world and buy it all up for pennies? 

House of friggin disguised Windsor, old frigging moldy crap, baby diddling minons, bought politicians, Rothschilds, Italian and European aristicracy...man oh man these guys all got scared like quaking children when PEOPLE objected to the

Tsars...threatened.  This is where they are at right now.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:58 | 5703806 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The fun part will be figuring out which banks are still solvent,

  and for how long.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:36 | 5703945 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Just speculating  but stands to reason this is why Euro QE was announced does it not?

 

"Just keep bailing out the banks as all the countries peel away."

 

If true that says to me you get a massive inflation "but the euro's are still worth something" because what is the alternative?

 

Not sure I would want to be in Europe right now if that's the case though.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:01 | 5704057 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

How can you have inflation when none of the money reaches the consumer economy?  Just like with Qe here in the US all you can do is keep certain asset and commodity prices from experiencing deflation, at the cost of grining the economy to a halt.  QE is anti-money velocity.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:22 | 5704335 Help Is Not Coming
Help Is Not Coming's picture

I totally agree. Even the Fed did somehow manage to get the money to the consumers the smart people would take that money, pay off all of their debts and if there was any left over buy hard assets like gold or silver and increase the deflation. The non-smart people would simple rush out and spend it and immediately spark hyperinflation.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:45 | 5703985 FrankieGoesToHo...
FrankieGoesToHollywood's picture

Solvent? lol.

Just becasue greece may announce they will not pay back loans, which cant be paid back anyway, doesnt change the solvency of a bank. insolvent is insolvent.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:13 | 5704313 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

tell that to the new york banks that survived the 2008 crisis. it's all about timing. 

solvency is not solvency. it's about when the music stops, and your insolvency becomes a 'default'.

 

mark twain said it, ---he went broke very slowly and then all at once.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:47 | 5703987 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And the bad part for the Greeks will be when they return to the Draghme and when they’re confronted by a 60 to 70% devaluation overnight because wages won’t be able to catch up in the first 2 to 3 years.

And that might spart a bit of furry....

And after watching the election interviews none of them realizes it and sees the Draghme as the salvation...

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:29 | 5704368 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

At least that way, when they would fuck up, it would be their own decision, and fault...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:46 | 5703988 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And the bad part for the Greeks will be when they return to the Draghme and when they’re confronted by a 60 to 70% devaluation overnight because wages won’t be able to catch up in the first 2 to 3 years.

And that might spart a bit of furry....

And after watching the election interviews none of them realizes it and sees the Draghme as the salvation...

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:30 | 5704161 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Well if they really wanted to give the finger to the banks maybe they should consider backing their money supply with tanglible assets such as......silver? 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:38 | 5704406 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The Greek gold is gone! They have nothing to back it up with!

 

SO: NATIONAL CONFISCATIONS LIKE VENEZUELA WILL FOLLOW!

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:23 | 5704340 noben
noben's picture

True. In that case it's not a smart thing to do, especially if you're one of the smartest investment Banksters like Goldman Sachs.

Of course, as ZH and its bloggers have indicated, the only way to hedge such a high risk proposition, is to plant your ex-execs into key high level banking positions in the EU. As GS has done.

'Organized crime' in everything but official name.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:59 | 5703811 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"We lazy? No! We resting!" —Mr. Panos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvl9N9GdraQ

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:09 | 5703841 modric
modric's picture

Here in Australia it is not the Greeks who are the lazy asses

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:25 | 5703896 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Sure, but why not let them succeed or fail on their own? Why force slow failure by diktat? Let's see how this experiment turns out......

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:51 | 5703773 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Just what they needed, more pan flute playing leftists.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:58 | 5703809 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Geez, guess the CIA was so busy with the Ukraine, they forgot to marshall whatever neo-nazis there are in Greece to take over the government.  It'll be fascinating to see how the deep state responds to this.  Or maybe Victoria Nuland's sentiments about the EU reflected the deep state's attitude...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:24 | 5703898 XqWretch
XqWretch's picture

The real news here is how much of the vote Golden Dawn received. When your government is arresting members of a political party for bullshit charges you know, THAT is the party you need to be voting for!

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:56 | 5703792 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Fuck yeah.  Shit storm is here.  Tomorrow, if  Yellen says they are going to print more I'll crap my pants.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:35 | 5703942 red1chief
red1chief's picture

You are safe for tomorrow, but not that much longer.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:48 | 5703997 km4
km4's picture

RT @rustyrockets What do the Greeks know about democracy anyway?

Retweet488  Favorite705

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:50 | 5703762 modric
modric's picture

Hurrah. The communists are coming to save us all.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:53 | 5703782 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

They can't screw things up much worse than they already are and I consider this just throwing sand in the gears of a dysfunctional government machine.....

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:07 | 5703838 modric
modric's picture

I echo the 2nd sentiment but laugh at the first.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:12 | 5703854 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

my thoughts exactly, modric, "can't screw it up much worse" are famous last words.  

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:22 | 5704129 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

No, the famous last words are "it can't get any worse". there's always room for more worse but at certain point everything disintegrates and entropy wins...again....

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:55 | 5703786 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

It's too late for the people of Greece and Spain; they never tried real capitaism in the first place.

But it's never too late to send a big FU to the ECB and Brussells...

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:00 | 5703819 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Surely it's no coincidence a big FU immediately follows a big EU?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:31 | 5703922 modric
modric's picture

Can Pool Shark and all those who upvoted him explain to me why it is "too late for the people of Greece and Spain".

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:40 | 5703961 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The whole euro thing looks like a scam followed by a set up ("the troika.")

Doesn't look like the money is any good anymore...so what is the value of the benefit check?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:51 | 5704013 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Kindling

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:59 | 5704040 bonin006
bonin006's picture

I upvoted him for the second line.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:04 | 5704224 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Gladly, modric:

There are currently some countries whose culture has devolved to the "government owes me a living" mentality. They also rely wholly on the government to protect them from all perceived ills. The government is the 'be all, and end all' of their daily lives.

Greece and Spain are two such countries. Under their current cultures, they could never accept true capitalism. There are so many who have been conditioned to rely directly on government, that they could never fend for themselves.

True free enterprise capitalism (in the classical sense of the term) means that everyone pulls their weight, or they rely on their family, or private/clerical charity, or they starve. The government plays referee to make sure everyone plays fair; provides for the common defense; and provides only those functions which private citizens cannot provide for themselves (note: these do not include free housing, food, clothing, or healthcare).

The Greek government and its people borrowed huge amounts of money and lived far beyond their means (whether this was due to corrupt government officials and/or lazy, selfish citizens accepting government largess, makes no difference). The fact remains, they cannot pay the ECB back.

Most of the faut lies with the idiotic officials at the ECB who voluntarily lent money to a country they should have known was a deadbeat.

This is akin to lending $500 to your drunk, loser brother-in law to buy a car; then getting upset after he crashes the car and spends all his money on booze and can't pay you back. Lesson: don't lend money to irresponsible people.

When I say it's too late for Greece and Spain; I'm saying it's too late for them to adopt free enterprise capitalism absent revolution, war, slaughter, and mass exterminations.

 

Unfortunately, I fear the USA (which once upon a time, but not lately, practiced free enterprise capitalism) is close to collapsing into the same culture...

 

[PS: If you don't think culture matters from an economic standpoint; explain how Germany lost two of the biggest wars of the 20th century and is still the strongest economy (by far) in the EU...]

 

 

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:06 | 5704505 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

+ 25,000 to Pool Shark for this.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:39 | 5703956 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

Another hard on for the -ists. Lazy stuff.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:28 | 5704364 noben
noben's picture

Even wrecking balls and bulldozers have a useful and needed purpose.

We can only hope that this is the case for Greece also.

They desperately need to get the yoke of GS and EU Banksters off their necks.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:51 | 5703765 discopimp
discopimp's picture

And it all (the heist of Eurpoe) would have gone perferctly if it weren't for those meddeling kids!!

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:52 | 5703769 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

Italy, Portgual, Iceland are queueing ...., like the bank run

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:55 | 5703787 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Iceland already backed out formally.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:53 | 5703783 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

The open jacket proof positive, he is currently not in possession of a nail-gun.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:20 | 5703875 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

He probably just left it in the trunk of his Mercedes.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:56 | 5703789 explosivo
explosivo's picture

It's cute that people think slaves can vote their way to freedom. 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 18:58 | 5703802 goldhedge
goldhedge's picture

Go for it Greece.  Tell the EU to fuck off.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:07 | 5703813 homebody
homebody's picture

Party on - we will never pay the bill says Greece

 

edit - just checked our collective wallet - we can't pay our bill either

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:03 | 5703823 grunk
grunk's picture

Pee standing up.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:19 | 5703860 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

Spanish general elections come later this year, the anti austerity party is in the lead there too. Big changes coming.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:19 | 5703874 kwatinhu
kwatinhu's picture

Hey. don't know how far it's gonna go but at least they are trying to do something to stand up to the banksters and force their hand. It's called ACTION. Something all the carpers and complainers who tap out their faux outrage on comment pages of web sites could learn something from. No body reads your shit except like minded whiners like yourselves. We should be encouraging these brave young rebels and be glad the shit storm is WAY over there.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:30 | 5703925 red1chief
red1chief's picture

Good point. The public is in support of someone who might effect banker change, much more than any left wing agenda.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:12 | 5704088 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Well, they will be getting marxism up the ass.  I hope it's a better alternative.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:14 | 5704537 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Unfettered, immoral, crony capitalism leads to Marxism. And Marx predicted so.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:22 | 5703879 me or you
me or you's picture

Any chance that Germany ends US military occupation?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:27 | 5703907 red1chief
red1chief's picture

No, not for at least a generation.  The situation is also complicated by a banker occupation, one in which powerful German elites have been complicit in.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:42 | 5703960 will ling
will ling's picture

not just yet. but, grandma merkel must be quiverin' a bit. hope the german smarts start measurin' up to the touts.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:32 | 5703931 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

One of the richest (Swiss) said "FUCK THIS" and saw what was coming and got a divorce.

The poorest DITTO.

Iceland, "No thanks".

The UK will pay their multi-billion euro bill and then quit (what do you expect from dopey Cameron?).

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:38 | 5703949 Cymore Duttz
Cymore Duttz's picture

"Pee standng up"

 

Aren't the Leftist the people who started that anti-standing to pee movement?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:38 | 5703950 Cymore Duttz
Cymore Duttz's picture

"Pee standng up"

 

Aren't the Leftist the people who started that anti-standing to pee movement?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:52 | 5704018 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

All the money i've saved by refusing to accompany my missus to the USSof A ( well not really , New York ) i'm going to spend in Greece. Just to say my little, THANK YOU!

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 19:54 | 5704022 22winmag
22winmag's picture

The Tea Party has been riddled with spies and paid off.

 

These anti-austerity parties will be too. 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:04 | 5704061 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

I see cheap feta cheese on russian shelves shortly.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:10 | 5704081 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

"Venceremos" says it all.  Been a commie term for about 4 decades....so this is their salvation from the Euro socialists and bankers -- communism?  ROFL.  This is gonna get good.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:40 | 5704213 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

Since Greece is the topic of the day, please permit me to repeat myself:

The story of Greece is a tragicomedy of farcical proportions:

1. The EU political dirigistes installed the Euro "common currency" as their next step in the political unification of Europe.  This was a development for political reasons, as a means of uniting the people of the various nations in thinking as Europeans first and not as citizens of their own countries.  Economists and financial experts were hardly consulted.

2.  Bankers looked upon the unified Euro zone as a tacit guarantee that the European Central Bank would guarantee all debts by all Euro zone governments, and started lending at the same rate to all Euro nations at basically the same rate they would charge to the most credit-worthy.

3. Politicians in the PIIGS gloried in promising social benefits and economic development funded by borrowed money.  Their voters lapped it up like hungry cats.  This all amounted to a credit-fueled political and economic drunken binge.  Greece even splurged on the Athens Olympics on borrowed money.  The bankers of Germany and France were only too happy to supply the money like booze sellers sell champagne for a party.

4. France and (especially) Germany liked the Euro system because it made it easy to sell their wares to the PIIGS who now could buy with the money they could borrow at low interest rates.  German and French industries made piles of money from sales to the PIIGS- mostly recycled money lent to the PIIGS by French and German banks.

5.  In the USA, the Federal Reserve accelerated monetary expansion via low interest rates, from about 1990 on, to the point that central bank interest rates are now near Zero (ZIRP), to keep the great financial house of cards/Ponzi Scheme going.  The Clinton Administration in the US completed Financial Deregulation (begun under Reagan) by cancelling Glass-Steagall, legalizing Citibank and sending Wall Street on its financialization binge that ended with the collapse of 2008.  Central banks then doubled down on monetary expansion to plaster over the financial collapse by pushing down interest rates and printing more money.

6. In 2009-2010, Europe caught the contagion from the US meltdown and it became all too clear that the PIIGS could never pay off the money they had borrowed as Euro members. Bankers in France and Germany panicked and called on Merkel, the EC commissioners Barsot and Von Rumpot ("the Honchos") to save the banks.  The Honchos forced the Greeks to accept a "bailout" of their debt by the "Troika" - the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Union (IMF, ECB and EU).  The "bailout" money went to the French and German banks in exchange for the Greek bonds they were holding.  The bonds went to the Troika.  Some have been passed off to sucker "investors".  The Greek people still owed the money and were expected to pay off the bonds, with interest.  Ditto in the rest of the PIIGS but Iceland rejected the idea of a "bailout", and the Iceland government said to the bankers: "You created the mess, you own it." 

7.  Austerity was imposed on the Greeks to prevent the government from spending money on social programs, medical care, etc., and thus to ensure that more of the Greek government budget would be applied to paying off the bonds.  Ditto in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland.

8.  The people do not like austerity.  They don't like sleeping on the streets and having no jobs or medical care.  Good thing they are so undernourished or they would be more effective in rioting. But they tend to vote for politicians that promise to repudiate austerity and debt repayment. 

9. In the attempt to sell the idea that the EU economy has been "recovering" from the 2009-2010 meltdown, the ECB and EU nation central banks adopted ZIRP (and even NIRP - negative interest rates on bank deposits), and bond buyers bought into the financial fairy tales by bidding up new bond issues in the Club Med countries and pushing down interest rates on their sovereign bond issues to ridiculously low rates (as if there were absolutely no chance of default or haircuts).  The ECB's Saint Draghi encouraged the bond buyers by saying the ECB would do "Whatever it takes" to re-inflate the EU economy, implicitly stating that the debt-fueled binge would continue.  "Whatever it takes" has now been enacted at ECB QE in which the ECB allows each EU nation's central bank to buy sovereign and corporate bonds - in effect handing each of them a Euro printing press.  This does not cure any of the EU's ills, but allows the governments to continue to fund budget over-runs, social programs, subsidies, and expense account binges, while the stock markets and elite feast on the QE.  

10.  When the risk of "Grexit" reappeared the Germans said there was now no risk to German banks from a Greek default.  Why?  Because the German banks have sold off their Greek bonds to the Troika.

11. Auntie Merkel is dead set against any further help for Greece.  This is rich since Germany reaped huge rewards selling manufactured goods to Greece, paid for with money borrowed from German and French banks.  Now that the German banks are safe from their reckless lending practices, she can refuse further aid to Greece. 

12.  The EU has not recovered from the 2009-2010 recession, and is sliding further into depression.  A Grexit or bond default may still shake the European financial world and New York and London's City may catch the contagion this time, so everyone is trying to whistle past the graveyard. 

13.  The sanctions/counter-sanctions game between the US/EU and Russia is a very risky game for the EU since it cuts the EU off from (what was) its fastest-growing export market, and Russian firms still owe many $Billions to Western financial institutions.  Russia is also the supplier of about 30% of the oil and natural gas used by the EU, and those supplies might suffer major disruptions if the Ukraine pipelines were disrupted or if Russia cut off supplies in response to an escalation of the financial war against Russia.  The EU has no quick way to replace natural gas supplies from Russia.  If Russia feigns a "hiccup" (a hint that it will default on payments on debts to Western financial institutions and cut off gas and oil exports to the EU), expect Wall Street, London City, Juncker, and the ECB to have nervous breakdowns. 

14. Russia and Gazprom have shaken the EC by redirecting South Stream to Turkey and announcing that the gas now going through Ukraine will be shut off and redirected to Turkey once Turk Stream is built.  If the EU wants the gas, it will have to connect to the new gas hub at the turk/Greek border.  Russia has now mischievously informed Greece that Russia will cancel its sanctions against Greek food exports if Greece leaves the EU.  The supercilious Masters of the Universe (in their own minds) in Brussels continue to drink their own bathwater and sniff their own farts, insisting that THEY will dictate to Russia, Greece, Turkey and everyone else how the future will unfold according to THEIR plans and directions.

15. The idea of a gas hub at the Turk/Greek border and the cutoff of all the gas pipelines through Ukraine is an invitation to Greece to tell the EU that if it wants access to the gas from Russia, it will have to write off the bailout debt and pay hefty transit fees for the gas.  Turkey must have the same idea about profiting from gas price surcharges and transit fees.  

16.  Syriza's policy of cancelling austerity and increasing government spending is a dreamy left fantasy - unworkable unless it can find some new source of sugar-daddy funding. The first thing the Troika will do is cut off funding and credit to all the ATMs in Greece.  Maybe Greece will print new Drachmas, backed by kalamari.  Perhaps China and Russia could be persuaded to ante up cash in return for some islands or military bases.

17. If Syriza succeeds in getting Greece's debts written off, and austerity lifted, that will encourage those who want the same in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy.  This means that the Troika must frustrate Syriza at all costs. 

 

 

18. What strategy should the EU leaders adopt?  Depends?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:11 | 5704527 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Excellent synopsis. Congrats !

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:48 | 5704668 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

Seriously good. Even I can understand it.

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 06:34 | 5705347 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

an excellent recap, but I disagree with many of the finer points (this, too, is a repeat originally done to your same list)

it's interesting how this myth is reaching mythical proportions: "1. The EU political dirigistes installed the Euro "common currency" as their next step in the political unification of Europe.  This was a development for political reasons, as a means of uniting the people of the various nations in thinking as Europeans first and not as citizens of their own countries.  Economists and financial experts were hardly consulted. "

the "EU political dirigistes" would not be able to set up such a plan. the EUR was set up for external reasons: the impending currency war between West and East

what happened is that the "EU federalists" thought it would making political unification easier. and they are among the biggest critics of the EUR, now

this is about as strange as true about the neo-corporativists that are seen as the promoters of the EUR. look around, megabankers looking for fresh victims in the FX arena aren't fond of the EUR

no european takes this "thinking as European first and as citizen of their own country second" seriously. except some (mostly British) socialists, I guess

and "Economists and financial experts were hardly consulted" smacks me of butthurtness of the financialists that would prefer to have all the FX crosses to play with

"2.  Bankers looked upon the unified Euro zone as a tacit guarantee that the European Central Bank would guarantee all debts by all Euro zone governments, and started lending at the same rate to all Euro nations at basically the same rate they would charge to the most credit-worthy. "

and here you have it: bankers lent freely, expecting politicians to pay with taxpayer money later whatever mess they would create. isn't that a tune you heard before? note that lending standards weren't part of any EU or EUR based "thing". here the fundamentalist pro-free-market crowd should be just ashamed and admit that markets did not care or even think, they just wanted to make a fast megabuck, and they did, also thanks to the help of The Vampire Squid Firmly Attached To The Face Of Humanity and the corruption in the Greek government

one item that is constantly forgotten: three quarters of the Greek debt - through the bailouts - is now in the hands of a handful of EU countries, which do not ask for any interest until 2023

"16.  Syriza's policy of cancelling austerity and increasing government spending is a dreamy left fantasy - unworkable unless it can find some new source of sugar-daddy funding. The first thing the Troika will do is cut off funding and credit to all the ATMs in Greece.  Maybe Greece will print new Drachmas, backed by kalamari.  Perhaps China and Russia could be persuaded to ante up cash in return for some islands or military bases."

that's the point, isn't it? if you want to spend more then what you make, you have to find a creditor, because it means you are getting in debt. But Tsipras is talking about re-shifting Greek budget focus away from the IMF's targets to a more social-focused spending, not about new debt. and a restructuring of the old debt

"17. If Syriza succeeds in getting Greece's debts written off, and austerity lifted, that will encourage those who want the same in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy.  This means that the Troika must frustrate Syriza at all costs. "

apples and oranges. Tsipras can meet in one room some 5 Prime Minister collegues - his main creditors - and make a deal about three quarters of the old debt. in fact, Tsipras is now soon one of the "EuroCrats" himself, and his vote in the EU Council counts. He represents Greece, one of the EU countries that wants to stay in the EU and in the eurozone

Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy have their debt on the markets. a completely different situation versus creditors. "contagion" is a word banksters are fond of. the same ones that hate the EUR and aren't that fond of the EU, too, particularly if based in London and facing such things as how to get around the EU Banker Bonus Cap or the EU drive on reducing banking to a facility

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 11:55 | 5706216 gallistic
gallistic's picture

Al Tinfoil and Ghordo,

That was some excellent commentary and discussion from both of you; it is great to see. I am aware that this story has been superseded by many others by now and is "old news" for posting, but as a spectator looking on from the cheap seats, I will speak to the empty room anyway and throw out some off-the-cuff comments on the comments.

Point 1-  Whether it was the "dirigistes seeking political unification of Europe", or whether "it was set up for the impending currency war between West and East" (what nations exactly?), it does seem to be a fine point. Regardless of the reason for the creation of the EUR, the currency and financial framework is a reality and it exists. Maybe I am being dense, but as far as I can see, the reason why it came to be is peripheral and does not seem to affect the current situation materially.

Point-2-  Al nailed it and stated it plainly-"Bankers looked upon the unified Euro zone as a tacit guarantee that the European Central Bank would guarantee all debts by all Euro zone governments, and started lending at the same rate to all Euro nations at basically the same rate they would charge to the most credit-worthy."

Ghordo's rejoinder is an excellent point to consider for the "free-market" theologians on ZH. It is tiresome to see many here to hold up "free markets" as a panacea, while lamenting the "loss" of a concept that does not exist and wailing for something that will likely never exist. It is the exact equivalent of socialists or any other dogmatic ideologue holding up their conception of things as Utopia.

Point 16-  I think you both agree that it is not "new debt" you are talking about, it is about "restructuring" or even renouncing the old debt.

Point 17-  Al wrote- "If Syriza succeeds in getting Greece's debts written off, and austerity lifted, that will encourage those who want the same in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy.  This means that the Troika must frustrate Syriza at all costs." For what it is worth, I agree completely. The fact that 5 PMs can speak for 3/4 of the debt means very little.

Even with the "restructuring" that took place (to ensure the debt remained), and the "generous concessions" of no interest payments until 2023 (which essentially served the same purpose) the adversarial mentality will take over, and economic leverage will be used to break the will of the Greek people and government. We have seen that be the case up to this day. Why would it change now?

Of course, we all know the true question that remains is whether the Greeks will summon the courage and fortitude to truly default and face up to the inevitable consequences of their action. The consequences of that for Europe are difficult to completely divine beforehand, but are very unpleasant to say the least, so it is reasonable to believe that all available pressure will be brought to bear, regardless of whether it is Prime Ministers, the IMF, or institutional investors on the other side of the Greek table.

I will not go off on a tangent right now to demonstrate this, but there are many historical precedents where "uncooperative" governments have deliberately been made to feel enormous economic pain, and the nation's economy obliterated by design, so as to usher in a more "acceptable" government that will er...*ahem*... see things in another way. I personally think it is very likely this will happen in Greece if Syriza sticks to their unreasonable guns.

Interesting times lie ahead.

+1 to both, thank you for the discussion guys; good stuff!

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 20:52 | 5704253 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Life, indeed, is a bowl of cherries when you (bankers) always get your way; this will be interesting...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:20 | 5704329 delacroix
delacroix's picture

didn't greece buy some german subs with the first bailout$ ?

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 21:19 | 5704330 Bangalore Torpedo
Bangalore Torpedo's picture

That "wind" you feel are the PIIGS flapping in the breeze after they are forcefully removed from the Huns' teat...OR not!  Pay me now or pay me later, they will go tits up just like any other debtor nation.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:49 | 5704673 SmokinMonkey
SmokinMonkey's picture

If you want your Syriza, you can keep your Syriza

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 03:54 | 5705244 mog
mog's picture

In Britain the party name is UKIP.

Pray God the Brits have the sense and guts to vote for it. They get the chance in May.

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 08:16 | 5705483 Dajd45
Dajd45's picture

Amen to that and yes, the only way to get our freedom, sovereignty and a real democracy progressing again. Coupled with a more realistic economic ability and less of a need to 'feed' the EU, and better directed and frugal foreign aid. 

Today Athens, tomorrow Madrid and maybe next week Paris?!!

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 05:01 | 5705292 CHX
CHX's picture

The headwind for the idealistic EU project are strengthening considerably. The Euro has seen better days too. Will the ECB QE be the death of the Euro? Lot's of fuel for big fires out there as we go into month 2 of 2015.

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 06:14 | 5705335 wildbad
wildbad's picture

right on..merkel and co are killing themselves to do (fuck the EU) washingtons grand game bidding.  they are cutting their own throats for what?  a misconcieved ukrainecantric mistake.  fuck NATO i say.  fuck the euro and all globalist attempts to put square pegs in their round holes

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 09:04 | 5705597 localizer
localizer's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_ele...

It's true - even if Podemos don't win the majority they have already broken the duopoly and will be a major force in the next elections. Look at the chart - it took them one year (!!!) to go from 0% to 25%...

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 12:09 | 5706317 gallistic
gallistic's picture

Pablo Iglesias has been making a lot of people look very foolish in face to face political debate. It is enormously entertaining to see "respectable" politicians having their undeserved, pretentious reputations smashed and their political/ideological bullshit and platitudes dismembered in real time.

Of course, this does not necessarily mean that he or his movement will be successful or effective in government, but Iglesias injects a sorely needed measure of sanity in the political discourse of Spain, and the entrenched powers are terrified of him. I personally believe that the breaking up of the duopoly has been a very good thing, and would like to see that in other places.

Maybe the United States could learn a thing or two from Spain...

 

 

 

BTW, "Hasta la victoria siempre, venceremos!" is a famous phrase from an indomitable man who has been thoroughly vilified in the US.

Mon, 01/26/2015 - 13:07 | 5706717 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

I hope old man Rockefeller lives long enough to see the EU fall apart.

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