European Analogy Of The Day: Greek F-16 Crashes In Spain During NATO Training

As the political and financial markets await the contagion from Greece to Spain, this happened:

• *GREEK F-16 FIGHTER CRASHES AT AIR BASE IN ALBACETE, SPAIN
• *GREEK F16 FIGHTER JET CRASHES IN SPAIN DURING TESTS: MUNDO
• *TWO PILOTS KILLED, AT LEAST 10 HURT IN SPAIN F-16 CRASH: MUNDO

As Bloomberg reports,

Greek F-16 fighter jet crashed at Los Llanos air base in Albacete, Spain, a spokeswoman for Spanish Defense Ministry said.

Pilot was taking part in NATO training course: spokeswoman

Ministry cannot yet comment on possible victims of crash: spokeswoman

Crash occurred at ~2.30pm CET: spokeswoman

*  *  *

Accidente en la base aérea de Los Llanos, en Albacete. Parece ser q se ha estrellado un F16 griego. pic.twitter.com/eXHZVZ8pN7

— Ángeles Moya (@mangelesmoya) January 26, 2015

Sure @HAFspokesman can provide info as soon as they know something, bad things is that close to airfield. #TLP pic.twitter.com/uXDaHERfsA

— Alvaro Munoz-Aycuens (@Alvarito) January 26, 2015

Bad news from #Spain #BREAKING: Greek #NATO F16 plane crash #Albacete, see pic pic.twitter.com/hfMaBBqxhO

— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) January 26, 2015

Comments

[Doubleguns]

Was the pilot a greek banker on his weekend reserve duty? Have they found any nails in the cockpit ashes. 

[RaceToTheBottom]

Who knew that gold stashed in one side of the plane would cause it to crash?

[Termin8or]

Don't worry,  the US Taxpayers will send a replacement ASAP

[giovanni_f]

...and by this send a message of strength to Putin.

[astoriajoe]

Have they classified the ATC reports yet?

[RaceToTheBottom]

Apparently the black boxes are located in 5000 ft of ocean....

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

NATO GENERAL PHILATIO MANLOVE: F-16 SHOT DOWN BY PRO-RUSSIAN CATALAN SEPARATISTS

[IridiumRebel]

UNLEASH THE TROLL BRIGADE!

[winflation]

lmfao

[Joenobody12]

LOL, with Airforce like that , who needs Russia. May be Putin can equip his airforce with camcorda to record the comic relieve of NATO airforce flying instead of air to air missiles. 

[Max Steel]

Today I saw n american on Quora claiming US can win a nuke war against Russia . Moreover he claimed US can destroy 75% of russian active warheads effectively in case of war . Haha ! I love such armchair generals .

[ExpendableOne]

Saying you can win a nuclear war and then actually trying it are two really good indications of psycohsis.

[silvermail]

Russian officials informed Putin, that the US can destroy 75% of russian active warheads effectively in case of war.

[it aint paranoi...]

To win, hit Wasington, DC only.  I say we take off and nuke the entire site, its the only way to be sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

Maybe New York, too.

[Max Steel]

Actively deployed  warheads 

US : 1,642   RUSSIA : 1,643 .

[Paveway IV]

"...Moreover he claimed US can destroy 75% of russian active warheads effectively in case of war..."

That sounds about right - any Russian military commander would agree. Sorry silvermain, but Putin would agree as well. Nuclear war is not like baseball statistics. 75% interception is a perfectly acceptable loss rate when (in the case of Russia) you have 5,000+ nuclear warheads ready to go. I could easily believe they are even more conservative than that in their estimates for nuclear warhead survival. Note that this statistic does not apply to the hundreds of the most powerful modern warheads like those in a Topol-M. Their decoys and capability to perform evasive maneuvers on re-entry make them far more survivable - there's little ABM technology the U.S. has existing or deployed to counter them. Which doesn't bother me in the least because I don't believe Russia would preemptively strike the U.S. for any reason. 

I'll do the math for the still skeptical: In the event of a nuclear war, Russia figures about 1,250 nuclear warheads will NOT be intercepted or destroyed and WILL hit their intended targets. Most of their most powerful warheads will be in that 1,250. They planned their nuclear armament strategy appropriately by massively overbuilding, just like the U.S. They don't (and never did) need 5,000 warheads to reach their targets. I don't even figure they would need more than a hundred to effectively 'destroy' the U.S. or at least make it an unpleasant place to live. A Topol-M can carry a single 800 kiloton warhead or up to six smaller warheads with decoys. Two or three Topol-Ms 'getting through' would cause the U.S. to sink into chaos for a decade. Russia has over a hundred Topol-Ms and we don't know where half of them are.

Russia did not build their nuclear arsenals to WIN any war. Their primary purpose has always been deterrent - to guarantee that the U.S. would never consider using theirs first in a preemptive strike. Long ago, that was the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal as well. The current crop of psychopaths? Who knows... 

[BraveSirRobin]

The US does not have the capability to "intercept" russian re-entry vehicles. The US can intercept bombers and crusie missiles if on a high enough alert status... but the balistic missiles, maybe some patriot batteries could get some, again, if properly deployed and on high enough alert status. In theory, it should be possible to destroy stored warheads not on a delivery system rather easily, perhaps even with conventional weapons. But once someone starts knocking off your nukes, by whatever means, things could get real nasty real fast. And as Paveway says above, even if 500 warheads reach "counter value" targets, that is, US cities, the gig us up for the US because every city larger than Fort Myers, FLA gets blown up. 

The US has a "Counter Force" doctrine for us of nuclear weapons. The idea is that they attack military installations, HQ's, naval and air bases, arms factories, etc. Seeing how many of these are located in high density urban centers, there may not in fact be a whole lot of difference, but US systems use smaller more accurate warheads which, again in theory, will cause less collateral damage to "value" targets, such as urban population centers. 

I guess you have to plan to fight a nuclear war in order to have to not actually fight one... Dr. Stangelove, you are needed at the office.

I do disagree with Paveway a little in that the nuclear forces are soley for deterence. I think this is not true. They are also there for intimidation to help maintain and spread your empire. Russia and the US can get away with a lot under their respective nuclear umbrellas, especially against those that do not have their own.

[Max Steel]

I'm sharing his analysis (  he calls it authentic because usgov sources claims so ) . Share your thoughts everyone :

1.) HOW US WILL WIN A NUCLEAR WAR AGAINST RUSSIA ( His name is Dan Holliday : http://www.quora.com/Dan-Holliday )

 The Russian nuclear forces are dependent upon her ICBM's.  Her boomer subs and air force wouldn't get much launched (her bombers wouldn't make it to American airspace and her max of two deployed nuke boomers are trailed at all times by at least one American and one other NATO attack sub -- they'd never make it to launch depth).  But that doesn't matter.  Even if only the two modern MIRV equipped ICBMs work (the very advanced, RS-24 Yars; and the reasonably advanced RT-2UTTKh Topol-M), that would be a total of about 125 ICBM's.  (trust that the aging RT-2pms, UR-100Ns and R-36 still have some bite).

All things considered, that means that the minimal (stress on the "minimal") strike would look something like this:

• There are approximately 40-50 RS ICBMs. Each has between 4-8 warheads, with between 100-300kt explosive blast each warhead.  Assume the average -- 6 MIRVs at 150kt blast each (7x Nagasaki), would mean 270 strikes. 
• There are approximately 80 RT-2UTTKh ICBMs.  Each has only one warhead, but at a devastating 800kt. (40x Nagasaki), total of 80 strikes.

The total number of warhead blasts in the US would be no less than 350 nuclear strikes (that's NO LESS than, but highly likely much higher when older warheads are added in).  Even if only 350 nuclear strikes occurred, and only 100 highly important targets were selected (doubling or trippling up on important locations), easily the top 80 largest cities (every major metro area) + the 20 most important military targets were struck, the US would be wiped off the face of the map.  The entire nation would end.  Most people would be dead in six months due to disease and starvation.   If ONLY the Russians struck (with no retaliation from the US), humanity might survive such an attack.
===Total yield: 3,500 times Nagasaki (this excludes many other older nukes that, if they worked appropriately, would push this number way beyond 10,000 times Nagasaki).  

The American strike would be more thorough both for Russia and possibly for humanity.  The US's nuclear triad (ICBMs, Air Force and Navy) would have more successful launches due to the larger nature of the American forces and the more modern equipment.   The Ballistic Missile Submarines (boomers) would do the trick, 14 total with nukes, seven deployed at any given time.  They're beyond deadly.  Their nuclear payloads capable of being launched in under 30 minutes.  

• Each Ohio Class boomer has 24 Trident II SLBM that are MIRV'ed with between 6-8 W76 110kt nuclear warhead (5.5 times Nagasaki).  Even if we went with the average (7 warheads), that's 1,176 nuclear strikes from the Ohio Class nuclear payload. 
• The US also operates 450 Minuteman III ICBMs that are MIRV'ed with 3 nuclear warheads (in the process if not concluded, the downgrade to 1 MIRV each).  The exact type of warhead is classified, but the warheads are either the W78 or W87, with no less than 300kt of explosive yield (15x Nagasaki).  That's a total maximum of 1,350 nuclear warheads, minimum of 450.

The total number of blasts would be insane, no less than 2,526.  We haven't even counted any Air Force method, presuming that the Russians could/would destroy them in flight.  Nevertheless, even if strikes were doubled and/or tripled up on cities, it would mean that no less than 1,000 locations would be wiped out by more than one (some with three or four) nuclear blasts.  The destruction would be absolute.  
===Total yield: no less than 30,000 times Nagasaki 

2.) How many Nukes can US stop coming from Russia

 That information is completely classified for VERY good reasons.  But suffice it to say the answer is likely two things:

• Sufficient to make the Russians uneasy.
• Insufficient to neutralize MAD (mutually assured destruction).

Beyond that, you will NEVER get a great answer outside of the very highest echelons of the US defense establishment.  The prime reason is this, let's just say the US could effectively intercept 1,000 nuclear missiles before they reach the mainland.  This completely destabilizes the MAD arrangement and gives legitimacy to the Russian anger at the missile shield.  There's an implicit agreement by our strategic defense systems that essentially states, "We can hurt each other sufficiently, so there's no reason to engage in an arms race to the point of bankrupting both of our nations and plunging the earth into a 7 year night."  

The Russians have good cause to be annoyed by this system.  They aren't "factually right" or "morally right" at all.  They are simply correct in their fear that they'll be rendered impotent against an American nuclear attack; that the unspoken arrangement of mutual annihilation would then be gone; yet another sign that Mother Russia is in decline.  If the US could neutralize 1,000 Russian ICBM's, the fact is, an entire Russian nuclear assault is gone and the US has single, first strike capacity against the Motherland.

That's because of a few well known facts on the ground:

• Nuclear weapons have incredibly high dud-rates.  This is why multiple MIRV's are targeted at cities. 
• The Russian stockpile is the oldest of any major power and the dud-rate increases precipitously.  We can conclude that somewhere between 30-50% will be duds.  This means that the Russians need to double up on every target.
• Russian nuclear "boomers" are trailed by American, French and British hunter subs.  The Russians keep one or two boomers out at any time.  They cannot escape the NATO boomers.  Their subs would not launch all missiles before the NATO attack subs destroyed them. 
• The Russian fleet is rusting and decaying. 
• The Russian airforce has next to ZERO chance of getting their bombers or fast attack aircraft to the Homeland (bypassing Canadian and American missiles and fighters).
• This means that the Russian attack on the US is reliant upon it's ICBM's which are MORE than sufficient to do the job, regardless of how aging it is.  

—With just 500 launch vehicles (which is the full maximum extent of Russian launch capacity) with 8 MIRV's each (which is conservative), the Russians could land 4,000 nuclear warheads on the USA.  Even if only 1,500 of them make their target, that's enough to end the nation forever and certainly enough to make the US rethink any nuclear attack EVEN if the American attack would result in a more thorough destruction of Russia (say, 3,500 American nukes vs. 1,500 Russian nukes -- dead is dead).   

But, if the US possesses a very reliable intercept capacity, and can launch 1,000 of them at the ICBM's before the MIRVs separate, they could potentially knock out a sizable portion of the fleet.  Accounting for the dud-rate and other factors, if 75% of the remaining Russian ICBM's were prevented from destroying their targets (375 nukes make it), then the US has essentially neutralized the Russian attack, while having freedom to use its incredibly advanced submarine fleet and ICBM's to annihilate Russia totally while ensuring that SOMETHING of America survives (375 Russian nukes destroy the US, but something of the nation survives; 3,500 American nukes ensure complete Russian annihilation).

This arrangement cannot be tolerated by Russia EVEN while we all know that 375 Russian nukes are plenty to scare any American politician into never striking Russia.  The PARITY of destruction is what buys Russian security, not "kind of destroyed".   A missile defense shield -- if really good - wipes out the entire cornerstone of countering the American threat.  The US isn't a ravaging corsair intent on plunging humanity into nuclear winter -- such an attack would harm the USA even if the Russian nukes failed to reach their target -- but it doesn't give the Russians comfort.  

So, the US cannot allow reliable figures to be released on how successful its intercepts are.  Such information would surely prompt the Russians to double-down on their nuclear deterrence and we'd be in a WMD race again.
 

[Bollixed]

Well, given all of the above it's obvious the Russians just need 19 arabs with box cutters to get the job done. Because believing the US could actually accomplish such a defense against incoming missles relies on a belief that is not substantiated by past performance, but only by wishful thinking.

All that academic chest beating is just that. It's a fantasy version of what some hope would happen regarding US military prowess. So personally, I don't buy into any of that scenario. I do however, support Mike Tyson's contention. Because THAT has a long standing history of being correct.

[MrPalladium]

You forgot to mention that the U.S. nuclear subs are followed by Russian attack subs, 24-7-360

Don't count on all those nuclear subs being able to strike their targets.

[Max Steel]

He has a flawed logic . 

US LATEST AEGIS BMD IS A BOONDOGGLE TOO AGAINST RUSSIANS AND CHINKS :

 https://kauilapele.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/about-the-aegis-gordon-duffj...

 http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/DF-41ChinasanswertotheUSBMDefforts_Arjun...

[silvermail]

Do not tell me please. No one in the US, does not know and can not determine where the Russian submarines right now. Because the US military simply can not hear them. Therefore, the US military called Russian submarines "Black Holes".

[HowdyDoody]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C9T_FdZxHHI/U9NHnpg4CTI/AAAAAAABSy0/WlMLfFlPIn...

[silvermail]

When Putin said that Russia has a weapon that can surprise the West, he was not joking.
In case of war, the United States will lose all of their satellite constellations in a few minutes. Russian satellites killers already have In orbit. It's just a bucket of explosives and damaging elements. At a signal from the ground, they will all be blown up. On the orbit of the earth, there will be nothing, - only a lot of space debris.
---
Moreover, Sakharov, long ago created a weapon directed underwater explosion. These weapons could be used before, even in the Soviet Union time.  The underwater nuclear explosion generates a wave height of 11 kilometers. One such wave will go to the coast of the United States. And the second such a wave will go to the coast of the United States on the other hand.
Nobody in the world does not know where those nukes and how many them.
They just lie on the ocean floor in the form of large containers and waiting encrypted signal to activate them.
Furthermore, they wait signal outage. If the control signal has not been received for a long time, it mean that Russia was attacked by nuclear weapons. This means that all systems of nuclear retaliation should work independently - in automatic mode.

http://otvet.imgsmail.ru/download/0c8e449b7779579cfd25a50acec8fc8f_h-114...

[pods]

Crash?  Looks like it caught fire in the parking lot.

pods

[Lostinfortwalton]

Looks like it crashed on the airbase itself; some training airplanes on the flight line appear to be engulfed by flames as well. Pray the pilot(s) were able to eject in time.

[zen0]

There is something extremely suspicious about that. My first reaction would be that the plane did not "crash" at all, but exploded on the flightline. Something is amiss here unless the pilot was involved in a celebratory fly-by in an area he should not have been in and screwed up.

[Prober]

The Greeks did not pay the fuel bill.

[IridiumRebel]

Something I'm sure you know well.
Say hi to your mom for me. She still has my Pearl Jam T-shirt.

[Prober]

I am sure that your reply is very witty to you, but I don't see it.

I do feel a barely detectable amount of pity for you, because you are genetically and culturally inferior and condemned to a life of mediocrity, failure, envy, resentmemt and bitterness.

[sam i am]

It's a warning to Greece.  If Greeks don't obey, US-NATO backed Maydan is coming.

[IANAE]

<= Analogy

<= Metaphor

[Overflow-admin]

<= Metaphor

<= Allegory

Enhanced for you.

[GFORCE]

http://otdon.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/europe-behind-lines.html

[NoWayJose]

Just reinforces the Syriza plan to bring all Greek troops back onto Greek soil.

[Racer]

Why were the Greeks spending a LOT of money on flying the thing in the first place??

[Bill of Rights]

This just in! White house Drone shoots down Greek F-16

Developing!

[lakecity55]

Greek Drone Invades WH Grounds!

[WTFUD]

The Russians must be trembling at the competence of ZATO, JA,DA?

[Tracerfan]

Shouldn't Greek jets be in Greece defending Greece?

And why are Portuguese military craft flying in the Baltic Sea?

I know the answer and it is not good.

[Emergency Ward]

If they are in NATO and the EU, they'll end up sending their pilots to bomb North Africa for the good of Brussels.

[Consuelo]

Where are those new, bright & shiny F-35's...?   You know - the one that looks like a pregnant bug...?

[lakecity55]

Condolences to the families of the Pilots and other victims.

[falak pema]

the rain in spain...

[Thisisbullishright]

Did it "crash" while sitting on the flight line because it sure looks like it's on the flight line to me!!

Is this yet another warning to ANYONE that if you even THINK about straying away from the central banks you will get wacked?!

[SheepDog-One]

Was the pilot wearing a tie?

[Soul Glow]

Ironic.

[Mike Honcho]

US Intel wire: put out an APB for the Red Baron.

[DiogenesTheCynic]

Was he trying to hit the German embassy?

[czarangelus]

You know, this whole thing is assholes.

Greeks are not Germans. Greeks are not Swiss. Greeks will never be Germans or Swiss and don't want to be German or Swiss. So why not just let them? They want a backwards second world socialist utopia that defaults on its debts once every 20 years - come on, they've been through this cycle enough times that how can we not admit that's what they want? They're just like Argentina in that respect.

So let them have it. Why did Germany think they could go in and turn Monkey Europe into Germany? They aren't and don't want to be; let them cheat idiot investors out of their speculative bets every twenty years and it's nobody elses' business.

[Catalonia]

Monkey Europe your mother

[shovelhead]

I believe the preferred nomenclature is Simiano-European.

[Overflow-admin]

Which one of the central banks lowered the floor? Greece, Spain, or Europe?

N.B. Radars are not like markets! Y U NO mess with the radar settings!

[venturen]

Greek F-16 in Spain mainly fall on the plains!

[noben]

The plane is Spain
crashed mainly in the plain.

[youngman]

I bet it was sitting next to a German plane and tried to blow it up....to send a signal...

[it aint paranoi...]

Looking at the picture on the left, yeah, pods is probably right.  In an F-16 "crash", they often auger in like lawn darts, and are not as likely to land on it's wheels.  One engine only and all, and not the best glide ratio (if I got the right term).

Seems to be a tarmac fire; the plane was burning on the ground before/ after launch.

Krugman is calling for 25 more to burn, to stimulate the economy, broken window style.

[WTFUD]

Well we had a lot of luck on Venus
We also had a ball on Mars. . . .

Come on, come on , come on
Let's go Space Truckin'

That's DEEP.

[firefightergr]

Respect for the dead would be nice.

[Salsipuedes]

Buy the dip?

[shovelhead]

Greek pilot...

Paid someone off to get his rating?

Just kidding.

My condolences to all affected by this tragedy.

[djsmps]

10 dead, 13 hurt is the latest news

[me or you]

Meanwhile in France.: French National Front Founder Jean-Marie Le Pen Injured in House Fire

[HowdyDoody]

The aircraft crashed during takeoff. The pilot is supposed to have performed a "wrong manoeuvre during takeoff". It crashed into the aircraft hard standing.

[dexter_morgan]

Happened during NATO exercises......are they still in NATO? Maybe NATO is sending their own message........

[WTFUD]

Shoulda gone to the Saudi's for flying lessons.

[Karl von Bahnhof]

Newsflash:
New commie Greek government just attacked Spain!

Obama and whorever is current puppet in Brussels will have TV address to folks tonight

[Debugas]

pilots were celebrating SYRIZA win

[dexter_morgan]

ouzo hangovers are a bitch......

[Lostinfortwalton]

Ten killed including the two pilots, thirteen more injured with seven of those being serious. The (single-engine) airplane reportedly experienced an engine failure just after breaking ground on take-off.

[dexter_morgan]

foreshadowing of things to come for Greece?

[dexter_morgan]

Where is the new 'leader' of Greece - should be throwing flowers around here, not there?

[bid the soldier...]

let's see

Analogy Of The Day: Greek F-16 Crashes

The only analogy I can think of is when some guy in one of the 'Godfather" films wakes up with the severed head of his prize race horse in his bed.