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Saxo Bank: The Syriza Victory Is A Disaster For Europe
Submitted by Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com,
- Greece in reality has little choice: Comply with the Troika or leave the EUR
- Syriza's win is a disaster but at the end of day, Greece did what we expected them to do
- Greece needs to pay EUR 22.3 billion in principal and interest on various loans
The result was worse than expected whatever the final outcome - the anti-austerity vote is massive, but it could be an empty gesture as Greece in reality has little choice: Comply with the Troika or leave the EUR. I doubt the later will happen with the same vote as the Greeks are tired of austerity but not off being European.
EUR/USD is down 55 ticks as I write, at 1.1145. I expect Greek stock market will be down 5% tomorrow and that Europe overall could be down 2% unless Germany, the ECB and EU comes out supporting a move towards some compromise (which is unlikely this week)
Game theory dictates that some solution will be found which is sub-optimal for all parties, but the risk it will take longer than market have nerves for.
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Syriza did better than expected - making negative reaction more likely
Syriza did better than even the polls suggested - the gap to ND is 10% as I write this, and for the market this is a close call as Syriza may get a mandate to rule alone. (Greek election: Syriza Party set to take power - Source Sky)
It's a disaster for "austerity" and common sense, but at the end of day, Greece did what we expected them to do: Desperation forced the voters into the arms of a left-wing government who's rhetoric reminds me of my youth (many decades ago) in the the 1970s: Comrades, capitalism, imperialism is some of the words I heard on TV interview this evening. It makes makes one smile: "What goes around, comes around".
Syriza's gaining power is a disaster for austerity and common sense. Photo: Thinkstock
The answer to the market reaction lies in a very different place: most of debt has changed hands since this crisis started from local European banks to EU and ECB through mainly the European Financial Stability Facility, Greece needs to pay EUR 22.3 billion in principal and interest on various loans - a tidy sum as it equals pretty much what what the government pays its state employees (Source: New York times, Nomura and IMF)
The creditors are even interesting: Greece is scheduled to pay the ECB EUR8 bn, with EUR7.6 bn of that coming due in July/August (Let us assume there is some kind of deal no later than June due to this fact!)
Who owns Greek debt?
The (rough) break down of creditors should a Grexit happen is like this: (Source: MacroPolis)
ESM: EUR145 bn in loans. The ESM is by far the largest creditor of Greece. We have "socialised" the risk from bank balance sheets to the tax payers of Europe. It's also the most favorable (to Greece) in terms.IMF: EUR20.1 bnECB: It has more than EUR55 bn accumulated under the SMP program.
The market will be waiting for the creditors to comment before it makes a big move
It's the German, EU and ECB reaction to tonight result which will rule the market. Greece lost its independence during the peak of the crisis. A debt to GDP of 175% and rising makes anything they do without getting debt relief futile.
This link shows the pain: Greek debt clock
The FT is already running a headline which reads: "Will Syriza's Tsipras turn out to be a Lula or a Chavez?"
I don't know of course, but what I do know is this:
Europe has had first major sea change politically going the the extremes. I am sure many party leaders in election prone countries: Denmark, UK first and foremost have taken notice.
- Greece needs to find a lot of money or a compromise before end of June, otherwise ECB is losing face and that can not happen!
Its so much easier to take decisions on other people money, but this time, there are no new pockets to move the "obligation" to:
SNB ran out of time to react week before last, ECB ran out of promises and reacted last week, this week Greece ran out of time (and patience) - next?
The ECB/ESM and EU needs to take decision: Something politicians and systems overall rarely does well.
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The Market Reaction So Far:
There remains a consensus that “things will be ok...” but the early comments indicate the positioning is already starting:
“It is clear that Greece will remain dependent on support and it’s also clear that this aid will be provided only when it is in an aid program,” said Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said in an interview with television broadcaster ARD. (WSJ)
A message on U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron ’s usual Twitter account, meanwhile, warned that the Greek result will “increase economic uncertainty across Europe.” (WSJ)
French president Francois Hollande hopes for close cooperation between Greece and France following Syriza's win in Sunday's elections in Athens. (AFP)
Germany's opposition Left Party l called the Syriza victory a "sign of hope for a new start in Europe." (The Telegraph)
Belgium’s finance minister said there is room for negotiation with Syriza. Johan Van Overtveldt said on the eve of a Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting that “we can talk modalities, we can talk debt restructuring, but the cornerstone that Greece must respect the rules of monetary union that must stay as it is.” (The Telegraph)
Spain’s anti-austerity party Podemos hailed Syriza win with a dig at Germany. (The Telegraph)
Carl Bildt, the country's former prime minister and foreign minister, said: "Syriza in Greece has won the election by promising that taxpayers in other Euro counties will pay even more to them. Rather daring." (The Telegraph)
Ms Merkel has so been quiet and we need to see what Eurozone finance ministers come up with at their meeting later today.
Strategy:
Market reaction will move like the tide on comments from different vested interest from now on
Greece's position is clear: They were given mandate to “ignore austerity”.
IMF and ECB stance is clear – there is room for talks on maturity and terms but none on substance and doubts about repayment
The EU, being the political animal it is, will look for compromises and short cuts, but at the end of the day this process is running out of time there are no new “pockets” to move the problem to anymore.
Greece needs a haircut anyone can see that – getting it and executing it is probably the biggest single challenge. Unlike what we are trained to believe often there are NO solutions to a lot of the problems we face – that’s the real conclusion on last night election result.
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Why postpone the inevitable?
Ask Rattenfänger von Hameln.
We are so fucking interconnected and over-leveraged that anything that happens for any reason is bad for the whole world. Especially if it was unplanned.
No gyro for you........
what did SNB know and when did they know it?
I marked you up b/c I think what you're saying is generally true, however - to be fair and God knows I hate that - since Greek elections are not run by Diebold I doubt anyone would have known the election outcome ahead of time. I think the SNB just made a good prediction here.
In a banking industry that relies on insider trading, money laundering, and criminal front-running, giving them credit for using some actual foresight does seem a little out of place I'll grant you.
EUR 22.3 billion in principal and interest
that's less than 15 days of draghi bucks from his new printing press, what's the big deal??
"that's less than 15 days of draghi bucks"
That's freakin' funny.....That's why bankruptcy exists, and soverign or not, they can't pay'
Go Greeks, Iceland turned out fine & so will you.
that's why draghoon announced his trillion euro print-a-thon before the Greek elections, he knows the grexit is coming and probably followed by others so he told the fanksters "don't worry, all your loses are covered"
Answer,
JRobby:
"Postpone the inevitable" because the only way to balance debt insanities is with death insanities. Money is measurement backed by murder, as the most abstract form of private property being claims backed by coercions. The current situation is due to the exponential growth of thousands of years of social pyramid systems based on being able to back up lies with violence first developed by War Kings to create sovereign states, then pushed to become more sophisticated by the Fraud Kings, controlling the powers of governments, through applying the methods of organized crime in the political processes, to result in the currently established systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence.
The entire economic system is based on ENFORCED FRAUDS. There is nothing else that actually exists than the dynamic equilibria of different systems of organized lies operating robberies, which have become more sophisticated forms of debt slavery. There is NOTHING else than different levels of organized crime & controlled opposition. The excessive social success of those systems of organized crime and controlled opposition has driven the debt slavery numbers to become debt insanities, which threaten to provoke death insanities.
The ability to "grow the economy" was based on privately controlled banks being able to create the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts, in order to "pay" for strip-mining the planet's natural resources. The DEEPER problems behind the situation in Greece, which is merely one of the leading edges of the overall BIG PROBLEM, is that there are not enough natural resources left to continue to be able to strip-mine at an exponentially accelerating rate. Everything built on the basis of the promise of endless "economic growth" was built on being able to "postpone the inevitable."
Factors beyond human control are going to force the development of different systems of human, industrial and natural ecologies to be selected. Ideally, those should be better done by human beings making greater use of information, to enable higher consciousness, so that the human systems of artificial selection are able to better operate within the infinitely bigger natural selection systems. HOWEVER, the actually established systems are organized crime and controlled opposition. Therefore, one expects articles like the one above from Saxo Bank to continue to promote the biggest bullies' bullshit social stories about "the market," which continue to deliberately ignore the overall environmental ecologies, because the established systems were based on being able to successfully back up lies with violence, WITHIN the context of that society.
The "common sense" views expressed by Saxo Bank are, of course, based on taking for granted that the established systems are NOT integrated sets of organized crime & controlled opposition, as well as NOT understanding any of the deeper reasons for how and why that is the actually existing situation.
The statement that "often there are NO solutions to a lot of the problems we face" does not look at the BIGGER PICTURE that natural selection routinely commensurates the apparently incommensurables. There ARE "solutions," just NONE within the frame of reference of the established systems of political economy based on being able to successfully continue to enforce frauds, while maintaining attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance, which take that for granted, as NOT being the case.
The BIG PICTURE has been progress in science and technology, discovering relatively more truths about natural laws, which continued to be channeled through social pyramid systems based on being able to back up lies with violence, which require most people to maintain attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance towards the ways that their society as a whole has become more and more criminally insane, because a civilization controlled by enforced frauds, which simultaneously gets pumped up and UP by relatively more objective truths in the forms of progress in science and technology, is driving itself MAD, as in MAD Money As Debt, backed by MAD Mutual Assured Destruction.
The globalized dominate civilization, based on enforced frauds that strip-mines the planet, will ALWAYS do whatever it can to "postpone the inevitable," which will ALWAYS make the inevitable final consequences become even more criminally insane. However, given that the there is nothing else which is publicly significant than systems of organized crime and controlled opposition, there does not appear to be anything else which could realistically happen than the established forms of criminal human civilization, along with their controlled opposition, continuing to operate on the basis of the maximum possible deceits and frauds.
THE BASIC BACKGROUND PROBLEM BEHIND HUMAN BEINGS UNDERSTANDING NATURAL LAWS BETTER IS THAT THEY DELIBERATELY DO NOT WANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ONLY CONNECTION BETWEEN HUMAN LAWS AND NATURAL LAWS IS THE ABILITY TO BACK UP LIES WITH VIOLENCE.
Doing that automatically is making all of the problems get worse and WORSE, but there is nothing within those systems which can provide any genuine solutions, because there is no way for enough radical truths to manifest through the political processes, since doing so would require enough people understanding how and why governments have ended up being the biggest form of organized crime controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals.
The reactionary revolutionaries who have become the new government of Greece are surely going to intensify the problems for the Greek oligarchs, as well as all other oligarchs running the globalized systems of enforced frauds. However, the new government of Greece is actually struggling the best it can to STAY INSIDE of the overall systems, since what it proposes as its bogus "solutions" are to endeavour to be able to do that.
REALISTIC BIG PICTURE RESOLUTIONS would take a series of profound intellectual scientific revolutions, in order for enough to people to understand enough ... HOWEVER, there are no good grounds to believe that could happen, since doing so would require overcoming the deeply embedded use of false fundamental dichotomies and related impossible ideals, as the ways to perceive political problems, and therefore, to base suggested bogus "solutions" upon.
In fact, human beings necessarily operate as entropic pumps of energy flows, and civilization has developed to do that through the biggest bullies' bullshit language, which is as backwards as it can possibly be to the relatively more objective facts regarding what has really been happening. (Hence, the standard concept of "entropy" has been inverted, while almost everyone takes that for granted, and so on, through every other level of society dominated by the biggest bullies' bullshit world view.) Since the established systems are one bracketed combination of ORGANIZED CRIME AND CONTROLLED OPPOSITION, which are based on operating enforced frauds, the only genuine solutions would require enough radical truth to face those basic facts, and then NOT collapse back to bullshit "solutions," based on the same old-impossible ideals, that propose stopping that from being the case, since that is the same as asserting that we should stop human beings from being entropic pumps of energy.
What is theoretically POSSIBLE is to change the ways that we perceive our problems, which requires going through the looking glass of our Bizarro Mirror World. HOWEVER, that is practically impossible since thousands of years of human civilization was always based on being able to successfully back up lies with violence, and therefore, everyone who is relatively "successful" with the established systems of organized crime and controlled opposition are so because they were the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who could personally adapt to operate "best" within systems fundamentally based on enforced frauds, which are are the basic answers to the question regarding "Why postpone the inevitable?"
Its a victory for dignity and freedom.
"Its a victory for dignity and freedom."
And Putin too! Greece, literally, has a Communist at the helm. I expect a state visit and show of solidarity between Russia and Greece in short order.
It will be like the wino sharing the bottle under the bridge.
[quote]...the Greeks are tired of austerity but not off being European.
[/quote]
Translation: The Greeks are tired of begging for more Ouzo, but not of being drunk!
time to buy Europe now Steen come out with this....why should they reneg on debt when they overspent. left wing press love this guy. if he was from a right wing party - imagine how well received he would be from the press..bot !!!...i do note most people fascinated about his lack of tie rather than his policies....
kessguv,
You called that one.
Journo who know nothing about the debts or numbers can chat forever about how meaningful it is to not wear a tie.
As a commentator in the article mentions, it is amazing that the Greeks have expectations of stiffing the creditors who they expect to loan them more money. If some political actor can convince a country of that then the population deserves the outcome.
They were given a mandate to crush the system that is killing them. Back to the Drachma and on to the rest of Europe to a smashing of Western hegenomy hubris.
It is not an outside system that is crushing the Greeks. It is the compounded stupidity of 50 years of the Greek system that is crushing them. Greece joined the EU to allow the EU to fund an extension of the Greek system.
The reason that Greece will not want to leave the EU is that they would lose the "normal" EU subsidies they have been getting. IF ECB or some EU financing entity will not make more cash available from loans and the EU subsidy cash transfers are lost, Greece will not have funding to actually produce the drachmas they want to start using.
Now they have elected a bag of even larger fantasies to lead the country.
Total BS. France and Germany well up at close. What a waste of time writing a column like that. Yes, Greece has a real choice. I'll be surprised if they fold and run tucked-tailed back to Germany.
Perhaps Greece will happily become a part of Russia. Then Greece will not have the expense of creating worthless drachma. Just use worthless ruble for their trade.
"the Syriza victory is a disaster for us banker pieces of shit..."
there, fiixed for you assholes...
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
... and a victory for Europeans themselves, when freed from US Banksters.
Yep that was my first thought. They tried the Eurozone scheme, it isn't working. Time to move on; sooner better than later.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11366613/How-the-Eur...
It's known as redistribution of wealth, or The New Feudal World Order.
Good Time to think more about risk management....
Read here my second post on Risk management:http://prudentvalueinvestor.blogspot.com/2015/01/risk-management-part-2....
Can't you pay Google to push your wares? I immediately don't want to read what you have to say. Just me I guess?
And everyone else who despises attention whores.
I suggest Greece copies the west.
Oops .. forgot the last step.
Unpeg from the Euro before said fiat returns home.
Re-peg to the new Rubble-Yuan Currency.
They could just show up with a suitcase full of IOUs...that's as good as money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSXbgfKFWg
They are good for it
You forgot the first step. Confiscate all euro denominated assets in the middle of the night. Then swap one for one on the Drachma, then devaluate 99%
Be easier to adopt the Zimbabwe Dollar, buy a 100 trillion ZD on Ebay for $9.00 and be home free.
Guys ... thanks for all the good input. I think together we have written Syrika's very first economic game plan.
mint one trillion of fiat coin- hand over to EU and ask for change..any questions?
You forgot:
--> Then go hyperinflation Venezuela style.
Snowplows look funny on garbage trucks, but when a storm is coming, you do what you have to do.
QE looks funny on the (non-fiscally united) Eurozone, but when a storm is coming (signaled by Syriza's victory), you do what you have to do.
Garbage trucks don't simultaneously emit snow out of the back in an effort to boost velocity, though.
They don't emit garbage either, yet we seem to be drowning in it!
The Syriza Victory Is A Disaster for Europe.
Which Europe is that? The bankers’ Europe or the people’s Europe?
another banker scum tying to straddle the wire.
The banker's collecitvist utopia of course. Apparently you're not European unless you're in the EU:
"... the Greeks are tired of austerity but not off being European."
Fuck you Steen and fuck your bank. I hope that one day you'll have to sell access to your arse to finance a trip to the dentist you fuck.
What arrogant stupidity to suggest that Greece would be less European in leaving the Eurozone slavery for the freer status of the UK and Denmark. The ultimate statement of European freedom is to leave the German slavemasters' EU altogether.
BOTH! (given that one already has the other in a stranglehold)
What Syriza has done is to return the favor.
It's a MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD World!
The global financial mafia mechanisms were mobilized one more time to spread the fear across the eurozone:
'Austerity' is of utmost importance to the criminal central bankstering cartel!
in reality banksters hate austerity
austerity isn't sexy as it doesn't allow them to expand the money supply
new debt is much sexier
everyone knows this by now
I'd say it's more of a love/hate relationship.
Sure they hate not being able to expand the money supply, but that's why they love austerity, which secures the mandate to print.
"Cry Uncle!"
Has any austerity actually been implemented? Haven't been following it closely but as far as I know there has been little or no downsizing of the Greek bureaucracy at all in the last 5 years.
I have the impression that the "austerity" has been pretty much all talk. Plenty policy promises and good intentions but when it comes to action, I think we're still waiting. Please let me know if I am mistaken about this.
Extend and Pretend. Same as it ever was.
People are dying of starvation, half the schools have closed, most people have no "health care" -- try visiting the place rather than having "impressions".
It tells a lot how Saxo is positioned.
getting to be zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz time. i've had enough gyros...
The EU and the CB's HAS TO assume that Greece will cave and go along with whatever plan they want but Greece might disagree, especially since the EU is in full bully mode and the Greeks are stubborn as hell. If this is still active come June things will get unstable in the markets. Fun for the entire family.....
Didn't everyone say the exact same thing like five or six years ago?
Why doesn't the whole EU go full-tard commie and get it over with. Heck, they have already gone full-tard Keynesian so they are already more than half way there...
hey mr. banker (who does NOT have to deal with the real risk of loaning money anymore, because it simply comes out of thin fucking air and not from existing savings or capital), go fuck yourself.
One should always be polite, until it's time not to be polite.
Polite like US military grunts to reporters: Go fuck yourself, PLEASE.
Greece has borrowed ' money that doesn't exist ' and therefore should be entitled to ' make belief payments '.
FUCK THE E.Useless
Translation: the people don't know what is good for them, investors do.
The point of view displayed there is 100% in support of markets and government control. Vultures with no regard for ethics.
"markets"... LOL.
Yes, apparently if Greece does not conform they will be removed from europe.
Who knew the banks have such pull.
"Skin me if you must but please, Brer Fox, DON'T throw me into thet there briar patch!"
If you read the article you would know that banks now have little exposure to Greece. Greece already screwed the banks on the last haircut deal.
Now Greece will attempt to make the Government Banks - Central Banks and ECB - look like fools because they accumulated Greek Lie-O-U paper. Nonpayment will put the governments who made these decisions the targets for removal. The transfer has been from all of Europe to Greece. If that transfer stops the Greeks will suffer for decades being proud to have a picture of a Greek on the paper used for ass wiping.
IF Greece joins Russia then the ass wiping paper will have a Putin picture.
The fallacy was expecting Greeks not to be Greeks.
Greece can simply walk away and saxo bank will suck it up i mean will have to write-off bad debt and truely A LOT of it
hehehe
Damn, right on the heels of the Swiss rug-yank too. It's been a bad bad month for Suxo Bank. For some reason I can't stop giggling.
hey steen go f*uck yourself.
It is time for the EU 99% to stick two fingers up at the Troika. The feudal barons who are mostly psychopaths, have no concerns about the suffering caused by austerity. As agents of the corporatocracy, western politicians are bought and paid for, and simply do as they are told by the banksters. It is time for the overthrow of the whole western banking cartel.
Suxo Bank, well, just plain suxz....
The usual headline "Everything is about to break but nothing is going to break"
Not paying back the loans will be terrible for Greece.
Their economy will crater, there will be no jobs,They will be outcasts like Iceland, People wondering where their next meal will come from .....
Wait, what?
"Comply with the Troika or leave the EUR"
Well, the Troika will maintain it's grip till it is thrown out of Greece, do that and the Greek EU story is over. All that is left is to count the carnage in the banking sector.
I think it is all too clear that banks are too powerful, have too much political influence, control central banking, and are an entity that needs to be bitch slapped down into the dirt. Only when their dead weight is lifted can a real economy begin to grow again.
If you have bonds, if you own stock, if you work at a bank, all your shit should collapse. We can then build social utility banks. We do not live to serve banks, the banks are utilites WE allow to exist via financial laws. Problem came when Bankers took over politicians. The US cognress for example is wholly owned by Banks. That is the heart of the evil that rots our nation.
Would founding fathers allow such a banker controlled fake deomocracy? NO. So why do we?
@ I think it is all too clear that banks are too powerful, have too much political influence, control central banking, and are an entity that needs to be bitch slapped down into the dirt.
Exactly, Jack. “It comes down to this. If you hate war, oppose the Fed. If you hate violations of your liberties, oppose the Fed. If you want to restrain despotism, restrain the Fed. If you want to secure freedom for yourself and your descendants, abolish the Fed.” – Lew Rockwell, "Restoring the Republic: Foreign Policy and Civil Liberties," on June 6, 2008, in Reston, Virginia.
The Greek vote was a vote against the bankers. It’s the bankers stealing the money. The Germans aren’t attacking eastern Ukraine; the Germans aren’t attacking Russia. It’s the same enemy of the people as in World War II. It’s the Bolsheviks. It’s the banker wave that creates wars and it’s the banker wave that targets sovereign countries and it’s the banker wave that steals the money…for world conquest.
The sad position of the German people and the position of the Greek people (as well as all the peoples of the EU and the USA), none are represented by the bankers or the politicians.
An example of how the banking cartels control countries
The Greek case by system failure
November 15, 2013 --If we take a look at the Greek legislation, we can understand why the country is totally controlled by big private banks. According to the legislation concerning operating rules of the Primary Dealers selected in order to provide specialised services in the government securities market, one can read that:
From article 1, paragraph1: as Primary Dealers are appointed institutions authorised as credit institutions or investment firms in a country which is a member of the European Union or authorised as such in another jurisdiction by a regulatory authority which, in the opinion of the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Bank of Greece (hereinafter “the Competent Authorities”), imposes an adequate supervisory/investor protection regime. Primary Dealers are selected in order to provide specialised services in the government securities market, i.e., to participate in the syndications and auctions of Greek government securities in the primary market as well as to trade such securities in the Electronic Secondary Securities Market (hereinafter “HDAT”) at prices that they are obliged to announce.
From article 4, paragraphs Da and Db: Primary Dealers are required to facilitate a broad distribution of Greek government securities domestically as well as internationally and provide the Ministry of Finance, the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) and the Bank of Greece with advice, information on and assessment of market conditions, and other information pertaining to their status as Primary Dealers.
From article 5, paragraphs 1d, 1e, 1f, 1g: Primary Dealers enjoy privileged access to information pertaining to the borrowing needs of the Hellenic Republic and issuance planning, new financial instruments and relating operating rules, securities in circulation, volume and turn-over as well as auction results. Exclusive access to short-term securities lending mechanisms that may be created in order to facilitate hedging (short selling). Privileged access to syndication pursuant to Article 13. Privileged access to liabilities management. The Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) shall take into account the credit rating of the counterparty with which it shall perform such transactions.
From article 9: The Committee responsible for Primary Dealers’ Supervision and Control is set up by a joint decision of the Competent Authorities and consists of 10 members representing the following institutions: two representatives of the Bank of Greece, three representatives of the Ministry of Finance, one of which from the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA), three representatives of the Primary Dealers, one representative of the Dealers, one representative of the Hellenic Banks Association. The Committee is presided over by one of the two representatives of the Bank of Greece and decides with a majority of at least seven of its members.
http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogDocumentEn/PRIMARY_DEALERS_RULES.pdf
According to the Greek PDMA website, the primary dealers are currently the following 22 banks: Alpha Bank, Banca IMI Spa, Barclays Bank plc, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Emporiki Bank, EFG Eurobank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, ING Bank, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, National Bank of Greece, Nomura, Piraeus Bank, RBS, Societe Generale, UBS, Unicredit.
http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/debt-instruments-greek-government-bonds/primary-dealers
Despite the swap scandal of "fixing" the Greek deficit by Goldman Sachs, for which the Greek government paid the bank at least 300 million euros, (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0), Goldman Sachs is included in the Primary Dealers list, in order to continue providing "valuable services - advice" to the Greek government. Another two banks, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, are included in the Primary Dealers list, despite that according to the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) report, together with Goldman Sachs, are those responsible for the "creation" of 30% of the destructive financial "tools" known as CDOs during 2004-2007, which contributed significantly to the creation of the housing bubble in US. Two more banks which had significant presence in CDOs that time are Deutsche Bank and UBS, which also continue to be two of the twenty two Primary Dealers.
Another bank based in Greece, Piraeus Bank, is also included to the Primary Dealers list. It is worth to remember the scandal of "selling" the healthy part of public bank Agrotiki to Piraeus Bank in July 2012. The governor of the Bank of Greece, George Provopoulos, had stated that it was a necessary action because the European Central Bank was about to cut the necessary amount of 6.3 billion euros and Agrotiki would have closed, so, many people would have lost their jobs. However, according to the bill concerning this "selling", the difference between assets and liabilities of Agrotiki Bank, was nearly 6.67 billion euros and should be covered exclusively by the Greek Financial Stability Fund, ie the Greek taxpayers! Which means that the "selling" was targeting only to assist a private bank (Piraeus) to eliminate a competitor (public bank Agrotiki), and secure its position in the "Too Big to Fail" category.
Those banks are permanently included in the Primary Dealers list and according to a "riddled" legislation, they have the right to participate in all liquidity processes by the Greek Public in money markets, to supervise and control these processes, as well as enjoying special privileges.
It is characteristic that the committee, which is responsible to control and supervise primary dealers, consists of 10 members, 5 of them represent private banks interests, according to the article 9. However, knowing that the Bank of Greece is, in high percentage, a private institution, then private interests dominate in the committee with a fraction of 7/10, just as much as they need to decide in favor of banking cartels. ...
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2013/11/an-example-of-how-banking-cartels.html
9 out of 10 Americans think "The Fed" is somehow a part of the government. 99/100 couldn't name the BOD of the Fed without help of Wikipedia. All the while those bastards have WAY too much influence / power for an unelected bunch of crooks.
As opposed to elected crooks.
9 out of 10 Americans would say Joos control the fed
If a shitty little country like Greece can bust apart the EU, it deserves it.
One of the weird things that is happening is that all this debt is going from being owned by bonholders who REALLY care about being paid back because they use it to eat (individuals) or its in a portfolio whose poor performance would cost them their jobs in a relatively short period of time.
But now it's going to the balance sheets of these large entities - Fed, ESM (wtf is that? I had to look it up)
They are pools of shi%^&%&t (bad bonds) run by beaurocrats who sense something bad is happening but don't really tie the lack of income or perceived value to their cushy apartchik jobs.
It is EXACTLY like the banks taking over bad home loans. And I know see the result is going to be the same. Just like we had people living payment free in US houses for years we will have zombie countries (Greece, later Italy) that don't really need to pay off debt.
I know the ZH's hate the postponement of financial judgment day but I think this could prolongue things for years. I could never have imagined a place where I paid rent every month and people I knew lived rent free for up to 2 years AND ended up keeping their houses with modified terms
reakity sucks and countries not being able to pay back debt is going to be something taken off the table for the eventual reset.
If anyone can tell me why Greece doesn't have a lot of time now that ESM owns all its debt please do. There won't be a market for the stuff but it won't go away either
I agree with you: Greece can pay or not pay as it feels like and the ECB won't dare kick it out. As there is (still) no exit policy in place for the Euro, I suppose the EZ cannot afford for anyone ever to leave.
Makes me laugh when Ghordo insists that Euro membership is strictly voluntary. Entering is, certainly, but remaining a member? That has yet to be tested, as when there is no exit procedure in place, entering the Euro becomes a bit like entering a roach hotel. Those entrances are voluntary too, but once you're in, it's getting out that's the hard part.
Time for me to watch Cube again; 5 years of non-stop Euro drama reminds me of that movie constantly.
But I think it will change, and that right soon. The temperature of the euro victims is beginning to reach a dangerous level. A group of tame voters, ordinary working-class joes who don't follow financial or geopolitical news, just elected Syriza in a landslide. The oligarchs are no longer in control of their monster money system and the cracks are becoming obvious even to people who vote.
It won't be the oligarchs who put a stop to this, but their growing victim populations, as resentment slowly boils up to dangerous levels. What's changing isn't the oligarchs or the euro system, but the mood of the people. They are beginning to see the future of their children go up in smoke. The fuse of the European powder keg just burned a little shorter this week.
The second that members of the Troika enter Greek territory, they should be arrested and held for ransom! What's the EU gonna do then, unleash their all-powerful armies? (Beheadings will continue until balance-sheets improve!)
Back to the Drachma and back into the money printing business?
I doubt it, but who really knows how it will play out.
Italy already has a center left Government.
We've got EQE now.
The euro might as well be worthless.
Germany is hugely productive...the engine of growth for the whole EZ now it would appear.
I just don't see either the surprise or the "disaster."
I do think Europe is going to get a NASTY inflation.
That isn't Greece's fault.
Tell us the European UNION is solid as ever. SNB and the Greeks? That's a private family matter and none of our business. Keep showing a nice cohesive family portrait and quash any rumors you'll splinter into tiny fragments one day.
And Putin sitting there, laughing his ass off. "Come...we have a better deal for you!"
Call me a negativist and a sourpuss, but I would say that with leftwing anti-capitalist moonbats in charge of Greece, and a jihadist-loving Muslim in charge of Turkey, . . . NATO is probably dead.
Or, should I say . . . EVEN MORE DEAD.
Who is NATO going to defend, and against what?
A better question - who IN NATO is going to defend?
Frankly Unit, WHO gives a d@mn??
The bankers just don't get it.
Unconditional bailouts for bankers and austerity for the people was never going to be popular with the electorate.
The days of the Centrist politician are numbered.
Across the West they have dug their own graves by giving unconditional bailouts to bankers and imposing austerity on the people.
For the Centrists it’s still, let’s give more money to bankers and the rich through QE. They have no idea.
In France they have already swung from Hollande’s, Socialists, to Le Pen’s, far right, in search of solutions.
Let us hope Syiriza succeeds in Greece, on the far right lies Golden Dawn.
Now Centrist politicians you need to start thinking.
1% of the population have 1% of the vote.
Bankers have a totally insignificant percentage of the vote.
If you keep looking after these people you are not going to get anywhere.
First they bribe the politicans. When that fails, they bribe the majority of sheeple. When that fails, they implement the Police State. This has nothing to do with voting. This is only about changing the system however needed to put all assets under banker control. The New Feudal World Order is the end game, and that can only be accomplished with a Fascist Police State.
- most people dont see the three dimensional chess board - they think it is idealogical - communism /socialism / Capitalism / Crony capitalism - no these are all transitional systems - its about the .....assets and cash flow in a corner with politicians bought to efffect whatever "ism" works for the time being and herd the sheeple and then they effect the transition to Feudalism- the monopoly or oligopoly are stages
people think in terms of democrats or republicans but the objective is to use both as different flavors - one side you use religion / abortion /the other side you use rights and women - then you change the game once you have control
they want MAX - 3.5 BILLION HUMANS on the planet all the rest have to be Murdered by Neglect or offed by covert / military action
Centrist politicians looking to maintain the status quo took us down this path last time:
1920s – high inequality, high banker pay (2000s)
1929 – wall street crash (2008)
1930s – global recession, currency wars, extremism and fascism (2010s)
1940s – global war
"Desperation forced the voters into the arms of a left-wing government who's rhetoric reminds me of my youth (many decades ago) in the the 1970s: Comrades, capitalism, imperialism is some of the words I heard on TV interview this evening."
You mean back when there was actually a middle class?
IKR? Same thought I had. The '70s was when the US defaulted for the second time having been bankrupted by Vietnam among other things. But there was still a lot of productive momentum left over from the golden years of the '50s and '60s. Our productive economies were just beginning to be consumed and the results of that default could barely be seen yet. When I read that, all I could think of was how even a normal citizen back then would respond to the idiocy today, of entrusting the entire productive economy to a handful of banking idiots, hereditary aristocracy, and war criminals.
Don't forget that Russia has given the offer to Greece to become a major trading partner if they turn their back on European sanctions.
What I am seeing from this article is the banks are scared shitless by now. Sure they are putting up brave fronts, and lots of Greece must pay rethoric. I am sure quietly amongst themselves, they are running for the exits. Never mind what the banks say, look at what they do. Actions will speak louder than words. We may see in the next few weeks some very strange moves in international finance.
I know one thing for sure, this election win by Syriza is the first shot accross the bow in the great game of chicken that is being played between the Bnaksters, and the (by this point) the very annoyed population of Europe. If neither side gets out of the way, the collision could be with such intensity that we have not seen this type of crisis in at least 100 years.
This election victory by Tzipras, is but the beggining of troubles for the European Oligarchy. With elections coming in other countries in Europe, 2015 will be an interesting year indeed!
Hmmmm.
By my count, it's about the three hundred and twenty-ninth shot across the bow.
But I missed the first few episodes.
...ummm, rewrite at some new terms. Fixed! Pay? Of course not.
Honest question - what's the downside or repercussions from Greece simply defaulting on their loans, flipping the bird at the EU and starting over / go their own way?
Some or all of the following:
Currency devaluation, loan defaults, business failures, shortages in food and fuel, increase in crime, civil unrest, mass unemployment, starvation, riot, looting, tumult . . . and then things will really start to go down hill.
Currency devaluation certainly, but you are wrong about most of the rest.
Greece is not receving money from the ECB/EU to buy food and fuel. They actually do that with their exports, which would increase after a currency devaluation.
The "bailout" money they receive goes to pay interest on the debt and to roll over the debt. No debt, no interest, and Greece can actually earn more with a lower currency and start to buy more imports for its people.
And about that mass unemployment and starvation. Germany and the EU already delivered it to them.
currency devaluation creates value for local products / loan default create cash flow from retained earnings / business failures create nationalization/ shortages produce innovation / crime produces community involvement / civil unrest produces citizen activation /unemployment existing @28% produces Syriza /
PAYING THE DEBT PRODUCES DEATH - NEVER PAY EVER the banksters!
FUCKEM IN THE DRIVE THRU - NEVER STOP NEVER GIVE IN
The Greeks and the EU/ECB/IMF/BFD are playing "Russian" roulette, only someone keeps putting more ammo in the gun!
the Syriza victory is a disaster for Oligarchy Europe that RUNS the show.
If they don't want civil war and further dystopia, which will be the result of a conjugaison of Oligarchy denial of reality and of subsequent populist rage; a page out of the Renaissance age; when Popes and Feudal Order died in religious wars leading to new paragidm; they better get wise.
The rich always have more to lose. And the raging 0.1 % Oligarchy can lose ALL their riches, ill gained in supply side rampage, if the PAGE TURNS.
Watch out oligarchy, the people will have the last word once again. And you will either be trampled like during the Revolution or else tolerated like after the Renaissance.
The choice is yours, until Mother Nature makes her call in climate change...
But that is not the main page story today.
Why do they have to be in the Euro to be part of Europe. What a load of shit. Is Switzerland part of Europe? Is Norway?
Because "Europe" is the tit they suck to avoid starvation. They got in by cooking the books in the first place. It's the Greek way. What else does Greece have? Norway has its oil and gas, Switzerland has its financial sector.
22.3 billion Euros
It's no big deal. Just let FDIC pay off the loans for Greece and give them a new start. Why not? Our representatives in congress already let the TBTF banks move their derivative portfolios under the FDIC guarantee. Morgan/Chase alone has something like $60 trillion that the FDIC is on the hook for. Add in the others and you're into hundreds of trillions in exposure.
22 billion Euros? That's chump change
"sign of hope for a new start in Europe."
hope? common, like in "wishful thinking"? I bet they will accept ECB demands initially, win some time to check internally how that's gonna be, find a 'compromise' aka 'can kicking for some time', in short timeframe markets will reflief and only then things will start going wrong. USD correction coming along? I don't know but markets disbehave, in short time markets prefer wishful thinking.
A disaster for Europe but a wet dream for EU governments that want to issue more debt and welcome more immigrants and immigrant spending and Socialist immigrant voters.
The EU is a non-state owned by a BANKS with a contract to issue more debt in collusion with whatever invasion they allow and no obligation to pay it back.
There's actually a perverse incentive to borrow money to finance the import of Muslim & African tax parasites.
"Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen doubts the latter will happen with the same vote as the Greeks are tired of austerity but not of being European"
As if membership in the EU were the requirement for being European.
I guess Mozart wasn't European, musta been an aborigine or sumpin..