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S&P Cuts Russia To Junk, Ruble Plunges To 6-Week Lows - Full Text
With the Ruble having plunged 3 handles today alone, it appears perhaps more than a few could see this coming...
- RUSSIAN FEDERATION RATINGS CUT TO JUNK BY S&P
- RUSSIAN FEDERATION CUT TO BB+ FROM BBB- BY S&P; OUTLOOK NEG
Putting it below investment grade for the first time in a decade. Of course, this happens just 6 days after the news first leaked that S&P would pay a $1.5 billion settlement to the US DoJ over downgrading America: one wonders just what else was in the small print?
The downgrade comes on a day when The Russia Agriculcural Bank failed to sell 10Y bonds into the market. Russian stocks (ADRs) and the Ruble continue to slide on this news.
Here are a few countries that are now rated higher than Russia...
Full text of S&P report:
Russia Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered To ‘BB+/B'; Outlook Negative
OVERVIEW
- In our view, the Russian Federation’s monetary policy flexibility has weakened, as have its economic growth prospects.
- We are therefore lowering our foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Russia to ‘BB+/B’ from ‘BBB-/A-3' and our local currency sovereign credit ratings to ‘BBB-/A-3' from ‘BBB/A-2'.
- At the same time, we removed these ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 23, 2014.
- The outlook is negative, reflecting our view that Russia’s monetary policy flexibility could diminish further. We could lower the ratings if external and fiscal buffers deteriorate over the next 12 months faster than we currently expect.
As a “sovereign rating” (as defined in EU CRA Regulation 1060/2009 “EU CRA Regulation”), the ratings on the Russian Federation are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in Art 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, including publication in accordance with a pre-established calendar (see “Calendar Of 2015 EMEA Sovereign, Regional, And Local Government Rating Publication Dates,” published Dec. 30, 2014, on RatingsDirect). Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasons for the deviation.
In this case, the reason for the deviation is a significant change in our perception of Russia’s monetary flexibility over the 2015-2018 forecast horizon and the effect we expect Russia’s weakening economy to have on its financial system. As a result, we have revised downward our expectations on key macroeconomic indicators.
The next rating publication on Russia is scheduled for April 17, 2015, according to our calendar.
RATING ACTION
On Jan. 26, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the Russian Federation to ‘BB+/B’ from ‘BBB-/A-3'. We also lowered the long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings to ‘BBB-/A-3' from ‘BBB/A-2'. In addition, we removed these ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 23, 2014. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative.
At the same time, we revised the transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment on Russia to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-‘. We affirmed the long-term national scale rating on Russia at ‘ruAAA’.
RATIONALE
The downgrade reflects our view that Russia’s monetary policy flexibility has become more limited and its economic growth prospects have weakened. We also see a heightened risk that external and fiscal buffers will deteriorate due to rising external pressures and increased government support to the economy.
We believe that Russia’s financial system is weakening and therefore limiting the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR’s) ability to transmit monetary policy. In our opinion, the CBR faces increasingly difficult monetary policy decisions while also trying to support sustainable GDP growth. These challenges result from the inflationary effects of exchange-rate depreciation and sanctions from the West as well as counter-sanctions imposed by Russia. We project Russia’s real GDP per capita growth to average less than economies with comparable levels of per-capita income over our 2015-2018 rating horizon.
In December 2014, the CBR increased its key interest rate by 750 basis points over five days to 17%. This was to stem the sharp depreciation of the ruble and curb inflation. The ruble briefly appreciated against the dollar but has since continued to depreciate, reaching about 66 rubles to the dollar (as of Jan. 26, 2015), compared to about 35 a year ago. The interest rate on interbank loans increased substantially, to well above the key rate–although it has since moderated. We see such movements in financial instrument rates as strong indicators of a weakening monetary transmission mechanism. We expect that credit to the economy will be curtailed, which will likely further undermine growth.
We also understand that during 2014 the Russian public had been converting rubles into foreign currency, thereby fueling depreciation. Given the pass-through of more expensive imports to domestic prices generally, we now expect that inflation will rise above 10% in 2015.
We anticipate that asset quality in the financial system will deteriorate given the weaker ruble; restricted access of key areas of the economy to international capital markets due to sanctions; and economic recession in 2015. Asset quality deterioration may not be immediately apparent in reported figures, however, due to temporary measures introduced by the CBR that allow Russian banks to apply more favorable exchange rates when valuing foreign-currency denominated assets and apply more flexible provisioning policies.
We project that the economy will expand by about 0.5% annually in 2015-2018, below the 2.4% of the previous four years. We see this muted projected growth partly as a legacy of a secular economic slowdown that had already begun before the recent developments in the Ukraine. It also reflects a lack of external financing due to the introduction of economic sanctions and the sharp decline in oil prices. Ruble depreciation will subdue GDP per capita in dollar terms, which we forecast at $8,600 in 2015. We also expect that declining domestic purchasing power as a result of exchange rate depreciation and rising inflation will likely hamper Russia’s growth prospects.
Balance-of-payment pressures have hit the economy; Russia is experiencing a severe terms-of-trade shock (see “Standard & Poor’s Revises Its Crude Oil And Natural Gas Price Assumptions,” published Jan. 9, 2015). We nevertheless expect that Russia’s current account will remain in surplus over 2015-2018 due to import compression (a consistent drop in import demand).
In our view, balance-of-payment pressures center on the financial account. Private-sector net capital outflows averaged $57 billion annually during 2009-2013; they increased to $152 billion in 2014. Stresses could mount for Russian corporations and banks that have foreign currency debt service requirements without a concomitant foreign currency revenue stream.
We estimate Russia’s gross external financing requirement for 2015 at close to 85% of current account receipts (CARs) plus usable reserves. We expect that some of this requirement will be accommodated by dollar sales by the CBR, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on CBR reserves. Our figure for CBR usable reserves deducts from the CBR’s reported foreign currency reserves:
- Investments made by the CBR on behalf of the government;
- The CBR’s foreign currency swaps;
- Funds received under repos with nonresidents; and
- Accounts of domestic banks that are counted as reserves.
By this definition, we forecast that reserve coverage of current account payments will decline to about three months by 2017, from seven months in 2014.
That said, Russia maintains a net external asset position. We expect a narrow net external asset position of about 9% of CARs over the 2015-2018 forecast horizon (liquid external assets held by the public and banking sector minus external debt).
On Nov. 10, 2014, the CBR modified its exchange rate regime. It moved from an operational band–with regular interventions on and outside the borders of the band against a dual currency basket–to a freer float, with foreign currency interventions permissible in case of financial stability threats. This change should afford the CBR greater ability to conserve reserves. Historically, there is usually a strong correlation between the external value of the ruble and oil prices; this has once again been the case over the past 12 months.
To mitigate oil-price vulnerability, in 2013 the government instituted a fiscal rule that caps government spending based on long-term historical oil prices, while targeting a central government deficit of less than 1% of GDP. This rule is designed to lead to asset accumulation when oil prices are high, and to allow the government to draw on assets when prices are low, thereby reducing the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy. We expect fiscal policy to significantly loosen as the sharp decline in oil prices, compared to historical prices, allows for higher deficits.
Ruble depreciation supported the government’s fiscal position in 2014 because about half its revenues come from hydrocarbons and are priced in U.S. dollars. The U.S. dollar oil price decline of 55% since the start of 2014 was only 10% in ruble terms. As a result, we estimate that the central government posted a small deficit of 0.5% of GDP last year. However, we expect a deterioration in local and regional government balances, which bear the brunt of the government’s increased spending on public-sector wages. Overall, we estimate that the general government will post a deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2014 and an average annual deficit of 2.5% over 2015-2018. Support to the banks through the placement of RUB1 trillion (about 1.4% of GDP) in government bonds was approved in 2014 and is accounted for in government expenditure, though not yet utilized.
We view the modest general government net debt position as a rating strength, as we do its low interest burden as a percentage of revenues. The central government’s Reserve Fund and National Wealth Fund, together total about 14% of GDP (although we believe about 1% of GDP of this is invested in non-liquid domestic assets). In our opinion, the central government will progressively use these two funds to increase its support to the economy and the financial system. We understand that RUB500 billion (about 0.7% of GDP) will be taken from the Reserve Fund and put on Ministry of Finance deposit accounts with the domestic banks to improve their liquidity. In our view, this will add to the non-liquid portion of the government’s reserve assets, although we understand that at some point in the future these funds could be used for deficit financing.
We view Russia’s institutional and governance effectiveness as a rating weakness. Political power is highly centralized with few checks and balances, in our opinion. We do not currently expect that the government will be able to effectively tackle the long-standing structural obstacles (perceived corruption, the weak rule of law, the state’s pervasive role in the economy, and the challenging business and investment climate) to stronger economic growth over our 2015-2018 forecast horizon.
OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects our view that Russia’s monetary policy flexibility could diminish further.
For example, the imposition of exchange controls, if implemented, could further hamper monetary flexibility. We could also lower the ratings if external and fiscal buffers deteriorated at a materially faster pace over the next 12 months than we currently expect.
We could revise the outlook to stable if Russia’s financial stability and economic growth prospects were to improve.
* * *
We hope S&P chose the accelerated tax depreciation option for its office located at 4/7 Vozdvizhenka Street in Moscow.
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S&P just earned brownie points with the S.E.C. and D.O.J.!
I wonder who will have the last laugh..
http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap.ht...
S&P accomplished its mission.
Good doogie ! Goooooood doggie.
Yup.. Part of the settlement. All companies are part of the government now, and are thus implements of foreign policy. Fascism.
Arbeit Macht Frei
Tail wagging the dog. The governments are all part of the corporations now.
They Don't Seem To Giva A Flying Fuck, Pining For Nuke War ?????????????
So Russia becomes more resilient BECAUSE IT HAS TO IN ORDER TO SURVIVE, while 'Merica becomes more delusional about it's invincibility because it's been able to weasel out of real trouble... so far.
... and becoming more resolute ... >>> "U.S. 'Cannot Stop' Russian Nuclear Missiles — Deputy Prime Minister" >>> http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/us-cannot-stop-russian-nuclear-missiles--deputy-prime-minister/514884.html
S&P, Moody's et al sold their integrity with giving away AAA's for junkiest financial turds ever to hit balance sheets. Their only way is downward to the point of absolute irrelevance.
S&P downgrades its own credibility as a rating agency again, below this-is-politicized-US-economic-warfare junk status
brother can you spare a kleenex?
sure !
Tail wagging the dog returning to its own vomit.
Corporations control the government only to the extent that the hidden government desires other to do its bidding. Number 3 and Number 2 are clear. Who is Number 1?
Napolean and Hitler wondered also. But we know the answer. Russia exports valuable basic commodities people need; they have almost no debt. The Western Capitalists are ganging up on them; your enemies; they will fail. russia will prevail.
Ah, now I get it, sell Russia buy.......Greece.
What a farce.
And don't forget to load up on mortgage backed securities. With a AAA rating, they're guaranteed winners. Nothing could possibly go wrong.
even the equity tranche , bitches
Russia should peg the Ruble against the Yuan just to screw with everybody.......
Their internal cost structure is dropping while their income increases by this action and it actually makes them stronger.
America’s strong dollar is the biggest issue as America’s export products (agriculture) are being priced out of the market.
And the car market will also bleed as import cars are now 10% cheaper in the last month
What exports are you talking about ? GMO corn & wheat, maybe ? Hormone fed beef & chicken ? Boeing planes ? That's about it...
Yes, I would not be too proud of my country, if the export products are worse than those made in china.
Just one more nail in the coffin of their credibility. Russia has ~11% debt/GDP, and an economy based on selling essential resources. Their debt is rated junk. America has ~80% debt/GDP (not counting massive entitlement programs which Russia doesn't have), and an economy based mainly on services, plunder, and reselling Chinese crap. They have an investment grade rating.
CNBC-
The ratings agency said the Russian Federation's monetary policy flexibility had weakened, as have its economic growth prospects.
*Somebody blinked.
Well, it's Putin's fault for not bribi... I mean ... paying these rating agencies as the banks still do? After all, they put their stamp of approval on MBS trash for years.
Does anyone outside the existing bubble system even care what these people do anymore?
US rated AA+, France AA, UK AAA, EU AA+, Japan AA-, Iceland BBB-
Nothing political there. Or maybe a bond is a good investment if it is guaranteed to be paid back with the bailout/QE infinite toilet paper printing press?
WHAT US DOES WHEN SUCH AGENICES ACT AGAINST THEIR WISH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-21/geithner-said-u-s-would-respond...
http://rt.com/usa/doj-sp-us-rating-497/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/geithner-warned-sp-chairman-us-...
All three major Western "ratings agencies" were proven to be frauds a few years ago. : http://www.reuters.com/.../ratingagencies-rulings
Didn't Greenspan or someone say, 'We'll always be Triple A.'
I took that as a warning.
that's rite American makes the rules and if you break them we will lower your ratings. yes I know rediculous but the rest of the world allows it to be this way so can we help this stupidity of the world really?
sarc
.
For some reason, I had read that as investment grade baiting.
But hey, we all know that investing in America couldn't possibly be any sort of trap. America = AAA = The Good Guys®, right?
That, a new CEO, and $1,500,000,000 should get them their old spot at the hog trough.
As Timmah looks on after breaking the smelliest wind possible with a shit eating monkey grin!
Keep grinnin Timmah!!!
All that money you got will be going to moar protection for you and your loved ones sooner than you think -bitch!
Where did the US Treasury learn such an effective tactic?
Still holding my Long Ruble Contracts; because I'm rutin for Putin but not just with my mouth. They're just touching my zero-zero point today; (no gain no loss). tomorrow will be important for me. Cheers.
Fiat is for suckers.
sure, but "no RISK, no reward" right?
ouch. stops are for buses eh
You moron ! If you'd ever bother to trade anything on any US market, you would know by now that you practically cannot use stops anymore. The algos out there would hunt and blow them away, to your absolute frustration...
those algos are really hungry for your 1 dollar s&p short?
In volume, those algos will go after pennies.
Fractions of pennies, in FOREX... But don't forget that you're talking to a dumb cat, so don't expect much...
I was going to mention that to him, but I can't stand the sight of hairballs.
must be tough being one of the sheep.
You know, those snacks you find in the litter box aren't chocolates.
Nobody cares about fucking ratings.
Well, you're certainly nobody, and you don't care about them, so i guess that proves your point. The function of ratings is to discourage money managers at all levels, and in many cases, make it impossible for them to invest in rubles; it is an attack by the Western Capitalist, your enemies, against Russia and the Russian People, who have done nothing to justify it.
Ad hom attack?
Well fuck you! And I didn't read your post after you had insulted me because your joust proves you inept at forming an argument and rational thoughts.
But as for what I know about ratings and jawboning and such, what do you want, a thesis into Neo-Keynsian theory?
The defense S&P gave for their downgrading was a weakening Rusiian economy and a lack of financial flexability. When the world is mired in depression how can S&P single out Russia? Italy is fooked and their rating is higher. As for flexibility Russia has as its largest trade partner, its neighbor, China - the largest economy in the world (never mind their data when all data lies).
Oh and yeah fuck ratings, nobody fucking cares.
WELCOME TO FIGHT CLUB
as dad would say,"i give a shit" ha,...
Yeah. If we read through the "rationale", S&P does not mention a risk of a sovereign default, so why the downgrade? Also no mention of Russias growing gold hoard (surprise surprise). This is so obviously a political move.
S&P has lost all credibility, and calls into question the integrity of all US corporates.
One can see why some folk are very keen to extract themselves from US-dominated structures (SWIFT, USD, IMF, World Bank, etc), when they are used for extortion.
Italy? What about Japan, AA-! Hahaha.
Doesn't EVERYBODY love a good fight? That's what makes this place hum, buck and spin!
One exception (I'm sure that there are more) is the foreign exchange markets. And if it does recover, it will probably be because the Russian Central Bank had to come to the rescue by purchasing more rubles with their hard currency reserves. Hopefully, by the end of the year they will have no more reserves. That would be nice.
And one more thing....when you say "nobody cares", that's obviously not true. You obviously care, because, otherwise, you would just ignore the ratings cut.
No problem:
China and Russia to launch new credit rating agency in 2015exactly!
guess they didnt get the fucking memo...
assholes.
It's a foot race to the Exit, with the expected intended and unintended consequences.
The BRIICS+ need to decouple from the King Dollar System (USD, BIS, Bond market and rating agencies) by... "yesterday".
Their parallel system needs to be up and running... very, VERY soon.
The 5th Column (Agents and Helpers/Sayanim) in the BRIICS will seek to prevent or delay that, to allow TPTB maximum tactical advantage.
Russia cut S&P to junk status last week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/russian-central-bank-bans-weste...
So let them downgrade it to "junk"!...
Russia and China already have a SWIFT exit!
There's a RIFT in that SWIFT.
"Junk" that pays %17.5 on a bank deposit. I reccommend you open a Ruble account at a major Russian Bank; ASAP and plan to hold it for a year; so you can get a one year CD. Check with B of A foreign operations in Florida for details; or your local yokels. The Ruble will be higher at the end of year; so you will make more than 17.5%; much more. Cheers.
Excellent point on the fixed income side. More sustainable than the Fed's US bubble economy.
I have an unfair advantage; I actually know something about this shit.
You also know they will declare gold backing in the not too distant future. Might be a backdoor way to score some phyz? Yes, I know only phyz is phyz, and the ruble will probably end up only partially backed. Just thinking of a flexile route to phyz. Beat the manipulators at their own game.
The ruble will regain a lot of ground. The S&P rates the bank as if there are too many rubles around. The solution is simply for Russia to sell their UST holdings and buy rubles. That allows russia to reclaim rubles and get dollars out in the market, which then devalues the US dollar.
gold backing is in the works too. I suspect natural gas sales will be paid for in Rubles, Yuan, or other BRICS currencies, and of course, in gold.
Is that right? You actually know something about shit? I can tell.
Is that right? You actually know something about shit? I can tell.
great until emergency exchange controls are introduced
Check with B of A foreign operations in Florida for details; or your local yokels.
Quick question ma...
What are the risks that B of A (higher standards) will bend you over a chair with your Ruble investment when the "civil forfeiture" ain't enough?!!!
Thank you for telling us what you are dreaming about. Truth is that by year end the rub[b]le will drop by 50% and you will suffer a rather large loss.
"Truth is that by year end the rub[b]le will drop by 50% and you will suffer a rather large loss."...
Is that you MillionDollarBonus?...
I think you're too early.
Since when does S&P, GAAP, SubPrime, national debt, traditional marriage matter anymore.
s&P cuts deal with US govt, gets fined, now cuts Ruska to junk. Someone is trying very hard to start a war.
There has been a financial war in earnest since 2008.
So far it hasn't stopped Russia from "backing down."
We'll see.
The situation is approaching a fish-or-cut-bait moment for the U.S. The Wolfowitz Doctrine is running out of time and those turning the screws know that Russia can outlast their economic maneoeverings. Which leaves little options left. They are doing the mangy mut biting at your heels for the moment, hoping to 'soften' Putin up. If that doesn't work, then perhaps another (major) False-flag operation could be employed. After that? Let's just say life as we know it would change drastically in very rapid order, regardless if it came to nuclear conflict.
I could see a Russian sub sneak into the GoM and torpedo a few deep water rigs and blame ISIS sympathizers. That would be enough to blow oil back over $100 in short order. Europeans will sit out any action until after winter is over at the very least.
syndicate rating agencies do as they're told by the syndicate
Their function of course is to create a faux impression of trust, so they can abuse that trust to generate profits for the syndicate banksters and rape the donkeys, or in this case an entire country.
Any doubters need look no further back than 2008.
You're naked as a centerfold.
"pot, meet kettle..."
fuck S&PISS...
Gawd how I love this... Every 'smack' at Russia's face just serves to turn the skrews tighter and tighter, all the while those turning the skrews inflate themselves with more arrogance and hubris. Pity actually, because they have no idea of what awaits.
Tsipras's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected Greek PM was with Russia's Andrey Maslov
https://twitter.com/NickMalkoutzis/status/559747858916990976
GOOD
Russia is already supporting far-right and far-left groups all around Europe. In France(Front National) and in Germany (AFD) for example. Although I have a different take on Russia than the usual ZH reader (who does not live close to the Russian border) it's just a way of gaining influence in Europe - not unlike the US does. Both of course don't actually give a fuck about Europe.
Wadda ya think lifting the embargo with Cuba is about, and Os timed visit to India to induct the new ERA of TRUST,i Hammerin Putin every which way possible. Most Relentless attack since they started after the cold war ended encroaching on Russia through NATO. It is incredible to witness the blatent attacks trying to set up Russia for the fall/war.
Obama may be thinking of an end-run around Putin by doing deals in India. Trouble is, Putin was already there and Obama is still playing a game of catch-up. Meanwhile Modi is snickering into his sleeve - sure, he'll take American money and then make Russian deals.
I heard nogotiations with Cuba suddenly came to halt.
I heard nogotiations with Cuba suddenly came to halt.
I heard nogotiations with Cuba suddenly came to halt.
Subs lining up on the coasts is probably what awaits...all while using a blizzard for some cover.
I agree with S&P on this one. Russia is basically a large oil company, and right now oil companies are getting destroyed. People can go ahead and lend money to Russia, but understand that it does carry certain risks at this time. Those risks will go down when the price of oil starts rising again.
Google: Russian sanctions; it might provide a more well rounded opinion.
I'd rather be an oil company than a narcotics distributor.
or printshop.
Speaking of printshops, those printers need ink. Specifically ink from SICPA.
Putin, make SICPA an offer they can't refuse (gold bullion would work for obvious reasons), and then cut off the ink supply to the US.
<cue asymmetrical warfare evil laughter>
I think that Russia & Friends realize that Western companies are not lending Russia any "money", but fiat Debt instruments -- conjured out of thin air and from the ether of electronic pixels.
Said Currency and Debt that is loaned onto existence is based on the USD, still playing the Reserve Currency game.
The days of that King Ponzi are numbered, as the world is waking up and taking irrevocable countermeasures.
Hedge accordingly.
Why downgrade? Russia can now successfully file a lawsuit potentially worth 1.5 billion against S&P under the Geithner bullying rule..their current account should look very good!
Another salvo in the currency war. This is likely a reaction to prop up the Euro/Dollar in the face of the recent Greek overtures to Russia.
The S&P was captured after their last attempt to downgrade the FRN.
"Outta my face please..."
Which one doesn't belong?
a Astrologer
b Palm Reader
c Economist
d Fortune Teller
e lemon
Hey, that's a trick question!
If you want this year's homecoming parade in my town, you have to pay for it... [/Mayor Carmine De Pasto]
This weekend the Greeks lose their mind and decide to default on Europe and the European central bank decides to print 1.2 trillion euros. How exactly do gold and silver go down?
S&P? This is a joke, right?
When I was insolent I was placed in a burlap sack and beaten with reeds... [/Dr. Evil]
In the spring we'd make meat helmets... [/Dr. Evil]
Russia 'junk' pays their depositors 18%....while western AAA+ pays depositors 0%.
Russia will not default on you because of insolvency, they will default of you because they are tired of the West meddling in their affairs.
Russia should also leave other countries alone!!!!!!
Yeah, they should follow Amerika's example!
17% is nothing compared to 40%+ ruble decline and inflation of well over 10%.
inconvenient truths - get with the program
inconvenient truths - get with the program
Don't forget the 20% decline of other "friendly" curencies.
Have you looked at the EUR or the CAD lately?
And how is Ukraine's robust currency doing?
Perspective and Balance, peeps.
*S&P FINE OF 1.5 BILLION REDUCED TO 250 MILLION AS PART OF THE DOWNGRADE AGREEMENT
With Russia selling UST to buy rubles, at this point, this currency harassment is nothing but a pure giveaway to Putin.
It's buy low, sell high, stupids.
not that long ago Russia wouldn't had a chance if the US decided to pull the plug on the currency due to the (western implemented) restrictions of Russia's Central Bank. This weakness should be over thanks to Iran and China, maybe even Brazil and Turkey do help circumvent these problems.
This S&P-move sounds like a short-circuited desperate attempt to supress the ineviteble.
S&P. The Street's piss boy.
Could one (or more) of you kind souls engage in a little futue forecasting for me, please? Because what I see is...
A. False flag attacks by Ukraine on Russian-speaking civilians, for which Kiev blames the DPR.
B. Western arming/training/funding of Kiev war machine and demanding MOAR WAR.
C. Western sanctions on Russia
D. Western attack on Ruble.
So my question is: how do you see this ending? And also, what is your timeline for the end you foresee?
I keep thinking either A) the West gets spanked somehow (but I don't know how), or B) Russia becomes subjugated by the West.
Yet with nuclear weapons in the cards, I don't know how A or B comes to pass.
Prognostications, anyone? I am at my wit's end here...
Putin is minimally engaging an enemy in the process of destroying itself. I really don't see it coming to genuine war - after all, they were ultimately too chickenshit to attack Iran, and while Iran might not be weak, they're peanuts compared to Russia. OTOH.... bankers do have a tendency to burn down everything on the way out the back door with the loot. Hopefully the American people will be too smart to allow that this time.
Haha just kidding. Most people I talk to believe that Putin is on his way to Paris because Reasons.
The phrase I like to use is: Incremental Escalation.
Russia takes out Ghawar.
Historically, the feminine will be conquered by the masculine. The west is feminine and the east is masculine. The west will be dominated by the east. Just a matter of time.
Please read this and try again;
http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/taote-v3.html
In a storm, firm branches become brittle and break, while soft branches bend and endure.
What is the ratio of men to women in China now, 3:1? Does anyone really know? You cannot fight history or nature. Storms are masculine by nature.
You've obviously never been married before.
"We believe that Russia’s financial system is weakening (in our delusional mind of course) and therefore limiting the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR’s) ability to transmit monetary policy", which is our only lasting short lived vain attempt at control of their economy before we attempt a World War with them as our own economy continues to implode due to 6 prolonged and wasted years of worthless monetization of our own debt!...
Fixed it!
We are told to believe ...
should read "we believe Russia is not playing well with the NWO and we must downgrade"
what is becoming obvious about these type of politically based actions - is the credibility of the West in all functional areas is suspect
Poland Minister says concentration camps in Poland were liberated by Fascist Banderites and not Russia
Lysenko - Bagdad Bob of Kiev - easily to verify reports that are major fabrication
Phony Reports by State Department - Psak
and now S & P with a Russia country rating that has less than $100 Billion in public debt and less than 35% Debt / GDP is downgraded to junk
not Italy not Spain not France - the entire system is a joke
West is behaving like a jealous woman.
Who's getting old.
Who cares what S&P thinks?!
Obviouslly the foreign exchange markets do. And when one more credit agency does a downgrade, things will get even worse for Russia. Good work S&P (you are slowly restoring your credibility), as for Fitch and Moodys.....what's taking so long?????
Yeah, you only get AAA rating when you have 18T in debt, 90 million working age unemployed and a fucking child in the white house. Great credibility
It looks like soon Ukrainia soldiers plus their NATO supporters will get a big TOPOL-M over their heads.
Putin calls Ukrainian army ‘NATO legion’ with geopolitical aim to contain RussiaIt looks like soon Ukrainia soldiers plus their NATO supporters will get a big TOPOL-M over their heads. As the American sheep graze on!...
moy
Can this shit get anymore terrifying?!!!
Let me get this straight, as I understand it, Russia can pay off its national debt and have billions left over. They have enough gold to pay off their debt twice, full support and backing of China........and they get downgraded to "junk"?
A perfect picture of why they and the rest of us are pissed off. Tired of a counterfitting bunch of clepto-psychopaths telling us how many of their worthless pieces of paper we can have, when we can have them, and what they are worth once we have them. Russia is rated junk in dollars. Looks like in rubles, they are just fine. Time for Putiin to do what we all wish we could, tell the US to take their broken, worthless dollar system and stick it up their ass.
I know it would cause a war, but I am ready for Putin to tell Europe that if they want Russian oil and gas, they have to pay in Rubles. Wonder what that would do to the value of the ruble and what it would do to the price of oil in dollars? I also wonder which way the Saudis would fall?
On a personal note, this is like when somebody calls me about my "credit rating" or tells me it will "hurt your credit rating". You know where I tell them to put their ratings? Best thing "they" could ever do for me is quit loaning me money.
Does this mean Russia has nothing to lose and might as well default? What the heck . . . why not.
It is not about Russian government debt as much as it is about their largest corporations debt, such as gazprom etc. Russian government needs $90 oil to keep them going...
I don't guess the word Gazprom caused a synapse to fire off.
I don't have enough up arrows for that little tirade. Nice work.
De-dollarization continues! Or not...
Ah, ah, USZZZ---...
S&P matters only to those that it legally matters to, without the "state mandate" there is no S&P.
From Wiki on Freddie Mac on how ratings work
Moody's gave Freddie Mac's preferred stock an investment grade rating of A1 until August 22, 2008, when Warren Buffett said publicly that both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae had tried to attract him and others. Moody's changed the credit rating on that day to Baa3, the lowest investment grade credit rating. Freddie's senior debt credit rating remains Aaa/AAA from each of the major ratings agencies Moody's, S&P, and Fitch.[7]
Like your Credit Score. The more you borrow the higher your credit rating regardless of how you manage to make the minimum payments,,, hook or crook
OTOH if you use Cash only your Credit Score sucks and you may not be able to purchase on credit even if you wanted to.
Under a Debt type monetary system,,, debt reigns supreme..... until default.
Those with the most debt have the highest ratings.... until default.
Add the luxury of owning the worlds currency (for now) and able to control the domestic corporate ratings agencies plus the illegal sanctions on Russia,,, this is no surprise.
I was about to write something extremely similiar. Oh, and for someone new to get credit built up..... you'll never guess.... take out a $2000 loan (IF you keep a minimum of $2000 in your savings account), and pay interest payments on that 'loan' each month until it is payed off over at least 6 months. Serious, this is my wife's option to build credit. Pay them interest for a loan that you've paid for before taking the loan.
Oh I guess Putlers conspiracy nutters on here really do enjoy losing money...shorting US market, betting on USD crash for years, waiting for that gold 5000 level, investing in RSX and the great currency of Russian Rubles...Would continue the list, have to go Mr. Jones on line two gotta discuss fema camps and bilderberg with him now.
Gold in Rbles has been an epically awesome play...and yen.
Yes papa...because the average Vladimir and Irina in Russia gets paid in gold right?
Yes RisingSüdi, because the average Daunis and Kuce in Latvia gets paid in potato, right?
http://i.imgur.com/Lct5rhI.jpg