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The Timestamps Begin: "The Impact Of The Blizzard On Employment Will Be Near Zero"
Just because we enjoy collecting snippets of soundbites and information, especially when the originators of said soundbites do a U-turn a few weeks later, here are the first two "timestamps" regarding the impact of what may be the biggest blizzard (and certainly one of the Top 5) in New York city history.
First, from Stone McCarthy:
I have been getting a few inquiries as to how the impending snowstorm might impact on the January or February employment data.
Based on the timing of the storm I suspect the impact on the January employment data will be near zero. Conceivably, the hours worked data could be marginally influenced for those workers that miss some work in the days immediately ahead, but such would only show up for those workers who are paid on a monthly basis.
The reference period for the payroll or establishment data is the pay-period that includes the 12th of the month. Most workers are paid on a weekly, biweekly or semi-monthly basis. For these workers the late month snowstorm should be largely irrelevant. But, for the small percentage of workers who are paid monthly there could be some minor impact.
For the household survey the reference period is the week (as opposed to pay-period) that bridges the 12th of the month. As such impending storm should have zero impact on the January household data.
As for the impact on the February payroll and household employment data we wouldn't expect much of an impact. The storm related dislocations would have to reach well into February to have a noticeable impact on the February data.
Which is great: after all that's what seasonal adjustments are for, right? To adjust for things like the seasons.
And second, from everyone's favorite groundhog nemesis:
Given its late month timing, winter storm #Juno is unlikely to have a big impact on the economic data.
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) January 26, 2015
Because sometimes it's good to know where one stands, just in case we get a repeat of this:
The best news, of course, is that unlike last year, economists will not use such an unprecedented atmospheric phenomenon as snow in the winter, as justification for a $100 billion haircut to annualized GDP. Right?
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Fat Ass Christy will be wishing he had those pounds he shed back.
All Airports will be closed
Watch our livestream from Brooklyn Bridge as New York prepares for potentially 'historic' Winter Storm Juno
Widespread power outages and major air traffic disruptions are feared throughout the north-east of the US as a massive winter storm that could dump three feet of snow bears down on the region.
All the LATEST on JUNO:
http://tersee.com/#!q=juno&t=text
CNBS actually talked about your "emergency kit" and having batteries in it........BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Damn preppers. They're gonna ruin us all!
Snow in New York??? In the winter???
Who'd a thunk it?
Unless it's a SHARKNADO!, don't waste my time...
Being a prepper puts you on a DHS watch list.
CNBS 'emergency kit' recommended contents-
1 charged dildo, extra large with extra batteries.
1 iPhone to tweet everyone with extra flash charger.
1 bottle vodka.
1 set knee pads in case Obungler or a central bankster is encountered.
I thought all I needed was a pair of scissors and to hide under a desk. That's where I've been since they gave that advice.
Don't knock it. My wife went out and bought more batteries and another lantern yesterday. And we've got a generator and 50 gallons of gas!
Don't forget the Fleshlights!
Terrorists!
Fuck NY.
And fuck all this attention to the effect of a g'damn snow storm.
And, and fuck terrorists, real or imagined.
Or manufactured.
And, and, fuck fuckers, you fuckers! Yeah! Fuck em'!
Fuuuuuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck. [She gestures like a rooster, strutting, puffing out her chest, craning her neck upwards with the release of each fuck].
Now that, is what I call giving more than just a fuck.
Eric Holder has threatened no-knock raids for any suburban white folks suspected of having spare batteries.
In this morning's press conference, Holder stated that "The threat posed to the homeland by flashlight-wielding Caucasians checking on their diabetic eldery neighbors at any time during a blizzard cannot be underestimated."
Holder added that in an emergency addendum to the Patriot Act, the posession of matches, candles, Band-Aids, and cans of stew have been added to the "mandatoy felony" provision of the existing law.
they will still use it as an excuse.
i mean come on, snow in jan, who has ever heard of that?
ppl here in ny are acting as if this is the storm of the century, etc, it pisses me off. its a fucking big snowstorm, we have seen this before here in ny, we r not getting 7 feet like buffalo did back in november, now that is serious shit
that's what happen with people having "overprotective" government
Media Government
Government Media
Zero impact on employment. 100% impact on Q1 figures.
Timestamp this:
The impact of the blizzard on municipal expenditures will be sufficient to put Meredith Whitney back on TV.
Also, considerable efforts will be made to prevent this crisis from "going to waste".
If anything, employment should rise, gotta have snow shovelers after all. And why would anyone lose their job because it snowed? Bunch of convoluted front running malarkey.
PS- go fuck ya self Joey LaBaloney! Timestamp that!
But, but, I had an interview set for tomorrow......
NYC is great place for the new glaciers to start........
That's just cold.
They are working overtime at the local grocery store stocking the shelves....good thing this isnt Venzualea..you would go hungry
Our local store closed recently, now I have to drive like 8 miles to a crappier store.
For fucks sakes!
Let them eat toilet paper and tampons.
Seasonal Adjustment Bitchez...
Even comments are getting snowed out.
Nice.
Cocaine is good for GDP, right? It's blowing outside, bitchez.
The real New York Snowstorm.
Who even cares about employment data anymore? If it beats, it's good news....if it misses, even better news!
Too many people out there with useless 'jobs' worrying about other people's jobs.
And best of all, most of the time, the employmnet data is an out and out LIE.
" Who cares about employment ? ... as long as my EBT card comes on time .... "
... is what I hear.
What jobs? Politicians? Banksters? Hope they get ebola blowjobs.
Good lord it's going to snow and these pansies get all wee-weed up. It would be funny if the weather service gets it wrong and it doesn't snow 3'.
I'm sure all the milk and bread is long gone by now.
I'd head to the beer&wine store myself.
Milk sandwiches are my favorite!!
Milk sandwiches are my favorite!!
... there's no business like snow business ...
The ego on that dude is galactic. I imagine his interest is with speaking, being listened to is irrelevant. His morning mirror pep talk has got to be YouTube worthy.
Here is what it will be like in NY. Same as Fergeson.
http://woundedamericanwarrior.com/watch-a-mob-of-180-people-trash-a-conv...
Shovel-ready jobs ....
The Zero Lower (snow) Bound
The mainstream investoriat would have us believe the fate of the whole world is in doubt because it's snowing in a corner of the U.S....
Kind of like they tell us that "consumption and spending in the Midwest" are VERY VERY IMPORTANT...
Lol, never gets old!
Who got the lucrative contract to plow Lavorgna's forehead?
Home Depot and Target are out of snow shovels and ice melt. The grocery store was getting crazy. Many people filling trucks and 5 gallon gas cans so the lines are 15- 20 minutes long. Liquor store did not have a long line yet. We are looking at potential 24+ inches. Anyone who has not figured out how to get a generator in the past 2 yrs. Is a fool. We tend to lose power for days from these storms yet people always cry about how long it takes to get the power back.
Thats bad news about the liquor stores...whats up with that?
I wonder if there would be any money to be made.if.I.loaded.my truck with 6500watt generators and manual trnsfer switches and headed to New Yawk each fall to install the setups.....
Can't we napalm the snow? Won't that make it go away? Yeah, that's the ticket, bring out the B52s and carpet bomb NYC with Napalm - OpERaTiON Snowless in New York.....
Maybe this year will be the warmest in history like last year... despite the polar vortex, record snow in Australia, snow in India, soonest ice pack on the Great Lakes ever, etc...
Whether or not it has an effect on employment numbers it will very definitely have an impact on Walmart and other retailers who will explain in their next quarterly results that the results were so much worse than expected solely because of this big storm.
Nail guns are not just for bankers.
Economists ought to be fair game.