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Why Oil Prices Will Be "Lower For Longer" In 3 Simple Charts
History may not repeat... but it does rhyme!
A pattern emerges - from investment to exploitation...
It's deja vu all over again...
And it's different this time...
Source: Goldman Sachs
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by trying to hold on to the market share they might just shoot themselves in the foot, GREED IS POWERFUL
Not to worry, Bernank just sent Yellen a brand new package of EPSON toners... we should be ready to rocket this black gold higher in no time, drill baby drill!
If QE was about creating serious consumer price inflation we could have had 6 years of a negative income tax rebate that would have spurred consumption. The reason inflation has been mostly confined to food and energy is that is where the speculators, the real targets of QE benefits, have been playing. That has reached it's natural end as without wage inflation demand at those speculator driven prices peaked last year and will continue dropping. Prices are now adjusting accordingly. This was and is the only possible outcome of QE as it was done.
Unless the FED starts doing helicopter drops, and they won't deflation will continue. This is by design. 2008 happened so fast that the oligarchy was ill prepared to take advantage of the deflationary cycle. The banks were under capitalized and so was the oligarchy, at least in terms of being able to swoop in and take over assets en mass, The echo bubble blown by QE has recapitalized the banks, moved their bad assets in to specuvestor hands and further enriched the oligarchy. Now they arer pulling the plug so that the .01% can feast on the deflationary carcass of our economy. In the words of Will Graham "This was their design."
Exactly!
They will own everything like the Bourbones.
Truthfully they already own everything! Bank+Government = Interest+Taxes ON EVERYTHING! This is why the REO rental model was bullshit and the REITs cashed out last year. Why own a property and be responsible for dealing with tenants, maintenance, etc when your REIT can buy low, roll into a rental backed security, liquidate your position in the REIT, and then buy the properties AGAIN after the crash to flip to the lowly home buyers who just wanna live there? Then our lovely banking industry gets 30 years of interest payments and .gov, as always gets their property taxes. And the happy homeowner after 15 plus years of RE insanity is happy to be a debt slave and HELOC every other Christmas to keep the economy bustling.
They own the only thing they ever needed to, and that is the money supply.
Correct. The futer tense is just to show that they can still fuck it up like the Bourbones did.
They were close in 2008.
The bottom in oil prices will be easy to spot. When Exxon make a major acquistion at one times cash flow that will be the bottom.
Exxon has been around through several cycles. Watch what they do.
Bob Dudley, CEO of the London-based company, announced the freeze in a message to employees Jan. 26. BP would not comment to Reuters, but a spokesman confirmed the freeze.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/01/26/bp-to-freeze-pay-worl...
Yes, I have to agree with Nil. If I was one of the NWO powerbrokers nearing the end game, I would want deflation. Scoop up the assests cheap, give a few bill to the millitary police and wait for it to end with a NWO cyber currency. No secrets, no IRS problems. Total control.
Very interesting analysis. Are you going to post your observation of this event and a link when you see it / ?
Agreed! Sell any rallies in WTI for now..
Let's see what happens when the majority of the "tenants" of the corporation of the united states of america start starving.
The former soviets have been through this before.
same as it ever was, until it isn't.
They own the money supply you say? what would that be exactly? FIAT comes and goes...
Yet the owners of the fiat stay the same and continue to run the game. I wonder why that is...
Bullshit, on what timeline? I think the asians may disagree.
Please, many people come and go in the club. With great chaos will come great opportunity. Don't be such a pessimist and pussy. No risk, no reward right?
interesting times.
I'm in the "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" crowd. Ethnicity is immaterial. The power is always in the hands of the "Big Club". If you aren't born into the oligarchy, your chances of joining the club are infinitesimal. Sure tomorrow's money masters may be Chinese, but it will surely be the Chinese that were already in power for generations. We are less than nothing to the lot of them.
Exactly. Wann know who the oligarchs of capitalist russia are? The same mother duckers who ran the USSR, or their children.
The experiment of America is over until Americans have a revolution of thought and all take the red pill, which simply will not happen. Our society is too drunk on comfort to see what's going on. We're doomed to serfdom (well, not me cause I been stacking).
China is in the process of being permanently locked into place as a 2nd rate economic power.
They'll never be allowed to obtain the third leg of the stool of 1st Nation economic status. By the time the dust settles, they'll be happy to export goods on the cheap indefinitely for 0% real wage growth and close to MAYBE 1% real GDP growth for each of the next 50 years.
Japan has been neutered, and South Korea is on deck.
The BRIC wall is being taken down, brick by brick, as we speak.
Well said. Globally, there is nothing but decline. If the US had its shit together, it could be in a position to maintain dominance for the next several decades...
I see Ben Bernanke logged in to give you your only down arrow.
As someone who provides REAL products that require REAL inputs (like diesel fuel). I still see plenty of inflation motherfucker.
6+ fucking years of giving free money (QE and ZIRP - ZIRP HAS NOT STOPPED either) to the fucking bankers and financiers and we wonder why none of it made it to main street, but somehow the political puppets also got a lot richer.
Apparently, people really are ignorant sheep to be slaughered after all.
As someone who provides REAL products that require REAL inputs (like diesel fuel). I still see plenty of inflation motherfucker.
What you aren't seeing is the type of broad inflation that should be seen vis-a-vis the liquidity the FED created, motherfucker.
And has not your diesel price dropped recently? Proves my point that it was unsustainable...
And nobody is going to be starving in the USA anytime soon. We're still burning our food as fuel for fucks sake! Stupidity is everywhere...
And seriously, don't come off as such a butthurt faggot because someone slightly disagrees with you. Makes you sound like... Well...
A fucking butthurt fag to be honest. :-)
Actually I thought we were saying the same thing. I didn't junk you but don't be giving yourself away now. And no, diesel has not come down significantly.
As far as starving goes, I recommend talking to the soviets about just how fast "low prices" becomes shortages.
Yes, prices were low for a long time, you just couldn't find anyone to actually provide shit. Go ahead fuck over the farmers, see what happens.
"winning"
That was under price controls. When you set the price well below the cost of production the result is an empty store. At some point if a free market is allowed between a willing seller and a willing buyer, neither being under any duress, that will determine the price. So while the Soviets produced less and less under forced or controlled labor no outside neighboring states or producers were willing to sell to them below their production costs.
I've been around a few years on this mudball... I've lost count of the number of "fucked over" farmers I was supposed to feel sorry for... from being at ground zero for Farm Aid to present, I've never seen a bigger group of fucking whiners in my life... agriculture is subsidized up to its eyeballs, if you can't make money farming then you really need to consider another line of work... hell, even the sharecroppers I know live better than I do...
Sorry if I misread Laws, but it seemed you were calling me a motherfucker for no good reason. If I failed to get you phonetically, I apologize for my acerbic retort :-)
Either way I agree with the exceptionally articulate response below. We are headed for deflation as the FED could have stimulated demand side inflation if they wanted to, but the didn't. They're telling you all you heed to know...
Remember the relatively good retail season around the 2010 tax cuts. That was demand side stimulating QE. At the same time houses bottomed that cycle. Why do you think they stopped? Putting that into overdrive surely would have gotten used higher inflation. Unless that's not what they really wanted...
You're correct, both in being acerbic to LoP (who is indubitably a touchy little jackass, even if he's pretty much right most of the time) and also about the money masters' choice of bailouts. They could have bailed out Main Street; this would have caused massive inflation in everything but financial assets... ie, the rich would have become (relatively) less rich.
Can't have that now, can we?
The only way this endless ass-reaming comes to an end is if the people understand the system and rise up.
I don't see that happening any time soon, do you? Though monetary consciousness seems to be on the rise, we're still a tiny percentage of the population.
Get out there and communicate, people. We need to be spending less time here, agreeing with each other, and more time on sites like Huffpo and The Guardian, castles of Statist thought. Lefties won't read Mises.org or ZH; but they will vociferously debate if you enter their castles and challenge their 'ideas' in the comments section.
Disagree on massive inflation. Helicopter Drop QE more than likely would have just slowed the job losses and maintained consumption levels closer to the peak. Only way you could've got demand driven CPI inflation would have been if QE caused consumption to exceed the 2007 peak. That wasn't happening unless they litterally went batshit crazy and dropped 10K plus in each and every citizens account. Even then you would have had a lot of people just pay down debt.
Well, the Fed added ~$3.3T to their balance sheet. If that had been spread across 330M housholds, that would have been $10,000 each!
Although he's a Keynesian, I do like Steve Keen's ideas on this subject. The Government just 'gifts' everyone $100,000 but if you're in debt you have to pay it down. This effectively acts as a debt jubilee but doesn't disadvantage savers at the expense of borrowers the way ZIRP does.
Diesel has come down very significantly; as everyone already knows. you really should just stay home in Mom's basement and stop pretending. (for ignorant of the laws of physics and everything else).
I run a small trucking company, see the monthly bills for Diesel.
Where are you buying your Diesel?
Wait, serfs, you thought QE was an attempt to fix the 'markets?'
Hahahha, it was to make US filthy rich while everyone else loses their ass, hahha!
Laws. I have to agree with Nihlist. Commodity retreat (just obseve the CRB), is symbolic ofnorhting short of delfation - price deflation that is. This should come as no surprise. It didn't work for FDR. Nor Nixon, or any other Keynsian monetarist. And the reason why you won't see price inflation is because debt is thwarting demand. the credit cycle bid up asset prices - as you would agree - and at the same time shouldered both HH and government with huge debt. QE fuels expenditures that are not backed by anyting durable or real. And now, as we've already contended on this site by many that therre simply isn't enough collateral to cover all the borrowed shorts that went long long. Its done. Its over. Stick a fork in it. I think where you have something that will remotely reflect price inflation will be hyper inflation which results in a loss of confidence in the currency - Ruble, Swissie, $Euro,$CDN to name a few. But that too is another matter.
Fact is, Lucas (1976) demonstrated that at the end of the day people's expectations (including firms), recognizing that increases in price are arriving not as a result of demand (volume), rather it is because of prices of assets being bid up as a result of QE. People and firms do not suffer from money illusion. In the case of consumers they will spend less to pay down debt, but, also to accommodate for future increases in taxes that they know is going to happen as a result of fical stimulus. Firms, recognizing that the demand pressure is not a result of volume (real demand), but as a result of price (which is a monetary phenomenon) will actually hire less, and not more people in an effort to preserve their income statement. There is a great piece done by Adrian Ravier showing an upward sloping Phillips curve where both inflation and unemployment rise after the initial short term party that ensues from QE. All that to say - a bet on inflation on is only a sure bet if unemployment is low to begin with and there is no debt.
Then maybe Putin's econ-intelligence on the West is much better than assumed, because the guys I know in the UAE believe it was the Russian invasion of Georgia that triggered the 2008 debacle less than a month later.
I do wonder if our government isn't selling oil into the open market, from the SPR, at a low price, and buying from domestic producers to refill the very same SPR at a higher price, off the market, with The Fed making up the difference in freshly printed USD, because that would be stealth QE for the US economy and an attack on our Russian enemies all in one swell foop.
This could help to keep the gold and silver markets down.
What is even better than Ben's Helicopter Money?
Mr. Yellen's Stealth QE!
all BS, it is stable for weeks now...
Frank Zappa - Trouble Every Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=girnJH7tvpM
.
.. no way to delay ..." f.z.
+1 he he heee. Mr. Yellen. sorry, but, i laugh every time. i know.....i'm already going to hell.
LLC to provide cap to S
"if our government isn't selling oil into the open market, from the SPR, at a low price, and buying from domestic producers to refill the very same SPR at a higher price"
I doubt it would even occur to anyone when you plug that into 'Russians'.
Now ~ if the same ploy were used to smash oil so that Goldman Sachs could fill up some SuperMax tankers & screw the muppets in a few years, then I'd believe it.
Obama's greatest blunder [Oilprice, y'day] : http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russian-Sanctions-Might-Be-Obamas-G...
Demand to drive in the US is low and has been declining for years.
Back then the manufacturing sector hadn't been moved abroad yet. While oil prices were high the oil sector was one of the last proitable production businesses.
With a third of the country not working why would they have to drive?
Peak oil never looks so apparent.
These guys don't read Peak Prosperity with its deep bench of analysts like Mattheson, CHS, Taggert, et al. Cause if they did, they'd know we're all screwed and we would have locked in our oil supply at $100/barrel instead of....oh wait.....
"Everyday is exploitation day.". That's why they call it a resource!
Everyone knows why prices rise.
When prices fall however they start grabbing their computer screens and shaking the holy heck outta 'em!
As soon as NWO removes PUTIN, MADURO AND ROUHANI from power gas will go back up. What NWO is doing to the price of gas is an act of war.
lol, big if, do the NWO residual elements have the power to pull the rug?
They can't even win the war in Syrac!
Fear not , citizens , you energy junk bonds gots em right where you wants em.
"He who picks buttom gets stinky finger." However QE4 is, in relative terms, moments away. Oil may go lower but it won't stay that way "forever". Never underestimate "the central bank's" ability to do the wrong thing for a long time.
The wrong thing for us,
the right thing for them!
The only reason Ddummer got the oil prices down via saudi was to put the fracking rigs out of action in America by the leveraged debt through junk bond's , once enough have shut down the price of oil will go back up. The rigs will not be able to start up again because of the lack of investor's and so he has killed another sector of the American economy and so weekening America for the up comeing war . The American people aginst Russia, China and the US corp, who needs to grab gun's when you can just kill everyone.
Here's crude going lower for longer in one simple chart - the monthly - pointing to 2003's $26/bbl.:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart
Well if you compaire the charts from 1980’s, you should also note that anybodywho bought oil stocks in the 80’s and 90’s made a shitload of money going into 2000.
And the difference than and now is that from a few superpower, we now have a lot of superpowers and 1 billion cars on the road.
the world changed to much to simply use a overlay graph.
And soon we’ll have QE 4 and than 5 and than 6. A lot of hot money.
It’s just popular to make fun about something when it’s down and sell the stocks and when it’s going up, people call those early buyers speculators.
It’s how the poor stay poor and the rich... well g richer.
Oil is a very wanted product and when production is being hammered down, you should buy.
Only stupid people believe the price will stayy this low.
Prepare to eat crow.
Has ISIS and other ME terrorist groups signed-off on those charts and the Saudi cheap oil playbook? Have the Iranians and their puppet terrorist groups agreed that the Saudi plan to keep prices low meets their needs? The ME is heating up. Overnight sudden debt’s predictions could come true. I would not bet against low prices lasting more than a year.
Plus you have to factor in the Tyler effect on the articles posted here.
I seem to remember less than a year ago an article proclaiming gasoline in the USA wasn't going below $3 /gallon ever.
Gotta love diversity!
LOL. Love you guys. I come here mostly not to comment but to understand. ..& learn.
Here is the real reason from my EX-NSA guy...
John Brennan's long familiarity with Saudi Arabia, owing to the time he spent there as the CIA station chief in Riyadh in the 1990s and his knowledge of Saudi oil operations, has paid off. WMR has learned that Brennan's agents inside Saudi Aramco convinced the firm's management and the Saudi Oil Ministry to begin fracking operations to stimulate production in Saudi Arabia's oldest oil fields. By pumping salt water into older wells, some at a depth of 3 to 6 thousand feet, an inordinate amount of pressure was built up. The CIA's oil industry implants knew what would occur when the fracking operations began. Due to the dangerously high water pressure, the Saudis were forced continuously pump oil until the pressure became equalized. That process is continuing. If the Saudis ceased pumping oil, they would permanently lose the wells to salt water contamination. In the current "pump it or lose it" situation, the Saudis are forced to pump at a rate that may take up to 5 years before they can slow down production rates.
The net result of the CIA-inspired fracking operations, which the Saudis were warned not to pursue by petroleum engineers working for some foreign-based firms like Schlumberger, is that there will be an oil supply glut for the next 5 years. The glut will be followed by a reduction in Saudi oil production unless new oil fields are brought on line. There is now a major push by U.S. and Canadian oil companies to bring the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the United States to offset the expected sharp rise in oil prices in five years.
The CIA operation to frack Middle Eastern oil fields was not only limited to Saudi Arabia. WMR has learned from oil industry sources that similar fracking caused over production problems in Kuwait and Iraq.
CIA engineered Saudi overproduction by fracking old wells.
The result of the sudden decline in oil prices has resulted in heavy damage to the economies of the CIA-targeted countries of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Brennan and his economic warfare operatives banked on the Saudi over-production to harm the economies of all three countries and the CIA has not been disappointed. The CIA figures that the governments of Vladimir Putin in Russia, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran, and Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela will have long since collapsed and been replaced by pro-Western regimes within 5 years. Already, from his base in Switzerland, exiled Russian tax evader billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky has called for Putin's overthrow and even his assassination. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration have taken cues from the CIA to impose devastating economic sanctions on both Russia and Venezuela. Similar congressional legislation to increase sanctions on Iran is pending.
Russia has been harmed the most by the CIA's Saudi oil production scheme. The Russian ruble fell 56 percent in value against the U.S. dollar while Russian interest rates climbed to 17 percent. The price of shares of Russia's largest lending bank, Sberbank, fell 18 percent. Although the Russian economic collapse has resulted in financial ripples around the world, with Austrian and French banks losing their stock values and the value of the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint falling against the dollar, the Obama administration says that there will be no easing on economic sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine. Obama has put the investments of American holders of Russian bonds in dire jeopardy.
The Pacific Investment Management Company's (PEBIX) Emerging Markets Bond Fund, which holds over $800 million in Russian bonds, has lost almost 8 percent in value in the past few weeks.
Russian Central Bank vice chairman Sergei Shvetsov said, "What is happening is a nightmare that we could not even have imagined a year ago."
Meanwhile, basic staples in Venezuela, including cooking oil, rice, and corn flour, are becoming hard to obtain. The U.S. dollar has jumped 1700 percent in value against the Venezuelan bolivar on the black market. The CIA is using the financial collapse to push for an undemocratic overthrow of the Venezuelan government.
Iran, which has been under punitive Western economic sanctions for a number of years over its nuclear power program, is probably best able to weather the storm. Iran has built up a rather impressive domestic food production, telecommunications, and oil industry infrastructure to survive the sanctions. However, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani appears very aware of the Saudi role in the conspiracy to drive down oil prices. Rouhani recently said, "The main reason for [the oil price plunge] is [a] political conspiracy by certain countries against the interest of the region and the Islamic world and it is only in the interest of some other countries . . . Iran and people of the region will not forget such conspiracies, or in other words, treachery against the interests of the Muslim world.”
Brennan's and the CIA's industrial sabotage of the Saudi and other Middle East oil industries will continue to have far-reaching effects on the world economy. Oil industry insiders fear that the CIA has unleashed something that may deal a devastating blow to the global economy.
^^^ What is this BS?
1.) No one is fracking highly permeable reservoirs with anything, let alone salt water to "dangerous pressures that need to be equalized". This doesnt make any sense.
2.) Its called water flooding, its normal oilfield practice. When the reservoir pressure drops because there is little gas cap, or the oil has been produced reducing the reservoir pressure you pump in water to replace the oil and raise the pressure. This is ancient technology.
3.) its not fracking FFS... FFFF
4.) Saudi has kept its production steady while their domestic consumption has risen. It's well documented that the USA, Canada, Iraq, Russia have all massively increased their production. Stop singing this retarded narrative that somehow this is Saudi over-producing. Why aren't you pointing the finger at the USA, Canada, Russia or Iraq?
The Saudis have been pumping sea water into the wells for years. Its a technique to gain that last drop. I don't know about pressure or increases, but the water pumping is real.
FORWARD ALLAH!
>would permanently lose the wells to salt water contamination
oil and water dont mix....how will seawater contaminate oil (which floats if I remember correctly?)
I think it probably does; since it's routine to pump seawater into the fuel oil bunkers to keep the ships trim stable while burning tons of fuel oil a day. He's just another make believe expert; a legend in his own mind.
Haha, CIA front-run the oil collapse, shorted oil and made big bucks.
they may have, but there were hell of a lot easier ways to do that than the process the OP describes, which is ludicrous
I think you are unnecessarily grim about the situation in five years. And that you give Brennan too much credit.
First, I'm pretty sure you meant 'enhanced oil recovery' and not fracking.
EOR has been around since the first Texas oil millionaire saw his monthly checks start to decrease. Petroleum engineers have been improving the methods of EOR for quite a while and when the world briefly touched 'peak oil' in 2005, producers became very serious about it.
John O Brennan became Director of the CIA in March 2013. No doubt this plan was in play before then.
In your litany of the catastrophes about to break over the heads of the primary enemies of the West, who are the thralls of the US, you neglect to predict the behavior of China and India, where the Obuzzard just visited.
It's a mistake to think that 2 nations with 40% of the world's population will let the West behead Russia, Iran and Venezuela so THAT THEY CAN BE NEXT TO PUT THEIR HEADS ON WASHINGTON'S SILVER SALVER.
it will go lower and stay lower until putin cries uncle ...
Tyler
On the second chart.
The marks for the years on the bottom axis are off by a year.
You correctly say the highest price for oil was in June 2008 (actually it was July 2008) but your chart shows it as 2007.
Have a nice day.
The chart says it is from BEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Not his chart, but good catch.
In yee olde days, oil exploration was about finding 'the big one'. So it did take years to explore and exploit a major oil field. Many of those find were in deep water. The BIG difference today is that there are few new major oil fields being found -- instead it is all about fracking a little bit of oil from a LOT of places. We already know the places -- so there is minimal time needed to re-ramp production -- if you are still in business and you can borrow a little cash.
As with most Goldman 'calls' -- this is WAY late, we are likely close to or at the bottom, and is intended only to set up Goldman's long oil positions.
Still plenty of oil offshore, but Chalky can't wipe out the US if that oil was allowed.
Nice to keep ours and burn theirs tho; and he won't be around for ever. Be careful and don't let Ms. Clinton in tho; or you'll be all done.
93 million bbl per day market. 1 million bbl frm shale doesn't equal a 60% drop in price. This is demand driven, as in the percetion is that the worldwide economy goes south, and there's no demand.
To be more precise, 1M bbl per day from Bakken alone. More from Eagle Ford, etc.
NRBQ- "Get Rhythm"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u8UmdH_CM4
oil will go to $20 and stay there
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOR3bdRJo98
hey, why not 10$, or 5$. Obama may even pass some new executive order for free gas for everybody. Forever.
It's alright to have strange thoughts; just don't bet any money on t hem and you';ll be alright.
Old mother hubbard says its transitory.
Uh... I'd say that the world's oil producers are: 1. A little crazier than in the prior years these charts depict, and 2. Probably a bit more desperate after seenig $50/bbl disappear into money heaven in 5 months.
Somewhere, someday, we're going to wake up to news that a pipeline or refinery or (fill in the blank) just blew up and oil will be limit bid for a week.
wait until the aliens give us
a lunch box sized free energy device....
oil will be only good for low grade lubrication
basically worthless... a filthy outdated relic..
The oil companines and oligarchies will destroy (or attempt to) anything or anyone that profers an alterative (with EROI greater than Unity *sorry solar/wind) such as you miracle lunch box.
If the aliens want to fuck with the oligarchy, they'd better be bringin heat. That's all I'm sayin'/
Meanwhile Iran dumps USD....
Iran is stopping mutual settlements in dollars with foreign countries and agreements on bilateral swap in new currencies will be signed in the near future, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has said.
http://rt.com/business/225919-iran-switches-from-dollar/
We have to go in there and get rid of that regime that hates us for our freedom, don't you know? They're supporting terrorists. We have to fight them over there because. Wait what?
America? FUCK YEAH!
If they're going to be "lower for longer", then that probably means the pols will try to implement higher, direct taxes, rather than rely on inflation. They've already started to, including Republicans, stumping for a hgiher gas tax. Look for other taxes from these government meddlers to try to pass, perhaps even a VAT.
they aren't going to be lower for longer; it's a 50% probability that the bottom is already in.
You forgot to site/credit your sphincter for that statistic.
sounds more like a possibility
than a probability...
if china winds up takin' all vlad can pull out of the ground it's lights out for the west.
once everybody is convinced it will go to 20, it will actually go to 80.
TPTB can suppress black gold just like the yellow stuff. Crude oil prices are a product of financial alchemy. Death to the profligate bankers.
Because "It's" (on the Western side).....
Gone!
Depth of North Sea fields discovered 40 years ago - 100 to 700 ft. Depth of North Sea fields coming online today - 1 mile. I guess the vampire squid thinks producers can sell at a loss at $20 for as long as they like and make it up on volume.
bunch of bullshit.
zh said nothing about oil being 'overvalued' half a year ago and had plenty of peak oil garbage articles, as well as articles about 'unsustainable' natural gas bubble and shale oil bubble.
now you see prices about oil being dead and staying dead. nah, the prices of oil are both a weapon and a pressure point. there is no one in the world yet pressuring the petrodollar significantly, ...yet.
america is a massive producer of oil ,and if you include american satraps such as norway, mexico, and saudi arabia, and sultan of brunei--------nato umbrella production is not under threat of attack.
oil prices will remain unpredictable . i'm not buying this bullshit about them being obviously down for the count for the next couple years. there is plenty evidence to suggest prices remain unpredictalbe and subject to petro war.
for example, if assad falls, the price of oil will go back up without question as the u.s. nato and europe WIN their targe, they can then afford to lift prices of oil so the gulf states can reinvest their profits into an ISIS or other ISIS lite governmetn in syria, i.e. they can raise oil prices in order to build the pipelines through syria to europe for oil and natural gas to kick russias ass.
Good thinking. A bit strange in a whole page of know nothings. I make it 50% that the bottom is already in. As for Goldman telling you the truth about their "best guess"; you've gotta be joking. Zero-Hedge is Journalism, it runs on page clicks.
bunch of bullshit.
zh said nothing about oil being 'overvalued' half a year ago and had plenty of peak oil garbage articles, as well as articles about 'unsustainable' natural gas bubble and shale oil bubble.
now you see prices about oil being dead and staying dead. nah, the prices of oil are both a weapon and a pressure point. there is no one in the world yet pressuring the petrodollar significantly, ...yet.
america is a massive producer of oil ,and if you include american satraps such as norway, mexico, and saudi arabia, and sultan of brunei--------nato umbrella production is not under threat of attack.
oil prices will remain unpredictable . i'm not buying this bullshit about them being obviously down for the count for the next couple years. there is plenty evidence to suggest prices remain unpredictalbe and subject to petro war.
for example, if assad falls, the price of oil will go back up without question as the u.s. nato and europe WIN their targe, they can then afford to lift prices of oil so the gulf states can reinvest their profits into an ISIS or other ISIS lite governmetn in syria, i.e. they can raise oil prices in order to build the pipelines through syria to europe for oil and natural gas to kick russias ass.
Low hanging fruit is picked. That's why these charts don't mean shit bc that's all you're looking at. The price will stay under 75 bbl until the last shale driller is bled dry or bk'd then the move higher begins in earnest. Malinvestment exposed
This chart looks kinda like this chart.
So this time the outcome must be the same as last time.
Fooled by randomness, yet again...
CNBC Video - E.D. Rothschild with Maria Bartiromo
Evelyn De Rothschild Warning Masses - Too Late (Holding Bonds, Oil, Gold)| Dec 18, 2008
G-20 was not a successful jumpstart under Evelyn guidelines.
Lower for longer? No mention of what "longer" constitutes. The lower is temporary and that is DESPITE slowing global economy.
#1 Speculators love oil. The algorithms for popping oil a dollar or five everytime someone farted in the middle east has been legion.
#2 All the easy oil has been discovered. The difficult oil takes EXTRAORDINARY amounts of energy to acquire.
#3 War is extremely oil intensive - War wastes oil like no other activity on the planet.
#4 Once OPEC drives debt ridden shale oil producers into oblivion, the sky is the limit for the price. Why? Do we have a transportation/manufacturing/agricultural substitute for oil? Nope.
#5 Driving up the price of oil is the EASIEST method for skimming money from the peons and peasants in the world.
#6 The world population NEVER stops growing, no matter how much famine, disease or war that we have and unless you are stranded on some desert isle, you probably use oil in some fashion.
Invest in gold or oil? Oil is gold and infinitely more consumable.
buying those volts and tesla's makes one smart until you drive by a gas station and see the price. suckers suckers is the sound their tires make going round and round..
You sound like one of those guys who thinks because fuel is cheap now then it is a grreat time to buy a 3 ton pick up. In a year (or 3) the odds are the price at the pump will be much higher and your 40 grand pick up (that you purchased on credit with payments over 7 years) will be worth 4 grand as who wants to spend $200 filling it up.
you sound like a volt owner those tires whisper" sucker sucker sucker "as they go round.
But the Toyota Pious is such a great car!
Corrolas, Camrys and Tercels will never match the Pious in terms of longevity or eco-smugness.
If Russia really wanted to raise the oil price - they don't - they would send a few "terrorists" to cripple a few Saudi pump stations. If such an event should come about, the market would suddenly be short of a few mbd.
Long live King Rootin Tootin.We want our Mummy.
Vlad prefers low oil prices when he's queueing up to the pump in his aging Russian car. He's a bit of a maintenance freak, frequently changing the oil and filters - and sometimes the entire engine! - whilst waiting for his steed to finish fueling up.
Comparing this oil price dip to the one in the 80's might be misleading. So it is no surprize that Goldman is doing exactly that.
This dip seems to be both supply and demand driven. Weaker growth in China and stagnation in Europe is combined with new supply from frakking. Shale oil production will taper off a lot faster than North Sea oil did in the 80's and 90's. So I think this dip will be a lot shorter than the 80's version.
Is Goldman trying to get everyone expecting another decade long slump so they will have a clear field to load up on cheap oil companies and distressed oil debt?
Compare your income, taxes, and healthcare costs from 2013 to 2014.
Weep for the future. The fucking leeches are killing the host.
Live as a battery powering the sluggards and looters, or die a patriot. Decision time is near.
The end of oil is soon coming and will terminate human civilization. Forever.
Worse, if there's enough oil, we shall burn it all and poison the atmosphere and oceans with enough CO2 to terminate all life on Earth.
What's coming at us will be the biggest catastrophe in human history either way it shakes out.
CO2 is plant food, not poison.
try breathing it.
try finding o2 without the plants converting the co2.
it is all connected.
Matt Savinar? Ruppert posting from the grave?
PO was my first exposure to 'doom' long ago. My views about haven't changed.
No doubt our society is dependent on black gold and a sudden absence of it would cause problems. But I never subscribed to the Savinar-like forecasts of doom(See "Life after the oil crash").
Just a ratcheting grind downward for our standard of living (been right on the money on that bet) and a gradual destruction of the petro dollar what will ultimately result in all those USDs overseas coming home to roost and ending in destruction of the green paper coupons with funny occult symbols on them.
When paper wealth evaporates it will be like the tide going out and we'll see that most of our neighboring bathers are wearing no swim trunks.
If you don't hold it, or can't locate it with yoru personal submersible or scuba gear, then you don't own it.
Well call me naive and all, but the blatant attack on silver at 1900 hrs is pretty impressive although short-lived!!
Hi Ho SILVER ... away!!!!
what on earth are you babbling about?
With what? Mystery?
There's nothing mysterious about an enormous supply and an evaporating demand.
News on JUNO: Curfew!
Panic-buyers clear New York City stores of food ahead…
LATEST:
http://tersee.com/#!q=New+york&t=text
Do Television stations exist soley to peddle fear and sell advertisements?
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2251403960/Philosoraptor.gif
Oil will be lower for a long time because the USA wants it. It is that simple. The BRICS have to go!! They were getting too strong and their governments are not 100% American friendly. With low oil prices Russia will get down to its knees. Lower oil will bring manufacturing and industries back to America and Europe. This will bring China to its knees. Brazil and the MERCOSUR ( venezuela etc) without China buying their commodities will go broke. India and South Africa are more neutral so they may scape more or less unharmed.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/
Sort by inflation high to low and there are all the BRICS and unfriendly
what ru smokin?
Always "funny" that these charts (the GS one in that case) never mention US peak in 1970 (top producer by far at the time) as the primary reason of the first oil schock.
(with the exit from Bretton Woods in 1971)
A bit more detailed summary about the first oil shock :
- end 1970 : US production peak, the energy crisis starts from there, with some heating fuel shortages for instance (some articles can be found on NYT archive on that)
- Nixon named James Akins to go check what is going on
- Akins goes around all US producers, saying this won't be communicated to the media, but needs to be known, national security question
- The results are bad : no additional capacity at all, production will only go down, the results are also presentede to the OECD
- The reserves of Alaska, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, are known at that time, but to be developed the barrel price needs to be higher
- In parallel this is also the period of "rebalance" between oil majors and countries on each barrel revenus.
- So to be able to start Alaska, GOM, North Sea, and have some "outside OPEC" market share, the barrel price needs to go up (always good for oil majors anyway) and this is also US diplomacy strategy
- For instance Akins, then US ambassador in Saudi Arabia, is the one talking about $4 or $5 a barrel in an OAPEC meeting in Algiers in 1972
- Yom Kippur starts during an OPEC meeting in Vienna, which was about barrel revenus percentages, and barrel price rise.
- The declaration of the embargo pushes the barrel up on the spots markets (that just have been set up)
- But the embargo remains quite limited (not from Iran, not from Iraq, only towards a few countries)
- It remains fictiv from Saudi Arabia towards the US : tankers kept on going from KSA, through Barhain to make it more discrete, towards the US Army in Vietnam in particular.
- Akins is very clear about that in below documentary interviews (which unfortunately only exists in French and German to my knowledge, and interviews are voiced over) :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fQJ-0jAr3LQ
For instance after 24:10, where he says that two senators were starting having rather "strong voices" about "doing something", he asked the permission to tell them what was going on, got it, told them, they shat up and there was never any leak. The first oil schock "episode" starts at 18:00
(the "embargo story" was in fact very "pratical", both for the US to "cover up" US peak towards US public opinion or western one in general, but also for major Arab producers to show "the arab street" that they were doing something for the Palestinians).
If this was a bit more known, maybe current propaganda "US energy boom, peak oil is dead, etc" would be a bit tougher to convey.
About Akins, see for instance :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/26/AR201007...
And his key article in April 73 “The oil crisis : this time the wolf is here” :
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil/NEW_SCHOOL_COURSE2005/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf
The report he did for Nixon after US peak (and that was also presented to the OECD) is still classified to my knowledge. It would be interesting to know if it could be declassified now, isn’t there a 30 years limit or something for this ?
See article below prob bit over stated but the rebellion in Yemen is Shite lead (ie backed by Iran maybe Russia)
IF theres going to be a crisis point it could be here as Iran ect trys to use them to destabalise Saudi (and as one guy said above cause oil to pop).
It seems obvious to take Saudis off line partially would be an objective.
The lines are clear Iran Russia and Assad in Syria (he could turn to US side) with Hezbolla / and now Yemen Shite group as proxies whats bit bizzar is Isis seems to be on US side (Sunni) as they have been fighting 1) Assad (backed by Russia and Iran) and also the new govt in Iraq was leaning prob Shite / Iran before Isis magically appreared and forced Govt change (elected govt that was)...
but maybe US can keep Saudi safe.. that is the obvious target..
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/01/26/Yemen-s-Hout...
" whats bit bizzar is Isis seems to be on US side (Sunni) "
where have you been, mate?
zh and many others have pegged this one for months.
ISIS is an American "Wet Dream and Creation!"
When is everyone going to get that through their head?
I just mean in the sense Hezbollah / new Yemen Shite group and Asad Syria are all backed by Iran in public.. and Isis is basically the pro Saudi (Sunni) group I mean its bit strange because they have made them so ruthless when they could have just been an armed group (like Irans 3) but that acted on behalf of Saudi/US.. maybe because of the implication for western influence they have tried to portray them as some bizzaer sub group that popped out of no where fights exclusesivly for US/Saudi interest (their fighting Hezbollah/Asad in Syria .. as said old Shite Govt in Iraq)...but strangly we are expected to believe their anti Saudi / US.. thats the bizzar bit...
one thing US Saudis might do is an Isis false flag on sudi so at least they control the timing and event.
Again more trash here based on no thought.....with 0.5% of dialy oversupply u compare today with 80's with no thought whatsoever....was this level the same back then...NO.....further the price currently is no where near 70 the level required to resume prod nevermind support it...u people dont have a gd clue as to what is the normalize price. Opec does not have spare capacity vs then either.....so where tyler is the oil going to come from as demand grows 1m bbd each year?
Hey Tyler wake up.... FCX commentary from eps call.....
Cap ex down 33% in 2015 E&P
LOL FCX CASH margins $38/ BOE GOM $43/BOE-------idios calling for $30……..thats cash never mind production increases this the result………
production 2015 55 vs 57 DOWN
i repeat DOWN
Why not write more positively about current prices and have a more optimistic assessment from the point of view of the consumer who will be able to forget payday loans on SterlingStore site for some time? We already know that these low prices are unsustainable in the long term. Take somtime to provide more optimistic and simultaneously realistic predictions for the future. It is well known that the media plays a big role in affecting big business decisions such as where to set the price of gas.