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Consumer Confidence Surges To Highest Since The Last Time Markets Crashed
Despite stagnant wages, surging jobless claims, and global geopolitical anxiety, US consumers have not been this exuberant since August 2007... a month before the great quant fund blow-up and the top of US equities... But it's different this time, we're got money-printing and low oil prices... right? Texas confidence plunged from 119.4 to 111.9 (led by a huige crash in expectations from 95.8 to 83.5). Finally, expectations for higher incomes in the next 6 months surged higher - almost at record levels of hope - despite the slump in hourly average earnings.
Highest since Aug 2007
The last time Consumers were this confident marked the top in US equities and the imminent crash of the quant funds...
And finally the hope for higher income remains its stringest almost ever... in the face of an ugly reality...
Charts: Bloomberg
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The big question is: If all the production will be automatized (even the services sector), who will consume the products? Are we going to a model that most of the people will be receiving unemployment benefits just to survive and consume?
The proves all the more that the average person is a moron.
The masses are always wrong.
The masses like cheap gas, GZ. That's what this is and nothing more.
Have you ever been asked to participate in this poll? Exactly, me neither.
i bet no one even do it
I wasn't asked to give my rating in the latest gallup presidential approval poll either....otherwise it may have been only 49%
Why do I think that the workers are filling out the surveys themselves and not actually calling anyone? Didn't this same thing happen a few years ago?
I too wonder about these numbers, but it's true I'm hearing more hope on the street. Part of it is that hard times have gone on so long people are worn out and the story is things are going to get better because they just have to. Part is that it's been so long since we've seen good times here (really, since about 2001) that a little uptick in hiring looks like a mountain. Part is that they're just plain scared and in need of reassurance. Folks who totally don't trust Obama want so much to believe his sweet lies. I can relate!
I tell people what's going to happen and that we need to be getting ready for a blow, they look at me like a kook. I can't afford to be branded a kook, but I'm sticking to my story because I'm pretty confident about it.
The answer is:
The machines will start trading goods and services with each other and kill off most of the human race except for a few thousand kept in zoos.
But they too will learn greed and deceit in time.
But they'll destroy each other in a few minutes instead of the few years us inferior humans take to do it.
A greedy Skynet? Now wouldn't that make an interesting movie plot....
Just further proof that everything can be and is manipulated.
Someone is high on crack when they are formulating these numbers. I look around at people I interact with daily and all I see is stress and sadness in their faces. These numbers are sooooo BOGUS.
You have to look at exactly how the numbers were created. I took a class in advanced statistical analysis several years ago a the the teacher taught us exactly how stuff like this is cooked up. You give me the proper dataset and I can give you any answer you want.
This book written in 1954 exposes it all.
http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728
Either that, which will never work, or the herd gets a serious thinning.
A Judas goat is a trained goat used in general animal herding. The Judas goat is trained to associate with sheep or cattle, leading them to a specific destination. In stockyards, a Judas goat will lead sheep to slaughter, while its own life is spared.
The new definition of the FED.
Once they're all dependent, you can feed them whatever you want. ;)
Have you not seen the movie The Matrix? That is where we're headed. At least I can look forward to gettting plenty of sleep.
Wow, just like 2007 again. I think I know where we are going from here, and it's not looking good.
I'm calling markets green by the end of the day....
Who believes these fucking "confidence" numbers. People aren't buying shit - there's your true confidence number.
Anything saying it's going higher is a flat out lie ... which would shock the hell out of me that we've been lied to.
Don't be silly, all we need to do is pass a law letting people gamble their EBT balance on the stock market, and we can get people buying again.
They asked people "Would you like to be able to buy a Cadillac?" and most questioned answered yes because that implies getting a job they don't have at present.
who here actually believes this measures real consumer confidence? anyone?
Not saying it is, but people tend to flow with a trend.......gas prices are waaaay down, that could be a big part of this.
Does it really matter?
I am extremely confident, that economy is going down the shithole. And with all this talk of deflation I still seem to be paying more at the supermarket as well as another yearly increase in my supply costs
Oh I'm sure it does, it's just that confidence doesn't mean all that much.
Every bar is full of 'confident' guys, most of whom have zero business being so outside the confines of their own minds.
Looks like it is time to shear some sheep.....
It's not going to get any better for them, can't get any more Hopium or more all-in fully leveraged than right now, time to shear the steeple.
You're gonna make Benny Hinn pay taxes too?
Obama told the muppets the crisis has passed, so it must be true
Keep turning the page, bitchez.
Here is what I think. I talked to 3 guys that did work at my house in last 6 months and all said the same thing. Yes they were happy with their 2014 results.
The cabinet guy. We had a good year compared to the past but we were 75% of what we did in 2006 and 2007. So yes he is happy but his business is not where it was.
The Gutter guy, Had a good year. Less competition. Many guys in the business folded between 08-10 and I was able to stay afloat. Most of my competition is working at Home Depot now. Not nearly as many independent builders.
The Counter Top guy, We had one of our best years. Less people in the business and people were spending their stock market money on Granite and other house upgrades.
Common theme, less competition many people folded, Those that are left enjoying the uptick from the lows. All felt we would never have the 05-08 housing market again. So. the PIE is smaller but those with work doing OK. So it really depends who you survey. Go survey all the out of work and out of business companys and they might get a different storey.
My buddy who does home renovation and general contractor work in southern Missouri is doing really well right now.
I'm starting to question ZH's headlines. Dow down around 300 points. Where's the bloodbath? I'm strting to wonder if Martin Armstrong is actually correct. He predicted that the stock market would "tread water" until 2015.75, much to the frustration of all.
You don't think the algos are trying to hold the line?
A better musing would be why, with all the negative information, isn't the market plunging?
We already know the answer to that one!
easy to follow as herd of birds..
That should be in a fortune cookie. My indicator is the frequency of contacts by Fidelity trying to get me to push more money into the pot. Anyone else get invited to their telecons in 2007, telling their 401K investors to stay the course? I wish I still had those emails, there are a couple shills that I would like to send annual email to.
Here is how these surveys are performed:
Interviewer: "Sir, did you get laid last night?"
Person A: "Uh, no."
Interviewer: "Ok, thanks, just asking."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Interviewer: "Sir, did you get laid last night?"
Person B: "Fuck yeah I did! I am the MAN!"
Interviewer: "Cool. You feeling confident about the economy?."
Person B: "Fuck yeah I am! I am the MAN!"
Hell yeah, that's what I do. Market crashing, I go shopping. Of course I'm using OPM; it's addictive. ;-)
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
The amount of goods shipped as indicated by that there Baltic Index is pretty bleak. Thnx for the charts.
High wage expectations would fuel the recent rise in PMs. Its not the actual getting but the expecting that counts.
Completely fabricated and manipulated survey. Wages have been stagnant and/or falling behind for years. EVERYONE who works for a living knows this - I know a LOT of poeple who work in trades and have family who are blue collar - we're all struggling to save any money - prices continue to rise along with taxes slowly bleeding our savings away.
They only interview those FSA individuals getting free money/phones/etc. who are programmed robots parroting everything their handlers say. They just need a statistic to point to this afternoon when the Fed' backs up the executive office's state of the union address and the market skyrockets into the green.
yep...(or working for .gov)
Exactly. Aggregate income or go home. I can't find the stat for 'jobs created worth telling other people about'.
I live in NYC and have a lot of friends in SF (used to live there from 1999-2002).... a LOT of the people that I interact with outside of the financial business believe the nonsense that we are in a recovery. A lot of my friends are reasonably intelligent people, but somehow they are completely fucking blind about all this. It says a lot about, 1.) the microcosms of NY, SF, and probably other big cities that have been slightly insulated from the malaise, and 2.) the absolutely brilliant spin job that O's administration is doing.
I'm sick of telling people to watch out and that we're due for another correction. In November/December I sold my place, bought plenty of physical gold, and bought as many XLF/SPY puts as I can stomach (eating theta in face of central bank printing is a scary trade). I will let my money do the talking from here on out....
The masses are mostly ... WRONG. One who faith in the opinion of the masses belongs to the masses.
Consumer Confidence levels is The most useless chart imho.
consumer confidence up - real wages down
WTF are they smokin'?
there you go barry - economy all better now you fucking communist pig!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They're confident ? About what ?
Can it really be that Americans are this duped!? Their incomes have fallen badly since 2008 and show no sign of growing. The only new highpaying jobs in the energy fields are being destroyed by low oil prcies. Major retailers are laying off, closing stores. McDonalds is losing profits, WalMart sees fewer customers, YETm consumer confidence is high! Well fuck me!
So much for the poll of the top 1%. Now, how about the rest of the population?