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The Next "Tom Stolper" Has An FX Reco For You: Buy USDJPY
In the epic alpha vacuum left in the absence of the worst, pardon, best FX "analyst" of all time, Goldman's legendary Tom Stolper, whose perpetual fading helped us and countless readers generate some 10,000+ pips in profits in the years when he was actively crucifying muppets on Goldman's payroll, most were confused how to make profits with absolutely no risk in the FX sapce. And ever since when rading alongside major central banks led to career-ending outcomes as recently as 2 weeks ago, it seemed that the entire FX space was merely populated by algos and other robots who would merely frontrun each other's cluelessness in perpetuity.
We are happy to report that the P&L drought may have finally ended, and we have none other than the man many have suggested could be next in line for the title of honorary "Tom Stolper" of the FX realm: BofA's technical strategist MacNeill Curry. Moments ago, Curry came out with a trade reco which is, not surprisingly, just in line with what the vast consensus, and not to mention the Bank of Japan, thinks: long USDJPY, aka the trade that is directly proportional to multiple expansion for the entire US stock market, and number of bankrupt Japanese corporations.
This is what Curry had to say:
Buy $/¥. It is about to break out from its week long range
For the past week, $/¥ has been caught in a 118.72/117.32 contracting range / Triangle formation. Now, that range is about to complete for a push towards 119.78/120.36. Perhaps most compelling is the risk to the trade. Price should not trade below the Jan-25 low at 117.27. Below here invalidates the bullish setup and results in a larger, choppier range than anticipated. Bigger Picture, we remain BULLISH. The long term uptrend remains incomplete for a push towards 124.16/124.59. Above the Dec-23 high at 120.83 says the long term bull trend has resumed.
Buy $/¥ at market (now 117.80), risk 117.25, target 119.78, potentially120.36
So: will USDJPY tumble promptly back down to 117.25 at which point Curry will be Stolpered out, and we can crown the next market-moving "Stolper" whose every reco will be the source of much mirth and joy in the new and improved "bandits" and "cartel" chat room, or will the forces of momentum-chasing vacuum tubes win, and the quest for the next Stolper continue unsuccessfully? We hope to have an answer in the next 2-3 days.
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"actively crucifying muppets" I literally lol'd
I always thought that, and recently there was really no sense "hanging around" these markets...
Is there anything google image search can't find?
WTF is with the fried egg and bottle of gin?
Wow, unfortunately I am grafically challenged.
I hope he puts his own money were his mouth is.
Be nice to know.
Who can't wait to trade currencies after the SNB debacle. On the other hand long dollar over yen has done really well. Don't understand how collapsing energy prices help Japan. No one benefited more from OPEC oil embargo than Tokyo.
'Curry'd muppet' soon to be a new menu item down at the Giant Squid cafeteria.
japan should benefit mightily from the lower import costs of oil which has dropped 50% in the last six months in US dollar terms and maybe 30% in yen terms.
i notice the struggle to say which side of the trade to take. long dollar against yen is good, long $/yen is not especially when the fx rate is quoted as number of yen per dollar (most rates are quoted as 1US$ buys x of a currency, except notably sterling and euro which are 1 pound or 1 euro = x dollars
the sterling euro rate is dealt 1 euro = x pounds, and not 1 pound buys x euros. so a falling sterling/euro rate = euro weakness
i noted a whole plethora of commentators struggling with which way round the euro v swiss was quoted.
it's a bit easier if you remember its 1 euro buys x swissy and that rate going down is swissy strength, not swissy weakness. (a euro buys less swissy, so that means the euro is weaker.
the good old BBC in the UK always quotes upside down
the easy way to quote is number of one currency per number of another currency and look for direction that way.
dollar/yen is backwards and should be yen/dollar, then you sell dollars to buy yen at that fx rate and vice versa.
just saying
japan has bowed deep and low, elements in that country must be crushed at this point, maybe their sins were "washed" away and they see they must obey.
Who in the name of sweet fuck would take an FX position on an analysts' say so? Really? People do that? People with so much money they can't figure out which bin to throw it in.