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"Shadow Of The Crisis Has Not Passed": Durables Goods Orders Collapse
Following November's across the board ugliness in Durable Goods data, the hockey-stick extrapolators all positioned for the bounce back... Only 1 of 57 economists expected a negative print! But the actual data was a total disaster. Against expectations of a 0.3% rise (following last month's 0.7% drop), December printed down 3.4% and November was revised drasticaly lower to down 2.1%. This is the lowest durable goods ex-transports since March.
The breakdown:
- Durables: -3.4%, Exp. +0.3%, Last revised from -0.7% to -2.1%
- Durables ex transports: -0.8%, Exp. +0.6%, Last revised from -0.4% to -1.3%
- Core Cap Goods Orders: -0.6, Exp. 0.9%, Last revised from 0.0% to -0.6%
- Core Cap Goods Shipments: -0.2%, Exp. 1.0%, Last revised from 0.2% to -0.5%
And the ugliness in charts:
and Uglier.
And ugliest: on a Y/Y basis, November durable goods were revised to negative - usually a harbinger of a recession.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Just what the Fed needed to put off rate hikes and bring round that QEasy feeling...
Yep. It's just bad enough to be good.
Liesman explained it all away by saying Boeing had a timing issue booking orders.
I would think that with the strong dollar...the other guys planes just got a lot cheaper....
GLOBAL COLLAPSE TIMELINE FOR 2015/2016
That is some sweet doom porn nice website!
Thank God for Liesman. The only question he doesn't have an answer for is why he is Fat, Bald and Stupid.
Only 1 of 57 economists expected a negative print!
Huh.....do most of them live in the mythical location known as the Eastern Seaboard?
More specifically Ivy League Schools?
Wait until we get the results of the NE blizzard lockdown (that was over hyped and not nearly as bad as they predicted). Everything closed. Travel bans. And everyone obeys like good citizens.
This is the first time since at least 2006, that 'Core Durable Goods' has declined for 4 consecutive months:
http://www.forexfactory.com/#graph=57770
Ironically, durable goods order collapse means the people don't feel the necessity to accumulate reserves, which is symptomatic for survival in uncertain times. They thus may indeed perceive 'shadow of the crisis passed'.
Buying a WASHING MACHINE IS NOT accu,ulating reverves. Idjit.
You're right, I have mistaken durable good for durable food.
Did you mean 'idiot'?
I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down.
Cause I'm already standing... on the ground.
Awesome.
"I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down.
Cause I'm already standing... with a frown."
Fixed.
No.
I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down
Cause I'm projectile vomiting all over town.
Now it is fixed.
Nope.
I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down
Cause I'm wearin my Yellen Gown.
About those rate hikes............ ;->
Yeah, I know. I think I'm gonna be on the losing end of that bet.
Useful. Keeps sheeple buying stocks instead of bonds.
Baby, baby, I get down on my knees for you
If you would only QE me like you used to do
We had a QE, a QE, a QE you don't find every day
So don't, don't, don't let it slip away
Bring back that QEasy feeling, oh that QEasy feeling
Bring back that QEasy feeling, my bonus is gone, gone, gone
And I can't go on, no oh oh
obama is like a very smart king... i hang on his every word!
Phoney market.....phoney rate hikes.
I think we just reconnected with the rest of the world
He built that !
Durable? Hookers and blow....
I guess the latter counts as durable if you buy enough to last for three years.
“Why do people say 'grow some balls'? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding” -Betty White
Not Betty White. That was Sheng Wang.
"Thank God. Can we niw turn the printer back on? Please?" - Yellen yellin at her fellow Fed stooges.
i think this is the year they bring back "transitory". this weakness is transitory and there will not be any expections of printing money. fwiw, i'm willing to bet the ECB does NOT launch QE on March 15.
Well it was good they held off reporting the REAL 2014 numbers until this year. Would not want to ruin Xmas, elections, end of year bonus etc. etc.
Held off until after the President's it's all good speech.
I find it vaguely unsettling that the ZH community generally derides the issued numbers when they are good but unquestioningly accepts the issued numbers when they are bad. I, like many here, believe the situation is worse than we're told by the official numbers, but I still wish the numbers were examined more critically regardless of direction. For all we know, the real numbers may be far worse than they're telling us, hoping we let our biases blind us.
Umm, wrong. These bad numbers that you say we accept are still lies but they are the highest low the government is willing to publish. Most ZHers subtract at least another 1% from any government issued number. Durable orders are most likely down at least 5% in the reality.
Papa needs a new Gulfstream.
Quick. Hire a data Czar! The real numbers are crushing our 'seasonally-adjusted' fudges.
"Shadow has passed", seems to remind me of someone telling us a few years back "Mission accomplished"
"Shadow has passed", but crisis come....
Orders are given - PRINT you scummy worms PRINT!!!!
The only thing "durable" is this omni-depression...
Who da fuck is goosing oil
Now we will find that the family that has the 28 year old kid living in the basement...the parents just lost their job too...
Whoops!
Mr Yellin turn those machines back on! Turn those machines back on!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKYM62qSA_0
Who was the one economist? I would like to subscribe to their newsletter.
He'll be suicided before the next estimate.
probably Argentine suicide
Steve said, "but shipping is up like 1%."
Why would you compare this MoM and not not YoY
Well when goods are durable you do not have to buy them as often...Right?
SHADOW of a doubt.
Steve LIESman - "This just doesn't make sense, the fundamentals are strong"
I missed the conversation but did hear Santelli say something about a 6 year cure for a 2 year flu or something like that.
Steve LIESman - "This just doesn't make sense, the fundamentals are strong"
Not sure the pot market in Colorado counts.
Dude, a large part of the nation is not working and many that are dont make jack and most of the new immigrants will work for non reportable cash and live off the govt. while sending the money back to Tijuana.
What the hell is wrong with that guy? He's always saying shit like that...is he an idiot or something?
He always seems so befuddled by the reality when he discusses the numbers. Just like his on-air buddies do when consumer spending doesn't spike upwards when gas prices go down by 3 cents a gallon..."But what are they DOING with all that money?"...'All that money'...as if we're talking about thousands of dollars or something...Or as if consumers will be flocking to the malls to spend that 20 dollar "windfall".
But....... recovery??
How long does something have to in "recovery" before the diagnosis becomes "this is about as good as it can get".
5 fucking years they've been repeating this retarded mantra.
The truth will not be spoken until the black Jesus leaves office. Get with the program you rayciss bastard.
I bet this slows down all the stock buybacks.....and then watch the volume and the prices drop in the stock markets....watch out below...but I bet IPOs are the new game for fast money....
CNBC just put up a Breaking News- Futures Drop Sharply Spooked by Earnings and Data.
Spooked??? You should buy, buy, buy regardless of the data or earnings. The FED will make sure that school children need to spend a portion of their lunch money on stocks before the farce comes to an end.
I am sorry I gave them any ratings today.
The Fed will print trillions more and throw it at the 1% to do whatever they want.
The Federal Reserve's print-a-thon becomes even more bold.
Higher doses for the credit junkie.
"Pack your shit folks" - The great George Carlin
Stocks will make news highs as long as Putin doesnt order more strikes in Ukraine
Are you serious?
Tick, tock...... Next round of QE a certainty.
The Federal Reserve is stuck doing infinte QE and negative interest rates until a currency crisis.
That blizzard to end all blizzards last nite had a retroactive impact on December numbers, clearly, which of course means good news for the future as there is pent up demand for SPAM and Tater Tots.
My Goldman guy said "there is still time to get in, Kermey" - I think that's encouraging.
The Sun is behind the crisis.
zerohedge @zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago
Spin from Goldman: 'Q4 GDP surprises to the downside; Upward revisions likely over time "
I thought they always revise them lower!
How can anyone be surprised? Profit growth after taxes has been negative for three consecutive quarters?
Did they not think this would show up sooner or later on the bottom line of publically traded stocks?
Lie..., then reviewed, lie, then reviewed, lie, then reviewed... until the lies build up and become a big lie... and a great correction. Complex times will come when the big lie is impossible to hide...
Durable goods? Just look at the Baltic Dry Index, Collapsed and right back were it was in 2008. Nothing has changed with all of the FED and Central banks money printing, just propping up a Fraudulent market.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm