"Shadow Of The Crisis Has Not Passed": Durables Goods Orders Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

Following November's across the board ugliness in Durable Goods data, the hockey-stick extrapolators all positioned for the bounce back... Only 1 of 57 economists expected a negative print! But the actual data was a total disaster. Against expectations of a 0.3% rise (following last month's 0.7% drop), December printed down 3.4% and November was revised drasticaly lower to down 2.1%. This is the lowest durable goods ex-transports since March.

The breakdown:

  • Durables: -3.4%, Exp. +0.3%, Last revised from -0.7% to -2.1%
  • Durables ex transports: -0.8%, Exp. +0.6%, Last revised from -0.4% to -1.3%
  • Core Cap Goods Orders: -0.6, Exp. 0.9%, Last revised from 0.0% to -0.6%
  • Core Cap Goods Shipments: -0.2%, Exp. 1.0%, Last revised from 0.2% to -0.5%

And the ugliness in charts:


and Uglier.


And ugliest: on a Y/Y basis, November durable goods were revised to negative - usually a harbinger of a recession.

Charts: Bloomberg

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papaswamp's picture

Just what the Fed needed to put off rate hikes and bring round that QEasy feeling...

j.tennquist's picture

Yep.  It's just bad enough to be good.

insanelysane's picture

Liesman explained it all away by saying Boeing had a timing issue booking orders.

youngman's picture

I would think that with the strong dollar...the other guys planes just got a lot cheaper....

Pig Circus's picture

Thank God for Liesman. The only question he doesn't have an answer for is why he is Fat, Bald and Stupid.

GetZeeGold's picture



Only 1 of 57 economists expected a negative print!


Huh.....do most of them live in the mythical location known as the Eastern Seaboard?


More specifically Ivy League Schools?

Took Red Pill's picture

Wait until we get the results of the NE blizzard lockdown (that was over hyped and not nearly as bad as they predicted). Everything closed. Travel bans. And everyone obeys like good citizens. 

Pool Shark's picture



This is the first time since at least 2006, that 'Core Durable Goods' has declined for 4 consecutive months:


Anasteus's picture

Ironically, durable goods order collapse means the people don't feel the necessity to accumulate reserves, which is symptomatic for survival in uncertain times. They thus may indeed perceive 'shadow of the crisis passed'.

QQQBall's picture

Buying a WASHING MACHINE IS NOT accu,ulating reverves. Idjit.

Anasteus's picture

You're right, I have mistaken durable good for durable food.

Did you mean 'idiot'?

NoDebt's picture

I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down.

Cause I'm already standing... on the ground.


El Oregonian's picture

"I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down.

Cause I'm already standing... with a frown."



Tall Tom's picture



I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down


Cause I'm projectile vomiting all over town.


Now it is fixed.

RaymondKHessel's picture


I got a peaceful QEasy feeling, and I know you won't let me down


Cause I'm wearin my Yellen Gown.

Dr. Engali's picture

About those rate hikes............ ;->

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, I know.  I think I'm gonna be on the losing end of that bet.

RiverRoad's picture

Useful.  Keeps sheeple buying stocks instead of bonds.

Whoa Dammit's picture

Baby, baby, I get down on my knees for you
If you would only QE me like you used to do
We had a QE, a QE, a QE you don't find every day
So don't, don't, don't let it slip away

Bring back that QEasy feeling, oh that QEasy feeling
Bring back that QEasy feeling, my bonus is gone, gone, gone
And I can't go on, no oh oh

dimwitted economist's picture

obama is like a very smart king... i hang on his every word!

RiverRoad's picture

Phoney market.....phoney rate hikes.

youngman's picture

I think we just reconnected with the rest of the world

surf0766's picture

He built that !

B2u's picture

Durable?  Hookers and blow....

TradingFinn's picture

I guess the latter counts as durable if you buy enough to last for three years.

XqWretch's picture

“Why do people say 'grow some balls'? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding” -Betty White

Anglo Hondo's picture

Not Betty White.  That was Sheng Wang.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Thank God. Can we niw turn the printer back on? Please?" - Yellen yellin at her fellow Fed stooges.

101 years and counting's picture

i think this is the year they bring back "transitory".  this weakness is transitory and there will not be any expections of printing money.  fwiw, i'm willing to bet the ECB does NOT launch QE on March 15.

hotrod's picture

Well it was good they held off reporting the REAL 2014 numbers until this year.  Would not want to ruin Xmas, elections, end of year bonus etc. etc.

insanelysane's picture

Held off until after the President's it's all good speech.

GeezerGeek's picture

I find it vaguely unsettling that the ZH community generally derides the issued numbers when they are good but unquestioningly accepts the issued numbers when they are bad. I, like many here, believe the situation is worse than we're told by the official numbers, but I still wish the numbers were examined more critically regardless of direction. For all we know, the real numbers may be far worse than they're telling us, hoping we let our biases blind us.

insanelysane's picture

Umm, wrong.  These bad numbers that you say we accept are still lies but they are the highest low the government is willing to publish.  Most ZHers subtract at least another 1% from any government issued number.  Durable orders are most likely down at least 5% in the reality.

robertocarlos's picture

Papa needs a new Gulfstream.

gmak's picture

Quick. Hire a data Czar! The real numbers are crushing our 'seasonally-adjusted' fudges.

quasimodo's picture

"Shadow has passed", seems to remind me of someone telling us a few years back "Mission accomplished"


kowalli's picture

"Shadow has passed", but crisis come....

Crazy Canuck's picture

Orders are given - PRINT you scummy worms PRINT!!!!

El Oregonian's picture

The only thing "durable" is this omni-depression...

blown income's picture

Who da fuck is goosing oil

youngman's picture

Now we will find that the family that has the 28 year old kid living in the basement...the parents just lost their job too...

foodstampbarry's picture

Mr Yellin turn those machines back on! Turn those machines back on!!


Zgangsta's picture

Who was the one economist? I would like to subscribe to their newsletter.

insanelysane's picture

He'll be suicided before the next estimate.

breakyoself's picture

Steve said, "but shipping is up like 1%."