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Worry-Warts Agenda For The FOMC
"Can Fed policy ever be local again?" asks Bloomberg's Richard Breslow ahead of this week's meeting, as there are plenty of things to focus on if you want to be worried about the world...
Plenty of things to focus on if you want to be worried about the world:
- From Peru lowering f/casts,
- wishy-washy Mexico retail sales,
- to horrible BZ consumer confidence (worst in the history of the time series),
- weak China industrial profits,
- escalating Ukraine violence,
- Russia downgrade to junk,
- electricity cuts in South Africa causing mayhem,
- shelling in the Golan Heights;
- of course Greek bonds getting hammered,
- election outcome is viewed as credit negative both by S&P and Moody’s.
Going into FOMC and as markets wonder whether they will be more or less dovish, none of this is lost on them, would be very surprised if they went out on a limb and did anything other than stay the course with a dovish twist, they will be circumspect
Looking at U.S. bond market, it has been trading in a very small range and just a fraction higher, this seems to me to be not a good sign, would have expected it to have been a bit more bid with all the noise in other markets -- worth keeping an eye on if bonds cease to be the obvious safe haven trade. They have been droopy before, but just saying...
Draghi comments to EU finmins, noting that without immediate structural reform, QE will have no lasting effect, which is both true and unlikely to prompt action, would be a pleasant and unlikely surprise if finmins do take his warning to heart
At the same time, banks are called upon to raise more capital, this is of course part of a prudent policy, but also to deal with difficult times, no diminution of pressure to raise capital despite banks’ protests
Bizarre headline from Turkey’s Erdogan, who sees superior intelligence working against his country; no independence at the central bank -- with Gov. Basci signaling an emergency meeting next week (Feb. 4) to review rates should inflation fall 1ppt in Jan -- not a good way to attract capital to country
In any event, the noise factor is extraordinary, which is likely making people very wary of committing as much as they’d like to this early in the year
Source: Bloomberg Trader's Notes
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WORRY NOT <>All good news
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I'm pouring myself a double now after reading this one!!
Then again.. I was about to anyway..
Worry wart? How 'bout entire body Worry Lesion!!!
Stinky-Farts Agenda for the shit piling Federal Reserve Corporation
The Fed has no choice here but to stay the course and indicate a rise in rates,
although if and when they do, it will be nominal and merely lip-service inorder
to sustain their credibility. QE junkies, fear not, for when the economy sinks
to the point where no bogus government numbers or seasonal adjustments
can hide the truth, we will have QE on steroids
Oil and gas is higher today screwing the CONsumer, so all hope is not lost for Wall Street.
It’s not screwing the consumer, the consumer should realize that in this world, they can’t expect to earn top dollar and get everything at discount prices in return.
And when you get cheap crap for decades in a row, people should also realize that eventually there will come a day to pay up, and that it’s not because the producers are evil but because they want what is due to them.
Uhmmmm... It was a joke. Newsflash: Wall Street has been bitching about low oil for months now.
With the DOW heading down, would be a good time to raise those rates up to 4 or 5 percent. That would get things really cooking.
Not sure about that. Looks like they will push the indexes up the remainder of the the day, By tomorrow this dip will be a memory.
It's like snow storms or terrorists - worry and fear mongering - and "shelter in place!".
Don't mention that weather is normal and people in the U.S. are more likely to be killed by their own Police force.
Don't mention $500 Trillion in Bankster Derivative casino betting backstopped by the FED and Treasury - on the backs of the populace - so the banks can pay fat salaries and bonuses.
But the sheeple actually WANT fear mongering!
Because it's the only thing they want to understand so they don't have to think about anything and have something to blame for their futile lives.
Politicians and religious leaders know this all so well.
BTW, People will exert 10 times the effort out of fear than they will out of desire.
the CEO of CAT was on squawk box this morning. joe kernan asked him what advice he would have for the fed. i was shocked at his answer. oberhelman can at the very least keep his shit together. this morning, it collapsed like his stock. he was basically pleading into the camera for the fed NOT to raise rates; saying the economy is too fragile and commodities have come-in too hard, too-fast. here's a fuggin news flash: its NEVER going to be a "good" time to raise rates BECAUSE of these out of control debts & deficits that NEVER get dealt with. congress has done NOTHING because stock prices have been elevated the last 6+ years due to ZIRP. they've created this bubble & are going to contiue to blow-into it UNLESS someone bucks the fugg up and puts an end to this shiz.
this entire notion circles right back to wealth inequality - the ONLY way IMO to deal with the root of the problem is to cut the debt to zero, raise rates to 5%, and encourage people to save & invest instead of waiting outside on a line 5 nights for a new model iphone. the same policy thats artificially driven stock prices to the moon is the same policy thats responsible for the largest widening of spreads between the rich and poor. bringing the forces more inline with mother-nature are going to hurt and NOBODY wants to sell that pain because they know they'll be voted right back out ASAP once the byproduct of normalization (ie. a drastic reduction of equity prices) occurs.
can do this 1 of 2 ways: man-made pain or market-based pain. unfortunately, i believe we are headed the direction of market-based pain. no idea the exact "when" its going to happen, all i know is that it will happen and when it happens the markets-way, its going to be ALOT more painful.
'People would like to put a lot in, but they're wary rates may rise'....oh please.
Strange things happen in wartime.
WWIII is well under way if you hadn't noticed, just waiting on fighting season in the Urals.
@winstonchurchill
unfortunately, i would tend to agree with you based on 1 particular trend that seems to be as-tho someone seems to be front-running that theory:
Russia buys more gold ...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0V60WJ20150127
Russia raises gold holdings for 9th month in a row - IMF
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0V601B20150127
Here's the only question that currently matters: the S&P is less than 20 points away from going green after all the bad economic news today. Will they make it before the closing bell?
"Can Fed policy ever be local again?"
The problem is centralization.
The solution is decentralization.