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Early Warning Signs
If, as Kyle Bass so eloquently noted previously, "buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple," then recent (post-QE3) activity suggests the narrative is changing fast...
Perhaps Larry Summers was right last week in Davos, "we have to recognize that the era when central bank improvisation can be the world’s growth strategy is coming to an end."
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Duh...
The dystopia of fiat/fractional reserve currency regimes is obvious - only industrial scale obfusction and distraction will work and now even that is breaking down.
Got gold??
Yes, and more importantly. I am part of a large like-minded and well armed/trained community.
Let me clear with respect to the bankers and financiers who have grown 500-1000% richer as a result of 30+ years of fraud. Fuck em.
Get the fuck out of the market (assuming you haven't already) until the Fed announces QE4. That is all.
>>out of the money SPY long dated puts would be nice also
I know Soros likes those so I guess we should too.........still prefer the shiny yellow stuff though.
The problem with with money printing by central planning is that by definition it is cronyism.
If money printing worked, why not just let citizens print it as needed? The answers are threefold: contol, cronyism, and it does not work no matter who prints it.
Yes, but dollar cost average on this insurance policy. Buy physical monetary metals when they go on sale.
There's a fire sale coming soon, and this time I don't need any cover, be there or be square.
I'm expecting, and hoping, that we see such a fire sale. I'm also seeing base metals on sale recently, along with many of their delivery devices. You may want to stock up on those also.
If the S&P pukes up 40%, gold/silver/yachts....everything will be at fire sale prices.
Pick up gold at $800/oz, BAC at $4/share....etc.
It will be fun pushing the cart down the isle while you have dry powder and everyone else has ruptured their underwear
That's the game. Pull them in with cheap debt until the floor drops out. Who could see that loading up with all this debt was bad? I mean, everyone is doing it with rates so low, right?
improvisation, yeah, that maggot would try to make it sound benign
Summers is still pissy about being tossed out of the Fed Chair beauty contest, only to lose to Mr. Yellen. This sounds more like sour grapes than pearls of wisdom. Had he been chosen by the chosen he would be doing exactly what Yellen and the rest of the Fed acolytes are doing ... plowing their snouts deeper into the trough and enriching their piggy-acolyte owners.
I'm tasting vomit in the back of my mouth again, dammit.
H. L. Mencken
Truth is timeless.
100 bucks an my left nut bet Greenspan starting buying Gold with Euros in mid 2014.
I'd bet he's held gold since the 60s. He may be a scumbag, but he's obviously no fool.
Last year, Greenspan told GATA, 'Gold is currency, and it will go up considerably" .
Strange thing for a Fed man to say...unless he meant it.
What he said was, "Gold is currency; no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it." Please link if he said something about price, I'd really like to see that.
Wonderful, exciting, marvelous news and opinion...that we've been seeing here for the last 3 years.
this a$$ kissing of parasite kyle bass is really nauseating.
Seriously, I'm not sure I want a guy glorifying and fetishizing the US military and killing in general on my side. Plus, as much as he says the right things sometimes, he's generally been in denial about the US being the center of the rot.
Why would you cut off the hand that feeds you?!
Summers: "What I'm really trying to say is, we need to take 'white shoe' culture to the next level. We can't just keep printing money up. We have to actually steal assets and resources now."
I'm more into silver myself. Currently have 5 monster boxes sitting under some junk in my office. Gotta bury those in the yard at some point.
I have a nice shovel, whats your addy?
So is Gold really anchored until QEforever ??????? ... wasn't how I saw things 3years ago.....but sure seems like it today.
Things are not as they appear...
http://inflation.us/golds-real-purchasing-power-hits-record-high/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11358316/Central-bank-prophet-fears-QE-warfare-pushing-world-financial-system-out-of-control.html
Mr. William White said Quantitative Easing (QE) is a disguised form of competitive devaluation. "The Japanese are now doing it as well but nobody can complain because the US started it," he said.
"There is a significant risk that this is going to end badly because the Bank of Japan is funding 40pc of all government spending. This could end in high inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.
"The emerging markets got on the bandwagon by resisting upward pressure on their currencies and building up enormous foreign exchange reserves. The wrinkle this time is that corporations in these countries - especially in Asia and Latin America - have borrowed $6 trillion in US dollars, often through offshore centres. That is going to create a huge currency mismatch problem as US rates rise and the dollar goes back up."
Mr. White's warnings are ominous. He acquired great authority in his long years at the BIS arguing that global central banks were falling into a trap by holding real rates too low in the 1990s, effectively stealing growth from the future through "intertemporal" effects.
He argues that this created a treacherous dynamic. The authorities kept having to push rates lower with the trough of each cycle, building up ever greater imbalances, in an ineluctable descent to the "zero bound", where monetary levers stop working properly.
Under his guidance, the BIS annual reports over the three years before the Lehman crisis were a rising crescendo of alarm calls at a time when other global watchdogs were asleep. His legendary report in June 2008 openly discussed whether the world was on the cusp of events that might prove as dangerous and intractable as the Great Depression, as it indeed it was.
Mr White said central banks have been put in an invidious position, compelled to respond to a deep economic disorder that is beyond their power. The latest victim is the Swiss National Bank, which was effectively crushed last week by greater global forces as it tried to repel safe-haven flows into the franc. The SNB was damned whatever it tried to do. "The only choice they had was to take a blow to the left cheek, or to the right cheek," he said.
He deplores the rush to QE as an "unthinking fashion". Those who argue that the US and the UK are growing faster than Europe because they carried out QE early are confusing "correlation with causality". The Anglo-Saxon pioneers have yet to pay the price. "It ain't over until the fat lady sings. There are serious side-effects building up and we don't know what will happen when they try to reverse what they have done."
The painful irony is that central banks may have brought about exactly what they most feared by trying to keep growth buoyant at all costs, he argues, and not allowing productivity gains to drive down prices gently as occurred in episodes of the 19th century. "They have created so much debt that they may have turned a good deflation into a bad deflation after all."
The fact that so many more bourgeois authorities are beginning to give voice to the obvious dangers is kind of worrisome to us contrarians. Or, again, it may be another sign that big events are upon us.
"we have to recognize that the era when central bank improvisation can be the world’s growth strategy is coming to an end."
Should we put that Summers quote in the same category as the "million monkeys hammering away at the keyboard recreating Shakespeare" hypothetical situation?
Note the quiet emphasis on the word "strategy" rather than "success".
"we have to recognize that the era when central bank improvisation can be the world’s coming to an end."
Say what?
As a % how much do you guys/gals hold in PM's?
0%. That is because I have complete faith in our government and a healthy distrust of anyone who asks questions such as yours...
Fair enough, I realized it was a stupid question as soon as I posted and now can't delete.
And to be honest I don't really care any way because what difference does it make to me, it's going to make no difference to my future PM non purchases ALL HAIL CENTRAL BANKS and FIAT!
I understand. Besides, I read that gold is a bad investment and you can't eat it. I don't know where I read that tho...
good question...I did a calculatiom because I never thought about it.
89% farmland
4.5% equipment
4.0% house
1.5% actual bullion in possession
1% cash
I need to divert something to more pms...anyone want Mrs.Vigor?
..anyone want Mrs.Vigor?
pics please...
She' not bad looking...but she sure hates bullion...she likes new bathrooms.
Wow Mrs. gobsmack is just like that.
I was in the big city in November and picked up more silver bar...I accidently left the receipt in my pocket, and she left it on my computer.
She didn't talk, cook, or fool around for two weeks...well fool around for three weeks.
Mrs. Vigor's new bathroom is coming next week.
I've got one of those, too, i.e., a spouse who is negative on gold/silver stacking and long redecorating ideas. Unfortunately, there's not much trade-in value for the missus and the carrying cost is significant.....
Will you take trade? I've got some ARVN rifles. Never been fired and only dropped once.
+100
We just bought my great grandparents farm (or whats left of it 20 acres)
along with my gold and silver, its the hedge above all hedges
congrats!
How much of your confiscated gold can one of those MRAPs carry?
A PUT is a good way to PUT it. And the added benefit is that the "option" has no expiration other than what YOU decide. I love it.
and it can be given to whoemever you damn well please - without the gubment taking a cut
Quick joke kinda.
A guy walks into a bank and ask to withdrawal a large sum of currency. The female teller behind the counter looks excited and says, "wow, gonna buy something nice?"
The guy says yeah, MONEY! The female teller says, "I don't get it."
The guy says, "yeah, I know."
Ahh, that's no joke I have done that, made the mistake of trying to explain it to a bank manager, blank look, deer in headlights had nothing on that guy...
Back in my pirate days, i would rotate several hundred dollars a weekend for dime or quarter rolls at different banks looking for silver coins
id average about a coin or 2 each weekend
id replace the silver with regular coins
rinse / repeat
it was a free and easy way to get silver, and it taught my kids how to quickly spot them
anyway, the tellers at the banks never understood why i went through all the hassle. one bank actually refused to give me dime roles when they found out what i was doing, although i never understood why
its not my fault they dont yank them out of circulation
ive got pounds of the stuff and still add to the collection from time to time
It's funny how people in the banking industry have no idea between money and currency. Tells you a lot about the "education" in this country.
One more.
A man sees this gorgeous women working a counter at a local bank. When it's the man turn to be waited on he pulls out two gold eagles and asks the pretty lady, "if a man were to propose to you with these two coins instead of a ring what would you say?"
The teller says, "you expect me to marry a guy who gives me a couple of coins instead of a ring? I'd tell him to get lost."
The guy puts the eagles back in his pocket, smiles at the teller and says, "thank you for preventing me from making a big mistake."
A man walks into a bank and makes a deposit. The gorgeous woman working at the counter says, "And it's gone."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
The joke's been on us since 1913.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-needs-more-than-qe-by-martin-feldstein-2015-01
First, though, consider why QE’s ability to stimulate growth and employment in the US does not imply that it will succeed in the eurozone. QE’s effect on demand in the US reflected the financial-market conditions that prevailed when the Federal Reserve began its large-scale asset purchases in 2008. At that time, the interest rate on ten-year Treasury bonds was close to 4%. The Fed’s aggressive program of bond-buying and its commitment to keep short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period drove the long-term rate down to about 1.5%.
The sharp fall in long-term rates induced investors to buy equities, driving up share prices. Low mortgage interest rates also spurred a recovery in house prices. In 2013, the broad Standard and Poor’s index of equity prices rose by 30%. The combination of higher equity and house prices raised households’ net worth in 2013 by $10 trillion, equivalent to about 60% of that year’s GDP.
That, in turn, led to a rise in consumer spending, prompting businesses to increase production and hiring, which meant more incomes and therefore even more consumer spending. As a result, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth accelerated to 4% in the second half of 2013. After a weather-related pause in the first quarter of 2014, GDP continued to grow at an annual rate of more than 4%.
Thus, QE’s success in the US reflected the Fed’s ability to drive down long-term interest rates. In contrast, long-term interest rates in the eurozone are already extremely low, with ten-year bond rates at about 50 basis points in Germany and France and only 150 basis points in Italy and Spain.
So the key mechanism that worked in the US will not work in the eurozone. Driving down the euro’s dollar exchange rate from its $1.15 level (where it was before the adoption of QE) to parity or even lower will help, but it probably will not be enough.
Gold at risk of failing 200dma
"buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple,"
In the radio-active wasteland left after the US/Russia war over Ukraine, what are you going to do with gold?
You can burn paper money to keep warm.
Ulrike: It's Bill from Berkeley in '68. You lived on Napa St and I lived around the block and had a mad crush on you. I'm widowed now, and still wish I had kissed you goodbye. Better late than never.... Auf Wiedersehen