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Pending Home Sales See 2nd Biggest MoM Plunge Since May 2010
The 3.7% plunge MoM in December's pending home sales is the 2nd largest since May 2010, drastically missing expectations of a 0.5% rise in sales (buoyed by exuberance from homebuilders). All regions saw weakness but the Northeast was worst with a 7.5% MoM plunge (so weather will be blamed we are sure - though it appears analysts never thought of that). Inventories fell for the first time in 16 months but NAR's chief economist proclaims it is time for "current homeowners to realize their equity gains and trade-up." Yep - more leverage...
And here is what NAR's chief economist thinks will drive the future...
“Total inventory fell in December for the first time in 16 months, resulting in fewer choices for buyers and a modest uptick in price growth in markets throughout the country,” he said. “With interest rates at lows not seen since early 2013, the strength in existing-sales in upcoming months will largely depend on the willingness of current homeowners to realize their equity gains from the past couple years and trade up.”
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Of course, homebuilders don't care...
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"Trade Up"
Sheeeet negro... Embrace the chains of bondage and trade up!
One might ask the most logical question: At what equity ratio should a person base their "trade up" decision upon?
1% equity? 10% equity?
Enquiring minds want to know!
Embrace the chains of bondage and trade up!
Exactly. Trade up to more debt so you can have a bigger black hole to put your money into. What about trying to pay off what you have instead?
it's an investment. don't you know that prices only go up? wtf, get in now while you still can.
Yeah but include "Pending Tent and Camper Sales" and it looks great!
"Tents and Campers?!?"
One can do better than that:
http://tinyhousefor.us/tiny-house-spotlight/couple-transforms-school-bus...
"don't you know that prices only go up?"
Sadly the Fed forces that to be true for commodities and real assets over the long term.
Fed rigged bubble markets will pop then the Fed will pump them up again. Repeat until the country implodes.
Honey, we are saving 250 bucks a month on gas...how about we upgrade are McMansion?
"There's never been a better time to...."
Everything is leveraged to the tits and people are going to try and become rich first and foremost no matter what their equity.
Also bullish.
No worries...the immediate needle-"bottom" on the equity indexes proove that ""investors"" are confident in these """markets"""
sales in the NE were down in Dec because people didnt want to buy a house before the blizzard came at the end of January.
It is a zero sum game, but economists are fuckin knob jockeys so don't expect them to say anything but utter shit. The prices of all levels go up so the equity is not worth anything when trading up
Can we trade up to a job first???
Dear NAR retard, I know you make a percentage of every sale, and it is in your interest to have high sale prices so that you get a bigger cut, and can drive an expensive car and send you kids to private school and all that non-sense.
However, you may not know this, but if prices fell, you could actually make MORE sales, and get MORE money, and the country may actually be better off b/c of it. But, go ahead and keep spouting the same non-sense, the world will judge you accordingly.
...and so do the property tax collectors. More money for politicians so the can continue to buy votes, continue to remain in power, continue to unleash their legislative insanity, continue to get wealthy. Thank you media for perpetuating this BS!
NAR chief economist. that's funny.
overheard at the NAR HR department...
Q: Son, can you say "house prices will go up" or "home sales are going up"?
A: Yes (NAR chief economist candidate)
Q: Welcome on board, new NAR chief economist
I'm thinking the empty-nest Boomers are going to be trading down. Their parents meanwhile, are talking to Fonzi about a reverse-mortgage so they can afford a tastier brand of cat food along with the latest pills.
Trading down is definitely the trend for: 1) everyone over 60, and 2) anyone with any sense, since property taxes are going thru the roof in many places [except Cali for some inexplicable reason despite massive deficits] and 3) utilites [like cooling an dheating] are rising rapidly. It's not cheap in the south to cool off a 4,400 sf two-story box with shit-poor insulation the wya they threw these houses up so fast.
Add lawn maintenance, HOA, water, and on and on.....it's no wonder I'm seeing lots of relatively new house owners put their house up for slae. Once they snap out of their Gurber daze and realize it's not cheap to buy, own, maintain a box. Oh yeah, don't forget about furnishing that 4,400 sf space.
And yet .... I see they are pushing the low-down or zero-down mortgages again! WTF!!
November - February are always slow months in Real Estate.
January numbers are exploding, even in the heart of winter.
treat your home like an EQUITY TRADE. Have NO attachments to life and community, your home is now just an equity trade.....
is it just me, or does the head economist from NAR seem like a boob!
The loss of community cohesion known as 'roots' was one of the most disturbing things about the last housing bubble.
It's moar like "weeds" then "roots."
Not to worry ... subprime is back , now called ' nonprime '. FIXED !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/get-ready-for-the-return-of-risky-mortgage-bonds-credit-markets
Homebuilders UP 2-5% on gotta be Fed buying. Their thinking is worse than even Stephen Roach imagines
Pay $1 for a house.
Pay 1,000,000 for a house.
People don't grasp it. Coworker moving his family to another city for a lateral position is going to look at rentals and buying. This is within weeks time, purchase a house? The mantra of rent is throwing your money away is as deep as some people go. "well interest rates are low", one dimension to a major investment. Stocks are up, so I guess I should buy.
US housing is in a long-term secular decline. There will be some exceptions (all housing is local) but in general, housing will drop in price in the years ahead.
Yes. Supply and demand.
Demand will go down as incomes continue to go down.
There are few, if any, tricks left that the government can play to get money to borrowers who can't afford to pay back loans.
Prices will go up as the Fed pumps up inflation but lower wages will keep that in check.
An over supply problem will keep ramping up as hedge funds sell their under performing foreclosure purchases.
The list goes on...