Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To 15 Year Lows But Shale States Job Losses Explode

Tyler Durden's picture

After 4 weeks missing expectations (and 3 above the crucial 300k mark), initial jobless claims totally and iutterly collapsed last week. Printing 265k (beating the 300k expectation by the most in years), the 13.9% drop WoW was the biggest since September 2005!!! This is the lowest initial claims data since the financial crisis and in fact the lowest since April 2000. But it is the story from the Shale states that is most troubling as initial claims through the 2nd week of January (data is lagged by state) show a massive surge in initial claims as unambiguously good news is very much not for many thousands across these regions.


Yep looks totally normal...


Lowest initial claims since April 2000... and biggest drop since September 2005...


This is lowest non-seasonally-adjusted claims print for this time of year in at least a decade.

The 265k print perfectly adjusts the 4-week average that is so closely watched below the 300k mark (to 299k)... coincidence?


as Shale State Claims explode...


we can only say WTF!?


Charts: Bloomberg

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101 years and counting's picture

low oil prices must be keeping all the burger flippers employed.  people can now afford the dollar menu.  and the recovery continues.

Headbanger's picture

Fed jacks up rates in 3..... 2......

GetZeeGold's picture



Participation rates are what again?

TeamDepends's picture

Clear proof the shadow of crisis has passed.

GetZeeGold's picture



We don't bury the lead......we nuke it.

Headbanger's picture

But this low number of claims might indicate that we've reached "peak unemployment"

Such that there's nobody left to lay off now so corporate margins will stop gaining from work force reductions.

Not to say employment will pick up anytime in the next 50 years either..

rccalhoun's picture

employers since 2008/9 have scrutinized new hires.  many sign an agreement not to file for unemployment..using seasonality or part time as a cover.  or if you do file you will be semi-blacklisted in your next job search.  the burden is on the slave (employee) to prove he/she will never be a burden on the boss

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Such that there's nobody left to lay off now so corporate margins will stop gaining from work force reductions."

It's arguable that we may have hit that "peak unemployment" a couple of years ago, and we're simply seeing the 99 weekers fall off.  Would help explain the more recent focus on stock buybacks vs. labor force reductions as a means to jack up stock price. 

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

You hit the nail on the head, Headbanger.  "Data dependent" Fed keeps moving the goalposts on raising rates.  Makes for profitable muppet-slaughter vis a vie UST shorts. 

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) Headbanger Jan 29, 2015 9:30 AM

Never happen, never ever ever and even if I were wrong they will reverse the next day.

rejected's picture

They'll be raised from 0.25% to 0.35%

HOORAY! We be in the money!

zorba THE GREEK's picture

Why does anyone react to these BS numbers from the Ministry of Propaganda?

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) zorba THE GREEK Jan 29, 2015 9:30 AM

I am on the personal gold standard, I do not react to these CB and government fuckers.

El Vaquero's picture

1) Because the algos react to the numbers from the Bureau of Lies, Damned Lies and Labor Statistics.

2) Some of us like to figure out not just that we're being lied to, but specifically how we're being lied to.

Richardk888's picture

I have a good friend who is a Geo Engineer for Baker Hughes.  Baker was supposed to lay off 3,000 this past monday, but pushed layoffs until later this week.

Add another 3,000 to that unemployed list.

Looks like people are losing unemployment benefits at a faster pace then folks are applying?

asteroids's picture

Offer him a revolver and a single bullet.

dimwitted economist's picture

well, i guess we must be All Better again now. time to go get that shiny new car!

venturen's picture

In other news the BLS just annouced that they have the Candians doing the job counting...see article on Candian job counting redo

MonetaryApostate's picture

Check the political cycle, oil has historically dropped before big elections & shortly thereafter rises to new heights....


Value investing = BTFDs!

rejected's picture

$5 Big Mac meals available now! Americans,,, Best fed suidae's in the world.

drivenZ's picture

low oil prices are filtering into the rest of the economy.

tarsubil's picture

Haha, right. People can service their debts a little longer to push off the pop for a couple of months. Everyone except those involved with shale. Those guys are facing complete losses on huge investments and credits.

It's okay because the bankers will still collect the private gains while dishing the losses to the average joe. Things are really great. 

MonetaryApostate's picture

Keep in mind that, when someone loses their job, it usually effects more than one person, not to mention what it does to local economies, and there are quite a few "Financial Gurus" heavily invested in Oil Towns....  (Doh!)

Aknownymouse's picture

Hit is actually thgov having removed thousands from the long term unemployment linsurance last year. Also cause for the high employment numbers.

rubiconsolutions's picture

A filter is a membrane that prevents stuff from passing on. Bankers as an exampe are giant filters.

hotrod's picture

With all the store closings, Corp layoffs, Casino closings, Shale pink slips etc. etc it would seem claims would rise.  I wonder if they exclude something now.  Just seems odd.

Arnold's picture

Fear not, the adjustments will be adjusted.

Full employment for the November '16 elections.


GetZeeGold's picture



Funny thing about 29.5 hr/wk lose don't qualify for unemployment.

rejected's picture

Yea,,, could have went any way!

Double the jobs without the pesky unemployment. Gives new meaning to double your pleasure.

Peter Pan's picture

At this rate, the elections in 2016 will be cancelled due to full employment.

Omen IV's picture

Manipulations: Psychological manipulation is a type of social influence that aims to change the perception or behavior of others through underhanded, deceptive, or even abusive tactics.[1] By advancing the interests of the manipulator, often at another's expense, such methods could be considered exploitative, abusive, devious, and deceptive.

Social influence is not necessarily negative. For example, doctors can try to persuade patients to change unhealthy habits. Social influence is generally perceived to be harmless when it respects the right of the influenced to accept or reject and is not unduly coercive. Depending on the context and motivations, social influence may constitute underhanded manipulation.

Vuke's picture

Are you saying we're being manipulated?  Say it ain't so.

Arnold's picture

Hey, negative rates' shrink is running loose down here.

(Not a bad thing actually.)

hotrod's picture

If it is at a 15 year low it seems like interest rates should be much higher and wages rising as this previously signaled a very tight labor market.  Anyone seen any articles on JOB FAIRs recently.  Maybe they dont have them anymore because so many are employed.

Refuse-Resist's picture

Question to ponder:

If people like me are not counted as unemployed, does the money we make on the side count as taxable income>?


I think it doesn't.

madbraz's picture

you have to laugh at the arrogance of the manipulators in publishing whatever number they need.  they know no limits, they don't care, no one is there to stop it...


madbraz's picture

sory buddy, santa doesn't exist either

GubbermintWorker's picture

That would be the labor force participation rate. The amount of people who aren't working, have given up working, and thusly aren't counted in the unemployment rate. It's currently the lowest it has been in 38 years.

rejected's picture

Why do most that somehow agree with government stats, require proof the government is lying from those that question them,  but never require the same of their government?

Miles Plastic's picture

Creative destruction writ small.

rabbitusvomitus's picture

Bullshit!  Ummmmm errrr I mean Bullish... yeah nothing to see here. Move along. .

John Law Lives's picture

Significant spending cuts announced:


(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc will cut $15 billion of investment over the next three years as the crash in oil prices saw fourth-quarter profit miss forecasts.


(Bloomberg) -- The company (ConocoPhillips) will reduce expenditures by more than 30 percent to $11.5 billion this year on drilling projects from Colorado to Indonesia.

Whoa Dammit's picture

The best and most secure job in the US is being a breeding sow churning out litters to support the corporate EBT eaters (Walmart, etal.) and the privatized prison industry.

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) Whoa Dammit Jan 29, 2015 9:44 AM

Well someone has to eat Mooch's free school lunches because I hear they taste like shit.

Refuse-Resist's picture

I don't know about that.


You're partially correct. You fail to note government employees and the lack of layoffs we're seeing locally, at the state level, and at the federal level... which as far as I can tell is 0.