WTF Chart Of The Day: Baltic Dry Index Crashes To Lowest In 29 Years

Tyler Durden's picture


Quietly behind the scenes - and not at all reflective of a collapsing global economy (because that would break the narrative of over-supply and pent-up demand) - The Baltic Dry Index plunged over 5% today to 632... That is the lowest absolute level for the global shipping rates indicator since August 1986...




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Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:03 | 5722248 xtop23
xtop23's picture

ruh roh raggy.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:07 | 5722266 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

Nothing more than a little overcapacity from overbuilding of ships during that overzealous period when markets were overpriced.  Transitory. 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:10 | 5722280 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Not to worry, because with viedoklis_lv around (I mean freedom123), the Baltic Lie Index is surging to all time highs.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:16 | 5722323 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I dunno.   I sort of liked 1986.


Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:24 | 5722352 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Yep, must be overcapacity from the boom time we just had. I must have missed the boom time while I was looking for the recovery, but all I found was some rotten seedlings that never became green shoots.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:27 | 5722391 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

I'm sure once Recovery Summer 6.0 is launched later this year, all the bugs will have been worked out.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:36 | 5722422 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Don't say that, I've been in the market for a cast-off yacht for a long time. I can think of nothing better than a big freighter so I can have paintball wars while I cross the Pacific.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:57 | 5722486 Publicus
Publicus's picture

The era of abundance is upon us. The price of everything tends to 0 while the AI and robots does all work.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:57 | 5722489 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Convert to movable Oil Storage ships.  Be like Goldman Sacks.

Plan on 20% leakage, just to be prudent.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 20:51 | 5722912 max2205
max2205's picture

Are we going to watch this tick for tick now every day 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:30 | 5722579 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Actually, shipping rates are falling due to our phenomenal growth in manufacturing in America. We are virtually making everything here now so there is just no demand for shipping from China or anywhere else. We have even conquered our oil dependence through modern fracking technology and don't even need tankers from the ME anymore. And best of all, prices for everything are falling due to our incredible technologies and resultant efficiencies (or should I attribute that to The American Worker?), all of which is the result of the incredible leadership of Barackobamamama. FORWARD!!

We are WINNING!!!!

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:40 | 5722663 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You've been taking lessons from Million Dollar Bonus. Nice work.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:56 | 5722731 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

MDB's ace student apparently. 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 20:18 | 5722808 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Just skipped lunch is all...low brain sugar.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:25 | 5722357 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Obviously drugs from MENA aboard US military planes are not part of that index, which is kinda too bad.  Maybe Geithner will propose a change to how BDI is calculated to include narcotics?



Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:19 | 5722568 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

You have to admit, that is still a bunch of sex slaves heading to Tev Aviv, London, Paris and Brussels. A literal fuck ton.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:36 | 5722419 SpanishInquisition
SpanishInquisition's picture

So many good movies that year

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:15 | 5722315 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

that's because Drones are not part of the equation yet lol

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:24 | 5722364 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

nah, its bullish because all those overbuilt bulk carriers which used to ship TV's to Best Buy will now be converted to store crude oil. And those dry goods shippers who do not want to sell/lease their 2010 Daewoo superhull to store corrosive Saudi Sour will hire a Greek company to scrap the hull, leading to record EU employment gains, leading to proof that QE works and improving laborforce attachment.

Shit, this story arc almost writes itself. 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:41 | 5722436 nuubee
nuubee's picture

If they're going to start storing crude in tankers, then you want to go long on Zinc.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:18 | 5722344 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Global trade plunged after the 2008 financial crisis, leading to an excess in capacity in the container shipping business that left HSH and other maritime lenders, including NordLB and Commerzbank AG, saddled with billions of euros of bad debt. HSH, bailed out by its state owners Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein in 2009, holds 21 billion euros in ship loans, 9.2 billion euros of which are non-performing, according to company data.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:48 | 5722462 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Add that to the EUR2.2bn greek debt that needs to written off at Commerzbank and it could start raining men.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:22 | 5722584 Wait What
Wait What's picture

Wait, What?

Weather Girls Raining Men?


Gravediggaz Raining Men?

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 21:53 | 5723163 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture could start raining men.

True, but you misspelled RUINING.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 21:50 | 5723062 mt paul
mt paul's picture

when oil crashes so does the baltic dry


think the big players cause this 

so they can rent tankers cheap

to buy and store oil on...

 then sell back into the market

when prices take off again...


same thing happened in 2008 - 2009

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 20:42 | 5722878 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

We do not need industry or trade we just need the stock market and wall street , this is the new America , 98 million people do not have to work the Gov't hands out free shit to 47 million and we are still the most powerfull nation on plant earth , the rest of the world are our bitches , you don't like that then we will bomb you into the stone age . Obamer our great leader just has to find a way to get rid of another 100 million jobs to other countrys and then no one has to work . Get to work China you slackers we want new iPhones and fuck you middle east give us cheap oil or we will fuck you up again . Let's hear it for 5 trillion dollar black ops making America the paradise it has become . ps thankyou America's police force keep killing those pathetic one's that question America's athority.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:10 | 5722281 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Yep, this is always spun as "there are too many ships" instead of the truth that there is no demand.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:13 | 5722303 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

There is no demand for the too many ships.


Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:10 | 5722536 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Aye, matey...but surely there's a fine song we can sing!

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:37 | 5722655 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

Here is one. A fine song indeed.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:12 | 5722307 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

632? Is that After Ford?

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:39 | 5722435 BandGap
BandGap's picture

It's about frieght being moved, not the number of fucking ships.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:02 | 5722511 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

actually it is about the number of ships. The size and scale of ship building in the last 10-15 years is staggering. Not only were shippers building more ships they were building bigger ships. Fleets of the biggest that have ever been built.  And it takes years to build a vessel. After the crash, the only way for shippers to make money with low day rates was to have more ships. During the crash it became ALOT cheaper to build a new ship. So any shipper with money was ordering even more ships for delivery 2-3 years out. Basically shooting themselves in the foot and increasing the glut. The cycle is long in the industry. A ship can last 30 years. The only way to get through the glut is to scrap the excess supply of ships.  

That's a mini primer on the industry. The BDI is complex and swings wildly due to many factors. It is not the smoking gun on whats happening with the global economy. Anyone who says different is a fool. 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:22 | 5722541 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So it's meaningless, like the price of fuel, the price of lumber, the price of housing, the price of interest, all meaningless.


Reading the tea leaves, and then suddenly discover what they are telling us....we drank all the damned tea and there ain't no more!

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:52 | 5722708 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Exactly.  Only trust the employment #s coming out of the BLS.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:54 | 5722728 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

Yes and no. Depends on what's going on all of those industries. 

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 20:02 | 5722752 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

You just wait they will build a bigger canal even bigger than the Panama canal for all those ships and the new monster ships one day.........Oh.

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 20:26 | 5722832 new game
new game's picture

baltic, electricity and alcohol are sure indicators. dr copper, iron ore, oil, snap cards, disability claims can be added to the list. don't forget all those discouraged wiget assemblers. it all good. ajaw bone the market up and trickle down to the plebs losing ground. oh, almost forgot, but i got to get the tb fired up for idol, have a good one duuuuude...

or isit bro, with a fist jab, whatever ha...

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 21:35 | 5723073 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Yes, but who needs real stuff when we have these wonderful stocks and financials literally at the tips of your fingers ? You can now become rich from the comfort of your own screen and keyboard... Transportation is so... last millennium !

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:42 | 5722440 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

Hah hah
That will cut into Somali piracy!

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:11 | 5722287 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I agree... this problem should clear itself up in the next 20 years or so...

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:07 | 5722272 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

It's contained

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:11 | 5722284 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"It's contained."

We see what you did there.

Does this mean a housing shortage is imminent for this new America?

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:31 | 5722408 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Why is it that if something is sent by ship, it's called 'cargo' and if something is sent by car,

it's called a shipment?

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:02 | 5722510 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Its a relic from the past.  Maybe even a barbaric one.


Thu, 01/29/2015 - 19:09 | 5722532 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

I dunno. Why do you park in a driveway and drive on a parkway?

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 21:31 | 5723056 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

buy the fucking ship

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 21:48 | 5723077 mt paul
mt paul's picture

then fill it with cheap oil...

floating storage

until the oil price rises a few 100 %

Thu, 01/29/2015 - 18:05 | 5722253 mtndds
mtndds's picture

BULLISH!!  Yeller spoke today.

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