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Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back when the BRICs were the source of marginal global growth, the punditry couldn't stop praising them. However, in the past year, now that China's housing bubble has burst and its shadow banking system has imploded, those who remember what BRIC actually stood for are about as rare as those who recall what it means for the Fed to hike rates. Which is precisely why nobody in the mainstream financial media has commented on the absolutely abysmal economic update reported earlier today out Brazil.

We are happy to do so because today's data follows up quite well to our article from a month ago "Brazil's Economy Just Imploded" and as the earlier article on the crashing Brazilian Real hinted, things for the Brazilian economy how gone from imploding to, well, worse because not only did the twin fiscal and current account deficits rise even more, hitting a whopping 11% of GDP - the worst since August 1999, but its government debt soared to 63.4% in 2014, up from 56.7% a year ago, and the highest since at least 2006. In short - the entire economy is now on the verge of total collapse.

This is what happened in a few bullet points:

  • The fiscal picture has deteriorated very sharply since 2011 at both the flow (fiscal deficit) and stock (gross public debt) levels. The primary and overall nominal fiscal surpluses at year-end 2014 were at levels last seen in the late 1990s.
  • The steady decline of the public sector savings rate is leading to a wider current account deficit despite weaker growth and low investment. In fact, the twin fiscal and current account deficits are now tracking at a combined, very troublesome 10.9% of GDP, the worst picture in 15 years (since August 1999). Repairing the severely unbalanced macro picture would require a deep, structural and permanent fiscal and quasi-fiscal adjustment and a significantly weaker BRL.
  • The new economic team faces, among other things, the very significant challenge of repairing the severely deteriorated fiscal picture.
  • The steady erosion of the fiscal stance pushed net and gross public debt up. Furthermore, fiscal and quasi-fiscal activism undermined the effectiveness of monetary policy, contributed to keep inflation very high and drove the current account deficit to a very high level despite weak growth.

More details from Goldman:

The overall public sector fiscal deficit widened to a very high 6.7% of GDP (from 3.25% of GDP in 2013 and the highest fiscal deficit since August 1999) given the very high 6.1% of GDP net interest bill and steady erosion of the primary fiscal surplus. Given the BRL depreciation during the month, the interest on the stock of Dollar swaps issued by the central bank reached R$17.0bn (adding to the R$8.7bn accrued in November).

 

Gross general government debt rose to 63.4% of GDP in 2014, up from 56.7% of GDP in 2013 and 53.4% of GDP in 2010 (the highest level since at least 2006).

 

The consolidated public sector posted a very large and worse-than-expected R$12.9bn deficit in December, driven by the unexpectedly large R$11.3bn deficit recorded by the States and Municipalities. The state-owned enterprises also posted a large deficit in December: R$2.3bn surplus.

 

Overall, the consolidated public sector posted a 0.63% of GDP primary deficit in 2014, down from surpluses of 1.9% of GDP in 2013, and 2.4% of GDP in 2012. This is the worst fiscal outturn in 16 years (since November 1998) and very significantly below the 1.9% of GDP primary surplus promised by former Finance Minister Mantega. The erosion of the primary surplus in recent years was driven chiefly by the weak fiscal numbers of the Central Government, whose primary balance declined from 1.55% of GDP in 2013, to a deficit of 0.40% of GDP in 2014.

 

However, the primary surplus of subnational government (States and Municipalities) has also been eroding, a reflection of the authorizations given by the Treasury since 2011 for increased borrowing by the States. For instance, the States and Municipalities posted a 0.15% of GDP deficit in 2014, down from 0.80% of GDP surplus in 2011.

In charts:

And the key numbers:

  1. The Consolidated Public Sector (CPS) posted a significantly worse-than-expected R$12.9bn primary deficit in December, driven by local governments and state-owned enterprises. The Central Government posted a R$755mn surplus but the States and Municipalities recorded a very large R$11.3bn deficit and the state-owned companies an also large R$2.3bn deficit.
  2. Overall, the primary balance of the CPS worsened to a 0.63% of GDP deficit in 2014 from a 1.9% of GDP surplus in 2012 and 2.4% of GDP surplus in 2012.
  3. The overall fiscal deficit (primary surplus minus interest payments) deteriorated further: to a very high 6.7% of GDP given the large 6.1% of GDP net interest bill. This is the largest overall fiscal deficit since August 1999.
  4. Net public debt worsened to 36.7% of GDP in 2014, up from 33.6% in 2013. Gross general government debt rose to a high 63.4% of GDP in December, up from 56.7% of GDP in 2013.

Good luck Brazil.

 

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Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:01 | 5726136 ZomBiEHiGH
ZomBiEHiGH's picture

LET IT FALL, LET IT FAAAAALL, I CAN'T TAKE THIS SHIT ANYMOREEEEEEEE

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:10 | 5726195 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Collapse and replace for the BRICs

 

They've created their own fund, agreed trade in local currencies, created SWIFT replacement, bought a honk load of gold and oil in the last year. They'll default on their Western debt and move over to a new currency (Real 2.0) backed by the new Eastern money system.

 

Greece looks like it could join them which would be interesting.

 

Helps put the situations in Syria and Ukraine, both Russian backed countries, into context. This is big shit.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:13 | 5726215 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Maybe they need to impose a Haircut.  But already being Brazilians ...............

(Gonna catch hell for that one)

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:20 | 5726248 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Host a global sporting event (World Cup/Olympics) and watch your economy go to the shitter within 2 years. Old pattern.

Yet, countries go gaga when they "win" the right to do so.

What was a marginal country like Brazil doing spending billions upon billions on mostly sporting infrastructure?

Bread and circuses.

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:44 | 5726381 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

ORI, I don't know about Brazil, but I know they promised the PEOPLE of South Africa there would be SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, new wells, and roads built, in addition to the stadiums.

What was built... were stadiums and roads to the stadiums!

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:08 | 5726492 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

The stadium business model is no longer valid.

The debt business model is no longer valid.

Brazil needs a new business model.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:27 | 5727308 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Gives a whole new meaning to "Brics and Mortar" economy, as long as you get the right definition of mortar.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:17 | 5726788 Syrin
Syrin's picture

Sao Paolo has less than a month's supply of water.   I doubbt they're too worried about the economy there.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:47 | 5727197 weburke
weburke's picture

The weather gods are only following instructions. 

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 01:19 | 5728231 August
August's picture

You mean...  they lied?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:12 | 5726507 PTR
PTR's picture

Now you know why I'm glad Chicago didn't get the 2016 games.

 

Also, fuck Rahm.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:40 | 5726633 strannick
strannick's picture

This author could produce even more horrifying bullet points for the collapse of the US economy, but then of course he couldn't rely on Goldman for source material

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:30 | 5726851 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Best asses in the world! I don't give 2 Taco Bell shits about anything else.

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 00:42 | 5728173 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Rather myopic.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:05 | 5726476 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Yes, the BRICs have their own FIAT fund to help support their FIAT problems...then, they can follow our lead and create a FIAT QE to support their fund to further support their problems.    It's like a Perpetual Fiat Motion Economic Stimulus Non-Optical Illusion Wealth Generator. 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:32 | 5726595 Nomatrix
Nomatrix's picture

Well, it seems that no one wants to understand between a monetary system based on debt and another one based on debt, the differences are nonexistent.

One may ask, what the hell they "discuss" between them when both sit at the table of the BIS?
Would
talk about sovereign money debt free? Certainly not


http://www.bis.org/about/board.htm

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:24 | 5726552 PTR
PTR's picture

backed by the new Eastern money system.

 

...which according to the plans is the step before the global unified system.

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 02:19 | 5728294 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The problem is that they have command economies and we all know what happens with those, over and over and over.  Perhaps the BRICs can break the dollar but it will not last.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:44 | 5726383 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Stop paying your debt. Ask for restructuring or else... Problem solved !

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:50 | 5726411 noben
noben's picture

"How's that BRICS thing working out for you? Who's your daddy?" -TPTB

Divide & Conquer working pretty good for TPTB.

Now if only the Chinese had real balls, and would let the BRICS decouple from the USD "Now!". But, no, their tong pricks (have been persuaded by TPTB) to "keep making money", and the tong oligarchs run China. Likewise, the nouveau Boyars got suckered into the same con, driven by their lust for money.

They think they're so fucking clever, but they're not. They're being played like a Stratavarius by a culture even older and more devious than theirs. Between the Sayanim, the Tongs and Boyars, all acting (in effect) as the Fifth Column, the Neocon agenda marches on.

What's that about Pride and Fall and all that? And today's Special: "Chicken balls a la Kung Pao"

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:47 | 5726908 Lea
Lea's picture

noben

"They're being played like a Stratavarius by a culture even older and more devious than theirs."

Ahem... that would be Stradivarius.

Who's the "even older culture"? To beat the Chinese, whose culture began in the 21st century BC, you're going to have to go back at least to the Sumerians. Or maybe Mohenjo-daro.

So, all in all, please don't try to look smart.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:37 | 5727167 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Countries are not real. Your culture started the day you were born.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:00 | 5726138 madcows
madcows's picture

huh, all those plastic horse sized ass injections aren't propping up the economy?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:15 | 5726231 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I may have mentioned this before.. Collapse, collapse, collapse is not a reduction in standard of living, not being able to party at carnival or no icee's on the beach..  It is feral human beings in the streets killing, robbing, looting to simply find calories once started it does not stop as JIT breaks down.

I do not think that word means what you think it means...  Of course most of these articles are written by traders who have at least been to the Hamptons and having no butler to wipe your ass is a collapse...

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:46 | 5726913 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

Calm is right, I was in Buenos Aires  for several  months in 2002 just after the big collapse of the peso and the economy in Argentina,did not see any feral humans on the street rioting, killing etc.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:36 | 5727162 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

I was there too. There were lots of prostitutes, beggars, sadness in the air and individual stories of losing everything.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:40 | 5727182 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

That is sad and a breakdown in civility as the least among us are reduced to grinding poverty.  I just want to retain the integrity of these words, it will become important.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:46 | 5727202 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The real panic will start when/if plastic surgeons leave Brazil.  In the meantime,...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f9P1wnW_3cs

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:29 | 5726293 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

In other words, the US's creditors are going broke. This will not bode well for the debt of the US. By the time its over, the Fed will own double the treasurys  of what the rest of the world owns.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:34 | 5726325 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Ahh. One bank to rule them all. The FED can just print that up and buy them. Creditors? We don't need no stinkin creditors.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:37 | 5726345 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Using a fiat money standard yes this is true.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:03 | 5726149 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

On paper perhaps.  In reality, Brazil has a fair amount of resources and real wealth still in their possession.

Seem to me that this is simple more an issue of "prices" and "valuations".

LOL!! 

Push reset already.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:08 | 5726186 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

rate cuts...who give a fuck...

"The Central Bank of Russia bought a record amount of gold in the first 11 months of 2014 spending an estimated $6.1 billion. Increasing gold reserves attempts to reduce dependence on the dollar amid geopolitical tension, Mark O’Byrne of GoldCore, told RT.

Russia’s gold purchases accounted for a third of the world’s total of 461 tons, according to research by Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services). The amount of gold bought went up 123 percent from the previous year to 152 tons, worth $6.1 billion at current prices. It’s the most Russia has spent since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Given the tension between the US and Russia, it’s more likely Russia will sell dollar assets and buy gold, said O’Byrne.

“That will be done both to protect the ruble and potentially to position the ruble as a reserve currency in the long-term, but also as a signal to Washington,” he said, adding that it’s almost like a geopolitical move showing that Russia has a monetary and financial alternative and it can retaliate if economic sanctions were to deepen.

On Thursday EU foreign ministers decided to prolong sanctions against Russian officials and the militias in eastern Ukraine until September 2015, but decided against broadening the list of economic restrictions. A final decision is expected in February."

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:14 | 5726223 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Why are countries with the most natural resources also the poorest?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:37 | 5726339 JailBank
JailBank's picture

They don't have the printing presses that "advanced" economies have.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:41 | 5726357 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Zimbabwe had a printing press, so it can't be that.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:55 | 5726425 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, they were not printing petrodollars.

big differnce.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:49 | 5726936 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

actually I understand that both Iran and North Korea had a  first class printing press that was making millions of so called super dollars

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:40 | 5726355 flysofree
flysofree's picture

Exactly, there is a difference in making your county 'investable' for the banks and 1% and what is the real economy.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:21 | 5726816 Captain Willard
Captain Willard's picture

LoP:

Minimum wage in Rio is $325 (USD)/ month. My friend there tells me bus fare is $2 and she has to stand on the bus. I just don't see how that can add up to happiness for the average Jose'.

Perhaps it's just that simple.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:16 | 5727072 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

cost of living in Brazil figures from Numbeo.com a very good website with statistics from various countries around the world

Sao Paulo

http://tinyurl.com/lg7cxjv

average income $884/month

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:03 | 5726157 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What, not Brazilian babes? WTF Tyler? Throw us a bone here.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:06 | 5726168 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Only reason I came in this thread.  Total rip-off.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:08 | 5726180 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That should have read ' no hot Brazilian babes'. Stoopid stoopid Obamaphone.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:39 | 5727329 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Those "hot Brazilian babes" are just carnival cruise ships for pathogens. Note that you can hardly find AIDS statistics for Brazil (not to mention all the other goodies).

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:11 | 5726206 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

You guys disgust me. The brain is important, not the body. But perhaps that's why my wife often reminds me of Peggy Wanker when she talks to me. Married with children, one of your better export products. I loved that show. I know, I know, not really high brow, but it's my kind of sitcom.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:20 | 5726259 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You viewed that as a Sitcom?  Dude, that's what it's really like here.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:24 | 5726274 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Please don't tell me you're a shoe salesman.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:05 | 5726161 ZomBiEHiGH
ZomBiEHiGH's picture

If I had a gold brick for every time an article mentions "implode, plunge, collapse"... i'd still have MOAR than the Feds. WHEN IS THIS BITCH GONNA COME DOWN I CAN'T GO ANOTHER YEAR WITH THIS BULLSHIT.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:13 | 5726218 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

World collapse, but the US economy goes to the moon, along with the DOW. This is essentially what 99% of investors believe right now.

 

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:16 | 5726226 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

This is your year then.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:06 | 5726163 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Well I guess the value of my farm in Brazil is in the shitter right now, particularly if valued in CHF... Must be almost time to buy another, and double down on "I refuse to participate in Uncle Sam's BS!"

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:05 | 5726164 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

B and R are officially in total economic collapse.  I and C are (un) officially in total economic collapse.  It will become official in 1-3 months.  BDI hits new all time low today.  

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:13 | 5726214 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Ah....the BDI. Tho only indicator worth watching. 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:05 | 5726165 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Brazil actually had a short period of time when private industry and entrepreneurs were able to grow their economy.  But like most Latin America countries, it has fallen when the government interferes with business, raises taxes and hands out too much money.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 20:36 | 5727610 smacker
smacker's picture

Nowadays Brazil is a corporatist state. The big industrialists dictate that the economy will be protected from import competition by huge import taxes in return for back-door political funding.

The result is that prices of imported goods are thru the roof and therefore unaffordable. This allows domestic manufacturers to reduce investment in R&D and productivity and raise prices.

Result: big profits go to big money and limited choice of goods at sky-high prices for the population.

Economically, Brazil is a classic socialist corporatist racket, now run by Dilma Rousseff and her cronies in the PT.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:05 | 5726166 hotrod
hotrod's picture

Well at least the money masters waited until after the World Cup to screw this resource nation.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:41 | 5726356 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

They still gotta pay for the Olympics too.

What's the rule? Buy out of the money puts on a nation's currency the year after it hosts some Global Sports Graftapalooza? It's worked before.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:05 | 5726169 maskone909
maskone909's picture

if brazil is this bad, think of how bad the PIIGS are

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:06 | 5726170 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

No problemo. 

Brazil just reelected Dildo Rousseff, Obama's south american masculine counterpart.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:07 | 5726173 Madcow
Madcow's picture

I used to think that Japan would collapse first, then Europe, then China, and then South America. 

But now it looks like South America goes first, then Europe, then China, and then Japan. 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:07 | 5726184 I woke up
I woke up's picture

Send Krugman in once he's done talking to Abe

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:10 | 5726201 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Well, we know where the next crop of mail order brides is coming from. Does put them at stage Mad Max I or II?

 

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:12 | 5726212 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

what are the bonds doing though? 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:14 | 5726219 Spungo
Spungo's picture

So much doom. I think I just came.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:17 | 5726222 hotrod
hotrod's picture

Thank God for the Reserve currency and petro dollar,  We are immune to these unpleasant adjustments.  Fuch those BRIC nations.  Who's yo daddy?  That's right, say it again,  say it again,  o yeah Uncle Sam.  When you come beggin for more currency candy to help with your 2016 Olympics, Uncle Sam wants that American Flag front and center bitchez. Now sign right here for some more loans. Now Get Outta my face.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:38 | 5726348 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Thank you hotrod, we need someone like you to voluntary pay off debt per citizen/debt per taxpayer via derivatives contracts gone tits up. Let me make a phone call, you can speak with my contact who can arrange payment options to deduct from your banking account.

 

Bless you hotrod, you’re a financial bailout hero for the United States.  /LOL

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:19 | 5726242 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I've been to Brasil. Let it collapse. 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:20 | 5726252 samjam7
samjam7's picture

I think their expenditure went up a lot since it was election year. Same happened in Venezuela. This socialist governments always need to buy votes and that is costly. Somehow I have a hope though that Dilma is a bit less disilusional than Maduro to somehow control its budget. Anyway, the times where investors would just poure their money into EM to avoid bankrupt EU are definitely gone. It's time for some real bubble and more USD appreciation. :)

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:48 | 5726377 flysofree
flysofree's picture

It's not so simple. In counties like Venezuela and Brazil there is a tremendous need to do something for the bottom 80%.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:21 | 5726822 samjam7
samjam7's picture

Yeah, in election year, and the rest of time? Come on I know that too but we both know that gifts to the poor matter most in election years to the elites!

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:19 | 5726254 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Some of you dumbfucks have no idea what it takes to ship a container into Brazil. Under their common laws, Brazil wants to rebuild its country within. Don’t believe me, ship a container with an old drill you bought. Shipment from US gets rejected. You pay both ways depending on maritime contract and 3rd party freight forwarding insurance, or commerce payment stipulations.

 

This is not my mistake, but a friend of mine sharing info. True story, nearly two years ago.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:29 | 5726263 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Brazil economy been on the "verge" of collapse for 20, 30, 40 years now.

25 years ago I lived in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. I spent a year there trying to be another Gauguin, but found instead that I was a lesser artist: myself. At that time--1989/1990--few tourists traveled to Brazil. Rio was considered the most dangerous city in the world, with around 2,000-3,000 murders annually. If that weren't enough, inflation for 1989 was about 1,200% annually, as I recall. Each day you would see the value of the currency plummet in myriad ways. The daily newspapers (there were six) carried headline announcements, of course. Items in stores were often marked with three or four different prices and often whole shelves were emptied of a single item because smart shoppers knew the price would soon double.  

I would walk or bus wherever I went.   At the bus stop, I'd see money--coins & currency--scattered in the gutter. For the first couple of days, I'd pick up large and shiny coins and stare at their dates.  A former coin collector, I'd wonder why a coin minted only a year ago now lay in the gutter. Valueless, my Brazilian friends would tell me, like the government.  They had a few wonderful words--"safados"--scoundrels or "ladrones," which meant thieves, to classify their political leaders.


At the time I arrived, you received three Cruzados Novo for each American dollar. This new "novo" cruzado was stamped (see photo) with a triangle designating its new value--or devaluation--over the old 1,000 cruzado note and reminded me of the Doctor Seuss story of Sneetches, who had stars imprinted on their bellies so they too could attain a new value.  In 1989, the Brazilian government decided to drop three zeros and change the name of the currency henceforth to Cruzado Novo. Since then the currency has been changed yet again to the Real. 

 

The same sort of deficit spending America is doing in a big and scary way.  All that borrowed money by Brazil, and the massive debt incurred, landed squarely on the shoulders of the average citizen when payment came due.  To the average citizen, these were scary, stressful times. Paper money became a roller coaster ride; vendors, landlords and even prostitutes preferred US dollars. Wages were adjusted constantly to keep up with the inflation rate.  

Frequently, on my walks, I would see large paper bills, 50,000 or 100,000 "old" Cruzeiros, in the gutter, but after awhile I never picked up any more money. I found it wasn't even worth a fraction of a cent. Likewise, at the beach you could see shiny coins roiling in the surf but no Brazilian bothered to retrieve them.

"By the mid-1980s inflation was out of control," wrote the editor of BrazilBrazil.  "The good news was that the military were on their way out and democracy was on its way in. The bad news, however, was that the 'civilians' taking over were the old aristocracy from the north and northeast of Brazil (called 'coroneis', or coronels after the powerful, traditional landowners in the region). These presidents (Sarney and Mello) were so corrupt that they made the Generals look good."

 

Corruption and cronyism bankrupted that country.  The currency of Brazil was a sad joke. After all, the credibility of a country is what gives its currency good standing in the world. 

Does this sound like any other country you may know?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:56 | 5726431 Vylahkinnen
Vylahkinnen's picture

Can we make a movie out of your story? Listen, I'd definitely watch it. But then again I have a wicked and wild imagination and I am a bit unhinged. Somehow I must think of Robert de Niro in "Taxi Driver". You know. Sensitive guy, poor, wants to be an artist, finds out he is not an artist, keeps his head just above the water line, a decent fellow - and he lives in this gargantuan mad city - with murders, hookers, drugs, corrupt officials and rampaging inflation around him. Keeps you in suspense - will he make it? It's a nailbitter. You wish this guy to be alive - to be successfull - not to be dragged into the mud - not to be part of the ongoing criminal corruption.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1345&dat=19860228&id=OMcSAAAAIBAJ&...

To answer your question: Yes. Sweden.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:21 | 5726265 john milton
john milton's picture

what ever it takes.. they need to collapse the bricks.. but its boomeranging back.. new bill proposal.. ATT audit the tungsten..

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:50 | 5726408 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bricks is something that may fall and kill a mouth breather wasting space. BRICS is broken down as---- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Building Better Global Economic BRICs.

-- Jim ‘O Neil/Goldman Sachs Asset Management

 

John Milton, watch out for those bricks falling on your head.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:22 | 5726269 elegance
elegance's picture

Thats OK. Russia is going to bail Brazil out.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:29 | 5726280 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

Time for China and Russia to pick the low hanging fruit;
Fruit from the bankrupt Fed orchard.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:29 | 5726300 Snake
Snake's picture

more zerohedge yellow propaganda at work ...

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:41 | 5727177 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Thank goodness you have nothing else to offer in a ZH debate.

Snake,

Give us a breakdown on Brazilian Real vs. USD at 0 .37. Of course, Euro is 0.33. Lastly, tell us about the SDR zeroing in at 0.2755040000.

Awaiting to hear back on your yellow propaganda. Shall we wait until you graduate from a Common Core school of math?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:33 | 5726311 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

BTW, the Us dollar trades at 2.68 to the Brazil real. 

While there a year ago, it was @ 2.30- 2.40 . Big collapse. sorta like the Russian ruble.

 

Down And Out In Rio: What To Expect At The World Cup
Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:37 | 5726338 hotrod
hotrod's picture

Well forget about Rhianna in 2016 Olympic opening ceremony.  Maybe swing Slim Whitman

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:04 | 5726473 Seal
Seal's picture

Meg Whitman

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:50 | 5726407 autofixer
autofixer's picture

I love Brazil and have many, mostly poor friends there.  The economy could collapse and most of them would never even notice.  As for the rest of us...

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 14:50 | 5726410 falak pema
falak pema's picture

They have the Olympics in 2016.

That should do the trick.

After having been whacked by the Fifa kickbacks, the Petrobras crony fiasco-- huge stink sink hole---  the Olympics should really do the trick to make Sao Paolo look like Athens after its Olympics; now all rotting in red rust.

The currency wars have made BRICS the house of card tricks! 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:04 | 5726718 malek
malek's picture

I thought the next Olympic Games will be held at Fukushima?

Oh my bad, that's in 2020.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:02 | 5726457 Parafuso
Parafuso's picture

The US is becoming like Brasil much faster then Brasil is becoming like the US

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:03 | 5726461 directaction
directaction's picture

The drought they caused isn't helping matters either. But what do they expect? 

They cut down most of the Amazon rainforest and therefore it doesn't rain as much as it used to.  

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:07 | 5726477 l8apex
l8apex's picture

So when do the hookers in Rio have a sale?  I need to plan accordingly

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:10 | 5726497 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I am willing to bet that the Olympics will be a disaster if they take place in Brazil next year.
You didn't hear it from me but their sewage empties into the bay where the rowing events are supposed to take place.

Now I know this is better than going up shit creek WITHOUT a paddle but my inside info is that it's touch and go because too much remains unfinished.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:17 | 5726531 Spectre
Spectre's picture

BRIC's & PIIG's & USA whatever the fuck, If one goes, they all go to shit in the endgame.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:25 | 5726557 BovespaBroker
BovespaBroker's picture

Totally disagree,

We got the "Super Dilma" to save our economy.

I am excitated to see the apolicapse in brasil exchange.

 

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2015/01/1574182-perfil-oficial-no-f...

 

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:57 | 5726700 smacker
smacker's picture

"We got the "Super Dilma" to save our economy."

LOL. She certainly has a following in the NE to get her re-elected, not so much in the SE where the business is done.

And how's the  Petrobrás corruption investigation coming along?

Will it find its way to her office?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 15:48 | 5726666 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

So a country with debt of 65% of GDP is collapsed, what does a country with debt of over 100% of GDP, say the US get labelled with?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 16:00 | 5726711 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

They cut Grizzly and other dips with Brazillian tobacco. Why Brazil ? Cause they can spray more chemicals on it maybe ?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:09 | 5727025 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

 Venezualan BABES ARE HOTTIES!

Ukrainian BABES ARE HOTTIES!

Brazilian BABES ARE HOTTIES!

All these currency-war exploited countries.....

ZH is turning into a sex tour site...

More on topic,I couldn't agree more about the borrowing going on to finance the Olympics around the world.

A one-time injection of hope and national pride,and then a big hangover.

Why not use the Olympic facilities for guillotining bankers,and their families?

Meanwhile there is about a million Syrian refugees freezing on the Turkish border.But who cares...

The Arab states don't want them.Europe certainly doesn't want them.Australia? Nope,got lots,thanks mate..

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:21 | 5727101 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

It is of historical note that Brazil was up to her tits in debt in the '70's and '80's and was given

new loans to just keep making the minimum payment,and NOT DEFAULT.

WallStreets solution?  Chainsaw the rainforests to make flooring for the elite in the Hamptons.

Raise beef cattle on the land.Export hardwoods.Export beef.

NOW THEY HAVE A WATER PROBLEM?   Quelle Surprise as the frogs say.

 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:43 | 5727194 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Would you mind presenting links to support this claim?

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 00:22 | 5728129 Karaio
Karaio's picture

I pity your ignorance ...

I believe you are those who believe that Brazil's capital is Buenos Aires ...

hehe.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 17:30 | 5727141 joego1
joego1's picture

Went from brics to ics

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 23:11 | 5727949 Karaio
Karaio's picture

Brazil does not break.

Brazil does not break because the population is heterogeneous, has vast resources, are individualistic but unite in difficulties.

You can be black, white, mulatto or Indian, search on the accounts of World War II written by US military on how were the Brazilians in the Italian campaign.

Brazil has water (the current drought is expected thing as well as in California or excessive cold in the Northeast).

Brazil has minerals, creative industry (see what happened in the oil crash in 1973, as imports were banned until 1976, the program of alcohol fuel cane sugar etc.), has a people that has passed the devil in 16 years of military dictatorship, achacamento IMF and other things that only Russian and Chinese spent in poverty and distress.

After the military dictatorship José Sarney, an oligarch when President gave a "just" and did not pay international loans and no one went hungry.

Before him, a military president, General (of Prussian family) Ernesto Geisel when the US did not wished to sell supersonic fighters to Brazil, bought French Mirage when the US boycotted nuclear plants in Brazil he bought two of Germany.

We paid dearly for it but the technology and aggregates came.

Almost in ferramos like Iran because of our centrifuges and, yes, Brazil has Bomb, only ever tested.

Ended the military dictatorship, the Sarney and Fernando Henrique Cardoso came a neoliberal who sold many state-owned industries (some I agree, I want other to hang the guy for selling - such as Vale do Rio Doce).

Brazil is the country that type, close the borders and say to the rest of the world "fuck you", no one will starve.

If there is a revolution here and close the ports exporting ore and Western food breaks economy in two months.

Russia is another country that can do this.

China today can not, US might in the next generation (this is that there is too fat and stupid).

All Europe starving the rest of the world not to send them food, Japan is another surrounded shit saltwater radioactivity and where resources not enter the thing falls apart. The future of Japan is back to eating fish with rice until the world ends.

The Chinese themselves if the borders are closed, believe, will very hungry but they can not have forgotten how food plant.

India and African countries is viewed in relation to food (India is the problem of Monsanto).

This crazy world of dollar signs ($ .s) has forgotten how to produce food, forget the Rural Wisdom.

In the politically correct world industrialized you can not tell a child that milk comes from the udders of a cow that recently gave birth to a calf.

Namely:

- Tetas has sexual connotations;

- Cow reminds prostitution;

- Farrow implies explain how the calf was generated and this can only be explained by pedophiles teachers in institutions run by the government.

On second thought, maybe politically correct countries will need about three generations to return to normal human.

You may assume that interesting:

 

http://englishrussia.com/2015/01/27/not-your-regular-russian-kids-book/

 

http://englishrussia.com/2014/11/10/young-kids-are-in-the-army-now/

I do not know if you understand the text is translated to Google from Portuguese to English.

I swore to myself never to return here but since they are talking about my country ...

hehe.

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 00:15 | 5728119 Karaio
Karaio's picture

"We have to avoid currency war ', says Guido Mantega

By The Associated Press | 19/04/2013 23:31

in:

http://economia.ig.com.br/2013-04-19/temos-de-evitar-a-guerra-cambial-af...

Two years ago the Brazilian Minister of Finance has already warned that this shit would happen.

"Amid debates on monetary policy" unconventional "practiced by advanced economies, the finance minister, Guido Mantega, returned on Friday (19) to criticize the currency war." We have to avoid currency war, "he said, in an interview at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (IBRD) in Washington.

"Now, if in practice it happens or not, we have to check and be vigilant to prevent that from happening."

-See Also: Minister of Finance denies that Selic hike affects investments

Mantega said the excess liquidity in the global economy worries emerging countries. On the recent monetary stimulus from Japan, which increased the purchasing program of assets to 7 trillion yen, Mantega said that it must be admitted that kind of monetary expansion in an economy that is in deflation for 12 years.

"Since emerging countries like Brazil, and other commodity-exporting countries, can not make monetary expansion because inflation is higher. We have not deflation," he said. He warned that expected to be not only this (monetary stimulus) that Japan do.

On the world economy, the evaluation of IMF member countries, according to Mantega, is that the world economy showed an improvement against the IMF meeting in October, but there are still financial risks in the European Union.

According to him, Europe is holding the growth of the world economy and shows no signs of improvement in the short term. Already emerging countries such as China, India and Brazil, managed to make a soft landing of economic growth to a lower level than observed recently.

 

hehe.

 

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