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"It's Different This Time" GDP Hockey-Sticks Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Year after year, hope-strewn economists mark up GDP expectations for the year-ahead (in order to defend top-down their S&P 500 earnings forecasts and why investors should always BTFD)... and year after year, those GDP expectations are slashed drastically. Welcome to 2015...

 

Consensus GDP forecasts have had one path year after year - top left to bottom right...

 

It's different this time

 

h/t @M_McDonough

 

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Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:16 | 5727285 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Now that's some funny chart porn.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:32 | 5727314 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Where's the deer?

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:50 | 5727348 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Butchered and in the freezer nestled beside the economic recovery...

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:18 | 5727291 starman
starman's picture

Shack Shak will change all that! Obama and he's little monkey workers will transform murica foreveah!

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:24 | 5727292 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Check out all the brick & mortar retail stores (electronics, apparel, restaurants) shuttering dozens, hundreds and even all their stores.

It's incredible. Many, many clothing shops (especially for women & teens) are just throwing in the towel, and restaurant chains like Darden-controlled ones are treading precarious water.

A lot of retail bank locations are closing, too (who needs a bank when they have no savings to speak of and can't get/don't want a "loan" - antiquated concepts, both) both freestanding & inside of larger store (mainly grocery store) locations.

This is what happens when the middle class is destroyed and has been going deeper into debt for the last 8 years. No nation can stay out of recession, and ultimately a Depression, when they're borrowing everything AND the kitchen sink to exist.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:25 | 5727305 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Half of the new commercial space is empty in my area.

Don't see that changing soon.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:33 | 5727316 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

because no one shops at brick and mortar. Everything is online. Malls are obsolete. How can you can compete as a Brick and Mortar with all of the associated overhead costs?

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 07:51 | 5728440 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

The only thing that is brick and mortar and has a terrible website is the government.  They have a gigantic infrastructure footprint complete with vehicles and support staff. 

if government ran like a business it would folded already.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:37 | 5727326 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

most big box retailers fiscal Q4 ends january 31st (or there abouts) ... looking forward a few weeks when they report on holiday sales

take a drink for every "promotional pricing cut into ... "

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 21:06 | 5727684 Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

Corzine walks free while Fonz has been banished... TIS thanks for keeping it real.

Sat, 01/31/2015 - 00:18 | 5728004 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cheesepopes are a huge part of our dire problems.

Not all Cheesepopes are bad, but as a % of their respective population, they tend to be the trendiest, most focused on wealth-shifting vs wealth-creating enterprises, parasitic, who worship money/wealth as a god pieces of shit in the universe.

This has been a peristent pattern in many nations through many thousands of years, from ancient Egypt to post WWI Germany.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:35 | 5727320 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Just keep raising health care premiums, fuckin GDP winning!

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:48 | 5727344 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I never watch CNN OR OTHER MSM BULLSHIT but my esteemed brother told me that CNN had a Morgan Spurlock program called "Inside Man" on last night that showed him going to state of the art, immaculate, cutting edge hospital in Thailand with Harvard/Oxford trained physicians (Asians who were trained in western med schools & went back east) that would SHAME any western hospital, where he received what would cost something like $25,000 USD worth of medical care for $3,000 USD.

As a bonus, he had a 1,200 square foot new luxury hotel room right on the ocean/beach for $85 per night during the 3 days he was there.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:52 | 5727362 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That is a true story. I was there last fall (Pattaya) and my buddy had eye surgery for way less than half the cost. The hospital and his room were nicer than anything I've ever seen in the USA. Top notch facility with very good doctors.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:56 | 5727370 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

An even better deal, don't get the surgery.

According to the Harvard Nurses Study, doctors and nurses get surgery about half as often as the rest of the population.  Food for thought.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:12 | 5727405 knukles
knukles's picture

Shit, for the price of no surgery, you could rent a ladyboi for the whole fucking week!
Booyah!

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 20:15 | 5727564 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The stuff you know, knuks...

I hope that's not the voice of experience;)

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:01 | 5727380 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

It goes without saying, what we have today is straight up theft. 

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:19 | 5727430 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Thank the government and lawyers for 3/4, if not more, of the health care cost problem.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:22 | 5727435 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Bumrungrad International Hospital. I rate it higher than than the Mayo Clinic on a bang for Buck basis. Check The rates supplied and weep for what your paying in the Western World. I have "movie star" Teeth, all Straumann T&B for less than a good used car

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 23:42 | 5728019 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, that is the name of it.

I watched 10 minutes of the episode online.

It makes even the best hospital I've seen in the U.S. appear decidedly 2nd tier.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 23:46 | 5728020 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Healthcare in the U.S. is just another in a long line of rackets.

Obamacare is going to makes things much worse since insurance companies & Big Pharma essentially wrote the ACA (even doctors off camera concede this).

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:35 | 5727321 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

At least you usually get what you pay for from street whores - economists not so much

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:50 | 5727354 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

You don't pay street whores for sex.  You pay them to leave after sex.  If only the economists would go away.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:43 | 5727338 Silver Bullet
Silver Bullet's picture

Therefore, I expect Dow 20k by the end of next week.

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 18:43 | 5727340 Homey Da Clown
Homey Da Clown's picture

To quote Stevie Wonder "I just don't see it man"

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:12 | 5727414 knukles
knukles's picture

To quote Elivs:  (grunting, pushing, turning bright red, head throbbing) "All things must pass"

Fri, 01/30/2015 - 19:48 | 5727501 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

nice obamacare bounce in late 2014

 

good job barry - now go fuck yourself!!

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