This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Q4 Annualized GDP Misses, Tumbles To 2.6% From 5.0%; Surging Personal Consumption Pulled Forward From 2015
Following last quarter's upward revised 5.0% GDP, driven higher mostly as a result of even more mandatory Obamacare taxation, Q4 GDP had nowhere else to go but down, the only question was how much. Wall Street estimated 3.0%. Moments ago we got the first estimate for Q4 GDP and it was a miss, printing at 2.6%, and nearly 50% below the Q3 annualized number. This also means that the final 2014 GDP is 2.4%, higher than the 2.2% in 2013 as well as the 2.3% in 2012.
And while the overall report was disappointing, with GDP dragged down mostly by Imports which contributed to -1.39% of GDP, which in turn is driven by lower crude prices. Remember when plunging crude was unambiguously good? Well, not for GDP. And what's worse, the impact on Fixed Investment, which contributed 0.37% to GDP in Q4, down from 1.18% in Q2, is yet to be felt as energy company after company cuts its Capex spending.
- The good news: Personal Consumption spending contributed 2.87% of the GDP number or more than the total print, growing 4.3% Q/Q, above the 4.0% expected. This was the highest annualized quarterly consumption since Q1 2006.
- The bad news: much of the consumption that economists had expected would take place in Q1 was pulled forward, and a result Q1 GDP will now be revised even lower.
The full GDP breakdown:
»
- 10373 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
uh-oh...pass the revisions please!
yes, you may have seconds and thirds even - but save some for the others...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY
This song seems appropriate.
We don't need no water let the motherfucker burn....
Yellen just yesterday said she will not raise rates, but Dow and S&P futures are already back down 1% this morning.
Half a year ago this would have been a huge deal and lifted the "markets" for weeks!
Well the half life of Central Bankers promises is really getting very short.
Soon the "market" will need an announcement every hour...
Motto: "Increase frequency and up the dose!!"
GDP Means Nada
GDP is like a company turnover.
Any company can turn over lots of money and earn Nada
It's the proffit that counts and in Dot USA GOV terms that's the tax take
So lets see a graph of the Tax take for the last 10 years and compare it as a percentage of GDP
I think they meany "analized" ... not annualized.
Somewhere along the way you have to account for the increase in the Fed's balance sheet also.
I think the interest rate is a far better indicator than GDP. Nobody is ever going to goose the interest rate to make the economy look better.
for all practical purposes, a meaningless number; if you want to see a picture of the economy look at a chart of $WTIC
Spot on..no pun intended
q
Oh and I forgot
One of the ways .gov THINKS it can increase GDP
IMMIGRATION!
An increase of 50% in net migration of the foreign-born generates less than one tenth of a percentage-point variation in productivity growth (Boubtane and Dumont, 2013
http://www.oecd.org/migration/mig/OECD%20Migration%20Policy%20Debates%20...
AH OH
Got it wrong again! .GOV
2.4% extra from hookers and blow!
Turn those presses up to eleven grandmama Yeller.
Just make the recession worse if she does that.
"Debt repudiation" here we come....
I'll believe that when I see it. The world will be drug into war before we see that.
Isn't that the whole idea? Dragging the world into war just so the debt to foreign countries can be repudiated?
In the new normal there's only good news or better news. Definitely a buy signal here.
Once we dig in to the numbers, it will look even worse....
The fourth quarter still should have had the year over year boost from Obamacare...
the fourth quarter consumer spending was probably almost all foreign made stuff which if you analyzed - only 8-25% - was US domestic internet markup - so very little cash flow domestic retention
Yay! Lower GDP, even less chance of interest rate raises, stock markets up! Yay!
DavidC
(errm, sarc off...)
'Everything is smothered in awesome sauce, that being producers and savers getting kornholed from here on out. Free money! YAY!
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Thursday it plans to cut more than 350 jobs later this year
http://www.13wham.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/jp-morgan-chase-...
More bullshit from Emperor Goebbels's team over at the Bureau of Lies & Statistics [BLS]; truth be told there hasn't been any real economic growth since Chalky was immaculared in 2009. I guess government tax & transfer payments is "growth" now. If I click on the ad here at ZH for an Asian "girlfriend", and Google gets a penny for this click, that's considered "economic growth"? Double, no wait, triple WTF.
www.traderzoo.mobi
GDP is worthless and manipulated. They will never show it negative even as things continue to worsen. It's all about the public psychology and the inability to admit they've been wrong.
That's a real price collapse dude.
If GM is smart they'll ramp up production and make the next bankruptcy even bigger!
"...............and the inability to admit they've been wrong."
They are not WRONG! The Lyin Liar who Lies for Living is the core modus operandi and belief of the Poseur as POTUS
don't worry...be patient
Remember when GDP was supposed to be a measure of end-use goods and services.
Now they're counting health insurance premiums.
Which is an end-use service, because it's a monthly expiring put option. And every month you buy it, it expires worthless at the end of month.
I'm just waiting for the day they start counting SPY puts in the GDP number
"because it's a monthly expiring put option. And every month you buy it, it expires worthless at the end of month."
This is a noval, at least to me, and insightful observation. Well done.
Its time to BTFD while bad news is good guessing yellen comes out again today and explains this away
Our politician rats heard rates weren't going to rise 4eva, and they threw a party! Nothing 'our leaders' love hearing more than the working and saving class is getting buttfucked royally.
The number to send the markets higher will at 10am EST, its a ridiculous thing known as consumer sentiment. Keep in mind in a country of 320 million they will survey a whopping 500 people.
Good thing Granny Yellin used the BTFD card yesterday! Hey 'everything is awesome!'....target date- 2050.
People need to buy more iphones.
GDP numbers in the morning make me horny
Time for QE4 !!!
time for barry to make barry-care PHATTER to make gdp go up!!!!
barry - you are a douche bag communist - go fuck yourself!!!!
We all know that 5% number was manufactured by the Bureau of Lies and Shystering. Look for cratering of the US eCONomy by October.
The economy may crater, but the numbers will still show improvement,a nd the emporer will stand before us and declare how great everything is. Welcome to the Soviet Union when economic growth meant longer lines for toilet paper, gasoline, underwear, etc. I honestly think they measured economic growth by the length of lines of people waiting to buy basic consumer goods.
When does marijuana and Lucy's get factored in as part of GDP?
New GDP definition-
God
Damn
Pathetic
just how do you figure lower crude prices increased imports?