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Artist's Impression Of Saudi Oil Strategy
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A hard hat meets a fatal falling bar.
The Saudis Royal Family cannot lose the Oil Price wars, it's not like they share their revenue with the desert rats. (They aren't socialist, hello!) The US won't be able to fight the Oil Price war, the fracking industry is over, and the US could never be competitive in this market, because it remains the #1 consumer! That means buckle up Dorothy (US $), you're going bye bye.
...Iran, despite the ambiguity of its attitude toward Azerbaijan, similarly provides stabilizing support for the new political diversity of Central Asia. It dominates the eastern shoreline of the Persian Gulf, while its independence, irrespective of current Iranian hostility toward the United States, acts as a barrier to any long-term Russian threat to American interests in the Persian Gulf region...Iran's aspirations are vaguer still, but in the long run no less threatening to Russia's ambitions...Iran's role is likely to be even more problematic. A return to a pro-Western posture would certainly facilitate the stabilization and consolidation of the region, and it is therefore strategically desirable for America to encourage such a turn in Iran's conduct...In addition, it is not in America's interest to perpetuate American-Iranian hostility. Any eventual reconciliation should be based on the recognition of a mutual strategic interest in stabilizing what currently is a very volatile regional environment for Iran. Admittedly, any such reconciliation must be pursued by both sides and is not a favor granted by one to the other. A strong, even religiously motivated but not fanatically anti-Western Iran is in the U.S. interest, and ultimately even the Iranian political elite may recognize that reality...
For my students — to help them shape tomorrow's world (and the Obama administration is faithfully following that script despite strong opposition coming from the Arab countries and Israel)
The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperative
Zbigniew Brzezinski
The Islamic Republic of Iran committed an egregious strategic blunder by trying to renegotiate its nuclear program with the west. As a result of this shift in foreign policy, Israel and the Arabs (specifically Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Qatar) have envisioned a military alliance focused on destroying Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure (and place this country in a constant state of internal chaos). The upcoming war against Iran will be short and extremely intense for the type of non-conventional ordnance to be used by the IDF and the Arab militaries (mainly DU ammo), nevertheless it will not degenerate into a regional conflict.
Too bad that ordinary Iranians are not prepared for these events since their own government hasn't taken the precaution of training the civilian population for massive air raids and the needed evacuation from areas highly contaminated by radioactive materials.
The Russian Federation (and not the United States) has already given the green light to this military alliance to act in the event current negotiations pertaining to Irans' nuclear program are adverse to Moscow's agenda.
DU is not radioactive. Toxic in the extreme, but not radioactive.
Check yourself.
Whenever someone says "check it yourself" I do exactly that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depleted_uranium
(Natural uranium is about 0.72% U-235—the fissile isotope, and the DU used by the U.S. Department of Defense contain less than 0.3% U-235).
ahem...
less than 0.3% is not zero.
and, since U235 decays via alpha emission.... (that's radioactive decay, BTW)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_decay
Being relatively heavy and positively charged, alpha particles tend to have a very short mean free path, and quickly lose kinetic energy within a short distance of their source. This results in several MeV being deposited in a relatively small volume of material. This increases the chance of cellular damage in cases of internal contamination.
Don't know if you've ever been in that part of the world, but the sand there is very abrasive and it gets into everything - food, water, your lungs. I don't know how much DU ordinace was used, but you can be sure a lot of it has been ground to fine powder by now. U235 has a very long half-life too, so that stuff's going to be there effectively forever.
But hey, freedom comes with a price, right?
When did Russia agree to this, and what were the terms of agreement?
not low enough...
our local electric coop
just dropped price 28%
We should not be pumping and exporting our own fucking oil anyway.....
Fracking is probably fucking up the water supply anyway.
Unpossible...!!
You Saudi?
If you're American, you don't. You import vast amounts of the stuff.
OK, I'll take your word for it, lol........
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2014/141022/includes/analysi...
Do you even read the stuff you link to?
"Typically, crude exports are sourced domestically and are sent only to Canada. However, since April, crude exports have included modest amounts of Canadian-produced barrels that were moved through the United States and re-exported to Switzerland, Spain, Italy, and Singapore (Figure 2)."
The reason for cross-border imports/exports is probably something to do with the locations of the oil production and appropriate refineries.
I read it. It said we export oil, dipshit.......
This does too....
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrexus1M.htm
America exports Canadian Oil. So the oil is counted for export twice, once as an export for Canada, then for America. If it is going to Switzerland, probably two more countries get to count it as an export, too. Why not export it back and forth across the border 10 times to make it look like an even bigger number?
It looks like some oil from Alaska is exported overseas, since it is probably far more cost effective to do that and import some oil from Mexico then to send the oil all the way around to Luisianna or Texas. A lot of things happen not due to ideology or just to screw you, but because it makes more sense.
US consumes about 20 mbbl/day. US produces about 9 mbbl/day (was about 5 before the fracking boom).
We are net importers.
The devil is in the details. On the US Energy Information Administration site (that your first link leads to), choose DATA on the menu bar, then click on US Crude Oil Supply & Disposition, and the figures for domestic production and imports and exports of crude oil are shown.
For annual figures, in 2013, US domestic production totalled 2,718,571,000 barrels. Imports totalled 2,821,480,000 barrels, while exports totalled 48,968,000 barrels.
The last monthly statistics given are for November, 2014: Domestic Production of crude oil was 270,611,000 barrels, imports totalled 218,222,000 barrels and exports totalled 15,053,000 barrels.
Thus average daily figures for November, 2014 are:
Domestic Production: 9.02 Million bbl per day
Imports: 7.27 Million bbl per day
Exports: 502,000 bbl per day
I agree, the free markets are oh so droll and mundane. Everyone knows that decisions are best made by central planners!
What amazes me most in this oil mess is that even with igher production, refinery capacity is still unchanged and there’s a massive shortage in refinery capacity.
So I’m thinking that it’s rather that is what’s pushing prices lower than the 1% oil production surplus.
I have no background in oil, but this is not good for the world.
How low will it go?
As low as our masters in Washington want it to go. We have protected our oil revenues by selling futures and buying puts.
We broke up the USSR with $10 oil in the 1980s. Now we will break Russia's economy which gets 50% of its export revenues from energy.
He (John Pilger) says oil prices were driven down by agreement between the US and Saudis, to wreck the Russian economy
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/12/22/john-pilger-says-west-lying-n...
Mr. Pilger has been doing good work for a long time.
And now a word from the internet's second most prolific (Alex jones #1) conspiracy theorist...Paul Craig Roberts. I love it how people will read the garbage that PCR posts on his site and take it for gospel truth. These articles are 100% opinion piece and the terminally gullible fall for it hook, line, and sinker because they WANT to believe that everything is a conspiracy!
OK, here is another source, How many would you like?
John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, allegedly struck a deal with King Abdullah in September under which the Saudis would sell crude at below the prevailing market price. That would help explain why the price has been falling at a time when, given the turmoil in Iraq and Syria caused by Islamic State, it would normally have been rising.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-oil-coup/5420293
Maduro blames plunging oil prices on U.S. 'war' vs Russia, Venezuelahttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/us-venezuela-oil-idUSKBN0K8020...
Did The Saudis And The US Collude In Dropping Oil Prices?Proponents of this theory point to a Sept. 11 meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi King Abdullah at his palace on the Red Sea. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, it was during that meeting that a deal was hammered out between Kerry and Abdullah. In it, the Saudis would support Syrian airstrikes against Islamic State (ISIS), in exchange for Washington backing the Saudis in toppling Assad.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Did-The-Saudis-And-The-US-Collude-...
Thank you for proving my point. Look at your effing source:
"Maduro blames plunging oil prices on U.S. 'war' vs Russia, Venezuela"
And we all know, if MADURO says it's so, then by frackin golly, it must be true!
Give me an effing break...GULLIBLE!...Period.
So why not get your information from the oil industry investor...ya think that they might know a bit more about this? Here ya go...an "opinion piece" that refutes the conspiracy theory but by an oil industry PROFESSIONAL.
http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Been-There-See...
Read your link again......the guys says he THINKS that the Arabs are not out to hurt the Russians etc. He doesn't KNOW it for a FACT.
Precisely my point. "Hurting" the "enemy" is a fringe benefit from a crappy situation. The Saudis are now running a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR annual deficit. They would have to be INSANE to "manufacture" the oil price drops. All of the EIA data suggests the same thing! That the massive north american increase in output has caused the glut. Oilprice.com has not made any hard conclusions about economic slowdowns w/the exception of China and EU.
IMHO, the Saudis have much more on their minds than only the price of oil. The House of Saud just happened to be the desert tribe that the western powers decided to place in control of the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. The Sauds have many natural rivals to control of the area. The Saudis are involved in internal family competition for control, in efforts to control domestic unrest, and in the byzantine maze of Middle East politics. The Saudi position is complicated by rivalries among the various kingdoms, sectoral religious-inspired rivalries (Sunni vs Shia vs Alawite vs Druse vs Jewish vs Muslim Brotherhood vs Hesbollah vs ISIS vs Hamas vs Kurds vs various others), international oil and gas sales rivalries, and Big Power jockeying for influence among states and in the international energy markets. All the other states in the Middle East are similarly involved in these issues.
The Saudis see themselves as the big Sunni Muslim dog in the Middle East being challenged by Shiite Iran, and somewhat by Turkey, among others. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey are seeking to control Iraq and exert influence in Muslim religious affaris and in Middle Eastern politics. The Kurds are trying to create a Greater Kurdistan out of part of Iraq and eastern Turkey. Isreal is also trying to be the top dog in Middle Eastern affairs.
Much of the current turmoil in the Middle East results from attempts by the US to promote its influence in the ME and Europe, and attempts to create an energy coalition to bring natural gas to the EU via Syria and Turkey. The NABUCCO/TANAP Project was envisioned as a means to reduce Russia's dominance in EU gas imports. Nabucco/Tanap was to bring gas from Israel, Egypt, the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) and some Central Asian states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) via Turkey to the EU. Iran was ruled out by US sanctions. Syria, an ally of Iran, (Shiite) refused to allow the necessary pipelines across its territory, having made a deal with Iran to carry Iranian gas through Syria to Turkey and the Mediterranean. Egypt's Mubarack, under Russian influence, refused to go along. Gaza stands in the way of Israel since Gaza has claims to the seabed under which much of the gas fields that Isreal wants to exploit lie. Russia supports Gaza. Hence, Under US and EU sponsorship, a grand alliance among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Israel and the Muslim Brotherhood was formed to overcome the resistance to the grand coalition plan by creating regime change in Egypt and Syria. The Muslim Brotherhood was successful in deposing Mubarack in Egypt and put in Mohamed Morsi, but he was too strong an Islamist for Egypt's military and secular groups to accept, so he was deposed and al Sisi was put in his place. Al Sisi is more pro-Russian and pro-Assad, and so is anti the coalition plans. In Syria, the USA was set to invade and depose Assad on the excuse that Assad had chemical weapons, but Russia intervened and brokered a deal for Assad to give up the chemical weapons under international supervision. Next, the USA let loose the "Free Syrian Army" but that was unsuccessful in trying to depose Assad, so the US and its allies in the ME created ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State and set it upon the problem. At the same time, Russia has been supporting Iran and Syria to frustrate the USA's ambitions of having controlling influence in the Middle East. That puts Russia and the Saudi rulers at odds.
The hopes for the Nabucco/Tanap project took a major hit when it became clear that there were insufficient volumes of natural gas available to make the project viable, and Azerbaijan announced that it would send its Caspian Sea gas via a rival project TAP via Turkey to Italy. Some promoters of Nabucco/Tanap continue to talk up its prospects, just as Bulgaria keeps insisting that South Stream will be built.
The uprising in Ukraine was fomented by the US to pay back Russia for refusing to let the US have its way in Syria, to draw Ukraine away from economic and political alliances with Russia, to install NATO missile bases in Ukraine, and to force Russia out of its Black Sea naval base in Crimea. The US is seeking to keep Russia occupied, weaken it economically and militarily, and drive a wedge between Russia and the EU so that the EU remains solidly in the pro-US economic and political camp. The aims of the US are the key geopolitical drivers in all of the Ukraine/Russia/Middle East issues.
Turkey has been seeking greater influence in the ME and in Europe for a long time. The leaders of Turkey see themselves as the natural successors to the Ottoman Empire, deserving of the position of top dog in the Sunni Muslim world. Turkey also wants to become a major energy conduit for delivery of oil and (especially) natural gas to the EU nations in Europe. Turkey also hates the House of Assad in Syria since Hafez al Assad gave a safe base for Kurdish separatists in the 1980s when the Kurds went on a separatist rebellion in eastern Turkey and cost Turkey much blood and treasure over the many years it took to put down the rebellion. Turkey has been a member of NATO since about 1952 but its efforts to join the EU over the last 20 years have been frustrated by the EU - always a fiance, never a bride.
The EU has been trying to strong-arm Russia over natural gas imports for several years, trying to force Russia to give more control and ownership of gas pipelines to the European Commission (EC), and to allow the EC to take over all gas price negotiations with Russia. Russia faced a bottleneck of its gas supplies since most of its gas ran through pipelines in Ukraine, and Ukraine was constantly siponing off gas and not paying for it, so Russia built the North Stream pipeline (NSP) to Germany and planned to build the South Stream line across the Black Sea to Bulgaria and on to Austria. But the EC is restricting the NSP to half its capacity and put regulatory restrictions in the way of South Stream after the various countries along the route had signed deals to allow its construction.
Then, on December 1st, 2014 President Putin of Russia announced a deal with Turkey to divert South Stream to Turkey and then onward to the Turkey/Greece border. The Russians have since told the EC that once the new Turk Stream line is built, Russia will shut off the lines through Ukraine. The EC is in denial, insisting that South Stream must be built and must comply with all EC rules, but Russia seems to have dealt itself a winning hand against the EC and EU in this particular match. Turkey is emboldened by the plan, since it gives Turkey geater influence over the EU by making Turkey a key conduit for more gas to the EU. The US and EU are in a panic over the Turk Stream and Turkey's apparent move away from the Western camp and into the Eurasian Economic bloc, with stronger ties to Russian influence.
In all this, there are many gounds upon which to found a move by the Saudis to sacrifice oil profits to weaken Russia - to lessen Russia's support for Iran and Syria and thus weaken resistance to Saudi wishes for greater influence in the Middle East, and to give the Saudis and their allies a greater share of the EU natural gas markets. The USA and House of Saud have a long strategic partnership, and the Saudis are key to the Petrodollar agreement whereby the OPEC countries agreed to sell oil only for US dollars.
Other possible reasons have been touted for the Saudi decision to maintain its oil export volumes in spite of the falling oil price. These include: oil and gas production in the US may be reduced in a year or so as shale producers go bankrupt; the Saudis may be disciplining OPEC members who have produced more than their quotas; Russia, the biggest single exporter of oil and gas, may be forced to come to an agreement with OPEC over market share; the USA may have promised continued military support for the House of Saud; and then there is a report out that says that the CIA tricked the Saudis into injecting excessive amounts of sea water into their old oil fields to stimulate production, and if production is not allowed to run at full capacity, ultimate recovery from those fields will be reduced as the sea water infiltrates the fields. Another possible motivation for the US to have persuaded the Saudis to push down the price of oil would be to give the EU more leverage against Russia over control of natural gas imports and pricing, and to force Russia to agree to US/EU/NATO demands that Russia yield more influence over Ukraine to the West.
Then again, the fall in the price of oil may have come about for the same reasons that the international prices of coal, copper, and iron ore have fallen - the reduction in demand caused by a slumping world economy - while the Saudis refused to reduce production in the face of increased US production. Or maybe a whole number of reasons resulted in the drop in oil prices and the Saudi decision to keep production up. About the only sure thing is that the players are not going to tell us all their true motivations.
well said
You may not have noticed it but oilprice.com are a mouthpiece for the "official party line".
Sorry to burst your bubble :-)
ROTFLMAO...MOST of what oilprice.com publishes includes:
1) Quarterly and other company reports
2) EIA, OPEC, etc. commentary
3) Links to 3rd party sources ESPECIALLY ZEROHEDGE.
Now look to the bar on your left for ZH reads. Are they listed there!
Fracking is bad so good keep on dropping the prices
If you are worried about "climate change" and earthquakes, you might want to look up not down. That big bright thing that you see in the sky during the day has a lot more to do with natural phenomena on earth than most of us realize.
They'd have to leave their moms basement to see it, though.
Not a problem. I can always Google it.
If Washington had Americans interests in mind they would pull US production off the global market and let its PRI e be determined by domestic demand and require domestic refiners to source from domestic supplies first before turning to foreign supplies.
MOAR central planning? Just think about wha you are suggesting...you are recommending that the Fox, currently guarding the Hen house, also stand guard over the rabbit pen.
While the Arabs are bad enough as they are, can anyone imagine what this world would be like if Abraham took the correct turn and ended up in Saudi Arabia instead of Palestine and the Jews today controlled those oil fields? LOL
It doesn't bear thinking about (!)
think naked...
I think the Jews would be fine custodians of the worlds largest reserves of oil wealth. How about this version though as it's a bit more recent:
Just think what would have happened if Mohammed would have decided to conquer southern Africa instead of all of North Africa and Asia minor, killing of and absorbing the Western culture there... Christendom and white European culture would still be the overwhelming civilization in those areas, and westerners would be in control of all that oil!
Funny what a difference a few years can make on perspective!
I think the Jews would be fine custodians of the worlds largest reserves of oil wealth.
Yes, you are right.....For a Jew. Why care about Humanity, but then The Jewish Religion doesn't consider non Jews Human....
Perhaps one day you should read the Torah, as I must have missed that part. I have Jewish friends...liberal NYC Jews at that, and they've always treated me far better than I ever treated them. Jews are some of the most hospitable and generous people I know.
If everybody read the Torah and applied it to their own lives, there would be a whole lot less hatred and disorder in this world.
http://www.shoah.org.uk/2012/08/19/saudi-royal-family-is-jewish-king-and...
Well, if your conspiracy theory is indeed true (we'll never know now will we!) then my point is proven. The Saudis are the cleanest shirt in the hamper.
Perhaps the cleanest throbe in the hamper...
Or not?
Hmmmmm......the world would be a far more peaceful place. The arabs would be dirt poor as usual and would be causing little trouble for the civilized world. Yeah, that was an unfortunate turn by Abraham for the world.
Zerohedge is playing bank lobby propaganda.
I am perplexed.
That is not true. Saudis are out to harm Iran and Russia, not shale oil.
Not so much Iran (she is Israel's bone) but surely there is an economic war going on against Russia
and oil is just one of the weapons being used right now. I am beiginning to wonder if it will not go
all the way down to $30. Shale will be a small price to pay if they succeed in destroying Russia.
Sigh. 90% of Saudi revenues are dependent on oil. To make the math easy, let's say the Saudis pump 3 billion barrels of oil per year, and they previously got $300 billion from said oil. The fall from $100 to $50 oil means the Saudis are down about $150 billion per year, so anyone thinking conspiracy is not thinking how big a hit the Saudis have already taken.
If they cut one million barrels of oil per day and oil goes back to $100 a barrel, they still lose 365 million barrels of oil x 100 or $36.5 billion in revenue. That is better than the $150 billion they are facing, but it is not sure thing.
However, if the Saudis cut oil production and the price of oil does not move, then the Saudis are looking at a loss of an additional $15 billion or a total of only $135 billion in revenues.
I can't stand this whole Saudi conspiracy talk. The Saudis are getting killed no matter how you look at it. The idea that they like falling oil prices because it kills shale oil is crazy.
The Saudis are said to be holding $700 billion in dollar reserves. The USD is up. They are hedged to an extent.