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The Tide Is Turning: Obama "Expresses Sympathy" For Greece; Lazard Says 50% Greek Haircut "Reasonable"
The newsflow over the past several days was progressing much as expected: any time Greece demanded a bailout renegotiation (or termination), and an end to the Troika, Germany just said "Nein", most recently on Saturday when Merkel told Hamburger Abendblatt's "that banks and creditors had already forgiven a considerable amount of Greece's debt and that she rejected any further concessions. "There has already been voluntary debt forgiveness by private creditors, banks have already slashed billions from Greece's debt," Merkel told the paper, adding: "I do not envisage fresh debt cancellation." She added that "Europe will continue to show its solidarity with Greece, as with other countries hard hit by the crisis, if these countries carry out reforms and cost-saving measures."
As a reminder, the contentious topic at the heart of the latest scandal rocking Europe is that the new Greek government has said it wants to negotiate to halve the country's debt, which still amounts to more than 315 billion euros despite a debt restructuring at the start of 2012 that cut the burden by some 100 billion euros.
Of course, Germany's position has been known for a long time because despite all the posturing, Germany's interest are quite aligned with those of the ECB: because while German politicians can posture all they want about the specter of hyperinflation due to money printing, they know full well that without the ECB backstop, not only is the Deutsche Mark coming back with a bang, but Deutsche Bank, perhaps the world's TBTF bank, would promptly topple over in the process crushing the Germany economy. Which is why when it comes to Greece, Merkel's interest are identically aligned with those of the ECB, which in turn are dictated by Goldman and the rest of the banking cartel as well as the BIS/MIT diaspora.
And then something unexpected happened: the socialists came to the rescue when they voiced their support to their ideological peers in Greece. First, it was France whose finance minister said that France is "more than prepared to support Greece." And now it is Obama's turn who as the WSJ reported, has "expressed sympathy for the new Greek government as it seeks to rollback its strict bailout regime, saying there are limits to how far its European creditors can press Athens to repay its debts while restructuring the economy."
More:
“You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression. At some point there has to be a growth strategy in order for them to pay off their debts to eliminate some of their deficits,” Mr. Obama said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria aired Sunday.
He said Athens needs to restructure its economy to boost its competitiveness, “but it’s very hard to initiate those changes if people’s standards of livings are dropping by 25%. Over time, eventually the political system, the society can’t sustain it.”
...
“More broadly, I’m concerned about growth in Europe, ” he added. He said fiscal prudence and structural changes are important in many eurozone countries, but “what we’ve learned in the U.S. experience...is that the best way to reduce deficits and to restore fiscal soundness is to grow. And when you have an economy that is in a free-fall there has to be a growth strategy and not simply the effort to squeeze more and more from a population that is hurting worse and worse.”
What he means, of course, is that it is easy to issue trillions in debt - as a reminder, under Obama total US debt has risen well over 70% in just 6 short years, rising above $18 trillion - when i) one is the reserve currency and ii) when central banks, first the Fed and then every other one, have sworn to monetize government debt across the globe, leading to 16% of global government debt trading with a negative yield. It will be the task of another president to put together the pieces of this unprecedented debt splurge when one day, inevitably, the USD no longer is the world reserve or, inevitably, when first then another, then all central banks lose credibility, and instead of bonds trading with negative yields, said yields hit positive infinity once the long deferred hyperinflation finally strikes.
Lessons in economics and finance aside, what the president who in early March 2009 was impressed by the low, low "profit and earning ratios" of the S&P just said, is that suddenly not only France, but the US itself is not only giving Europe, i.e., Germany, lessons on how to handle its "fiscal prudence", but to also concede to Greek demands, something which the new Greek parliament will promptly leverage on and use for further political gains.
And where it gets truly interesting is that as Bloomberg reported earlier, not only is France also on board with "alleviating" Greek debt - a word which is extremely flexible in a diplomatic context - as we noted earlier, but none other than Matthieu Pigasse, the head of Lazard’s Paris office who has advised Greece in the past and who was hired over the weekend to advise the Greek government on its next round of debt reductions, just admitted to Bloomberg TV something startling:
“There is a range of possible solutions: extending the maturities, lowering interests rates, and the much more radical solution, the haircut. If we could cut the debt by 50 percent” he said, “it would allow Greece to return to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio.”
And just like that the "bogey" for the Greek debt haircut has been set, and at this point it is only a matter of finding where the bid and ask of the two negotiating parties end up crossing several days, or hours before the clock strikes midnight on February 28.
The only question is what happens to the ECB holdings of Greek debt which will inevitably get impaired in even a modest debt restructuring. There is of course the private-sector route: give the ECB and/or Troika a part of the post-petition equity of Greece in exchange for their impaired debt. After all they already controll all of it everywhere but on paper. Why not just formalize it. And after all, if Greece is set on never exiting the Eurozone as even the current government has implied, it may as well sell some equity to the ECB or any other interested party and just make it official.
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They must have successfully offloaded the Greek debt to the publc (from the private banks). Time for haircuts.
"Fuck the EU" becomes Official. The Neo-Cons win again.
Surprise Surprise
Anything to keep the sham going...
AP Deadline Washington DC Sunday February 1 2015
Only moments after the New England Patriots upset the Seattle Seahawks, President Obama, in the company of an unidentifiable Wookie sporting a shaved back, announced that Secretary of State, John Kerry has decided to resign effective immediately form his position as Secretary of State in order to concentrate his personal efforts more intensely upon his ongoing Botox facial injections, and upon his recommendation, Mrs Vickie "Ickie" Nuland will be filling his goiter sack. Without taking any further questions, the president, giggling uncontrollably with bloodshot eyes, returned to shooting hoops with several personal buds from his childhood who had jointed him in the newly refurbished White House bowling alley to watch the 'Big Game"
You left out the part with a blunt
After some hoops they did a group bong bang and celebrated Greece with an ancient Greek tradition using olive oil
100% haircut is only fair. Drachma comes.
Greeks re-negotiate to negative interest rate loans with no maturity ------------
Greeks get cash, debt loads purged, banks write of nada but pay to do so.
Fuck everybody
Another EU circle-jerk to solve everything and go on vacation in August without being interrupted
As Jim Cramer would say, "Booyah Motherfuckers!"
LISTEN TO ME, THIS IS THE ANSWER!!!!l
NO FUCKING WONDER EVERYBODY OFFICIAL WANTS NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ALL PROBLEMS SOLVED
PEASANTRY PAYS FOR EVERYTHING THAT'S FOR FREE
GET IT?
PUTIN ATTACKS!
PUTIN ATTACKS!
So they choose the moral.hazard route.
E.g., give Greece what they want. This will kick the can until Spain or Italy have elections -- demanding the same deal. I am sure the German, Austrian,Finnish and Dutch tax payers will be thrilled.
Perhaps they are just group of morons who are over their head?
I'm not sure Dutch tax payers will be thrilled.
See my post above: the motives on Merkel/Germany are different to Finland and the Netherlands.
IMO there is a real possibility of a split between Finland/Netherlands and Germany: Finland/Netherlands just want European free trade - the Euro-laws, Euro-Parliament and the entire United States of Europe ambition is much more a German WW2 guilt trip.
Merkel would be entirely happy to dump the German share of any bailout onto her taxpayers (the dud debt has long since been moved from German banks to state obligations). And her taxpayers (ex AfD) might well agree.
But the Netherlands share as well?
Watson
I am glad to hear someone else speaking common sense.
Much of the pain about to be inflicted on the German taxpayer (of which I am on) is a mis-guided sense of WWII guilt.
The other EU-member states know they can hold this above our head, and normally -- at the end of the day -- Germany will pay up "for European Unity and to prevent another war." The slobbering love affair many here in this country have with this EU is disguisting to look at. To be fair -- I blame German media almost exclusivly. I wanted the Tagesthemen (think Larry King Live (think daily news by the state-sponsored cable channel ARD) and Günther Jauch (think Larry King Live) and there was a very subtle theme I pointed out to my GF last night; anyone that is anti-EU is bad, anyone that is pro-EU is good.
For example, on the Tagestehmen last night there was a 20 minute hit piece on the AfD where the state sponsored news program essentially made teh comparions between the AfD and National Socialism, they called them disorganized and incoherent. Then there was another hit piece of Syriza, and then a "gooey" piece on the EU and how the EU wants to help the Greeks out. For most of the population that doesn't read alt-media, and gets 100% of their news from unadulturated propaganda such as this -- I can udnerstand why they think that way.
There is another public TV station in Germany called N24, which runs almost non-stop Doku-dramas about the horrors of the WWII, and then the last 10 minutes gloss over how the EU prevents such a thing from happening again. Complete propaganda -- all of it.
But at the end of the day, you bring up an excellent point -- while the French/Greeks/Italians/Spanish etc., etc,. can bang on about WWII and get the Germans to open their wallets -- if such a tactic is tried with the Netherlands or Finland, I hope the EU would be met with a resounding "fuck you."
But yes, there will have to be a split between the Netherlands and Finland over such stuff as this, for the Dutch and Fins to break, and the Germans at this point & time -- having to (I assume) assume their parts of the contribution, make it perfectly clear that the EU is all about containing Germany, and not the other way around. At that point, I would expect the AfD to kill off the Union and FDP simultaneously. You'll still have the bleeding heart shitheads in the SPD & Bündnis 90/die Grünen that think Germany should pay for ever to everyone re; WWII -- but it would get politically interesting in Germany and quickly.
Either way, if the EU employe's Obama "write off 50% (or 212 billion EUR) of Greece's debt, first writing off such an amount will be very very very hard, both financially and politically -- the ensuing demands from Spain and Italy will be impossible politically and financially. E.g., it would be financially impossible to write off half of Italian or Spanish debt. It would however, be politically impossible in these nations to NOT have the debt written off as it was in Greece. However, simultaneously, it would be politically impossible in the Northern Nations to eat north of a Trillion EUR's in debt write offs -- and Greece is the catalyist. No matter what the EU/EMZ does now -- it cannot win, and is backed into a corner of mutual exclusivity.
All of this is continegent upon the secondary private junk bond market in the US not explodign in Q2, or things really heating up between the Ukies and Russians, or a bank somewhere not going *boom* in the middle of the night, or the Danish Central Bank burning the same hudge funds that lost millions due to the SNB's move last month -- 2015 is an imporant year for history. Watch Europe -- when it starts to implode, like last time -- it will take the entire world with it.
German media has been running patriotic amok since the war on Serbia (Result: Kosovo has now a huge US military base) which even the Green party wholeheartedly supported. I took some photos yesterday while strolling along in an airport bookshop from two German newspapers featuring hit pieces on Syriza. The first was from "Zeit" ("To be against, that is important"), the second from our transatlantic Stürmer "Spiegel", denouncing the new democratically elected prime minister of Greece, Tsipras, as "wrong-way driver".
I don't think "patriotic" is the word you are looking for.
There must be 50 ways for a Greek Icelander to leave it's oppressor.
Don't be coy Roy......just get it done.
In the West, those who call themselves Patriots are those who help preparing and waging war against people who have no issue with us. Spiegel and Zeit are war mongers. In this sense, "patriotic" is the word I was looking for.
Yes, only because you have no idea what patriotic means.
I never met a true patriot who called himself a patriot. From the self-ascribed partiots I came to know, all of them were opportunistic assholes and/or immature wannabe-jihadists (like you).
The Greek bid seems to be for a 50% write-down.
So, to me, the fair solution is for German taxpayers (don't know if German law supports this) to have a referendum on the issue.
If a majority want to pay, fine.
If they don't, Greece goes bust and maybe Germany thinks about re-introducing the DEM.
At least everything is out in the open...for Germans as well as Greeks.
Watson
This is an excellent idea.
The problem is it would require media and political honesty.
Then at the end of the day, due to a faux-WWII guilt, the campaign would be
200 billion EUR is a small price to pay for European Solidarity, and we should pay it gladly, and most of the population would vote to pay it. But this is how referrendums work, and I'd much rather have a ref on the issue than not one at all.
There is also the open question of whether or not writing off ECB held loans from sovereigns, such as Greece consists of a breach of Article 123 TFEU. You'd have thousands of lawsuits getting filled all over the place if that was to happen, as the TFEU strictly forbids it, even in more directly language than it forbids QE. Would be interesting to the BVerfG wiggle out of that one.
I'm not a German citizen, but I wouldn't have thought the campaign you describe:
>>>
...200 bil EU is a small price...
<<<
is an obvious success.
1. Generally, not a good idea to ask people to pay more taxes;
2. It will be pointed out:
A. 200 Bil is just first estimate, when has first estimate been anything but under-estimate of final figure?
B. What if we pay but Netherlands etc. do not?
C. What about the next in the queue? and point out gatherings in Spain.
It could be a much closer race...and although AfD didn't get representation in Federal parliament, how is it doing at local level?
Just to start a campaign for a referendum (no more than 'encouraging democracy') could be interesting...what do you think?
Watson
The deal will be a 25% write-off and the IMF (read US taxpayer) will get some of it... watch and see. I have said before 80-120 billion to kick the can 18 months
I keep wondering how much longer before they kick the can over the edge of the cliff.
Haus, this is a very deep assessment. I could not agree more. Like in most other countries media is mostly used from politics as a propaganda tool. Especially in Germany any new political organisation, that impose a threat to status quo, got under heavy media fire.
Can kicking with regards to Greece and Spain (let's see how many votes Podemos is going to get in next election) ends in 2015.
“And get the Germans to open their wallets” ...
Germany is not alone to pay
Many European countries are also implied, on the basis of their respective proportionate shares in the ECB:
Germany representing 27.15%, France 20.39% (probably would have to pay 40-50 Md Euros), Italy 17.92% (30-40 Md Euros), Spain 11.90% etc ...
This was posted here a few days ago and really puts things in perspective.
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/eu/debt_greek/debt_greek.html
I'll assume that this 50% haircut proposal is strictly for foreign holders of Greek debt and not an across the board cut.
A lot of Greek banks in there along with $30 billion held by Greek Public Sector which is Papa Spiros' pension fund.
Greece would be destroyed.
Greece would be better off starting a war with Turkey, losing, and apply for a Euro Marshall plan.
Opa!
Ultimately the debt will overwhelm ALL countries with a few exceptions such as Russia, Singapore and the Sultanate of Brunei, e.g., which can bear interest rates above this now entirely surreal 0.0-0.5 % level. Therefore, this pig-like squealing of Merkel is pure posture.
At some point the debt must be cancelled. I reject any restructuring nonsense because that would mean that GS and affiliated Hedge funds get paid in full while most others will pay for the consequences of an obscene financial regime.
A cancellation of debt would be a probem for all savers who don't get out in time from bonds, saving accounts, private pension schemes or even shares when held at doomed-to-fail banks that rehypothicate its customers property (aka as being "corzined").
Greece can vastly increase its credibility NOW by starting to clean up its own house NOW (without having to travel to France and Italy) by punishing all those who enabled the scheme, participated in and profited from it - the scheme that now soffocates (not only) Greece (but the West in general). This would mean: Bankers, bureaucrats, oligarchs.
Ultimately the debt will vanish into thin air much like it was created out it without noticing. And it will takes years to grasp how that is ever possible.
To clean up the house, I think it needs to be torn down first.
Start with a new set up of the state departments and cut the laws by 50% (withdrawal of all the exemptions where minority groups benefit due to past briberies), would be a godd first start. But this is not going to happen, since the administration will work actively against any effective changes.
I thought the name in the headline was "Lizard".
Double post
Negative interest, positive inflation, one way of another policy will stick it to you.
Despite the debt writedown (which clearly could have been much larger than 50%, at the stroke of a pen, if anyone wanted to simply do that ... the debt-slavery knob is just being turned down a bit here), one way or another all these populations are going to suffer bitterly for their Govt debt splurges, and their personal and collected abject failure to demand responsible governments, and spending and national investment policies and strategies that produce surpluses, and not just more debt.
And pay horribly for their total failure to give a shit about the quality and underlying agendas of the people and the parties that end up in legislative chambers as the public's alleged policy representatives and public interest 'protectors'. (yeah ... riiiight)
These chambers are all full of corrupt ideologues and criminal puppets, so what can we ever expect but an accelerating total fleecing of the public?
People everywhere are simply giving up on the farce of democracy, as not enough people are interested in making it work for it to work, so it doesn't work.
And this is just the beginning of the necessary 'Sovereign' writedowns to come, from the other broke and whining debt junkies, to get any sort of sustainable growth levels back in any of these states, and interrupt and also reboot the trenchant depressionary stagnation that is spreading globally.
Either the banks are told to die and get lost, or Democracy, Peace and systemic integration is going to end in the Western world.
Go figure...
I make the same point here and get downvoted. It must be your eloquence that I lack.
We hire our Senators and Representatives to watch out for our interests in Washington and then promptly forget them, assuming that they will actually do what they promised us, while we pursue our own interests.
Like any business operation that relies on a positive income and looks forward into the future, this is how a successful Republic works, and you don't get that by hiring people for 2-4 years without any oversight or more importantly, accountability.
If we (past generations included) don't want to bother with the required efforts of responsible civic duties to hold elected representatives accountable for themselves and the Executive and Judicial branches they oversee, then we shouldn't be too surprised if they serve their own interests instead of ours.
Anyone who has been in business understands that you hire men, not angels, and if you don't have any interest or oversight of your operation, then you surely very soon will not have one.
At least not one with your name on the door.
Ben Franklin understood this right from the beginning when asked what type of government was decided by the Continental Congress.
"A Republic, if you can keep it".
There's no question to how that prediction turned out.
Some time ago a European country approached its creditors and said it needed a debt restructuring in order for its economy to recover. Sounds like Greece but in fact it was Germany who in 1953 approached France, the US and Britain about its $32 Billion debt. It was agreed to write off half the debt and spread the repayment of the remainder over 30 years…..making it very difficult for Germany to refuse Greece the same deal.
If Greece get a bail-out maybe they can start to make cars again, but German competition is top notch.
Greece possibly had a hot-rod design in circa 60 AD...maybe they can update it and go to market (/sarc)
The Aeolipile
http://jalopnik.com/5888188/the-greeks-had-the-technology-to-build-a-car...
You make a good point, but conditions are not quite the same, for example:
1. In 1953 there weren't a raft of other countries lining up behind Germany, trying to get the same deal;
2. The motives on Germany now (sorry to bring up the war) include Merkel/German guilt and angst for WW2, and a consequent desire to form the United States of Europe, the Euro-anthems and Euro-Parliament.
However, any debt write-off would also hit, say, the Netherlands, a solvent mercantile country that just wants European free trade, and would be entirely happy to ditch the expensive Brussels talking-shop. Is Germany going to pay for the Netherlands share of any bailout, as well as its own?
To be honest, I'm not sure there is a tidy solution to this problem...which is probably how it should be, after all, if we all lived within our means none of this nonsense would ever arise.
Watson
There is a solution but it requires some "out of the box" thinking. Here is an article that explains what I mean
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/bankrupt-germany.php
Greece has received billions every year while being part of the EU.
If Greece starts with WW2 money, Germany will start with counting every billion that build up Greece from the poorest european country to first world.
wow ... thats something, i did not know it was germany who did all of that ... come to think of it, in 1950 only 70 years ago, germany or whatever you call that country it was nothing but a giant large burnt field.
you and Haus above, need to watch more N24 tv to understand where you come from and who built whom ... comprendre??? you dig???
On top of that, in 1953 Germany had a successful business plan, so that creditors could expect to receive at least the other 50%. I don't see any plan existing for Greece.
a successful business plan ... are you guys for real?
i bet my plan would be succesful as well ... if someone is willing to give that much money that they gave to a burnt germany
>>>
if someone is willing to give that much money that they gave to a burnt germany
<<<
Once the money was received, there were various choices, including theft or just
gross misuse (the equivalent of burning bank notes for fuel).
I don't know what the Greeks would have done but, broadly,
the Germans took the money and rebuilt from the rubble.
They worked very hard.
Watson
In the excellent book "The Creature From Jekyll Island", G. Edward Griffin explains that this game has been played out for decades with sovereign debt. The IMF loan sharks run up the debts owed by third world countries and then give them haircuts when it is obvious they can never repay - anything to keep the interest payments flowing.
This also keeps countries in perpetual debt as after the haircuts happen, the IMF just starts running up the debt owed by the country again, starting the cycle over.
you are losing these guys getting them to deep, not sure they can handle that much info ...
just tell them to watch more N24 tv and they will be settle in their own little hole, no need to worry about them...
There was/is/will be no doubt the debt would have to be cut.
Luckylong, everyone reading must admit that the Germans took this "deal" and rose to the top. That "haircut" was a very solid investment.
Will Greece be able to do the same? That is the ultimate question. I say that unless things change dramatically in Greece, they will not. This ain't about politics or money.
As thridworld dude says below, this may be a geo-strategic play where $2-300 billion is worth paying. In which case, Greece gets bailed out and they go back to their old ways. For how long? Until a new technology negates the geo-strategic importance? Just because the US has the reserve currency it doesn't mean they should print till the end of time. We all know things like that end badly. Actions should be based on solid foundations and not on temporary windfalls.
Everybody had a fairly fresh memory of what happens when Germany has a surplus of outstanding bills.
Nobody is worried about Greece putting on the war bonnet unless it plans to lose and look for a Marshall Plan to rebuild.
...and Reggie.
Spain and Italy are FURIOUSLY scribbling notes and waiting their turn.
WTF bullshit posturing is afoot with Obozo? There is a heavy price exacted these days when getting favors from merika. Next thing you know, greek citizens will have to sign up as part of 100,000 troops to fight with the ukrainians against Russia or face 5 years in jail
0 just wants to prevent greece from pivoting to the BRICS / russia, he doesn't give a damn about greece.
but, his words are i expect, too little, too late.
Tsipras' leverage is predominantly geopolitical and Obozo's handlers are well aware of this, as could be seen from the teleprompter words. They couldn't care less for Mutti, Douche Bag or the EU taxpayers who are ultimately on the hook for the next skin-deep haircut. It doesn't (and won't) cost them a penny to print all the fiat that's needed to save the day.
Besides, it's only a false dichotomy, a game of good cop - bad cop, where Germany is supposed to be the hardliner (remember Schauble's nein on ECB's outright monetization?) pretending to protect its interests. The sad reality is that Germany is an occupied country that doesn't have much of a say on the issue.
I was expecting such a development of events. TPTB's shortsighted extend-and-pretend solution of allowing another debt restructuring will help the Greeks, but in the long run this is extremely bullish for Europe's deflationary spiral. Hedge accordingly!
Everytime I read that the deficit has gone up 70% under Obama (Not that President Puppet really had any power stop it), I'm troubled that it is so rarely contrasted with the 300% increase under Regan. I mean they've all been puppets since Kennedy, but why can't we focus on when the spending really went full retard and skewed the economy.
Here's the real piker who spiked the punch with Social Security: Federal Debt was 23 billion in 1932.
Franklin D. Roosevelt : Added $236 billion, a 1,048% increase over $23 billion, the debt at the end of Hoover's last budget, FY 1933.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/usdebtanddeficit/p/US-Debt-by-President.ht...
At the end of the Civil War, the Government shut down the spending, after World War II, they did not.
At the end of the Civil War, they didn't have a tribe of FED directors sending them fresh new 'balance transfer' credit cards with teaser rates.
Never Go Full Retard! Sean Penn went full retard in I am Sam look What Happened!
Only 6 down arrows????? I thought that would get more of a rise out of the GOP syschophants :-)
Still, 70% is less than 300%...
hes posturing so the IMF can take a big bite of the shit sandwhich.... That means US taxpayers.
"Kerry has decided to resign effective immediately form his position as Secretary of State in order to concentrate his personal efforts more intensely upon his ongoing Botox facial injections."
He's a finalist for the new Broncos logo. Needs to look young for the demo.
all he needs is a blanket, a rub down and and some barley
Holy crap....the Free SHit Army is uniting!!!
"If we could cut the debt by 50 percent” he said, “it would allow Greece to return to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio.”
Gosh, a bankster who has 3. grade math skills.
Will not happen. Greece is toast within 3 weeks if they do not cave in. Expect a new Greek general election in March.
on the flip side- the euro and the EU are also toast if greece doesnt cave in.
A Mexican standoff, Greece has far more leverage than it appears. The Obama automaton must have gotten word in his earpiece that Russia and China have made overtures to help Greece.
"If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."
VOLUME 11!!
ONE LOUDER!
ONE LOUDER!
What meds are you on dude?
Your responses are almost exclusively off in your own little world with rare flashes of lucidity...
@Wolfart the moron who doesnt know what he is talking about...
previously on another story post you said ... "Get some education. Todays Poland is the native land if the Goths. The Teutonic nights have never been in Ukraine, just like Prussians. And do have any news about German troups being deployed anywhere near or in Ukraine today? Get over your anti-German bias , you stupid moron."
to which I would like to point out...
https://books.google.com/books?id=W4PxUoyWyNkC&pg=PA12&lpg=PA12&dq=teuto...
1497 major Tetonic knights campaing in Western Ukraine vs Ottomans is defeated.
Listen wolfart, dont go lecturing people about history when YOU have NO GRASP OF IT !!!
Well well well.."the Teutonic Knights have never been in Ukraine"...says the great historian Wolfarts
I just love how little krauts like you like to rewrite history... just call yourself Wolf-FART because that is the only thing coming out of your mouth...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-01/ukraine-truce-tanks-are-rolling...
I hope nobody wastes anymore time with your lies or lack of intelligence
Bullshit doesn't survive for long in the ZH meat grinder! Thanks for calling him out, that's what I love about this place.
Being pro-russian and anti-german on Zerohedge is like crying how tough you are while your mouther holds your hand.
I think the real intellectuals on here are pro Russian and pro Germany/Northern European.
Move to Moscow, maybe the skinheads punching three colors of shit out of you on the metro will help you better attune to their scintillating erudition regarding your heritage and place in the world, and assist you better appreciate how little your sentiments and presence are desired. I hear they offer free tracheotomies for valued foreigners.
I think the real intellectuals are pro-anyone as long as they are positioned against USSA
The history of Eastern Europe is pretty interesting with it's alliances, betrayals, and the comings and goings of the myriads of different tribes.
I couldn't find the vid I saw with the scrolling dates but this will do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDxs8YSdBWE
The big surprise for me was the extent of little (present day) Lithuania and it's later alliance with Poland and how vast an area it covered.
I always enjoy reading about those rascal Cossacks. Just when you think they're on your side, they switch to the other side and they do it time and time again.
No wonder. Their traditional range-lands were Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia. They're at it again.
VOLUME 11!!
Talk about mudflaps ...
Cosmos, you know the difference between Ukraine and the Ottman empire? No? Simple, the Ottoman empire, the Turks, have nothing to do with Ukraine. What the Teutonic order did in 1497 was attacking the Turkish fortress of Akkerman on behalf of the Polish king, who was the overlord of the Teutonic knights at that time. This has nothing to do with Ukraine whatsoever. The Russians conquered that territory around 1790 from the Turks, it became something called "Ukraine" 300 years AFTER the Teutonic knights did a campaigne for the Poles in that area. Your senseless drivel without any education is hilarious.
What if the EU gets political agreement by its real powers (France, Germany) to offer all EU States a stark option - full EU fiscal union, or immediate ejection - your choice.
China is developing the huge port of Pineas to unload containers of shit for distribution in Europe. Russia might like a better warm water port then they have in Syria plus they will get their fingers into whatever pipeline comes off the Turkish extension. That being said do they want to get their hands into the unproductive Greek mentality? Not going to be easy to slip 10,000 Chinese longshoremen into Greece to get the bottleneck opened up.
....'Greece has far more leverage than it appears'......
Yeah...if 'crash and burn' is 'leverage' lol
That's nothing compared to the mad monkey's moronic finance skillz
“You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression. At some point there has to be a growth strategy in order for them to pay off their debts to eliminate some of their deficits... but it’s very hard to initiate those changes if people’s standards of livings are dropping by 25%. Over time, eventually the political system, the society can’t sustain it.”
should read
"In order for them to pay off their debts to eliminate some of their deficits- people’s standards of livings NEED TO DROP by 25%."
Not quite as catchy as his Profits-to-Earnings Ratio retard routine, but it shows he hasn't fixed either his ignorance or his arrogance.
Quick, print a couple of $1 quadrillion bills and give them to the Fed, that will fix everything!
spot on
The US-directives for the EU-vasall-states with Germany in the front line...
The US-directives for the EU-vasall-states with Germany in the front line...
There are no conservatives in Europe.
Progressives are in charge knuck-dude.
Grimaldus
Memo to Belgium, the US FED has some special purchases for you to make....
Us same procedures as before.
Default doesn't mean Default anymore, just wait until Treaty doesn't mean Treaty anymore
What do you mean wait? The US has broken or reneged on every treaty they have entered for the last 100 years...
To my fanboy that down-votes every single post that I make, I love you too sweetheart... Now bend over and take it like a man...
The Germans may complain publically but behind closed doors they know they are an exporting country which needs a weak Euro. Countries like Greece, Porgual, Spain and Italty with their massive debts and low exports helps keep the Euro weak. If Germany was back on the Deustche Mark it would probably be 50% to 100% stronger than the current Euro and would kill German exports. So as much as Germany whines, just remember it's a win-win situation. They need a weak Euro otherwise their exporting economy goes into the toilet. So it should be no surprise and when we find out the European Union will give Greece a sweetheart deal to stick around for a few more years.
Ugh I am so sick of reading this because it isn't true.
Two questions --
1) what happens to the price of commodities and energy with a strong dm/neuro. What is the largest cost component of mass-produced exported goods?
2) from 1948-1999 eg., life with the dm Germany average growth rate was 2,5% per annum. With the euro its just 0,8%. If the EUR is so great for competition why did growth slow after its introduction?
What's the largest cost of exported goods? Labour, you dolt. That's why the other stuff is called commodities. Germany gets to export their Mercedes at a 30% discount by being on the euro.
According to your logic Switzerland must export almost nothing and be on the brink of impoverishment.
Piliage is right on the money, this explains also the EU grab for Ukraine, cheap steel and coal, gold in the mts, maybe gas deposits inland, but certainly the black sea Crimea region has a bunch which they lost via miscalculation. Not to mention a source of cheap labor. Plus best of all VAST RICH farmland to keep food prices low in face of a weak Euro so the plebs dont revolt.
Aside from property plant and equipment, which is depreciated, and R&D which is mostly driven by human cost anyway, wages will be 25-40% of any company's operating overhead. Understand asshat? Or do you need that in a scratch and sniff book?
Do you think ABB makes turbines without labour? Do you think UBS bonuses are paid to Chinese slaves?
So how did Germany get on before the EUR?
Also, when R&D costs for a shiney new 3er are running in the hundreds of millions, but over the production run of the product they sell 700,000 cars with an average cost of 35,000€ a piece -- you are talking about billions of €€€€€. The 3er is just an example, and this only works for mass produced products where the R&D cost upfront is offset by the life and sheer sales volume of the product.
For small mom & pop manufacturing, which has high R&D and are alreadying running tiny profit margins, Germany leaving the EUR/the EUR failling to exist would not be good for European exports. However, I would venture to say that manufacturing that has sprung up since the EUR which is contingent upon faux-cheap currency are merely temporary things. They have based their business model on an artifically cheap currency, and like the PIIGS in the South who have based sovereign finance on easy financing needs via Germany's Centurion Card, will only exist until the EUR ediface fails.
I am not saying there will not be pain all the way around. What I am saying is commodities and energy will fall through the floor with a strong NEURO/DM and help offset the newly increased FX costs. Lastly tax steps could be implimented to help business offset these costs for 3-5 years, thus allowing them to reorganize their business models to accomidate a stronger currency.
From 1948-1999 Germany did it without issue, and grew at a fast rate than today. I seriously doubt it would take them long at all to do it again.
(This is what I do for a living -- produce "action plans" based off of financial black-swans, the impact on balance sheets, income, and how to go about dealing with a suddenly expensive currency. While I cannot tell you who I work for -- I work in one of the infamous "black rooms" set up back in summer of 2012. What started as a temporary thing became permanent as those in it realize the problems were not solved, but merely the cans were kicked. I am not speaking out of ignorance here -- trust me Germany would not only survive, but thrive with a stronger currency.)
So, you think Greece are doing Germany a favour by sucking billions from them?
Are you an economist by chance?
Pure stupidity... The Germans never needed a weak currency after the war. Germany has always had export surpluses. Like Switzerland... The Euro is a means to exploit the Germans. That's all. The Euro up to now made sure that the standard of living in Germany does not improve - with the Deutschmark it would have been about 30% higher...
Pure stupidity... The Germans never needed a weak currency after the war. Germany has always had export surpluses. Like Switzerland... The Euro is a means to exploit the Germans. That's all. The Euro up to now made sure that the standard of living in Germany does not improve - with the Deutschmark it would have been about 30% higher...
...and exports 30% lower...!
The consistent notion that a weak currency is beneficial to a net exporter is not a long term strategy. It only works if the exporting country is willing to consider stockpiling fiat as wealth. Sure, this can go on for decades but eventually there is a snap back to reality. (e.g. Japan) Where you then need to start spending your foreign fiat. This strategy also assumes the risk of holding foreign fiat for long periods of time is minimal. I believe this assumption will prove to be costly for foreign dollar stackers...time will tell.
Obama is just setting the stage for haircuts on the U.S. debt. There is 0 chance that either country can repay.
That Which Can't Be Paid Back, Won't Be Paid Back
WTF is Obama doing talking about this? It's none of his business.
I think he took the official IMF stance and invited fellow american taxpayers to take a haircut on the IMF loans?
Just sweet talkin the Greeks so they won't defect to Russia.
Difficult to offload the problem on a tax base with no jobs and shrugging on income taxes. I figure that Hitler, Jr. is in about the 10 th grade, seething to get at the helm to knock off the power structure. Then the suicides will start in earnest.
Criminals always play both sides of the fence. Or rich men always work both outcomes to protect their interests.
Most of the Greek debt is in the hands of ecb and other central banks, so it's aready on the shoulders of the public.
They have..back in 2012
The debt is owned by euro govts and a smaller portion by the IMF and an even smaller by the ECB.
Banks only own 5%...mostly Greek ones
.
.
Oops. I guess you're on your period.
Sorry to disappoint you, LTER, and your sexist friends...
I'm not a female, and I'm not having a period.
Your comment is NOT funny!
Shame on you! True to form... You've revealed yourself as...
Not only a worthless Lib...
But you're also a disgusting misogynist to boot!
Or, would you like to eat your stupid words yet again...
And have to aplogise again for your idiodic comments.
Otherwise, we must assume you like to make fun of women and their periods.
Do you have a wife or daughters?
Disgusting! Shame! Shame!
You and I may disagree...
But could you please leave women...
And their necessary bodily functions out of it!
Not being a female does not mean you are a male
Nor is he / she / it funny... If a person is going to be obtuse, they should at least be humorous...
don't let LTER bait you.
he is a master baiter, after all.
I'll lay off. I had no idea how thin skinned he is. Though I should have known.
Wow! You are are one of the more uptight ones here. You are so clenched up I'd bet you haven't had a good bowel movement in years. This constriction can lead to a condition where the fecal matter builds so high in the body that it affects the brain. It's called shit for brains syndrome. You might want to check into it, you're showing symptoms.
WWU, no need to freak out. You deleted your post with a period! It was funny.
And no need to defend us. By the age of 15, most girls are perfectly capable of answering the "you must be on your period" accusation. We may laugh, we may scream nasty words in your face, or we may just drop a tampon in your beverage. But in any case we don't need defending while on our menses. We got this one.
Honestly, it's appears to be much more difficult to be a man now-a-days. It seems practically impossible for a man to say ANYTHING and not offend someone. Anyway, try and lighten up a a tiny bit. :)
The Germans need to start shopping on the weekends, and stop renting their households. There's an old story by Martin Luther's biographer, that the young parish priest went to Rome for several months and was shocked at how the RCC and the pedophile Pope was spending his parish's hard earned money....not a lot has changed since then.
Bond bubble bust in 3....2.....
don't debt obligations mean anything anymore?
Only for us little people... Try not paying your taxes or electric bill or water bill or, or, or...
It's a matter of leverage.
How many times has Greece defaulted on it's debt throughout history? Hold on, gotta take my shoes off now.... damn, still can't get there.
Well, the US has done so twice. Perhaps "third time's the charm."
Well played. And I certainly hope you're right.
And yet....Mexico, Greece, Argentina and the US are favorite countries to loan money to.
The obligations went out the window when interest rates no longer reflect risk.
and when they started to print money out of thin air....
Obligations went out the window when they got rid of debtors prisons.
The way things are going mirrors won't reflect anything anymore, let alone rates/risk.
"You didn't build that 8 trillion in debt!"
Smack down in Greek town:
Ring Announcer: Welcome, fight fans,…the World Bankers Boxing Association (WBBA) is proud to bring you the Grudge Match of the Century: Smack down in Greek town.
In the red corner, wearing no trunks, is Greece, a 92 pound weakling debtor who is screaming "enough is enough, I'm not gonna take it anymore".
In the blue corner, wearing royal blue Christian Dior trunks is the Troika, three heavyweight creditors who are shouting "Heel, you disobedient Greek dog! Sit up and beg like a good EU dog.''
Under WBBA rules, the debtor fights alone against the creditor's 3-man tag team (IMF, EU, ECB).
Place your bets, fight fans. The bookies are offering a million-to-one odds against Greece.
Grab your feta or foie gras as this fight of the century is about to begin, pitting Nothing-to-Lose Greece vs Everything-to-Lose Troika.
Tonight's referee is Christian Noyer, chairman of the Board of the Bank of International Settlements.
(Round 1 bell rings)
Ring Announcer: The fight begins. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis comes charging to the center of the ring. Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem appears hesitant and remains near his corner.
Whoa! What is this! Greek Yanis has taken off his gloves!
Yanis raises his two bare-knunckled fists at Eurogroup Dijsselbloem.
This arena full of bankers is going wild with whining. Pandemonium is breaking out.
My money is on the Greek......
Come on ZH!
This is headline stuff already. Secret Chimp appears to be angry!... Or he has a 90 year old George Soros taking many steamy pisses on the Negro-in-Chief for being the "fall guy" who was stupid enough to take the orders and actually believed he could execute without thinking!!!
And why all of the Langley's and all of the Fort Meade's and DoD's won't put "Porshenko" Dumpty together again!...
P.S.
"Bath House" ain't sympathetic towards Greece... He's simply keeping those gigantic lips sealed and waiting for Georgy's next instructions and canned written speech!!!
C'mon leave Lancelot Link alone, I mean for christ sake he married Chewbacca!
C'mon leave Lancelot Link alone, I mean for christ sake he married Chewbacca!
ND +1
With the direction and lack of control(s) left by the U.S. on the remaining EU members and NovoRuss' demolition of the remaining Ukrainian/Kiev "regulars" that haven't defected yet, I'm beginning to think Darth Soros may just be desperate enough to have him assassinated as a much needed diversion at this point!
Too put icing on the "shit cake" the Tribe ain't gettin any miracles from him with Syria or Iran and the Republican Congress has Israel's back...
And Voila...
There you have it... The martyrdom of a second term "turd" to urge on an already bankrupted and economically impoverished minority population in the "I can't breathe" movement!
"Israel whips Washington" post 9/11 AGAIN!
Holy shiite, Obama said something true! I will have to put up the middle finger on my left hand to start counting the times he says something true. I imagine though that it will just be that one finger up until the end of time as the odds of his saying anything else that is not false are very very slim.
"Obama said something true!"
It means you're probably rooting for the wrong team...
I am not really rooting for any team because there is not team out theree that remotely looks anything like the team I want on the field.
Just cut everyones debt and the world would thrive.. I am pissed that Chase gave me too much credit on my card. It was predatory i tell ya.
What would happen to my pile sitting in a US bank if your plan was implemented?
It would still smell the same.
WHO'S pile, Mr. Unsecured Creditor of said bank?
Existential threat for the euro. Nothing has changed from the analysis in 2011: all of Southern Europe has violated the Maastricht Treaty. Everything agreed to when they formed the euro and the EU has been broken.
Bring back the DM. If you're a German bank, you're going to take a haircut anyway. You might as well take the haircut in marks instead writing down a bond that's never going to be paid.
Just bring back the Third Reich.
What's the problem here?
I'm sorry, unpopular view here but I'm not rooting for the fucking assholes who thought everyone could retire at 55 after working for the government.
They need to own up to their bullshit socialist driven debt, not get a free ride. Then again the stupid fucks who lent them money deserve it. But I want both sides to hurt. Curtail the fucking moral hazard in the future.
Edit: even NYT knows it's vote buying jobs:http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/opinion/the-cost-of-protecting-gree...
And public sector employees make up 22.3% of the Greek workforce. Wtf?
I wasn't sure you were talking about the US or Greece until the third from last word in your post.
Yes US deserves it too.
That's like saying all Americans that have work their asses off for 30 years supporting the other 50% that's basically retired at 25 -that allowed the FED and the Great Zero to run up record setting debt ......and then be held responsible for all the debt....
when the rest of the world had no problem buying our debt.
based on your theory - those hard working Americans shoudl just hand over their 401Ks
Last one to default is the sucker at the poker table.....