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Everything is not awesome...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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Which witch is which? Only the legend knows!
It is pretty much baked into the cake. The collapse of oil prices is going to completely wipe out an entire segment of high paying jobs (and the multipliers that go with them) and it will be very, very hard to fake shit past that point.
One Ms Meredith Whitney might have been a few years early, but when the tax base falls out from under muni's all over the US, THAT will come home to roost in many, many ways. Muni's will want more taxes from the poor sods left with income and those tax payers will start looking at exits. Once this gets going good, all hell is about to break loose.
TPTB have two options; a very big war or oil prices back up over 100 muy pronto. The latter is not going to happen as I feel it is by design. So get ready for the former.
Regards,
Cooter
Yes, I thank god every day for Obama and the progressives for giving us Obamacare and all of the other wonderful entitlements that ensure that we will no longer have to worry about a job or silly economic statistics. We now have a loving protector to look out for us, maybe going so far as to imprison those who would use underhanded capitalist methods to earn wages and lifestyles above and beyond what our collective values deem acceptable (only after relieving them of their ill gotten gains through civil forfeiture).
Glory be to our Utopia and those who have delivered us from evil!
I have thought about this quite a bit and my chips are on debtors prisons as the next rung in the ladder.
After the depression really sets in (hint: it ain't started yet), they will just lock people up or go with the slave labor angle (plenty of educated folks with skills getting snagged in this net). Unless, of course, they disgorge themselves of their assets (if valuable enough).
The crust on the top will make out like bandits, the poor will keep sponging, and the middle class will go to prison.
Maybe they can get a dirty dozen out if they volenteer for hell-on-earth for four or six years (and live).
If they don't find a way to lock people up (en masse) things might get a bit shooty.
Regards,
Cooter
Not prison
Re-education camps
Job training with a little attitude adjustment
you and me, the ornery ones
You think they will be kinder than prison? Or are you "euphamizing"?
I don't see where there are jobs in the future for most of humanity. Just being blunt. Energy complex is going to contract. Everyone, everywhere will have to make due with less. This forces priorities, like food>shelter>cell phone>car (or whatever order of whatever list).
Unemployment, going forward, is going to be permanently structural. Anything that is "productive" will have to be levied to prop up the ruling class, regardless of the form they take.
Or, as I like to put it, my grand parents were born with outhouses and died with flushing shitters. I was born with a flushing shitter and I am dying with an outhouse.
My assumption is I live as long as they do (~80 as an average across all 4 grandparents).
Regards,
Cooter
Oh, there won't be any jobs. The training and reeducation will be the ruse for imprisonment, and kind of a fall back to the WPA days of the thirties. Large numbers of pissed off Americans with no jobs, homes or money will constitute the threat they have been claiming (and pre indoctrinating us) for years. They will still need some pretense other than the complete admission of political prisoners. The progressives, after all, are all about helping us reach our full "potential". Our "reeducation" will be elevated to Obamcare fame of saving us...from ourselves.
@ CrazyCooter and OldWood:
This is from a decade ago, but could have been written just a moment ago.
http://rense.com/general63/newam.htm
I get the logic, but I don't see it happening. They've spent 60+years building a Free Shit Army, making sure people developed a real sense of entitlement and expecting something for nothing. We've removed shame from being on the dole. Bread lines? Food stamps? Not any more, now you get a shiny card and can buy anything you want. And now they're going to throw this permanent underclass into debtors prison or make them join the military?
I think we're full steam ahead for a collapse - it's the only way to clear the deadwood and start fresh.
Only those non-statists who don't go along quietly. As always, keep your head down and no complaining out loud will allow you to retain those few liberties deemed reasonable.
Policies are intended to intimidate and silence us. Those who won't be silenced will be managed so as to best create an example to the others. This is how its done. This is how the IRS works and every other arm of the law. Its called deterrence.
So just behave and everything will be fine.....well, we might survive....maybe.
The FSA will be just fine, if the example of the Romanian gypsies is any guide. Communism guaranteed gypsy men plenty of non-jobs under a form of affirmative action. The women had huge litters to qualify for the free shit Elena offered women with large families. The pups could then be dumped in orphanages for the gadjes to take care of. Austerity was for white Romanians.
Needless to say, the only ones who shed a tear at the news that the Ceau?escus had been executed were the gypsies, who were the only ones who made out better under communism than they ever had in normal countries.
The President told you, perfectly clearly, that the shadow of crisis has passed.
Anybody who disagrees with the gubmint is a terrace.
I saw an article a few weeks ago about the reemergence of debtor's prisons. Of course, just like QE, they never call things what they really are (QE is really debt monetization using a game of semantics)! Debtor's prison's, and the tyranny they represent, may not be as far away as we want to think.
Early parole for giving up a kidney
So you forgot to change logins MDB?
Faking is all they do anymore. Take another hit Dorothy, it gets better.
no...I'm pretty sure we're still in a depression since 2008.....but I'm hopin' for a recession
None of us will live long enough to see the next officially admitted recession.
I saw a blurry black and white photo of a recession, but a lot of folks say it isn't real. They say "we" are crazy.
But I still believe.
Regards,
Cooter
You are correct NoDebt, much like there are no more any offically admitted Panics since 1907, Depressions since 1937, and Recessions since 2008.
WTF? Chicken legs liar in chief fudgepacker says jobs are growing and the economy is great
In las vegas sheep are happy...Cracker Barrel is coming to town...golden coral is booming and they just opened a white castle restaraunt with all the sliders you can eat on the strip. remember when the high rollers went to the strip for the ultimate high end experience and massive spending and gambling? neither do I.....
www.ViewLasVegasRealEstate.com
Awesomeness is in the eye of the beholder. Michelle O thinks her school lunch menu is awesome, but she never had to eat the portion controlled slop. Her hubby, Obummer, says the economy is doing awesome now, but that is what he reads from the teleprompter. NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams concentrates on "Making A Difference" puff pieces that show how awesome some things are, but that is because Williams is an idiot.
"...but that is because Williams is an very well compensated idiot."
Fixed it for you. He doesn't lie to our faces for free, ya' know.
No moola, no lying lips.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled worrying and bitching about it. We all need outlets.
Look people, I didn't ask for all of these responses...my comment above is simply meant to get the author to label the axes...provide a legend, so we know that WHICH he is asserting.
Could you clarify? I thought I read and understood, so not sure what you are seeing that I didn't.
This is a straight up "growth" comparison of two indexes. 35 years of data. Did I miss something?
Regards,
Cooter
blue=gdp
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
i give blow jobs for 20 ea. to make 3000/month i need to make 100/day. easy to find 5 clean males that will pay for a blow job. want to join me because i know there are 10 or 15/day. my lips are chapped from the cold weather, but they like it rough. great career opp. click now...
Red line
US inflation has been consistently understated by 3% to 5% for decades now. So US growth is overstated by 3% to 5%. So whenever US GDP has been under 3%, the US has been in recession. But it would be so unpatriotic to report the truth in the land of the free and the greatest nation the world has ever known.
Besides, truth is treason in a fascist, police state.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Are We Already In Recession?Yes, Virginia, we are in recession now.
We're gonna need a bigger boat.
Already in? When did we ever exit?
Why couldn't I have just stayed with the green pill?
Recession...no, Depression.
Its gone mental.
I thought it was red vs blue pill.
Anyway, if you got cash in the kitty, wait for property in SE Alaska to go tits up (state is totally broke at these oil prices - they are about to screw the pooch) and pay cash for something cozy to keep your tax footprint down. Bring your guns, get you a freezer, a vaccuum sealer, and stock up on salmon/rice during the summer. Good eating in a quality rice cooker with some basic spices.
Zombies will have to swim here, being as they can't drive (no roads), so you just have to worry about zombie sharks after the fact, which is a significant improvement IMHO.
Regards,
Cooter
Nyquil
If you take enough of them you don't feel anything and sleep like a baby.
The blue pill had its own set of problems, the fake reality still crammed full of deliberate stress divergents to keep us busy. I got a world of that shit already.
Alaska is beautiful but the last time I was there it was early July and about froze my berries off.
I'm going to stay in Texas and make my stand. Too old to run but young enough to aim.
Texas has great genes if you get away from the city stuff (DFW, Austin, Houston, SA, etc). Some towns better than others (a few inbreds in there - beware) and border lands are just that.
I left TX for AK, but I have a different timeline I presume. There is vastly too much out-of-state influx as far as population goes (TX is formally recognized as a tax haven - businesses regularly shut down and move for precisely that reason) due to the constant migration of business HQ and operations to TX. It is just losing its politeness and character and spirit. It makes me sad in a way. It dillutes the otherwise magnificent character of the state. Everyplace will have assholes, but TX has the classiest assholes (if you appreciate common/natural law).
But, life is about adapting, and so we must.
And SE AK has much more temperate weather (it RAINED all of Jan here).
If you get cold bones in old age, go check out Minus33 and get you some of those merino wool thermals to wear under your regular stuff, especially if you live in a damp cold. I bought several sets for my dad (way high blood pressure - heavy on blood thinners - always cold) and he loves them.
DO NOT wash them with petro-chem soap, buy the hippy plant stuff. They will last years on delicate wash/delicate dry with heavy use.
Regards,
Cooter
I'm still locked into a lifestyle that my small pitiful business and self employed wife will not seemingly allow me to escape..but it is always tempting. My good friend has a home and acreage in northern CO and sends me property adds every week. Love it there in the mountains but it is cold and I have no way to make a living (I know, trapped in that old "making a living paradigm").
I guess I'm just dug in. But I will have to downsize to survive property taxes.
I wanted to own property once. In my digging, I discovered that sitting presidents regularly passed out (in a period of history) allodial title for all sorts of interests (think mining, ranching, industrial, etc) all over the US. It was almost always for extremely valuable land, almost always to very connected recipients, and it has never left strong hands since being granted. You won't find the stuff written about much, if at all, but it is out there.
This form of title to land is the only way to escape the tax vortex this country is rapidly heading into headfirst. Own land/property and you will get screwed 100% out of your asset before it is said and done. I drive old cars precisely for this reason. I don't want to own a damn thing - it is an odd counter-balance to the whole consumerism thing. I find it hard to give things up, then, once gone, I don't want them any more. But that repeats over and over. My most loved possessions belonged to my father/mother or their parents. Stuff like knives, skillets, wool coats, etc. I use/wear this stuff daily and I am just at a point where everything is about consumption that can't continue. This stuff from 50 or 70 or more years ago lasted a lifetime and every thing I buy today is designed to fail in a very fixed, specific period of time. I just don't want any of it anymore.
So, my strategy is build valuable skills and become a saddle in a one horse town as it were (i.e a unique combination of skills/value that is useful, verasitle, and hard to find). I, like the absolute vast majority of my ancestors, will not get to retire, but I will do something I enjoy and find rewarding until I can't. I will likely give up the ghost not too long after. If I make 80, with a warm cot, a flushing pot, and three hots, I am going to call that beating the odds.
Regards,
Cooter
Nonsense. I own a farm, my yearly taxes are 800 dollars. Far from being taxed out of my assets, this land provides our food, our wood to heat our small house, and some income ( far in excess of 800 dollars per year ). You've got a broken life model my friend, go get some good land while you can.
There is more then one way to live a strong meaningful life.
Ultimately our brain is our only defense. Hopefully I won't be short of "ammo" when the time comes.
Salmon... Fukushima... no thanks.
No, Barry keeps on repeating we'er in a recovery.
li'l green shits...
i mean shoots...
For me this latest slowdown started in oct
Same here. No new large orders, several cancellations.
Not hurting yet, still working thru' my backlog, but this summer looks grim.
Again
As these waves crash over my head I'm never sure which one will take me under. If we had let this recession actually clear out the bad debt, many of us could have made it through, but this repeated dump and weak rebound cycle is slowly eliminating our financial foundations as well as our spirit. It is this spirit to try, to risk and expend, that drives our economy. Even dead broke, if we see some hope, some potential, we can give it a try. That's the problem with corruption is that it becomes apparent that it is all pointless. The only reasonable path is with the corruption. The End.
it looks to me like we're in a big red circle with a question mark nearby.
Hello, I am Miguel from Venezuela, Your very simpatico perro has solved our toilet paper shortages. Muy gracias...now pucker up!
Recessions always occur near the end of the second term of the Presidential Political Cycle.
Then the corporations, lobbyists, and banks can use the on going chaos to manipulate legislation during the "bribery orgy hour".
Its incestuous,
I'll tell you in about 6 months.
I am and so is my business since 2009!
But Obozo sez middle class economics works!
Yes, we are the ONLY ones working.
Is zero necessarily the lower bound for LIBOR?
Wait until all of the connected, and Amongst, are clear of the dollar, and the banksters allow it to go supernova.
That's when the "real" fun begins.
The banksters nee to repay us.
so...red is GDP percent change from last years's period in question and left scale. Blue is delta of EPS from last years period in question and right scale? Source is from?
Ok, GDP is a totally fucking fake number, and EPS means what in comparison to a totally fake number? What about non-public companies, how are they doing? I agree our economy is shit, and has been for a long time ('87?) but can't somebody find better graphs to show the obvious?
balderdash I say!
The busts, recessions, depressions, are where the sheeple learn how much fleece has been stolen from them during the boom. With the onset of the employment winter, that missing fleece will be missed.
Then comes the banksters' taking of the sheeple's transportation, and roofs.
The banksters need to repay us.
"Slaves are freer than serfs."
All it takes is low taxes and belief to return to our former glory.
And for everybody to stop being such a Debbie Donner....er, Downer about everything.
Look at how many people can't wait to participate in our electoral process?
Look at all the societal engagement!
We're winning people!
Pull it together!
ROWWWWWWWWW!
Yes, they are the coalition of the willing....to rob us blind. Its blood in the water for these people who see and seek to take advantage of the chaos. Hell, many are the creators of the chaos.
We are rowing but the leaders have the tide turned against us. Jump ship and swim or drown in fees and taxes!
technically, due to the qe and zirp, manipulation of silver and gold, etc, we never exited the great recession...101 million people will say it is a depression. just cause one made money in the casion stawk mkt and gdp was artificially inflated dont make it a recovery!
it is all lies, damn lies and statistics
with Oil only fetching half of what it used to I'm surprised that data has not shown an even deeper plunge already... enjoy hiding in the shallow end of this while you can guppies!!!
This shit just got real!
The Recession of 2007 is the first one that is exactly like stepping in dog shit and not being able to clean it off your shoes for 7 years.
I winessed a RE crash in the mid 80s. Sales were at rock bottom. We picked up nice rental properties for pennies on the dollar as did many investors. Interest rates were about 9%. Then we had the late 80s early 90s recession due to loss of manufacturing. Rates started coming down and hovered around 7.5%. Property values started going up and the construction boom began howbeit at a moderate pace. This continued through the 90s until the dot com crash in early 2000s. Then we had 9/11 and fed dropped rates to near zero. Hmmm, interesting coincidence. The construction/equity boom barreled full steam ahead until 08. Then started the QE era. QEs did not solve structural problems but only propped up banks, equities, bonds, speculators and socialist jobs.
Look on the bright side. Those at the top are trapped. When financial beams give way, they will not survive. Get out of the tower while you still can. Its likely to happen suddenly without warning.
Pick up the soap Barry
Long toilet paper.
Recession = Yellen to the pedal. Rates to the floor. There's an election to be bribed. BTFD
Figure a big drop in stocks and bonds and quickly. So what difference does it make to the FSA/LOWER WORKING CLASS . none they own none of those have no equity in the homes they live in and don't care what happens to anyone as long as they can hang on. But if they can't then no one can. See it is worse than anyone here thinks. There will be no travel to the store no travel to go get gas or anything like that. Just you and your neighbors hunkered down keeping out windows and shivering all night listening to gunfire and explosions. It is fucking almost here.
That actually sounds fun. But then again, my dad always said I was a little off.
The Baltic Dry Index just hit 590, a 28 year low. A year ago it was about 1200. Looks like the answer to this question is yes.
I have a feeling things don't look good no matter where you are.
Suggesting we're already in recession implies there was an actual recovery from the last recession or the one before that. This country never recovered from the 2001 recession, the "economy" was just boosted when the housing bubble went into overdrive and deficit spending ballooned.
This country is fvcked as long as the fiscal/economic sideshow continues. All we have to do is tax some more, borrow some more and everything will be peachy keen. Not.
Blow the whole damn thing up and start from scratch.
Futures up.
Whats a recession? As small farmers we grow most of our food and heat with wood off of our property. Saw this coming many years ago and opted out.
Clearly this author needs to drink some more public water and watch more TV. He should also tune his car radio to NPR to make sure he's getting all the facts.
the Greater Depression: 2008- ?
I believe it is called the "Greatest Depression", like everything is totally awesome, it's never been better. IT'S GREAT!
A global deflationary collapse is a given and has been underway for some time. While outright deflation was only evident to most economists in Europe, Japan and some other smaller countries, the huge debt bubble preceeding deflation has been evident for years.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
For one you can't trust the GDP figures as to whether the economy is expanding or contracting, or any numbers to do with fundamentals as the shadowy world of derivatives affects all. My guess is that if true unemployment numbers are climbing and tax revenues are declining then we are in a recession. Other indicators are electrical consumption and such....yes a bottom bouncing recession
Better Headline: 'We Are In A Recession'.