Baltic Dry Plunges At Fastest Pace Since Lehman, Hits New 29 Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture

The Baltic Dry Index dropped another 3% today to 590 - its first time below 600 since 1986 and not far from the all-time record low of 554 in July 1986. Of course, the absolute level is shrugged off by the over-supply-ists and the 'well fuel prices are down'-ists but the velocity of collapse (now over 60% in the last 3 months) suggests this far more than some 'blip' discrepancy between supply and demand - this is a structural convergence of massive mal-investment meets economic reality.

The Baltic Dry Index drops even more... new 29 year lows...


The fastest 3-month plunge since Lehman...




Or under-demand...


Charts: Bloomberg

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PTR's picture

29 year low.


Ramming speed?

Pooper Popper's picture

green shoots

This is gonna be really fucking bad people!


surf0766's picture

Green shoots? Now one said B-Cups was coming back

bania's picture

You don't need shipping containers to send "Facebook Likes". It's the new economy duh!

Al Huxley's picture

Exactly.  I'm establishing a new corporation that will manufacture witty tweets about celebrity news events and sports scores.  I expect to make a fortune, with minimal investment in infrastructure.  This is the new economy.

SWRichmond's picture

It's all OK, because according to BLoomberg, Americans are splurging their "windfall" from cheap gasoline:

“We’re finally starting to feel like we’re back in the middle class,” Cheryl Saul said.

jbvtme's picture

at 65yrs after a refreshing shower i sometimes stand in front of the mirror and contemplate a descending baltic dry

macholatte's picture


Could be bad news for Somali pirates....

To paraphrase henny youngman:

Take my container ship, please.


I told the doctor I broke my leg in two places. He told me to quit going to those places.

Henny Youngman

If you're going to do something tonight that you'll be sorry for tomorrow morning, sleep late.

Henny Youngman



Almost Solvent's picture

Wife said she wanted to go somewhere she'd never been before, I said try the kitchen.

centerline's picture

classic.  that one never gets old (and always gets me in trouble - lol).

10mm's picture

Yeah, and Vegas trips just to throw it back.

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

LOL... but Bloomterd never bothered to interview Cheryl or people like her (who felt pushed out of the middle class) until now. No propaganda in 'Merican media. None whatsooooevah...

Kiwi Pete's picture

And what did these 56 year olds spend their windfall on? "In October, they visited Disney World, their priciest vacation in ages." Just sad.

sun tzu's picture

Due to their $80/mo windfall over a few months, they spent $3,000 on a vacation.

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

What's really gonna be hilarious is when the the BDI crosses under that record low at the same time the S&P hits another record high. Hard to believe both of those things could happen at once. But, I have been assured by top govt regulators and fed officials that the markets aren't manipulated so it can't be that.....

Element's picture



It's all OK, because according to BLoomberg, Americans are splurging their "windfall" from cheap gasoline:

I think it's fair to say that if you're not in the immediate oil and gas industry, the lower oil and gas prices will cushion the impacts of a parallel domestic and/or global abrupt slowdown, for the first quarter or so.

In which case you may get a slow entry to a later steep fall, or a slow fall where the hydrocarbon price cushioning and deflation keeps it as a slow fall for 2 to 3 quarters.

It's the longer-term 4 to 5 years of global macro trend sliding that worries me more, it isn't going to stop soon.



daveO's picture

Higher productivity = lower prices = higher standard of living.

sun tzu's picture

They tell us lower prices are bad. That's why they keep printing

lincolnsteffens's picture

Is this why some of the shippers stock prices shot up today cause it is looking so great???? 2 x WTF?

ZH Snob's picture

Since 1986, you say?  Fantastic.  This should be quite bullish for the s&p.  We gotta try harder though, and get that bitch into the 500's.  That'd be something to be proud of.

Stuck on Zero's picture

I suspect that we're going to start hearing about more and more ship disasters at sea.  Bermuda Triangle, mystery explosions, loss of all hands, etc. It happens every time shipping rates drop below profitable.

Panem et Circus's picture

Might be a good time to make a "few cents on the dollar" offer on one of those things. They're probably over-leveraged like everyone else in the New Normal. Someone has to make all that spice flow, right?

skeeterpi's picture

All I know is LA port is backed up, I have 2 containers in port waiting to offload since Jan 19th. Still no word as to when it will be offloaded.

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

No. Recovering from the 2014 port strike...most people don't build any excess capacity in their systems now. So the port is clicking away but can't catch up....rerouting containers to the east coast to try and easy the burdern.

dimwitted economist's picture

it means nothing.... WE'RE IN A FUCKING RECOVERY GODDAMN IT!!!!!!!

booboo's picture

"Welcome to Costco I love you"

new game's picture

go to finviz and scoll over the commod futures. see the pattern.- anupside down hockey stick. 6 month til chaos. all indicators flashing red. you name it. dr. copper. electicity usage, baltic. i don't need to go any further to know the shit is starting to spray a fine gritty  mist for everyone to consume.

green is drug use to escape, but unreported...

denver boom town frac up crack pot central -ya mon, good shit(while holding my breath) ha, ...

edit. oh and treasuries, hello, brightest red light flashing -flight to hide somewhere..

centerline's picture

BDIY has been on my list of "things to watch" for a long time now.  Gonna have to up the DEFCON status here.

Panem et Circus's picture

Just remember: due to the magic of margin calls, gold goes DOWN in price during crashes :)

symtex411's picture

less ships running the seas less oil they use too

Spungo's picture

The index would be wetter if I took my shirt off.

Philo Beddoe's picture

First over supply then under demand. 

Soul Glow's picture

So bullish.  Dow Jones 20k or bust!  BTFD!

Kaiser Sousa's picture

who cares...

the dow just went green again...!

Dr. Engali's picture

Funny how all these numbers all collapse to pre- 1990s levels.  It's almost as if all the leverage from that era forward needs to be wiped out in order to purge the system. Even the market wanted to find it's natural floor around S&P 450 before the fed finally caught the falling knife at 666.

kowalli's picture

capitalism is dead. New era will begin, but first we need to go back in history, because we make a mistake. 

Dr. Engali's picture

Capitalism, never existed. There are no such thing as bail outs or "too big to fails" in a capitalist system. In a capitalist system you are rewarded by markets for your success and punished for your failures.

Panem et Circus's picture

Holy shit, someone nailed the definition!!!

+1 Dr.

sun tzu's picture

Capitalism is dead because the federal reserve and US gummint killed it

daveO's picture

Not surprisingly, the FED was also worried about deflation (strong dollar) back in 1986. They goosed the markets ahead of Greenspan's rate hike in Aug. 1987. The rest is very predictable.

Mayer Amschel Rothschild's picture

1980s levels will only be the first pit-stop on this devestating unwind centuries in the making.  We are living in historic times.

NoVa's picture

and Point72 Cohen is hiring college grads in their 20's.  Those kids were not even contemplated by their parents back in mid 80s.  

They have no clue how FUGLY things could get -



NoDebt's picture

"We don't hire brokers, we train brokers.  You can leave."

-The Boiler Room

jon dough's picture

Can't up arrow you enough Doc.

Recall, world population was about 2 billion less in 1990 than today.

But...this should all work itself out O-Tay!

BandGap's picture

I think gas consumption is pre-80s at this point. Labor participation rate, as well.

It's like we hit rock bottom and kept on digging.


logicalman's picture

Could be in for interesting times.....

Once cheap oil has killed a bunch of oil production and all the old rotting ships have been scrapped, where will any 'recovery' come from?

If production starts to increase, the cost of moving shit around will be prohibitive.

Maybe it will force producers to produce closer to their markets - could take a while, though.

BDI goes to infinity - nothing moves.