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Guest Post: That Feeling That Something Dramatic Is About To Happen

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Stopa via Ricochet.com,

I was having a post-Departmental Colloquium dinner with a small group of colleagues from the Harvard Chemistry Department in the Spring of 2008 when the subject turned to the then-recent shudderings of the stock market – a topic which at the time was of greater concern than usual but about which none of us actually knew anything at all. One of my colleagues (in fact our host) was an elderly professor with wisps of white hair and mildly expressed yet utterly inflexible opinions—a legitimately brilliant scientist whose certainty, alas, seemed to extended beyond his expertise. He was, in my mind, a model of the reflexively liberal, raised-on-the-Gospel-of-Saint-Krugman scientist that abounds at Harvard and in academia in general. And, despite a recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the order of 10%, the professor dismissed any serious worry, suggesting that the ups and downs of the market were just meaningless tides of funny money.

“Rob” I said (not his real name), “I am sympathetic about that. And I too get the feeling that all these billions of created and lost dollars don’t seem to actually make a difference in our lives. But the Wall Street people are sounding a little more frantic than usual these days. They’re talking as though this time it’s really going to matter.”

Of course, the Wall Street people, as it turns out, were quite right, as the market dropped another 20% over the course of a few days in June and then (just to show they weren’t kidding) another 20% or so over the ensuing half year—taking with it down the rabbit hole around $11 billion of Harvard’s endowment. And, just to be explicit, because Harvard ran a substantial portion of its operation on interest from the endowment, that meant that building and hiring freezes, salary cuts, early retirement, and various other features of austerity weighed heavily on the Ivory Tower for quite a while. These days, I understand that Harvard has gone back to burying their money in an environmentally friendly tin can in the back yard, which might be about the only place that it is going to be safe this year.

Because, in case you haven’t heard, there is a real battle royale developing today over all of our collective futures regarding the current (this time equities) bubble and featuring roughly the same cast of characters (some play Bulls, some play Bears, one Oscar nominee plays the Fed Chairman) that oversaw our last catastrophe.

Unfortunately I don’t seriously understand economics and the stock market any better than I did six years ago. But (invoking my droit de scienziato and relying on my Ricochetti audience to chime in with facts and perspectives as they always do) here is how I see the situation:

There is intense debate going on in the worlds of economics, politics, and finance as to whether we will, in 2015, experience the mother of all stock market crashes or whether, instead, we will float along ever higher on the happy cloud that has been making at least some people rich over the last few years (or whether, for a third possibility, we will just muddle along somewhere in the middle). Beyond the diatribes from the punditocracy, there is a mood – maybe it is idiosyncratic – but there’s the feeling that something dramatic is about to happen. I mean, a snowstorm hits and the local supermarket runs out of bread?! Are we all rehearsing for something here?

On the one hand, as the President proudly articulated last week, things are moving along just swell. The economy grew at a rate of 5% in the third quarter, the stock market has gone up a healthy 8% or so in the past year, oil prices have been cut in half and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.6%. What could go wrong?

The political elite and particularly the left elite (like Paul Krugman) are whistling a happy tune and calling, if anything, for more fiscal stimulus because…hell, money is cheap!

The other contingent of smiley faces right now are the Wall Street grunts—the everyday stockbrokers who make their living on tapping the firehose from ma and pa’s 401ks and piping it into that sunshine machine just downtown from the Bowery. It is their job for the most part to sell equities because they live in the quaint world where the market actually has to go up in order for anyone to make any money.

These are the bulls who come off the assembly line. There are a lot of them. So even if they don’t speak with a whole lot of authority their collective bellow sways a lot of opinion. (They punch, as Obama says, above their weight).

It is an unfortunate feature of their job that these bulls (much like offensive lineman in the NFL) don’t get noticed unless something has gone wrong. You will note, for instance, that Drudge follows the major moves of the stock market. Check it out sometime to see if I am right, but I feel that every time the Dow Jones index drops, oh, 350 points in a day there is a top and center photo on Drudge of some 30-something broker, glasses in his mouth, a buddy leaning over his shoulder, watching a screen that is out of the picture with a glassy-eyed expression of cold horror—like they’re watching the approach of a tsunami from the beach. Have you seen that picture?

So even the Bulls seem to sense that something is, sooner or later, coming.

What about the Bears?

The Bears are rather an interesting lot. There are the everyday stock market analyst Bears running this or that Capital Fund. There are the Republican lawmaker Bears who are Bears by instinct. But most interesting to me is the culture of Uber-Bears (though I am sure they don’t think of themselves that way) who run websites like Zero Hedge (you can find links to their many brethren within) and whose motto on the masthead, (where you expect to see things like “all the news that’s fit to print”) is “On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”

This little community is convinced that the end is nigh. I am not really sure just who they are (anyone out there know?) but they seem to be a kind of Austrian economics-inspired cadre of Wall Street whiz kids. They post articles about the Fed pumping (and China pumping and Draghi pumping) and other morality tales with titles like (just recently) “Lies and Deception in Ukraine’s Energy Sector,” and “Fired Before Hired: How Corporations Rigged the Job Market and Killed the American Dream.”

To say that the perspective is cynical does not convey the picture. Compared to them, Rasputin is as dark as the raincoat girl on the box of Morten’s Salt. And I would not say they are humorless. But the humor is definitely of the Dr. Strangelove variety (like Buck Turgidson: “if the pilot’s good, see, I mean, if he’s reeeally sharp….”).

In its way it makes for some refreshing reading.

But what do they say?

Well, there’s a good argument (intellectually, I mean) to be made, and they make it time and again, that we are, in fact, all cannon fodder and that the only sensible thing to do is to stock up on rice and shotgun shells and get to work on that shelter in the backyard. To wit:

  • The 5% rise in GDP was built on consumer spending and most of that came from the increases in healthcare costs.
  • The quantitative easing around the world has led to a massive build-up of useless production. It has led, for instance, to a massive overproduction not just of oil but of other commodities like steel whose prices have plummeted in the past few years.
  • The Volatility Index (VIX) is not yet at historic highs, but it is rising and when it has risen in the past (prior to major economic collapses) it has risen fast. Oh, and, by the way, the VIX ended up 18.7% yesterday!
  • Little tremors like that election in Greece that you heard about are pulling the curtain down on the powerbrokers in the EU and Germany and the whole euro fantasy that a common currency can exist across independent, absurdly profligate welfare states.

Etc., etc.

They make a compelling argument. For those of us who have read Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short” and refuse to give an inch in any cynicism “pie eating” contest, there’s the suspicion of gold in them there hills. The only problem with the Zero-Hedgers – and it’s the same problem that you get all the time with the Austrians – is that they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when.

 

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Mon, 02/02/2015 - 18:51 | 5736745 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ah, yes, the Dennis Gartman feeling.  

Three peaks and a doomed house.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 18:52 | 5736752 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

We had a lot of late melt-ups like today's in 2008 before everything went to hell. Almost always triggered by some wire report suddenly claiming all would be well. Just like today's FT manipulation.

 

Rand Paul in EPIC on-air tirade against CNBC:

http://tinyurl.com/ov46ttr

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:03 | 5736791 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

 "I was having a post-Departmental Colloquium dinner with a small group of colleagues from the Harvard Chemistry Department in the Spring of 2008"

 

STOPPED.........................READING..........................THERE................................

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:06 | 5736800 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I was dumb enough to skip to the bottom and see the smear against ZHers and Austrian economists in general.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:11 | 5736821 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

"Buy gold"

Alan Greenspan Oct 2014 at CFR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4-Tru_30A

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:21 | 5736860 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The real Hahvawd snobs never mention the place directly.  They just say "at school"  expecting you to know.

OK, that shit is annoying, but worse things have been said about us, and he didn't even get around to the wall to wall tin hat stuff.

First they laugh, then they fear, then they run for the hills.    Winning.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:24 | 5736871 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

Punxsutawney Phil got his BS from Penn State, then went on to graduate work at Harvard...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:17 | 5737037 pemdas
pemdas's picture

Short term interest rates are 0% or negative in most of the world. People a paying for the privilege of losing money! The Dow yields more than the 30 year treasury bond, kind of like the early 50's.  And you ask where are the bears? I'm asking where are the bulls.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:36 | 5737109 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"Unfortunately I don’t seriously understand economics and the stock market any better than I did six years ago"

I can't believe I kept reading this far (5th paragraph)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 22:58 | 5737561 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Here's what's really going on with this asshole.  He WANTS to be a ZHer but he's so enamored of the Harvard mystique (which by the way is ground zero for the assholes at the CFR and all the other 'think tanks' in the snake pit) that he can't bring himself to take the required stand.  As such, he is a punk who deserves to have his face shat upon. Fuck him and his white haired homoerotic love object.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:29 | 5737800 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Funny, I read it as two other things.  First, he completely endorsed his readers coming here to see and learn for themselves.  Second, he admitted ZH is right AND his frustration that ZH cannot name the time date.

That last bit has us all wound up, if you are honest.  I think most of us are resigned to the matter of this thing is going to blow.  What stresses those so resigned is not knowing when.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 04:43 | 5738102 Hammy27
Hammy27's picture

Well, knowing when is the most important thing. Any analysis is completely useless unless you can tell when it will happen. Let's put it the other way and say your playing heads up at poker against somebody without looking at your cards. The only thing you know is that you will lose all your hands except of one. Unless your able to know when you are dealt this very hand, you'll lose the game...

This is the very same thing with shorting the market. Unless your able to call the exact time (or at least timeframe) you'll run out of money before your desired event happens (if he appears at all, because burlesque seems to be a virtue for ZHers). But to be honest, I don't believe that many of the commentators here trade according to what they say. And this is coward. Telling all the time how bad everything is and having a distinct opinion about the markets (everything will go down to zero tomorrow, except gold - but most of them will trade gold futs so they are worthless as well) without placing some bets is just... boring.

So, from that point of view... enjoy your day :)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:38 | 5736915 fauxhammer
fauxhammer's picture

"On the one hand, as the President proudly articulated last week, things are moving along just swell"

Yeah but he's strictly on a need-to-know basis.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:23 | 5737051 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I'll usually give you the first paragraph.

To be honest, I stopped at 'because, in case you haven't heard' and scrolled to the comments.

There's often more information and thought provoking stuff there than in the articles.

That's why I spend so much time here.

Some arseholes too, but that's the price you pay.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:03 | 5737203 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

I followed the link at the top of this ZH article and went to the Ricochet site - you should read their comments!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:34 | 5737289 unrulian
unrulian's picture

+1 yea they are hilarious I clipped one you all might enjoy:

AIG

Sorry, but I find it interesting (funny) that you characterize people in Harvard as having been wrong, but the…frankly…crazies at Zero Hedge as a more reasonable alternative.

1) The “reflexively liberal” Harvard professor was 100% right.

Since “Spring of 2008? the stock market is…only…up by about 50% ;)

2) Harvard’s endowment fund…only…earned about 15% returns in 2014. Of course, they’re in the business of also reducing risk for Harvard, not just making returns.

3) ZH has little to do with “Austrians”, of course. ZH is a collection of crazies whose job is to constantly say that the world is going to collapse next Tuesday. Surely, some Tuesday, things will be bad, and the crazies will say “see we told you”.

But it ain’t going to be next Tuesday.

 

PS: Now, to go back to what I found interesting in the beginning. You start off with a story from 2008, about someone saying that “meh, things will pick up again”, as evidence of them being “wrong”?

But it’s 2015. We know things picked up again, and he was absolutely right. So what’s the take-away here?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:45 | 5737328 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

I did. Quite a pile of douchebags who fancy themselves intelligent. Spare me.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:44 | 5737821 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

And we're the crazies! 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:04 | 5736794 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The only people who have any idea when the collapse will happen are the ones with their finger on the detonantor.

Why would any reasonable adult think that there's a predicitibility in an economic sense as to how long fraud can continue?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:11 | 5736812 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

Not even those fuckers will know it until after the button has been pushed...

 

An incredible anecdote about "TIME" is that we are all actually living in the past [because it takes the human brain several milliseconds to actually observe & process data via the senses and create an interpretation of it]...

 

The term "WTF" is applicable here MacGruber 

 


Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:57 | 5736973 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I think it takes a lot longer than several milliseconds, just based on observation.

In many cases, there's input that NEVER gets processed.

 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:14 | 5737021 Romney Wordsworth
Romney Wordsworth's picture

I hereby ac·qui·esce to the resident mathemetician...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:45 | 5737824 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

What?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 23:13 | 5737576 brodix
brodix's picture

They will only know when they push the button and nothing happens, a la, 87, 91, 00, 08. The poles of social control are hope and fear and the power of money is that it is quantified hope. When the tide turns and this bubble of hope pops once and for all, there will be more than a few surplus financiers thrown to the masses as sacrificial lambs, by our new masters. No stories of generals commiting suicide. They are just licking their lips. What goes up, comes back down. 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:09 | 5736815 booboo
booboo's picture

"It is their job for the most part to sell equities because they live in the quaint world where the market actually has to go up in order for anyone to make any money"

Well I hate to break this to you Bub, they make money off them muppets in either direction.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:49 | 5737151 GernB
GernB's picture

Lol, I think that quaint world he is talking about is the one that came to prominence in the computer age, where rapidly advancing technology meant you ignore yield and invest in growth. There was a time in the quaint old past when you would have been thought crazy for investing in a company like Amazon that had negative earnings quarter  after quarter.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:15 | 5736837 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

Rand Paul was funny today on CNBC. I agree with that. He kept his cool most of the time while he was explaining but he did get so annoyed when the talking head talked...He made some points for sure. 

http://goldsilverbitcoin.com

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:14 | 5737022 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

That Kelly Evans is really an annoying bitch. She is supposed to do a hatchet job on Paul but can't even do that. Don't know why Rand goes on this channel anyways, it has like 10,000 viewers. Waste of time and they were very disrespectful to Ron Paul so fuck them.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 10:56 | 5738754 slipperyPete50
slipperyPete50's picture

too funny, @ 2:38 he actually called her a ho, ho, ho

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:05 | 5736796 Alternate Skiffy
Alternate Skiffy's picture

Global Trends 2015 - National Intelligence Report

http://goo.gl/qF6nO9

The US economy suffers a sustained downturn. Given the large trade deficit and low domestic savings, the US economy—the most important driver of recent global growth—is vulnerable to loss of international confidence in its growth prospects that could lead to a sharp downturn, which, if long-lasting, would have deleterious economic and policy consequences for the rest of the world. Key trading partners would suffer as the world’s largest market contracted, and international financial markets might face profound instability

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:05 | 5736807 noben
noben's picture

Ah, yes, the Zero Hedge feeling. [FIFY]

Sorry, could not resist. GFY if you can't take a joke.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 22:26 | 5737460 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

I don't know who this Michael Stopa is, but I like his naivete, feigned or otherwise.

Take it from the ZH squad, buddy, your intution is on the money. 

Then again, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, and the answer to your question, my friend, is blowin' in the wind.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 04:39 | 5738096 iclouding
iclouding's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 18:52 | 5736746 stant
stant's picture

I had that feeling in 2000 and in 2006. And have ever since 2009

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 18:57 | 5736768 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Me too, but 2009 was before endless money printing.  Who knows what will happen this time.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:31 | 5736888 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

I love this: "they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when."

Because having the right idea but the wrong timing makes you... wrong! And we have definitely been wrong for quite a while. But while our non-ZH friends go about their business and ignore reality, they will not -- ultimately -- be able to ignore the effects of reality.

And at that time we will be... right!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:48 | 5736939 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

This Stopa guy seems to be an arrogant, colossal DICK in just about every way imaginable. If he equates ZH'rs as the perma-bears who are predicting a sky-is-falling philosophy, would he and his fellow dirt-star surfers at Harvard acknowledge that they were wrong when the day of judgement arrives?

Of course not. That's the day that the internet goes dark, the grid goes down, and humanity generally becomes fucked on a global scale.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:53 | 5737833 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

I don't know anything about him but he is certainly driving traffic to ZH, encouraging some learning, and open debate.  Even if I'm wrong and this is all ridicule... it is better to be ridiculed than ignored.

When was the last time FCMSNNABCOX talked about ZH and drove readers here? 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:00 | 5736773 noben
noben's picture

You get the exact same effect when watching a French movie:

You think that something is about to happen at any moment, but it never does. The movie always ends with some stoic BS and leaves you hanging.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:52 | 5737840 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Huh.  I never knew French movies had endings as I never stayed either awake or in the room long enough to find out.  Who knew?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:20 | 5736844 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

I had that feeling just yesterday.  Something dramatic - an explosion of sorts - did happen.  Good thing the bathroom was nearby.  All better now.

Maybe that was a different feeling.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:11 | 5737013 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

had the mexican?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 18:55 | 5736759 order66
order66's picture

Love douchebags that write articles without actually saying something besides jerking themselves off by dropping Harvard in the first sentence.

And after all, a background in Chemistry really prepares your for economics.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:00 | 5736775 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

As though economists really have a clue...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:53 | 5737167 GernB
GernB's picture

Come one lets be fair, it is every bit a scientific as political science.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:07 | 5736808 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Well a background in Chemistry does prepare one for dissapointment... and explosions.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:10 | 5736817 usednabused
usednabused's picture

Just what was the fuckwad trying to say? Talking about a ZERO.... there you go

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 09:14 | 5738388 Money_for_Nothing
Money_for_Nothing's picture

He is saying that him and his (friends ?) don't know squat but are scared and shouldn't be held responsible for all this Socialism that everyone is stepping in and scraping off their boots.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:00 | 5736783 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

the DOW will soon be back over 18,000 again.... on it's way to 20,000 LOL!!!!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:27 | 5736846 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

DOW 8,000,000!!!! 

Print.. print... print... print... print...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:21 | 5736863 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

in fiat it can go to any number you like. meaningless

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:54 | 5737170 GernB
GernB's picture

Honestly, I think we could see one more all time high.... before it all goes to hell.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:55 | 5737847 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Yeah but that one more very well could be many multiples of the current one.  ECB printing in March to take over for Japan.  ECB won't get it done.  FR will have to step in and carry the burden.  Whether they try to raise rates in the mean time only matters for short term thinking.  Then end is predefined and inescapable at this point.  The only question is how fast it happens.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:01 | 5736786 blindman
blindman's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU there is bread and milk and there is guns and butter. i guess there is some kind of choice in there, somewhere?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:04 | 5736792 JetsettingWelfareMom
JetsettingWelfareMom's picture

On a long enough timeline they're right...and if not God help us all...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:04 | 5736797 Binko
Binko's picture

My big fear is that the scumbags in power have stumbled on a sweet spot where all the ZIRP and QE and other manipulation is just enough to keep the whole rotten edifice propped up by slowly sucking prosperity from the bottom 99% and funneling it to the top.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:08 | 5736816 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Yeh thats what the Swiss Franc shorts vs Euro longs were thinking also ...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:05 | 5736799 prefan4200
prefan4200's picture

"The only problem with the Zero-Hedgers – and it’s the same problem that you get all the time with the Austrians – is that they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when."

Stupid point.  If you know a website or person that can tell you "when", then name names.  But you don't.  That specific criticism of the Z-H'ers is invalid, because that criticism applies to everyone, yourself included.  Nobody knows at this moment exactly when the SHTF, or even if it has already started for real. 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736833 lordylord
lordylord's picture

An Austrian wouldn't claim to know when.  Nor would they try to control an entire economy like some other group of economists we all know.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:31 | 5736896 Saucy-Jack
Saucy-Jack's picture

Yeah, like the Keynesians can provide the when.

What a fucktard.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:48 | 5736941 Harry Balzak
Harry Balzak's picture

Keynesians say everything is fixed and Austrians are in denial.  

 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:56 | 5737178 GernB
GernB's picture

Just ask all the trillionarie analysts who made their fourtune predicting markets. Those guys could tell you excatly when,

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:07 | 5736803 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Another one wants to know 'when' . Well, when you live in the dark, you never have to worry about going blind.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:20 | 5736850 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Of Course one James Cramer can tell you on Thursday that Bear Stearns is good money and on Monday they are wiped out. So there's that

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:11 | 5737012 weburke
weburke's picture

agreed, when is now, and for more and more people, and the future is.....more and more people head towards the 4th world black hole, and more and more head in that direction. And then more.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:09 | 5736819 CosmicDebris
CosmicDebris's picture

"There is intense debate going on in the worlds of economics, politics, and finance as to whether we will, in 2015, experience the mother of all stock market crashes or whether, instead, we will float along ever higher on the happy cloud that has been making at least some people rich over the last few years (or whether, for a third possibility, we will just muddle along somewhere in the middle). Beyond the diatribes from the punditocracy, there is a mood – maybe it is idiosyncratic – but there’s the feeling that something dramatic is about to happen. I mean, a snowstorm hits and the local supermarket runs out of bread?! Are we all rehearsing for something here?"

Who in the motherfuck knows anymore.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:13 | 5736822 richsob
richsob's picture

I gave up trying to figure out the timing.  I just do the right thing and hope for the best.  If I'm left waiting for The End many more years then I will have had a longer life in a society that was still functioning and it was a blessing to live in a time when the shelves were full, my doctor could fix almost anything and the air was breathable.  If I'm stuck with a fate where the shit hits the fan soon then I will have had a good ride and I'll just get to see how damn smart I really was trying to prepare myself for the "inevitable".

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:34 | 5736902 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Lovely stuff there, mate.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736823 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The main theme here is corruption and cronyism. And that nothing should be taken at face value. People's politics vary. Not everyone is a prepper. And some of us have been saying the same thing since the early 2000s: that there is only bubble economics left because the US economy is horribly sick and broken. Even now we are chasing the last bubble and calling it "a return to normal." Absent a real reckoning and aknowledgement of what we've currently become, there are only bubbles and crashes. That's why it's so predictable, the timing notwithstanding.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:34 | 5736903 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Since the early 2000s? I know a guy who's been saying that since August 15, 1971.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:40 | 5736924 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Wasn't born then.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:42 | 5736929 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

You missed my point. But it's ok. Besides, I think his grandfather was saying the same thing starting December 23, 1913.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:45 | 5736936 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I got your point, I'm just being defensive. I said that because this guy made it seem like '08 was a surprise to everyone, or as if the thinking here is somehow new.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:49 | 5736947 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

It's cool, but I still don't think you got my point. Those dates are not random.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:40 | 5737118 logicalman
logicalman's picture

In 1967, during the 6 Days War, all I kept hearing on the news was about the economy and how the war might effect the growth of the economy.

The world ceased to make any sense to me, when I thought about things carefully.

I was 12 years old, but I was fortunate to have 2 parents who were clear thinkers and would always try to answer my questions.

My father pointed out to me, at the age of about 14 that trans-national corporations were evil entities and would end up being the scourge of the earth.

I think (hope?) I'm a realist.

 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736825 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

Uber bear... I like it. Thanks douchebag

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:26 | 5736881 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes, and it helps one write tight, but I also like,

  "that dog won't hunt";)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736826 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

I hear there is meeting of ZH followers to be held in Jonestown Guyana next month.  All of you numbnuts are invited and refreshments will be served.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:58 | 5736974 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Thanks for the heads up.

You will be giving the invocation I assume?

Please consider making it brief and non denominational.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:07 | 5737003 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

What flavor of Kool-Aid?

I hear cyanide is kinda bitter, so you better add extra sugar.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:13 | 5736828 new game
new game's picture

woke up from a nap and read this, might as well have been sleeping...

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736831 Gnostech
Gnostech's picture

I wonder if he even realizes what the quote is from, or that it's meaning in ZH's case is really talking about ALL fiat money and not just cyclical down-turn. We might seem like doom & gloomers, or maybe these professors who have no idea what they're doing have gotten away with far too much for far too long. People are starting to wake up and smell the bullshit, and as a chemistry professor he should understand what the nitrates in fertilizer can do. :)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:14 | 5736832 RhoneGSM
RhoneGSM's picture

How can you tell that someone went to Harvard? They tell you within a minute of meeting them.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:29 | 5736891 hawk nation
hawk nation's picture

That applies to a golden domer too

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 22:16 | 5737427 Hulk
Hulk's picture

A golden domer ??? Is that, like, a human alpha particle scatterer experiment ???

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:17 | 5736840 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The shit I took this morning was more informative and entertaining than this.........

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:21 | 5736855 DOGGONE
Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:23 | 5736856 honestann
honestann's picture

Well, I don't really believe in "calling the top" just an instant before the house of cards collapses... but... I could nominate this guy as a great fall guy for doing that.

One thing is for sure, he sure as hell won't have to wait decades for something big to chatter mindlessly about.  Hope he isn't ready.  :-)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:20 | 5736857 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

"Meet the Lady you deserve Find Asian love now Join Free"

 

"Dont miss today's deals from AT&T Start Saving "

 

"Sprout Physical Buillion Trusts Raising the bar in precoius metals investing "

 

"Corporate Management reporting with Real Financial Intelligence Try it Now"

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:24 | 5736873 Alberich
Alberich's picture

Well there's one thing you can't lose, it's that feeeeeeel

You've had it since '72, it's that feeeeeeel

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:28 | 5736884 Salah
Salah's picture

Later this month & early March, 3 planets in Aries---the sign of war.  Is that enough to ring your chimes?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:29 | 5736885 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

2008 looks more and more like a Royale with Cheese rather than a Battle Royal as those who just slept through the whole darn thing win.

 

I do think this Ukraine thing is a big deal....getting sick and tired of Mish Shedlock celebrating every time the Ukes are "wise enough not to fight"... as if he knows anything about these things.

 

I still think we're getting sucked into a Civil War over there "and this aint Vietnam or the Taliban."

 

Everyday is just another day where we are committed on both sides of the aisle to do more....and this fits Disabledvet's textbook example of a "war machine."

 

These things can ramp up with surprising speed too.

 

The Russian military hardware is nothing to be trifled with in my view.

 

And that's just the conventional stuff.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:45 | 5736925 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

IMO, the item and many of the comments fail to take into consideration the fact that ZH has changed rapidly over the last few years.  Its readers and commentators have multiplied many times over, and its content has expanded from a narrow Wall Street technical commentary into a larger field of macro-economic and political insights.  Why is this so?  My take is that its roots in statistical analysis and clear statements of fact, as opposed to main stream media bullmanure. has attracted the interest of non-Wall Streeters (like myself).  Given the thick fog of MSM propaganda, the independent analysis provided by ZH has been most refreshing.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:42 | 5736932 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

The only reason we can't tell you when it's going to happen, because us 'zerohedgers' or austrians, do not control the markets. Nor do we want to. We aren't responsible for QE's, wars, or price manipulation. It is impossible for anyone to know when, unless they control the system. It's people like this that I will not feel sorry for when SHTF and they are not prepared to deal with it. He obviously has listened to enough people and has done some research on his own. 

It's the people who aren't prepared who haven't heard the arguments from austrian economists that I feel sorry for. They don't realize their world is about to get turned upside down. Please try your best to have civil, educational conversations with this type of people. We need as many people as possible to be prepared for the upcoming financial storm. 

If someone listens to your warnings about the dollar collapse but is little hesitant to act, getting them a candle with a silver coin can help. https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers . They will research silver on their own. They will a reason to visit their local coin shop. They will have a head start on their silver stacking. And they will not feel so timid and unaware about protecting their wealth!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:54 | 5736967 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Remember, ladies and gents, the stock market represents claims on wealth, not wealth.  How long can optimism reign?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:56 | 5736969 Lea
Lea's picture

I've been waiting for something dramatic to happen for over three years: a major market crash, people mass-rallying with pitchforks out in the streets all over the world, the American/EU establishment honchos eyes suddenly lighting in green, something. Something at all.

What do I get? People endlessly moaning about "banksters", gun control and Cannabis legalization on the Internet, a one-million truckers rally where only thirty trucks turned up, the Fed conjuring moar and moar banknotes with that vapid smile of theirs, moar and moar wars, moar an moar joblessness and the Western countries rapidly turning into banana republics. And people still endlessly moaning about "banksters", gun control and Cannabis legalization on the Internet.

So, I'll wait for that crash, and only then will I worry about it.

BTW, do you know that in Haiti, they say that the whole of the EU/USA establishment are zombies? No that far off the mark, I say.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:14 | 5737025 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Apparently there was some serious problem solving going on around the world today, just look at the VIX.... All Clear Bitchez!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:23 | 5737064 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Government troll says what?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 19:59 | 5736976 Matthew John
Matthew John's picture

To say that the perspective is cynical does not convey the picture. Compared to them, Rasputin is as dark as the raincoat girl on the box of Morten’s Salt. And I would not say they are humorless.

LOL

The only problem with the Zero-Hedgers – and it’s the same problem that you get all the time with the Austrians – is that they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when.

NO shit.

If we could... we'd be culpable... but we pay attention and look for the signs.


Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:19 | 5737038 MauritiusGold
MauritiusGold's picture

Colloquium - why don't they call it a seminar like a human being would? Does using such words make them feel superior or something?
They'll be having the mother of all colloquiums when the shit finally hits the fan!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:21 | 5737049 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Isn't a colloquium connected to a bag of shit ?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:30 | 5737082 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when.

And in Algebra, they teach you if you know one side of the Equation,....

My Buddy and I play a game.. called How it will go Down.. quite entertaining..

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 01:16 | 5741887 cents gradeschool
cents gradeschool's picture

HAPPY TRAILS, Bro! Muah!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 23:29 | 5737169 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Rice by itself is an incomplete amino acid source, and i'm way past worrying about having a sufficient quantity of shotshells.

 

On the other hand, one of the best articles I've read on the basics of Treasury auctions was published on ZH several years ago. I wish Tyler(s) would add some more technical articles as in the earlier years.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:56 | 5737175 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Stacking the ammo and beans high and deep.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 20:59 | 5737184 max2205
max2205's picture

Bears have only about a year and a half max of fun every 10 to 20 years here in Amerika 

 

It hard.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:00 | 5737187 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

Reading that was like nails on a chalk board.

 

The snootiness good God!  I worked with F's like this at GE back in the '90s.  

 

They were annoying then...now it makes my skin crawl.

 

 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:05 | 5737194 GernB
GernB's picture

I think the author is just scared. He started reading Zero Hedge and it's all making way too much sense.

It's all part of the five stages of grief. He is in the first stage of denial and isolation, soon he will transition to anger, when we realized just how screwed he is. When he hits bargaining he will start investing like crazy thinking he can trade his way out of this mess. Once he looses all his money doing that it's stage 4: depression. After that comes acceptance when he becomes one of the more active members of Zero Hedge.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:10 | 5737196 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Currency war in the 9th inning.

US banks have to settle debts in USD$.

US banks have to make new loans accepting US Treasuries as collateral.

Soon, the US will be the bagholder of all worthless USD$.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:23 | 5737235 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Allow me to "indulge"...

If you want to wrap your head around the way this one will play out then look no further!

Good news is you probably will be 500 points "up" on the NYSE before "it" happens...

Bad news is I think the worst people that are in charge of the Western establishment who have been psychotic all of their lives will get stupid because they are of course all fucking senile and the worst kind of greedy and nobody who works for them has the guts to pull the "trigger" to end the misery for all of us!  Not much to look forward to even if you are asleep in bed or bangin the "old lady"...

Till then?....

Practice makes perfect!  Keep fuckin like it's an Olympic event!!!

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:26 | 5737259 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The US economy is about to get a bullet between the eyes.

Obozo's hallucinating.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 03:42 | 5738041 CHX
CHX's picture

A silver bullet, that is. Just like garlic is to vampires, silver and gold are to the USD ;-)

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:50 | 5737343 Unix
Unix's picture

Listen up, these hah-vahd guys know it all already.  Just because ZH exposes stuff that the MSM does not, doesn't make it wrong.

I for one could care less what those ivory tower coddlers think anyway, most of them are dumber than dirt, when it comes to common sense anyway.

As to being a perma-bear site, well hell yes, just look around at the abject lies, criminality and cover ups, to go along with insane keynsian economics of failure all around us.

A crash is coming, no one ever has said when, no one knows, or they would be gazzionaires.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 21:51 | 5737347 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

"but they can't tell you when."...When? The day CRIMINALS are put in check!

 

hint, won't be another six years

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 22:18 | 5737440 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

Dear Michael Stopa,

In chemistry terms you are seeking the element that beholdens , 'bearish', which may shown on the periodic table of elements this way....

 

    00.00

      Zh

   (0.000)

 

 

 

 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 23:27 | 5737631 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

This guy has a braincloud ...and!.. is suspected to be slightly cross-eyed to boot. A sheepwalker for sure, indicating that he was once part of experimental media trials run by the CIA in mass hypnosis. Sadly, as usual, the prognosis is terminal befuddlement.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 23:28 | 5737635 barndoor
barndoor's picture

The ZH crowd is too cynical to see that this dude is in the same boat as the rest of us - deeply concerned abou the current state of affairs and trying understand what the f@ck is going on. 

For christ's sake - he's reading Zero Hedge, finds it intersting and the arguments compelling.  He observes that the therories here don't have a distinct timeline (which they f@cking don't) and everyone here wants to string him up next to Paul, Ben and Janet. 

There is just as much groupthink here as anywhere else. 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 02:07 | 5737932 The Darwin Mode
The Darwin Mode's picture

"Everyone here wants to string (Michael Stopa) up next to Paul, Ben and Janet." --barndoor

Incorrect. Exaggerative. Indignant. Immature.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 23:43 | 5737691 _Doomsayer
_Doomsayer's picture

Why is everyone so sensitive? the guy paid you Austrian school whiz-kids a compliment. In the  snarky, condescending manner befitting a member of the intelligentsia.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 02:16 | 5737948 The Darwin Mode
The Darwin Mode's picture

"This little community is convinced that the end is nigh." --M. Stopa

There are plenty of religious end times types in here, and no shortage of gloom and doom chart porn, but the overarching appeal of ZH to me is that it offers a counterpoint to the MSM's everything'll-be-great-forever messaging. The author's use of the term "little community" is deliberately marginalizing and condescending -- which is fine, he can do that -- but it might provoke a response. And for dudes like me, this disparaging "the end is nigh" comment is simply way off the mark. I'm betting most ZHers are just trying to forecast what these next couple decades are going to be like so they can respond effectively... no fear theater there.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 00:47 | 5737826 Rock and Hard Space
Rock and Hard Space's picture

Every year for the past three decades I've risked upwards of $1000 (annually) betting that my house will burn down.

So far that is more money than I (now) have in equity.

According to the Rose Colored, Harvard/Krugman crowds, I guess I should cancel my insurance because it has never paid off and as such even though I maybe right and my house may still burn down, I've been wrong until now and THAT is the take away.

Fools and tools running the country into oblivion while blowing each other and throwing great parties in honor of their own greatness.

I'm guessing the geniuses like this will just silently slink away when TSHTF.

Hell, I've been predicting - wrongly - for years that "something is about to happen," and yet, here I am, still wrong and still banking on reality eventually coming back.

At least when it does I won't be sitting around slack jawed in horror as I realize all those I mocked and shouted down weren't so wrong after all.

Forewarned is forearmed.  Works for home insurance, will work for collapse too.

Good luck to all those that believe their daily dose of lies and bullshit statistics.  And to those of us that don't believe, too, good freaking luck to us all.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 01:10 | 5737874 dsty
dsty's picture

well, if you've got the bucks you can buy one of these deluxe doomsday shelters in NZ

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2931325/Super-rich-buying-proper...

lot of lovely photo's of luxury houses on beautiful settings

think they will be safe there?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 01:40 | 5737900 enzo1989ferrari
enzo1989ferrari's picture

I am not sure if you have ever heard of Woody Dorsey-but this guy is amazing. I have never seen anyone predict trend reversals weeks in advance,until now. He has predicted every turn since the September-the high date-low date and now the high date again. I ve been using his reports and they are amazing. I was able to set up my trades before the market turned...Thing of his reports as you would watch the weather channel to help prepare you for the storm that is about to arrive..

The report that Mr. Dorsey sends will significantly imporve your trading in order to accumulate the most profits.. In his reports, he will describe what the sentiment will be for that time period, so that during a "declining week" you ll be able to short the bounces. Use his reports with your trading patterns to increase your profits.....Knowing the direction of the current market can mean huge profits.

 See for yourself—

http://www.sentimenttiming.com/crash-dates/


Tue, 02/03/2015 - 02:29 | 5737908 The Darwin Mode
The Darwin Mode's picture

"The only problem with the Zero-Hedgers – and it’s the same problem that you get all the time with the Austrians – is that they can tell you what…but they can’t tell you when." --Michael Stopa

This smug, self-congratulatory line seems to imply that Keynesians can "tell you when", such as: escape velocity will be reached on _____________. And nailing the exact date that global financial upheaval returns to American shores is not important; responsibly preparing for the worst is. I'm glad "it" hasn't happened yet, and while the banksters' further delaying of the inevitable means the bubbles will become all the larger, it also means our prepping will be all the better. More time is a good thing to a Main Streeter.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 01:56 | 5737917 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

The complaint about the Austrians is unjustified, nobody knows when, we just know it will happen. In essence the 'when' is irrelevant, the fact that it will happen is what's important, that is unless you feel the need to keep dancing while the music is playing, and that is where the foolishness lies

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 03:22 | 5738022 Jack Daniels Esq
Jack Daniels Esq's picture

Frogs give great French Revolution

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 08:54 | 5738347 Chipped ham
Chipped ham's picture

This from a self admitted know nothing. Who knows when anything will happen. Knowing that it will is infinitely better than hoping it cannot.

Who knew? Another Harvard academic genius.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 11:49 | 5739010 DonGenaro
DonGenaro's picture

It's hard to "tell you when" when the entire western economy is no longer subject to the market, but to the whims of a few psychopaths.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 14:25 | 5739666 Livermore Legend
Livermore Legend's picture

The Leadership of "HMC" is aware of My Views on these Matters, and as I have said "Why Lose" ?

It is only the IGNORANT and the ARROGANT who fail to understand much less KNOW that any "15 % Return" when the US Ten Year is @ Sub 2 % is a "Return" that will be PAID BACK back with SUBSTANTIAL INTEREST.

That FACT renders "WHEN" an irrelevant consideration.

The True "Master" teaches that:

"MARKETS DON'T BEAT PARTICIPANTS, THEY BEAT THEMSELVES".

Only the Truly Arrogant believe they are immune from this.

More than just words, Understanding AND Applying that requires a Depth of Knowledge and "Emotional Intelligence" far beyond what any ONE or ALL Minds at Harvard Put Together have.

I digested "The Five Foot Shelf" long ago, among many others over 41 years of Non-Stop studies, and it didn't cost me Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars, nor was it imbued with the countless biases of those who would "Teach" Me.

As in the Times of Colombus, Harvard Teaches and Believes the World of Yield is Flat.

As the "Endowment" begins to to melt away that will become Clear, as will many other "Extraordinary Popular Delusions".

I am as "Bullish" on America as one could be, backed up by "King Dollar" in 2008, and "America" in 2014.

However, being "Bullish" on the SPX 500 is NOT, Contrary to belief, and Self-Serving "Crony Capitalists", one in the same.

In fact a Bet that the SPX can be inflated without limit is actually a Bet AGAINST America, viz., That Hyperinflation Could or Would occur. It will NOT.

For those at Harvard and elsewhere who want a "WHEN" here it is:

"WHEN" the SPX 500 Trades at a SINGLE DIGIT PE, Post Financial Reckoning, throw "Long" with everything you have....

Have Left, I should say.....

 

 

 

 

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