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3 Slides That Will Challenge Everything You Think About Investing
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,
With just three slides and 5 minutes and 44 seconds, Tim Price breaks down everything that’s wrong with the markets… and with the conventional investing mentality that most investors cling to like a warm blanket.
This is an incredibly enlightening video, with some completely new insight.
Yes, we can look at the key metrics and see that markets are overvalued. Yes, we can look at central bank policy and see what’s fueling the movement behind these stocks and bonds. But that’s not what this is about.
Tim cuts to the root of the entire mainstream investment ethos and shows why it’s dead wrong. Or at a minimum, very high-risk.
To cap it off, he provides some actionable investment wisdom that anyone can take advantage of.
This is totally worth your time if you care at all about your savings and your financial education, even (or especially) if you are an experienced investor, as it will really challenge your thinking.
Our goal is simple: To help you achieve personal liberty and financial prosperity no matter what happens.
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maybe ... The Price is Wrong?
(and, of course, did not watch vid)
Feel free to not opine then
Mr Price?
Now we know how the big wig make money : insider trading (third slide)!!!!
first slide is very very scary folks
three slides that make me want my 5 minutes back
Yes, it's where we don't want you to win our stuff.
long gold / short JNJ?
Holy Fuck! talk about doubling down on a losing bet. jesus. just about everything EXCEPT GOLD soared today. lmao. go with a proven unperformer, it can't keep under performing for three straight years can it? it has to win sometime. /s
haha ... long gold?
that explains all my down votes.
i forced myself to watch a bit ... i'll stick with my initial response ...
Perhaps you should change your NIC to Bell End...
Funny that you could buy all of the gold market with 2 months of QE. The fact that someone hasn't seems odd. Almost, dare I say, fixed?
That would work great if you assume that the act of buying up all the gold would have no impact on the price of Gold.
He doesn't understand that gold is money.
Also assumes the current holder will sell it. Btw, where's the paper gold market cap?
That's right. It's impossible to buy all of the gold market. The globalists would like to control it all, and feed their plebs some crumbs. Gold has outlived every totalitarian that has ever existed, therefore I'm long gold.
Markets? What markets?
new vehicle "sales" by manufacturers include additions to dealer inventory
GM dealer inventory
december 31st ... 70 days of inventory
january 31st ... 94 days of inventory
Chrysler dealer inventory
december 31st ... 72 days of inventory
january 31st ... 101 days
Ford does not report this number
I drive by a dealership in a smalish town(20k pop) about once a month. This dealership sells Ford and Dodge Trucks and Jeeps and up to a few months ago had all there vehicles were parked on a paved lot, know they are overflowing into the sage brush field on two sides, must be twice as many as there were.
There is several acres of new ford trucks in West Houston sitting next to a hospital right by I-10. The dealership is several miles down the road.
Future mobile homes
would appreciate if you could link a source to this number, please
Fleet sales are always telling as well. Channel Stuffing.
Article should be re-named: 3 things you already know or disagree with. I'll save you some time.
1. You can own the entire gold market for a fraction of the value of a company like Facebook. Therefore, gold is a better buy than FB. Well, duh. If the author thinks this is a surprise to anyone here, then he obviously does not spend much time on ZH.
2. Trend-following "works." That depends on the time frame chosen (the article uses 20 years). If you look at rolling 10 year periods "growth" investing worked (i.e. beat value investing) from about 1990 on. Guess what happened in 2000?
3. The efficient market hypothesis in fallacious. Duh again. The slide he cites does not disprove EMH. By random chance some investors will have returns much higher than the market. Don't misunderstand me. I don't believe in EMH. But there is a much simpler way to disprove EMH: market bubbles. If EMH is "correct" then investors would never overpay for an asset.
I rated this article a 1.
The entire gold market, or the entire paper gold market? There is a very big difference and right now the price is set by the paper gold market.
NYSE Gold Miners' Index
Imagine someone with deep pockets actually bought up all the publicly traded miners. They'd only need half the value of FB to buy majority stakes! Then shut down production and let the chips fall where they may. How long before that player would own the entire world governments? All currencies and trading in fiat would probably go KABOOM in an instant. The system would collapse. Just the threat of such an option should get governments to comply with whatever the single owner of a majority of gold miners would request.
How about a middle Goldfinger!
Either someone with very deep pockets or a cartel of people with semi-deep pockets...or a whole bunch of us little plebes who finally said Facebook is a farce, fiat is for suckers, etc.
"Imagine someone with deep pockets actually bought up all the publicly traded miners."
What would prevent others from starting new gold mining companies? The previous discussion assumes that buying gold miners would stop other people/companies from mining gold.
And what percentage of the global gold output does the NYSE Gold Miner's Index represent?
For your point #3 wouldn't you need to have an actual market? Since we do not and, evidently, have not for a very long time point #3 is pointless.
thank you for saving me 5 minutes. i owe you a beer.
3 slides, 3 investment approaches, each one contradicting the others.
Used to spray paint them red signs.
wrong way go back
to wog go back
bit of an ethnic problem here..
The first slide is the best. The last slide is the worst. When you cherry pick your data you can prove anything.
Rule #1 about investing: don't scream the N word when a trade starts going in a way you didn't expect
What is the host wearing? Looks like Ernie from Sesame Street.
slide 1: the markets have been transformed into central planning tools
slide 2: you will not win unless you have insider information
slide 3: the rigging will continue until morale improves
http://www.rense.com/general3/coca.htm
Coca-Cola, The CIA, And
The Courts - Part 1
By Sherman H. Skolnick
http://www.skolnicksreport.com
8-13-00
.
"..A major player in The Coca-Cola Company has been Warren Buffet. If you are naive and believe in fairy tales, then you believe he made his great fortune through crafty operation starting with a department store in Omaha. To heckle him, some of his critics pronounce his name,French-style, phonetically Buffay. Buffet became a major owner of Coke stock and held a position on their Board of Directors. Few, if any, dare even whisper that Buffet's fortune is reportedly based on operating companies that are money laundries and propaganda horns for the American CIA. The list would have to include CIA adjuncts such as the Wells Fargo Bank, helping CIA's Pacific basin operations, and the CIA-apologist, The Washington Post Company. (Read, if you can find it, Deborah Davis' book, "Katherine the Great" about the Washington Post and the CIA." ...
.
anyway, some people never learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT_czrjnZOo
#46: Lenny Bloom returns - Conspiracy Queries with Alan Park
What makes you think the senator's son is well connected? Oh wait....Nevermind.
Yeah, blindman, my view is that the political economy is almost totally dominated by organized crime, quite thoroughly, on every level. (Against that there is almost nothing but its controlled opposition, and so that triumphant organized crime rolls on!)
In that context, everyone who is successful did so by playing ball, within the ball park of the various levels of organized crime that dominated the established systems. Those who did not play ball in that way were wiped out. The people who look "successful" necessarily did so by operating within the established systems of enforced frauds, and organized crime generally, which were the foundations of the whole civilization.
Metaphorically, that is like how the "music business" has the adjective music to qualify the noun business. It is NOT musical talent that matters, so much as playing ball within the context of the politics of the music business, that makes someone become a celebrity or not.
Similarly in the business of business. There are fractal patterns of the principles and methods of organized crime operating at every level. The history of the CIA, as well as the mass media, can be traced back to how, at the end of World War II, the people who were employed in the American war effort moved through the revolving doors back into the big corporations, such as the mass media. Wall street bankers and lawyers set up the CIA to promote the interests of the ruling classes, which included developing assets in the mass media.
People with careers in the mass media must necessarily play ball within the ball park of organized crime, in proportional degrees to which they have successful careers in that context. Similarly, I have always found, to the degree that I have investigated, that there looked like there must have been hidden connections between the CIA types, and the relative success of the emerging social technologies, from personal computers to the Internet.
E.g.:
http://medium.com/@NafeezAhmed/how-the-cia-made-google-e836451a959e
How the CIA made Google
Of course, I have no first-hand, inside knowledge about any of those things. But nevertheless, my conclusion is that there is practically nothing but organized crime and controlled opposition. Anyone who is "successful" is necessarily operating through those systems. The great paradox with that is that those people are necessarily the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who promote all the biggest bullies' bullshit social stories about how their "success" was not based on the ways that organized crime covertly operates.
There is an oblique way that some people are possibly mentored to be able to slip into those roles, and enabled to behave like that:
The are no schools of organized crime that are open to the public to enroll in! It seems quite hyper-complicated how people are learning how to become successful by playing ball in the ball parks made and maintained by the history of triumphant organized crime, where the political economy is actually based on enforcing frauds, BUT, everyone doing that must pretend that it not the case, as much as possible, in order for them to continue to be personally successful doing that!
Everything traces back to the Art of War, because War was the Father and King of our kind of civilization. The oldest book on the Art of War starts by saying success in war depends upon deceits, and ends by saying that spies are the most important soldiers. Economics actually developed inside of the history of warfare. However, the paradoxes that successful warfare was based on skillfully being deceitful and treacherous has entangled our culture to the point of runaway criminal insanities.
There is practically nothing about our society that is not based on organized crime, (& its controlled opposition.) That includes most of the charades that appear to be played out in the illusory world of "free market capitalism." Indeed, pretty well everything that is supposed to "free market capitalism" is actually nothing more than bullshit to drown the muppets in, while the political puppets strut around using that kind of bullshit language to discuss what is going on ...
In my view the only way that the human species might survive is IF we manage to go through some series of political miracles where enough people understand the overwhelming realities of organized crime and controlled opposition enough for there to emerge some genuine opposition that was consistent with organized crime, in ways whereby the hyper-complicated entanglements of deceits backed by destruction, and enforced frauds, could be somewhat unwound. However, at the present time, one expects that to get wound up, and wound up, tighter and tighter, into more psychotic knots, since, at the present time, people are proportionately successful to the degree that they have special inside tracks through the systems of organized crime that are controlling things.
E.g.: like how Warren Buffet's current continuing "success" depended upon the Big Banks Bailout, which were some of the most flabbergasting events of enforced frauds in recent times, which transformed lots of big companies from being in precarious positions of over-extended leverage, that should have been broken, to suddenly being saved and returned to being whole and prosperous, while the total population of taxpayers and future generations were forced deeper into debts in order to pay for that.
Although I have no first-hand, insider knowledge, I would not be surprised to discover that the more or less secret private life of Warren Buffet was extremely different and diametrically opposite to what his public persona appears to be. After all, that is the strange trick behind successful organized crime, which actually dominates everything, including its controlled opposition, that it enables greater success in proportion to how well one applies the principles and methods of organized crime, which demands the most skillful deceits be maintained between the private facts versus the public appearances.
I always wondered if Bill Gates and Microsoft was a CIA operation
Bill Gates was his mother's offspring aka Microsoft is an offspring of IBM
2
A good first step is to realize we are in a debt bubble of historic proportion. A collapse is inevitable, the only question is when. Cash will be the place to be when the bubble eventually bursts. But some don't know what a bubble actually is... so let's analyze this one.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
That third chart disproves nothing. I could also show you a inverse exponential function of all the people who have consistently been flipping heads vs how long they've been doing it for. If you start with 1MM people you will absolutely get someone who has flipped 50 heads in a row, and yet it says nothing about the likeliehood of him or her flipping heads on the next flip. The fact that this is getting airplay and that people accept what he is saying when only considering the outliers in a probability theory analsysi is absolute crap.
Double Post.
Fiat does not bid for gold, but rather gold bids for fiat.
So no, you could not buy all the gold in the world for paper.
Party pooper... can't someone at least try for once?
George Bush went straight from My Pet Goat to meet with Warren Buffett in Omaha on Tuesday afternoon, September 11, 2001.
I think top investment performance has more to do with "good" contacts and utter and complete moral bankruptcy.
(One slide / fifteen seconds if you're a slow reader)
I was not previously aware of that factoid, Salsipuedes, but it is interesting grist for the mill of my opinions that I posted above in reply to blindman's comment.
The real situation is more like covertly rigged casino games, that some people are initiated into, rather than some fair games, with level playing fields, in which a few are somehow so extraordinarily "successful."
Those who are the losers are just as much inside of there being various rigged games or otherwise tilted playing fields. It is certainly NOT anything like "free market capitalism" where enough people are playing fair games, in which some are both skillful and lucky enough to win and win ...
Although, IF everything was equal, a small, small number merely by luck could become fantastically successful, like a lottery winner, all of whose bets paid off, despite the astronomical odds, the REALITY certainly looks like utterly rigged games, where only a few insiders are able to take personal advantage of that, which requires them to have "good" contacts and utter and complete moral bankruptcy.
HOWEVER, IN MY VIEW WE NEED TO RADICALLY RETHINK OUR CONCEPTS REGARDING "MORALITY" AFTER IT BECOMES SO BLATANT THAT THERE IS ALMOST NOTHING BUT ORGANIZED CRIME AND CONTROLLED OPPOSITION.
The ways that we were taught to think, as presented in the public schools and mass media, ARE those which were promoted as the biggest bullies' bullshit, which assist the professional liars and immaculate hypocrites to continue to successfully operate the established systems of organized crime and controlled opposition.
Metaphorically speaking:
THERE GETS TO BE A POINT
WHERE WE SHOULD
GO THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS
OF THE BIZARRO MIRROR WORLD!
I have a real hard time following anybody who speaks with a Heavy British accent.. carry on.. I am sure you know what your doing.. I'll just head over that way... a Bit
What I take away from this is that hypothetically, I could have been outperforming the market if I had given all my billions of Dollars to one of the people mentioned on the last slide. Unfortunately I invested with Bernie Madoff and what little I could salvage was invested with Corzine. At least that's how it feels being on the wrong side of the trade and underperforming marketwise. My wife however thinks I'm a great performer and she doesn't even know the combination to the cold storage.
So there.
Umm, that trend-following is the most profitable for those that don't have the huge capital cushion to wait for a value play to work.
Yeah, pretty profound...
correct--and if you should try it with a little capital and believe the ruse that loss stops are good you will be whip sawed to death in a very short time.
I though Simon would provide something more substantive.
Oh, I'm sure he will, IF you sign up for Soveriegn Man Confidential, or what ever it's presently called.
Please feel free to pass on any realistic actionable tidbits he lets you in on.
Back to killin' snakes
Oh please, they didn’t change anything. What b.s! Bears have been wrong for seven years now.
Nothing matters but Fed money creation. The macro environment is perfect for stocks. Think about it. Total removal of risk by the Fed. The other blogger writes about the phony unemployment numbers. BFD. Higher is better! To Wall Street, those millions who will never work again, are just human garbage that got in the way of maximizing profits. Now they have been laid off and will all live off government permanent handouts, which is enabled by the Fed. Those millions take their handouts and buy cars with 10-year loans, and I-Phones and HDTVs! More profits for the oligarchs!
There will never be ‘austerity’. Obama says, “Spend more, deficits don’t matter!” And they don’t, with the Fed holding rates at zero. Try taking away entitlements, Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits, military retirements; watch what happens.
It would not be possible for the Fed models to be any more perfect. The masses in the markets see the bankers as omnipotent and putting money in their pockets without any need to work. Millionaires are now billionaires and any trickle-down is fine. The fools are content, they have the McMansions, SUVs and debt. They worry about ‘Dancing with The Stars’ and aren’t taking to the streets. ECB ready to roll out more QE, then the Fed, then the BOJ… Better have deep pockets if you are waiting for a crash.
soooo, you think fraud and manipulation of markets by an illegal entity is a good thing, k got it, thanks for your input...
The crash will happen because of math, not economics.
I can sum it up in 3 words...
FRAUDULENT DOUBLE STANDARDS
...and it did not take 5 minutes of your time.
waste....of....my.....TIME
this one was
Thank you, but those three slides did NOT change everything I think about investing.
Glad I decided to get a root canal instead reading
Lemme guess, they want to sell me something. Fear, loathing, and greed might just work.
why so many negative comments from new members?
What the fuck did I just watch? I think a paid that same dude $40 to plow my driveway last night but he spoke with a southern accent. Those are the three most important charts/slides to value investing!? Whaaa? Is it me or did I just take a crazy pill? While I'll agree with the Gold part, the other shit was just.. shit. Any asshole that has the audacity to mention Soros and Buffett as 'the best' without alluding to their ways is a douchebag. He'd be better off going with the southern accent and running for Congress in the good ol' US and A.
Well.
If that was the most important 5 minutes and 44 seconds of my life, neither my brain nor my wallet realize it yet.
Someone is going to have to explain to me why I should be edified or alarmed.
S-l-l-l -o-o-o -w-w-w-l-l-l-y-y-y.
If you don't insider trade then there is NO WAY you beat the market consistantly
Slide 2: The timeline of profits would be nice. Any leveraged fund long S&P500 for the last couple of years would have made a killing and be a systematic trendfollower.
That's some good shit right there.
Too bad I've had to cash out my Gold Miners the past 2 years to survive.
I'll miss the pop and take the baton up the keester like Wall Street likes it, the MF's.