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Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Entire Oil Collapse Is All About Crushing Russian Control Over Syria
While the markets are still debating whether the price of oil is more impacted by the excess pumping of crude here, or the lack of demand there, or if it is all just a mechanical squeeze by momentum-chasing HFT algos who also know to buy in the milliseconds before 2:30pm, we bring readers' attention back to what several months ago was debunked as a deep conspiracy theory.
Back then we wrote about a certain visit by John Kerry to Saudi Arabia, on September 11 of all days, to negotiate a secret deal with the now late King Abdullah so as to get a "green light" in order "to launch its airstrikes against ISIS, or rather, parts of Iraq and Syria. And, not surprising, it is once again Assad whose fate was the bargaining chip to get the Saudis on the US' side, because in order to launch the incursion into Syrian sovereign territory, it "took months of behind-the-scenes work by the U.S. and Arab leaders, who agreed on the need to cooperate against Islamic State, but not how or when. The process gave the Saudis leverage to extract a fresh U.S. commitment to beef up training for rebels fighting Mr. Assad, whose demise the Saudis still see as a top priority."
We concluded:
Said otherwise, the pound of flesh demanded by Saudi Arabia to "bless" US airstrikes and make them appear as an act of some coalition, is the removal of the Assad regime. Why? So that, as we also explained last year, the holdings of the great Qatar natural gas fields can finally make their way onward to Europe, which incidentally is also America's desire - what better way to punish Putin for his recent actions than by crushing the main leverage the Kremlin has over Europe?
Because at the end of the day it is all about energy. We made as much very clear one month later when in mid-October we said "If The Oil Plunge Continues, "Now May Be A Time To Panic" For US Shale Companies." The panic time has long since come, but only after we laid out the problem clearly enough for all to grasp:
... while we understand if Saudi Arabia is employing a dumping strategy to punish the Kremlin as per the "deal" with Obama's White House, very soon there will be a very vocal, very insolvent and very domestic shale community demanding answers from the Obama administration, as once again the "costs" meant to punish Russia end up crippling the only truly viable industry under the current presidency.
As a reminder, the last time Obama threatened Russia with "costs", he sent Europe into a triple-dip recession.
It would truly be the crowning achievement of Obama's career if, amazingly, he manages to bankrupt the US shale "miracle" next.
Of course, all of the above was purely in the realm of the conspiratorial, because the last thing the administration would admit is that the tradeoff to its bargain with Saudi Arabia to implement a (largely failed) foreign policy regarding ISIS (which has grown in size since the coalition campaign) was to put at risk the entire US shale miracle, a miracle which is evaporating in front of everyone's eyes. And all thanks to that "closest" of US allies in the middle east: Saudi Arabia.
It was conspiratorial, that is, until today, when thanks to the far less "tinfoil" NYT one more conspiracy theory becomes conspiracy fact, following a report that "Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices."
From the NYT:
Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices."
As we predicted, correctly, in September: it was all about Syria:
“If oil can serve to bring peace in Syria, I don’t see how Saudi Arabia would back away from trying to reach a deal,” a Saudi diplomat said. An array of diplomatic, intelligence and political officials from the United States and Middle East spoke on the condition of anonymity to adhere to protocols of diplomacy.
So what would it take for the price of oil to finally jump? Not much: Putin's announcement that Syria's leader Bashar is no longer a strategic ally of Russia.
Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.
...
"Russia has been one of the Syrian president’s most steadfast supporters, selling military equipment to the government for years to bolster Mr. Assad’s forces in their battle against rebel groups, including the Islamic State, and supplying everything from spare parts and specialty fuels to sniper training and helicopter maintenance."
Will Putin relent?
"Mr. Putin, however, has frequently demonstrated that he would rather accept economic hardship than buckle to outside pressures to change his policies. Sanctions imposed by the United States and European countries have not prompted Moscow to end its military involvement in Ukraine, and Mr. Putin has remained steadfast in his support for Mr. Assad, whom he sees as a bulwark in a region made increasingly volatile by Islamic extremism."
Actually that's not it: Syria, as we have been explaining for nearly two years is the critical transit zone of a proposed natural gas pipeline, originating in Qatar, and one which would terminate somewhere in central Europe. The same Qatar which was the "mystery sponsor of weapons and money to Syrian mercenary rebels" who eventually became ISIS. The same Qatar which is now directly funding ISIS. Of course, if Putin were to handover Syria to the Saudi princes (and to Qatar), he would effectively shoot himself in the foot by ending any leverage Gazprom has over Europe.
This too is very well known to Putin. For now he has shown that he has no intention of abdicating Syria, and losing critical leverage when it comes to being the provider of last resort of European gas:
The Saudis have offered economic enticements to Russian leaders in return for concessions on regional issues like Syria before, but never with oil prices so low. It is unclear what effect, if any, the discussions are having. While the United States would support initiatives to end Russian backing for Mr. Assad, any success by the Saudis to cut production and raise global oil prices could hurt many parts of the American economy.
After the meeting in Moscow in November between Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, and Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, Mr. Lavrov rejected the idea that international politics should play a role in setting oil prices.
“We see eye to eye with our Saudi colleagues in that we believe the oil market should be based on the balance of supply and demand,” Mr. Lavrov said, “and that it should be free of any attempts to influence it for political or geopolitical purposes.”
Which, in retrospect puts the Ukraine conflict, and the western isolation of Russia in a very simple spotlight - the whole point is to inflict as much pain as possible, so Putin has no choice but to hand over Syria.
Russia is feeling financial pain and diplomatic isolation because of international sanctions stemming from its incursion into Crimea and eastern Ukraine, American officials said. But Mr. Putin still wants to be viewed as a pivotal player in the Middle East. The Russians hosted a conference last week in Moscow between the Assad government and some of Syria’s opposition groups, though few analysts believe the talks will amount to much, especially since many of the opposition groups boycotted them. Some Russia experts expressed skepticism that Mr. Putin would be amenable to any deal that involved removing support for Mr. Assad.
Saudi Arabia’s leverage depends on how seriously Moscow views its declining oil revenues. “If they are hurting so bad that they need the oil deal right away, the Saudis are in a good position to make them pay a geopolitical price as well,” said F. Gregory Gause III, a Middle East specialist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service.
As for Assad, the Syrian president "has shown no inclination to step aside. He said in a recent interview with Foreign Affairs magazine that the true threat in Syria comes from the Islamic State and Qaeda-affiliated groups that, in his words, make up the “majority” of rebellion. American and Arab officials said that even if Russia were to abandon Mr. Assad, the Syrian president would still have his most generous benefactor, Iran. Iranian aid to the Syrian government has been one of the principal reasons that Mr. Assad has been able to hold power as other autocrats in the Middle East have been deposed.
And as a major oil producer, Iran would benefit if Saudi Arabia helped push up oil prices as part of a bargain with Russia.
“You are going to strengthen your enemy whether you like it or not, and the Iranians are not showing any flexibility here,” said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center who is close to the Saudi royal family.
But the military aid that Russia provides to Syria is different enough from what Damascus receives from Iran, its other major supplier, that if “Russia withdrew all military support, I don’t think the Syrian Army could function,” a senior Obama administration official said.
The conclusion:
A number of Arab nations have been pushing for the Saudis and Russians — polar extremes in their positions toward Mr. Assad — to find common ground on the matter as a step toward ending the carnage of Syria’s civil war, now almost four years old. But, as one Arab diplomat put it, “This decision is ultimately in Putin’s hands.”
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what the great oil collapse of 2014/2015 is all about. For those who want to know when to buy oil, the answer is simple: just after (or ideally before) Putin announces he will no longer support the Assad regime. If, that is, he ever does because that act will effectively destroy all leverage Putin may ever have over Europe, and in the process, also end - quite prematurely - his career.
Until then, every single HFT-induced spike in oil is one to be ultimately faded, because as the past few months have shown, it is the Saudis who set the price, and they will not take no for an answer, even if it means crippling the entire US shale, and energy, industry in the process.
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The tin-foil Fedora NEVER goes out of style.
"I am Charlie Tinfoilhat" - US Oil Workers
Fuck you Obummer!
It is the US who is flooding the oil market NOT Saudi Arabia!!
US production has risen from 5MM bopd to 9.3MM bopd whilst the Saudis have stayed flat.
Why is everyone looking at OPEC?? They haven't done ANYTHING AT ALL.
This article talks about the "shale miracle" but is somehow oblivious to the fact that it is the shale boom which has brought about its own demise via oversupply.
This whole oil narrative is bullshit. OPEC voted to sit on its hands and do nothing. The oil glut didn't come from OPEC it came from Eagle Ford and the Brakken. The numbers do not lie.
Why can't anybody see the glaringly obvious reason for the oil crash? Shale has crashed the supply/demand curve. NOT Saudi Arabia who have added zero extra production.
You're disrupting the whole narrative here ;-)
Yeah, a lot of that going around.
'Bout time.
It is all about the man that gave sanctuary to Edward Snowden.
That is when they decided Putin had to go no matter the cost.
.
That's trending too...
Yeah, and Snowden being Snowden asked Putin with a smirk if Russia does the same thing, on live TV. Takes balls Eddie, gotta give him that but I'll say this for Putin (who I distrust) Snowden is still alive and not in jail.
Fools Mate? ;-)
Eddie is not in jail because he has the goods on Puti. Well, he left the goods with Glenn and Laura, in the event anything untoward were to happen.
As for the oil "conspiracy", perhaps---just perhaps---it's all about shale (as Occident Mortal pointed out). This, another "conspiracy theory" remains locked under a tin-foil hat, where it belongs. Oh, and since I'm here, the effects of the Van Allen Belts are easily defeated by, of all things, aluminum shielding. Now there's a proper use for the stuff!
lol...I'm gonna disagree on the first (Snowden had no where else to run and Pootie likes having a pointed stick to jab with, so the set goes to Snowden) and agree with OM on the second as it really is domestic oil production not OPEC staying level and agree with the third, provided HARRP or chemtrails don't blow or melt the tin foil off ;-)
We've got Putin right where we want him [with a 96% Russian approval rating] and as collateral damage [as Rumsffield would say] millions of O&G workers and related sectors [and some unrelated sectors like restaurants near rig fields] now unemployed.
Forward !
The enemy of my frien's enemy is the enemy of my friend's friend's nephew's best bud mom's friend who may or may not be my friend until he friends me on Friendbook then he'll be my enemy until he's unfriended by the emeny of my enemy who might of might not be my friend's befriended friend. But he's an asshole, nonetheless.
Now that's who I talkin' about
As I told many people many times, put the whole Syria/Ukraine shows into one and only one context. Natural gas pipelines to Europe from the Gulf and Russia. Only then does it all fall into place.
the context is that there is a lot of blood being spilled by many interests in order to... careful, here it comes... service the european consumer of gas and oil
that's a service and supply economy red in tooth and claw, complete with state armies, volunteer armies funded by well-meaning zealots and mercenaries
TD: "Actually that's not it: Syria, as we have been explaining for nearly two years is the critical transit zone of a proposed natural gas pipeline, originating in Qatar, and one which would terminate somewhere in central Europe. The same Qatar which was the "mystery sponsor of weapons and money to Syrian mercenary rebels" who eventually became ISIS. The same Qatar which is now directly funding ISIS. Of course, if Putin were to handover Syria to the Saudi princes (and to Qatar), he would effectively shoot himself in the foot by ending any leverage Gazprom has over Europe. "
The Qatary sponsors of ISIS? They remind me how long the Irish Republican Army (IRA) were sponsored by well meaning Americans of Irish descent who donated money to a "just cause" of which they were only vaguely aware of it's details
The leverage Gazprom has over Europe? Well, isn't that swell how a huge Russian corporation has the full Russian state backing (it is, after all, a mostly state company) to try to corner the European Markets?
from which perspective can this be seen as a good thing? A libertarian one? An anarchic one? Don't kid yourself, even if we would have all states magically vanish, similar armed players would move their pawns for the same monopolistic profit motives
and in fact, money is already funding voluntarystic armies like the IS and mercenaries in previously unheard quantities
commercial interests don't need states. they can have imperial ambitions without any state support... but of course if it is there, they can co-opt it, gladly
this is the perfect example how the monopolist is the oligarch is the imperialist is the war monger is the enemy of mankind
this is the oldfashioned Great Game. a Clash of Empires, fuelled by monopolists and wannabe monopolists
ah, what the heck, give me an article about the evils of the EU and the ECB, quick, before I get distracted by reality
then killing people to get the pipeline through is good. i remeber a day when you chatted with your neighbors and came to a mututal understanding...
I have no clue what you are trying to say, here and in most of your comments. perhaps it's a mutual non-understanding
kerry is the guy you'd love to fight face to face but would shoot you in the back while you sleep without hesitation
..poor, poor Russia..
stuck with egg on their face and all the f’n energy and resources in the world.
.. and WTF?.. somebody claims they are accumulating Au.
The four reasons Russia won’t give up Syria, no matter what Obama does
You have no clue? Really? Ever get out and talk to your neighbors? Sounds to me like you might be the type of good neighbor that exists behind a good fence.
more often then not I have them all at my place, drinking my best wine and spirits, and forcing me to arbitrate in their squabbles. I hope it makes me one, it sure costs me a bundle! and I have an impression that you have yourself a similar expense account for a similar setup
Right, right. So you are at the "in control, grandiosity" stage of the illness. A severe case sadly.
You have a bunch of "yet's" to come before you see the light.
btw, for all EU citizens (but anyone can sign), here is the petition: http://stop-ttip.org/sign/ at http://stop-ttip.org
STOP TTIP
you sir have the facts and motives correct as no one else here has.
Who's on first???
And then there is Greece. Greece is in play, and its not about a few bonds, or interest payments.
I know Hollywood has done its patriotic best to raise our consciousness, with gad-awful movies like 300, where the emperor of Persia is depicted in transvestite burlesque. Despite these classy efforts to invoke well, the classics.....
The bankers have overplayed their hand. I think they believe their own propaganda. They are so filled with contempt for the Greeks, that they forget how long, and how many times, Greece has governed the whole Eastern Med.
The Greek navy is quite large, and everyone in the country has a boat, of necessity. The country has an much a claim on the resources under the eastern Med as Egypt, Turkey, Cyprus and Gaza. Not to mention Israel. An alliance of Russia, Syria, Persia and Greece changes the dynamic in a fundamental way. (They are all Orthodox.) Call it the Byzantine strategy.
You're absolutely incorrect and entirely short-sighted on Snowden, as is most of the "alternative" media. NSA whistleblowers out the fucking anus for ten goddamn years and the only one that gets any attention is a former CIA agent who tells us nothing we (at least those of us paying attention) didn't already know? Gimme a break.
Look, this is very simple. A wholesale domestic surveillance program serves two major purposes. One is, of course, intelligence gathering and analysis. The other is psychological warfare on the target populous. Have you figured it out yet? The latter ONLY works until AFTER you've told the mouth-breathing masses they live in a digital East Germany, and the only way to do it is to drag a character out on MSNBS/FAUX/MSMFUCKERY to inform them.
...or do you really believe that good 'ol Eddie just really, really has an affectation towards his broken, crooked pair of glasses that he wears to every interview and hasn't replaced in nearly two years now? He's an invented character. Whether or not the Russians know that is another question entirely, but I'd suspect they do, which raises more questions than it answers.
"It will be a society increasingly unlike any of its predecessors, a Technetronic
society that could easily become a Technetronic dictatorship characterized by
an information revolution, cybernetics, amusement focus with spectator
spectacles providing an opiate for increasingly purposeless masses....
It will soon be possible to assert almost continuous surveillance over every
citizen and to maintain up-to-date complete files, containing even the most
personal information about health or personal behavior of a citizen in addition
to the more customary data. These files will be subject to instantaneous
retrieval by the authorities."
Brzezinski
Prescient or what? This is something we can all understand and beats the shit out of reading Orwell.
Orwell's useful for understanding why. Brzzzzzzinski never reveals that underlying it all is an endless, unquenchable thirst for domination.
Would you care to clarify that for those of us who are semantically challenged, by which I mean "And your point is?"
You're right about having to drag him on TV to tell everyone. All Snowden did is tell my friends and family that I wasn't nuts. The weird part is that "everyone" didn't seem to give a shit about the psych warfare against them. How's that for "hope" and "change"?
The sad part is, a sizable percentage of people did give a shit about the psych warfare program (whether they identified it as such or not), only instead of overtly opposing it they responded exactly as it intended: https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2014/05/08/researchers-find-post-snowde...
Agreed - and I'm not saying this as an excuse or rationale for these acts - but goddamn WTF the vast majority of mouth breathers have worth spying on is zip nada nothing of any real use. They can track us, pull up our shit at will and find what exactly? That most 'mericans live a shitty existence?
This is not the “I have nothing to hide” thing, this is the “what a clusterfuck waste of time money and blood to track people not worth tracking”. It’s all reactive – not proactive.
Fuck you Langley, we could have done so much more with technology then track when I shit and some fat fucker falls off his scooter at Wallymart.
What you value isn't what they value, obviously. Maybe they want to know everything about everyone because they can, not because it makes sense or should make sense to you. "Mouth Breather".
Analytics of proles makes for more effective propaganda campaigns... afterall you're property of the religious non-profit United States of America Inc. of Delaware if you have an SSN.
Don't sit there and pretend you don't breathe from your mouth.
Goods on Putin? What could he possibly have that hasn't already been claimed against Putin?
That's pretty funny.
Goods on Putin seriously?? He fucks 20 year old gymnasts, so yeah baggage and goods and alot of jealously not that I'm jealous, you might be..
10 guys here hate screwing gymnasts... Battalion (B77) has arrived and their all English peter puffers..
Sanctions. (With our Saudi allies)
It kills Russia AND the US oil industry. A win-win for the tree hugging liberal agenda.
(sorry about all those lost US jobs, though)
Thank you.
What BS about the Saudis attacking shale oil.
The Saudis have always been America's desert bitches, and that will never change.
Well, they sure didn't help shale oil either...
To HELL with the shale, I like CLEAN water to drink.
Now lets import the Indian Car that runs on AIR for under 10K.
so unamerican-moar oil, moar oil baby...
air drive pickup, ha...
Oh. SHIT.
Snowden is a prime example of a sentient human being with scruples.
A 'Wild-card', they like to say.
A 'terrorist' (according to the SPLC).
IF he was in the custody of the CONUS, his CIA sex-change operation would have already been completed (shades of 'Chelsea' Bradley Manning, here).
It KNOW it's bad when I can get more authentic 'news' from RT than I can glean from the CONUS 'networks'. The BIG NEWS STORY on A.M. 'talk radio' is that Boston's mayor has decided to cancel the N.E. 'patriots' celebration parade in 'winning' the StuporBowl due to too much SNOW. I'm currently checking my balls for 'proper and legal inflation'.
"AND, THE MONKEY FLIPS THE SWITCH..." (Did you ever see the movie that this quote is from, nmewn?)
Either "The Right Stuff" or "Lost in Space"
Busch's fault, he's an oilman
Hotel California
Check in but you can't check out (???)
so s.a. are going to pump 10m/day at 50 instead of 8 at 80. hmmm fish are rotting, calling the fed and slush funding activities(printing moar).
or mic controlled protection is a BIG chip in the discussion with da king
all financed by the fed - ultimatly...
nothing suprises me anymoar.
evil shit going on. now it appears much moar brazen.
sad shit man, just sad ass shit...
It is all about the man that gave sanctuary to Edward Snowden.
That is when they decided Putin had to go no matter the cost.
Totally agree. That and the red faces handed to Obama, Kerry & the low life scum McCain over Syria was too much.
to supernovaborn: Snowden is not what he seems. It was the policies of the federal reserve that resulted in the malinvestments in shale fracturing ( just like housing) and this sets the stage for the eventual collapse of many companies and the asset grabs by the masters of the financial industry. There has been for quite some time an effort to destroy the challengers to the old money of the northeast. The assasination of Kennedy will eventually(though wrongly) be attributed to the oil families (read Barr McClellans work on LBJ and his involvement). Look at the overall picture; federal reserve policies continually promote malinvestment which is soon followed by hoovering up assets on the cheap. If you want to know why it is so hard to deal with this larger problem of the bankers you might want to consider who their coconspirators might be. The coconspirators might look like their enemies but are in league with them. One place to begin your search could include a book titled Usury in Chritendom by Michael Hoffman. The subtitle is The Mortal Sin That Was and Now is Not. By the way in 1964 one could vote for LBJ (a man of partial jewish descent (remember the liberty) or Barry Goldwater whose grandchild revealed grandads jewish ancestry on television quite some time back. JFK was not friendly with the federal reserve and did not wish to give Israel certain technology. Good luck in your research.
You lost me at the Kennedy assassination idiocy... though there were a couple of earlier opportunities in there.
Idiocy to you is not idiocy per se. you're a twat.
You're Oliver Stone, aren't you?
Dont you realize Obumer blames everyone but himself and with saudi arabia taking blame we can use them and obama can collapse this country kill assad and become the anti christ he was allways meant to be then the real show starts. What I can see happening while this game of world chess is being played is us pawns will feel all the pain. Cant you feel the pain
I hate that, when theres a good narrative and some jerk screw it up with numbers, facts and all that bullshit.
"Fracking the narrative !" http://i.4cdn.org/b/1422984895020.webm
Oh vey!
Another delightful article on ZH.
Yes, but Saudi Arabia isn't playing swing trader anymore. That's the point. And certainly there's more than one objective being furthered here, which is why oil's not going up in a meaningful way until some issues, like shale and Syria, are resolved.
No for once this is just good old economics at work.
Saudi Arabi is the biggest loser of low oil prices, they are forgoing over $300 billion of revenue per year. Do you really think they would give up that kind of money just to put pressure on Assad to step down?
Get a grip. They could buy the entire U.S. fifth fleet for less than 1/5th of that and give Nimitz class aircraft carriers to the Free Syrian Army.
Assad is a strategic headache but in the bid scheme of things nobody cares about Assad. Certainly not to tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Kerry was giving them the 300 bn chump change look at our debt and Obumer wants moar and moar debt pile it on us pawns give it to me
Who knew an eye doctor from London could be so much trouble?
What is life without a buggaboo?
Friends become enemies, Enemies become friends....
ugh - Assad is not a strategic headache.
Those fighting his government are.
You're clearly a fella who doesn't let ignorance gum up his talk hole, eh?
300 bln-just some roi for mic in place. follow the mic too...
money first ,violence backing. fucking with s.a. unleashes flying f's.
Then why are so many shale oil companies going bankrupt?
It's called malinvestment.
It's a textbook boom and bust.
from 10 trillion worldwide stimulation - ie. demand brought forth to git-er going. fucken right- got er goin to this end-dropping off fast, moar heroin, moar, moar muther fucker, moar, NOW...
Let's be fair here.
It's only malinvestment when you're losing money. :>
Occidental Mortal - Agree. And I'll add one thing. Investment in Bakken is one area our government did right for long-term energy independence.
The US Pols knew that engaging SA to back US agenda to flood the world with low priced oil would also bancrupt American Shale Oil companies. The owners of the US Pols were given notice and positioned themselves to be short these shares and bonds, and to then use the proceeds to buy up the Shale Oil infrastructure in anticipation of the rebound of oil prices after the attainment (or not) of geoploitical objectives (or not). You can bet your sweet bippy that Warren Buffet and others of his rank are quietly buying up these "bancrupt" orgs as "value plays". This is the way the big boys play "Redistribution" straight into their own back pockets.
so if everyone out of a job from ND to Texas and entering Bankruptcy are collateral damage - from Obama defacto drone strike on the oil business
why would anyone vote for a democrat?
son just got the call today. laid off. 515/week. 6 months life line...
Because those are red states. They don't go Democrat to begin with.
Check and mate!! Milestones
Yes, this article is bullshit. It leaves out the part about Putin having the nuclear option of demanding gold payment for gas. This is cointelpro in action. Using the NY Times as a source is a major red flag as well.
Occident Mortal
You wrote:
Shale has crashed the supply/demand curve.
Saudi Arabia added zero extra production.
Semi-corrected on the first. Pretty correct on the second.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-right-now/
The number don't lie- LOL, what world do you live in? What government supplied numbers can you point to that are trustworthy? I don't know of many. The USDA seems to be honest in their ag production numbers ... ... still thinking.
Is it possible that more then one factor has created the drop in oil. Increased supply from the U.S., drop in demand and OPEC standing pat.. Each factor has its own agenda.
OM -> Concur with your comment much more than I do with this article. Why politically would anyone in Wash DC hit the petro profits, that is political suicide. I would sooner believe the stupidity of Shale being way over-capitalized and thus way over producing the demand. Then rising dollar causing lower oil to USD to aggravate the issue.
This article summarizes this: to crush Putin I need to crush Standard Oil and Exxon....I think not.
did everyone suddenly forget about the war between the rockefellers and the rothschilds rite now??? you guys forgot that lil detail two tribe who follow the morning star are at war rite now as well! that must play a factor...
Shale may have crashed the supply bit, but demand has crashed at the same time.
It may multiply, rather than being additive.
The whole article is a pipedream.
Putins government wont give up Syria (the individuals in charge are irrelevant) and they wont give up TARTUS.
I can, and I totally agree. Tyler is too busy trying to sew together a tapestry of conspiracies these days that he's forgotten to think shit through and reality check it. Everyone's entitled to fuck-up now and again, but this oil conspiracy geopolitical grasping at straws is getting pretty epic.
Difficult to think when you're paranoid. There's a whole FSB contingent on ZH that's convinced the evil West is persecuting Putin's Russia.
Yeah, reality optional, but you're not supposed to think a certain leader is blowing a country's foot off for nothing. I'd like to think the FSB feel at home at zh because it's full of like-minded paranoids and RT readers who drink koolaide.
Yeah,look how close Putin put Russia's borders to all the US/NATO bases, right?
You can get your fill of your neocon/militarist p.o.v all over the news, pal. you think you have insight?
You've completely lost the plot, man.
Given the rather relevant fact that NATO countries border Russia then I'm hardly surprised there are NATO bases in those countries, given they are defending those borders.
You've plainly never had the benefit of a 'plot' to lose.
Dumb as a sack of rocks.
OM, I wouldn't buy into that "U.S. Energy Independent" bullshit too deep.
Are you familiar with the L.O.O.P. Terminal?
Have you ever seen the foreign Supertankers stacked up, waiting to offload?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Offshore_Oil_Port
"Why can't anybody see the glaringly obvious reason for the oil crash? Shale has crashed the supply/demand curve. NOT Saudi Arabia who have added zero extra production."
I've been under the impression that a small collective of Oligarchs, central bankers and governments controlled prices rather than supply and demand. Why is it that you never hear about a glut of commercial real estate for example? Mortgage backed securities? Government bonds? Student loan debt? Health care providers?
I am fairly certain that it is illegal for the US to export crude oil by it's own policies. Now refined gas and natural gas are not considered crude so unless we have magically increased our refinery infrastructure somehow I don't see the US as being the one flooding the markets with crude. Now that is not to say that the US has a hand in the pie.
Well look at you! That's not a very exceptional thing to say! Merica' good. Others bad. Get it!
For anyone who cares about IEA data.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/charts/
Robert Kagan couldn't have planned it better, oh wait...
P.S. FU Nuland
Eggackly, SMR ;)
How about the conspiracy of all in the know shorting oil to the nth degree and now winked at each other and get on the bandwagon?
Say how many millions for GS?
Per another smart zero hedge commenter: the only "theories" that are left are bigfoot and the loch ness monster. Every other "theory" has been proven as fact.
You forgot to mention shapeshifting alien Reptoids - long David Icke
The truth is beyond even the imaginations of the tinfoil hatters, and is nothing like any of the theories that have been endlessly passed around.
Someone finally wrote something (public) which scratches the surface last year... http://www.payvand.com/news/14/jun/1133.html
Then there is the minor issue of who was doing what else and where right before Qatar's 2005 moratorium, which might get to why Qatar imposed the moratorium and why they they have pursued the development strategy they have (in conjunction with the "possibility" laid out in the article).
When you can grasp the sheer number of pieces and implications that you or anyone else cannot see, and thus cannot assimilate (but which the massive machinery of State can) it is easier to understand how they fall into the trap of viewing themselves as your moral and intellectual superiors.
Yup.
I like prognostication as much as the next certified tinfoil hatter, but the difference is that I KNOW that I'm a blind man describing an elephant.
They don't call it the Deep State for nothing.
Knowledge is power.
That's why there is no real education in the 'education' system.
Secrets only help those keeping them, never those they are kept from.
Every Theory on ZeroHedge is FACT?
From the article and from a part that boasts of past theory accuracy:
Actually that's not it: Syria, as we have been explaining for nearly two years is the critical transit zone of a proposed natural gas pipeline, originating in Qatar, and one which would terminate somewhere in central Europe. The same Qatar which was the "mystery sponsor of weapons and money to Syrian mercenary rebels" who eventually became ISIS. The same Qatar which is now directly funding ISIS.
What the hell? ISIS funded by Qatar? Hundreds of daily posts and many articles making the claim that is is either US or Israel that is funding ISIS. So, despite offering up every kook nut of nonsense from the Tin Foil Hat brigade, now we are suppose to know that those fables of US funding of ISIS were just horse shit. Qatar. Qatar. Qatar. That is the source?
Actually Turkey is the critical transit zone. To quote myself from a few years ago-
Escobar conflates Washington and Doha. His time-line is consistent with when the Troglodytes of Foggy Bottom awoke and discovered that the sky was blue in July 2011. Both Turkey and Qatar have been in the Syrian sandbox longer. Turkey is a long-term winner in the pipeline business no matter how one draws the lines. The Qatar-Iran melodrama has more inside petro-ball than Pepe lets on to, from competing extraction rates and gas's disrespectful migration across man's arbitrary map boundaries to GTL versus pipeline distribution.
Consider this-
1) The Qatar-TURKEY Pipeline (this is the subject of so much conspiracy theory)
2) The Iran-Iraq-Syria-TURKEY Pipeline (which should be the subject of just as much tinfoil hattery, if the tinfoil hatters were actually literate and capable of reason, as Qatar has GTL facilities and Iran doesn't)
3) and now that Southstream is dead, Russia-TURKEY Pipeline is on...
Or for a more in depth version in the comments (if one can read esoteric)...
But yes -- QATAR. ...doing Langley's dirty work for in pursuit of its own strategic goals (in Libya, Egypt, Syria, et al).
That Gas-to-Liquids operation is one heck of a big deal. Evidently the process works as designed. However capital costs pretty high. I have read that they were making great returns, particularly since the gas had no local use or demand. Product is a swapout for gasoline so easier to ship than LNG. Just something else to put some supply pressure on the oil market and help to hold prices in check for crude.
It's already happening.
Yeah, I know it is running. Output from the one monster NG field is converted to 250,000 bpd of diesel and jet fuel with some other useful petrochemical products. One of these was scheduled for the US Gulf coast but project on hold. Shell is large enough to be able to actually make things happen if they want to do it. NG useage would be enough to move the needle a bit on NG prices.
The dude who perpetrated the loch ness monster scam confessed to it on his death bed a couple of years back, so you can scratch that one off the list...
Why the fuck does everyone think Saudi Arabia is flooding the oil market when Saudi production is broadly flat over the past 5 years, whereas American production has risen by 80%.
Is everyone over there completely fucking blind?
Would you like some Freedom Fries?
no, i want the main coarse- a fir burger...
A resinous gymnospermous tree or shrub bearing cones in a sesame bun? Thanks, but I'll take the fur burger...
Does America export any of the shale oil? That's a big no, to all of us blind people over here.....
The U.S. not importing as much as before is no different from output increases in the rest of the world. No?
Correct imho, if you don't mind 147.00 per bbl.
The 147 price was because of OPEC control of supply and their restraint of production. The US import demand was a large component of the outside of OPEC production shortage. Now much of US demand is being produced in US. Less demand for the OPEC and other suppliers to deliver into in the transport / export market. Russians increased supply, Iraq increased supply, Aussies increased supply - All non-OPEC. Price cracked on OPEC.
I don't believe the oil price has been influenced much if any by the lack of exports from US. It is lack of US imports that cracked OPEC.
Not to mention that it's not just US production that's up, it's up all over the place, just not in Saudi. Which just serves to make the US oil-attack conspiracy look even more absurd and dismal.
But Tyler apparently wants to sustain an abject narrative that Russian economy is being attacked by US economy.
And that looks like baseless incitement to tension and conflict at this point.
tyler didn't post it the poster did, um the posser did...
Since the NYT, being a 'primary dealer' of pro-TPTB status quo propaganda, never prints anything without first getting approval from Vichy DC, this story must be part of the effort to externalize the blame for the imminent collapse of the US tight oil fracking industry.
I agree stooge. The NYT is not a free agent or a media outlet. It is an official state propaganda organ, like the BBC. Nothing printed in the NYT is not coming out of the Washington DC zionist cabal.
The oil price drop must be seen in it's different influences. Weak world economy. Massive ramping of US production. Low cost producers mainting production in the face of weakening demand. Russia itself affects price by it's incesant pumping. Saudi can kill two birds with one stone. Hurt Russia, weaken Assad's supporters, and strike a blow for the Saudi market share. The first vicitms are as you said "US Tight Oil Fracking Industry".
“The global economy cannot grow “normally” (ever) again.”
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-affordable-oil
Jack Burton, just an aside, but have you seen this?
https://z5h64q92x9.net/tr-url/auto-ru-en.ru/colonelcassad.livejournal.co...
I would date the woman pictured in the article.
Crimean women are hot.
Wow... A real natural beauty. Miley Cyrus looks like a dog, compared to her. Did read the article. That old ethnic hate thing, rears its ugly head (again). Same as it every was.
She is a dog (Miley Cyrus).
jack is correct, and i'm done reading. nothing moar to add. period. all fucking manipulation of minds that wander aimless...
I'll second that vote
propaganda to counter the failing propaganda
.....and in other news there were no Afghan shipments of heroin delivered to Europe and North America via Nato operating bases and the money that was not received for these non existent shipments was not laundered through western banks and was not used to prop up a completely transparent financial market system.
There were also no reports of ongoing genocidal activities carried out by Israel, the US or its Nato subsidiaries in any parts of MENA or eastern European nations.
and weather there have been no reports of civilian airliner disappearing for the past 24 hours........
"For those who want to know when to buy oil, the answer is simple: just after (or ideally before) Putin announces he will no longer support the Assad regime."
It's not only in Putin's hands. Another outcome could be if/when Al-Assad is removed from power either from within his group of closest supporters (palais coup) or by a combination of ISIS, FSA, suicide bombers or coalition air strikes.
By the way, I still fail to see how you can build a pipeline from Qatar to Syria without having to go through Saudi Arabia, or it's close allies Bahrein and Kuwait. On the eastern side, you have either Saudi Arabia or Kuwait and Iraq to deal with. Going west to the Red Sea in order to connect to the Arab Pipeline in Aqaba, Jordan as suggested by ZH in May 2013 (see link) is not possible either without having to cut straight across Saudi Arabia. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/mystery-sponsor-weapons-and-mon...
The new trend is a rainbow fedora with a neckbeard.
Putin has proxy warriors too, if sheik alah poly razzmataz bin bungbanger has any security hole he might start plugging them.
You already rented the camel costume didn't you...
Chrome Fez.
"Facts" are for Muppets. There is no grand conspiracy or plan. These people are in it for one reason and one reason only......"what's in it for me". Rising production, falling demand, and a bunch of politicians trying to work and "angle" to squeeze out more leverage and control. They have no fuk'n clue what they are doing, don't assume they are the authority on anything. Control is an illusion, confirmed by the masses.
What was once said as joking
has become too literally true:
The world is an insane asylum, run by
the most criminally insane inmates!!!
And they're Liars and Killers too! With about a tenth of a gram of compassion to boot.
And they're Liars and Killers too! With about a tenth of a gram of compassion to boot.
absolutely, completely wrong.
First of all, Saudi Arabia did not "crush" Russia -- it will take a lot more pain over a much longer period of time to accomplish this -- "Mission NOT Accomplished." The Russians survived a winter with the Nazis at the edge of Moscow so some Saudi camelfuckers don't scare them. They can overcome any adversity.
Second, Saudi Arabia did not "crush" Assad or his links to Russia. Assad is in about the same position as he was last summer-fall when this whole oil price fiasco began.
Third, Saudi Arabia lost as much if not more revenue from lower oil prices as Russia. The cost to Saudi and Russia is in the hundreds of billions of foregone revenue. Is this really worth it to get rid of a pissant dictator like Assad? Saudi just needed to get a mercenary militaristic country like the US to get so incessed at Russia and their client Assad that they would do the job for free, courtesy of the US Government. Saudi Arabia is already half way there with the shit throwing between Obama and Putin.
The conspiracy doesn't add up.
"They can overcome any adversity"
That's what makes our Afghan efforts so funny.
Didn't we learn anything when they failed
You forgot to add that this Qatar pipeline through Syria shit sandwich is a galloping unbridled joke, it has no substance and is nowhere in sight and it now wouldn't even be geopolitically viable for at least another generation, so destabilized, sectarian and embittered is that whole intervening area.
But that theory was put up by peole like Escobar and adopted by zh as the very causation of the war in Syria!
GOBSHITE
But here's another Tyler, hopefully not The Tyler, trotting that vacuous crap out again for another invisible prance around the zh yard.
We used to have intelligent discussions of such matters around here (along with the regular math tests)...
But on the subject of the pipeline baffoonery- the current obstacles to Qatar building a pipeline through Syria are, more importantly, also obstacles to Iran building a pipeline through Syria, and as long as the status quo is maintained, Qatar can pump and export by ship, while Iran cannot even pump gas for export without significant investment (in addition to those Russian nuke plants) that is unlikely given Washington's current sanctions regime.
(This cute scene comes to mind, the Abu Nuwas version with the camel jockey and the flying carpet schlepper- not so cute.)
Two superb videos of Artem Grishanov: Draft In Ukraine and Mama, we are all insane
Just a reminder this war it's happening in central Europe in the year of 2014-2015 of our Lord Jesus Christ.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2029308.html
Funny to think that 50 years ago there were guys who weren't built like Arnold Schwartznegger in the US military.
That's right. These days half of them are built like doughnuts, from consuming.................................dohnuts.
Because the old and new House of Saud needs that pipeline from their freaking deserts or they are going to end up actually having to manufacture things besides Islamoterrorists to compose a serious GDP. Fuck the Saudis and US banksters, I hope that piece of shit in Syria survives just to fuck with Obama for two more years.
King Salman, it's what's for dinner.
Ignorant comment if you refer to Assad
media dumb you down much?