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Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Entire Oil Collapse Is All About Crushing Russian Control Over Syria
While the markets are still debating whether the price of oil is more impacted by the excess pumping of crude here, or the lack of demand there, or if it is all just a mechanical squeeze by momentum-chasing HFT algos who also know to buy in the milliseconds before 2:30pm, we bring readers' attention back to what several months ago was debunked as a deep conspiracy theory.
Back then we wrote about a certain visit by John Kerry to Saudi Arabia, on September 11 of all days, to negotiate a secret deal with the now late King Abdullah so as to get a "green light" in order "to launch its airstrikes against ISIS, or rather, parts of Iraq and Syria. And, not surprising, it is once again Assad whose fate was the bargaining chip to get the Saudis on the US' side, because in order to launch the incursion into Syrian sovereign territory, it "took months of behind-the-scenes work by the U.S. and Arab leaders, who agreed on the need to cooperate against Islamic State, but not how or when. The process gave the Saudis leverage to extract a fresh U.S. commitment to beef up training for rebels fighting Mr. Assad, whose demise the Saudis still see as a top priority."
We concluded:
Said otherwise, the pound of flesh demanded by Saudi Arabia to "bless" US airstrikes and make them appear as an act of some coalition, is the removal of the Assad regime. Why? So that, as we also explained last year, the holdings of the great Qatar natural gas fields can finally make their way onward to Europe, which incidentally is also America's desire - what better way to punish Putin for his recent actions than by crushing the main leverage the Kremlin has over Europe?
Because at the end of the day it is all about energy. We made as much very clear one month later when in mid-October we said "If The Oil Plunge Continues, "Now May Be A Time To Panic" For US Shale Companies." The panic time has long since come, but only after we laid out the problem clearly enough for all to grasp:
... while we understand if Saudi Arabia is employing a dumping strategy to punish the Kremlin as per the "deal" with Obama's White House, very soon there will be a very vocal, very insolvent and very domestic shale community demanding answers from the Obama administration, as once again the "costs" meant to punish Russia end up crippling the only truly viable industry under the current presidency.
As a reminder, the last time Obama threatened Russia with "costs", he sent Europe into a triple-dip recession.
It would truly be the crowning achievement of Obama's career if, amazingly, he manages to bankrupt the US shale "miracle" next.
Of course, all of the above was purely in the realm of the conspiratorial, because the last thing the administration would admit is that the tradeoff to its bargain with Saudi Arabia to implement a (largely failed) foreign policy regarding ISIS (which has grown in size since the coalition campaign) was to put at risk the entire US shale miracle, a miracle which is evaporating in front of everyone's eyes. And all thanks to that "closest" of US allies in the middle east: Saudi Arabia.
It was conspiratorial, that is, until today, when thanks to the far less "tinfoil" NYT one more conspiracy theory becomes conspiracy fact, following a report that "Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices."
From the NYT:
Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices."
As we predicted, correctly, in September: it was all about Syria:
“If oil can serve to bring peace in Syria, I don’t see how Saudi Arabia would back away from trying to reach a deal,” a Saudi diplomat said. An array of diplomatic, intelligence and political officials from the United States and Middle East spoke on the condition of anonymity to adhere to protocols of diplomacy.
So what would it take for the price of oil to finally jump? Not much: Putin's announcement that Syria's leader Bashar is no longer a strategic ally of Russia.
Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.
...
"Russia has been one of the Syrian president’s most steadfast supporters, selling military equipment to the government for years to bolster Mr. Assad’s forces in their battle against rebel groups, including the Islamic State, and supplying everything from spare parts and specialty fuels to sniper training and helicopter maintenance."
Will Putin relent?
"Mr. Putin, however, has frequently demonstrated that he would rather accept economic hardship than buckle to outside pressures to change his policies. Sanctions imposed by the United States and European countries have not prompted Moscow to end its military involvement in Ukraine, and Mr. Putin has remained steadfast in his support for Mr. Assad, whom he sees as a bulwark in a region made increasingly volatile by Islamic extremism."
Actually that's not it: Syria, as we have been explaining for nearly two years is the critical transit zone of a proposed natural gas pipeline, originating in Qatar, and one which would terminate somewhere in central Europe. The same Qatar which was the "mystery sponsor of weapons and money to Syrian mercenary rebels" who eventually became ISIS. The same Qatar which is now directly funding ISIS. Of course, if Putin were to handover Syria to the Saudi princes (and to Qatar), he would effectively shoot himself in the foot by ending any leverage Gazprom has over Europe.
This too is very well known to Putin. For now he has shown that he has no intention of abdicating Syria, and losing critical leverage when it comes to being the provider of last resort of European gas:
The Saudis have offered economic enticements to Russian leaders in return for concessions on regional issues like Syria before, but never with oil prices so low. It is unclear what effect, if any, the discussions are having. While the United States would support initiatives to end Russian backing for Mr. Assad, any success by the Saudis to cut production and raise global oil prices could hurt many parts of the American economy.
After the meeting in Moscow in November between Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, and Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, Mr. Lavrov rejected the idea that international politics should play a role in setting oil prices.
“We see eye to eye with our Saudi colleagues in that we believe the oil market should be based on the balance of supply and demand,” Mr. Lavrov said, “and that it should be free of any attempts to influence it for political or geopolitical purposes.”
Which, in retrospect puts the Ukraine conflict, and the western isolation of Russia in a very simple spotlight - the whole point is to inflict as much pain as possible, so Putin has no choice but to hand over Syria.
Russia is feeling financial pain and diplomatic isolation because of international sanctions stemming from its incursion into Crimea and eastern Ukraine, American officials said. But Mr. Putin still wants to be viewed as a pivotal player in the Middle East. The Russians hosted a conference last week in Moscow between the Assad government and some of Syria’s opposition groups, though few analysts believe the talks will amount to much, especially since many of the opposition groups boycotted them. Some Russia experts expressed skepticism that Mr. Putin would be amenable to any deal that involved removing support for Mr. Assad.
Saudi Arabia’s leverage depends on how seriously Moscow views its declining oil revenues. “If they are hurting so bad that they need the oil deal right away, the Saudis are in a good position to make them pay a geopolitical price as well,” said F. Gregory Gause III, a Middle East specialist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service.
As for Assad, the Syrian president "has shown no inclination to step aside. He said in a recent interview with Foreign Affairs magazine that the true threat in Syria comes from the Islamic State and Qaeda-affiliated groups that, in his words, make up the “majority” of rebellion. American and Arab officials said that even if Russia were to abandon Mr. Assad, the Syrian president would still have his most generous benefactor, Iran. Iranian aid to the Syrian government has been one of the principal reasons that Mr. Assad has been able to hold power as other autocrats in the Middle East have been deposed.
And as a major oil producer, Iran would benefit if Saudi Arabia helped push up oil prices as part of a bargain with Russia.
“You are going to strengthen your enemy whether you like it or not, and the Iranians are not showing any flexibility here,” said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center who is close to the Saudi royal family.
But the military aid that Russia provides to Syria is different enough from what Damascus receives from Iran, its other major supplier, that if “Russia withdrew all military support, I don’t think the Syrian Army could function,” a senior Obama administration official said.
The conclusion:
A number of Arab nations have been pushing for the Saudis and Russians — polar extremes in their positions toward Mr. Assad — to find common ground on the matter as a step toward ending the carnage of Syria’s civil war, now almost four years old. But, as one Arab diplomat put it, “This decision is ultimately in Putin’s hands.”
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what the great oil collapse of 2014/2015 is all about. For those who want to know when to buy oil, the answer is simple: just after (or ideally before) Putin announces he will no longer support the Assad regime. If, that is, he ever does because that act will effectively destroy all leverage Putin may ever have over Europe, and in the process, also end - quite prematurely - his career.
Until then, every single HFT-induced spike in oil is one to be ultimately faded, because as the past few months have shown, it is the Saudis who set the price, and they will not take no for an answer, even if it means crippling the entire US shale, and energy, industry in the process.
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And so many ZH'ERS here think oil is going up any day now, as if it's a free market. Shame on you! You should know there are no free markets by now.
Assad is the only game in town for re-stabilizing Syria, at this point.
It may be ugly, it may be objectionable, you may hate the guy, you may want to vomit at the prospect of that outcome, but it is the only solution that will re-stabilize a non-religious based, non-anti western (that's right, he is not anti-western, he is anti-Washington and anti-London, and I think we can all groak the reasons for that reasonable position) and non-failed state in Syria, five to ten years from now.
And consequently, the people who did start this, and who do want havoc and a weak failed state in Syria (Turkey, Saudis and Israel) are going to keep gunning to blame Assad for everything, and demand the US take him out, which will re-ignite a geostrategic conflict with Iran (and Russia), in the Gulf area, with probable region wide war this time.
When you run out of boogie-men just make them up. Then beat the fuck out of them just to prove to the world how bad they are.
Insanity folks, pure and simple.
Brought to you by the US administration, US CONgress, Brookings Institute and all those other warmongering "institutes" and NGOs. Tax dollars well spent. Right.
Back in the day, you could've worked as a Democrat strategist.
You mean like Michael Ledeen?
"Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business."
Ain't that the truth! There's a figurative dark alley out there, with the broken bodies of Egypt, Libya and many others, groaning in pain and blood pools on the asphalt. Hey, look over there, let's test the mettle of that quiet guy, with the Russian accent and see if we can get in his face and get huffy with him.
Is there any doubt about how that's going to turn out? Because when you combine bold AND stupid, you'll never know what you're going to get.
"Back in the day, you could've worked as a Democrat strategist."
(Brought to you by the RNC. Jeb 2016 is the goal, and we don't give a shit what we say to sway your vote. This message approved by John 'songbird' McCain and Sarah [Alayesku Pipeline Revenues] Palin [whose fat and ugly daughter isn't a dyke just because men don't find her attractive; her Mom wants to be 'gay-friendly' and 'corporate-friendly' at the same time!]. Why can't we all just 'get along'? Kosovo was as good as Grenada, and 'peace by strength' is as good as 'being prepared'! Let's all stand up now: Let's PRAISE the ideal of 'Peace of Jerusalem'! SHHHHHHHHHH....
Hey CD, completley off topic here, but I just discovered that you handled the possum thingy completely wrong!!!
Here is the correct way, about 30 seconds in and you are going to love it !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSbteUHn2Vo
My bad. It never occurred to me to either get the possum drunk or get drunk with the possum.....or just get drunk.
I am such a stupid idiot. :-)
They're not just making up bogeymen. There is a very a very rational method to their selection. But its genesis is over 30 years old. While the congress critters USSA may suck at 30-year plans, not all the players are so limited (if their "roadmap" gets a bit fuzzy beyond 5-years. There is greed involved and retribution, but those people are most certainly not insane - despite their being psychopaths.
urban redneck, i value and look forward to your insightful comments, however on this i have to question your premise. psychopaths by definition are insane. certainly psychopaths can reason, plan strategy and work a situation to their advantage, and while some shrinks suppose psychopaths cannot see long term i think it's obvious to most observing bankers a psychopath can readily fix their gain long term, however, being void of a aconscience renders them less than sane.
I think the outcome of the semantic debate depends on whether you are using a medical definition or a legal definition for the psychopath in question (and ironically psychopaths should be held accountable from a legal perspective, although the well connected highly functioning psychopaths rarely are in modern courts). However, my background in law is a lot stronger than in medicine, and when it comes to others' psychological problems generally - my panacea is "get over it" - which doesn't really work with a person who actually is insane.
This is all getting out of hand. ISIS burning that Jordanian fighter pilot alive and filming it will move much which should not be moved, and who is at fault?
I am looking at the CIA and DC for helping nurture the stuff that is happening. If Saddam were still in power, Iraq would be a lot better off and ISIS probably would not be.
Who knows when ISIS will come to these shores and what damage they will do? It doesn't take much to create massive carnage and disruption in a major populated area.
There's no such thing as ISIS, nitwit. If the CIA would stop funding, arming, training, supporting, and otherwise fomenting Middle Eastern terrorism, it would dry up and blow away in a few months.
czarangelus,
You must be the nitwit.
This authorative article clearly states that ISIS is funded by Qatar. Got that? Qatar is cearly funding ISIS, according to this article and several referenced ones, linked to demonstrate "how smart we were."
"authoritative article"
well I guess it did have an author
Then a nitwit like you should easily explain the years of Islamic wars prior to the CIA.
ISUS is already here courtesy of the Untited States State Department, they are waiting for the green light from your government to start shooting up malls.
Let em start shootin. There's no people in there to kill.
I'm looking at DC for killing millions, rather than paltry thousands, and doing it at a 80-90% civilian death rate.
I'm not much interested in the snuff film nonsense. Too many hundreds of thousands of parents have watched their children starve or die of easily curable diseases due to our civilized "economic sanctions" and helplessly screamed for help watching them bleed out in the dirt after being dismembered by our "civilized" bombs for me to really give a shit about the "uncivilized" melodrama of a professional soldier going up in flames.
Maybe we should put our mansion in order so we don't have cause to worry about all that "barbarism" coming to the "free world."
It's a strange thing that the concept of "blowback" is so difficult for 'mercans to understand. Even on the Hedge.
What might you do if it was your wedding parties getting droned? Your mothers collecting firewood getting blasted to fuck? Burning and beheading a few mercenaries would be the least of it, were it me and mine.
It is called the Ethic of Reciprocity or the Golden rule or Karma, what goes around comes around. Somehow it seems to hold true.
well said. Add to that economic control games that give you nothing to lose and you can make anyone into a "terrorist"
We are never informed what human damage that fighter pilot did before he was captured. He was not on a mission of peace that we know.
you actually write like the langley coffee boys write....
So how did that turn out?
The Obama neo-Con administration fucked up again.
The neo-cons are the administration. Obama is the front. As was Bush.
Now that statement F8C is one of the very few on here that is incontestably correct
So Obama is now a Neocon, You gotta love it. Why don't we just call Neocons -Marxist Progressives, which is what Obama really is, and be done with mislabeling.
I would love to argue with a genius here over Obama's Ideology VS a "Neocons" Ideology. Lets start with differences as it's a very short list.
The neocons let him do his little socialism thing because it distracts the sheep and keeps the pot stirred. But he has not done a thing about the CIA, the MIC, or the Banksters because he knows who runs things and he'd rather hang out with them than hang alone.
That Neocons "let him" do this "socialism thing" makes no sense to me. They let him? Is he not the President, is he ever responsible for anything? That's being a fanatic team player, dude. Are you saying that the neocons are not really socialists? Are they for less gov in your mind? Barry has no control? he sicced the IRS on his enemies. remember? I won't argue with you. This does however remind me that Darwin was corrrect and liberalism could be a genetic disorder.
you're a fucking inveterate idiot, Harbanger. All you need do is compare candidate Obama to 3rd and 4th term Bush Obama.
The Deep State runs the President, not the reverse.
And you're that ball of fluff that gets stuck in the suck pipe of a vacuum. You suck so bad it can't out countersuck you, and the whole thing ends up as a useless tedious whining noise and a lot of hot air.
Harbanger is right. All you dopey zio-obsessive wingnut trolls do is apply any stupid random label or remark to smear then insist it's valid and that it actually makes sense.
Neither you nor he understand that the neocon movement was mainly Zio Jews. A fact, not an opinion.
Eat a dick, dummy.
Gee, you don't say? Never heard that before! How can this be?!! Thank you counterdouche, you're just full of riviting novel useless information that I haven't heard several million times before.
The more you repeat something people already know and have heard ad-nauseum, the less people give a crap about what you have to say and the more they think you're a particularly dull and boring unbalanced complete brainless moron.
Did you really expect the opposite to be the case?
those American political labels were, are and will probably always be whacky
Neo-Liberal? please. it's all for the Greater Profit Of MegaCorps and their legions of Lobbyists, Lawyers and Tax Accountants
Neo-Conservative? sure. it's all for the Greater Profit Of The Military-Industrial-Complex and the Petro-Dollar-Complex
their convergence? Big Credit, the four MegaBanks, which might become two, so that each camp has one
you know what is "socialistic expenditure", American Style, since decades? the 30y state supported home mortgage. did anybody ever counted how much it costed?
another "socialist" institution? the Armed Forces, costing as much as all the others on this planet. and the worst thing about it is that they are using more and more mercenaries
Harbanger, as much as I am giving you even a +1 for your rant, you have been conditioned to label "socialist" or "liberal" whatever you don't like
the proper term for Neo-Liberal would be Big Biz Corporatist, and the proper term for Neo-Conservative would be Imperialist
Nixon was a Communist. He waged a pointless war overseas that sucked the life out of the domestic economy; he collectivized all kinds of power that had previously been held on state or local level into the hands of the federal government; he defaulted on America's debts and turned the currency into a total fiat; he was a borrow-and-spend liberal who did many, many other things that gave him away as being just to the right of Che Guevara.
And Reagan was even worse!
Nixon was many things that we can talk about, but he was not a commie. Crook is the label he didn't like. Barry is a Marxist.
You really thing he gives a shit enough to actually have a consistent philosophy he's trying to implement? that's adorable.
He's a true believer.
in himself
thinking either party or any candidate stands for anything but self promotion is the first mistake
Barry is an unabashed Marxist, always has been.
//////
Frank Marshall Davis?...really?...lol.
Fucking idiots trying to protect him, he's been co-opted to the "dark side"...lol...give me a fucking break. Power doesn't care if the banner is blue or RED.
Ummm...that war was started by fucking Eisenhower when Kennedy was still fucking Catholic schoolgirls his own age.
Nixon inherited Johnson's war, dummy....
You have a reasonable point: 'neo-con' is becoming as much of a smear word as 'fascist'. But if you define the neo-cons as people who wish to see or use the power of the U.S. government to support the state of Israel, then Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Douglas Feith were neo-cons in the Bush administration. Victoria Nuland, Daniel Shapiro, David Axelrod, Rahm Emanuel fit the bill in this administration. Robert Kagan, married to Nuland, was a policy advisor to the Republicans. Not the same people, but they have the same goals. Small club.
We are all busy people, but a review of 'They knew they were right' by Jacob Heilbrunn is worth the time, though it is obsolete at this point.
Actually I did read the book. It's not obsolete, the same battle that has now been funneled into totalitarian vs libertarian ideology.
Yes, you're right. It's not obsolete. It documents the history of the neo-cons, which isn't subject to shelf-life. It just isn't up to date with who the players are now, though.
“The machiavelian threefold game of the neoconservatives” by Laurent Guyénot
To realize their fantasies of world domination, the neocons resorted to a triple discourse, as Laurent Guyénot shows in this study, i.e. a cynical political philosophy developed by their mentor Leo Strauss for domestic consumption; a cold analysis of Israeli strategic interests for the benefit of the leaders in Tel Aviv, and a fear-mongering warning against imaginary dangers besetting U.S. public opinion.
I once wrote a Ronald Reagan "fan" fiction for those with a sick sense of humor
https://www.fanfiction.net/s/9426250/1/Cultist-chan-and-the-Re-re-re-re-...
It's time to nuke our good buddies in Riyad. And make sure we save one for the Rothschild's main compound, wherever that may be.
Smart bombs have GPS safety's, they are just kenetic thuds if it is not an approved location.
All electronics can be hacked . . . .
Hack on a bomba
Hack hack
Hack on a bomba
(apologies to FZ and "Billy & Ethel")
"Salman was a tree growing off of his shoulder..."
"Studebaker Hoch"
"Fuck, I'm gonna need a truss!"
On-board the Looking Glass 767 as General Fredrick "Fragg" Fredrickson reaches for the launch button with spatulate fingers he mutters; "What good are nukes if you can't use 'em".
The Saudimites are scared out of thier wits that if The U.S. doesn't have an aircraft carrier battle group in the gulf to protect them they will be out quicker that shit through a camel.
The U.S. politicians are worried about the Petrodollar status that has allowed Trillions of dolloars of money creation.
The Saudimites win all the way around. collapse the Russian economy, Punishing Russia for supporting Syria and clearing the way for the pipeline they want, and collapse the U.S. shale and deepwater oil plays, ensuring that they keep their market share and our military protection
It's looking pretty good for the Sauds right now, it has to be said.
But Salman's no spring chicken and neither is his successor. I believe when he goes there's no clear line of succession.
A 'heart attack' here, a bomb there... wiping out the half dozen most senior members of the Royal family would bring total chaos to Saudi Arabia.
Even with the best security on earth I'd think twice about pushing Putin too far.
And, dat aint all folks!
Looks like the natives are getting restless.
Crazy! Hundreds of Protesters Storm Ukraine President's Office In Kiev:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r58O0unKREQ
Extra Credit:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/3/house-votes-repeal-replac...
Comment was funny!
"Wish that would happen here (washington)"
"Can't be done over X-Box".
No "shit Sherlock"...
And how many times do you need to repeat that fact!
Why the hell would anybody like a Saudi Arabia that is 20 years past it's prime in "peak oil" do that to the finite resource they've made their "bread and butter" on?!!!
Simple? 1971... You can sell all the oil you want to your heart's content but it won't be sold in anything including Au other than $$$ or we'll "fuck you up"!
Think Saudi Arabia is ready to lift that "veil" after 44 years????...
Bet lots of deals are going down under the covers with the Russians and Chinese we both know and don't know about right about now!!!!
They may have no choice. They seriously turn on the CIA/Mosaad Neocon US -and the House of Saud is dead in a week. Heard about the classified 28 pages of the 911 report that Walter Jones and a hand full of Congressmen are trying to have released.? It almost certainly implicates tha Saudi government (who played a minor role in 911) while not even mentioning the Mossad (major player in the logistics of 911) The House of Saud are criminals who are part of "The family" -the International criminal Oligarchs and their organizations that control the US, Israel, the West and much of the world. They cannot and likely will not turn against the Family-certain death is the penalty [not just for the perpetrators, but their family and descendents. That's how they work.
They cannot and likely will not turn against the Family-certain death is the penalty [not just for the perpetrators, but their family and descendents. That's how they work.
All spot on Sid
By the way? Does anyone know where Prince Bandar is these days??? Right after this alleged meeting that took place at the end of 2013 that resulted in threats made good by those that were killed in the terrorist train bombings in Vologograd right before Russia was ready to host the Winter games that just happened to include a coup with Russia's neighbor at the same time!
Thierry Meysson was the first to report of Prince Bandar's disappearance, but that was in 2012 almost a year before he allegedly met with Putin. Nobody has seen him or knows exactly where he is other than a good bet that Syrian or Russian intelligence took his "ass" out and judging by the odd press releases of him showing up in both Europe and the U.S. they all have used old press photos since he went missing.
Langley and the State Department were knee deep in making the asymmetric moves in both Volgograd and Ukraine a reality and it still is surprising to me after the Chechen attacks on the train station inside Russia that Putin didn't go into the Ukrainian coup with both "fists" swinging...
In my opinion he should have and judging by the way the U.S. has put pressure on the EU leadership and the thousands of refugees and deaths that have resulted in Eastern Ukraine since the coup I believe the Russian Federation has many regrets that they did not take Kiev out completely when they should have!
Very odd indeed that nobody in Saudi intel wants to claim Bandar "Bush" as dead!
Such a loyal patron of the Bush Royalty in Houston he should have had a posthumous place of honor at Langley with the 41st pedophile-in-chief in that "Center for Intelligence" or at least a star next to Lee Harvey hangin on the "Wall"?!!!...
Still can't understand why "keeping him alive" is of value as the speculation of his death would I'm sure rouse the anger of members of the family?...
But my understanding is that he fell into disrepute with the "top brass" even within Al Mukhabarat Al A'amah who wanted him outed because he was too over the top!
If he still is alive maybe he's hiding out in New York with Hillary as a "shredder's apprentice"?...
If I could pick a running mate for Hillary, he'd be the one I'd pick!!!
I call bullshit. Saudi's don't have control over the global oil markets. If they decide to slow production, there is no guarantees that anyone else will. In order to make the same amount of profit, more oil needs to be pumped. Eventually the system self-corrects when enough of the production has been destroyed by falling prices, but I don't think they have the capability of catching a falling knife. This is all about the illusion of control, similar to our favorite central banks. That is exactly the point -- they "think" they have leverage. It's mostly an illusion.
they don't but the tbtf banks do ...
Not only that, but the insane misallocation of capital fed by the Fed's "liquidity" spigot driving shale oil is a favorite ZH whipping boy. Now they've become proper objects of our pity?
And if shale oil is a "miracle," what will we call the purification of entire aquifers polluted and survival in the earthquake zones activated by that "miracle"?
WTF.
The Saudis can either attempt to control volume or price. They cannot accomplish both.
There is no doubt that they could solve, for a while, the 2,000,000 bbl a day oversupply. That would raise prices, increasing supply from other producers.
Or they can maintain their current supply, which has actually dropped in the last couple of months, and accept the world market price for current world supply.
Putin will not abandon Assad, or any allies of Russia. Medvedev abandoned Gaddafi, and now Libya is destroyed and a cause of instability.
Libya. And have you followed the destruction of Syria. Israel flys bombing missions to the very outskirts of the capital. This article and most of the commentators claim Russia is giving it's full support to Syria. If this is Russian support then there is no hope for Syria or Iran.
You can claim it does not count because Putin did not have control but the pattern of Iraq1, Iraq2, Libya, Serbia, Syria is consistent. And how about Ukraine. Right next to Russia and Putin is afraid of even establishing a no fly zone. The news of new weapons to Ukraine hints of a coming push with upgraded weapons and air forces.
Putin pardoned one rich jew criminal and required that another rich jew only get house arrest for his crimes (which the person promptly ignored). Putin in an interview stated that by his pardon (instead of just commuting the sentence) the criminal was now eligable to run for and hold any political office. Putin serves the Russian elites just like those before him in recent history.
Oh, and Putin cancelled an agreement (CONTRACT) to sell modern missiles to Syria and Iran. Out of fear a NATO or Israel plane might be shot down. Syria does not even shoot at the Jordan or Israel planes that bomb it's military which I expect to be due to orders from Putin.
"Right next to Russia and Putin is afraid of even establishing a no fly zone."
You have valid points in your posting. However, there is no need for Russian Federation to establish a no fly zone over Novorussia. UAF airforce capabilities have been very limited so far and NAF have been taking care of it quite well. Just earlier today, they shot down 2 Ukrainian Su-25's. Btw, NAF has started their own mini-airforce. Ukrainian heavy artillery slaughtering DPR and LPR civilian population is the problem that could be resolved with a combination of Tu-22's and Su-24's. Needless to say, RF has many of these.
And it would need them.
I agree with you to a huge point. I truely wish Putin would make the orders to provide full military support to Syria. Send over air defense systems, aircrafts and ground equipment to Syria, while sending men to train Syrian troops and provide some support.
As for Iran, the deal for S-300 is apparently back on, or at least talk is apparently ongoing.
See, the thing to do is get seriously enmeshed with past dickwad tribal chieftains (now "monarchs & prezidents!") who would gladly cut your head off tomorrow and shit down your windpipe.
Smart Power!
/////
A dickwad tribal chieftain disagrees? ;-)
.
That's called Spreading Democracy®.
It's the US citizen 'american' way.
He must not yet have been promoted to the King class, aka We The People, aka the US citizen 'american' middle class.
I think I've been pretty clear on my feelings toward "democracy".
To an uninformed citizenry its the sentence of death.
Much, much worse than death.
But yeah, they're too stupid to notice.
...and the Department of Education isn't planning on making anyone educated.
But hey, if ignorance is bliss, maybe someday they'll be subsumed into the Department of Bliss.
One of the best books ever "The Tommorrow File" you have read it as well. He predicts 90% of what we are seeing now.. Good old NIckol'ass Flair.... Our .gov is made of of thousands of Angela berri's...
Putin will support Syria at all cost. The pipeline to Turkey is part of the play. US attempt to undermine Erdogan is a total failure. Putin will make nice with Greece and stop ME energy from reaching Europe.
so does this mean the oil will go lower for longer than people expect?
Good luck with that idea Saudi fucktards because I would think that the Chinese have figured they will be next in the firing line should they not "robustly" assist Russia to weather this shit storm of bullshit manipulation from the West. I sincerely doubt Russia, iran and China will fold because there's way too much is at stake - "together we stand, divided we fall". In comparison the US hegemon, as a true tyrant and enslaver of humanity has only force, brutality, intimidation, blackmail and subtifuge to protect its dominance from collapsing. Let's see what unfolds
Well said. China and Russia are more energy joined than they have ever been with the biggest pipelines and energy contracts in history. I doubt anything the US and Saudis cook up can knock down Russia, China and Iran. This is how empires fall, they end up with too few resources and too many enemies
China has already decided it wants friendly relations with the west (Strategic Partnership with Australia, and thus to defacto shared interests with a member of the US Alliance) as a signal that intends to remain aloof from the internal affairs of countries like Russia. China does not want to get into this, if it can set the diplomatic ground work to stay out of it and not cross the west. They know their limitations, which is a very good development for all concerned.
Russia and Iran can never give up Syria. They would be compromised.
Excellent well argued piece reminiscent of the ZH of old.
Nice to see that someone here still cares.
"I call bullshit. Saudi's don't have control over the global oil markets."
You are right. The rotthschilds do. If they want to make less moneygod because they already own it all, big deal. Just another distraction from the collapse and the next stage towards world war, an electronic tax and trace world monetary system, and moar country killing horsewash painted over the truth. Oh, and not to mention that 99% of the human race needs to be exterminated according the these lizard loonies.
Here's a question for the ZH crew.:
Knowing America has turned into the next nazi germany, and knowing they are in just about the same situation as the germans were just before the world war, and after 13 years of constant invasion of many other countries for their resources, and finally taking into consideration that in modern times there is the internet, what would be your suggestion(s) to stop this madness of the USA being set up to lose this next horrific world war?
Revolution.
Err, peaceful, of course. Cause that's the 'Mercan way.
CHECKMATE... and YOU LOSE.
-----
Yup, the notion that a "peaceful revolution" is even remotely possible is... what?
It is the reason the predators have won. Because they know... absolutely, positively know without any doubt whatsoever... that they totally win in 100% of all "peaceful revolution" scenarios.
Oh, and they lose if any significant portion of the population goes non-peaceful at them.
.
For some reason, Donbass comes to mind.
Oh, look, now the Ukrainian Nazi oligarchs want a referendum.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/normal-0-false-false-false-en-us-x-...
Russia won't collapse
the pipeline won't go thru
but the so called fake ISIS will help usher in the new age
The New Age will require a dictator
Maybe Obama, who knows.
I am thinking Obama, just a hunch
Obama couldn't beat himself out of a wet paper bag. The only problem is, his supposed opposition is even weaker than him.
The oligarchs will pick the next one, too. Every man has a price in D.C.
This is a true classic, a jewel on the tinfoil crown:
It was conspiratorial, that is, until today, when thanks to the far less "tinfoil" NYT one more conspiracy theory becomes conspiracy fact, following a report that "Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices."
Thanks for that ZH...never before in the anals of humankind has any rational blog quoted the NYT with such authority...bravo ZH.
God, you're dense.
Torpedo...hit....skull. I'z ain't so smawt no mo!
The 'anals of humankind' certainly make themselves heard.
This is exciting.
Yep, makes jerking off a diamondback rattlesnake look like just another Friday evening chore.
Jeebus. I feel so sheltered.
LOL...that's nuthin! Ever milked a cat?
And Barry's peeps thinks its because of Barry's brilliant economic stewardship. This country is so fucked.
So I'm looking at that Ketchup Bottle between two bathrobes, and I's think'n - Why do dem boyz all hold their pee-pee when day walk?
They're just pretending they got one.
I guess there really is "no business like show business".
Joe Turner: What does Operations care about a bunch of damn books? A book in Dutch. A book out of Venezuela. Mystery stories in Arabic.
Atwood: Wait!
Joe Turner: What the hell is so important about...
[He stops as he sees the connection]
Joe Turner: Oil fields. Oil. That's it, isn't it? This whole damn thing was about oil! Wasn't it? Wasn't it?
Atwood: Yes, it was.
Higgins: It's simple economics. Today it's oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. Maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?
Joe Turner: Ask them?
Higgins: Not now - then! Ask 'em when they're running out. Ask 'em when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask 'em when their engines stop. Ask 'em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won't want us to ask 'em. They'll just want us to get it for 'em!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Once a Russian commented about oil production.
He said, "why should we invest in oil production and extract so much oil to give it away to foreign countries!? The oil belong to our people, keeping it underground allows us use it ourselves over longer period. Moreover, our oil are in the middle of our country. Transporting it to a port and selling overseas is costly. Unless someone is willing to pay the higher price, we are not selling."
That Russian is a senior politician.
I can also tell you that Russian officials have closed down many fields and refused financing unless fully backed by foreign capital,
Conclusion - don't expect Russian to be desperate or budge in this oil war
So this is why ISIS was allowed to double it's territory in Syria..
I am not surprised
Wait 'til they start ad-libing...
Ok, here's the deal.
One half of ZH World thinks ISIS is a product of the CIA, fine. The other half thinks they are a bunch of murderous jihadi nutcases.
I'm sorta thinkin their days as anything are numbered ;-)
Doublemint. You're talking about Doublemint. I'm partial to twins tho.
But, you may well be right. Or, they may go off the reservation, if they haven't already. They're a slick lot if ZH et al is to be believed, so I'm keeping my gold in da safe, that is, no bets.
Once, 'they' decide ISIS is no longer needed, ISIS will just leave the news and all will be forgotten. If it's no longer on TV, it doesn't exist.
What about a bunch of murderous jihadi nutcases, who just happen to have been armed by the west via the CIA, but who take no orders from them and will happily kill every 'merkin captured.
But who for some odd reason NEVER seem to attack Israel, and don't attack Jordan, nor Turkey, but who do tend to attack Hezbollah, Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians and now Egyptians as well.
Curious, no?
the fuel was there. the kindling was stacked for years. the question about the spark... imo academic
a lot of conspiracies are about who shouted "fire!" in the theater without proper fire exits, or which straw broke the camel's back
the proper questions about why there were no fire exits and why the camel was overloaded in the first place get under the bus, this way
These oil price spikes show that the Vampire Squids are having trouible holding it down. The time to buy oil is slowly but steadily as the price is being held down artificially, which is why they are having trouble holding it down.
Here's what the US has to lose over collapsing oil prices:
- Dollar hegemony
- Collapse of the domestic oil industry leading to this:
- Collapse of the US economy
And the Sauds:
- Collapse of their welfare state
- Collapse of their economy
- Assplosions all over the country "for Allah"
Shove you full retard conspiracy theories out your azz.
Russia has this to lose:
- Lost welfare revenue for dooshbags that suffered relentlessly during the ENTIRE 20th century
Again...TINFOIL HAT = US + SAUD = Russia oil putsch
Where this breaks down for me is that Qatar could easily run a pipeline through Saudi Arabia/Jordan/Israel or through Iraq/Turkey. Syria does not provide any better route. Doesn't make sense.
Because it's not just about Pipelinestan. It's also Lebensraum. And water.
and other shiite...
Hard to by-pass Syria for a land line to Europe. And I don't think they want to build it on Shiite territory. Has to be close to the Sea as well so USN can reach.
I'm gonna have to channel Bobby Fischer.
Is this the Caro-Kann or Kings Indian?
Is this one of those 'no shit' moments?
That's a good reason to me - anything that pushes that wacko putin's sphere of influence back into only his own coUntry's gangster regime is ABSOLUTELY GOOD.
Only delusional people can believe that.
ONLY DELUSIONAL IDIOTS CAN DISAGREE.
Great plan Einsteins!
Russians are the world's #1 experts at suffering. It'll take a whole lot more than temporary hardship to roll over them.
DING! You have now been labeled an "independent thinker" and will be downvoted accordingly. The Ruskies don't give a shit if oil goes to $20...why? The Russian aristocracy will still be wealthy and the shit peons that they have abused for 100 years will still be poor...oops...poorER...MO POOR.
The US, EU and Saud...another story altogether!
I remember that many years ago, maybe 2000-2001 10% of the families in Moscow were dollar millionaires because of their real estate ownership. The prices may have fallen a bit but still the wealth in the large russian cities is not to be underestimated. Russians pay 15% income tax, no property tax, no capital gains tax. Many pictures in the media about Russia are quite inaccurate and most people have never visited and therefore little knowledge. The same is true for China. While in the US and Europe we get poorer every day, accumulate more debt and indulge in artificially blown up GDP data real wealth is created elsewhere.
Let me start a new rumor then or just back you up with an anecdote:
- Wikipedia states under denazification only 10% of the population was Nazi, if that is valid, then both current Russia, current China & Nazis in WWII have less inequality than the USA Today
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification
Thank goodness governments today are so honest & democratic, Social Market Economy is working so well in Germany, France, Britain, and Greece.
S/
Too much verbiage here, and not one word on the Russian currency: Today's ruble rise says any conspiracy to crush Russia - isn't working, or have I missed something:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=usdrub&insttype=Currency&freq=1&show=
My momma always said, "If you're gonna go down. Go down with the best of them." I don't see Putin going down though. I see him taking Ukraine and choking out Europe. "No gas for you!" style
getting ugly enuf for your words to come true.
Interesting! If correct it would mean that Russia decides over the future of the US shale, canadian tar sand and UK / norwegian north sea oil industry. Not very comforting. I suggest to ponder about the assumptions, particularly regarding the sanctions. Russia has low production cost and no immediate need to tap more expensive ressources. It remains to be seen to what extent the sanctions really bite Russia and it will take at least another year to find out. At the moment the picture portrayed in the media is one - sided and hinges largely on the development of shares prices but I think oter than in the US the oligarchs in Russia are not so concerned about temporarily reduced share prices. It is not very often mentioned that the current exchange rates also offer advantages to the Russian industry, particularly for all energy companies which have income in foreign currency and expenses in Roubles. Russia is likely to be more resilient than presently assumed. A collapse of the Assad administration would create a vacuum that is instantly filled by ISIS. In order to build a pipeline through ISIS country it would be mandatory to accept their sovereignity and to close contracts with them. This appears to be a hugh price for energy independence from Russia and I am looking forward to see the political muppets in US and Europe endorsing that. All the theories about geopolitics and energy sometimes seem to forget that oil and gas are scarce and one day or the other at least all inexpensive reserves will be consumed. The Russians and the Quataries will therefore sell all their oil and gas sooner or later. It is just a question who comes first. In the interim the pensions funds in the west will be hit hard by the declining shares prices and dividends in the energy sector and it will take a lot of massaging to produce any GDP growth rates despite the latest developments in the energy sector.
Venezuela, Iran get boinked too. UK, Norway, Mexico and Canada are temporary collateral damage. And isn't the bankster money made on the huge price swings? Down and back from >100 to <50 in ~ a year would be a once in a lifetime event for the insider. And it takes out the frackers and gives the Saudis control over price again. Saudis are showing some smarts.
Venezuela, Iran get boinked too. UK, Norway, Mexico and Canada are temporary collateral damage. And isn't the bankster money made on the huge price swings? Down and back from >100 to <50 in ~ a year would be a once in a lifetime event for the insider. And it takes out the frackers and gives the Saudis control over price again. Saudis are showing some smarts.
all well and good til smoeone drops a turd in the punch bowl when you can't dig a cat hole cause the ground is froze you crap on a hanky and let it freeze then pack it out in a zip lock. just don't forget which bag is the candy bar and which the dookie
Geez this things got more plot twists that a Latin soap opera. What ever the Saudi's plan is it ain't comng cheap, and to throw away all that cash for some quasi effective grand scheme at anything seems out of character to me. There must be some desperation going on behind the scenes in the harems over there we don't know about. Maybe a couple of the wives got together and are running things. You know how zany them crazy Saudi women can get.
Next they'll be wanting to drive . OH HELL NO!
At nsome point the Saudi people will get restless, and go over to ISIS. That is when this game fails.
It probably would not take a very large number of Saudis to become murdering ISIS to take down the passel of princes. Just the coordination of several thousand would pave the way for the butchery to come. Rich folks fly away, no command structure for military. All over but the head chopping.
I don't see Mr. Putin throwing his long time pal Al-Assad under the bus.
I'd hate to think all this sink Putin stuff is the US attempt to extract payback for Snowden. If so.....real great plan you fucking morons.
That was idea with Kiev riots, change of democratic elected goverment etc. to punish Putin for Snowden and show how is weak. But smooth take over of Crimea change all plans in that regard.
and all the time the NSA,CIA, and Obuttbrain were exacting their revenge on Putin, Putin began planning the independence of Crimea when he saw Yanukovych made no attempt to thwart the coup.
I have an opinion as why Yanukovych did not attempt to stop the coup. You probably have one too.
But now Crimea, and the strategic dirt it sits on, are in the Russian camp and the 'widows of NATO are loud in their wail." Washington too.
No problem, Russia will have a lifeline.
"Russian nationalists suggest enormous lawsuit against Germany over WWII damages"
http://rt.com/politics/228851-russia-germany-war-compensation/
"A lawmaker representing the populist LDPR nationalist party wants to calculate all damages inflicted by Nazi Germany on Russia during World War II, in order to slap Berlin with a lawsuit that could amount to €4 trillion.
...
The MP quoted the verdict of the Soviet government commission that evaluated the damages from WWII as 30 percent of the national wealth. In particular, the Nazi aggressors destroyed 1,710 Soviet cities and towns, 70,000 villages, 32,000 factories and 100,000 collective farms.
In addition to huge material losses, the USSR lost a tremendous amount of people to the war, Degtyaryov noted. “What we have now is that Germany repaid compensations over 6 million victims of the Holocaust but ignored the deaths of 27 million Soviet people, over 16 million of which were civilians,” he said."
Goes along with the past post about the "annexiation" or east Germany.