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Is The Bank Of Japan Losing Control? JGB Yields Surge Most Since 2003

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: You know it's getting bad when Abe and Kuroda double-team the confidence-inspiring headlines.

  • *KURODA: BOJ'S BOND PURCHASES HAVEN'T FACED PROBLEMS
  • *KURODA: DON'T THINK JGB LIQUIDITY HAS PARTICULARLY FALLEN
  • *KURODA: BOJ EASING ISN'T FOR FINANCING GOVERNMENT DEBT
  • *ABE: MONETARY EASING METHODS ARE UP TO BANK OF JAPAN

Japanese government bond yields continue to surge. The last 7 days have seen yields on long-dated JGBs soar at the fastest pace since 2003 - accelerating after the most recent (weakest bid-to-cover in 19 months) bond auction. Following the 18th month in a row of negative YoY real cash earnings (1 short of the record 19 months in a row from 2008/9), Japanese bond yields are surging to their highest since early December.

 

18th month in a row of negative YoY real cash earnings...

 

Sparked an acceleration in the JGB yield surge... post QECB

 

The biggest 7-day surge since 2003... (click image for huge legible version)

 

Is The BoJ losing control?

 

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Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:34 | 5741629 VATICANT
VATICANT's picture

Finally!?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:23 | 5741789 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Nope. Not a chance. This turd has time yet to swirl...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:45 | 5741865 gimme-gimme-gimme
gimme-gimme-gimme's picture

It's a trick to squeeze some stupid speculators. It's probably happening on 0% volume too since that chart or any reference to volume is suspiciously absent..

BOJ calls it the reverse Kamikaze.

ZH calls it a revenue generating post from their Goldman Sach ad sponsor. :)

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 00:24 | 5741992 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

Yields doubled. This is huge. If anyone still traded JGBs, that is...

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 04:13 | 5742275 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

serious question: if Japan is buying 100% of its own bond issuance , how do the yeilds rise? is it from private entities who purchased in the past prior to abenomics who are dumping theirs before maturity?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 05:30 | 5742359 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Aren't they buying 110% of new issuance? The yields must be changing on a shrinking secondary market. What doesn't make sense is how any of this is happening without any reported volume. You'd have to be getting a little nervous at Japan Post Bank if you held JPY178.9TN of that toilet paper, wouldn't you?

However, if they do find a buyer (BoJ) its probably going to drive US, UK and German bonds/stock markets up; anything they can liquidate that shit for will look like a flight to safety for another few months/years.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:26 | 5742394 new game
new game's picture

if they want inflation buy 80 percent- a central planners dream-inflation. inflate it to zero value-mission accomplished. society decimated, no nuke needed...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:34 | 5741631 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I need moar fiat power Scotty. She's breaking up, she's breaki.............

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:33 | 5741633 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

A central bank losing control?  How can this be?  

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:40 | 5741635 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

.393% for ten year "money". Lol..... this is our future bitchez!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 08:36 | 5742540 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm just glad the market recovered off of the recent even lower yields.  We can now be confident the market is accurately pricing in the risks.

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:37 | 5741644 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

The show this year is so confusing and the I dont understand why the sheeple cant see whats up that this is not normal and it appears on minute that the shtf then next records will be set so wonder what tomorrow brings?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:51 | 5741700 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"They" told us lower oil prices were good. Now "they" tell us higher oil prices are good. WTF!  I keep saying It's all Bullshit!!!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:27 | 5742395 new game
new game's picture

correction, lacking proper adjective "it's all fucking bullshit"...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:10 | 5741763 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

I talked with a woman yesterday who was genuinely confused when she went to fill up her car at the gas station (I guess someone else usually fills the car).  She expected the cost to be twice what it was, and so she kept topping off the tank until it spilled over.  She had zero clue about what was going on with gas prices, oil prices, or any other prices for that matter.  There are some people who are genuinely clueless about the reality of the economy around them.  In her case, she has a husband who must make some serious money, because she is not hurting.  This is the level of ignorance among many in the population.  They truly don't see it.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:47 | 5741900 gimme-gimme-gimme
gimme-gimme-gimme's picture

For someone that stupid the following explanation would probably make more sense:

More likely she only makes the minimum payments on her credit cards.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:24 | 5741672 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I have information that will blow the presidency of Argentina WIDE OPEN!

You see, 5 years ago.....

Hold on.

There's someone at the door. I'll be right back.......................

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:41 | 5741872 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

LOL

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 08:05 | 5742499 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Dead canarys never sing.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:49 | 5741692 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

I look for the Japanese market to completely crash first. They have a head start on all the insane money printing. Then, not far behind is Europe. You can already large cracks in their system (Swiss, Greece and QE all in one month). For a very short time foreign investors will be investing dollar assets and our markets. Soon they will realize that these aren't safe either and the US system will go too.

Listen to the warnings. We are getting closer! It could be this year or in five, but it seems things are starting to accelerate faster and faster. I recommend buying silver. It's such a bargain at today's prices. It has been money for thousands of years and will be money long after these paper currencies are dead and forgotten.

One way to get your friends and family stacking silver is by giving them a candle with a silver coin prize: (www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers). They will be curious what their coin is worth and discover the amazing value of silver. For instance, one silver dime is worth 12 times face value (in melt value alone)

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:43 | 5741886 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Yeah, the time that elapses between each successive "crisises" is getting get less and less.

While the frequency of "crisises" is increasing.

If there is a future the textbooks will show that what we're going through now is the precursor to the collapse. 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 00:06 | 5741954 forwardho
forwardho's picture

We are already 6 years into the collapse.

Just find and ask one of the 65 million who no longer work, yet are not considered unemployed. For them the poop has already run through the fan.

The collapse (liquidity crunch) is well under way. It is a process, the nationalization of the banks is just a later stage.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 02:37 | 5742179 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Pretty sure it's closer to 90 million working age adults.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 00:14 | 5741969 ClowardPiven2016
ClowardPiven2016's picture

Sorry Kevin...apparently no one likes your candles

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:29 | 5742400 new game
new game's picture

it is trending up from low 15's...

hi ho hi ho

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:00 | 5741721 PiratePiggy
PiratePiggy's picture

Those Weimar Marks and Zim Dollars were great for starting fires to keep warm and wiping your ass respectively.

 

What  good will be the Fed's digital dollars?  Will we still be able to buy digital accessories and digital clothes for our kid's digital games?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 04:21 | 5742279 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

I know - how can you wipe your nether-region's 1's and 2's with 0's and 1's ?? IT DOESNT ADD UP I TELLZYA!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:11 | 5741765 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

less nirpy than usual - lulz

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:17 | 5741783 Osmium
Osmium's picture

If Japan has held this shit together for 20 years, that says that the US has a LONG way to go before it blows up.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:27 | 5741805 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

That should be true, except for the fact that US is not Japan...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:35 | 5741836 Osmium
Osmium's picture

That much is true.  But does that mean the US has more time or less time?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 01:38 | 5742120 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Japan is a historical anomaly.  Most countries hit hyperinflation looooooooong before they get to where Japan's public debt to tax revenue ratio is. 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:23 | 5742967 El Vaquero
Wed, 02/04/2015 - 08:22 | 5742519 wide mouth kid
wide mouth kid's picture

less time.

it is a cultural thing- the Japanese put up with situations most of us wouldn't stand for. i'm not saying that is right or wrong, but that's the way it is. 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:50 | 5741910 gimme-gimme-gimme
gimme-gimme-gimme's picture

It took em about 20yrs to blow through all that trade surplus money. Me thinks the US will abruptly loose "reserve currency" status overnight and that will be that.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:56 | 5741919 forwardho
forwardho's picture

The logic used in your statement is flawed.

Japan was able to extend for 20 yrs because the US was there to backstop them.  The US has no backstop.

Also, beware of any chart that draws conclusions from data pre-2008. TARP, Stimulus, QE1-3 changed the rules in  ways never known before.

We are in compleatly uncharted waters.

 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:34 | 5742402 new game
new game's picture

no backstop-in fact everybody else would like to ussa topple flat on our face-face plant with boot to back of head with a grind. see, they all hate us for our millitary and can't do much til they can and then they will, just the way humans are. i know cause i've seen the movie...ha.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 23:31 | 5741826 Stfr
Stfr's picture

Everyone is in the hunt for vol, this beckons back to 2003 when the JGB auction failed

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 02:28 | 5742169 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

SOMEONE BUY THE GOD DAMN FUCKING DIP!  YELLEN, WE'RE LOOKING AT YOU!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 02:36 | 5742176 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

Losing, losing? You have to have control before you lose it. And no, being under the thumb doesn't count.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 03:46 | 5742249 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

Way to go to show that debts matter for your fiat currencies.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:23 | 5742390 Licka Meen Bwai
Licka Meen Bwai's picture

"The higher the yields on 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries, the better the economic outlook."

Investopedia

 

Nothing of matter here, move along...

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 07:29 | 5742458 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

How do you wipe your @$$ with digital dollars?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 10:27 | 5742794 Free2Speak
Free2Speak's picture

With your "digits"

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 08:25 | 5742523 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

"DON'T THINK JGB LIQUIDITY HAS PARTICULARLY FALLEN"

Looking at the length of the straight lines in the JGB chart leads me to believe that "particularly" does not mean what they think it means.

 

 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 09:39 | 5742632 sudzee
sudzee's picture

At some point the only option remaining will be the sale of US treasurys. 

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