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DAX Rolls Over After Merkel Says Greek Talks To "Drag On For Months"
Angela Merkel just upst the narrative in a major way. After 24 hours or so of "well Greece is fixed" chatter about compromises - that wer later rebuked by Greece's Varoufakis, no lesser uberlord of Europe than Angela Merkel just dropped the following tapebomb:
- *MERKEL SAID TO EXPECT GREEK FUNDING TALKS TO DRAG ON FOR MONTHS
Which means the crucial Feb 28th date looks like a problem - unless the ECB folds (diplomatically based on assumptions that Greece will fold in the future). The DAX (and for that matter all risk assets) is rolling over on the news...
DAX is rolling over...
And Greek Bank Bonds' bouonce has stalled...
As we explained previously, Feb 28th is D-Day...
All of the above then leaves three things that need to be clarified over the next few weeks.
First, under what conditions would the Troika be willing to extend the program and what form would this extension take? Our initial expectation was that a technical extension would have been offered to July followed by a successor ECCL program. Recent market developments and poor budget execution leave Greece’s ECCL eligibility an open question however, and it is possible that the Troika now only accepts program extension by a full year to coincide with the conclusion of the IMF program in March 2016. Such a large extension would be more difficult for the Greek government to manage domestically.
Second, does the ECB link Greek bank ELA provision to program extension as well? Given rising usage over the next few months, we would consider this an increasing possibility.
Third, what will the Greek government’s response to these conditions be? Public statements over the last 48-hours make it particularly difficult to envisage the government’s reaction function. On the one hand an offer of a one year extension and a written commitment to close the review would be particularly difficult for the government to manage domestically. On the other hand, the suspension of ECB financing of Greek banks would be exceptionally damaging to the economy.
Here is an indicative timeline of key events that will likely provide answers to these questions:
- Friday January 30th – Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem meets with the Greek finance minister Varoufakis and Deputy PM Dragasakis in Athens. A press conference will follow, with the meeting likely setting the tone of negotiations to follow.
- Sunday February 1st - Greek finance minister Varoufakis meets UK finance minister Osborne in London
- Monday February 2nd – Greek finance minister Varoufakis meets French finance minister Sapin in Paris Tuesday
- February 2nd - Greek finance minister Varoufakis meets Italian finance minister Padoan in Rome
- Wednesday February 4th-5th – Bi-weekly ECB review of ELA
- Wednesday February 4th – Likely t-bill auction to cover 1bn redemption on 6th
- Thursday February 5th - Greek parliament opens, elects new speaker of the House
- Saturday February 7-9th Government presents legislative agenda to parliament, vote of confidence midnight Monday 9th
- Wednesday February 11th – Likely tbill auction to cover 1.4bn maturity on 13th
- Thursday February 12th – European Council of EU Leaders, Tsipras likely to meet Merkel on sidelines
- Friday February 13th – Voting for new Greek President begins, EC Commissioner Avramopoulos most likely candidate as per various media reports, originating from New Democracy. Likely completed by second round on the following day requiring 151 MP majority
- Monday February 16th – Eurogroup where Greece likely to be top of agenda, conditions for extension of program to be made explicit by now
- Wednesday February 18th-19th- - Bi-weekly ELA review
- Saturday February 28th – Current EFSF program expires
In sum, developments and pressure on Greece have accelerated over the last few days, with a very large degree of uncertainty around both the Greek government’s and Troika’s position on how negotiations will proceed. We expect this to be ultimately resolved by a Troika request from the Greek side to commit to program completion and the broad contours of previously committed policy, particularly with regard to structural reform. In turn, program extension may itself be linked to ongoing ECB/ELA financing of Greek banks. The precise form this request takes and the Greek government’s reaction will ultimately determine the path Greece takes in coming weeks and months.
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Yeah baby
Bend over!
So is crude and USDJPY
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/BRENT%20CRUDE/charts?symb=UK...
Watta shit show......do these assclownsniffers think anyone believes any of their spew anymore......
extend and pretend, expand this, taper that ..
fraudulent induction of debt will not be repaid
or recognized for what it is. so, they live
in neverland, the hell version. spoiled, creepy
children, brilliant but mindless, and nothing more. the future...
and phonies too. i blame virtual communication technology
and the interwebs.
- MERKEL SAYS THE ILLUSION OF SUSTAINABLE DEBT EXPANSION TO ININITY AND BEYOND MUST NEVER BE BROKEN
- MERKEL SAYS GREECE WILL BE ALLOWED TO BECOME A "SLOW-MOTION" AUSCHWITZ IF NECESSARY TO MAKE BANKSTER BONUSES
So is crude and USDJPY
Who could have seen it coming really?
Is it a demand signal though.
Who will fold first.
http://fortruss.blogspot.fi/2015/02/sergey-glazyev-united-states-will-wa...
My guess is Greece will stop talking long before then.
Great, I didn't get enough of this the last five times.
The never ending Greek tragedy!
Go ahead Greece stop playing this fucking losing game...Tell Germany and the ECB to shove your debt directly up their fat asses!
Won't happen Greece will grab their ankles, once again, most likely!
That's her belief... but either she will accept the facts... or europe will!
She has a month eitherway ;)
US will plan good to get the notice for that!
They won't risk losing Europe to the commies for the sake of the fat lady!
This is an old military tactic...surround the castle...and just let them starve inside until they give up...you can bet greece gets no more wire transfers of money......and if I was a Greek I would get my money out of my bank now....like right now...
What is so complicated about all this Greece and EURO stuff? Why do we need a timeline until February 28 or beyond?
1) Debtor will not pay anything back.
2) Lender will not get anything back.
IT'S AS SIMPLE AS THAT, FFS!!!
Why would Greeks continue to pay interest to stay in this ridiculous "game"? They are broke and many other countries as well. So why don't they just say: "Game over"?
Sure, this means banks will be insolvent. Derivative trades and other such casino bets will blow up in our faces. It will get ugly.
But we cannot avoid it. Period. So let's admit it and get to work. The longer we wait, the more painful it will be.
It has never really been a question of "If" but a question of "When". This game can go on for a long, long, long time. Don't let your emotions ("blow the f&*^er up") influence your decision making. I have no idea when the Reset will begin.
Yes, but complicated by the fact they want to writedown to a level that seems slightly manageable, then have to deal with the fact that everyone else will be demanding the same.
"... and there's a slow ... a slow train comin' ... comin' round the bend."
I eagerly await those "likely" t-bill auctions required to fund the maturing issues.
Why Merkel insists:
With the biggest economy of the eurozone adopting such austerity measures, there will be no "good examples" for anyone to turn to, no excuses. The anti-austerity front will collapse and the European plutocracy will declare final victory.
There is no need for Yanis to change/weaken/euphemise his demand for write-off in any way. The kleptocracy has no plan B other than to continue keeping Greece in EU whatever it takes. All the rest is just smoke and mirrors.
Yanis could therefore feel quite comfortably as long as he resists scary looking but empty threats and other sort of trickery.
She's taking a page out of the Feinstein playbook. Buying time. For what? Most likely to destabilize the government.
Greek talks will draghi on for months. No angela investors on horizon.
Having an algorithm driven market tied to HFT systems is transforming the entire market into the bipolar ravings of some kid with ADHD on a sugar rush.
"Yeah it's fixed!"
"Argh, we're doomed"
"Yeah it's fixed!"
"Argh, we're doomed"
If you don't mind, I'm gonna have some Cheerios. Wake me up when they figure it out for real.
Wow... DAX is up 11.27% (1080 points) ytd and you go berserk because of a 50 point backdrop... just wow...
Can you say "B T F D"? It is a gift when the go all batshit retard.
Why is that a gift? Because you're amused when others fail? Have you missed the party? ;-)
Bbbbbbbutt the 'markets'.....
DAX rolling over hahaha
That index made new ATHs 15 of the last 20 days and you are dedicating a whole posting for a 50p drop.
You really need to get your shit together haha
So, we're going to revisit the paradigm of the midnight Sunday press conferences of April 2010 again, huh?
ZH keeps beating on the same dead horse....horse still dead. No one gives a flying fk about Greece except for ZH, and the retarded Greeks.
you are 100% right!
somebody in this site is not taking its blue pilss.....only red pills
Dax goes from 1.4 to 0.7
lol
As i Said before if Tyler had a hedge fund he would have lost 90% of investment
Ofcourse in the future the meltdown will occur - but this guy is shouting short since 2010!! WTF??
I wonder if the Greeks think they are in "funding" talks?
If it takes months, then there is much more to this than meets the eyeball, just sayin'. Do they play dominoes in PIIGS states?