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First Germany, Now ECB Rejects "Latest Greek Bailout Plan"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the Greek "conciliatory proposal" story in which Greece was said to "drop" its debt writedown request, driven by yesterday's FT article, and the catalyst for Monday's late day market surge.

As reported earlier today, first it was Germany's turn when it "threw up all over Varoufakis proposal, calling Greek plan "Half-Baked." And now, somewhat poetically, is the FT's turn to yank the other stool from underneath those who saw yesterday's development as even remotely meaningful as opposed to merely attempts by Greece's restructuring advisor Lazard to thrown anything at the wall and see what sticks, following a report that "the European Central Bank is resisting a key element of the Greek government’s new rescue plan, potentially leaving Athens with no source of outside funding when its international bailout expires at the end of the month."

Which, incidentally, is what we meant when, commenting on the revised Greek proposal which is yet another "haircut" in all but name, we said yesterday that it is "something which the ECB will never agree with."

As a reminder, Yanis Varoufakis, Greek finance minister, had proposed to European officials that Athens raise €10bn by issuing short-term Treasury bills as “bridge financing” to tide the country over for the next three months while a new bailout is agreed with its eurozone partners. Recall that February 28 is the latest and greatest D-Day for Greece, and as the ECB has made quite clear before, a deal has to be made by that date or else all bets, Greek bank funding will be cut off, but not before disastrous bank runs rock the nation in the days and hours preceding.

So here comes the latest lob by the ECB, in what is nothing but a game of "who has the more leverage."

But the ECB is unwilling to approve the debt sale. It will not raise a €15bn ceiling on T-bill issuance by the requested €10bn, according two officials involved in the deliberations. “The Greek plan relies fully on the ECB,” said another eurozone official briefed on the talks. “The ECB will play hardball.

 

Without T-bill financing, Athens will exit its bailout without access to emergency funding for the first time since the first Greek bailout began in May 2010.

 

The ECB’s stance raises the stakes in the stand-off between the anti-austerity government in Athens and its international creditors, which if unresolved, could end with Greece running out of cash within weeks.

 

It is also likely to puncture a sense of optimism among investors over Greece’s alternative rescue plan and a softening of its insistence on debt cancellation, which lifted the Athens stock market 11.3 per cent on Tuesday and pared 10-year borrowing costs by nearly a full percentage point.

At the end of the day, it was and always has been about one simple thing: who has leverage, and who is overplaying it.

Despite pressure from several EU leaders, officials who have met Mr Varoufakis say he has insisted the new government cannot ask for an extension for political reasons, since it would send a signal they are willing to go along with the current bailout — a message Mr Varoufakis reiterated at meeting on Monday in London with leading bankers.

 

“They realise their leverage is low but they feel they are on a mission, and he gives the impression that they are prepared to risk a lot,” said one banker at the London meeting. “Not renewing the programme is just an illustration. He was very clear that they will not ask for an extension.”

So with this particular avenue a dead end, the market hasn't even digested the news and here comes yet another media report citing "circles", this time Germany's FAZ, which reports on the latest attempt by Lazard to throw a few more proposal at the European wall and see if any one will stick. To wit, via BBG:

  • GREECE OFFERS TO SWAP DEBT FOR BANK SHAREHOLDINGS, FAZ REPORTS
  • GREECE OFFER WOULD COVER EU41 BILLION IN BANK BAILOUT: FAZ

It is unclear if Greece is in effect offering to do a public debt for private equity swap, in the process handing over control of its otherwise insolvent banks explicitly to existing holders of Greek debt (hint: they are already involuntary owners of the Greek banks), but whatever the proposal is, it will fail until Europe makes it very clear to the upstart Greek negotiators that whatever leverage they think they have, does not exist.

Which brings us back to what Merkel's caucus leader Volker Kauder said earlier today:

"We’re not going to play this game,” Kauder tells reporters in Berlin ahead of CDU/CSU caucus meeting. “I’m not ready to comment on half-baked plans every day. The fact remains that we have agreements with Greece and not with a government -- and these agreements have to be adhered to.”

... and, as we also said, we are now back to square one.

In other words, absolutely nothing has been resolved which is par for the course for Europe, but the momentum of Greek leverage has been broken and now it is only a matter of time before the new Greek government admits it is, for all intents and purposes, a continuation of the Pasok/ND regime where it does whatever Europe tells it to do. Unless of course, Tsipras is willing to actually make good on his pre-election promises, something which would now necessitate a full break from the Eurozone, which it has now become clear, it isn't prepared to do. Which, sadly for Greece, also means it now has absolutely zero leverage because its only trump card was the threat of a Grexit, a trump card it lost in less than 10 days.

 

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Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:14 | 5739914 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

all your euros is belong to us

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:15 | 5739926 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You are from Alabama?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:18 | 5739944 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!!   It doesn't matter if you are a bull or bear. These fat ass Wall Street bankers want your money and they're going to get it. Bet against them...you lose.  bet with them...you still lose. it's a rigged casino.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:32 | 5739987 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

ECB is perhaps playing Briar Rabbit

Or perhaps Yanis blew their cover.

Always remember Yanis with way more hair.

Now the hair is gone and Linda Evans is gone and he's been reduced to working as an economist.

Tough times.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:38 | 5740001 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

The Greek government was hoping to pull a "half baked" fast one by rolling a giant wooden horse loaded with toxic Greek bank shares up to the gates of Brussels to see if they'd bite.

Had the plan been "fully baked" it would have included substantial bribes to those in positions of power within the troika...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5740038 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Is it possible that the negotiations have nothing to do with the Greek debt and more to do with the amount of the bribe to be paid to Syriza?

Have we seen this before?

Will everythng look the same in six months.

Is it just a different shade of lipstick on the PIGGS?

What did Bush know and when did he know it?

Has anybody seen my car keys?

 

 

Think left and think right and think low and think high. Oh, the thinks you can think up if only you try!

Dr. Seuss


Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:45 | 5740055 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

There's that critical thinking at work again. I thought David Cameron had already made that illegal.

At the end of the day the game has always been about self-interest...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:50 | 5740100 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

They should have flushed Greece years ago.

Now they're out the original debt AND their bailout $$$.

"Man is the only animal that can be skinned more than once."

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:19 | 5740216 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

meanwhile, back at home the markets are hockey sticking again...what for? Today's news?  What will they do tomorrow?  I hate this manipulated shit where the only ones who make money are those that are in the 'know' with TPTB.  The little guy is soooo fucked in todays world and world leaders don't even pretend anymore.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:59 | 5740400 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Just swap Greece out of the Euro and the Ukraine in at the same time.  It's a zero sum game then.  /sarc

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:00 | 5740407 Vic Odd
Vic Odd's picture

I'm making over 60 billion Euros a month out of thin air working part time for the ECB. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can print at central banks so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do..

 

Print Euros to buy interest bearing bonds

 

Wait until the interest on those loans can not be paid off by Governments unless they incur more debt

 

Wait until there is blood in the streets and print more Euros so I can buy real assets such as water rights, minerals, precious metals and real estate.

 

Rig markets so that those real assets rise in value

 

Rise repeat

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 22:41 | 5741663 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

"I'm making over 60 billion Euros a month out of thin air working part time for the ECB"

 

.....in your spare time, at home !

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:49 | 5740092 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

oh well, the greeks have to wait until next election.

unless they are prepared for a revolution. Victoria nuland looking for a new country to fuck up?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:17 | 5740213 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I know, have Victoria sell the Greeks to the Turks and they can march them into the desert..   Germans can have Greece and the NG fields..

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:30 | 5740556 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The new greek PM and finance minister should do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, for the next 60 days. When the EU and the Germans come knocking on the door, they should tell them to go fuck off!.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:51 | 5740531 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

"Which, sadly for Greece, also means it now has absolutely zero leverage because its only trump card was the threat of a Grexit, a trump card it lost in less than 10 days."

Not really. There are still some cards left. I'd rather say the oligarchy is one step ahead on the chessboard. The next move could be starting bilateral negotiations with Russia regarding bridging loan as well as developing further relations. This mere act would pretty shake the oligarchs up. Another card would be to postpone paying off the debt. Meanwhile the Drachma scenario could be prepared and connected with the final exit. The process could be stopped at any time when agreement is reached. After then we would see who is actually out of trump cards. It may well be that EU threatening is the very last effective card. Each additional step may invoke unpredictable events in the public sphere that can significantly influence the next move, which can eventually make Greece unbearable burden on the EU shoulders and the game is over. There is much at stake in the EU and the overall social situation in Europe is quite brisant.

So, some cards still exist. The question is whether Greece has courage for the next move. I would personally say, yes.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:44 | 5740979 Economics Considered
Economics Considered's picture

I think your perspective is a very astute one.    After denial that Siriza was all that much a likelihood, at least with enough seats to take control, I think the plutocracy/oligarchy was a little slow to get their repressive comments going.   But with such an incredibly intense sense of entitlement that the EU oligarchy has, they cannot conceive that they will not be able to brow-beat Greece into submission.  And they certainly cannot mentally accept that Greece has options that will take it completely out from under the thumb of the EU bureaucracy.   But I also believe that Greece has a completely sufficient set of options that they can pursue.  I have nothing but significant admiration for their measured approach and their process of trying to get the EU to enter a meaningful dialong - really a responsible and respectful approach.   With their sense of entitlement and sense of unbridled power, the EU oligarchy cannot even begin to fathom this responsible attempt to work out something that will let Greece get out from under the debt_servitude/company_store repression - and can only envision this regime's attempt at deliberation as a total weakness and inevitable capitulation.   My sense is that this is completely delusional denial.   I agree completely with you that this Greek regime is very likely to have the fortitude to proceed with whatever resolution is necessary.  

Their campaign was conducted with NO obligations whatsoever to ANY of the oligarchical groups in Greece.   The oligarchies and the plutocracy in Greece are every bit as intense and maybe even much more intense in their feeling  of entitlement than the EU bureaucracy.   The internal war that is inevitable as this government tries to strip the oligarchies of their priviledge may be FAR more intense than the battle with the EU which, in reality, has little to no leverage whatsoever unless this government cannot find some way to keep enough cash to operate until they can get tax revenues flowing again.

Again - very astute post.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:40 | 5740032 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Brer Rabbit.  Briar patch is where he "claimed" he didn't want to be thrown.

ECB is definitely not Brer Rabbitting this thing.  Greece walks and they're going to have to break a whole bunch more Mastricht Treaty clauses to hold that calliope called the Euro together.

Sorry, no Tar Baby reference in this post.  Not in the mood to go there today.

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:44 | 5740050 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

My bad.  Been a few years.

Yanis at Downing Street yesterday advised by City of London bankers.

Looks like theater to me.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 18:13 | 5740322 Bob
Bob's picture

Advised.  Hilarious. 

We don't know who advised whom. Or if it was high five's all around, followed by a daisy chain, considering the City. 

There's definitely theater going on.  But it's only the first Act.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:18 | 5739953 Longshot
Longshot's picture

I don't get it?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:27 | 5739989 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Racial.  "you is what you is".

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:44 | 5740063 Longshot
Longshot's picture

I assumed it was something stereotypical about southerners, I was waiting for him to say it so I could call him out for being a prick.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5740044 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

And yet the +400 Dow holds even though the FT story proved predictably worthless

 

Super Bowl security breach- guards helped two men sneak in!

Attention terrorists, here's how to do it:

http://tinyurl.com/kw7wuk9

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:42 | 5740047 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:55 | 5740119 noben
noben's picture

This is like trying to get a French girl to bed:

A 'NO!' means a Maybe, and a 'Maybe' means a Yes.

You just need the cultural translator. Banksters and Financiers have their own subculture that you have to learn, like any other.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:16 | 5739933 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

What happens once Greece says "fuck it we hold the cards" and broadly announces "Haircut bitches!" whilst accepting aid from Russia/China

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:19 | 5739950 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Exactly.  Seems to me the ECB is more afraid of Greece's debt than Greece is.  lmao.

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:23 | 5739965 Gilnut
Gilnut's picture

Seems to me that the ECB and Germany are playing "the game", what they don't seem to realize (and probably won't until it's too late) is that Greece is serious.  This will continue right up to the point where Greece says FU.  Then Germany and the ECB will be "WTF.....that's not how this game is played".   Can't wait to see the look on thier faces when Greece finally does say FU.....and means it!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:29 | 5739994 jaap
jaap's picture

Why not just adopt the Ruble?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:51 | 5740102 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

They are waiting for it to collapse a little more when Obama's Nazis start attacking again this spring...

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:30 | 5739997 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Greece is serious'.....my money is on 'Greece folds like a cheap lawn chair'

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:50 | 5740087 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I'm not betting either way.  All that I can say is that if I were Greece's government and I were, in fact, serious, I would not be pitching hardballs, I would be pitching grenades.  I would attempt to dissuade the EU from calling my bluff by not bluffing.  How well this would work depends on what financial instruments in the EU banking system are exposed to Greece. 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:55 | 5740127 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

I doubt the folks in the Greek gov, worked that hard to get elected, just so they could roll over and take it up the a** from the Troika. I suspect both sides will get a bit of what they want, or the whole thing blows up. Greece is probably to the point, they don't have a lot to lose. Kinda like a cornered wild animal.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:09 | 5740184 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That is entirely possible, but I've also seen too many politicians do a 180 when in office.  It's why I won't make any claims as to how this will turn out.  I will say this:  When somebody is hell bent on bending you to their will, you often have to do something terrifyingly brutal to get them to stop. 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:09 | 5740182 Gilnut
Gilnut's picture

So far Greece's government has pretty much held the line.  They've softened the language somewhat, but essentially they've been pitching a write-down from day 1.  Makes me believe that they aren't going to budge, especially with platitutes from Spain and Obama (both of which are just "playing the game").   I put the odds of a Grexit at 60-40 right now and climbing.  ECB.....you  might as well just say Germany since they are the only ecoonomy left in the EU that's not broken......is painting itself in a corner, just the the Fed.  I sitll think Greece will catch everybody offguard when they act unilaterally (i.e. Grexit), probably backstopped by trade agreements, and possibly funding with Russia and maybe even China.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 18:30 | 5740764 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

It seems early in the game but considering the deadlines given for decisions (30 days?) by the EU maybe it is not.  My take is that Greece did more than soften the language.  They took default off the table (or has that changed again) and are now talking in terms that the EU does not find as frightening.  They got Greece to start to move the wrong direction and Greece has lost momentum.  If Greece compromises the new terms may be severe in terms of collateral.  The bankers have wanted Greece to pledge it's infrastructure and islands, if they do the country is finished.

Greece cannot let the EU set the date for their decision.  The EU will be preped to hammer Greece in new ways and to declare a true default has not happened.

Greece should load up one bank with as much junk and derivitives as possible and in a surprise announcement declare that bank is in official default and will not be saved.  Catch them before they are prepared.  Then even a Greexit can occur on better terms.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:19 | 5739954 skistroni
skistroni's picture

(The government, not Greece) If they do, they won't be able to fund their promises, by which they got elected. If they won't keep their promises, they'll be out very soon. So expect one or more concessions, sooner or later.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:46 | 5740070 agent default
agent default's picture

Their promises are  a direct violation of existing austerity measures.  Also the previous government did not implement none of the really tough reforms of the existing agreement.  If they don't implement these, no funding period.  Everything else is just a smoke screen.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:23 | 5739962 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

1div -   i believe that is half the threat.  the other half is that cutting loose, printing inflationary drachmas and ending the euro-imposed austerity will cause some short-term happy, and start looking pretty good to portugal, spain, italy....

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:17 | 5739935 skistroni
skistroni's picture

On a long enough timeline, the return of principal rate for every lender to Greece drops to zero.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:19 | 5739945 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Entire worldviews changing 180 within a few hours now.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:24 | 5739970 cossack55
cossack55's picture

In the age of FB, Instacrap and Twitter that will soon be down to minutes. Please awaken me then. Thanks.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:24 | 5739974 mrkolice
mrkolice's picture

ESCALATE!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:26 | 5739983 unplugged
unplugged's picture

Goodbye EU.  Hello Russia.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:44 | 5740056 mrkolice
mrkolice's picture

tomorrow we have varoufakis vs draghi. next day varoufakis vs schauble. putin not scheduled yet, first things first, but soon yes, we gonna see putin. this is going medieval.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:18 | 5740214 unplugged
unplugged's picture

UFC #185 & #186.  Go Greece !

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:27 | 5739986 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They had to go all in and say that either there are write downs or we leave. That was the only position they could take. All of this just makes them look weak and shows that they don't have the sand to make the big play.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:31 | 5740006 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

This is essentially the crux of the matter.  

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:32 | 5739996 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

This is like some shithouse "will they, won't they" rom com, except unlike the rom com

you're not going to get laid (which is the only reason why you're watching it in the first place),

and this one is gonna last for months instead of 2 hours.

 

Sucks to be me right now.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:30 | 5739998 naiverealist
naiverealist's picture

Remember, the Russians cancelled the South Stream gas pipeline through Bulgaria and rerouted it through Greece.  This will be a major economic factor for Greece, what with added jobs building the pipeline and the transit fees for routing the gas through Greece.

What does the ECB have to offer?  NO, Nein, Non, etc. (you get the idea).

Now Greece will have no alternative but to accept assistance and trade deals with Russia, and will eventually leave the EU, establishing the Drachma once again as their currency, while leaving the EU wallowing in its own banker/oligarchic cesspool.

It will soon be Greece's turn to say NO!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:37 | 5740961 Leknam
Leknam's picture

Agree,  also don't forget that the Americans are on the Greeks side.

They don't want to run the risk of the Greeks getting to close to the 

Russians.Its coming to a pivotal moment.

 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 07:49 | 5742480 walktheline
walktheline's picture

This why Varoufakis is always smiling and the various Euro daleks are always scowling.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:32 | 5739999 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

We have to spend the money to see if we want to borrow the money.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:35 | 5740017 Kolchak
Kolchak's picture

anyone for icelantic greek ice?  hahahahaha  same way as all illegal debt will go, out the window. if everyones not in debt up to their collective asses, nows the time as it will all blow away like the lies we've been told.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:42 | 5740247 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

To paraphrase..there must be fifty ways to leave your Euro..

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:37 | 5740021 indaknow
indaknow's picture

ECB standing up to ......Greece?

Ramp it up, full steam ahead, this is fanfuckingtastic.

ECB backs down?........ramp it up, all is well, unfucking believable opportunitys ahead.

Grexit?....ramp the shit out of it, the world is saved, we finally achieved escape velocity.

Tired, just fucking tired of it.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:36 | 5740023 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

We Are Sparta!

 

 

ECB: This doesn't make sence, surely they know the outcome?

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:39 | 5740316 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I think cence has two C's

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:39 | 5740031 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The more you owe, the more you own

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:04 | 5740037 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

They say these things all the time. They are in panic. Russia waits:

http://x2t.com/Fyo

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5740041 SparticusUK
SparticusUK's picture

If the Greeks take aid from Putin and leave the Troika to huff and puff.. what exactly are the punative measures available to the EU?

 To me it looks like the Greeks are in the driving seat.. the EU painted itself into an austerity coloured corner and can do little about the current situation. 

What ever the Greeks decide regarding their future, the Eurocrats will have to accept, eventually.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:46 | 5740623 Augustus
Augustus's picture

It will the end of the Greek Banks which hold Greek deposits and were crammed full of Greek Government bonds.  All of Greece will be bailed-in.  Could the newly issued stock certificates be used as the new currency instead of drachma?  Will Russia give them an unlimited Emergency Liquidity Assistance fund in the form of Rubles?  The EU would like to get anything back instead of 0 on the already extended funds.  Convert the ATMs to dispense paper with pictures of Vlad?  The russian methods of exerting control are on display in Ukraine.  Good luck Greeks.

It may be that the EU is screwed.  Maybe the EU will decide no longer be the ewe at the Muzzie boy's birthday party. 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5740043 youngman
youngman's picture

I love the Greeks new plan..its to sell bonds that dont pay interrest or get paid back until they start making money....lol...choking to death I am laughing so hard....like when will a politician ever say they are making enough money to pay off a loan.....and who do they think is stupid enough to buy something like this in the first place...I hold my breath on this....they probably could sell them....this is a great comedy...and the Finance guy is an avid Marxist....so we have to give him free money right...LOL...just stupid

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:41 | 5740048 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Go on, take the money and run....

Greece needs to 'play ball' and agree to anything until the next ECB/IMF pay date -- then collect the Euros -- then say F*ck Off.  But to do that, Greece has to really think through all the events that will happen, and they do not seem to be doing that.  Thus they have a plan, someone says 'how about it', and then the plan changes.  If Greece can only run 26 miles, it will never finish the Marathon!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:44 | 5740066 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Day 3 of 28 and the BLADDER WORKS are tossed around hoping to land on a Pot to Piss in/on.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:49 | 5740084 indaknow
indaknow's picture

Everyone in the world knows Greece is defaulting............except the Algos....by design.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:51 | 5740098 JR
JR's picture

There’s no agreement. Where is the evidence that Greece won’t exit? And where is the evidence that Greece does not have leverage; they just had an election where a huge outpouring of the Greek people said NO! to the current arrangement with the ECB. When Kauder said, we have agreements with Greece and not with a government, he inadvertently admitted that the Greek people have the leverage and not necessarily the government.

In the final analysis, can the new government exist without fulfilling its clear mandate?

Can the people of Europe from now on, look at Draghi, the EU, The EZ, and the EBC and say that they are free? When a majority of a so-called sovereign nation cannot protect their own interests then they are no longer free. Their vote means nothing.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:52 | 5740101 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

So the Socialists are proposing to transfer all the private assets to wealthy Russians in a round about way right?  "public debt for private equity swap" 

Obviously if you don't pay the loan back..........the collectors get the property (that would be wealthy Russians) and the public that  assumed the debts and liabilities-keeps them-but not their property. 

SyRiza has a large "line of credit"......... all the private property in Greece not yet stolen or pawned to banks. 

I bet Yanis gets good ganja as Greek finance minister, probably got some hot assistants that would put Jeffery Epstein to shame.

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:53 | 5740110 Trahald
Trahald's picture

Just part of the negotiation; Greece is looking to deal as is the EU, laying down their lines in the sand, but a deal will be reached.  The consequences for the stabillity of EU is worth way more than a 100bn.  It is Greece that has the alternative play.  Hey looky over there. those pesky Russians are murdering innocent women and children in Ukraine (probably with chemical weapons) - best we stop those attrocities.  This will happen before they let the EU fall.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:54 | 5740112 Free_Spirit
Free_Spirit's picture

Problem for Greece is that the markets have already priced in default and grexit. Suggesting shares in bankrupt worthless Greek banks was never going to work, but was worth a go. There is no alternative to grexit now, but what they can do is as much damage as possible on the way out. So delay grexit as long as possible, take as much Euros from ECB as possible, default and convert all debt to New Drachmas which they "pay off by printing" on the first day, thus giving them zero national debt to pay interest on while having busily tied up nice contracts with the Shanghai Group for shipping rights, farm produce, gas exploration rights etc. Or adopt the Ruble and have done with it.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:56 | 5740135 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

I agree with most of what you say, but not that the market has priced in Grexit. Not with the DAX at record highs nearly touching 11000.

We are again at nosebleed levels.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:55 | 5740122 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

ECB are shitting bricks. They think Greece is containable, and will bend over for another ass fuck. But Greece have options, and Russia are probably secretly offering them a choice to join them. The South stream is a BIG ISSUE, and they all know it. 

If Grexit happens the ECB will have full on diarhea over Spain et al. 

Hold firm Tspiras.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:25 | 5740251 Haager
Haager's picture

Not only it's South-Stream, but with the location near Turkey Europe better be sure of loyalty of Greece. And don't forget Israel which is much nicer to be reached by boat.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:45 | 5740978 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

however

 And don't forget Israel which is much nicer to be reached by boat.

The MV Mavi Marmara wouldn't be my first choice in boatwear.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:55 | 5740125 whatthecurtains
Wed, 02/04/2015 - 05:06 | 5742334 nicxios
nicxios's picture

From article: 

I'll tell you who got Europe into this whole mess (the Europeans' own mistakes notwithstanding) - it was the big American investment banks and all their gambling that triggered the global financial crisis. It certainly wasn't the respectable German savings banks.

Bold part: LO fukin L

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:57 | 5740134 indaknow
indaknow's picture

Bought some old fashioned today, made me feel a little better. Holidays are almost over....should have picked up more crazy pills.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 15:56 | 5740136 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

And as you print this the market shoots to the moon!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:01 | 5740159 css1971
css1971's picture

Simple. Start printing drachma again. Pass some emergency legislation, make it a legal currency within Greece and at the same time introduce 100% reserve banking.

Greek financial crisis solved. Cost? How much does a printer cost?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:16 | 5740488 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

It's not the printer, it's the ink cartridges.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:05 | 5740168 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

If Greece's gov really has a pair, now would be a good time to demonstrate the fact.

Everything else is just Kabuki theater.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:04 | 5740170 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Soooooooo...by saying nothing is fixed you mean 'Greece will pay everybody back'???

 

(because that is what those nice people on TV are saying)

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:15 | 5740199 indaknow
indaknow's picture

Yes, apparently the fairy bailout mother dropped by and made everyone whole. or maybe we're just not awake yet. either way it's all good.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:06 | 5740171 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

 

GREEK DUDES

 

Have a referendum and then Russia will annex you.

CHINA will be your Godfather.

ALL THE KUNG PAO MONEY YOU WANT

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:06 | 5740180 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

ECB? probably didn't meet their debt desire threshhold, Greece needs to borrow $250B cuz the ECB needs to print a trill or two MOAR  to keep up with the Gringoes and Japs, they (EU) got an "off books" war they're waging against Russia that has to be paid for and the warmongers never pay for their wars, public debt pays for wars

The ECB is holding out for MOAR debt, a "bigger bailout", MOAR players, Germany, France and ...........everywhere.

Say how's the French Car-B-ques going? Have the French imposed "Austerity" yet?  Or jsut pretend austerity? 

Still funding that massive unemployed Muslim population?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:20 | 5740225 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Kauder's presumably already had a word with candidates for Tsipras' replacement in the army of the Hellenic Republic in case of a serious attempt at Grexit.

Face facts---Tsipras et al. will play ball or they'll be overthrown and killed or driven into exile, and replaced by someone who'll jump when Brussels says hop. Simple as that.

Moral to this story. A nation serious about remaining free need four things:

1. Control of their own money supply;

2. No debt;

3. Enough fossil fuels to meet their own needs and then some;

4. A credible nuclear deterrent.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:34 | 5740280 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

As heated negotiations rage, the Greek army digs in at the border adorned in their fancy feathered hats, tunics, knee socks, oramental swords & curly toed boots! They obviously mean business this time!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:35 | 5740299 Batman11
Batman11's picture

How about something really radical from Greece.

Default and drop the Euro and the adopt the Chinese yuan.

No Western banker will be able to punish them.

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:40 | 5740310 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Or most radical like manning up, working hard, restructuring their socialist nightmare, making sacrifices and paying off their debts to the satisfcation of their creditors!

Naaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:14 | 5740471 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The German's are no role model.

Full default - 1933

50% debt reduction - 1953

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:22 | 5740518 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

They were fortunate not to be part of the misaligned EU!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:57 | 5740391 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

We'd ALL be better off reading from the Balance Sheet as to Whom own's the Debt and the Origin. Restructurings and Transactions over the previous Government's Reign and how things stand to date.

However , the DETAILS were not fit for public consumption as per a court ruling for and on behalf of GOLDMAN SACHS.

A Spokesperson for the ECB explains their position ( off the record ) ' The Citizenry of Greece are far too preoccupied ( killing themselves ) for us to worry their little heads on matters way above their level of understanding. Rest assured we are acting in their best interest.'

usual disclaimers apply.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:58 | 5740405 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

The small print gets 'ya every time!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:59 | 5740401 trader1
trader1's picture

Define "Greece".  Who? What? 

When, how, why did / does "Greece" agree to these "agreements"?

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 16:59 | 5740411 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Grease is the Word!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:25 | 5740534 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

The only error was made by the lenders giving the serial defaulters any $$$!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:55 | 5741017 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

This is the symptom of the  corporate / schizophrenic / collective identity disorder that afflicts most modern men.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:19 | 5740495 Cynthia11640
Cynthia11640's picture

As of today's news, the Greek government and the ECB are cornered. On the one hand, if the government renigs on its promise to its people, chaos will insue. If they are forced to sustain the debt, the people will likely revolt... and with that no one will get paid.

Of course, everything will change tomorrow - What needs to change is the attitude of the Greek people, they need to come together if they are going to stay in the West

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:30 | 5740570 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

. . . . stay in the west with their friends ,Goldman and Vicky Nuland. . . with friends like those who needs enemies?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:20 | 5740513 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

With sweet fuck all to lose bar excavating land for cemetery purposes the Government of Greece are proving that they are pursuing every avenue for their Peoples.

If it falls flat they can point to the Money Changers and prior crony capitalism which most likely was illegal and/or unconstitutional.

With a total debt write-off they can now spin shackle free away from The Dark Side and into their future on the Bright Side with Russia & China.

Ghordius has slipped out of his smoking jacket and retired to bed at 8pm as per usual. The fiasco after fiasco is taking its toll.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:22 | 5740514 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

That wasn't my fault it was GCHQ on my case.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:24 | 5740526 Lea
Lea's picture

This is bad news for Pablo Iglesias, the Spanish Podemos leader, and for Jean-Luc Melenchon, the French ultra-left wing leader, as both have the same delusional idea they can change the EU's rules without having to get the heck out of that quagmire, when any sane person understands you should.

Syriza won with that program. Podemos and the French ultra-left wing are peddling the same garbage to clueless voters.

What I don't get, as a European, is why on earth do the voters of France, Greece and Spain want so badly to stay in the EU? Note that the vast majority of the people have lost plenty with the EU. So, is it only propaganda and fearmongering or do they put tranquilizers in the water or something?

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:28 | 5740547 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It was lots of fun when they got the $$$ to spend. Not so much anymore! :(

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:23 | 5740530 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

The EU is just like a poker table with some skilled players owning a few chips, and some rubes with piles of chips - won from the rubes. The only reason the rubes are still at the table is to try, and win back the chips from the skilled players.

Greece is the skilled player.

The German rubes are throwing good after bad.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:34 | 5740578 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Despite pressure from several EU leaders, officials who have met Mr Varoufakis say he has insisted the new government cannot ask for an extension for political reasons, since it would send a signal they are willing to go along with the current bailout — a message Mr Varoufakis reiterated at meeting on Monday in London with leading bankers.

 

“They realise their leverage is low but they feel they are on a mission, and he gives the impression that they are prepared to risk a lot,” said one banker at the London meeting. “Not renewing the programme is just an illustration. He was very clear that they will not ask for an extension.”

+++++++++++++++

 

Good for Greece.  The new Finance Minister is an economics socialist with the same visions of Glory as a Muzzie Suicide Bomber.  Should be an interesting bus ride to the schooling the country will get. 

When will he pull the pin?  When will he pull the pin?  When will he pull the pin?  When will he pull the pin?

Will Vlad calm him down?  Will Li Keqiang or Xi Jinping calm him down?

Thar she blows!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 17:41 | 5740608 Unix
Unix's picture

It's all fixed according to the yahoos at yahoo finance

U.S. stocks rally amid oil spike, Greece optimism

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 18:49 | 5740842 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

I think when the payment deadline hits the Greeks should  play their 'bouzouki's' & everything will be alright! 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:40 | 5740964 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Joke:

a little kid goes to his mom and says, 'mom I made a million dollars today'

Mom: 'how'

kid: 'I sold our cat for two half million dollar gerbils'

The kid grows up to be a default swap trader and fx insider selling greek bonds.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 19:50 | 5740995 Economics Considered
Economics Considered's picture

After denial that Siriza was all that much a likelihood, at least with enough seats to take control, I think the plutocracy/oligarchy was a little slow to get their repressive comments going.   But with such an incredibly intense sense of entitlement that the EU oligarchy has, they cannot conceive that they will not be able to brow-beat Greece into submission.  And they certainly cannot mentally accept that Greece has options that will take it completely out from under the thumb of the EU bureaucracy.   But I believe the likelihood is that Greece has a completely sufficient set of options that they can pursue.  I have nothing but significant admiration for their measured approach and their process of trying to get the EU to enter a meaningful dialong - really a responsible and respectful approach.   With their sense of entitlement and sense of unbridled power, the EU oligarchy cannot even begin to fathom this responsible attempt to work out something that will let Greece get out from under the debt_servitude/company_store repression - and can only envision this regime's attempt at deliberation as a total weakness and inevitable capitulation.   My sense is that this is completely delusional denial.   I think that this Greek regime is very likely to have the fortitude to proceed with whatever resolution is necessary.  

Their campaign was conducted with NO obligations whatsoever to ANY of the oligarchical groups in Greece.   The oligarchies and the plutocracy in Greece are every bit as intense and maybe even much more intense in their feeling  of entitlement than the EU bureaucracy.   The internal war that is inevitable as this government tries to strip the oligarchies of their priviledge may be FAR more intense than the battle with the EU which, in reality, has little to no leverage whatsoever unless this government cannot find some way to keep enough cash to operate until they can get tax revenues flowing again.

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 21:50 | 5741446 Herdee
Herdee's picture

I'm waiting to see if the new Greek Finance Minister meets with the Russians and Chinese.That could be a game changer.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 06:47 | 5742418 Midnight Hour
Midnight Hour's picture

No matter how many times the EU says no deal, it makes no difference, Greece is broke and giving them more Euros will not make a difference. I am sure that ZH Readers dont know that Yanis Varoufakis is a dual Greek Australian Passport Holder. Aussies are the best.

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