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Is The "Other" Most Crowded Trade Of 2015 Starting To Crack?
With the recent collapse of Treasury yields, the massive short position in bonds has been dramatically unwound (though there is still plenty left). However, there is the other "most crowded" trade in the world - Long The USDollar - that remains... but is starting to show some cracks in the armor. Despite the highest levels of Short EUR, Long USD since the very peak of the EU Crisis in 2012 and still massively long net dollar positions across sell-side OTC indications and CFTC exchange-traded positions, the last 2 days have seen the biggest drop in the USD Index since September 2013... is the world's most crowded trade about to unwind?
No one has started to fold yet...
As the USDollar appears to be stalling post QECB...
This should not be a total surprise as Goldman appeared to call the top in the USD last week
Charts: Bloomberg
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See this shit show will never stop....I can't take it anymore....please let it end or stop with the sky is falling articles...thanks
Yeah they've worn me out too......I of course don't blame the messenger ZeroHedge. But after 5 long years, I'm tired of reading it..
If it ever collapses I hope to read about it here at ZeroHedge, but until then I'm throwing in the towel......I don't care any more and all ZeroHedge is doing at this point is making me pissed of at ZeroHedge.
TPTB timeline is much longer than mine. Their pain threshold is much greater than mine. They win. I lose.
For at least immediate future. Good bye ZeroHedge.
KING DOLLAR!!!
If you come at the King, you better kill him.
The "velocity" of the king seems to suggest many are simply leaving his court...
"TPTB timeline is much longer than mine. Their pain threshold is much greater than mine. They win. I lose."
Why not play their game. We all know the rules. Yes, one day it will go boom, but until then .........
Exactly
Ya, they can manipulate the markets longer than you can remain solvent. So, it really is just a matter of time. I like to come here to read the articles, some truth to all of it, but more to read the comments, as they are sometimes more enlightening to the subject at hand.
Are they manipulating the markets, or have they become the markets? Hard to tell just how far into this we've come.
Wrong to give up guys. I personally know how frustrating it is. It is a shit show of massive proportions, but it will end. And when it does end we will all finally be vindicated for our thoughts and beliefs of the truth. It cannot go on much longer.
Why, even when I talk to the checkers at WalMart they even understand what is going down. I agree it is taking much longer then even I thought it would, but I do believe we are in the final inning of this madness.
Stay with us and keep that hand on the Tiller. I have not changed one position in a long long time. I am not giving up. I hope you don't either.
What? Is this like insurance? If you die young you win?
Hard to take you seriously when your account is four weeks old.
I've been on here since the beginnig...I've been banned a lot for speaking hard truths
I was Obama_4_Dicator before I banned...and before that I was 03GTcoupe.....
No reply needed, I had to take a call, you replied before posting below. I don't remember those names. You might of only had a 6 week expiration date on ZH.. just kidding.
Zerohedge has been instrumental for me becoming insane and basically giving up on the world
That is your weakness, you never give up. This is the fight club, not a limp wristed PC club. Now I understand why you get banned. Good luck this time around.
No I got banned not for giving up, but for talking about a certain type of people - hint (think racoons)
nm
oh
nm
This conversation has been terminated. Again, good luck maintaining your ZH forum presence this time around.
Damn racoons. Clever little masked bandits. Don't let them move into your attic, because their shit will give you brain worms that leave you mentally crippled. They also spread rabies.
Or did you mean the other racoons? I was jumping to conclusions, mainly because of the Voltaire quote: "To find out who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize".
Exactly must be the beginning of time. What was your call out name during Zerohedge blogspot? That was the beginning of time. I myself was a active reader (was still on my Market Watch training wheels website mode), until I took the plunge in signing up thru Sacrilege. So who were you?
I think I signed up in 2009 / 2010...so I may have missed that - I really can't remember
True that my_base, but I am sure that person is older than 4 weeks old, and knows this is a shit show! My account is even younger, yet I have battle fatigue as well. Manipulate, rob, extend and pretend is not just isloated news to ZH, you know that right?
His account is only 4 weeks old but give him a break, he's the eTrade baby.
That is a epic video. LOL
Goldman prophesies. Really?
Ransquawk earlier
"A tier 1 US bank went short EUR/USD around 1.1430 with a target of 1.0400 and a stop at 1.1710"
Was that for their clients?
So does current dollar strength 'prove' (within the system) that debt monetization doesn't matter when you're big enough and those debts are in your own currency?
If it did collapse wouldn't that be bad for the EU, China, Japan, etc?
Right. It isn't even "Good" for China. Running down anyone's economy is against everyone's interest and Franklin/Hamilton (the two guys who invented the US) expressly opposed ever doing that. Uh, but, it will be worse for some more than others. China actually can back their currency with gold (20,000tns) and are set to do that in their BRICS bank. And, by the way, so can the largest gold producer, Russia (25,000tns). Both have no debt.
Compare these to Japan and Europe. Of course for the US, when the Dollar falls out of bed (because of all the derivative paper tied to it and all that gold that went away, ie, stolen) international imports will become a problem. Yes, oil will come back up...lots...in dollars. (Yes, gold/silver will be way up...in dollars.) But, oil (and gold) in Yuan and Rubles will continue to remain stable and will be what "everyone" uses for trades "tomorrow".
Silverdoctors or the most recent interview with Timpone...?
The USD has to collapse in value before the FED can raise rates.
Yep. I'm also starting to think this is part of the reason Stevens lowered the AUD rates by 25bps last night. The Aussie has already retraced 60% of the move down last night. That and he may have gotten an early look at the housing and retail sales numbers tomorrow, and wanted to get out in front of them.
The UE's crappy yen, budget's blowing out too, revenues down, growth questionable. Stevens is watching the big picture and knows his local little picture is not in good shape for it, this time around. I see it as pre-empting too, just to get it moving down. The $1/litre petrol is what's levitating things for now, Christmas was a splurge on the plastic. AUD needs to fall some for what's coming, and Stevens knows it, so is happy to keep talking it down. Better to try to bounce the economy up a bit while others are coming down. Don't want to be in phase with it if a plunge hits.
More paper games...
As the unemployment lines start to swell again we all get to re-learn just how fast "low prices" turns into shortages.
For all of humanity's "genius", it's still an oil-based economy...
It's a rigged game.......just like sporting events!
Of course, it's a rigged casino, where the house ultimately wins!
Obama is going to ask everyone to reinvest in Pre-Terrorism US Bonds. Michelle is going to advocate GMO Food Bonds.
/Sarc
Noticing more and more stats that were highest or most or worst since 2007 popping up lately...
Even if the King LOLlar trade fades, another most crowded trade will come and take its place right away anyway.
What's this? Crack isn't yet a crowded trade, Wall Street demands more crack?
Still see Rates US to> EU to> Japan and Capital Flows the other way with US seen as (for the moment) the Safe Haven. So long as money keep going into US dollar should keep going. Not that a correction can't happen on the way up.
But once investors realize that US is as fucked up as any other country...
In response to the title of this piece: No. It's just a minor head-fake. Is no one watching what's going on in Europe? Within the next month to six weeks, another event will occur to ramp up the threat to the integrity of the EU, and thus the euro itself. Just watch what happens as europe piles into dollars and its public domain really begins to take gold seriously, delivering a double-whammy to the dollar as 1) it begins to rise at a ferocious pace (thus imploding derivatives and contracts of all kinds in effectively every country on the planet) and 2) finally delivering a force majeur to the COMEX, that will in turn expose the true weakness behind the dollar from several fronts.
In brief, the looming disintegration of the euro will deliver a kill shot to the dollar as well. Get your waterbuckets ready for the Great Conflagration, boys and girls, because the euro is already a dead man walking. We're all just waiting for that one, last domino...
Personally, I anticipate a rapid return to the deutchmark, backed by gold and industrial goods, and, inevitably, the disintegration of NATO.
Don't give up guys, remember its a Shemitah year, By the fall all us shorts will be fat and happy
Interesting timing. I sold my EU double shorts this morning.
Long politicians. BTFD
If you think Long Dollar is a crowded trade you know $#|+ aboout finance. The world has epic levels of debt written in USD... the world is massively short the dollar.
And if you think a foreign policy debacle or 3 can't change an 80 year-old dynamic in a matter of days, you know even less about (geopolitical) finance -
FELIX ZULAUF:
U.S. DOLLAR
The US dollar is going to remain the strongest currency over the next two years but it will have a correction at some point.
It will be when the market recognizes that the US economy will not grow 3%-4% but rather 2%.
And that time it will be clear that interest rates hikes by the FED will be off the table for this year.
Those who bought the dollar for the wrong reasons namely an accelerating US economy will sell and we have a correction.
That correction will be short lived because there are structural forces that drive the dollar higher.
These structural forces are rooted in the Greenspan, Bernanke policy of the past when they made the dollar a weak currency by too easy monetary policies for too long.
Corporations outside the US used the dollar as a funding currency and they have build up debt in the order of $10 trillion.
All those corporations outside the US saw there liabilities going higher due to a rising US-dollar.
That is almost like a short position that has to be covered. And it will be covered over time and that is the driving factor behind the strengthening US-dollar.
A strong currency and a softer US economy, much lower inflation rates close to 0% this year will bring down bond yields.
U.S. STOCKS
There will be a stock market correction around 10%–15%.
Probably in the first half or second half of this year but it is difficult to see exactly when.
For stocks the decisive factor will be in the currencies.
US Multinationals will suffer from the strong dollar with foreign earnings that are worse less due to lower translation numbers in foreign exchange.
And therefore there will be disappointments and there will be sell offs.
It’s not going to be a big bear market because there is just too much liquidity around in the world and interest rates are simply too low.
FROM: Felix Zulauf on KWN, February 01, 2015 - AUDIO http://kingworldnews.com/felix-zulauf-2-1-15/