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Who Owns Greek Debt And When Is It Due?
Amid all the headline hockey and confirmation biases of every utterance by Varoufakis, the only important thing is the following 2 charts... how much pain... and when!!
- It will be politics rather than economics that drives the shorter-term outlook in Greece. Our base case remains that, eventually, some accommodation will be found between the new Greek government and Greece’s official creditors. This view has led us, so far, to expect modest spillovers from financial tensions in Greece to other Euro area markets. Thus far, this has proven correct.
- But the new Greek government’s position is turning more Eurosceptic and confrontational than we anticipated ahead of last weekend’s election. This increases the risk of a political miscalculation leading to an economic and financial accident and, possibly, Greek exit from the Euro area (“Grexit”). While the European authorities now have better tools to address market dislocations in general (and the re-emergence of convertibility risk in particular), these are unlikely to be activated in a manner that entirely pre-empts market tension should Grexit risks intensify or materialise. We would expect significant market volatility surrounding an event of such systemic nature as Grexit. The intensity and persistence of such volatility would depend on the process by which Grexit occurred, and on the nature of the policy and political response to it in other Euro area countries.
Funding needs and repayment schedules for Greek sovereign debt
Summary:
- Greece owes EUR 315bn.
- There are three large blocks of officially held debt still outstanding: (1) the Greek loan facility (EUR 53bn, at EURIBOR+50bp, which matures from 2027 onwards); (2) EFSF / ESM loans (EUR 142bn disbursed, EUR 2bn committed; at EFSF funding plus small administrative fee, maturing in 30 years or after); and (3) IMF loans (EUR 20bn, maturing currently).
- There is also EUR 66bn of marketable debt outstanding, of which EUR 27bn is held by the ECB as a result of purchases under the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). There are EUR 15bn of outstanding Treasury bills. The remaining obligations are government and government-backed loans.
- Between 2016 and 2022, total debt servicing costs (both redemptions and interest payments) are small – between EUR 6 and EUR 10 bn.
- In 2015 financing requirements are more substantial. Core funding needs are about EUR 19bn. We have little information on available cash reserves.
- Key upcoming maturities are: (a) bonds held by the ECB in July and August (Table 2); (b) IMF loans in February and March of around EUR 3.5bn (Table 3); and (c) Treasury bills (most of which will be rolled by domestic banks, but a small portion of which are held by foreigners with a likely failure to roll resulting in a drain on government cash reserves).
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Yellen will buy it.
News out!...
...As the newly elected President of the Ukraine....I will replace all my Caucus with Female Tennis stars.
President Anna Kornikova
...and we will balance the budget by selling "calendars"...
http://jubileedebt.org.uk/reports-briefings/briefing/six-key-points-gree...
The 2012 private creditor write-down was a flawed solutionIn 2012, two years after the bailouts began, it was finally accepted that Greece needed some debts cancelling. An agreement was reached with many private creditors to cancel 50% of the debt owed to them. However, by this stage, the IMF, EU and ECB had been bailing out these reckless lenders for the previous two years, so many had already been repaid. None of the debts owed to the public institutions were included in the debt reduction.
Moreover, whilst the IMF, EU and ECB debts were excluded, debts owed to Greek banks and financial institutions, including pension funds, were not. The 50% debt reduction bankrupted these banks, so the Greek government borrowed more money from the IMF, EU and ECB to bailout the banks. The pension funds which lost large amounts were not refunded.
Finally, whilst a large majority of private creditors agreed to the debt reduction, various vulture funds refused to do so. These speculators bought up Greek debts owed under British law cheaply and have continued to demand to be paid in full. The total amount of ‘vulture fund’ debt which avoided the agreed restructuring was €6.5 billion. The Greek parliament passed legislation to enforce the agreed debt reduction on all bonds held under Greek law, but the British government refused to do the same. The vulture funds have continued to be paid, making a huge profit on the amount they bought the debt for. This was effectively profit being given to the vultures by the IMF, EU and ECB, which has left a debt for the Greek people.
Interesting info but 'whilst'? I haven't heard or read that word for years. Is it still in the dictionary?
Default little Greece.
Where is Deutsche Bank on these charts?
Wasn't the narrative that Deutsche Bank owns a majority of greek debt and therefore makes the german government pound the table against the poor greeks.
Seems none of that is true. How surprising.
So here is what I don't understand... The Greeks way over spent, living it up in the highlife in a socialist utopia. Now that the bills are coming due they are complaining?
Then again, how are they much different from the US? (18+ tril debt and an unpayable amount of future mandates)
They're no different from your everyday run of the mill junky. Neither they nor the dealer (lenders) are innocent or the good guy. For some reason, Americans are predisposed to finding the good guy. In most of real life, there is no good guy.
borrowing money isn't the problem if money borrowed was balanced by money saved. Then, the savers police debt and require interest rates to counterbalance risk. Greek would never have 300B+ in debt if this happened because savers would have begun to demand higher and higher rates...therefore discouraging debt.
but that's not what happens in our money-invented-via-debt banking systems. Artificially deflated rates incentivize excessive spending with little consequence...until one day. Then, it all blows up. Is the blow up date here for Greece? It sounds like it and looks like it...but I doubt it. In our world, banks rule...you drool. and until the day comes when banks stop ruling we will all continue down the Greece road.
Haircut my ass...when you're bankrupt, you give it all back and start over. Greece shouldn't argue for a haircut...they should hit the reset button and become a model for every other country.
If some...idiot decided to lend me say, a billion dollars, based on virtually no ability to pay said idiot back, and I take it, who is at fault?
Lender is at fault, takes the loss, gets liquidated. Borrower is also bankrupt. Who pays for that bad decision? The lender. The lender should know better.
My two cents..as that is about all I have.
Question: who are relevant counter parties and who has derivative exposure?
Derivative counterparties to ECB and EFSM debt?
There is no such thing, therefore your answer is meaningless.
"There is no such thing,"
Maybe technically, but....
If a derivative (such as a CDS) can be used to hedge a position (such as protection from a bond default), then since the debt is held by the ECB, it is De-facto "guaranteed" by the taxpayers.
So, in a broad sense, the European Taxpayers are the true counterparties to foolhardy risk assumed by the ECB.
Or, am I missing something here?
How interesting when a total default is in the cards THE NEXT DAY THEY MAGICALLY TROT OUT THE 50% deal - backed by cooing soothing words by Obama.
Greece grow a set of balls and do an Iceland.
Apparently Kfw (DEGov owned) is in for EUR15bn, Commerzbank EUR400m, DB EUR298m: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-eurozone-greece-banking-exposure-idUSKBN0KE16H20150105
I'd guess thats the private investment, the wider DE Gov is probably in for alot more, EUR119bn through the EFSF alone...
As I said, no Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank has already dumped it on the ECB
Greece will be like the people in the states who haven't made a mortgage payment in years but still live in the homes because the bank doesn't want to realize the loss.
It's a term used by Brits, not Americans.
The use of 'Whilst' is a common here in the UK.
not surprising you haven't heard it for years. listen to msm much.
whilst is a really cool word. And yes, it is still in the Concise Oxford English Dictionary: whilst - conj. & rel adv, chiefly Brit. while.
To bad you don't have a dictionary to check for yourself.
I find Alaric's post to be consistently high quality and well thought out and well written.
thank you for the excellent comment. one point, imho, is the most important out of the article:
"Between 2016 and 2022, total debt servicing costs (both redemptions and interest payments) are small – between EUR 6 and EUR 10 bn"
not bad for a debt over 300 bn, such a small service cost
it's not that it's small, greece is just excempt of paying it.
Q: When is Greece scheduled to start paying principal on the EFSF loans? A: Not until 2023. It also enjoys an interest deferral on most of the loan. The exception is a 35.5 billion-euro chunk that was paid to private investors in 2012 to persuade them to accept the restructuring. Because of the grace period already in place, any writedown on the debt held by the EFSF will have relatively little impact in easing the Greece’s debt-servicing costs over the next eight years.
The new Sports Illustrated Ukraine Honey-Bun Calendar Edition.
Who cares when it's due: https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2015/02/02/the-quickening-with-jim-...
Love me some Jim Willie! Thanks for the link.
Sadly, true... and the US taxpayers would probably never even know.
Yellen will buy it with your money
- there fixed it for you :)
Easily solved with euphemisms.
Greece will do what they've done time and time again, PUSH BACK! Just depends on which way they do it.
Greece should just take out a loan to pay back the loan that they took out to pay back their debt.
NIRP it right into the corn field!
Prosperity!
" Greece should just take out a loan to pay back the loan that they took out to pay back their debt."
The Greeks are getting very LOANLY...
They could simply rehypothicate their way out of this.
They should demand an incredibly huge loan (trillions or tens of trillions of euros) so that their problems become the troikas problems. Beat the bastards at their own game.
Yep. Is debt ever paid off? Nope. Just rolled over, extended, refinanced...
Just increase duration. Century bonds at 0.5% . Stick that on your books IMF... it's all mark to fantasy anyway. /nosarc
A century bond at -3% would be great for the borrower; hardly any principal left at 100 years.
--
Ah, we have at last uncovered Mr. Draghi's pseudonym on Zerohedge!!!!
There was an old woman who swallowed a fly.
how do you say Default in greek?? ans you never say it --it's in the treaty with EU..nien nien
"I will pay you next Tuesday." But in Greek.
don't mix up the talks about debt and the talks about treaties. the latter, are about balanced budgets
the ultimate fraudulent market....
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Todays chart shows pretty clearly how they're buying it in Hong Kong and selling it in London.
Who owns the Dominican Republic debt? Last year they borrowed 2.25 billion, last week they borrowed another $2.5 billion to pay off an old Venezuela fuel bill. Did anybody in DR get a free fill up?
And who is the pool of investors that invested in DR spent fuel debt bonds?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-20/dominican-republic-pla...
That's right, no one benefits from any of this but the top .01% free money connected types. Like Zoidberg from Futurama says 'HOORAY! Another happy ending for the rich people!'
Probably old people who are desperate for income on their savings. This debt reeks like dogshit.
See the complete and TOTAL propaganda in this article about Russia/Ukraine. It's a joke yet 99% of our country has NO IDEA whatsoever of what's going on there! We are dangerous and completely out of our minds!!
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/washington-post-raise-the-stakes-for-russia-to-deter-its-aggression-in-ukraine-379272.html
I know this was off topic but it enraged me when I read it late last night! We will get into a shooting match with Russia, send our mercenary soldiers over there, and our country dumb-ass citizens will have no FUCKING IDEA why we are there!! Given this we will still salute our "troops" and ask no questions! I for one am totally over it!
Long flags and yellow ribbons...
Long orange and black striped ribbons.
two questions come to mind. one, can the imf withstand that kind of loss? two, how much of that "5% private investors" is held by fidelity/calpers/tiaa-cref?
Debt schmebt....it's all about control.
Tick, tick ,tick .........
fucking default already and exit the euro system entirely. this is the eventual outcome anyways, the longer it's dragged out the more painful it will be.
this is the eventual outcome anyways
I'm not so sure.
The whole point of this charade is that as long as the loans are serviced - ie, not defaulted on - the institutions don't have to write them off against their capital... and any interest that gets paid is profit.
So I expect the Greeks to be offered lower rates and extended maturities. As long as there are no defaults the charade can continue.
laomei, no! That sort of sanity and common sense have no place in our global politics. /sarc
Confusion, complexity, and misrepresentation of facts all translate directly into more wealth and power for the 0.01%, and less wealth and power for the remaining 99.99% of humanity.
This will continue until the system collapses. The people will do very little to stop it for the same reason that so many abused wives stay with their abusive husbands - they are scared of change, scared of the unknown, and it's far easier to just ignore the problem, and/or pretend that it doesn't exist.
Global events truly are the result of the aggregate dominant characteristics of the entire global population. The actions that you are describing would take place on a world in which the majority of the people had higher levels of intelligence, courage, and integrity. They, having the capacity to understand their situation, the integrity to be on the side of fairness, and the courage to acknowledge and subsequently act when injustice emerged (in this case by removing the corrupt "leaders", and creating an entirely new set of rules by which society as a whole would function - rules centered around individual liberty and fairness), would ensure that they and others were treated fairly.
Unfortunately, the majority of people on this planet are lacking in those characteristics. What you see happening around the world is not caused by a few bad apples who've risen to power, but rather is simply the inevitable manifestation of the aggregate dominant characteristics of the majority of the global population. /rambling
how much do they own to Russians already? Can Putin explode both ukies and greeks at the same time... it will be fireworks and popcorn after that
New Greek Minister of Defense in Moscow as we speak. No doubt talking about Naval Port, mutual defense and anything else to thwart another German/NATO invasion after default. Remember failed invasion of Crete by Hitler ? It was beginning of war in Europe.
"Greece should just take out a loan to pay back the loan that they took out to pay back their debt."
I smell a $315 billion dollar coin.....
Good morning, Dr. Krugman!
Now we begin to see the tears and who will get them....I would be happy if i was a bond holder that was due this month....take it and run..if they pay...
At some point it would be a fully appropriate response for Greece to send these payment-demanding emmissaries back to Germany in several hundred separate packages.
Economics... haha-ha, that's a good one! Or or... it might as well be politics rather than than... Zeus wearing Björn Borg underwear. Right?
"Who is your daddy...and what does he do?"
-Kindergarten Cop.
http://imgur.com/gallery/XtHQKml
Big Refi coming at 11th hour with Hair Cuts - Extend and pretend
A 30 year interest only loan at 2% NIRP should do it.... they might have to pay the squid a couple of points up front though
This can't be F'n happening man. This can't be happening.
The question to ask, has the debt been repaid?
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car031512b.htm
Name one government which is financially responsible. They are like kids or addicts with credit cards. The USA constantly borrows to keep up with its lifestyle, instead of firing a civil service and military it doesn't need.
Sadly US foreign policy means she probably needs an above average sized military.
Just did a quick check of debt to GDP using that figure with 2014 GDP, and it came out to 130.7%
Not the purported ~175% of GDP.
Too lazy to check for you. You can find out yourself.
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=joint-external-debt-hub
Upcoming maturities
(a) bonds held by the ECB in July and August;
(b) IMF loans in February and March;
(c) Treasury bills
these debts can be written-off without hesitation. This 'money' appeared directly out of thin air and it's high time to get it vanished back into it. Well, perhaps except for the treasury bills held by foreigners.
The EU country club patrons are not adhering to the minimum debt food meal requirements.
Exactly, this was all just counterfeit money laundered through greece into private hands.
GS: "yackety ya". "we do not know either".
Gold being ripped down for the last time ?
Keep buying it, why complain? Unless you are a paper Gold holder. Then you deserve what's coming your way. :)
"Keep buying it, why complain? Unless you are a paper Gold holder. Then you deserve what's coming your way. :)"
Stacking for real, paper for fun.
Wanta know who owns the debt to countries like Greece?
Look in the mirror, it is that bozo.
Even better is the bozo does not even know that he is on the hook.....
Once you peel off the layers of deception, it is always the bozo in the mirror.
At some point, our civilization needs to understand that it should be forbidden, absolutely forbidden, for governments to borrow money in order to spend. I am guessing we never learn this lesson.
That lesson can only be learned when you have eliminated the bankers.
Wrong! People just might want to take more than 1 minute to consider the people who & why they vote for and just exactly how 'enlightened' they are! The 'bankers' are mere messengers or conduits satisfying the whims and visions of the fearless elected visionaries! Keynsian masterminding has overwhlemed the global credit and currency markets in a dangerous and reckless race to the black hole bottom! Greece is but the beginning of what will be an implosion of feckless government mismangement! They will try to pin the tail on the 'greedy' bankers too!
Yancey,Who are we that need to learn this lesson??? Civilization that you speak of has nothing to do with this other than to accept what our handlers are deciding for us. That's the lesson to learn here; you are welcome.
It was understood, and absolutely forbidden.
It's right there in the constitution.
It just got ignored.
(duct tape anyone? My head seems to have exploded)
+ 1trillion
Impasse.
ClusterFuken , oder?
fahrvnutgpayen: An unpleasurable debt writeoff experience.
I believe that Europe and the USA are worried about Russia encouraging Greece to default and then backing her with cash and cheap oil in return for.....maybe a port or two?
If it was offered a trasde is a trade and alot more than you are going to get from the Troika.
Seeing as Greeece has no trading partners being economically trashed through policy +1 even if Russian is a big change.
where is that damn can?...get me a new can to kick.. NOW!
LOL. The whole world is kicking one can or another.
Soon the can will be replaced with a bucket.
The Good News: It doesn't matter!...
The Bad News: Germany is totally controlled by the MIC that owns their asses in Munich, Ramstein, Stuttgart and Berlin and Russia ain't fuckin around with the outcome anymore whether they play nice or not!!!
Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.
Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.
Only if the German people say Nein to 70 years of occupation!...
Otherwise they will become the fodder that Washington always had in mind in the "playbook" when the fiat doesn't work anymore!
By the way....
How does one say "No" in Ukrainian?...
George Soros and the NGO camp must be absolutely ecstatic with the outcome they've created!
Germany and the German people were scheduled for destruction even earlier than 70 years ago.
Germany and the German people were scheduled for destruction even earlier than 70 years ago.
As it will also be a self-fulfilling prophecy for peoples of North America when all gets said and done!
Here's to the tumultuous ride we created for ourselves over the past 70 years that was a total waste!!!
Thanks for the excellent read. At least this didn't wind up in that Russian library that got burned to the ground last Saturday that had information on the witnesses that were involved in the liberation of Auschwitz and Poland's involvement with the German Army along with lots and lots of other "neat stuff"!
Yes, that "accidental" fire elicited a cynical smile from me. But there's still more than enough information out there to show the Official Narrative to be at best a grotesque exaggeration.
Yes, that "accidental" fire elicited a cynical smile from me.
Well let's face it MB!...
The Western banking establishment certainly has perfected their "shredding techniques"... Especially that 47 story one in lower Manhattan that housed all those important documents with "renters" that were both commercial as well as federal that were in bed together!
Here's the successful arsonist to tell you how much insurance he collected on it when it met "foul play"!
All this debt don't matter, Bernanke and Krugman proved that. Just print the money until the bottom. Which won't be felt for long because you people DO know Europe - as opposed to US and UK - retains a solid manufacturing/exporting base which will put the floor under 'currency debasement' soon enough?
You see there is a limit to exporting corrupt economic ideas to a continent that has seen many more of them tried, tested and turded ages ago.
Wait for it...Debt is the new "Status Symbol"
It's COOL to be Greek because if you owe enough, you OWN enough!
Solution simple------raise price of olives and charge a deposit for olive pits. Also, retain Monsanto to develop GMO pink olives and charge double the price . Lots of customers in France and California.
The US is the largest funder of the IMF. If Greece defaults on its IMF loans this summer, the American taxpayer is on the hook.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pdfs/pr10418_table.pdf
Correct!
Hahaha – We create debt, i.e., Ledger Credit Page Entry money, out of thin air. We make goyim pay back with blood and soil. Goldman deceptively arranged Greece entry into EU. Now we use our kosher media to baffle goyim with BS and continue with our planned destruction. Much more to come. Oy Vey!!!
Shush! Don't give the game away. One day, the goyim may learn to read.
Haha you make funny. You don't worry. We have goyim too afraid to say what problem is. They gladly lay down and lick master's boots. Fear being called anti-semite or racist makes kosher elephant invisible. We make goyim minds kosher with tv. We turn white males into yentas - gornisht helfen!
The real question is...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLl0DVzRksk
the real answer is: oyk an laveis para toy mh exontos,it was answered about 1800 years ago : ).
Where is Bono when you need him?
If Detroit can do it, why not Greece?
Who cares, private banksters are behind everything. That's all we need to know.
... the ECB becomes a corresponding Fed in the European area, “serving” the problematic economies that are excluded from the bond markets, through the print of new money. Therefore, the problematic economies will be loaded with more and more debt which the ECB, i.e. the largest private European banks will hold.
An example of how the banking cartels control countries, the Greek caseWhy can't Goldman just do another "Swap" ? Their original "Swap" with Greece was the one that provided the required obfuscation of Greece's balance sheet in order to join the Euro.
Why can't they just do that again? The IMF don't care.
We’re talking about a crisis between the banks and the people and the explanations and the reporting are coming from the bankers.
Our reports yesterday and today on the Greek picture have originated from Bloomberg, the Financial Times, The Economist and Goldman Sachs. No mention here of the people’s viewpoint.
Would these banker sources lie? You betcha.
Good point....
Greek Bonds aren't totally worthless, I mean, you can sell them on eBay as curios....
Let Greece print their own fake money like everyone else.
Not all counterfeit is created equal.
If a debt can't be paid, it won't be paid.
Bail ins are the plan. That and some asset confiscations from the little people. Thats the new MMT.
Goldman Sachs took Greece for a ride many times previous,re.swaps and other derivatives, and not shown the best, or any, interests of the client.
Now the reader is expected to trust any information presently produced,for public consumption,from Goldman Sachs ?
Recap, article from a few years ago:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-06/goldman-secret-greece-...
If I can't make my house payments why can't I ask the bank to "swap" the loan for one with better terms too?
Because I am held to a different standard than those with political power. I face real consequences for my actions, while we face real consequences for their actions.
If I discovered any of the funds I own had exposure to Greek debt I would sell immediately! (Not that I am long any bonds)!
how come cnbc can plagiarise Citi's numbers live on air?
anyway, how to solve the Greek debt crisis.
use political and economic leverage to grab financial market leverage.
the greek central bank should takea leaf out of the Bank of Japan's direct intervention in goal stock markets (5bn last month) and line up massive, huge, gimongous bets on stock markets and get the finance minister to say "we'll play along with the troika" then line up massive, huge, gimongous bets to seel markets (take profits on longs and set up equal shorts on markets) and tell the finance minister to say "there is no alternative, we have to default".
rinse and repeat until the Greeks have the largest reserves per capita of any country in the world and then start giving central bank advice
:)
just saying
Greece should just declare bankruptcy and start with a clean slate. If debt collectors come knocking, offer them the individuals who took out the loans.
Greek islands are nice - sell a few to Davos men for their bug-out locations
The entire Eurozone is exposed to Athens for €195 billion:
Germany lead the group with €60 billion and France with €46 billion.
Overall, the country has €322 billion of debt, only 17% held by private entities
(google trans from Italian) http://tinyurl.com/lx9mk2c
ORG http://www.repubblica.it/economia/2015/01/25/news/grecia_italia_terzo_creditore_con_40_miliardi_di_prestiti-105761410/
Evidently not all Greeks are broke.
http://news.yahoo.com/greek-forced-surrender-500-000-euros-cyprus-custom...