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Baltic Dry Down 90% Of Days Since Cramer "Stressed Its Importance"; Crashes To New 29-Year Low
And the collapse just keeps going... since Thanksgiving, The Baltic Dry has fallen on 43 or the 47 days, down over 60% from the "China growth is back and all-is-well" hope-filled days of late October (when Jim Cramer "stressed the importance of watching the Baltic Dry Freight Index," as his bullish thesis confirmation). At 569, The Baltic Dry is inching ever closer to what will be the lowest level ever (554 on 7/31/1986) for the global shipping cost indicator...
One or two more days like this and it will be the all-time low...
click image for video explanation...
Jim Cramer shares insight on the latest economic data out of China and stresses the importance of focusing on the nation's baltic freight data. There was a significant jump in baltic freight and copper is strengthening too.
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Nailed it!!!!!
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Cramer shoots blanks.
Then he has less to fear from frivorcing women, and gold-digging partners... lucky man.
Watta pile of steaming horseshit that shill is
You're right.
To see this "Steaming Pile" go here:
http://dilbert.com/strip/2015-02-02
Umm, how come the stock market overlayed on that graph doesn't correlate?
"Crapper and my balls are dry strengthening?" WTF Jimbo?
It's very, very dry...and no lube in sight
"The patient is on life support, Doctor."
It has went from the Baltic Dry to the Baltic Dust...
Indeed he is. I laughed the other day when he was standing next to the shak shak guys on the day they IPOd, thinking that about the only person that aside from gartman, they were probably standing next to the worst omen in all of the world. Sure enough, look at what's happened to their stock since then. So predictable, yet still hilarious.
the index means NOTHING... we are past the shadows of Badness and into a Fucking Full Tilt OUT OF CONTROL RECOVERY!!!!! (MELTDOWN) it's going to be like Riding inside a F5 Tornado soon!!!!!!
Topped off with a Fuk U Shima and a tsunami
It says global deflation.
Strange how containers index is rising.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Year1&&dataT...
Isn't that an index of shipping rates? Wouldn't rates rise as shipping volume dries up?
Shipping volume is the level of demand for shipping. As demand falls relative to supply, the price it brings in the open market falls with it. Econ 101.
That is why the Dry Baltic Price Index is a proxy for shipping activity.
wonder if the Baltics dry index
takes into consideration
all the bullion hauled around
by the zero hedge boating with bullion armada ...
There's more Chinese ships offshore then a man can count, packed to the gills with dresses, shirts, sweaters, and trillions of other mass produced "Hecho en China" textiles.
The aisles of stores are flooded with this stuff also.
I'm looking forward to $2 sweaters and $9 sneakers in the near future.
How do they keep the stuff from smelling locked up all those months, I don't know.
"As demand falls relative to supply, the price it brings in the open market falls with it."
Sad that you need to explain that on ZH.
How come this magic doesn't doesn't work on PM prices?
PMs are quite easy to manipulate, BDI not so much ? although I imagine if they really focused on it they could create some new illusions ? shouldn't give any ideas , Hey ?
Look at the ten year Harpex.
Housing starts.
Really? Why don't you take a look at the 10 year picture. It's hardly moving in that view. Funny how statistics can be manipulated when the axis is tiny vs large.
The ten year picture sucks...
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years10&&dat...
May of 2010 the BDI opened at 4187. Today it closed at 569.
+1 end.....of......story
BDIY is fine
Don't take your money out of the BDIY...
Oh, wait, is that Bear Stearns?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6u1kG7yuy4
praps - mikpaq is correct.....the harpex is a measure of output of manufacturing, while baltic is a measure of input. baltic tends to be a good leading indicator, while harpex is coincident or lagging.
even at that, the harpex (on the 10 year view) dropped like a rock into the 2009 malaise, tried to recover, and is back down near that low again. with harpex that low and baltic dropping hard in a few months, one would surmise that world gdp is in trouble.
Spot on. Up voted you.
Surmise ...... You can bet your sweet Bipi that we are all over brought, in debt and Tapped out. All except the QE boys that is.
Seriously, who is upvoting this, or, do I completely not understand what he is saying? The 10y looks like a camel fell down a sand dune.
HARPEX is rising because extra hulls are either laying up or going to scrap. Over capacity will remain though because shippers need to maintain schedules. The US has just enacted new rules that require vessels to burn Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel while running coastwise and as most vessels were not designed to run on this fuel, it will require speed reductions or the vessels will sooner or later break down thus to maintain schedule a few extra ships will be needed. The drafts in post Panamax containerships should be running in the 38 to 42 foot range but are typically running at 31 to 35 feet. Figure 1200 tons per inch immersion and multily that by 15 (typical weight of a container) is pretty easy to see that the shippers are still having a hard time.
We are seeing a lot of ships (bulkers) leaving with no orders, and the sentiment is that the industry is in a down turn. There is a real over capacity of bulk vessels from the pre crash and early "recovery" period however, that is not bullshit.
The BDI collapse in and of it's self is not to distressing given its sucked for a number years and there really is over capacity, but the lack of cargoes is the real alarm. Overcapacity is one thing, Lack of anything to ship, now we got a problem.
interesting comment and details. Seems BDI has been off about the same amount of time we have been in the so-called recovery ?
Yahweh please forgive my sins - Cat and BDI are old economy, whatever is up BIG = new economy...
Blame 3D printers.
PMO came after GMO. plus automated tellers at food banks.
Maybe I could write Obozo's speeches, that total gibberish makes more sense than his.
3D printers. right. good one.
here, let me print up a bridge to sell you.
Can I have you ship that bridge to me?
Cramer to tell us just how irrelevant baltic dry is in 3...2..1...
Got to love Cramer. He really is such a dick.
Bite the pillow, I'm going in Baltic Dry - Cramer
Idiot.
Energizer Bunny® - Darth Vader - 1994 Commercial
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxafIhYFOr0 (0:30)
29 years? That's the last time oil production peaked in the US :)
Ssssssshhhhhh!
Yep. The next wave of manufacturing will undoubtedly be much simpler. The financialization of everything from diapers to sugar will reap a massive toll.
We are going to need blacksmiths and ferriers when this sucker settles.
Anyone who thinks this index can avoid the lower low trend to 499, should go into drydock for repairs.
Is he still smelling bottoms?
Yes, because he smells himself like bottom.
No, but there is quite of cluster of dingleberries hanging off his face
Thank god 1987 was an excellent year for stocks.
I watched him once for about 5 minutes years ago.
He struck me as a spastic gabbering clown (not the funny kind) I guess his 6 or 7 veiwers are mesmerized by his bellowing bullshit!
He talks to himself for 2 hours a day on cnbc, it's a riot for sure, economic replays from yesterdays drug deals.
so what if the rest of the world is in recession. We've decoupled. We're autonomous. We're freaking booming. I've got green shoots growing up the side of my house, infesting my garden, and taking over the lawn. I'm up to my eye balls in growth opportunities.
I guess we finally ran out of jobs to ship overseas........
Schiff and Martenson predicted $200 oil by 2015.
All these talking heads are idiots.
Yep.
"And in even better news they have real money backing up that bs."
Liquidity drying up fast folks!
Hurry up and catch that falling knife!
Careful. A hot war in the ME involving SA and we'll hit that within minutes.
A lot of very bad people with very bad weapons are very, very pissed with each other.
still have 11 more months to go in 2015. :-)
Trailer Park guy calls cramer, Cramer sayz get out of your Energy MLP's (sorry about your 50-90% haircut) but nows the time to go long BIOtech! because i'm an expert at everything! and a sleazy kike but you didn't read the disclaimer!
Yeah, that's going to zero too.
Only need a six month chart to see that.
dry powder, the index is dry, this is the indicator that cannot be manipulated
Jim is one of Harvard's best.
I always forget about the BDI, and Cramer too.
It's bad luck to use the number 29 in contemporary economic reporting.
Maybe they can convert these empty ships to housing for the traders he's helping to make homeless.
I wouldn't rule out $140/bbl oil. A "terrorist" attack on a major Saudi oil facility/port should do the trick. Maybe even with weapons supplied by Russia (denied of course).
We're headed towards what I am defining as a SNAP DEPRESSION. Within the next 6 months, it will all collapse. Nobody needs anything but food and a roof. Way too much silly shit in the economy that is useless.
No, the snap you refer to is only the 'recognition'. It's going to hell right now. The 'snap' will be when CNN announces 'the economy collapsed overnight' at 6am.
Predicting the future is not that hard.
my rule is to imagine this
How Can They Fuck Us?
All you have to do is look at any scenario and imagine how they could possibly fuck us. This one is easy. Crash oil prices, destroy oil producers to create a new shortage and then nail our asses to the wall with massively high prices. Meanwhile to government loves it as it helps demonize private industry, makes oil even more unaffordable and destroys ore of our economy fostering even greater dependence upon government's powers of redistribution.
See, it not hard.
Baghdad Bob trophy winner. Please don't put this guy on the site again unless he actually admits he was just out of his mind on drugs and wants to apologize.
Fuel is the largest voyage dependent cost and moves with the crude oil price. In periods where fuel costs fluctuate significantly, the BDI will move more than the shipowners' realised earnings.
Ya'll don't understand Cramerology.
When an indicator is looking good it's useful and worth mentioning.
When it's looking bad it's 'not' useful and 'not' worth mentioning.
Rule #3: Substitute the bad for something that appears to be better. Or lie.
Rule #4: don't bring the subject up again until it meets the condtions of parameter 1. For example, the index could keep plunging but say six months from now it might rise 10% so then it could be used as a short-term buy! buy! buy! signal. This will be graphed without showing the downside and will be a 1/1000 scale to make the move look monstrous.
Rule #5: Keep the muppets continually confused by talking about a dozen different opportunities on a daily basis.
Maybe he read about the bltic on ZH?
narrative fail alert, narrative fail alert, sb put Gartman on stage ASAP please
or ponzionomics will fail miserably
I wish they'd make all clairvoyant financical types wear a wizard hat and gaze into a crystal ball when they make their predictions. "Next on CNBC! Madame Hoodoo will use REAL gecko livers to fortell Berkshire's rise to $3,033 per share!"
...and yet they keep foretelling.
....and they could shuffle the CNBC fortellings with old reruns of Julia Childs!
Madame Hoodoo will inspect the chicken entrails, while Julia will shout "save the liver".
what?! no cool pictures of ships shipping ships? tylers..c'mon. slap that fancy one up you had a few days ago. bummer
Cramer's job is to obfuscte, distract, pump and above all protect the Tribe.
Remember after the 2008 crash he went on TV and said "Remember the Weimar... We must push a positive image..."
Wouldnt it be great if they had a cash for clunkers program? Trade in your old row boat, and they will sell you a ship with nothing down and 20 years to pay it off. Estimated payments $120 a month.
And with gas so cheap, the sky is the limit!!
With a little work you could turn it into a crude (pun intended) cruise ship!
Wait until the BDI goes negative as a result of owners scuttling their idle ships hoping to collect insurance...
Cramer is a member of the tribe spouting the tribal narrative. His only tasks are to lie, deceive, to sow chaos and confusion. This is his job. This is what he is paid to do.
Lying, cheating, stealing and worse is what the Tribe does! It's in their Satanic DNA!
Jimahh-Jimmah... Someone give that little troglodyte a pair of crutches.
Hows that Mexican property working out Jimahh? I love the smell of Mexican Pesos roasting in the morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU
Huh, just occurred to me this dill is being referred to by the host as "Cramer". As in Seinfeld's Cosmo Kramer.
How life imitates art.
When there is blood in the streets...
And...it's gone.
The left and right side of the graph, divided by Jan 2009 is very different. It shouldn't look like it does. Something is wrong.
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You guys should try to lay off on ol' Jim. It's just too easy!
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V-V
I haven't seen one yet, which is surprising. But just in case nobody has taken the opportunity yet, someone should write an article about Cramer and foot-in-mouth disease. I'm sure they'll find endless hilarious examples in the last decade or so.
We have still not reached the "fear" or "capitulation" stage.... or have we? I guess the canary is really dead.
Maybe the Federal Reserve could have empty cargo ships traveling the sea to manipulate this metric?
Waiting for the day Cramer comes on and admits the markets are all manipulated and no one can analyze shit anymore--BUY GOLD and walks off....