Goldman Cuts January Payrolls Forecast From 250K to 210K

First it was the ADP private payrolls report which printed the lowest monthly number since September and the explicit statement that  "Businesses in the energy and supplying industries are already scaling back payrolls in reaction to the collapse in oil prices, while industries benefiting from the lower prices have been slower to increase their hiring." Then it was the (just as unreliable) Non-mfg ISM report which carried with it the weakest employment number since February 2014. Put all this together, and finally the crude capex collapse is starting to manifest itself in some unambiguously good, pardon, bad consequences implications for the economy, which will most likely become quite visible this Friday, when the January payrolls report hits. A report which Goldman just became 16% more bearish on when it cut its January payrolls forecast from 250K to 210K.

From Goldman:

The ISM nonmanufacturing index ticked up slightly to 56.7 in January (vs. consensus 56.4), from 56.5 in December. Components were mixed, as business activity rose (+2.9pt to 61.5), new orders edged up a bit (+0.3pt to 59.5), and employment worsened (-4.1pt to 51.6). New export orders—not a component of the headline index—declined one point to 52.5, consistent with the softening in export orders seen in the January ISM manufacturing survey. Prices paid declined, likely due to lower commodity prices (-4.3pt to 45.5). Commentary in the release remained broadly positive, except for the oil industry.

Mainly due to the weaker employment component of the ISM nonmanufacturing index, we reduced our forecast for January nonfarm payroll employment growth to 210k, from 250k previously.

Expect the rest of the sell-side penguins to scramble and do the same in the coming minutes.

Comments

[101 years and c...]

goldman cuts payrolls forecast.  says, "we just killed at least 40K jobs in January and were able to increase our bonus payouts by an average of 650K per muppet slayer".

[LawsofPhysics]

Bingo.  This is what the world now accepts as a "successful business model".

Remind me, what actual products of real value do these useless fucking paper-pushers produce again?

[monad]

Instead of looting, they pretend to work. Thats politics.

[disabledvet]

And that's why we call it a forecast!

Hahahahahaha on you!

[Creepy A. Cracker]

It's been a little cool out lately.

Weather's FAULT!!!!

</s>

[FieldingMellish]

Sell-side penguins....

[Sudden Debt]

I think they could sell it better. 

Like: PAYROLL FORECAST JUMPS TO 210K FROM 25K!!

nobody remembers the old last week forecasts anyway and the robo’s love that kind of talk

[henry chucho]

Take the "K" off the end of the number,and the 210 jobs created would be believeable..

[SheepDog-One]

I know, right? Who the fuck actually believes this crap that around a quarter million new jobs are popping up each month? Ridiculous.

[dcau1]

So Goldman revised one meaningless fake juiced-up number to another meaningless fake juiced-up number. Good job.

[buzzsaw99]

There Can Be Only One (%)

[asscannon101]

 But this is a RECOVERY, dammit!! Do the fucking math again!!

[FABBAS]

MY FORECAST FOR JANUARY PAYROLL 115K

[lordylord]

Untill it's revised to 80K

[autofixer]

Goldman? Didn't they invest in Chelsea's husband's crony hedge fund?  They are good.  

[monopoly]

Zero Hedge is more than kind calling the sell side "penguins". I always have called them "Dead Fish". Useless group of idiots.

[42]

Who knows what the definition of a job is ? Is it normalized to FullTime Equivalent ? Or, as I suspect, is a job of '1 hour a week' as much of a job as '80 hours per week' ?

Going further, how can one estimate the buying power of all these 'jobs' in total ? Because that buying power is what drives economy, not 'number of jobs'. Right ?

[SheepDog-One]

AH....so the number is around 260K then, since we know GS's Clarence Beeks has already seen (written) the report.