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Massive Crude Inventory Build Sends WTI Crude Plunging Back Towards $50

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Against Reuters expectations of a 3.25 million barrel build, DOE reports a 6.3 million barrel build... Just 24 hours after Jim Cramer proclaimed, "this smells like a bottom" in crude oil, the crucial commodity (though it is unclear whether lower oil is good or bad today for now) appears to have flushed a few weak hands in a 3-day squeeze and 1430ET ramp-fest as price reasserts to the 'fundamentals' of over-supply and under-demand. WTI has plunged from over $54 at the NYMEX close yesterday to around $50 this morning...

WTI Crude is down almost 10% from yesterday's highs...

 

"Smells like something" for sure...

As the inventory build continues for a 4th week...

 

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Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:36 | 5743004 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Gotta build those war inventories

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:39 | 5743012 yrad
yrad's picture

Black silver?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:39 | 5743017 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Dow's bouncing around all over the place - see those algos go!

DavidC

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:39 | 5743019 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Smells like rotten burger and fries. Right Cramer?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:41 | 5743026 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Cramers resume list him as an expert bottom sniffer

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:38 | 5743021 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I'll go out on a limb and predict an even hundred sucker rallies over the next 6 months. 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:41 | 5743024 Unix
Unix's picture

You are too modest!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:52 | 5743067 FrankieGoesToHo...
FrankieGoesToHollywood's picture

Thats alot of up days since there is about 120 trading days in the next 6 months.  Infact thats a monster bull call!  balls.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:40 | 5743022 Unix
Unix's picture

Cramer, bwahahahahahaha, evil mad stawk crotcher! The mad hatter in the casino...I wonder who's bottom he really smells? Is it LIESman's?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:42 | 5743034 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Cramer "smells like a bottom" because he is always out there kissing TPTB's asses. 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:43 | 5743035 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Cramer. The mere fact that he isn't in prison right now points to the sheer corrupt nature of this nation.

From the top-down, it's nothing but a shyster shit-show here in The States.

Jim Cramer wouldn't know a bottom if it came to him with 1000 cocks up its ass.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:41 | 5743283 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I always loved that song Marakesh Express.

 

Something about Cramer selling his wares off a Camel....

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:44 | 5743038 Gilnut
Gilnut's picture

No surprise.  Wonder how much Muppet Roadkill there was on this one.  LOL

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:45 | 5743044 Crazy Canuck
Crazy Canuck's picture

Cramer is a bottom - he's used a a spunk dump by all of his bankster masters

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:16 | 5743167 maskone909
maskone909's picture

"Old spunkers" lmfao

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:50 | 5743058 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

and about those rising gas prices ...

"Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range."

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:49 | 5743063 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

CNBC, Oil prices dropping is good for the economy, Oil prices rising is good for the enomomy, how about now? stil good?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:44 | 5743291 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Ask all those NYMEX traders who bought Goldman's trading positions.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:50 | 5743066 I woke up
I woke up's picture

DOE cooking the numbers to get the result of the highlighted Saudi article?  Who's validating the numbers they give?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:49 | 5743313 Yao
Yao's picture

The numbers are probably real: residual production ramp in US shale, strike at 10% of the nation's refineries and, IIRC, some seasonal refinery downtime.  

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:52 | 5743068 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

80 years ain't so long ...

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 6.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 413.1 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least
the last 80 years"

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:12 | 5743149 Ghost Writer
Ghost Writer's picture

True - but we are using oil at a rate significantly greater than 80 years ago.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:56 | 5743074 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

This smells of a sneaky release from the SPR to me.  Nothing would surprise me on what these crooks will do to manage prices.  That plus demand is cratering due to a sick economy.  Plus the NE being paralyzed by storm fear

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 11:57 | 5743081 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

But wait....I thought oversupply of oil was what supposedly brought prices DOWN...(you know  supply-and-demand).    Now we are being told that a big spike in supply signals an upturn!!

Oh my goodness....could this mean something other than good old American supply-and-demand is at work here.....(say it isn't so).

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:00 | 5743092 nakki
nakki's picture

I've always loved the numbers that come out either way when it comes to crude inventories. The US uses 18-19 million barrels of oil per day, 6 million up or down represents 8 hours of use. Chart looks like a lot of noise over a 2 year period. 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 13:14 | 5743294 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Great point.

That MASSIVE noise is just JUMBO shrimp

Smells like "Napalm in the morning" to me.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:00 | 5743097 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Imports higher year over year.  Interesting.

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:02 | 5743105 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

I bought UCO when oil was around $45 to $46 a barrel.  I made a 15% gain in TWO WEEKS, or about 390% annualized.  Sold it yesterday when oil was around $52.  This is an inverse ETF leveraged that shoots up when oil prices rise.  Make money on these crazy ass ramps up and down!

 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:07 | 5743130 Ghost Writer
Ghost Writer's picture

With the crap Cramer spews everything smells like a bottom.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:33 | 5743232 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cramhole has his nose up someone's ass all day and nite no doubt.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:09 | 5743139 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

After looking at the numbers its pretty apparent it was +90% demand destruction as imports and production were pretty flat to down.  The weather appears to be the culprit for a bunch of it still not ruling out some SPR leakage.  Gas prices here is south central KS. are up $.40 gallon in 4 days. 

 

Weekly Petroleum Status Report EIA

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:14 | 5743165 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bull trap! Got em.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:18 | 5743180 walküre
walküre's picture

Striking refineries create more inventory in crude. Surprise! /not

The whole spin narrative they tried putting on this oil jump by 20% in a 4 days was bullshit and everyone knew it too.

Fundamentals on oil suck and there's no QE.

Down it goes.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:37 | 5743227 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Jim Cramhole- 'This smells like a bottom!'
LOL, you're truly king of the ass hats Jim!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:42 | 5743286 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Meanwhile Gas goes up at the PUMP those FUCKING REFINERS.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:47 | 5743303 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Thats not price collusion...that's Capitalism!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:50 | 5743312 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

"Ye put yer left leg in, yer left leg out........................."

Pick a number, any number ye like...................................

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 12:56 | 5743341 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

This time it is Russia perhaps. What Saudis started Russia will complete.

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 13:24 | 5743512 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Butt, butt, the strike, the high demand, trouble in the Mid East, PEAK OIL !!!

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 13:26 | 5743520 db51
db51's picture

NOtice the NWS came out with their Spring Planting Weather Forecast and Summer Growing conditions.    EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!  Early spring....perfect summer.    Yesterday's little recovery in grains reversed.  Mission Accomplished.

Fuck these assholes.    It's time to park the fucking tractor and get an EBT Card.  Nothing like "imaginary inventory" of unplanted crops to add to "inventory".   Totally FUBAR.

 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 13:32 | 5743543 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Note the big seasonal difference in December through February of last year (big inventory declines) - vefsus this year (big inventory builds). 

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 13:55 | 5743656 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Well apotted Jose. I wonder how things will look in Feb/March when the inventory increased last year. They must be running out of containers soon. Then what?

Wed, 02/04/2015 - 15:30 | 5744021 permarig
permarig's picture

From above:
DOE cooking the numbers to get the result of the highlighted Saudi article?  Who's validating the numbers they give?

The numbers are probably real: residual production ramp in US shale, strike at 10% of the nation's refineries and, IIRC, some seasonal refinery downtime.

 

But yes, at this point, it's probably fair to assume, that numbers might be cooked to some degree to provide the basis for narratives explaining market moves and trends. It must be great to have control over the numbers, it probably means less need for coordination as the rest just works i.e. propagandist can just do what they do, regurgitate the narrative.

Remember that farce last year around a piece of economic data that had been "corrected" after the "market" reacted by selling off initially?

Expanding on this tinfoil angle a bit, one could even ponder about to what extent the QE stuff that has been coming out recently is even real, be the divergence from the real situation positive or negative.
Or is it just a series of stunts to provide the cover while the machines are doing the pumping. It must be great if you're big on a trend and then some important guy comes out and leads a further push in your favor. You might be even able to cash out to some new guys that are coming in to join the party train, right.
And then come the hopeful, reassuring or threatening soundbites on the newswires if the scheme starts to seemingly wobble a bit.
Like how the second most important central bank would engage QE after a several months of planning and with an army of PHDs researching the balances of the largest economic zone is to leak a number to the media and then put another 10 billion on top of it the next day.

As for oil and the Saudis now seemingly receiving blames in the media, also consider being vary of the bankers wanting to come out clean of this episode. There're pieces of evidence scattered everywhere how they've a grip on "markets" and can rig them until it's beyond comical.
There were probably too many longs in the oil market anyway, so they started out working with the flows from that unwinding and then the Saudis got the spotlight with "Why should we cut?" type soundbites and the OPEC indecision.
In that sense the role of the Saudis was actually not much more than to agree to do nothing while much of the heavy lifting might have been done by HFT momentuming down the prices the whole time.

Let me throw in this funny chart also to remember how stocks and oil plunged together from Oct 1 until central bankers came to the rescue and thus investors got a collective spark to switch their oil correlation from bearish to bullish in all unriggedness.

https://twitter.com/toorigged14/status/559229787223642112

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