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Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Greek situation summaries Greece by Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos have consistently been among the best in the entire sellside. His latest Greek update, which is a must read for anyone who hasn't been following the fluid developments out of southeast Europe, which fluctuate not on an hourly but on a minute basis, does not disappoint.

But while his summary of events is great, what is of far greater significance is his conclusion, namely that ultimately Europe will fold: "we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program" and "given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks."

If DB is right, and if Europe folds, the question then is what concessions will the ECB and the Eurozone be prepared to give to Italy, Spain and all the other nations where anti-European sentiment has been on a tear in recent months, and especially in the aftermath of Syriza's stunning victory.

From Deutsche Bank

Greek Update

Over the last couple of weeks we have framed developments in Greece around three questions:

First, under what conditions would the Troika be willing to continue negotiating with Greece?

Second, does the Greek government accept these conditions?

Third, how does the ECB link Greek bank financing to program negotiation?

Yesterday evening we got an answer to the last question sooner than expected. The ECB no longer considers Greece to be under a program, and the rating waivers on Greek government-based collateral are being removed. We estimate that Greek bank funding at the ECB financing windows currently runs between 70-80bn EUR, of which approximately 30bn relies on AAA EFSF-based collateral. As a result the remaining funding (or about 50bn) will now have to shift to ELA from next week. Even if this decision is likely to have materialized when the program expired at the end of February, there are two broader implications.

First, the decision shows that the ECB is feeling increasingly uncomfortable providing financing to Greek banks while negotiations are under way. This in turn raises the more important question of how long and how large any ELA provision is going to last. ELA usage is subject to a cap that is under bi-weekly review and requires a 2/3 majority of Governing Council votes to be blocked. The government said that the cap was raised by 10bn this week to be reviewed after developments in the European Council and Eurogroup meetings in the next two weeks.

Second, the ECB decision shows that the ECB is very unlikely to accommodate increased t-bill issuance from the Greek government. There are currently two caps on t-bill usage. The first applies to total issuance and is currently set by the Troika at 15bn. The second applies to the t-bills that can be directly submitted to the ECB windows by Greek banks and currently stands at 3.5bn. The ECB kept this unchanged in yesterday's meeting. The 11.5bn of t-bills not submitted to the ECB are currently financed by other types of collateral.

Big picture, the above two developments are likely to further accelerate timelines and pressure on Greece. The government's strategy has been to secure a window between March (when the current program expires) and July (when a large GGB ECB redemption is due) over which to negotiate a new program. Time for this negotiating window would have been bought by both Troika and ECB willingness to accommodate increased t-bill issuance to pay for ongoing cash needs over the course of Q2. We have yet to hear from the Eurogroup on its willingness to raise the overall t-bill cap, but even if this materializes today's ECB decision signals rising discomfort for the central bank to accommodate this, even indirectly via other types of collateral.

This then leaves the remaining two questions above that need to be answered over the next two weeks: the conditions under which the Troika/Eurogroup would be willing to negotiate with the Greek side and the Greek government's response. The most confrontational outcome would be a Troika requirement that the current program review is completed, requiring a request from the Greek government to extend it before February 28th. A more conciliatory outcome would be an offer for negotiations on a new third program,** but accompanied by a pre-commitment (most probably written) by the Greek government to respect certain conditions. Irrespectively, the t-bill decision will be key: assuming the Troika and ECB are unwilling to approve higher issuance, the negotiations would have to be completed by the earliest of any potential ELA cap being hit due to deposit outflows or the Greek government running out of cash to pay ongoing budget needs. The exact timing of the latter remains unclear, but with Greek budget execution under very significant pressure due to the change in government and weakening economy this is unlikely to last beyond April.

The situation remains very fluid but as things stand we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program. Greece in any case has lost market access making ECCL eligibility unlikely, and given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.

* * *

Thursday February 5th - Eurogroup working group (EWG, the institution responsible for preparing Eurogroup meetings)

Thursday February 5th — Greek parliament opens, elects new speaker of the House

Saturday February 7-9th — Government presents legislative agenda to parliament, vote of confidence midnight Monday 9th

Wednesday February 11th – Likely t-bill auction to cover EUR 1.4bn maturity on 13th

Wednesday February 11th - potential emergency Eurogroup

Thursday February 12th – European Council of EU Leaders, Tsipras likely to meet Merkel on sidelines

Friday February 13th – Voting for new Greek President begins, EC Commissioner Avramopoulos most likely candidate, originating from New Democracy. Likely completed by second round on the following day requiring 151 MP majority

Monday February 16th – Eurogroup where Greece likely to be top of agenda, conditions for extension of program to be made explicit by now

Wednesday February 18th-19th- - Bi-weekly ELA review Saturday

February 28th – Current EFSF program expires

 

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Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:10 | 5746927 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

can you say counter-party panic?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:13 | 5746938 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Counter panic party

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:21 | 5746977 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

panhellenic panic party at Mr. Panos' !  Toga mandatory.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:23 | 5747007 knukles
knukles's picture

 

 

Troika:  We demand (inset 26,754 page onerous conditions) etc.
Greece:  Fuck you.  I won't pay.
Troika:  You can't do that.  We'll take your... ah... we'll um... er.... send you a tersely worded hand written note.
Greece:  Keep the postage.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:38 | 5747089 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Greece is a carnival act distracting everyone from monetary system and bond market disorder and approaching collapse.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:46 | 5747135 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Greece theatre buys a couple of more weeks of time for "insiders" to shuffle their positions accordingly. Preferably this can happen while VIX is being hammered lower and equities are going mostly up.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:08 | 5747233 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

meanwhile, the attack on Putin continues. Pentagon says he has Aspergers;

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-has-aspergers-pentagon-report-...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:08 | 5747238 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Obama's favorite dish.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:03 | 5747794 old naughty
old naughty's picture

counter putin panic, no?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:39 | 5747954 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Another Greek party ?

Will it be BYOL this time also?

 

[BYOL: Bring Your Own Lube]

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:57 | 5749041 winchester
winchester's picture

 

 

greek : we won't pay dept

ger : ok no payment for february

greek : ok then pay us back ww2 nazi scam  ( http://www.dw.de/greece-tallies-up-the-wwii-reparations-bill/a-18224874 )

ger: woot ??

greek : you paid back poland... so why not us...?

ger : fuck you

greek : ok, then we exit eurozone, fuck your dept, fuck frogz too

ger : ok wait a min, we can discuss...

fr: [ ass licking spread-gape-fisting ]

 

 

100% certified, the plan is already 80% done...

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 03:40 | 5750889 jez
jez's picture

Britain could demand reparations from Rome for the unfortunate events of AD 43 and thereafter.

Nearly 2,000 years of compound interest -- it's gonna mount up.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 06:38 | 5751008 winchester
winchester's picture

irrelevent, too much time,  ww2 is less than a century, ppl are still alive to speak about te event, go grab roman ppl, you idiot.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 07:07 | 5751030 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

I would like reparations too. I dont even want the money, just to be out of debt and 18 years old again while keeping my current knowledge.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 04:00 | 5750901 DIGrif
DIGrif's picture

Aspergers...not ass burgers.....

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:08 | 5747240 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Most Asburgers patients don't live past 20, FAIL.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:10 | 5747260 clade7
clade7's picture

Dont live past 20?  How come? They get hit by a car or stick a fork in a toaster?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:38 | 5747405 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

EU to Greece: Bend over, this won't hurt

Greece to EU: Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries

EU to Greece: If you want us to help, you need to cooperate

Greece to EU: I fart in your general direction

EU leaders to themselves: Keep at it, this seems to be going well

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:15 | 5747859 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

As individuals there are two ways smart people loan money: 1. is to people who are qualified to repay the loan and who have the callatoral to secure the loan, 2. is to friends or family where we might havean expectation of never being repaid.  The latter don't happen very often and when they do they are usually smaller.

So, when your bank or investment company makes fat buck by investing your hard earned money in shit, how does that make you feel.  When filthy fucky crooks wtih MBA's who work on Wall Street buy and sell shit with your hard earned dollars and care not for the security of your investment, but only that they make big bucks and keep investors happy in the short term, how does that make you feel?  When you find out that the financial system is one big opaque and convluted system where safety controls really don't exist how does this make you feel.

Our whole financial system has grown ever more complex, in some ways benficial and in many ways detrimental to the security of the system.  Certain derivatives are one example, multi-level (or infinite) hypothecation is another, and HFT is the last example I will give.  None of these activities or products serve any use except to benefit the originating party by making big bucks handling the trades.

Until the laws change we will be fucked. Until we toss out career politicians and corrupt banksters things will never change.  I fear the time is coming when people will stand up becuase of the inequalities that have been created with the complicity of our government and corrupt banksters.  Someday people like Jon Corzine will face their accusers, and the outcome will not be pretty.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:55 | 5748109 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“fluid developments?”

..sounds like liquidity to me.

Ok.. so how do we say this with tact..

The Greeks should offer to install worry beads one at a time into the juncture of the troika.

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 03:53 | 5750897 TEOTWAIKI
TEOTWAIKI's picture

“fluid developments?”

..sounds like liquidity to me.

 

Ok.. so how do we say this with tact..

Fiscal Diarrhra?

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 18:58 | 5753594 StychoKiller
Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:12 | 5747559 SoDamnMad
SoDamnMad's picture

clade7

You kill yourself after "massacring " children in Newtown.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:17 | 5747567 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Full syndrome (both chromosomes) is really nasty.  Blood and nervous system shut down. Common among farmers in Wisconsin originally from Norway.  Didn't marry much outside other Norwegians.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:31 | 5748271 ATM
ATM's picture

WTF are you talking about? It surely isn't Aspergers.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 05:54 | 5750979 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

There is a lesson to be learned there.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:59 | 5748717 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

"They get hit by a car or stick a fork in a toaster?"

 

...or they hack NASA and find an off world flight crew manifest for interplanetary operations and get taken down by US and UK government stooges.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:37 | 5748944 BeansMcGreens
BeansMcGreens's picture

They get "fly all you want" tickets for Malaysia Airlines.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:08 | 5747542 LetsGetPhysical
LetsGetPhysical's picture

Asburgers isn't real. Much like ADD. Some bullshit cooked up to sell pills.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:46 | 5747986 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

How about Pussyburger? Is it real?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:55 | 5748029 unrulian
unrulian's picture

I had a double with cheese this moring and i'm still hungry

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:12 | 5748137 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Aspergers generally only appears in exceptional people. For instance, see

http://www.asperger-syndrome.me.uk/people.htm

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 20:21 | 5749872 mc225
mc225's picture

aspergers is sort of 'partially autistic'. for example, those afflicted with aspergers might be irritated by flourescent lights (they can actually see those lights cycling, whereas 'fully autistic' patients see the same flourescent lights as full-blown strobe lights).

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:59 | 5748715 Zero_Head
Zero_Head's picture

femunda cheese?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:59 | 5748718 Ass Burger
Ass Burger's picture

<---real

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:56 | 5747491 JRobby
JRobby's picture

So what?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:30 | 5747633 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

With your lack of empathy you either have Aspbergers or are just a full blown psychopath.

 

But, either way, you will not care.

 

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:51 | 5748381 knukles
knukles's picture

Now that is seriously funny

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:10 | 5747549 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I love that kind of bullshit.

Let me see what my astrologer says and if my voodoo mama agrees.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:40 | 5747672 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

That is a 6 or 7 year old Pentagon study.  Very old news, actually, that is being resurrected by "somebody".

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:03 | 5747784 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Yeah, like how the fuck would they know that. He won't bend or fold and he cannot be broken. These Pentagon eggheads are used to dealing with Iraq or Libya. Aspergers is more bullshit propaganda!

Putin says McCain is retarded too! hahaha

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:47 | 5747993 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

USA : 'We will trade you Putin for Obama'

Russia : 'Nyet! You filthy Amercans!'

USA : 'We will sell you Obama for a case of whiskey?'

Russia : 'He is not worth his weight in vodka.. no!'

USA : 'Ok final offer we will toss in a dozen fat chicks and you can have him for free.'

Russia : 'Your women are worse!! Go away! '

 

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 02:39 | 5750837 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

totally agree

propaganda...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:47 | 5747994 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

And Obama has Ass-burgers...he likes 'em. 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:38 | 5748310 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

...reggie says fudgepsacker in chief has azz - splurgers...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:30 | 5748892 Sinnedi
Sinnedi's picture

Well Putin did take vaccines it seems. I am not saying that you should not take vaccines, I am saying that the us govt should name it as a side effect of mercury overdose. If you don't take vaccines you will acquire a ton of diseases. I just wish the us govt would be truthful.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=13QiSV_lrDQ

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HpQOnGJ7BFI

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:32 | 5748907 Sinnedi
Sinnedi's picture

Well Putin did take vaccines it seems. I am not saying that you should not take vaccines, I am saying that the us govt should name it as a side effect of mercury overdose. If you don't take vaccines you will acquire a ton of diseases. I just wish the us govt would be truthful.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=13QiSV_lrDQ

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HpQOnGJ7BFI

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 02:38 | 5750836 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

at work we get the usa today and it was on the front page

geesh... what they come up with

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:52 | 5747154 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

... "0" A..D Olympic Games .....

Ancient Greece marked the beginning of the Contemporary Western World

...2010 A.D Olympic Games.....

Marked the end of the Contemporary Western World

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:21 | 5747889 thinkmoretalkless
thinkmoretalkless's picture

Greco - Euro wresting. Watch the match ignore the flames in the stadium

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:33 | 5747276 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

The Fed Lashes Out at Rand Paul... Reintroduces Audit the Fed Legislation

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/231822-fed-fires-back

- Yellen will fight
- Fisher from Dallas Fed Will Fight
- Various Govenors will fight
- Obama will Veto

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:59 | 5747494 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

Agreed Pinto - In my humble opinion , Greece leaving the Euro-Zone is like having a tumor removed from your face. 

I would think it extremely bullish.

Greece is used as a scapegoat for the Euro failure.

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:48 | 5747715 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

The real danger, as the ECB sees it, isn't so much system failure in Greece---that's a done deal--- but Greece as an example of rebellion against failed ECB policies. All the weaker economies of Europe are watching how Greece handles this crisis, hoping to be the second rebel, not the second domino.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 20:50 | 5749965 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The EU is done, finished, kaput stick a fork in it... the Greek elections are merely the first where the people are fed up with the failed policies from Brussels... Spain will be next... Just follow the ever growing protests by those that have been fucked in this failed experiment in globalization... Which will be followed by a purging of muslims from EU countres, no matter what the globalists want... 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 02:33 | 5750825 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

Get rid of the jew and all of your problems go away. Well, after you fix all of the problems the jew has caused for you.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 08:28 | 5751101 winchester
winchester's picture

said the black on food stamps ...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:27 | 5748540 Bingo Hammer
Bingo Hammer's picture

I beg to differ.

The reason it is front and centre is because it IS directly connected to the whole "monetary system and bond market disorder and approaching collapse". Whatever happens in Greece right now and how they slice it will have significant effects on Spain, italy, Portugal, all the major Eurpoean banks, the ECB and then cascades around the globe. The British finance minister wasn't joking when he said the Greek situation was far more dangerous for the world than anything ISIS is doing. 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 10:22 | 5751482 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

A major player in Greek economy is Greek Orthodox Church with vast real estate, gold and business investments. Yet they seem silent, although they are at risk of losing assets as well as  cash paying candle buyers. 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:35 | 5747377 The central planners
The central planners's picture

Obomber: I will send lethal aid.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 20:04 | 5749820 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Why not invade Macedonia?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:18 | 5747870 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Dear Troika,

You can't get blood from a rock. That which can't be paid back, won't be paid back.

Gruss,

post turtle saver

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:32 | 5747923 European American
European American's picture

Troika:  We demand (inset 26,754 page onerous conditions) etc.
Greece:  Fuck you.  I won't pay.


Troika:  We'd like you to meet "NATO", our collection agency.

 


Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:49 | 5748003 frenzic
frenzic's picture

The Troika is in no position to start a war in Europe.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:43 | 5748978 king leon
king leon's picture

NEWSFLASH : Greece has mobilised 300 Spartans. 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 08:27 | 5751102 winchester
winchester's picture

lmfao !!!

++10000

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 01:57 | 5750772 Heavy
Heavy's picture

I hope they try to kick em in the balls from  behind while they're on the way out.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:54 | 5747173 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"That was fucking trippy"

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:13 | 5746948 negative rates
negative rates's picture

EU implosion in March.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:50 | 5747465 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

From your keyboard to God's screen...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:36 | 5747078 clade7
clade7's picture

Campus Panty Party?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:39 | 5747080 clade7
clade7's picture

Panty Party Picnic?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:48 | 5747132 ManuelSDT
Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:24 | 5747331 Apeman
Apeman's picture

Counter people-pooper

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:23 | 5747603 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:14 | 5746933 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program"

And for all practical purposes Greece remains a slave state.

"At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question."

Yup, there it is. Longer leash, same problem.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:15 | 5746962 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Hey, when Pharaoh offers you more straw, you take that deal ...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:37 | 5747072 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

And the tally shall not decrease.  However, if Admiral Ackbar were here I'm sure he'd reply with the following:  "It's a trap!"

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:36 | 5747076 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It is always and forever about raw power. Nation states worry about their independent existence just as much as individuals do.

The art of compromise (and thus continued slavery albeit under slightly better living conditions) is often dictated by the very question of survival.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:03 | 5747220 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

I feel that the Greek Fin Min touring Europe makes him look like he's looking for favors and handouts.  If he truly has the upper hand at the negotiating table, then why doesn't he just stay home.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:09 | 5747256 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Maybe he has all kinds of info about CIA & US Military Involvement in the Greek Coup of 1967 and later in Greece. Maybe he is using it as a threat, but it is still a kind of secret or is a secret to Americans anyway.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:12 | 5747552 LetsGetPhysical
LetsGetPhysical's picture

Or maybe he's going to visit his rich daddy's friends.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:24 | 5747320 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

I keep coming back to cash flow.

 

Where will the Greek government  get the cash to fill the gap between revenue and expenditures?

 

They can either live within their current tax base - or borrow from someone.

 

If I was on the other side of the table from Greece I would offer them 2 years - no interest - no principal payments - but no new loans either -

 

I am such a nice guy - willing to give them some room to get their house in order.

 

Greece wants  debt forgiveness first - then new loans -

 

I could see that - maybe - but they want to then use the new loans to give everyone a raise, hire more government employees, and restore lost pension payments - in other words - go right back to what got them in trouble in the first place.

 

I can't imagine any banker agreeing to this - but you just never know.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:39 | 5747961 Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

Not only can I, but I think the paperwork is in process as we speak.  The Greeks will get some debt forgiveness and new loans.  Why?  Because the consequences of not getting them are too dire for both the EU and the ECB.

Now they will either lie about the debt forgiveness, or hide it through highly technical language buried deep in some 5,000 page agreement so no one else gets on the forgiveness train.  But it will happen.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:20 | 5748517 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

I just don't see all the dire consequences if Greece leaves the EU.

 

Bla bla bla - Italy and Spain are next - I don't see why that must be true.

 

The EU would be better off without Greece. Can anyone disagree? Does anyone think they are vital to the future of the EU?

 

I am not saying I would want this -- but I know how bankers think -

Let Greece go - or kick them out  - then punish them to the max -  use them as an example to help negotiations with the Italy and Spain.

 

If I had a bum in my family I would not keep loaning them money as long as they promised to stay around and sponge off me.

 

If I had a bum in my family I would maybe pay them to go away - if they promised to never come back -

 

Or if I thought like a banker - pay someone else to break their arm and tell them if they ever do come back expect 10X more pain.

 

I do however understand that my views are most likely wrong.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:04 | 5748739 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Either that, or execute bums.  Either way, bums are expensive.  You cannot not deal with them.  Bummer.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 17:59 | 5749338 Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

ISIS feels the same way.  But their way of dealing with them is not as expensive as ours.
Major bummer.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 06:57 | 5751023 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

ISIS will never let you down.

http://bringvictory.com/

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 17:21 | 5749170 Boubou
Boubou's picture

If Greece were not an independent state ( whatever that means today) and were an EU subdivision or state, then no one would doubt that the EU region as a whole will support poor states with common revenue from all.

And of course , an integrated EU political body is what they say they want.

Kind of like Mississipi.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 09:29 | 5751200 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

So when the state of Illinois pension plan runs out of money - you think the people over in Montana will be more than happy to send them some of their retirement savings?

 

How much did you send to Detroit when they faced bankruptcy?

 

If your view was correct then why didn't the federal gov pay off Detroit's debts?

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 14:14 | 5752430 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Because there are limits to the level of aid. It still exists. Plenty of poor states get more money from the feds than they give back.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 06:55 | 5751020 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

They will have to tax their base, in drachmas, and allot their dwindling income to fund essential imports only. Housing prices ought to crash, so the population has that going for them at least...

Everything imported will become expensive and scarce, not having enough euros to pay for them. The repressed Greek entrepreneurs and industrialists ought to take the opportunity to supply a domestic market cut off from foreign competition if only by the low value of their currency.

To be honest i have never seen this happen. Both Cuba and Venezuela were cut off from foreign markets and it only lead to an exodus of their former middle class.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:10 | 5747826 a common man
a common man's picture

Exactly, Antifascist:

"...makes him look like he's looking for favors and handouts.."

Kind of like a variation on Hank Paulsons give us the money or there will be martial law.....

If anything was going to change we would be hearing reports of them working out the details of printing new drachmas at the Bank of Greece instead of all the verbose posturing. The story is already old. We can tell the ending already.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:20 | 5746991 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A new deal is a new deal, period.  If Greece gets a new deal, so should Italy, Spain, and Portugal.  Tick tock...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:47 | 5747143 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

You forgot Ireland.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:54 | 5747171 Captain Willard
Captain Willard's picture

Which is why the Troika is isolating Greece. 

As several others have observed on this thread, a Grexit has a finite cost. A rolling crisis metastasizing to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland is a systemic threat.

The time for "collective action" against the Troika was a few summers ago. But the Troika was able to divide and conquer. 

It was an historic missed opportunity.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:16 | 5747234 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  The constant in life is change.  Plenty of opportunity out there, but not for fucking cowards when the safety net is gone.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:25 | 5747329 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

You forgot all but Germany.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:10 | 5747547 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I think Luxemburg is a net creditor to the ECB by a few pennies,

  but yeah, pretty much.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:40 | 5747967 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Ireland seems oddly content being a bitch boy.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:11 | 5746935 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Kabuki Theater, whether by Greek or German or EU politicians/bureaucrats, is BULLISH.

Drama, where PIIGS+FUK are "saved with seconds to spare," are most bullish.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:13 | 5746953 Rainman
Rainman's picture

How do you say ' non-credit event ' in German ?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:24 | 5746986 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Nichtkreditereignis.

Or.

Bitte entfernen Sie die griechische Schwanz aus meinem Arsch.


Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:33 | 5747056 Lady Jessica
Lady Jessica's picture

den griechischen Schwanz

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:17 | 5747283 Haager
Haager's picture

Not if you're Dutch or Belgian, they never get it right with 'der, die, das, dem den...'

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:05 | 5748084 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Say Scheveningen.

Say Scheveningen motherfucker.

Thought so.

They never get it right.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:34 | 5747064 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I like the second one.

 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:14 | 5747565 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

und Mai der blaue Vogel des Glückes,
Mist auf dem Geburtstagskuchen.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:15 | 5746963 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Sure, the Euro was destined to die from the start.

It's how long Brussels can keep covering up the lies. 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:57 | 5747189 JRobby
JRobby's picture

As long as people continue to believe them. Could be a while..........

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:17 | 5746966 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Deutsche Bank carry's a lot of credibility. Get your extra cash out now and buy Gold/Silver bullion. Sleep well and enjoy the melt-down with a bowl of popcorn and your favorite beverage. That's what i'm doing...Too Be Cont.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:50 | 5747159 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

DB has been an insolvent pig posing as a well capitalized bank for years now. Their derivatives book is a freakish nightmare.

Who the fuck are they kidding?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:22 | 5746967 agent default
agent default's picture

If Europe folds, the rest of the South will follow.  Not a good prospect for the Euro. Either the Euro becomes a weak currency like the Southern Europe currencies used to be, in which case Germany will leave, or Greece is crushed and kicked out in order to set an example.  I think they will make an example out of Greece. Grexit may be costly, but allowing the rest of the South to follow the example of Greece will be even costlier.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:26 | 5747020 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Maybe Cyprus will buddy up with Greece...a 2 for 1 deal...to Turkey and Russia. 

RISKy business.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:23 | 5747310 agent default
agent default's picture

Let me tell you what happens when the US and Russia both take an interest in your territory.  They get the British PM to settle the matter on the back of a cigarette pack*.  Yes you can realign your county's allegiances but doing it like this is asking for trouble from both sides.

 

* The cigarette pack is an urban legend of Yalta.  Churchill probably used a napkin.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 16:08 | 5748762 Benjamin123
Benjamin123's picture

Churchill being an asshole clown as usual. Stalin was not impressed.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:27 | 5747312 agent default
agent default's picture

Double post.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:49 | 5747146 Captain Willard
Captain Willard's picture

Exactly.

This has been the case from the start.

Perhaps Syriza misunderstood its mandate. I think they were elected to defeat the Troika while maintaining Greece's status and privileges within the EU and the Eurozone. this was never going to be possible. 

The banks have out-smarted the Troika again. They aren't going to pay for this mess. The Troika is mainly holding the "bag" here. And I will wager that the Syriza coalition will fall when the average Greek realizes the Drachma is coming back and that his/her meagre savings will be inflated away.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:22 | 5748212 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

 I think they were elected to defeat the Troika while maintaining Greece's status and privileges within the EU and the Eurozone. this was never going to be possible. 

We have a winner.  This is the fundamental disconnect with the Syriza win.  The population there is sick of being the EU's bitch, but they also quite clearly say they want to remain within the euro system.  That is a blatant contradiction in desires that sadly is going to resolve in a way that they don't like at all.  There is no magic money fairy.  Pain awaits.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 15:15 | 5748500 The Other Cheek
The Other Cheek's picture

All banks are money creating magic money fairies, pay attention.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 02:58 | 5750859 nicxios
nicxios's picture

The contradiction exists because they have been conditioned to believe the euro is awesome and leaving it would be complete devastation. But slowly people are coming to realize this contradiction. Support for a national currency according to Gallup is over 50%. That doesn't get much press. The corrupt media in Greece only shows their own bullshit polls.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:44 | 5747688 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Can they create two Euros?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 14:32 | 5748245 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Sure!  Made at home with gold and silver. They do not even need to look like Euros. 

People can scratch/scrawl any inscription they want on them and start trading. Why wait for bankers??

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 17:11 | 5749115 king leon
king leon's picture

No one can exit the EU as Ireland found out to their cost  The lyrics to the Eagles Hotel California sums it up just fine, "You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave" 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 01:11 | 5750696 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Apple and Google probably ensured Ireland stays in control...and their Double Irish with Dutch Sandwich tax breaks.

Ireland is where The City does all its edgy finance, without a hint of legality.

Ireland is to The City, as the Wild West or New World was to the Banksters.

Cyprus and Greece not so much.  However, Rusia abused Cyprus a great deal to get money into EU.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:18 | 5746984 Himins
Himins's picture

If you don't believe that we are already in a state of collapse, .

Let me put this a different way, Hillary and Bush are running for president.

Jeb Bush while speaking to a crowd in Fla.

"Parents need to protect their kids with vaccinations, over and out"

That's right.....he said "over and out", i can't make this shit up

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:32 | 5747012 The Chief
The Chief's picture

That is one cabal full of inhuman, evil, mother fuckers.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:52 | 5747163 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

It's one cabal made to look like two cabals.

The more I learn about the Bushes...and Clintons...the more The Chief is right.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:41 | 5747419 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

Criminal 'families' in the true meaning of the term.  At least with the Clintons it's only one generation (so far) but the Bushes  are in the middle of their third.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:46 | 5747694 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

The Clintons just need more time, Bushes have been around longer.  If Hillary gets the presidency can Chelsea be far behind?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:04 | 5747806 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Sorry I can't remember who first pointed this out, but it's a keen observation: the Bush family used its vast financial wealth to gain political power; the Clintons used their political power to aquire vast financial wealth.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:47 | 5747134 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I, as president, will make you eat your peas....thank you and goodnite! Over and out.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:11 | 5747245 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Jeb was speaking in Detroit. He wanted to see how his stuff would play in a city that has already collapsed. Apparently it went well..............

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:33 | 5747373 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

Jeb Bush is mildly retarded.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 05:52 | 5750976 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Russian media says he has Aspergers

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:02 | 5747499 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Jerry Brown said the same thing in CA yesterday....
No vaccine waivers anymore

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:49 | 5747710 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

The two witches Feinstein and Boxer were demanding it yesterday.  The juggernaut is on for America.  No opt out.  What we make, you take.  And by the way, no more raw dairy, no more small farms.  It's all for your safety.

 

BTW, why is there even this hysteria over measles?  When I grew up it was a fucking rite of passage. 

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 12:57 | 5747767 Boubou
Boubou's picture

Measels is no big deal. I and all mates had it back then. The bonus is, it gives you resistance to measles. We ticked off all the chldhood diseases.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:00 | 5747778 Boubou
Boubou's picture

Meanwhile we kill more and more innocents abroad every hour. What about their welfare?

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:25 | 5747017 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

that chart is obviously not based on nirp

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:21 | 5746997 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

ironic how the bankers got a french socialist to do their krony krapitalist bidding via the imf. take another bonus bitchez.

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:28 | 5747036 Shekels
Shekels's picture

Where is the US Fed when you need it ? Instead of giving fiat aid to israel, help out poor, victimized greece! ZH'rs need to buy more greek government bonds themselves to show fraternal solidarity!

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:29 | 5747043 youngman
youngman's picture

I cant believe they still allow Greece to sell 15 billion in t-bills now...and who is buying them...what a joke...

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 11:27 | 5747337 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

ECB

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 13:37 | 5747947 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

That would be Mr. Mezvinsky!

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 05:55 | 5750980 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

who is buying them?

Chelsea Clintons husbands hedge fund - lost  46% of value - GS (US taxpayer) was big investor in this fund

Thu, 02/05/2015 - 10:35 | 5747047 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If Europe folds it's because of the trillions in dervatives at stake. Douche bank and the rest of the banks in Europe haven't been able to throw them off on the tax payer like yet like the banks have in this country. 

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