This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold
The Greek situation summaries Greece by Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos have consistently been among the best in the entire sellside. His latest Greek update, which is a must read for anyone who hasn't been following the fluid developments out of southeast Europe, which fluctuate not on an hourly but on a minute basis, does not disappoint.
But while his summary of events is great, what is of far greater significance is his conclusion, namely that ultimately Europe will fold: "we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program" and "given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks."
If DB is right, and if Europe folds, the question then is what concessions will the ECB and the Eurozone be prepared to give to Italy, Spain and all the other nations where anti-European sentiment has been on a tear in recent months, and especially in the aftermath of Syriza's stunning victory.
From Deutsche Bank
Greek Update
Over the last couple of weeks we have framed developments in Greece around three questions:
First, under what conditions would the Troika be willing to continue negotiating with Greece?
Second, does the Greek government accept these conditions?
Third, how does the ECB link Greek bank financing to program negotiation?
Yesterday evening we got an answer to the last question sooner than expected. The ECB no longer considers Greece to be under a program, and the rating waivers on Greek government-based collateral are being removed. We estimate that Greek bank funding at the ECB financing windows currently runs between 70-80bn EUR, of which approximately 30bn relies on AAA EFSF-based collateral. As a result the remaining funding (or about 50bn) will now have to shift to ELA from next week. Even if this decision is likely to have materialized when the program expired at the end of February, there are two broader implications.
First, the decision shows that the ECB is feeling increasingly uncomfortable providing financing to Greek banks while negotiations are under way. This in turn raises the more important question of how long and how large any ELA provision is going to last. ELA usage is subject to a cap that is under bi-weekly review and requires a 2/3 majority of Governing Council votes to be blocked. The government said that the cap was raised by 10bn this week to be reviewed after developments in the European Council and Eurogroup meetings in the next two weeks.
Second, the ECB decision shows that the ECB is very unlikely to accommodate increased t-bill issuance from the Greek government. There are currently two caps on t-bill usage. The first applies to total issuance and is currently set by the Troika at 15bn. The second applies to the t-bills that can be directly submitted to the ECB windows by Greek banks and currently stands at 3.5bn. The ECB kept this unchanged in yesterday's meeting. The 11.5bn of t-bills not submitted to the ECB are currently financed by other types of collateral.
Big picture, the above two developments are likely to further accelerate timelines and pressure on Greece. The government's strategy has been to secure a window between March (when the current program expires) and July (when a large GGB ECB redemption is due) over which to negotiate a new program. Time for this negotiating window would have been bought by both Troika and ECB willingness to accommodate increased t-bill issuance to pay for ongoing cash needs over the course of Q2. We have yet to hear from the Eurogroup on its willingness to raise the overall t-bill cap, but even if this materializes today's ECB decision signals rising discomfort for the central bank to accommodate this, even indirectly via other types of collateral.
This then leaves the remaining two questions above that need to be answered over the next two weeks: the conditions under which the Troika/Eurogroup would be willing to negotiate with the Greek side and the Greek government's response. The most confrontational outcome would be a Troika requirement that the current program review is completed, requiring a request from the Greek government to extend it before February 28th. A more conciliatory outcome would be an offer for negotiations on a new third program,** but accompanied by a pre-commitment (most probably written) by the Greek government to respect certain conditions. Irrespectively, the t-bill decision will be key: assuming the Troika and ECB are unwilling to approve higher issuance, the negotiations would have to be completed by the earliest of any potential ELA cap being hit due to deposit outflows or the Greek government running out of cash to pay ongoing budget needs. The exact timing of the latter remains unclear, but with Greek budget execution under very significant pressure due to the change in government and weakening economy this is unlikely to last beyond April.
The situation remains very fluid but as things stand we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program. Greece in any case has lost market access making ECCL eligibility unlikely, and given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.
* * *
Thursday February 5th - Eurogroup working group (EWG, the institution responsible for preparing Eurogroup meetings)
Thursday February 5th — Greek parliament opens, elects new speaker of the House
Saturday February 7-9th — Government presents legislative agenda to parliament, vote of confidence midnight Monday 9th
Wednesday February 11th – Likely t-bill auction to cover EUR 1.4bn maturity on 13th
Wednesday February 11th - potential emergency Eurogroup
Thursday February 12th – European Council of EU Leaders, Tsipras likely to meet Merkel on sidelines
Friday February 13th – Voting for new Greek President begins, EC Commissioner Avramopoulos most likely candidate, originating from New Democracy. Likely completed by second round on the following day requiring 151 MP majority
Monday February 16th – Eurogroup where Greece likely to be top of agenda, conditions for extension of program to be made explicit by now
Wednesday February 18th-19th- - Bi-weekly ELA review Saturday
February 28th – Current EFSF program expires
»
- 126349 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Deriviatives chain daisy cutter bomb for the EU banks.
Nations admitting bankruptcy will be suspended until further notice. Remember Cyprus? not a credit event. So all derivatives are basically worthless lies.
Its a colateral problem that has been treated as a liquidity problem for 7 years
ew, Bailout or Bail-In for Douche Bank!!
That would turn up the heat:
- Bailouts for Banks
- Haircuts for Banks, EU, ECB, IMF
- Troika Folds to Greek Wishes
- Greece gets 4th Bailout with Troika
Whad I miss?
- Russian Access to Greek Ports
- Russian Oil or Gas Pipeline
- Russian & Chinese Treaties for Free Trade
- Major partnerships with China and/or Russia
Banksters threaten Greece through the ECB as predicted
Here I thought it would be Japan that first hit the blades...
I think the first one to hit wins...and i will call that Iceland.....they seem to be coming back Okay after the banker crash....
Either you panic early, or you ride it out and try to look calm. Either way it's all a CONfidence game.
Oh, forgot one very important factor...Japan has a CB...damn it!
Hey Bro... while you got your Wallet out , can you spare a Fiver...
^Look out, there goes Charlie Babbitt again! Here's your dream for me, Hunny:
Charlie: Tell em, Ray.
Raymond: KMart sucks!
But hey, I thought you might enjoy watching cents go to BK court and tell the banks to open up n EAT IT. And if not now, when? I've always done everything right and paid for it all, but I'd love to rip them off just once before it's too late. And it might even be a boon for the child, to come into this world 'makin em pay.' ;)
ot..
http://www.mining.com/russia-stashed-55-tonnes-of-gold-in-switzerland-la...
'Rapidly changing Greek situation'?
Looks to me like Greece is holding the line they've been saying all along.
The 'we don't pay our debts back' line?
I used to think the same way, but once you realize that the money they borrowed wasn't earned it was created by software and only ever existed on a hard drive, it's hard to justify requiring debtors to exchange their labor for it. The creditors didn't earn the money, they pushed a button on a computer.
In the old days I was very against defaulting on debt, but that was owed to your grandparents who saved a lifetime. This credit didn't come from savings, technocrats willed it into existence on a computer.
Tha's a thought provoking idea. It chips at the bed rock of modern finance and raises moral questions. Someone needs to stand and fight.
Let it not be me.
but did they not trade those bits for bmws? who is going to pay for those?
Just a protection racket funded by the German industrial associations.
Provide credit to customers, dump said credit on banks, have banks dump it on "taxpayers". Taxpayers being Germans themselves means Germans are retroactively selling stuff at a discount.
Full fiscal union is the only way out. That is what the EU must do. Anything else is merely kicking the can.
Socialism kills!
Dreams of global dominance kill
The Euro is the rope that binds Greece to slavery.
Indefinately increasing debt and increasing the level of bankruptcy is the only solution offerred Greece...whilst increasing austerity continues to destroy the country which inevitably puts the entire country into poverty...and creates a nasty problem for Greece and Europe that wont be contained within Greek borders.
All that has been achieved is to shrink the Greek economy, put many more into poverty and reduce to zero any chance of Greece recovering. The ONLY way out is default and Drachma..... how much pain will all suffer until they take that path??
I respectfully disagree:
The Euro is the rope that will free europe from the dollar!
Lol! Gud1! Lol!
Ropes usually tie people up or hang them.
So the BCE has given the the EU zombie banks many hundreds of Billions of Euro ( probably trillions ) .
The original Greek debt was only 45 Billions and now thanks to BCE , TROKA , IMF it has ballooned to 340 billions .
Conisdering that the EURO is toilet paper with ink , I do not see any problem for the BCE to give 340 billions to Greece at zero interest .
If Greece doesn't get relief , I hope it starts printing Euro without authority ......... I am enjoing every minute of this saga . So,to see the EU of the corrupt politicians that take money from the CIA fail it will be a great pleasure ! I am having a ball !
This is turning out to be wholesome family entertainment! Hopefully there will be no wardrobe Malfunctions. Go Spartans! Beat Euros!
Don't need to read the article...Europe will fold because they have something to loose. Greece will not because they have something to gain.
Mutti's nightmare : IF we fold to Greece (which we must 'cos we don't want a fascist Milosevic type in Athens) what does this mean for Spain, Portugal and Italy who will ask for same treatment ?
The options are now narrowing fast as the OTHER Euro crisis HOTTENS up : UKRAINE !
EU has to avoid WAR and NATO over-stretch in Ukraine just like it has to avoid :
Grexit (not on, as the monetary KNOCK ON to banks is incalculable)
Losing face in monetary deflation retraction (aka pulling back Draghi QE plans and landing DEEP into deflation)
Losing face in monetary "no control" monetary expansion (aka full euro bonding in the event a Greek deal makes Portugal/Spain/Italy scream for moar of the same)
All NOVEL territory for the EZ combine.
Europe in the face of mounting militarist and monetary currency war tensions has to decide PRONTO :
Is it Confederate Status Quo or do we go ALL-in into moar FEDERATION of ALL our combined assets?
Ghordius,
Any thoughts on these developments?
We don't need Grexit , just change 2 letters so we get GERXIT (Dexit in German) the single right thing to do!
The elites of the EU do not have to avoid war. Their fathers and grandfathers taught them the importance of flushing the system now and again over cigars and fine liquors. They have been taught to find some rebel-rousers to handle bundles of cash to in order to create chaos and war.
2015 may yet prove to be the year of the great unraveling. If not globally at least for the EURO and the European Union. The new Greek government have tossed their sabots into the creaking gears of ECB finance. Throw in a growing and impossible to ignore war in eastern Ukraine and it all has the stench of 1914 come for a revisit.
Can somebody explain to me how Santander bank (Banco Spain) who was 8.9 billion short in their capital fund can now by Sun Trust bank ?
Anyone catch this:
Putin invites Greek PM Tsipras to Moscowhttps://euobserver.com/tickers/127518
Not a big fan of the EU in any respect but if they fold on (Venezuela) Greece then it is over for them!
Syriza has backpeddled faster than John Boehner's last budget.
Socilaism kills people and countries!
Something has to give. Either leave the Euro or take a bailout. This shit causing algos to fluctuate prices 10% up and down daily is screwing everything over.
The FT reporting a Greek deal and I get to pay $.40 more per gallon in gas because everything is fucking correlated.
If the communists in Greece continue to exploit Ukraine situation as they are now, the punishment on Greeks will be even greater.
They will regret this.
Oh, they'll regret it alright. But the political scene in Europe will be galvanised to change. Le Pan in France, Podemos in Spain, the 5 Star movement in Italy, AfD in Germany are on the march. And don't believe the poll ratings of UKIP in the UK. They have no support in the big conurbations or in Scotland....but, outside, they must be level pegging with the big two
He who laughs last, laughs loudest.
Question Authority.
Yes, but syriza is like Comandante Chavez
I wish he were more like Che Guevara.
Yeah ...the people of Cuba are still tryin' to get over that disaster!
Che was not very smart in the end. He was trying to foment a revolution in a country that had already had there revolution.
But questioning authority is officialy declared a mental disease in US.
You will get the electrodes
Greece is the canary .... in the rectum !
Somebody's gonna get hurt real bad!
If Europe folds any more, it might end up streight
wtf, the entire population of Greece is 11m, Los Angeles has that many illegals on welfare, so what's the problem?
300 billion euro debt
So we need Goldman to come in and create $300b in wetback bonds yielding 8% and available via derivatives in three tranches, then we could be all Greecey too.
And 'AAA' rated!
Let's see, Los Angeles city budget is $8b/year, county budget is $26b/year, state budget about $250b, let's say total city is about $8+26/3+250/6=$59b, so $300b would be 1/3 of budget over 15 years, let's say the illegals are 1/5 of the local economy, so that would just about pay for 75 years of debauchery, and the illegals in LA don't even buy any F-16s. So yes, Greece has a lot of debt outstanding but whose fault is that? Who bought it?
ps - hey the edit function isn't working I keep getting "you are not authorized to access that page"
Interesting math!
Just dicking around of course, but it helps to understand the scale of things.
The real question is qui bono, who spent it, who collected the fees, who played the piano? And that's the Greek argument, more or less, or at least the ZH version of it. And I'd like to see the answers.
How much of the $300b is real, or how much is money borrowed to pay old loans so it's the same drachma counted multiple times and never bought any ouzo or hummus?
Those in bancrupcy always ask the same questions. The few Greeks that did pay their taxes have drained their bank accounts and are off to greener pastures! It's over!
LOL, I suppose you're right. Like when you don't pay taxes or a credit card bill, and suddenly penalties and interest dwarf the original debt. But the point is they can often be taken right back off again, and the real debt paid with a haircut, and ten dollars in real money can settle a thousand dollars in fancy talk.
True. They are 'free' to default. The problem for the Greeks will be locating a new lender at anyhwere near reasonable terms! The is the potential for near 100% unemployment!
So they wont borrow anymore. Wasnt borrowing what started the problem?
Make up your mind. Evil greeks should not have borrowed, but must pay to keep borrowing?
You seem to be confused. A sovereign nation can create money of its own, it doesnt need to be in hock to international finance. Every year the United States creates trillions of dollars out of thin air. It has reserve currency status and can rule the world based on this money -- well, it can rule parts of the world, and militarily only. Greece can certainly print Drachmas -- money creation is an ability which sovereign states possess. Not having this ability is why the Eurozone is economically doomed, according to several analysts whom I followed (most notably Mark Blythe and Michael Hudson). Its precisely the ability to fund its own deficits -- i.e. create money -- which makes states independent of external lendors, which makes them sovereign.
In my view, suffering currency devaluation is far preferable to escape the IMF's tentacles, which is just shorthand for the tentacles of international finance in all its various forms. Ecuador seems to have done this with some success with Correa, if I recall the documentary I just watched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrpA46YS7P0&index=17&list=PLMTk07rWd6ioF...
It wont make anyone rich, but it will allow them to rebuild their collapsed social capital which finance is destroying in each successive country it preys on. Thats more important than a lot of other things, IMO, and is ultimately (although at a remove most short-term thinking cant grasp) the basis of real wealth anyway.
A good point/ US supports many many more indigents than the population of Greece.
The EU needs to accept its responsibilites and do the same. Isn't that the idea?
Don't be fooled this is all about pipeline wars continued...
Nabucco - dead Ukraine/Bulgaria/Romania
Southstream - dead Ukraine /Bulgaria/Romania
TANAP - Feeder line for both including eventual Arab gas pipeline through Syria/Iraq/Iran built with no exporting capacity out of the middle east (built)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Anatolian_gas_pipeline
Leaves us with one existing project still in the works that goes through, you guessed it, Greece.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_Adriatic_Pipeline
Now how does the SNB dropping the euro peg tie into this.
From the wikipedia article you can follow the footnotes yourself to the source articles for verification.
...Trans Adriatic Pipeline AG is a joint venture company registered in Baar, canton Zug, Switzerland, with a purpose of planning, developing and building the TAP pipeline. [30] Managing Director of the company is Kjetil Tungland.[31]
Shareholders of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline are BP (20%), SOCAR (20%), Statoil (20%), Fluxys (19%), Enagas (16%) and Axpo (5%)....
One should be asking how does the SNB abandoning the euro peg affect the financing of this project including it's bigger significance to the EU.
Then of course you have Russia in the background who would benefit from turning Greece into a Russian clusterfuck equivalent of Ukraine if they can't swing influence in Greece towards Russia. TANAP is the EU/US's pipeline project not a Russian one. Then consider this what if Russia only accepts Euros for gas oil, where is the money printing velocity going to go and then how does that benefit the Swiss selling gold to the Russians afterwards. You've essentially ensured mutual benefince in keeping the Euro around once Russia recaptolizes their fx reserves with Euros instead federal reserve and treasury notes. End result is the Trans Adriatic Pipeline gets build and Greece stays in the EU on it's terms as long as Russia sops up the excess money printing.
Greeks have a lot stronger bargaining hand here than is being reported.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/greek-government-natural-gas-policy
Some more color on this.
Here is the key issue on this one.
...One critical matter on which Syriza has yet to official state its position is on the movement of gas discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean and on the conflict on between Cyprus and Turkey on the ownership on gas resources....
I'm sure Russia would love reposition their assets in Greece that were chased out of Cyprus to get at this. All the field borders are still indispute. It is another bargaining chip Greece has to play.
From the article.
...The Syriza government appears to also be supporting the Turk Stream gas route to replace the cancelled South Stream project...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Stream
And Brussels position on Turk Stream.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/sefcovic-southern-gas-corridor-condition...
Good time for Turkey to move on Cyprus and the other islands. Maybe ErDogen can send some food stuffs in exchange for some pretty Christian children...a kind of student exchange pogrom, eh program. Syriza has zero leverage and zero room to maneuver. In the end, only the greedy Greek people will continue to pay for their cultural-economic profligacy.
I think the Russians might have something to say to that.
Pay if you play!
The Mediterranean Sea .... known affectionately .... as The Bay of PIIGS !
The Mediterranean Sea .... known affectionately .... as The Bay of PIIGS !
Nice 1!
Actually very nice 1!
Loser.
a loser who needs to take her Medications-and stay in the kitchen!
Bwaaaaaa! The socialists/communists of Greece, Spain, Portugal can all stiff the EU Dictatorship, but they have no concept of growing the economic pie and consequently those peoples will not see relief, not to mention prosperity possibly within their 'collective' lifetimes. The best that the neo-communists can offer is the bare necessities equally distributed for all but the ruling elites.
falconflight,
NEWSFLASH:
Except for possibly you, no one can "grow the economic pie."
Bizzaro post. Your "letters" include what? GED?
Is there anything cuter than a dour finger-pointing sanctimonious socialist deadbeat?
What about an angry warmongering sanctimonious republican demagogue?
Or a feminist lesbian in a flannel shirt & timberland work boots!
I know one. Super cute. No sarc.
LOL! who needs to STAY on her medications!
Greece should exit the EU and adopt the Yuan as its new currency
What a bunch of crap.
At first, Greece's new minister said that he had no interest in pursuing more loans and instead wanted to end the "oligarchs" control over Greece. That was the smartest and bravest idea that anyone has said in quite a while.
Now, they're 'negotiating'. What a shame. The minister must have gotten the message that, "if you push to far, you and your entire family will be dead". Guess he didn't want to be JFK'd.
There's nothing more expensive than a socialist!
The Greek goverment should take 100 million and leverage it up. Then manipulate the market by switching every two days from defiant to accommodating. They could front run the fuck out of the market. If they did it 11 times and doubled their money each time, they could turn that into the 300 billion they need.
They need to hire JPM again to obscure falsify everything and snow the ECB into more mistakes.
The collapse of the Euro should cause the dollar to strengthen even more and push the DOW to 25,000
Its unlikely that Europe will fold. If they immediately dont get Greece into line, they will automatically give Podemos in Spain a huge victory in the upcoming elections. There are sitting Governments in Spain, Italy, France, UK and many other countries, who do not want to see Euroscepticism grow any more, and I don't imagine there will be any majority for giving Greece a better deal.
But then again, speaking about EU and majority, I realise my mistake. It is a dictatorship so we obviously don't quite know.
ECB finance decision...http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/02/05/ecb-allows-e59b-5bn-ela-to-repl...
The ability to pay for electricity has vanished for approximately 25 percent of the public. That's your sustainable energy industry stripping out the people's ability to even live above the farm animals. I don't have the answers, but it's obvious, neither do the 'saviors of the People.'
Theres' nothing more expensive than a Socialist!
what the ECU should do is form a separate agency for bad latin Euro debtors, cut the paper in tranches, hire a US rating agency to rate it AAA, resell it on the market, and we can all put on our DOW 20000 hats
All part of the end game.
All these negotiations and conjectures ignore the largest influence on all that matters.
Has George Soros taken his positions, paid off all those who will really decide which actions to take, (which is what Georgie is telling them to do) and readied his exit with no bumps in the road??
" Has George Soros taken his positions"
Of course He has, Varoufakis WORKS FOR HIM.
Nothing says sell your gold like political and financial instability.
Greece outlines debt "menu" in bid to win over sceptical euro zone
February 2, 2015 3:57 PM(Updates with details of deal Greece is seeking)
Related Stories* Greek finance minister takes case to Paris, London
* Germany's Schaeuble rejects unilateral change to debt deal
* New government vows to keep election promise to reject austerity
By William James and Michele Kambas
LONDON/NICOSIA, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Greece's new government has proposed ending a standoff with its international creditors by swapping its outstanding debt for new growth-linked bonds, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis was quoted as saying on Monday.
Varoufakis, in London to reassure investors he is not seeking a Wild West-style showdown with Brussels over a new debt agreement, told the Financial Times that Athens would no longer call for a write-off of Greece's 315 billion euros ($360 billion) of foreign debt.
Instead it will seek a "menu of debt swaps" including two types of new bonds - one indexed to nominal economic growth and one he called "perpetual bonds" to replace European Central Bank (ECB)-owned Greek bonds, the newspaper reported.
Next CIA/MI5 moves:
Previously unknown ultra-left anarcho-syndico-crazy-communist group declares war on German Imperialism, stages violent demonstrations against German banks and citizens. Videos on You-Tube show many are wearing police-issue boots.
Merkel expresses outrage and alarm and demands the Greek Government take stern action. Bank branches and ATM's run out of cash and close.
Golden Dawn calls mass demonstrations to defend Greece from the ultra-left anarcho-syndico-crazy-communist threat and blames it on Turkish immigrants. Mosques are burned, Turks and Arabs are beaten in the streets, some die. Police beat back an attempt to take the Parliament building, but somehow demonstrators manage to take and destroy the government broadcast station.
Syriza declares a food emergency and leads mass anti-Nazi demonstrations to confront Golden Dawn. Unknown snipers kill Nazi and anti-Nazi demonstrators and police. Several government ministers are assasinated, ISIS claims credit. The independent truckers association goes on strike shutting the country down, and the actual Greek Communists - including a few surviving veterans of the first Greek Civil War - call on their members to organize Greek communities for armed self defense.
Greece's General Staff declares a state of martial law and a dusk-to-dawn total curfew, declares it is taking the government into its own hands and orders troops into the streets to restore order. Syrzia calls on the rank and file of the police and military to refuse to participate in the Coup and to rally to the government and defend the people.
At this point everything depends on whether the rank and file soldiers and more importantly the junior officers follow these orders.
- If, as happened in Venezuela, they refuse, the revolution is on. Obama loudly denounces Syrzia's anti-democratic power grab and imposes economic sanctions until it resigns.
- If they follow orders, the dark night of fascism begins. Obama loudly denounces the generals, demands they immediately call new elections to return rule to the "right" people, and sends them aid the next week.
- If the military splits, with part rallying to the government, the stage is set for a new Greek civil war. A huge divide opens across Europe, with common people demanding an end to EU support for the Greek Nazis and generals. Syrzia will have no choice but to call on Russia, Iran and China for help, and Obama declares all of Europe is threatened by Russian/Greek agression. Under cover of this commotion, several German, Polish and Romanian combat divisions slip into Ukraine
This is how, in more normal times, the scenario might play out over a year or two. With the international bankers in a panic, we can expect the time scale for some such mayhem to be highly compressed.
And in their haste and fear they will make political, economic and military miscalculations, for better or for worse.
If Syriza fail, Golden Dawn come next.
The Centrists are being abandoned.
After their unconditional bailouts for bankers and austerity for the people policies this is hardly surprising.
Golden Dawn = Black Future!
This scenario assumes EU/US/banksters alliance holds. It's cracking already. Now the banksters' panic really sets in!
Golden Dawn is in jail for being thugs. Good call
How many more of these Socialist/Marxist 'sharing & caring' experiments does the world have to suffer through before people clue in that they don't work & they are very dangerous to their health & well-being?
Socialism kills!
What's happening there is not "socialist/marxist", and I really, REALLY wish people would get off the whole left/right thing already...
It's old...really, really old.
Attemps at collective socialism nirvana is indeed very old ......... and never ever works! It is neither left or right ...just wrong!
I & S,
Get some fresh air. You're taking up a lot of bandwidth.
Lol! Gud idea!
I agree because it was slow motion 'benign' European socialism that let the bankers eventually ultimately run up the public debt to unmanageable levels causing the move to a dictatorship.The bankers could have lobbied for decades to slow spending, but no.
That's not left or righty. Socialism is the promise of free stuff to seduce the public into thinking socialism is a free lunch and that deficits don't matter. But debts do matter and socialism is doomed to failure because if you pay a country not to work that is what they will do.
<sigh> you're putting your political preference cart before the fiscally responsible horse, as usual:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/27/debt-deficit-oecd-c...
Looks like there are only a handful of nations on the entire planet that recognize nothing is 'free', judgin by their surplus balance sheets. care to comment on their political systems?
"The bankers could have lobbied for decades to slow spendin"
But then how would they have managed to successfully enslave so many nations that were well on their way to becoming debt-free (pre-BaselI)?
Greeks have major strength in thier favor - things are already pretty bad. They are already experiencing depression conditions. Likely the claimed improvements are bls grade data.
Perhaps on regaining sovereignty they will resume collecting taxes and seek some shared pain.
About 2 years ago I gave me prediction that when the day comes that it is clear that Greece will not pay their debt and refuse to take any further loans that the ponzi masters here and in the EU so fearful of the eventual destruction of the EURO that they will simply give the Greeks the money to pay back the bankers...I still believe this is what will occur...
They will do anything to preserve the scam...also only an idiot or collection of idiots would believe intertwining 28 nations to one currency in a region that is only 70 years removed from a world war and that has seen two world wars in a century ...would be a good idea?
Next up to bat .... Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy! On deck : France!
Here are 2 more things in play here that Syriza has at their disposal as bargaining chips.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/world/154345/new-greek-pm-awaits-turkeys-mo...
Cyprus...........
http://www.worldbulletin.net/haber/154020/greek-pm-tsipras-freezes-priva...
...
After announcing a halt to the privatisation of the port of Piraeus on Tuesday, for which China's Cosco Group and four others had been short-listed, the government indicated it would put the whole programme on hold.
It said it would stop the sale of stakes in the Public Power Corporation of Greece, Greece's biggest utility, and refiner Hellenic Petroleum, and put other planned asset sales of motorways, airports and the power grid on ice.
...
I'm sure the Chinese would love to establish rental agreements (if they can't own the ports outright) like Guatanamo Bay al a the US and Cuba to establish a naval presence in the mediterranean for their economic interests in Africa. Same with Russia aka some similiar style of agreements they had with the Ukraine concerning Crimea.
And not only that other privatizations being put on hold are of state gas companies like DEPA and DESFA. They aren't cherry picking favorites for privatization either. Creditors (including Gazprom being owed money by companies like DEPA) want these revenue generating assets through backdoor control in lieu of writing down or paying off debt under the guise of forgiveness getting back their investments on the back end of the revenue generation of said assets instead of up front in terms of monthly payments in Euros/Drachmas etc.
Starting to change my mind a little on Syzira - I think they are being really smart here. They are 'attempting' to work things out with ECB and saying things like they'd never ASK Russia for financial assistance, though not saying they wouldn't take it.
Basically, my guess is they default and it will appear to be the ECB's doing, and then they will fall in to the arms of Putin (meeting on 5/9/15) so they come out of it looking pretty good in the eyes of the world and have a fresh start so to speak.
Will be fun to watch.
Desperate people do desperate things!
'Any society that would give up a little libery to gain a little security will deserve neither & lose both!' - Benjamin Franklin
The more things change, the more things stay the same. How many times do we have to listen to this countless flow of bullshit on Greece and its debt problems knowing full and well that Greece will never be able to repay its debt. Period. End of story. Four years ago, two years ago, today, then in two more years, and another two years, so forth and so on. Back and forth, round and round, circle jerking each other off (the ECB and Greece) until one has a premature you know what. I'm getting real bored with these parties looking for their 15 minutes of fame and then fading as fast as the one hit wonder muscians from the 1980's.
This is worst than the movie sequels to Caddyshack, Dumb & Dumber, and 21 Jump Street. For the love of god, will someone do something other than blow smoke up the other parties ass so we can finally have something of real value to watch? Greece, ECB, Commrade Putin, is anyone listening?
Value....the definition has been hijacked by banksters.
"Be careful what you wish for", Grasshopper.
This financial engineering of Greek debt and possible solutions is complicated. The reason it is is because via financial engineering, a giant square peg [Greek finances] is being smashed down into a tiny round hole [EU repayment demands].
We all learn as kids that the square doesn't fit in the round hole. Unless you do massive an violent action to the square. All these talks are aimed at solving the unsolvable problem. Germany is the main player, it is their money that bailed Greece out, and their money that hangs in balance in Spain's 1 trillion debt.
Greece needs to face reality. Exit the EU, default totally, issue their own fiat currency, and get ready for a major long term depression. Either totally restructure how Greece does business, with every favorable law and tax law possible aimed at small business and foreign investment. Bankers? Fire them, as a transition stage, start a new Utility State Bank, it's only role is to pay interest on savings, and to loan money to small and medium business. No profits, no trading desk, the only purpose is a Untility to depositors and a lending aimed at real economy activity.
Greece is the only one who can fix Greece. Either do it, or return to the the EU and follow orders.
I think this constant fucking around and refusing to admit the reality that 300 billion will nevre be paid, and slavery to the EU will strangle Greece for 100 years or more. Greece should look to China for investment, Russia for energy, and BRICS for trading partners. The EU is an evil empire created by financiers, for financiers and bankers and crony capitalists. A group of 80 or so top European Corporations used their political power to create the EU, Banking enterprises comprised the greater share of those corporate entities. Banks now rule where once Kings did, democracy has been ended, replaced by a fake Parliament devoted to banker communist dictatorship and socialism for the 1%. The ECB QE of over a trillion Euro is a wealth transfer to the 1%, just like in the USA. Yet Greece still negotiates with these fuckers?
"I think this constant fucking around and refusing to admit the reality that 300 billion will nevre be paid, and slavery to the EU will strangle Greece for 100 years or more. Greece should look to China for investment, Russia for energy, and BRICS for trading partners. The EU is an evil empire created by financiers, for financiers and bankers and crony capitalists."
Well put. +1,000
"
It isn't German money that bailed out Greece. Germany bailed out Greece with fictitious fiat credit generated on whim and only made possible by German's Target2 balance, which was ironically only possible because of the profligate ways of other Eurozone members in the first place. It's all really nothing more than a vicious circle of bullshit.
Then Greece should pay back their debts with 'fictitious fiat credit' & solve their problem!
Why should they?
Because they elected the politicians who were bought by the moloch to lie about the financing so they could load up the odious debt and rob the naive of anything left of value.
ShaMoo on you for not knowing how the 'blame the victim' game works. People who can't control their dogs use it all the time, and it's a favourite amongst rapists.
Still have not answered why the debt "should" be paid. Im asking for reasons.
Because they 'owe' it? And if they don't they will be decades before the discover their next creditor and will enjoy a crushing depression until then!
So they wont borrow again. So, they will have to live within their means.
You fail to explain what incentive they have to pay.
Because they "owe"? What is this "owing" thing you speak of?
Seriously? Well I can't say for certain, but judging from what I've learned over the years from the Loyal Order of Water Buffaloes resident here on ZH I believe it goes something like this:
Like with any and every contract ever written and signed, every last greek, from the oldest old curmudgeonly pensioner to the tiniest mignon little zygote, had absolutely perfect knowledge, from boilerplate to the fine print, of all Gov't loan agreements ever signed by the politicians they elected, and, that being the case, they each and every one have a responsibility to fulfill to the letter the contractual obligations said pocketed politicians foisted on them on behalf of their campaign contributors, or die trying.
So sayeth the great Mammon.
A "responsibility" is not a reason to act. Im talking about actual incentives, game theory style if you will.
Basically, ponder two scenarios: One, Greece defaults, two, it does not and plays along.
Look into the future and see which one augurs a better outcome for Greece. Look at the actual consequences and forget this responsibility pseudo moral BS.
(gazing into crystal ball)
In your two scenarios, the outcome for Greece is identical.
IMO, genuine responsibility is the principal reason to act.
But setting aside such "moral BS", I'll refer you to Jack Burton's excellent comment above for this round of 'What if?', because I very much doubt that I could put it any better myself.
Pseudo moral*
Didn't Greece have to buy several German made submarines with their part of the bailout money that didn't kick back to the Swells. Give Germany back the subs.
At least the Greeks buy them; the jews get them free
Buying on credit and defaulting is getting something for free.
Germany benefits handsomely, let me say it again HANDSOMELY from the artificial low exchange rate they enjoy. And who keeps the Euro undervalued? The PIGS. So those crumbs they threw to the PIGS are really nothing compared with the benefits they enjoy. If the Germies are not happy they can leave the Euro any time they want. But they know that if they do it their Deutschmark will trade at anything from 50 to 70% above the Euro which will crush their economy. So Merkel can keep barking while everybody knows that German Shepperd bitch will never bite.
The combined debt of the PIGS wipes out Germany many times over! In case you forget they tried this madness long ago and it brought about 'you-know-who!'
Wow. Sounds like Germany has a problem then ... :-)
Remember in 1992 what Clinton told the voters:
Today everybody from Athens to Washington knows that siding with Russia gives you two (China) for the price of one.
Yes, but was he talking about underage children on Epsteins pedophile island?
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/01/22/harvard-law-professors-line... http://gawker.com/flight-logs-put-clinton-dershowitz-on-pedophile-billio... http://gawker.com/report-underage-girl-was-paid-15-000-to-have-sex-with-...Argumentum ex anus is the best defense for Dershowitz.
But if the trial is going bad for D, he may have to have a penectomy, so that his dick can not be introduced in evidence against him
thanks for the link
Maybe all show, put the blame squarely on the inflexible 'nazi' ECB in the minds of most so it appears they had no other choice but to grexit to Russia/China for help. They were trying to negotiate, but ECB not.
That's how I see it. Everyone is bitching about how this new Greek government isn't doing anything, they're backing off, they're folding, etc...
They've been there a couple of weeks for chrissakes! They haven't had time to change the curtains yet...give it a rest! Everyone wants what they want RIGHT NOW! Real life doesn't WORK that way!
They also have to 'play along' to a degree, create the impression that they have exhausted all options, and given their EU 'partners' every chance to come to their senses.
They also have to minimize the trauma to their own citizens, and lead them to a different path that WILL take some getting used to...
THIS is what the EU should have done before imposing draconian austerity rules on the population. But they opted for the full nuclear thing...Perhaps THIS is what the new Greek leadership is trying NOT to do...NOT make the same mistakes the Troika did.
People CAN be reasoned with, and the Greek citizenry are people. They know on some level that what WAS is not sustainable, and maybe they would have been willing to make some hard choices, IF they were given a choice! But no...instead the Troika barges in there and starts barking orders, making insults and threats...any surprise the reaction is "Fuck YOU!"?
Give these new guys a chance, for the love of GOD! They haven't "failed" to do ANYTHING yet. So put away your Adderall-fueled time schedules and let the thing play out before bitching...
Pay Day is on the 25th!
I hate to break this to the tender hearted liberal types but .... the people of Greece destroyed Greece! Good luck putting Humpty Dumpty back together again!
Hello Hello Hello
Shake hands brother Hi Ho
You're always bound to know
A water buffalo
Hello Hello Hello
Greetings fellow buddy
A buffalo as you must know
Is never a fuddy duddy
Hello Hello Hello
I'm glad to see we're proud to be
A water.... buuuuffaaaaallooooooooooo.
Honey, the "people of Greece" have been living there for thousands of years...why is it that Greek destruction only comes about a few years after they introduce this Euro and Union?
The people of Greece have a much better track record than the Euro does...so, maybe it's the Euro that is creating the problem.
Just a thought...
Sweetie, the 'people of Greece' have spent 90 of the past 192 years in financial crisis! Over which time the have racked up SIX sovereign debt defaults! Nobody has been worse!
No wonder you are itchy and scratchy.
Greece threatens to fall, demands to be carried, and will be carried. Just as opening the Berlin Wall instantly delegitimized every communist prison state, the insolvency of one democratic social welfare state is the insolvency of all.
All this economic BS is covering for what may be a nuclear confrontation between ZATO and the RF.
If Russia came to Mexico and said, "hey, we think the yanquis stole the West, we will arm you and help you get it back," the US would respond.
This is insanity.
both sides have capability to render nukes inert in a few seconds
By detonating them?