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BLS Unleashes Whopping Revisions To 2014 Jobs Data, Now Reports 423K Job Gains In November
As reported first thing this morning, in addition to the jobs and wages numbers, perhaps just as importantly, the BLS would revise its entire 2014 jobs data series, which it did today as it noted:
Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2015 reflect updated population estimates. See the notes at the end ot this news release for more information about these changes.
It wasn't kidding: remember that January of 2014 jobs print of 144K which was supposedly "horrible" and was blamed entirely on the snow, and was in fact used by the Fed in its decision-making process. Well, guess what: it was BS, and - following the BLS's revisions - actually turned out to be a whopping 247K.
It gets better: remember that whopping 353K jobs number in November? Well, following the data revision, it was boosted by 20% to a whopping 423K - the second biggest monthly jobs increase in the 21st century!
Here are the details, courtesy of the BLS itself, explaining how it revised, estimated and otherwise massaged the data for the past year:
Effective with data for January 2015, updated population estimates have been used in the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the previous decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics and other information, and some methodological changes in the estimation process.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2014 and earlier months. To show the impact of the population adjustments, however, differences in selected December 2014 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates are shown in table B.
The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 528,000, the civilian labor force by 348,000, employment by 324,000, and unemployment by 24,000. The number of persons not in the labor force was increased by 179,000. The total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate were unaffected.
And breaking it more fully down, what was supposed to be a total gain of 2,952K jobs in 2014 has now been revised to 3,197K.
As it turns out, and as had been expected, the BLS has decided to ignore all those reports of thousands workers laid off in the energy space and mask it all with seasonal adjustment.
And the best news of the day: that average weekly wage you thought you were collecting during all months of 2014? That too was just revised higher across the board.
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"momentum"
We are on our high horses.
"And breaking it more fully down"
Could somebody this word order explain to me?
#WINNING
http://accredited-times.com/2015/02/05/consumers-create-jobs-not-busines...
Your article on Yellen and womens rights is brilliant.
Way cool.. I got one of those great jobs and so did my kid..
Oh wait.. no we didn’t….. WTF??
Doesn't the US have accurate tax data on which to base the labour numbers?
What year is it oer there?
Yes, but it gets "goal-seeked" before presented to the public.
and, 2015.
I love the smell of made up propaganda in the morning!
we'll count the 1% ers twice.
They needed to make room for the 100k that IBM is shedding plus the oil patch plus Radio Shack plus Office Depot plus ...
Can we just castrate some folks at the BLS? Seriously...
but don't forget about the new data miners at Twitter and Facebook.
.
Then you'll love the latest bit from the all-too-senior senator from Arizona:
McCain blames America for Ukraine's use of cluster bombs on residential areas.
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150205/1017844947.html
great article! Just last week I was just telling the guy at Radio Shack how robust the rekovery is ....
Annualized rate of job growth is now a BLAZING 3,000,000 per year, a d many of these are high wage jobs, too!
Anyone who doubts that we're in an economic expansion of epic proportions is A DOOMER!
Get your resumes out there, demand raises/bigger bonuses, YOU ARE IN DEMAND AS AN EMPLOYEE!
Friday Humor right Tyler?
Sniff. MDB woulda dun it better.
Shake Shack and Chipolte are expanding.................oh and not hiring anyone with McDonalds experience.
No wonder I can't find a job, they've hired everybody!
WOW! You're an amazing fucking idiot! Gold and silver are getting smashed to mess up Russia financially as a real war over Ukraine looks more real now.
You're what's insane!! So it's time to pop open your head with something like a .45 that's roaring !
What Aspergers Putin needs help?
... BuLLShit ...
Look over there son a fuck'en retard!
So, that's where Trav777 went.
trav7777.......I never met anybody who knew so much about synthetic debt.....
''Synthetic debt was far larger than housing and residential mortgages. By any means necessary, they grew the credit base. The housing price trend was merely a symptom of a deeper problem''.......trav7777
accredited-times pretty much blows
BLS wanted to release simple statement stating November jobs have been revised "DoublePlusGood".
I've been re-reading Orwell's 1984 so had to blurt out NewSpeak in my personal 2 minute Hate.
NoVa
They are pricing in the mass layoff from Radio Shack that will occur very soon.
How will we buy our resistors and capacitors now?
Did Obama cause Radio Shack's demise because he thought RS was supporting resistors? Is 'resistors' the kinder and gentler way of saying 'terrorists'?
Oh geez.. just wait until the BLS starts counting SS disablity recipients as jobs..
then we can be sure prosperity has returned.
Don't give them ideas. In Illinois, the SEIU decided that everyone who gets a benefit for care of a disabled family member, is employed by the state, and thus owed dues to SEIU. The next logical step, is to regard recipients of SSI as being employed in the care of themselves.
"'And breaking it more fully down'. Could somebody this word order explain to me?"
Written by Yoda, it was.
To quote a fellow worker yesterday - "that's a lot of complicated".
Not Yoda...the sentence is correct.
I have to agree - it's valid english, if not eloquent.
What did they revise? The method to create desired numbers? Or did they make a mistake the first time they found out only after they waded through all the documents? I mean: Is there any number trustworthy from any government?
IF IT STINKS LIKE SHIT, IT PROBABLY IS SHIT.
Yoda: "Shit it is".
simple, just say it in Yodas voice :
"And breaking it more fully down"
Could somebody this word order explain to me?
***edit...shit should have read down...Rand beat me to it.
WOW! This is a simply amazing figure! J Gold and silver are getting absolutely smashed right now, and equities are looking extremely strong. My portfolio is #winning today, my treasuries are up, my S&P 500 positions are up, and all of my short foreign currency positions are up. This is just insane!! It’s time to pop open some champagne because the recovery is officially roaring!
http://accredited-times.com/2015/02/05/consumers-create-jobs-not-busines...
WOW! Sounds like your practice account is awesome. Go MDB.
Your Treasuries are down Troll Bitch
Are these upward revisions meant to provide cover for the Fed talking about raising rates again? Not that they wouldactually do that, of course...but talking has been very effective thus far.
It just goes to show that the best results happen when you listen to accredited experts. They make the best decisions because that is their profession.
Produce the proof
It would be interesting to know, in the same graph, how many people are falling out of he coverage or at least the count for employment.
Maybe the best way to do that would be to superimpose the % of the country who are part of the workforce.
accredited-times pretty much blows
hey mdb, career question for you. do you work from home or do you have to commute to the office in langley every day?
He commutes from home with his mum's sisters boyfriend who makes $7 large a month in the internetz selling widgets. He never knew how much money you could make selling widgets
Sure gave the monkeys a great excuse for a timely paper PM's raid. How convenient.
so I would like to thank the Evil Empire for a nice sale on phyzz today so that we can all BTFD!
Thanks, bitchez!
Paper markets are the reason gold is so high, without speculation in paper contracts, gold price would be much lower, demand for physical is marginal compared to paper demand.
Most people who trade with gold, don't actually want or expect delivery of physical, they only want more $.
Also, I don't hear you guys complain when price is pumped up on that very same paper markets. When it goes down is manipulation, but when it goes up it's not? lol
And who told you this nice lil fairy tale sonny?
If you're gonna go.....GO BIG!
Of course, the larger a lie is, or grows, the more intricate it has to be, therefore more people will believe the larger lie, because they assume that no one would lie on that scale.
$80/oil = 25,000 on Dow
why does this seem logical now?
"When it gets REALLY REALLY serious, you have to lie HUGELY BIG"
J.C. Junker
"If you want to keep your jobs bullshit, you can keep your jobs bullshit."
I take it from your comment that you actually listened to the entire state of the union speech.
I dissected it.....there was nothing there.
that is such bulllshit I have been actively looking for a job since October and there is nothing nothing nothing
move to kalifornia
So Cal? Well yes. If you are going to live on the street it is nice to be somewhere warm with a decent bus system to get around.
Well, I have heard you can make $5219 a month working out of your basement in your spare time while suffering from alcohol dependency.
I sympathize, it took me 9 months to find a job after my last termination. Hang in there, it's a mental marathon more than anything else.
so, this means they know whats coming and they have to "adjust" the previous false #s even higher so the decline doesnt look so bad
Does the BLS really think that anyone out there will believe this shit?
Nobody believed the original numbers, why would anyone with an ounce of common sense believe this tripe?
Far from demonstrating that the BLS was wrong from the beginning it just shows that they're willing to say / print anything without a thought. If it was a business it would be laughed out of existence, but because it's a government agency this shit is tolerated and what they produce accepted.
and at the end of the revision report, it read:
Sincerely,
Barrack Obama
Why is Zero Hedge SOOOOO Doom & Gloom?
It's clear that the recovery is gaining steam.
gaining steam and the sauna door is jammed.
and you turn around and there's bathhouse barry with a sly smirk on his face and a boner in his right hand
gaining steam since 2009.
How many trillions ago was that?
Yes, I am sure interest rates will start going up, any second now...
People clearly don't appreciate your sarcasm.
Celebrate good times, come on!
Hilarious. Perhaps that is what we should call Barry and his band of merry commies from now on- Kool And The Gang!
It will need steam to navigate through all the bubbles and debt land mines that have not gone boom yet.
But it doesn't have anywhere near that kind of steam. Sorry.
Yup... Cleveland "Steam".....
Why again are rates at 0% ?
It's complicated.
Exactly. The Fed and government are talking out of both sides of their mouth.
It's not every decade we see such a vibrant, continuous, robust Rekovery!
Why? Well.... SAY is that a nailgun?
"You're going to believe we're in a recovery if we have to shove it down your fucking throat."
They just turned it up to 11.
Every one in, the water is warm
I'm pleased that we can rely on BLS to provide us with such credible figures. Gallup obviously doesn't know anything and should be investigated by the DOJ.
They are preparing the billion dollar fine as we speak
Transitory
WE HAVE LIFT OFF and have DE COUPLED.
does this mean the teleprompter guy will be on the tellie? oh, please no
At least the revisions came after the State of the Union address. Imaging the boasting if the revisions had come first.
Bullish
You forgot to type the lst 2 letters.
American exceptualism
Well, they did "legalize" domestic propaganda.
ROFL.
Doubling down on the BS.
There are a lot of duplicate numbers in the statistic because of the Q99X2 taking a job last month.
I'm so grateful they have revised these numbers in the past, maybe that means my friends who are long term unemployed will get paychecks since the BLS says they actually DID have jobs.
Are these the same people that do the Global Warming...now called Climate Change numbers? 10 degrees here today
meh...those will be revised upward next year. Just wait...you'll remember how balmy it was then.
Wow. All those jobs created in Jan 2014 when the vortex gained ramming speed.
And the economy still tanked by 4% in 1Q14.
I guess companies hired people 'just because'.
Something isn't lining up.
No, you're looking at it all craw... The economy was down BECAUSE Of all the new workers - it's hard on the economy to support wages and insurance. New workers are a net loss to the economy.
As an aside, we have always been at war with Eurasia.
Not to mention that people gainfully employed have less time to go shopping.
that's why the stock price always goes up with layoffs
Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you are part of the tribe!!!
All this great economic data will give investors massive confidence in the health of the U.S. economy which will result in a massive misallocation of capital.
BLS is hoping for a self-fulfilling prophecy.
j
k
Raise the Rates, They are behind the curve
I am afraid we are approaching a time when there will be random, spontaneous events expressing the sheer and utter despair, anger and frustration by the people.
People without being in a protest march will throw bricks into shop windows, public infrastructue will be greatly vandalized although they will be not too sure of the ongoing benegits.
It's called lying with statistics.
Record Harvest, Comrade !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What's a seasonal adjustment?
"What's a seasonal adjustment?"
That's when you decide to eat the bad bacon, and for the next day and a half your skid marks turn into burnouts!
http://youtu.be/l9CKLQPFQ_g
Seasonal adjustments are what the BLS does to economic data to make what was previously honest and accurate data even more perfectly honest and accurate.
For your future reference, on page 326 of the BLS Latin/English cross reference dictionary (2nd ed.), the term "seasonal adjustment" derives from the Latin phrase "fabricatus poopus del toro."
I guess we can expect that massive rate hike any day now. Waiting.......
Rate hike "Waiting......."
You'll have to wait until hell freezes over.
Oh, I know ;-)
As the END draws ever-nearer, the LIES keep getting bigger and bigger. This is the best indicator that the END is very close.
This racecar is running DEEP in the red.... she's gonna blow!!!
Being on welfare now equals having a job?
I think the market is having a rut-roh moment. Nice pop on wages. Now jobs revisions are making ms market think "Yellen might be gellin for a rate increase" and it looks like it is trying to tip toe back down to earlier levels without anyone noticing.
You just can't make this stuff up. Oh. Wait.
bullshitting anyway, might as well go full retard!
Gold to zero but it's great for oil. Hope no one here was long gold and short oil, LOL! I can see all those gas guzzlers burning up those surplus inventories lickety split as all these newly employed people rush out to buy trucks from GM that get 14mpg so they can be the king of the road.
What a sham. The official numbers are mumbo jumbo and utterly meaningless. The only thing that differentiates this "recovery" from the Great Depression is that soup lines have been replaced by EBT cards. The scam will continue a lot longer than we think possible, but people in the know understand that this will not end well and are preparing accordingly.
Who's YO Daddy, world? USA USA USA
Yet 46 Million people on Food Stamps and the number keeps going up.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Fun with numbers, it's just like magic. Slight of hand smoke and mirrors. Matters not what the truth may be as long as you believe what the magician is doing.
At this rate unemplyoment should be around 4% by years end. Reality does not figure into the gubmints figures, just believe what you are told.
It has become a national security priority not to admit our economy is doing worse than Russia's. If anything, the BLS is sending a message that they know their data is clownshoes by reporting such nonsense.
I am so glad everything is solved. Nirvana. We finally arrived. Interesting day ahead.
Theres that inflation...lets see if rates will rise.
XxoO
Open the borders, Open the borders
So should we really care about reading any economic release, or considering the impact it will have on *markets*?
No. That's my answer. Yours?
It would appear that if the market results do not fit the narrative, they create a different one by changing the mask. Nothing in the US Constitution says they can't do that. And if it did, they obviously stopped paying attention to the Constitution anyway. You get better information watching the Baltic Dry Index and talking to people in the construction industry. Also, watch Caterpillar stock performance. That to me points the direction of the world economy better than these fudged government numbers. As far as the US, watch the people on handouts. Food stamp usage drop yet? Nope. Car sales take off yet (with solid loans)? Nope. Most college grads finding jobs that pay over $100K? Nope. I like to go to the inflation calculator com site. Using the government's own under-reported inflation rates, I punch in my Dad's earnings in 1963. He never went to college. Right into the work force, worked for a newspaper. He earned $15,000 a year. On his pay, we paid off our mortgage in eight years. My Mom stayed home, she didn't have to work. His 2014 equivalent pay is $116,047.06. Know anyone out of high school in the last couple of years getting this pay? Try it: http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
This all looks so easy. Sell my gold, by stocks and live happily ever after. I think not.
Of course all meaningless crap....there is no truth coming out of MSM or government mouths...just lie upon lie.
All a game for some other reason...they want the USD higher? Must want to smash US exports some more.
Ahhhhhh...the smell of desperation in the morning...smells like, VICTORY
I don't know anything about their methodology, but what do they know more in Jan 2015 about the jobs created in, let's say, jan 2014, compared to June or September 2014 ? Should I expect the figures to be revised once again in a year, or a decade ?
The Obama clown show continues full speed ahead.
How were Christmas Retail sales?
They must have been wonderful since I haven't seen anything about them in the media.
They're now counting the people on the corner with the signs that say "Will work for food."
It just hasn't been formally announced. Kind of like not announcing the bank employees who will steal and lie for bonuses. You understand.
If these numbers were real.oil would be trading at $150 a barril,not $50 a barril..
fku, winners are winning, losers are complaining, when you were in your twenties, how many forty yr olds were bitching, come on guys, the old trades aint working, time to wake up and think anew, maybe suck up to those winning, so whats the trade?
What is a seasonal adjustment?
I think it's when you take a pinch of this and a dash of that and... voila!!
FROM SHADOW STATS: January 9th, 2015
• Revisions to Unemployment Seasonal-Adjustments Demonstrated Concurrent-Seasonal-Factor Reporting Issues • Payroll and Unemployment Data Both Heavily Skewed by Unstable and Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments • December Unemployment Rates: 5.6% (U.3), 11.2% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats) • Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Jumped to 5.2% in December, Highest Since July 2009Right. They faked the data. Three months AFTER the election.
Call me crazy, I don't believe it. I'm buying PMs on sale. Wackey I am
That's strange...why did John Clifton, CEO of Gallup go on CNBC and say the job numbers were all lies?
Clifton said he worried for his life saying it, and questioned whether he would even get home safe after going on CNBC.
I didn't see it, but imagine Liesman stare could have killed.
Did Clifton say? He was worried for his life and worried about getting home.
Had no idea.