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Did The BLS Forget To Count Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?
One of the convenient things about the sharp plunge in crude and its subsequent and acute impact on energy company staffing levels, is that due to its concentrated nature one can keep track of precisely how many layoffs corporations in the energy sector announced in January. And as Bloomberg helpfully tracks, there were at least (and surely many more that were not unaccounted for) 18,000 terminations by US companies in the high-paying energy sector (and thousands more by foreign companies who have laid of US workers which are not shown in this total).
According to third-party tracker Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the number is roughly the same with 21,322 job cuts in January in the energy space attributed to the tumble in oil prices. Texas alone accounted for 19,833 of these layoffs.
“We may see oil-related job cuts extend well beyond those industries involved with exploration and extraction,” said John A. Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm. He warned the retail, construction and entertainment sectors in regions that have benefited from the oil boom could face challenges.
The BLS report? Well, according to the January payrolls report, the number of Oil and Gas Extraction workers declined to 199.5K in January from 201.4K in December, a virtually non-exstant drop of 1,900 workers (and even the not seasonally adjusted, raw data shows a tiny drop of just 3.1K workers).
Visually, the outlier is as follows:
So our question is: did the BLS choose to ignore these thousands of jobs losses, or did it simply forget?
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"Forgot" implies inadvertence.
who in the right mind believes in theses numbers !!!!!!!
Those who control the narrative control the mass mind.
It's obvious isn't it? People who understand math are conspiracy theorists.
Isaac Newton is a conspiracy theorist.
It was a rounding error by BLS.....
It was more a decimal point error...1 point 8, eighteen, whatever...
I don’t understand the big deal..
I have been drilling all along and there has been plenty of lube.
The job market is spent
Layoff / Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Most of the announced job losses take effect over the next 6-12 months. Gonna take 3-4 months before these start showing up in labor statistics. 6-9 months down the road foreclosures in Texas will start to boom. Construction jobs in residential, commercial, and industrial will all fall off a cliff. The hit will come, there is just a lag time.
Those job losses have been noted and will be accounted for in the revisions where few will notice..
I thought it went he who controls the spice controls the universe...
"Mass mind" - an oxymoron
you are all unamericanly cynical. In seasonally adjusted terms, they not only kept their jobs but got a raise - such a nice raise that they were able to hire subcontractors of their own
If anything, Newton was a conspirator. He took great pleasure in punishing people for coin clipping and he snubbed the fuck out Leibniz. A very intelligent man, but he was an asshole.
The only number that really matters is "payroll tax receipts".
Everything is awesome when you are part of the team!
Just thinking about my home state and all the jobs and corporations that went away leaving burger king jobs....
The country is fucked and everyone in except DC and NY knows it.
Nobody in California, Oregon, or Washington gets it...
Haters and going to hate. THe FED has mangined to jump start this economy. And someone asked the if things are so good then why is the interest at zero? My Answer = who cares....the FED has convinved the world that we are great and they will accept our money printing and zero interest rates. Enjoy this ride, it's awesome. Fed is winning!
BLS stole the line from Steve Martin in ancient Saturday Night Live shows:
"I forgot..."
So, congress didn't know what 1 + 1 equaled, so they created a commission to find out. The commission couldn't figure it out either, but they were able to identify some people who worked with numbers all the time would possibly tell them. So they set up a hearing and invited a mathematician, and economist, and an accountant.
The mathematician was the first witness and and the chairman asked him, "What does 1 + 1 equal?" Bewildered, the mathematician said, "Mr, Chairman, 1 + 1 equals 2." The chairman then asked, "Always?" And the mathematician responded, "Yes, always. Each and every time." The chairman thanked him for his testimony, and he was excused.
The second witness was the economist, and the chairman asked him, "What does 1 + 1 equal?" The economist thought for a second and said, "Well, it depends. All other things being equal, and depending upon seasonal factors and variations, and smoothing of outliers, 1 + 1 equals 2, plus or minus." The chairman thanked him for his testimony, and he was excused.
The third witness was the accountant, and the chairman asked him, "So, what does 1 + 1 equal?" The accountant looked around the room furtively and said, "Well Mr. Chairman, what do you want it to equal." The chairman thanked him, and gave him a $10,000,000 contract to advise his committee staff.
Yes. People need to research what it meets to "goal seek" or have "targeted outcomes".
cue the lego movie music... ..."everything is awesome..."
You mean that when you get into a car accident, have a totaled car, broken femur, 4 broken ribs, a collapsed lung, multiple organs bruised, a broken nose, a concussion, yet your iPad went flying out of the car and landed on a soft spot of grass unbroken, so it is a good day, because your iPad beat expectations? That kind of goal seeking?
Yes!! Exactly that kind of outcome. Excellent!
We're producing 3 million, mostly high wage, jobs a year right now this is a massive economic expansion in the U.S. Economy!
Look at the MASSIVE UPWARD REVISIONS!
4.5% GDP growth is here!
This is GREAT NEWS FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS! You will be in a position to get hired at a much higher wage, demand better benefits, more time off, and higher bonuses!
5% to 6% bank account/CD yields for savers are about 12 to 14 months away!
Let's have a block party!
A block party of cardboard boxes--sounds good!
Thanks for SHOUTING this from the rooftops, as if it ISN'T SHOUTED LOUDLY, many more people will know it's all LIES. ;)
Finally someone who understands statistics. Instead of berating the the geniuses at the BLS look at the facts, YES FACTS. With all the foreign IT workers coming in on H1-B visas, (because American's are too dumb and lasy to work on computers) there are millions of job openings at fast food restaurants. The job layoffs in the oil sector is only 'noise' and carefully planned vicious propoganda by terrorists hell bent on destroying the US.
Trust the BLS!
Ministry of Truth
"(because American's are too dumb and lasy to work on computers)"
Dude..., let spell-check work for ya...
He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.
It continues to amuse me how many "regular" folks buy into this farce we call BLS data.
Geez, you sound like this guy:
http://wariscrime.com/new/6-grand-illusions-keep-us-enslaved/
We're quibbling over 21,000 jobs when Obama created 14 quadrillion jobs in November alone? I mean, seriously. He's fixed the roads, he's lowered the sea level, he's made healthcare universal and easily affordable AND he's created so many good paying middle class jobs we don't have enough people to fill them all.
What more could we ask the Kenyan to do for his adopted (invaded?) country?
Leave?
Well played, Sir...
MDB is jealous of your post, nice work.
Gracious - with all that teleprompter work he's done - whew! - just let him play golf already...poor guy...
I guess it depends on what your definition of is, is.
Devotional and graymnzrc. Oh, wait said right mind...........
But if I guess the bad number correctly - CNBC will reward me with an autographed condom from Jim Cramer & Kelly use tampon! That is all that counts....
"who in the right mind believes in theses numbers !!!!!!!"
Yes, it would take belief, indeed, that awith a dash of blind faith.
Are we taking government figures seriously now?
And if so, WHY?
Why exactly! Isn't the corn included in the shit that comes from the beasts ass all traders daily sustenance?
Because it's fun to observe the blatant plot holes.
They were added to the seasonal adjustment factor, then the actual number was discounted by another seasonal adjustment based on weighted averages, adjusted for inflation, poulation gains, productivity factors and weather factors spread over several centuries.
Fossil fuel energy is evil....therefore we don't count those jobs.
Precisely, better off without them.
That's labor and talent that could be working in the solar panel industry.
They'll find their way there, eventually.
They didn't forget.
The people working in the energy sector mostly work with a contractor contract.
Independent contractors.
So it's cheaper to just kick them out if needed.
Sure they make more money but they carry a lot more risk.
Isn't that a list of contractors?
#bringbackmyjob
'When it becomes serious, you have to lie'
And truth is the first casualty in war - expecally currency war.
They're not lying; simply rebalancing the truth.
The only thing they forgot was the truth. But what else is new?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yloaBw80fV4
Did the BLS forget to count thousands of energy job losses?
That's rhetorical, right?
Lies, Damn Lies, and BLS
I think people are missing the point they are not trying to fool the public (aka people) they are trying to fool the algo's...they could care less what we think...
Those job losses were "seasonally adjusted" away! (As the BLS gives us a wink and a nod!)
I don't know why we even bother thinking about this obvious financial hoodlum propaganda toolery.
exactly .... forgetfulness, incompetence and fraud are all in the BLS toolbox.
And don't forget that December is the month chosen for vacations by those BLS employees with seniority. The second string compiles these numbers.
+1 extra
Newly hired college graduates with good paying jobs.
I heard a news radio piece the other day about how BLS misrepresents UE as a result of how it calculates it. Went on to say that UE really is much higher.
Of course we here all know this. What is interesting is that it is going mainstream. The facade is cracking.
The "facade" as you call it is NOT cracking. If anything we are seeing that the policies of the last few years are bearing fruit. Face it, equities are higher on this news, commodities are higher, and the USD is higher. The only thing NOT higher this morning is gold and silver. No surprises here.
Patience. Like snowflakes on a mountain top... eventually there is an avalanche. Who of us can even guess when the balance is finally tipped though? ( HT to Cog. Dis. for the analogy).
truth is treason in the empire of lies..
The missing energy workers will finally be 'found' during next February's BLS 'adjustment'.
They sound like Chilean miners.
Very few Americans take this to heart. The Farce is strong with the masses...
"The only thing that can be expected from the next US president is more war, more murder, and more oppression of the gullible American people. People as uninformed and as gullible as Americans have no future. Americans are a dead people that history is about to run over."
Paul Craig Roberts
That's what 4th revisions are for
They missunderanalized.
New BLS definition: Layoffs are no longer considered to be part of the work force.
Yep, they "forgot" like the IRS "lost" some emails.
US throwing its people into poverty for the sake of geopolitical games.
Just make shit up....US is thriving..lol...strong USD......illegal to feed the poor..is not just for Mayors but also Whitehouse policy.
BLS actually means BS.
I'm concluding their surveys were done on New Years day, early, when everyone woke up still drunk from the previous night of partying.
"...yeah sure, I hired 50 people this month. Now fuck off, my heads throbbing."
This is fight club, if its good news its obviously a lie. If its bad news, it is gospel.
That's an oversimplification.
In the broader picture the BLS methodology alone smacks of deceit. Look at the history of how they calculate unemployment numbers, it's all a sham.
The point here is that one entity (with more credibility than the BLS) reported in excess of 20k layoffs in the o&g sector that clearly aren't reflected in the BLS data, so something, once again, isn't right with what the BLS is doing. I will say though that this revision report by the BLS has some whoppers in it.
Sure, might be a tad heavy on the doomer side here but when you can drive around your town and tell that things aren't right you know lies are being told.
I for one am happy about the recent increase of bitching on ZH.
It is either a sign of some capitulation by weaker hands or an increase in the number and desperation of trolls. Either way it's a good thing though it does get annoying at times (I love MDB and Liberal but some of the wannabes suck at it).
Neither. It's a sign that ZHers are finally accepting the fact that the Fed really does have the economy under control. With a rate hike this summer we'll be seeing a positive step towards returning to normalcy. This will reward savers, and at the same time investors will continue to benefit from a stronger economy.
Rate hike? Holy shit that's funny. You motherfuckers better be around when the shit hits fan. I'll be pissed if the trolls go silent when it occurs. You're faggot pussies so I'll give a preemptive "told ya so".
+1 for "preemptive told ya so"
Maybe things are getting better and ZH has been fear mongering for far too long? Just a thought perhaps?
Would you trust any organization that goes back and revises to this extent?
Look, I do not know as I don't have access to the data myself. Can we trust ZH too? I love this site but the it has been crying wolf for years now, more than half a decade already.
Nice handle. Any good Scripture for us this morning?
Something light, positive and uplifting please.
You are small minded. The nickname is not linked to any religion at all, dumbass. It has everything to do with an 80s band who in 1993 had a world tour using ... Devotional.
Do you get out much, dumbass atheist?
crying wolf for years now, more than half a decade already.
Wolf.....oh really?
GALLUP CEO: Number of Full-Time Jobs as Percent of Population Lowest It's Ever Been...
Ever <--- kinda hard to spin that word.
Basically a permabear blog needs to spin the news in a bearish way. When oil was rising, it was bad for the economy. Now oil is falling, it is also bad for the economy... either way buy gold (down over 2% today).
So you say the UE numbers and the revisions are accurate? And who said anything about oil or buying gold? Nice deflection from the topic at hand stooge.
The trend is job gains is undeniable.
The trend in job gains is in denial.
FIFY
Your name reveals one of the easiest ways to make money EVER in history. Just short the fuck out of silver before a jobs report. It is as easy as taking the virginity from a Kardashian.
What makes you think anyone here intends to sell gold after buying it?
Devotional just got a promotion.
Your optimism betrays.
Umm the US is a couple years over due for a normal market correction.you are a propagada vici
Indeed maybe things are getting better. But only because we're digging a deeper hole of debt.
Do you really not understand the destruction wrought by the financialization of everything? Because of this, production in the US (and many other places) is equivalent to the Chinese building empty cities.
Things are produced not based upon their demand, but upon keeping up appearances of solvency.
Exactly how many empty houses and acres of rotting new cars does the world need again?
"It's not a lie if you believe it." - George Costanza (Seinfeld)
It's called a "delusion" in that case.
If the BLS can go back and radically Revise an entire year of data then the MONTHLY MEANS NOTHING NOW. The entire veracity of their information is compormised.
One need only go back to 1984.
We don't get the facts we get the FED/Gubmint WET DREAMS.......Dow only up 5 points and Nasdaq down......hmmm you think the whole country is no onto their lying games? Anyone believe this crap anymore
They only count the energy sector when they're adding jobs...REMEMBER!!!! "This is transitory"...No need to count it
"Did The BLS Forget To Count Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?"
"Did The BS Forget To Count Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?"
fixed
We are in a currency war.
You're being fed lies by the government.
We are in a currency war.
You're being fed lies by the government.
and they're delicious.
How else could anybody stomach them?
They "misremembered" like Brian Williams.
The FED is Erckle....so is the GUBMINT "Did I do Dat????"
Quick cut to the truth, on W NBC......Brian Williams reporting on the BLS BS.
Brian Williams take a new gig at the BLS?
It's total fraud and no one can stop these liars. So sad for real hard working Americans.
I don't see how you can make this conclusion.
I don’t believe anything the government tells me. I found that out after I went through their schooling. What I learned there was obviously propaganda and half-truths. Did anyone’s economics, business, history or finance classes get into the Federal Reserve? I mean really get into it. Not just that they are the central bank and control monetary policy. Did you learn that the Fed was established by private bankers in secret? Did you learn that the IRS was established the same exact year? Did you learn that they have devalued the dollar by 95%? Did you learn that they aren’t a private organization and have not been audited? The corporate media and the government only report what they want us to know and sweep the rest under the rug. It seems like the lies are starting to spill out from under the rug.
Buy gold and silver to protect your wealth while it is still affordable. Once these lies are visible to the masses, the collapse will come quickly. If you want to get your loved on board with using silver, these candles with silver coins may help: https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers?ref=hdr_shop_menu They will see the real value of money when they realize that their silver coin is worth 12-17 times its face value in melt value alone.
Nothing rigged to see here....please move along.
I'll believe this data when 1 of the 37 mexicans that live down the street in a two bedroom house find gainful employment.
What difference, at this point, does it make?
Goyim so blind. Erica Groshen head of BLS is Bolshevik. She is tribe member. BLS under kosher control. Work visas counted as “new jobs”. White Amerikans still losing many jobs. Being replaced with hoards of non-whites. All part of long term kosher plan to mix out white race and western Christian culture. Makes Amerika safer for us and easier to control. Starving whites no threat to kosher control. Very malleable that way. Listen to your Rabbi. Told you 5 days ago we drop gold price big this week. More to come. OY! OY! OY!
Bull Lying Shit
Admitting those job losses took place means admitting Obama's grand plan to mess with oil prices was a massive mistake. Those job losses will never be admitted to. So far Obama has been doing the socialist play book of failure to a "T". He cannot admit that nothing he does works.
Saudi Arabia is messing with oil prices, taking hundreds of billions of dollars in losses for a longer term strategy of attempting to shake out the low margin oil companies so that several years down the road they will be the dominant global supplier.
The Saudis know more about the carbon mandate other countries have agreed to and that that means carbon based fuels will have to drastically be cut down, and that they will have to leave forever nearly 300 billion barrels in the ground.
Saudi Arabia is a puppet state. It has been since Lawrence of Arabia walked its sands. Did you see the movie? The US and China are fighting for its control. China's winning.
So China and/or the U.S. alternating pulling Saudis strings??
I doubt that very much.
See what you think after reading this:
http://www.energypost.eu/historic-moment-saudi-arabia-sees-end-oil-age-c...
Obozo's policies make China stronger.
He's either doing this intentionally, or he's incompetent.
If it's intentional, it's treason.
Be patient everyone. Like in 2008, it will be obvious when mass layoffs start. The oil industry will lead the way.
We are in a currency war now.
2008 was different.
FDR started one of those interwar
FDR started one of those 1933
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Economic_Conference
The Conference was "torpedoed" by U.S. President Roosevelt in early July, when Roosevelt denounced currency stabilization.However, FDR knew that, while American exports comprised 1/6th of world trade, and American imports comprised 1/8th of world imports, these totals only comprised 5% of American gross domestic product, compared to 25% for Great Britain. He also knew that the European bankers, led by the British Empire (mistakenly called the "Commonwealth"), wanted to tie America down to their deflationary program, which would fix the dollar to trade at $3.50 to the pound sterling. (FDR, Champion of Freedom, by Conrad Black)
By taking the dollar off the gold standard during the 100 Days, it now traded with the pound in a range $ 4 to 4.50, thus making American exports more available to European trading partners. FDR had thus "devalued" the dollar to promote raising domestic farm, and other prices. This had actually raised American wheat prices from 30 cents to One dollar in 1933.
Then after Dictator FDR's 4th term, the economy finally recovered. I don't think it was a coincidence.
add people with math skill to the list of domestic terrorists.......
There are other possible explanations.
We are in a currency war.
Any weakness the US show will be exploited by China.
They probably stuffed the workers down the well and capped it
There can be only one logical conclusion; When these 18,000 oil patch workers had their jobs "terminated",they actually had their lives "terminated" as well..
Lies, lies .lies: just like the old creaky USSR in the late 80's.
Good point - not a lot of difference anymore is there.
U-6 is 11.3%
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject – Don’t forget to read the special notice in left column.
Has Gallup taken one of those Academi flying lessons without-a-parachute yet...?
Produktion at No 6 traktor faktory up by 20%!
Horosho robatayetcye, comrade!
"Family Video is Hiring. Join the Team Today!"
LOL - Video stores are hiring.
don't worry : first step is to revise and inflate up, so when reality of job losses will kick in, there will be sufficient fat to absorb the hit. Sounds like usual process.
don't worry : first step is to revise and inflate up, so when reality of job losses will kick in, there will be sufficient fat to absorob the hit. Sounds like usual process.
It's amazing that nobody asks the most obvious question (ZH'ers excluded). Since all employers must submit at least monthly payroll. Why do they need estimates and complex algorithms?
They, meaning the governments of the world and the likes of this shady outfit BLS, are not just losing control of the narrative, they have almost lost it.
Been working for a great old couple today of the tender age of 75 and 85 years young respectively and even they dont believe this shit no more. There is only so much pissing down folks necks and telling them its raining the populations will take.
We are winning my friends, the monster is awakening, and I am more than sure we will see something of epic proportions in my lifetime.
;-)
I think they are just making the narrative up now because there is nowhere else to go. They don't even care if they are caught up in lies.
Naturally the split second that companies ANNOUNCE they intend to lay people off, those people immediately ran out and applied for unemployment benefits in order to be counted as unemployed. The 3 workers that weren't contractors and actually eligible for unemployment that is.
For all the bitching about seasonal adjustments and such I havent seen where the BLS has actually changed their methodologies.
The more likely reason for the unemployment weirdness is simply that what is happening in the employment space doesn't fit well with how employment has been measured historically.
As someone who supplies data to companies I can attest it is nearly impossible to change methodologies without a huge amount of warning and justification. Companies make decisions on this data. You can't just go changing distributions willy nilly.
For instance, my understanding is that part timers have always been counted the same as full timers. Just because there has been a huge surge in part timers doesn't mean the BLS can simply change how they count them to make cranks like ZH happy.
The perception on WS that all jobs are created equal by the BLS is absurd.
It's not strength, but weakness.
Just like the dollar's rise is not strength, but weakness.
Smart people know this.
Only suckers are buying into it.
If you are providing data that cannot be qualitatively analyzed, you are producing bullshit. A minimum wage job created is not equal to a $25/hr manufacturing job. Totals only are relatively worthless except as propaganda.
And if you eliminate every category from 'unemployed' that brings the rate up in order to have a 'good' number, you are flat out lying.
I hope China calls the US out on this lie by buying more gold at discount prices.
The US is giving its gold away at these prices.
Obozo (the CFR?) is (intentionally?) destroying America.
to be fair, the U2 did increase a tiny bit, but it is still a scam
We oiled some folks