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"Don't Be Out Of The Office June 17th"
As UBS' Maury Harris proclaims in the headline, "don't be out of the office on June 17th" - the mid-year FOMC meeting. Today's jobs data will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly, and that is being rapidly 'priced-in' to the short-end of the yield curve as implied rates surge...
Via UBS,
Don't be out of the office June 17th
Earnings jump 0.5% m/m, now 2.2% y/y
Solid payroll gains and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate are overshadowed by a jump in average hourly earnings which took the year-over-year rate of earnings growth to 2.2%. With other measures of wages pointing towards normal wage gains the data today will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly.
Unemployment up 0.1pp, but participation up 0.2pp
The unemployment rate did inch up to 5.7% but the participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7%. Even excluding population control shifts, the household employment figure jumped sharply.
Solid report, solid income flows
The combination of a long workweek, the jump in earnings and a 257,000 gain in payrolls (404,000 including revisions) suggests a sharp pickup in aggregate labor income.
* * *
Quite a jump in rate expectations post-payrolls...
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All about messing up Russian efforts to de-dollarize oil and reduce their military spending capability
It also puts pressure on US corps to re-patriate their foreign cash that's losing value.
AH yes, the old 'we'll shoot ourselves in the head to distract the enemy' ploy.
Yeah but watch how much faster the Fed wants to raise rates as the war over Ukraine heats up.
The Gubmint and the Fed KNOW a war with Russia over Ukraine is VERY unpopular and Russia would not stop there if they took moar of it.
So jacking rates to jack up the Dollah and crush gold and oil is the best weapon now to rob Russia of the cash they need to build up their military for future acquisitions.
It's funny how that's the exact US sanctions against Japan, cutting off oil and steel, right before Pearl Harbor.
Now that's an interesting point.
But did Tojo have Asperger's Syndrome too?
The historical implications would be stunning!
Please raise rates. I wish a motherfucker would raise rates.
With the rest of the world at NIRP, raising the short does zilch. If they want rates to go up, they have to start selling off the balance sheet.
Right, you can't just dictate a rate, the market sets the rate. Of course now everything is artificial, so no rules of reality apply....just how the Central Bankstering cartel wants it.
FDRallOverAgain was squarely in the camp that the market leads and the Fed follows.
But I'm seeing arguments on both sides of this. Look at comments section in to http://angrybearblog.com/2012/05/who-determines-short-term-interest.html
If Mr Chairmanwoman raises rates they'll just have to retreat the next day.
Mr Yellin can get the rate raising chatter gone by raising rates .01% then spike the football and resume printing for the banks.
That is what I am expecting.
One rate hike. Make a big show of it to build confidence. Pray to any and every god that it doesn't cause an asset collapse. Continue stealth QE.
When they do raise rates, and they probably will, we'll finally find out how much bullshit is being foisted on the US by these federal agencies
isnt plosser or some fed guy set to speak later today?
Yup.
DavidC
This 'everything has never been more awesome' meme is like chugging maple syrup, kinda good at first but you're gonna puke pretty quick.
per BLS manufacturing employment
november +45K
december +26K
january +22K
from census exports
october $198.625 billion
november $196.427 billion
december $194.880 billion
from census new orders all manufacturing
october -0.7%
november -1.7%
december -3.4%
I can not wait for them to raise rates......I figure they get to about 1-1.5% before the economy locks up and implodes.
Yes but think how many years they have to slowly wiggle rates up .01% increments before they get to 1%.
about the wage gains ... sustainable?
productivity out yesterday ... expected +0.2% ... what we got -
"Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 1.8 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.2 percent and hours worked increased 5.1 percent."unless output ramps up look for layoffs/cutbacks in labor (business no likey the cut into profit)
We are always right, because, when we’re wrong we make things right again.
Janet
what a tool
What is the TOTAL payroll income for each month? We only get the "average hourly" earnings - which includes NBA players, and waiters!
In the end it is only money that matters to the economy! I'm sure such data is available a month later, and wish the "financial media" would include it even as a lagging indicator in their charts.
Anyone have a link to such charts, instead of making ones own?
table B-3 gives average weekly earnings
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/taxquery.html
'Todays labor report will only serve to boost Fed confidence that they're reading the economic tea leaves correctly'.....bwaaa ha ha ha haaaa!! Good one!
It should read...
You should have left "the office" 6 months ago, because what is now unfolding will include several conventional and nuclear "accident(s)"... Don't believe any of us will need to worry too much at this point for Janet Yellen's canned speech on the latest round of "taper" moving forward!...
Visibly shaking with laughter!!!
And even if you're in the office, what are you supposed to do....mash the 'buy all' button with both fists? Whatever.
And even if you're in the office, what are you supposed to do....mash the 'buy all' button with both fists? Whatever.
"."
Silver and gold are getting monkey hammered again on all this great economic news...
fact that the FED needs to raise rates so it can lower them again "when needed" and that it's all for show not included off course...
So does this mean some more folks will be suicided June 18th?
I may just be a dummy but the "interest rate expectation" chart seems to be very closely in line with the first really large (as opposed to normal freaking big) government debt maturity/refinance
c'mon you fuckwads! i need to refinance at 3.00%! don't let it go now!
this is definitely meant to talk up the dollar. really ironic in a post ww2 kind of way. i'd move to japan if the dollar went back to 360 again.
the game seems to be to create the conditions for massive capex(for what?) investment overseas with all the sequestered dollars multinationals are holding. a strong dollar not only encourages investment for dollar holders but also for the yuan and chinese investment. this is the new version of an old kickstarter.
It's not reading that's at issue. It's reporting. It's more cooked than the turkey at the Griswold family Thanksgiving.