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"Don't Be Out Of The Office June 17th"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As UBS' Maury Harris proclaims in the headline, "don't be out of the office on June 17th" - the mid-year FOMC meeting. Today's jobs data will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly, and that is being rapidly 'priced-in' to the short-end of the yield curve as implied rates surge...

 

 

Via UBS,

Don't be out of the office June 17th

 

Earnings jump 0.5% m/m, now 2.2% y/y

 

Solid payroll gains and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate are overshadowed by a jump in average hourly earnings which took the year-over-year rate of earnings growth to 2.2%. With other measures of wages pointing towards normal wage gains the data today will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly.

 

Unemployment up 0.1pp, but participation up 0.2pp

 

The unemployment rate did inch up to 5.7% but the participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7%. Even excluding population control shifts, the household employment figure jumped sharply.

 

Solid report, solid income flows

 

The combination of a long workweek, the jump in earnings and a 257,000 gain in payrolls (404,000 including revisions) suggests a sharp pickup in aggregate labor income.

*  *  *

Quite a jump in rate expectations post-payrolls...

 

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Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:07 | 5751710 Headbanger
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All about messing up Russian efforts to de-dollarize oil and reduce their military spending capability

It also puts pressure on US corps to re-patriate their foreign cash that's losing value.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:13 | 5751740 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH yes, the old 'we'll shoot ourselves in the head to distract the enemy' ploy.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:18 | 5751765 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah but watch how much faster the Fed wants to raise rates as the war over Ukraine heats up.

The Gubmint and the Fed KNOW a war with Russia over Ukraine is VERY unpopular and Russia would not stop there if they took moar of it.

So jacking rates to jack up the Dollah and crush gold and oil is the best weapon now to rob Russia of the cash they need to build up their military for future acquisitions.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:36 | 5751855 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It's funny how that's the exact US sanctions against Japan, cutting off oil and steel, right before Pearl Harbor.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:58 | 5751953 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Now that's an interesting point.

But did Tojo have Asperger's Syndrome too?

The historical implications would be stunning!

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:06 | 5751716 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Please raise rates.  I wish a motherfucker would raise rates.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:19 | 5751774 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

With the rest of the world at NIRP, raising the short does zilch.  If they want rates to go up, they have to start selling off the balance sheet.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:28 | 5751822 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, you can't just dictate a rate, the market sets the rate. Of course now everything is artificial, so no rules of reality apply....just how the Central Bankstering cartel wants it.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 13:43 | 5752334 djrichard
djrichard's picture

FDRallOverAgain was squarely in the camp that the market leads and the Fed follows.

But I'm seeing arguments on both sides of this.  Look at comments section in to http://angrybearblog.com/2012/05/who-determines-short-term-interest.html

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:08 | 5751718 glenlloyd
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If Mr Chairmanwoman raises rates they'll just have to retreat the next day.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:10 | 5751730 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Mr Yellin can get the rate raising chatter gone by raising rates .01% then spike the football and resume printing for the banks.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:17 | 5751762 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

That is what I am expecting.  

 

One rate hike.  Make a big show of it to build confidence.  Pray to any and every god that it doesn't cause an asset collapse.  Continue stealth QE.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:11 | 5751733 Quirkel
Quirkel's picture

When they do raise rates, and they probably will, we'll finally find out how much bullshit is being foisted on the US by these federal agencies

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:12 | 5751738 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

isnt plosser or some fed guy set to speak later today?

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:36 | 5751857 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Yup.

DavidC

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:16 | 5751757 SheepDog-One
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This 'everything has never been more awesome' meme is like chugging maple syrup, kinda good at first but you're gonna puke pretty quick.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:18 | 5751767 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

per BLS manufacturing employment

 

november +45K

december +26K

january +22K

 

from census exports

october $198.625 billion

november $196.427 billion

december $194.880 billion

 

from census new orders all manufacturing

october -0.7%

november -1.7%

december -3.4%

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:19 | 5751773 Devils Advocate
Devils Advocate's picture

I can not wait for them to raise rates......I figure they get to about 1-1.5% before the economy locks up and implodes.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:33 | 5751840 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes but think how many years they have to slowly wiggle rates up .01% increments before they get to 1%.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:23 | 5751793 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

about the wage gains ... sustainable?

 

productivity out yesterday ... expected +0.2% ... what we got -

 

"Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 1.8 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.2 percent and hours worked increased 5.1 percent."
unless output ramps up look for layoffs/cutbacks in labor (business no likey the cut into profit)
Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:23 | 5751794 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Today's jobs data will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly

We are always right, because, when we’re wrong we make things right again.

Janet  

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:23 | 5751796 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

what a tool

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:25 | 5751800 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

What is the TOTAL payroll income for each month? We only get the "average hourly" earnings - which includes NBA players, and waiters!

In the end it is only money that matters to the economy! I'm sure such data is available a month later, and wish the "financial media" would include it even as a lagging indicator in their charts.

Anyone have a link to such charts, instead of making ones own?

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:28 | 5751820 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

table B-3 gives average weekly earnings

 

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:24 | 5751805 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Todays labor report will only serve to boost Fed confidence that they're reading the economic tea leaves correctly'.....bwaaa ha ha ha haaaa!! Good one!

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:34 | 5751841 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture
"Don't Be Out Of The Office June 17th"???...

It should read...

You should have left "the office" 6 months ago, because what is now unfolding will include several conventional and nuclear "accident(s)"...  Don't believe any of us will need to worry too much at this point for Janet Yellen's canned speech on the latest round of "taper" moving forward!...

Visibly shaking with laughter!!!

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:40 | 5751875 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And even if you're in the office, what are you supposed to do....mash the 'buy all' button with both fists? Whatever.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:43 | 5751882 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

And even if you're in the office, what are you supposed to do....mash the 'buy all' button with both fists? Whatever.

"."

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:40 | 5751874 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Silver and gold are getting monkey hammered again on all this great economic news...

fact that the FED needs to raise rates so it can lower them again "when needed" and that it's all for show not included off course...

 

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:43 | 5751887 DontFollowMyAdv...
DontFollowMyAdviceImaDummy's picture

So does this mean some more folks will be suicided June 18th?

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 11:44 | 5751890 J Mahoney
J Mahoney's picture

I may just be a dummy but the "interest rate expectation" chart seems to be very closely in line with the first really large (as opposed to normal freaking big)  government debt maturity/refinance  

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 12:39 | 5752109 besnook
besnook's picture

c'mon you fuckwads! i need to refinance at 3.00%! don't let it go now!

this is definitely meant to talk up the dollar. really ironic in a post ww2 kind of way. i'd move to japan if the dollar went back to 360 again.

the game seems to be to create the conditions for massive capex(for what?) investment overseas with all the sequestered dollars multinationals are holding. a strong dollar not only encourages investment for dollar holders but also for the yuan and chinese investment. this is the new version of an old kickstarter.

Fri, 02/06/2015 - 14:38 | 5752503 PTR
PTR's picture

Today's jobs data will only serve to boost the Fed's confidence that they are reading the labor market correctly,

 

It's not reading that's at issue.  It's reporting.  It's more cooked than the turkey at the Griswold family Thanksgiving.

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