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January Payrolls Smash Expectations Rising By 257,000 As Hourly Earnings Surge Most Since November 2008
So much for expectations that January, missing on 9 out of 10 previous occasions, will miss again, as the BLS just reported that in January a whopping 257K jobs were added, far above the 228K expected, and up from December's 252K which was revised as part of the annual BLS data revision to 329K, a whopping 147K revision! More impressive: the household survey reported that a whopping 759K jobs were created in January.
The unemployment rate rose from 5.6% to 5.7%, above the 5.6% expected.
But most notable, the average hourly earnings surged from last month's -0.2% by a whopping 0.5%, the highest monthly jump in average hourly earnings since November 2008. On an annual basis, the increase was a less impressive 2.2%:
It remains to be seen just how this is happening with mass layoffs in the oil patch, but what is now practically assured is that the Fed will have no choice but to hike as soon as June.
More from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing. After incorporating revisions for November and December (which include the impact of the annual benchmark process), monthly job gains averaged 336,000 over the past 3 months. (See table B-1 and summary table B. See the note at the end of this news release and table A for information about the annual benchmark process.)
- Employment in retail trade rose by 46,000 in January. Three industries accounted for half of the jobs added--sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+9,000); motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000); and nonstore retailers (+6,000).
- Construction continued to add jobs in January (+39,000). Employment increased in both residential and nonresidential building (+13,000 and +7,000, respectively). Employment continued to trend up in specialty trade contactors (+13,000). Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 28,000 jobs per month.
- In January, health care employment increased by 38,000. Job gains occurred in offices of physicians (+13,000), hospitals (+10,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000). Health care added an average of 26,000 jobs per month in 2014.
- Employment in financial activities rose by 26,000 in January, with insurance carriers and related activities (+14,000) and securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+5,000) contributing to the gain. Financial activities has added 159,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
- Manufacturing employment increased by 22,000 over the month, including job gains in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000) and wood products (+4,000). Over the past 12 months, manufacturing has added 228,000 jobs.
- Professional and technical services added 33,000 jobs in January, including increases in computer systems design (+8,000) and architectural and engineering services (+8,000).
- In January, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up (+35,000). In 2014, the industry added an average of 33,000 jobs per month.
- Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month.
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LOL but we still need negative rates
Do they really expect people to believe these numbers? But hey if it rubs the markets the right way then mission acomplished, what a fuckin' farcicle fantasy land of bullshit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yloaBw80fV4
It remains to be seen just how this is happening with mass layoffs in the oil patch
Ummm.....magic?
Perhaps some good old fashioned soviet style propaganda?
The numbers no longer determne te narrative; the narrative determines the numbers.
This is an absolutely awesome figure! There’s no playing this down -This is the nail in the coffin for doomer libertarians and zerohedge freaks! The recovery is not only sustaining itself – it’s accelerating, and this specifically because of the work that our congress and Federal Reserve have done to stimulate economic growth.
For those of you who understand economics, today’s figure comes as no surprise. Read today’s article at the Accredited Times for the truth about where jobs really come from:
http://accredited-times.com/2015/02/05/consumers-create-jobs-not-busines...
everything is awesome......har
When this dropped, someone on the floor started playing the "Everything is awesome" song, and then someone else said "turn Alex Jones off"
lol
The world is a very strange place right now.
the government fucked with the numbers to make them beautiful
but if the report was awful, the statistics would stand as printed
@MillionDollarBonus, you forgot to mark the sarcasm in your post. Otherwise some people may take your statement at face value (even if that may seem very strange to you). I show you below how to properly mark it:
<sarcasm on>The recovery is not only sustaining itself – it’s accelerating, and this specifically because of the work that our congress and Federal Reserve have done to stimulate economic growth.</sarcasm off>
Shhhh!
That's the joke.
It's nice to see the real MDB back, the link is the tell.
.... just a quick reminder ...
>>> #1 The Obama administration tells us that 8.69 million Americans are “officially unemployed” and that 92.90 million Americans are considered to be “not in the labor force”. That means that more than 101 million U.S. adults do not have a job right now. <<< http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/death-american-dream-22-numbers ...
... here too ...>>> The Layoffs Begin: ADP Misses, Lowest Since September As "Businesses In The Energy Industries Are Scaling Back Payrolls" <<< http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/adp-employment-drops-misses-expectations
... and here ... >>> Gallup CEO: "America's 5.6% Unempoyment Is One Big Lie" <<< http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/gallup-ceo-americas-56-unempoyment-one-big-lie
... and here ... >>> Layoffs Surge 17.6% YoY, Shale State Joblessness Soars, Initial Jobless Claims Rise <<< http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-05/layoffs-surge-176-yoy-shale-state-joblessness-soars-initial-jobless-claims-rise
... I think these pretty well sum it up ...
Dude, you been here almost as long as me. Don't you know by now that MDB trying to come off as honest is part of the entertainment?
Newbies have to learn the hard way like the rest of us.
The current market is like being back in university, getting wasted and going to bed with a 10 only to wake up with a 2......it ain't too pretty when the beer goggles come off.
GREAT JOBS REPORT!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StTqXEQ2l-Y
Raise Rates, Mr. Yellen!
every morning I see that guy across the street holding sign "homeless and hungry" and its real
He must be an American citizen. Illegal aliens know enough to go get free stuff from the government.
I also heard that 262,000 of the 257,000 new jobs were filled by illegal aliens.
Audit the BLS.
Big fan, big fan. Do not let the Johnny-come-lately imposters take your bit.
We must have a lot of new folks who do not recognize the sarc is strong with this one.
So is that why the Fed Funds target is still at zero?
When Mr. Yellen quits talking bull shit about raising rates and actually does; and when that doesn't crash, or at least begin a slow decent in the housing and stock markets, then I'll admit you're right. Hell, if she raises rates 25 BPs without you and the rest of the stimulus monkies jumping ship, I'll give him a blow job live on CNBC while Cramer smacks my ass.
accredited-times, lmfao, that site is pure satirical gold.
Can you say manipulation
What industry is hiring ?
Bureau of Lies and Subterfuge.
Electric cars must really be taking off with this many people working and oil inventories at record highs.
Crimson Avenger, exactly, double upvote....in addition, there is a plethora of part time hourly wage jobs, but virtually no careers.
and the survey says.......we're all winners!!!
The beauty of it all is that there is no way to refute their numbers. Like rating agencies they are paid by those seeking the numbers they produce. Too many bad surveys, and they might just have to find a new "team".
The reality is that everything WE see , hear and generally experience is all anecdotal and therefore meaningless.
Believe what we are told, DO what we are told, and "all will be as right as rain".
LOL but we still need negative rates
"." ;- )
<= They will be revised down at least 75k
<= The Numbers are Solid
Does anyone really believe these numbers?
http://radio.foxnews.com/2015/02/05/dont-buy-the-big-lie-heres-why-the-u...
And if you don't trust FOX, see John Williams' shadowstats.com.
We should NEVER be surprised to find that we are being lied to. Our surprise should be reserved for those few times when they tell us the truth.
hell they even admit that they NEED to lie to us for our own good.
"hell they even admit that they NEED to lie to us for THEIR own good."
FIFY
That was predictable now is the time to switch to Greek news as this is the bad boy together with Russia to spoil the party and to be blame after all this BS collapse.
Total fraud.
It's official...they don't give a crap anymore if it's believable or not. just do it.
Yes they can.
Consistent reporting is for beginners.
I'm convinced these fake numbers and the stock market run are all a lead up to being able to point back in time and say, "we fixed everything, but then ___________ happened and that's why you're all out of work/poor." They know the sheep have short memories and if they can blame the eventual melt-down on some external force, they will get carte blance from the population to do what "worked" last time, again and again.
______________= WAR?
That's certainly one of the top contenders in my conspiratorial mind.
Yeup.
I'll leave this here;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq0ykF2mHgQ
Multiple birds with one stone -- at one time.
Methinks it'll be a cyber event well before any large scale kinetic event.
that's precisely the scenario
Yep, "we had this problem licked and on a sustainable path and then................"
History books will be written this way also and any truth will be relegated to the dust bin.
They say therefore we believe. Colleges used to question authority and the narrative, now you are spoon fed horseshit by the plate full and kids lap it up.
PATS PATS PATS
something for everyone with UE up to 5.7
guess they exclude shale industry - right?
The shale roofing industry has been slow for many years.
so has the "shake" and "slate" roofing industry.
"A hiking we will go, a hiking we will go,
long live Mario, a hiking we will...........er ....a cutting we will go"
The Fed needs to convene an emergency meeting after the close of markets today and raise the Fed Funds rate by 100 basis point!
CEO's rasised their salaries? I look around and the lucky one's that still have jobs haven't had a raise for quite awhile. In fact a few had to accept pay cuts or face layoffs. I call bullshit on these numbers (well I will always call bullshit on them, but this one is probably the king farce to rule them all).
My thought. The salaries (they measure) increased. Anything decreasing is declared non-salary. Problem solved.
Minimum wage went up in January?
By jove, I think you've got it!
So this should be market negative because all is well, employment is soaring and we'll need to increase rates so that we don't get away with ourselves.
Ummmmm.
This will be revised lower next month without a doubt.
at what point do they just give up on 'revising' numbers? just tell everyone it's raining pixie dust and leave it at that.
Burning credibility because the show must go on.
I think that ship has sailed. The market doesn't trade on this data due to it being credible as much as it being a queue for the latest to-be-short-lived momentum trade.
first things first. the fed will never fucking raise rates because they cant. they have come up with every excuse in the book not too, but we all know the main reason.
secondly, isnt it amazing how last year the excuse was the fucking weather, but this year with pretty much the same cold and stormy weather we saw last year, we dont here any fucking excuses.
and last thing, the revisions upwards r one big fucking joke. its nice the cnbc can fucking report just a fucking number but with no context. the revisions are prob due to low paying jobs being added during the holiday season.
another fucking scam by the fed and government, what the fuck is new on a jobs friday, or any day for that matter
Prove it that it is due to "these low paying jobs being added during the holiday season".. and I always wonder how they even FIND people to work such 'low paying retail' especially when many employees now who work retail complain (mostly on internet websites) how retail "sucks". the customers are "rude" to them, they have to work 12 hours a day and have kids (why the fuck are you popping out kids on a retail salary)
Prove it that it is due to "these low paying jobs being added during the holiday season".. and I always wonder how they even FIND people to work such 'low paying retail' especially when many employees now who work retail complain (mostly on internet websites) how retail "sucks". the customers are "rude" to them, they have to work 12 hours a day and have kids (why the fuck are you popping out kids on a retail salary)
Kids are an ATM machine to the poor. Look at the tax return of single mom making 16,000 / year with 4 kids. She'll get another 10,000 every february.
These cost her nothing, 2 meals a day from the school, free healthcare, free daycare, food stamps for weekend food, and rent subsidies.
There is no reason to not just pump out kids if you are poor.
So more than 13 million people have been added to the workforce with no real increase in wages.
A central planner's dream come true.
Too damn good to be true in my opinion.
I reject this data for the following reasons:
Salaries are not rising and profits are not growing for the American economy overall.
If you cannot make a profit, you have no reason to hire or expand.
I'll add one more reason: Ask any college graduate on college campuses if they have employers competing for their labors. Compare that to the times when grads had to sort through the offers. Then ask yourself why it is different this time around.
Actually the college grads (recent college grads are doing quite well, especially in the NYC and Boston area).. It is those over 40 or if they have been unemployed for 'too long' (longer than a few months that are completely screwed)... Hiring Managers & HR want those fresh faced recent college grads since they (according to them) are up to date on the latest technology, are 'energetic' and are "fun to be around"... I heard how it is almost back to the late 1990s... You can graduate from a regular state school and have a multitude of job offers paying 60K or higher...
That might be true in evil-doer land, but it's the exact opposite everywhere else, as true commerce doesn't need fresh-faced kids to operate on the fringes of legality, then take the blame when the next scam blows up. Instead, the market is saturated with experienced Boomers who can't afford to retire.
<<--- 77th battalion
<<--- The actual word on the street.
Actually the college grads (recent college grads are doing quite well, especially in the NYC and Boston area).. It is those over 40 or if they have been unemployed for 'too long' (longer than a few months that are completely screwed)... Hiring Managers & HR want those fresh faced recent college grads since they (according to them) are up to date on the latest technology, are 'energetic' and are "fun to be around"... I heard how it is almost back to the late 1990s... You can graduate from a regular state school and have a multitude of job offers paying 60K or higher...
Hard to believe these numbers from the industry I'm in, been thru 3 layoffs in 2 years, if things don't get better we'll be doing another in 3-6 months
We have to take a moment and stop knocking those high paying holiday temp jobs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So easy even a caveman could do it...this explains the market's ramp over the last few days as rising interest rates (they HAVE to raise rates) must be seen as GOOD for the market
What remains to be seen is how they will continue to levitate the market as liquidity is withdrawn...besides stock buybacks (which are still going on) and foreign government purchases, could there really be a stealth QE still working under the covers?
Did Brian Williams report those numbers?
I think he has been appointed head of the BLS. After all he was able to cover up a lie for over ten years. He is good!
I hear they also have Hillary on staff....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHVEDq6RVXc
Shale jobs? We don't need no stinkin' shale jobs!
greenshoooooooooootz!
What's happening is that new "jobs" are being created by shifting hours away from full time workers into part time jobs so that they don't qualify to get the business hit with Obamacare costs.
25 jobs at 40 hours/week
enter Obamacare
40 jobs at 25 hours/week
presto chango, 15 "new jobs created"!
Confirmed to me by a San Fransisco restaurant operator last week.
All part of the global rebalancing of wages effort. This is not by accident.
radio S BK, lay offs in retail think JCP and Sears, consolidation in Office d and on and on - refinery works on strike and payrolls go up? yah I think these are solid numbers..it's bad when they gotta lie so in your face.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
They have been telling so many porky pies for so long now they don't know what truth is
Any additional job number is good if you leave the decimal point out.
50 or 60% of which were parttime, waiter, waitress, bartender?
not that theres anything wrong with that, but these are not high-quality, high-paying jobs.
need proof? home ownership continues to plummet.
oh, and how far we've fallen when guys in my office are trying to guess the job # before the print hits, i say 235k and 2 guys bark-out "too-high" (consensus here was slightly sub-200k).
anyone remember when we used to print 400-500k like they were pancakes? my how far we've fallen. when 257k is considered "knocking it out of the park" all i think of is starve a man long enough and a saltine will taste like surf & turf :(
We go through this NFP "circus" every month; and every month the Bureau of Lies & Statistics [BLS] absolutely must project rosy economic activity for Emperor Goebbels and his crew. Nothing matters except the iullusion [more like delusional] the FED and everybody else in the political & financial elite have everything under control. What a fucking joke.
www.traderzoo.mobi
And Obama is American
ZH's algos feverishly reworking their low-rate-low-wage-deflationary-spiral-"let's screw with chart scales"-"January always misses"-"BLS is corrupt" narrative. The clock is ticking guys...
LIES - LIES GODDAMMIT ! - JUST MORE FUCKING PROPAGANDA - did I mention LIES ?
Ohhhh..........
Can't wait for March w/ that Fed "announcement"!...
Hot damn! It's better than expected.
DOW blast off straight through 18,000. Who could have imagined such good news, almost seems unreal! Can't be though, gubmint sez so.
I see that the monkey is back with his big hammer!
When the dow the debt and the gdp all have to be the same, the end is near.
you have hit the nail on its head. it's an harmonic convergence.
It happened last in early Ur when the Mesopotamian Agricultural Average and the Sumerian national debt converged and the Great Bull market of he Bronze Age began.
It is a matter of National Security so they can report what they want. We would not want to appear weak to our enemies.
How many did the BIRTH model add to January? I think I see more cookie delivery stores.
Wait until the 'finalized' figure is quietly released later in the month.
And gold got the smackdown 3 minutes BEFORE the announcement, just in case the bugs began doubting who is still in charge here...
I'm not CONFUSED though. :)
Awesome! I'm taking my daughter to the coin store this afternoon to buy her first full tube of ASEs.
It's just cover for the fed to declare victory and raise rates before the recession is apparent
Everything is AWESOME!™
My boner is large!
Hookers and blow for everyone (except employees of Radio Shack, Guitar Center, McDonald's, Oil drillers, ummm...), well, maybe just hookers, then.
Crude is also up. Putin must also be getting a boner. Who knows with a real lot vodka maybe Merkel might get lucky tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg
As long as the dollar remains strong they won't raise rates. They'll just keep talking about it.
It's what they have done so far and will continue to do.
my f*cking head just exploded.
Lucky you then, you are now out of the matrix.
remember the USSR had full employment as it died
Tiger Woods hired 65,000 swing coaches. Didn't quite work out for them, so, back to 180,000 next month.
BTW, isn't 5% considered full employment? Rates should have started going up three months ago, ya know, cuz the Fed is so smart and Yellen's dick is huge and all that.
When the markets were kind of free in the 1990s and early 2000s the 10yr yield would be around 6.5% and the Fed Funds target would be around 4.875%. What we have now is a farce.
Here I am, throwing cold water all over this awesomeness.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Not-seasonally adjusted data from the Household Data is sick.
Unemployment rate - 6.1% (up from 5.4%)
Employment-population ratio - 58.7% (down from 59.1%
Employed - down over 560k m/o/m
Unemployed - up over one million m/o/m
Oh, well. I have to go now. Gotta buy me some Apple and Shake Shak stock.
For a quick second it looked like you typed "Shit Shak"
going to be hard for p/e multiples to stay up here when the risk free rate is raised
uk is on 0.5% base rate for 70 months
my guess it we get a rise, a stock crash and a cut
but no more exceptional measures (qe etc) can be tolerated if a crash doesn't come first
I think many are missing the point.
The laid-off workers have new jobs: filling out Unemployment Forms.
Looking for a new job is full time work.
Which is why the labor participation rate went up!
It all makes sense.
/sarc/
My extended benefit unemployed Father-in-Law .... makes $70 per hour .... selling "Loosies" .... in front of Human Resources !
"Payrolls are uuuuuup .... gas prices are doooooown !" .... Algore.
An accountant made a comment to me today...."now that the economy is improving". I asked him how many of his clients were doing better than last year and he said none, it's really really tough at the moment he added!!?! Just goes to show the bs mantra of the economy picking up is sinking in even though it's bs.
People are made to believe it's just them that's having a tough time.
What can you do when you are fighting fake numbers, I guess just wait until people join the dots.....because algo's won't.
I'm going to ask my accountant the same question... clever...
Low Oil is putting people back to work. More campers, boats, SUVs, and loans.
Wow, this is incredible!
I am going to leave work straight away and go buy some stawk in an undervalued company call Radio Shack, or was it Shake Shak? Whatever it's all good.
How many of these jobs were created by the birth-death model of small businesses?
The same small businesses that Gallup shows more dying than being born for the first time in history over the past few years?
Something just isn't lining up.
Brought to you by Unicorn Data Services.
We outsource your data reporting and you can pay us in skittles!!!
Whopping!!!
A new year and therefore new accounting "methods"? Why not, in an Animal Farm anything is possible in order to mislead the sheeple.
Gold is destroyed on BLS days, never own gold going into a BLS report unless you want to lose money.
Andrew Maguire exposed that years ago.....of course the CFTC didn't want to hear it.
Pow! 10yr yield just took off.
Table B-1 not seasonally adjusted... Over 2 million workers shed. No worries they will be back next christmas season.
Something to watch is labor force flows:
Employed to unemployed has been trending up since June.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ZOz
Something like the following story is happening to all of us now:
(And it's a true story from an Afghan friend!)
Not long ago in the Afghan province of Herat lived a man who inherited some patches of good land to feed his goats and grow some wheat. Compared to the rest of the Afghan society the man and his family were pretty wealthy and they owned a nice house also. The man and his family always cared for the community and they spend some money for school and medicine services.
This was all to the dislike of the local Taliban group, which was dwelling in some rusted shags in the mountains.
Before long it was decided that the man had to die. So the Taliban planted a mine before his house in the night, covered it with some tumbleweed grass and hoped the problem would solve itself quickly.
A sunny and clear new morning came when the man left his house, but becoming suspicious of some strange tumbleweed grass before his doorsteps. Careful as he was, he inspected the heap of tumbleweed just too see that something was hidden underneath. So he called the local police and they found out it was truly a mine, planted to kill a man.The relief was great after the mine was dismantled and he felt he had escaped a real threat.
The next morning the bell was ringing at the man's house. When he opened he saw a tanned man with a beard and a Kalashnikov on his shoulder. "Are you Arash Abbas?", asked the bearded man. "So i am", replied the owner of the house.
"Well i am the local Taliban commander and we planted a mine before your house yesterday, which didn't go off and kill you. We had expenses for the mine and now its gone. We ask you to pay us for our expenses and our efforts"
The moral of this story and of the state of our current financial markets: If you dont belong to the chosen few, they want you dead. and they want you to pay for your own demise if their actions didn't lead to the desired success initially. Welcome to a Central Bank man's world!
So, the point here is that unemployment rose while new job creation and salaries went up. ZH would benefit greatly by keeping their message clear and simple.
Lies often reveal more than the truth they attempt to obscure.
I call BS, we've had more snow so far this year...
Meh I see cyclical shit
This year you will have a lot of:
1) People going to bars
2) People replacing their furnaces that are approaching 10 ~ 15 years old units
3) People patching roofs
4) People changing appliances
5) People being hired to deal with new confusing / fraudulent tax laws (thanks Obama)
All the hiring will be in places that cost the consumer money.... the rise in earnings will taper off.
And remember for every dollar someone earns, someone has to spend it in the first place, and during the transaction more often than not it is a taxed income, which means money leaves the hands of society and goes into corrupt hands of government.... where it is not productive.
Wait 2 ~ 3 months and you will start to see earnings decline IMO.
BLS being run by the Pentagon now.
We are in a currency war, and you are being lied to.
It means the end is closer than I thought.
I got a raise at my job this year (it still doesn't beat real inflation); methinks the corporations are playing a little catch up to make sure the plebs don't catch on too fast and get out of line.
If you knew the truth, you would have all your money in gold and silver.
China can continue buying US assets using US Treasuries as collateral.
I hope the Chinese understand that they are not dealing with honorable people.
I'm always puzzled that we have about a million first time unemployment claims each month and "add" about 250K to 300K jobs each month....and that's good news. Is this Common Core math?
Whopping bad writing. You used the word whopping three times in the first paragraph. WTF is it with ZH and that word? You guys connected to Burger King or something? Don't know of any synonyms for something very large? Here are some:
This is a waste of time unless you are busy writing fairy tales. And then the good seasonal fairy waved her wand .... and everything was alright again. Now go to sleep children, tomorrow an other fairy tale story.
the Household Survey needs to be trashed.. and a daily polling of 500 households needs to replace it...