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Treasury Yields Are Soaring Most Since Jan 2009
Almost the entire Treasury complex is now up aropund 30bps on the week. In percentage terms, this is the biggest yield spike for 30Y bonds since January 2009. 30Y is back above 2.50%, 10Y above 1.9%, and 7Y above 1.75% as 2Y yields have exploded 10bps to 62bps (and 39% this week - the most on record).
Quite a volatile week for bonds...
Biggest weekly move in 30Y since Jan 09...
Charts: Bloomberg
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?? I'm.......confused...
Volatility is coming back. No need to be confused.
Rate hikes have begun!!
Ukraine must be ready to explode with Russia cause Vlad's really pissed we said he has Asperger's Syndrome!
It would be more fuck, fuck ..fu.. fuc fucking interesting if he had Tourettes.
Maybe this is the point of the OP, but ... isn't strong dollar and rising yields totally contradictory?
Just trying to keep my head screwed on straight here ...
Regards,
Cooter
All else being equal yes. Welcome to the era of central banking, when nothing matters except the decisions of a tight clique of elderly ivy-league academics.
They're starting to lose control, which is going to make your head spin even more at some of the contradictions that are going to show up. Well, your head will spin when you figure out what is really happening and what is just BLS and other alphabet soup lies. The fuckers are going to become even more untruthful, as impossible as that seems.
They're not losing control. This is a new phase.
You were told that rates were going up and to get the fuck out of bonds. It's bullshit, you know it and you called their bluff.
When they can't exactly what they fucking want when they want it, they introduce volatility to fuck it out of you.
Nice 'market', right?
BTFD, duh!
How out of touch with reality are the folks at the Pentagon? I mean seriously.. spending money to determine whether Putin has Aspergers. Just ridiculous. And then release the study? Just pure insanity. These people are going to get us all killed.
I'm not sure if one should consider Asperger's Syndrome a disability. As with Michael Burry, it also confers special abilities.
I have a friend with Aspergers who wanted to be a doctor, he realized he didn't like touching people and has difficulty looking people in they eye. So, he got his PhD in Chemistry and is a very successful research chemist.
http://www.myaspergers.net/what-is-aspergers/famous-people-with-asperger...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mMLSFVuZQE
Clay Marzo. Absolute freak of a Surfer. Has aspergers.
Better Asperger's than the psychopathy most of the Western world leaders 'suffer' from.
But noone funded a study of that, duh
Al -You're good. Great post.
Psychopaths indeed.
There is absolutely no correlation between PM's and yeilds.
None whatsoever...
Haven't you heard? Latest jobs report proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that in-fact "EVERYTHING IS AWESOME"!
No need to be confused friend, your choices are quite simple.
1: Buy Stocks
2: Buy Moar Stocks
Front running rate hikes?
Nope.
They've started them.
There goes mortgage pricing.
more likely is competition from $25 Billion in corporate bond issuance this week
I think you're right on the money. I forgot that Apple has the power set interest rates lol. Would be funny if it weren't so sad.
since 2009 lulz
When the 10yr is at 8%....I'll consider it
From earlier today, but fits here as well....
Something like the following story is happening to all of us now:
(And it's a true story from an Afghan friend!)
Not long ago in the Afghan province of Herat lived a man who inherited some patches of good land to feed his goats and grow some wheat. Compared to the rest of the Afghan society the man and his family were pretty wealthy and they owned a nice house also. The man and his family always cared for the community and they spend some money for school and medicine services.
This was all to the dislike of the local Taliban group, which was dwelling in some rusted shags in the mountains.
Before long it was decided that the man had to die. So the Taliban planted a mine before his house in the night, covered it with some tumbleweed grass and hoped the problem would solve itself quickly.
A sunny and clear new morning came when the man left his house, but becoming suspicious of some strange tumbleweed grass before his doorsteps. Careful as he was, he inspected the heap of tumbleweed just too see that something was hidden underneath. So he called the local police and they found out it was truly a mine, planted to kill a man.The relief was great after the mine was dismantled and he felt he had escaped a real threat.
The next morning the bell was ringing at the man's house. When he opened he saw a tanned man with a beard and a Kalashnikov on his shoulder. "Are you Arash Abbas?", asked the beared man. "So i am", replied the owner of the house.
"Well i am the local Taliban commander and we planted a mine before your house yesterday, which didn't go off and kill you. We had expenses for the mine and now its gone. We ask you to pay us for our expenses and our efforts"
The moral of this story and of the state of our current financial markets: If you dont belong to the chosen few, they want you dead. and they want you to pay for your own demise if their actions didn't lead to the desired success initially. Welcome to a Central Bank man's world!
True enough. If you'd just replace the Taliban guy with "hebrew banker".
But speaking of Kalashnikov.
Did you mooks see the Russians will start making them here in the US to get around sanctions?
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/20/news/kalashnikov-made-in-usa/
Now that is simply awesome.
quit boggarting the mutafucvkerr
Headbanger. Century Arms here in States is making the AK 47 built with a milled reciever. They are on with the Gen 2 version now. The Gen 1s were nice, but like anything first time out, there were some bug's. Forget chrome lined barrels too, most surplus ammo is gone. Their AKs, nuff said. Century C39s.
The first AKs had fairly thin stamped sheet metal making up the receiver. They weren't very stiff. They'd go bang every time you'd squeeze the trigger, but forget shooting a tight group. Of course, the vast majority of the time, the people carrying them were a lot closer than 200M from each other, so tack driving wasn't necessary.
American manufacturers already make them here to get around the imported foreign parts restrictions nonsense. On an American made receiver you can put any parts you want. On a foreign-made post-ban receiver, you can't. Same with FNs, by the way.
Just efficient markets acting all efficient and shit. And the brave men that shuffle this paper back and forth for profit; heroes all!
whip-a-shitty, ha...
Better get CBO on the phone STAT, those future deficit numbers need attention...
This is a big No No as low cost debt whores will start feeling the pinch from this "recovery". Home builders and assorted sub-primers who rely on the steady infusion of ultra cheap liquidity simply cannot withstand the onslaught with no commentary necessary as to debt service. And the ancillary knock on stronger dollar? Fuggedaboutit.
This simply won't do. Someone needs to manufacture a crisis, STAT. Maybe Belgium can step in?
Pretty much. We've spent six years building an economy that depends on ultra-low interest rates just to break even. This should be interesting.
So, America is going to default (again)? Sounds good to me.
In a currency war, no one nation will see anyone but the elites benefit. Wishing evil or ill on one nation impacts all.
Looks like the equity market is bottoming out and going much higher!
10 yr yield will hit 1% sooner or later
i've been in the long bond for years and there will be bumps along the way (the 2013 ramp that didn't hold)
having said that ... yields will move back down ... SOON
Yes, a real bottom and recovery in energy prices will be the tell.
I don't know how soon yields will drop, but today Treasuries got monkey-hammered. yea - I took a unrealized loss, but added to my long positions.
There are 3 auctions next week - 3s, 10s and 30s. If yields hodl or decline till then, then weza gonna really some more. If auctions breach today's high yield in rates, then yields will continue to rise.
Good Luck - NoVa
rising rates into the spring home selling season?
got popcorn?
carmelized?
So the euro zone folks who rushed into our bonds to preserve capital are finding the central banks were two steps ahead of them.
rising rates will crush banksters refinance operations
how many thousands of laid off mortgage officers will BLS (fail to) count?
Gravity affects everything...even bond prices......
strupendous, (with a happy face icon). chart the offs fucking wonderellie!!!!!
Rate hikes are going to be SO good for the real estate market....
Someone is dumping Treasuries, and in a way that can't be disguised by the Fed. They would never otherwise allow rates to budge by so much as a micron. Chickens may now be coming home to roost and I strongly suspect the possibility that it may be related to the US-NATO's effort to start WWIII, in spite of the fact that NATO is getting its ass handed to it like an MRE. Ironically, military losses for the neocon/nazi set are clearly not as important as the maintenance of conflict and chaos... (aka SPECTRE)
I don't believe in geopolitical coincidences, and note that, in direct opposition to the stated aims of the US, France and Germany are meeting with Russia today to discuss an end to the Ukrainian debacle. One way or another, events are otherwise exponentially accelerating towards a crescendo. Personally, I believe the eastern alliance, and the BRICS nations in general, intend to, and are applying, a strategy of fiat currency destruction in order to pull the rug out from under the monster the US has become, but without direct military confrontation --inasmuch as this is possible...
As the old curse has it: 'May you live in interesting times'.
Looks like those baby boomers keep forgetting they are supposed to leave the workforce.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ZRe
Ahhhhhhh buy bonds!?!?
Please pass the nail gun, Kevin Henry might be interested as the vix just skull fuked his short position.
Headline: 2/16/15
Treasury Yields Are Declining By the Most Since 2014.
Some intelligent content for some of my ZH Treasury friends
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We believe that if the large increases in employment growth that has occurred the last 3 month continues, the Fed will have to start to “talk dirty” and then remove accommodative language from their announcements and minutes. The first words to go would be the elimination of the forward guidance stating the Fed will keep rates low for a “considerable time” and the word “patient”. This would be typical Fed behavior, as the plunge in oil prices quieted the ubiquitous gallery of market professionals constantly harping that, given the Feds long and extraordinary accommodations, hyperinflation was just around the bend. They’ll be prominent next week; you can be sure of that. This Fed (the Yellen Fed) , like all Fed regimes conscious of its legacy, will now begin to protect it’s “they waited too long to tighten” flank.
- Nonfarm Payrolls are a game changer if the momentum is sustained unambiguously over the next 2-3 months; that’s something in bonds that changes the likely range of prices and perhaps the character of a market. For more than a year, the character of this market is that it has traded in an upward channel so steep that 30 year treasuries- “the bond” have risen in price from 97-27 to 116-27 in four months. The character of the market has dictated day-to-day guidance of- don’t ever sell weakness it will come back, and, the technicals of fear (of deflation, world economic weakness, wars, terrorism, oil rout, stocks sometimes) cause flights into bonds that favor of higher prices for “riskless assets”.
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Yesterday the “riskless asset” went down a lot more from the 116-27 high close on Jan. 30, and today broke 112-01+ super support, and starting heading to our next support level of 109-16. Tens traded back to our support level (and auction average) of 102-27+, or 1,93%, but has held there so far. That means that bonds are down 7 points in five trading days; anyone who believes the bond “riskless” is a madman.
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Levels: support for the bond at 109-16, tens at 1.94%-93%, the 102-27+ auction average.