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The Canadian Housing Market In 6 Simple Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Shane Obata via Tha Business blog

This won't end well.

1) Canada’s housing market is 63% overvalued relative to its historical average…

1

2) Home prices in Vancouver are more expensive than they are in Sydney, London, and New York…

2

 

3) “Canada is in serious trouble” because its households never deleveraged…

3

 

4) Since 2000, growth in assets held by Canadian banks is as follows…

  • Personal lines of credit: + ~650%
  • Credit card loans: + ~400%
  • Mortgages: + ~250%
  • Disposable income: + ~100%

4

 

5) In Canada, multifamily construction is at record highs…

5

 

6) Canadian workers are twice as reliant on housing construction…

6

 

In conclusion…

– The Canadian housing market is very expensive.

 

– Median house price to median household income is higher in Vancouver than it is in Sydney, London, and New York.

 

– Canadian households – unlike their US counterparts – never deleveraged after the financial crisis.

 

– Credit is growing a lot faster than income is.

 

– There’s a lot of supply coming onto the market.

 

– The share of Canadian workers in housing construction is twice what it is in the US.

If rates rise or if commodity prices continue to fall then it’s likely that Canada’s housing market will come under pressure.

h/t @fxmacro

 

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Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:21 | 5756427 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Seems the bear is lurking everywhere.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:15 | 5756816 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

I live in Vancouver. The Titanic passengers are literally swinging from the chandeliers, drunk as college kids, while signs of economic erosion are everywhere.

For lease signs are everywhere, entire floors in popular high rises, prime ground level space on high profile streets vacant, retailers like Starbucks closing flagship stores.

You just get the feeling something will blow up any day now, besides oil.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:50 | 5756913 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

"The Titanic passengers are literally swinging from the chandeliers, drunk as college kids, while signs of economic erosion are everywhere."

i congratulate you as the newest member of the not-so-exclusive group: People Who Don't Know What The Word "Literally" Means

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:06 | 5756947 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well, I suppose in the strictest sense, the Titanic ghosts could be swinging from the rusty old chandeliers, but I doubt it would be for the shenanigans in Vancouver.   Anyhow, you said what had to be said.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:04 | 5757073 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

that's quite a supposition.

first, ghosts would have to exist.

and second, they would have to be able to swing.

swinging has to do with a pendulum type motion in a gravitational field. are ghosts affected by gravity, assuming they do exist? as non-corporeal entities of zero mass, the gravitaional force would be:

g x m1 x m2 / r^2, so if m2, the mass of the ghost, is zero, it would seem there would be no gravitational force exerted on the ghost by the earth, and therefore, the ghost would be unable to swing.

QED

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:57 | 5757208 old naughty
old naughty's picture

you got my attention...

i don't know if m2 would be zero, but let's suppose m1 =0, what would it do then?

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:05 | 5757737 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

it's just the expression for the gravitation attraction between two objects.

m1 is the mass of the earth, m2 is the mass of what's being attracted to the earth.

if m1 is 0 that means the earth has no mass, that would mean that we're living on a ghost planet. oooooh! spooky!

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 20:00 | 5788300 jimbo72
jimbo72's picture

0 mass doesn't exist (protons are never at rest) and what if another force caused the swinging???

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:09 | 5756954 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I'm sure he will literally feel the figurative strip you tore off of him.

P.S. You forgot to capitalize your i

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gv0H-vPoDc

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:56 | 5757054 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

i'm not familiar with that expression...not trying to tear a strip off of anyone, i just wish people would stop trying to use words to mean their opposite, because they think words like "literally" or "exponential" make them sound smart.

i don't capitalize i, any more than jimmy doesn't capitalize jimmy.

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:02 | 5757070 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Grammar club blog>>>>>>>>>>

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:06 | 5757080 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

grammar has to do with use of syntax, *not* with definitions of words.

you have thusly been refuted.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:22 | 5756989 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

They're figuratively SWINGING from the chandeliers! Doesn't really have the same punch.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:48 | 5757040 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

how about metaphorically swinging from the chandeliers?

or simply, swinging from the chandeliers?

yes, i suppose it doesn't have the same punch.

but then, saying "i caught a 2' long fish" doesn't have the same punch as saying " i caught a 10' long fish". however, it doesn't change the fact that you shouldn't say "i caught a 10' long fish" if it's not true!

there is an old zagreb proverb: "the truth is greater than 10 goats"

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:04 | 5757075 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Thanks for coming.

When are you leaving?

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:08 | 5757083 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

thank you for thanking me.

i never leave...i'm always here.

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:32 | 5757148 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

If you're going to make a habit of hassling people about grammar on this blog, you've come to the wrong place. Furthermore, I regularly see much worse grammatical errors than the one I committed. The fact that you called that one out tells me you're a troll.

People here know a troll to see one, keep up your grammar police act and you won't find your stay enjoyable.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:15 | 5757743 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

again: there is no grammar issue with what you said, grammar has to do with syntax, not with definitions of words. if you don't understand what the word "grammar" means, here is wikipedia to help you out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grammar

so, you're saying that a troll is someone who points out that you are using a word incorrectly when in fact you mean the exact opposite of that word?

i'm not here for things to be "enjoyable", i could care less about that. but if someone says something plainly wrong or ignorant, i will call them out on it.

i'll make you a deal, though: stop mis-using the word "literally", and i'll stop calling you out on it.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 12:55 | 5758496 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

 

You mean "couldn't care less". You see, "could care less" means you care somewhat. What you said is actually the *opposite* of what you meant.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:40 | 5757170 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

Hi! Stacking, in this context, (useage rules are changing, and words may have different meanings in different contexts) in this context, Literal changes it's 'Literal' meaning as Virtual changes it's in the computer context. 

Things mean what people think they mean, I share your apprehension, I think a replay of Babel may be in the future, where everyone talks and no one comprehends the other.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:40 | 5757765 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

sadly, i'm aware that increasingly, the public at large is increasingly using the word "literal" to mean its opposite.

it's my impression, it's not a matter of context at all; rather, pretentious persons of low intellect want to make themselves sound important and educated, and mistakenly think that using a big fancy sounding word like "literal" will do that for them.

it would appear that the OP, rather than attempting to use the word "literal" in an alternate context or meaning, simply has no understanding of what the word means:

"The Titanic passengers are literally swinging from the chandeliers"

there's no conceivable sense or meaning for the word "literally" in this context, that i can detect - can you?

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 22:25 | 5757281 F-X
F-X's picture

It's generally considered acceptable in informal speech

 

1. Oxford (informal) used to emphasize a word or phrase, even if it is not actually true in a literal sense

I literally jumped out of my skin

2. Cambridge - informal - used to emphasize what you are saying: He missed that kick literally by miles!  

3. MacMillan 

used when you are describing something in an extreme way that  cannot be true - When I told him the news he literally exploded.
Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:35 | 5757763 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

this is exactly my point:

"Oxford (informal) used to emphasize a word or phrase, even if it is not actually true in a literal sense"

if it's not actually true in a literal sense, don't use the word "literal"!

only a pretentious, ignorant moron would do that.

the truth does not need to be emphasized or otherwise embellished, it can stand on its own.


Sun, 02/08/2015 - 04:07 | 5757794 F-X
F-X's picture

Well, here's three of the world's greatest dictionaris saying it's accepted in informal speech and writing. And you could hardly call Zerohedge comments formal writing.

So are the writers of Oxford, Cambridge and MacMillan "pretentious ignorant morons"? Of course not. They study fairly sytematically how the language evolves and is used in the present and they reflect this in their dictionaries.  Otherwise the only people who would use their dictionaries would be pretentious old farts. 

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 12:49 | 5758484 logicalman
logicalman's picture

And I thought this thread was about the Canadian housing market!

Silly me.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:43 | 5757031 loonyleft
loonyleft's picture

Drive down the 'industrial' areas of Surrey, Langley and more and all you see are window companies, door companies, flooring, furniture, hot tubs, granite, cabinet makers, carpeting and more. It seems like 90% of buildings when they are filled are housing related. It's a big giant set of dominoes. 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 23:09 | 5757384 Event Horizon
Event Horizon's picture

These stories on ZH have become the Dennis Gartman call for Vancouver housing.. I have read these stories for years and years here and always Vancouver RE goes up right after,, Just last year I was trashed, as usual, by the ZH crowd for trying to explain what everyone misses about the Vanvouver market metrics and guess what,, my property is up 11% and almost $200,000 since...  We'll get standard corrections of 10-15% but no crash,, I can't really comment on the rest of Canada but Albertans are moving to BC now, and prices are about to spike again here,, Inventory is way down for SFH,,  condos have been flat though,, I'd explain AGAIN why the Vancouver market is different and perpetually overvalued by standard metrics but nobody gives a shit, they just want to trash people,, I know so many people that have sold or rented thinking the prices would crash and have been left behind or shut out of the market..

It looks like we are going to have a booming Spring season for the SFH prices... I'd guess another $200,000 by summer..  just before QE4, then off we go again...

My property has gone up on average over $100,000 per year for 14 years since we built.. if I listened to the ZH articles bashing Vancouver RE years ago calling the crash, I would have left at least  1 million$$s behind...

So, thanks Tyler Gartman..

Here is just one metric that you need to grasp to even begin to understand  the Vancouver RE market,, what percentage of land is private in BC,  and how much of that is developed for residential (not agricultural zoned) and how much is livable/desirable...  go learn that and you will understand why the pundits are wrong and always have been about Vancouver area RE for about 40 years....

 

It is the land stupid,,, 5% is private, much less is developed/desirable/zoned for residential due to geography, climate and zoning, compare to US average of 60% private... most States are in 80-90% private range..

that'll get the trolls going...

 

 

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 02:42 | 5757725 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

All it will take is for the earth to shake around a bit and the delta will turn to mud,

And the tsunami will wash it all away.

 

Then Vancouver will be worth fuck all.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 10:13 | 5758142 Event Horizon
Event Horizon's picture

um NOPE,,

Only the Richmond area, a small percentage of the Greater Vancouver area and mostly agricultural zoned areas are low and susceptible to liquifaction..

Since most of the Greater Vancouver area is not low, a liquifation event or flood would reduce the tight land supply and further raise prices..

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 16:54 | 5759328 pitz
pitz's picture

Land supply in the GVR isn't 'tight' by any stretch.  Not sure where such nonsense emanates from, but it simply isn't true.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 20:47 | 5760193 Event Horizon
Event Horizon's picture

Completely illogical statement..  How do you dismiss "tight" in a sky high price environment,,

 

It isn't tight if you want to pay up, there is land available for a high price,  it is its tightness that makes the prices so high.. 

 

So, you are wrong, prices would not be sky high if there were an abundance of residential land..

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:55 | 5756428 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Bring it on. Ill trade a monster box for a house while watching my ex wife lose hers.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 23:50 | 5757500 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"If rates rise or if commodity prices continue to fall then it’s likely that Canada’s housing market will come under pressure."

Are they not under pressure already, the CAD has been falling? What, more falling?

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:45 | 5757772 Nage42
Nage42's picture

Your ex-wife has a "monster box?!?" Maybe you used it a bit roughly during "your tenancy?"

Wait... are we talking about ex-wives, houses, or monsters... now I'm confused.  ;)

 

Hehe

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:23 | 5756434 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, there goes affordability up Nunavut way on Hudson's Bay

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:50 | 5756547 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Building materials are basically free there. During the winter anyway...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:33 | 5756689 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
Houston multifamily developers scramble to find funding amid oil slump

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/2015/02/houston-multifamily-deve...

 

Bankers are not sure anymore if they can simply lend and walk away form all those bad loans.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:45 | 5756717 new game
new game's picture

build it and they will come. the cb will surely bail ytheir asses out, huh? bankers worried? fucken eh, walking at night should be their biggest worry, not to mention job site accidents with nailguns...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:50 | 5756747 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Solid analysis, but I have to believe,

  there is always a market for beaver.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:10 | 5756800 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Bad boy ;-)

Miffed

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:52 | 5756751 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Most of Vancouver was sold to Chinese offshore and Triad money laundering, much like NYC and Miami. CBC 5th Est. did a deep dive on this, and reported on how large volumes of VC & Toronto property are held offshore and flipped once the 200 day cash window elapses.

I'd argue much like when the 1980's S&L fiasco happened, and most of those laundering shells ran out of liquidity, they will become abandoned, and will likely be confiscated as abandoned developments / condos by the Canada gov. under Criminal Code.

The plot should focus on how and who these guys were, and how they managed to get in so tight with NYC and Vancouver establishment since 2008.

On another note, and something alt. media should focus on

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/us-rosneft-funding-trafigura-e...

Rosneft is raising money from Swiss trader Trafigura

Remember when Obama said he had the Treasury special task force ensuring the US was preventing Russia from getting new funds from the US ? Remember when the ECB said they were being diligent on preventing Russians from gaining access to US backed money conduits ? Remember when Obama tried to kill Glencore due to trade in Urals physical ?

Good times.

I wonder if Glencore and Merc can sue the US gov. for selective enforcement like a certain oil trading company did under the early Carter ban on oil back in the day.

Food for thought.


Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:26 | 5756452 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Did anyone ever think it's more expensive in Vancouver than Sydney London and New York because it's way fucking nicer there?

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:36 | 5756481 ronron
ronron's picture

yep and cheap buds.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:40 | 5756501 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Most of Sydney is an unrelenting shithole.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 00:40 | 5757583 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

Agreed. Such a shame that people from overseas often visit that dump first - there are much MUCH nicer cities.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 04:42 | 5757818 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Livin large on the GC brother.
And wondering why I stayed in that dump for so long.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:13 | 5757092 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

I live in Vancouver. Is it nice here? You bet. It also rains over half the year and when it's not raining, there's an excellent chance it's overcast and looks like it wants to rain.

2nd rainiest city in the world, actually. Oh, and did I mention, it's in Canada. Yeah, the frozen north. Not much exciting about Canada, good luck traveling within the country on vacation, you'll run out of options pretty fast, unless you're big on hunting and snowshoeing. Granted, some great ski hills though, so you can stay busy a while, but I'd take the UK or Australia over Canada any day.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 03:45 | 5757770 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

....yeah most of what you said there ain't no thang...... but the UK really?? I mean really??  In all of Canada you can't find a pub with poor food bad lighting and barmaids that actually use the term toothbrush as a literal reference to the accoutrement ....... oh wait though Scotland is still part to the UK ok yeah carry on....

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:41 | 5756505 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't worry, the Chinese are ready to hold the bag.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:38 | 5756875 ronron
ronron's picture

well son. there already holding the bag, and they won't return to china. take a walk down Spadina in TO.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 12:54 | 5758495 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Was down that way yesterday.

The world needs more places like Kensington, not less.

Trouble is the 'gentrification' of the area is ramping up.

Be a shame when it's all overpriced condos.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:42 | 5756513 lazysunday
lazysunday's picture

Did anyone take the time and look at the geography of these CDN cities? Vancouver is a island and Toronto has strict restrictions on what is left to be developed (Greenbelt), which essentially makes it an island as well. 

Also all these price to rent calculations only take into consideration purpose built rentals, in their calculations - if you take the condo-rental market into that calculation (which makes a considerable portion of the rental supply in Toronto and Vancouver) the ratio is roughly average to the rest of the world. 

And majority of home owners in Canada have skin in the game - you can't just make a business decision and walk away from your house without significant loss of capital capital and credit repercussions. 

I will say it is very difficult for first time homebuyers in Canada to purchase a house in these areas, but what major city in the world where it is easy for these people to buy homes? They are renters and usually is more prudent to do so anyways. 

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:50 | 5756544 pitz
pitz's picture

No land shortages in either Toronto or Vancouver. Simply taking a flight to/from those cities makes it apparently obvious.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:55 | 5756564 lazysunday
lazysunday's picture

Yeah that is what you think - Greater Toronto has approximately 7 million people and growing. All those lands you see from the plane - are protected for future development - see the green belt. 

And Vancouver is an island go do yourself a favour and look at google maps...if you want to build new homes in the rockies, yeah then there is a ton of land. 

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:32 | 5756677 pitz
pitz's picture

Not really.  There's huge amounts of low-density industrial lands which can easily be converted to residential uses, in both YVR and YYZ.  Additionally, tons of farmland in YVR.  Not protected, not 'green belt'.  Available for construction if legitimate demand actually existed.  But since rents aren't skyrocketing, we can logically conclude that the real issue in both cities is a financing bubble, not a land shortage. 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:53 | 5756921 lazysunday
lazysunday's picture

Yeah the next step would be to convert employment lands to residential or you can start going up in the air. Hence the chart about multifamily homes going nuts. As for Farm Land - majority of the Farm land in the YYZ is made up of small farms in the area, yes if you go north there are huge tracts of farm lands - but those are part of the greenbelt. I am not sure about YYZ but a quick look it doesn't seem the case. 

For a country that is so big, it actually only has a few places to live due to infrastructure and jobs. I will say, are home prices overvalued yes, but it isn't doom and gloom as you all would like to believe. 

Also one thing very few people know is that majority of all the future developable lands in YVR and YYZ are owned by a few developers - who are extremely liquid and very well captialized. And almost 99% are private corporations who don't have to keep increasing profits quarterly to appease the street. If shit does hit the fan, these guys just stop building and let supply shrink till the market comes back.

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:18 | 5757108 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Every city in a bubble has it's reason for thinking that real estate can never go down, heck, L.A.'s sounded far better than Vancouver's until it crashed.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:38 | 5756702 coscal2
coscal2's picture

Land shortage relative to NY, Hong Kong or London too? Sorry, but Canadian cities are not special, and this time is not different.

The article should also compare taxes (higher) and interest (not deductible)

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:47 | 5756735 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

lazysunday,

...vancouver is a island...?   vancouver island is an island, vancouver is on the main land.  

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:48 | 5756900 lazysunday
lazysunday's picture

It is island as it is surrounded by the ocean to the west, rockies in the north and east and the us border to the south. 

Go look at a map. 

 

 

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 16:52 | 5759320 pitz
pitz's picture

There's huge amounts of land unutilized or under-utilized within that so-called "island".   The "island"-claimers need to stop insulting our intelligence.  Airplanes and Google Maps are readily available if anyone wants to go see the truth.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:37 | 5757159 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

You've bought the rhetoric of developers hook line and sinker. That's so cliche in Vancouver. Every over indebted, paper millionaire, mortgage poor Vancouverite clings to that mantra.

Vancouver is not different, and when it crashes, the "Vancouver is an island" sell job will seem stupid in retrospect.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 17:49 | 5756539 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

Rates rise? Sure you jest.

Rates will never rise. The only thing that will rise is the rate of descent into nirp territory.

Central banks will print until the weight of the liabilities create a singularity that will swallow the planet.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:09 | 5756607 CoonT
CoonT's picture

Keep this bubble blowing for at least another year! Construction trades are mostly pulling in north of 6 figures (gunnin' for 2 this year) and that's pure, bubblicious insanity.

 

#5 is BS, BTW. Sure, multi-family is at record high, but it just took from single-family, which is in the pits. Which really sucks if you install HRV's for a living...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:41 | 5756888 jonytk
jonytk's picture

Remembers me of Spain in 2007 at the peak prices where around 500,000 houses were being built per year. Then prices started a slow but sure decline that still continues and more than a million construction workers losed their jobs.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:27 | 5756665 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

USA is 5% undervalued ?!

 

That discredits the entire chart imo. Looks to me like many areas are still about 40-60% overvalued.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 00:55 | 5757601 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

Nah it doesn't discredit it.

The 5% is over the entire country. Yes there are a few over valued pockets over there but on the whole houses are reasonable value. A work collegue of mine recently moved back to the US because he could live comfortably over there in a nice house and car with cash to spare for only a little more than he'd be renting a two bedroom flat for in Perth, Western Australia

He asked the boss for a pay rise because he couldn't afford to live here (comfotably) on around $70,000 a year. Boss said "sorry we can't afford it" so he fucked off back to the US much as it pained him to do so. He just couldn't justify living here.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:39 | 5756709 57-71
57-71's picture

Potentially somewhat skewed.

I have $130,000 LOC with a bank.

I don't owe any mony on it. So what is being reported on - actual credit use or bank credit available?

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:05 | 5756786 35 Whelen
35 Whelen's picture

Siimilar in my situation: Have pre-approval for 270K, but owe a fraction of that, but since it's a HELOC wihere I can simply phone in an increase, the whole amount counts as debt.  So, on the books it's 270K, in reality, it's under 50K on a home worth well north of 400K.  As well, in Canada personal debt is recorded not by what you owe, but by what you have access to.  So, those credit cards with 15K each on them, but which have a zero balance owing, still register as 15K of debt in the Canadian system.

I'm not sure the numbers in the article take this into account. 

As well, using Vancouver as a measuring stick is ludicrous.  Prices there are based on Asian bazillionaires buying their daughters and relatives places to live: as well as simply parking money in Canada.  Vancouver has had grossly inflated prices with hardly a correction for decades now. Since Vancouver is such an enormous part of the Canadian Real Estate economy, it screws the numbers.

Markets elsewhere are more organic, so IMO any national numbers that include Vancouver are not valid.  Take out Van, and then see where we sit.

It'll be fun to watch ... especially if there is a simple correction (long overdue and healthy BTW).  Every single ZH Canuck Terror Alert will be forgotten, along with the other 80% that go nowhere.

My prediction is significant corrections in Alberta, Saskatchewan, NFL, and somewhat in Toronto.  The rest will be a yawn.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:18 | 5756983 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

"My prediction is significant corrections in Alberta, Saskatchewan, NFL, and somewhat in Toronto.  The rest will be a yawn."

The biggest lies are the one we tell ourselves.....

 

 

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 20:54 | 5760207 FIAT CON
FIAT CON's picture

I disagree,

 There are literally thousands of workers or recently laid off/soon to be laid off workers from Alberta or the Bakken field that live in all parts of the country that have commuted to the oil patch for work.

In my town sice the pulp mill closed (1100 workers) a very large percentage of these workers commute to the oil patch for work, this is how they have kept the housing market stable in this town, their families have stayed and therefore spending is still in this town, which helps prop up the whole town.

 Soon this may change.

I also notice, nobody I know has any savings whatsoever and is financed to the hilt (It seems everyone just keeps themselves this way).

Combine these layoffs with the Maxed financing of the Canadian and not only is there a "Houston we have a problem" scenario but tho entire canadian economy will suffer.

The Banking industry has done a very good job of Convincing everyone to keep up with the jones (see the movie) for the past 30 years.

So couple the "I'll Gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today" with the Babyboomers past their peak spending, and paying of income taxes, soon they will be selling their homes and moving into old age homes this sets the stage for whopper of a correction.

The question is how long can TPTB keep this ponzi scheme going?

My guess, not for very much longer. 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:54 | 5756755 venturen
venturen's picture

Washington isn't higher as their incomes are WAY TOO MUCH. 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:56 | 5756758 Shaishen
Shaishen's picture

Median? Average? Vancouver, there are plenty of mansions and lux
apartments (Coal Harbor) sitting empty most of the year (Chinese
flight money). How can one assess the income of these property
owners to include it in the survey?
Prices are at a level where there are enough buyers to agree it
is a fair price, really that simple.  
Vancouver downtown on Frid/Sat night every top restaurant is booked
solid, the 1%-er car line ups are equal to Rodeo Dr. On the surface
only all is well? Maybe but so far the implosion predicted for years
did not happen. Perhaps the big earthquake will shake things up but
that too has been predicted for years and years...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:09 | 5756796 35 Whelen
35 Whelen's picture

To be valid, you need to include the incomes of the foreign bazillionaires who own vast amounts of Canuck property in Vancouver, and Toronto.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:22 | 5756837 Shaishen
Shaishen's picture

xactly, as if they going to tell you their incomes ... As you said, exclude Van
and run the numbers again

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 13:43 | 5762506 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

Not really.  These statistics are for the median, which is the middle value in a sorted list.  A few very high values at the top do increase the average, but they don't change the median by much.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:37 | 5756878 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Yes, housing is overvalued by about 50%. Full time jobs are few and the costs of gasoline are way out of wack compared to USA. The costs of goods are double what they are in the USA, and building construction materials are double what they are in the USA. Vehicles are 1/3 more than in the USA and the USA is shorting our dollar to fuck us BIG time.

In sum, multi-family dwellings sell because that is the only way people can downsize without winding up living under a bridge. Single family

dwellings in Vancouver go for well over a million per even for a tar paper shack. Single family homes in TO go for a million as well. Condos are being built in every city because Goldman Sachs Hedge Funds actually own them en masse. Like the empty condos in China and the empty condos in New York City, Toronto and Vancouver are doing the exact same shit here. Everything is being funded off of debt and the jobs cannot keep up to the payments which automatically renders the more expensive single family homes unaffordable to everyone except the Oligarchs from China and the Yanks that like Steven Harper and his Conservative criminals that are destroying the country from within. If one lives on investments and does not need to work for living, CANADA is  just another place to live and learn whilst slowly going broke. Calgary housing is a bust

along with Alberta. Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Halifax, Kingston, et cetera, are better investment areas than most, but the jobs situation is creating the cracks in the rose coloured glasses view of it all. When the whole thing implodes I will evict our Prime Minister from 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa and sell off all of his furiture and guitars to recoup my losses.

p.s. I'm even thinking of putting a Mechanics Lien on 24 Sussex to recoup my loss on our downed dollar. Harper owes and Harper will pay come Hell or high water.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:04 | 5756944 Shaishen
Shaishen's picture

How can housing be overvalued?  As I said "Prices are at a level where
there are enough buyers to agree it is a fair price"
If somebody sees a million Dollar value in a tar paper shack then that
is the price. For you it might be overvalued but not for the buyer.
Your post is emotionally flavored, you don't like Harper, you don't have
to like him but if you live in Canada and he got elected so nothing you
can do about it other than move away.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:36 | 5757012 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

 

You might as well ask "how can the US dollar be overvalued?" But it's even worse in that houses are purchased using other people's money. Same thing with higher education. There is equilibrium in all things, but not all equilibrium is sustainable.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 21:02 | 5757068 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Harper engaged in FRAUD to take over the Federal Progressive Conservative Party and I formally complianed to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Major Crimes Unit when he did it. Frankly, I am seventh

generation CANADIAN, and my grandfather lost his leg in the First World War, and my father was RCAF in the Second World War. If you think that I would live elsewhere you don't know shit from shine-O-la

about me. I am as CANADIAN as they get, BuckO. Moreover, there is much I can do about Harper the fraudster and all the Conservatives and Progressive Conservatives know it because I am a card carrying Progressive Conservative that is involved in the party BIG time. Furthermore, the God damned Liberals know who am am as well because I complain about all of them on a weekly basis in MSM. Lastly, I ran for Mayor of Ottawa on the last municipal election and I speak on radio at least once per month.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:43 | 5756894 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Canadian resident. You left out the part about the price of oil plunging and taking the Calgary housing market with it. Any way you look at it Toronto's next.

What I've been telling people is this: All the major Toronto banks sold their head offices to property management firms long ago (last holdout was the Bank of Nova Scotia, I think). Why the heck should you buy a house when all the major banks rent theirs? They might know something you don't.

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:41 | 5757028 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Um, no. It's called tax writeoffs and various expenses. Something that's not treated the same way (GAAP) on those 4Qs versus owning the building and simply reporting a minimal increase in value.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 20:00 | 5756936 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Ouch.  Combine with crash of oil industry and you see why recession is immenent there.  US largest trading partner.  Oh well - Just BTFD

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 22:04 | 5757226 PermaBug
PermaBug's picture

these things always seem to take a lot longer to play out than you expect. The fact that people can't walk away from their debts will probably make it worse, when it happens.

Parts of Vancouver are great, parts are worse than any city in central america. It's true there's not a lot of room to expand. of course if you want to be a 3 hour commute away there's room.

Toronto as well. Of course there is an endless amount of land on the outskirts, but traffic is already some of the worst in NA. Who wants to commute 3 hours each way, even if it's only 40 klicks?

Patience my friend, patience, it will all come tumbling down eventually.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 01:51 | 5757671 JoJoJo
JoJoJo's picture

So the Cannucks are doing it Greek style to. Did the bankers make them do all this? No, it has been the cannucks own lust burying themselves in debt. The banks  could not say no or there would be a posse of Community Organizers picketing their homes screaming racism - even though they're all white

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 07:00 | 5757927 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Greece can't print. Canada can, and are. They have no problem stealing from their kids

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 09:20 | 5758053 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Every month I take a few hundreds out of the bank and it's almost always new bills.

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 06:59 | 5757926 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

It won't be long. The boomer demographic ship is about the crash into the dock of free health care. Add that spending to already high provincial debt and you have a recipe for long term suffering. The boomers own a good percentage of the high end housing and when they find out health care maybe be free but limited due to bankrupting provincial coffers, they will be spending on private health care to maintain their lifestyles.

The provincial governments have done little to nothing to prepare for the health care tsunami about to crash down on top of them. They have been spending like drunken sailors on infrastructure. Especially in Vancouver's home province

Sun, 02/08/2015 - 17:21 | 5759413 57-71
57-71's picture

Why the God Damn hell do all you asshats keep referring to Canadian heath care as free?

I live here, pay income tax here and trust me, the rate of tax makes it anything bit free.

Hint, I pay more in tax each year than the gross median wage.

Fuck off with the free.

Also, I have used the heath care system in this country very little my whole life, being blessed so far with great health. What I have used for testing and diagnostic prevention has been excellent. I always ask the Docs I see what they think of the differences between the 2 systems of public and private. So far all have expressed support for the system they work in.

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