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Global Conflict Intensity Spikes To 7-Year High

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If it’s not one geopolitical concern these days it’s invariably another. If today’s story isn’t weak-handed Greece escalating the rhetoric in its hopeless game of chicken with eurozone creditors, it’s ISIS ratcheting up the shock factor in a campaign to scare U.S. coalition partners away from an increasingly ineffectual bombing campaign in Syria and Iraq. If it’s not an escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, it’s logrolling between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia with the fate of the Assad regime, Gazprom, and the Russian economy at stake. As we’ve seen over the past several months (e.g. crude in a veritable tailspin) and over the past several days (e.g. hourly news out of Greece raining on the BLS’s non-farm revision parade), markets are becoming increasingly tethered to the vagaries of geopolitics -- and don’t expect that trend to abate any time soon.

Fortunately, BBVA is on the case, noting that “geopolitical analysis is becoming a key element on the agenda for 2015.” Indeed. That’s why the bank has just launched their first ever “BBVA Research conflict & social unrest monthly update.”

From BBVA, on conflict:

During January, the presence of ISIS in the Middle East continued to be a threat while the Russian-Ukrainian crisis escalated, increasing geopolitical worries in the region. In contrast, territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions eased in South-Eastern Asia. Social unrest related to demands for democracy (North Africa), together with terrorism and economic demands (Europe), have also increased…

 

...key hot spots continued to be the Russia-Ukraine and ISIS conflict. The Russian-Ukraine crisis escalated again in January (see our previous hot topic) after a relatively calmer period during October-November. This triggered a new meeting in the EU level to discuss new sanctions. The situation in neighbouring countries (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia…) also remained tense.  In the Middle East, the International coalition forces regained some ground in Northern Syria (Kobane) and were able to stop the advance of ISIS in Iraq. However, it will take more time to secure peace in the region. Tensions also increased in Western Europe after the attacks in Paris and in Belgium.

And on protests:

Protests around the world have continued to intensify in January. Thus, the worsening trend since the fourth quarter of 2014 is still alive…

 

This means a return to tensions after the relaxation during last two years after the peak during the Arab Spring in 2011…

 

In regional terms, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries continued under social pressure. Demonstrations also intensified in western and central Europe and some Latin American countries, while they remained contained in most countries of East Asia.

Conflict and protest levels visualized:

 

*  *  *

As you can see, the number of world conflicts to total world events is at its highest level in seven years and the number of protests to total world events has spiked of late after falling precipitously since the good old days of the Arab Spring and 7% periphery 10-year yields.

 

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Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:07 | 5756599 trader1
trader1's picture

will gold bulls live to die another day?

or will gold bulls be sacrificed for da' bears?

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:11 | 5756614 Jack Burtan
Jack Burtan's picture

Getting real sporty out there.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:19 | 5756636 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Blood sporty.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:31 | 5756682 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Say... if you go to a peaceful protest and then suddenly guys dressed in black wearing start smashing windows and setting police cars on fire... well... Is it legal to grab and unmask these fucking perps or will you get charged with assaulting police?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-toronto-g20-riot-fraud-undercover-polic...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:44 | 5756728 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Well if you pay someone to put in plastic gas tanks, and you use a flair, you prolly won't even have to talk to the cops.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:04 | 5756782 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

How do those responsible for ordering the chemtrails avoid having themselves and their family members from getting exposed to them?

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:21 | 5756642 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

the number of world conflicts to total world events is at its highest level in seven years

 

The Nobel Prize Winner has bombed seven Muslim countries and destabilized Ukraine and labeled Putin as as an insane mass-murderer.  And he wants to send American weapons to Ukraine.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:23 | 5756653 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Time for another Pizza prize.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:30 | 5756680 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The local gun store seems to be doing brisk business every time I visit, which is often. People may be hesitant to believe the unthinkable, and yet they seem to be preparing for the worst. Go figure.

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:36 | 5756694 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And the doomsdayclock is pretty close to 12h as we speak...

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:43 | 5756724 winchester
winchester's picture

this is all BS...

 

richs go NH to buy homes, why, you think in global nuke any land is safe ? lol... it is just to prevent poors to swim to them...

this is  perfectly orchestrated, we have DECADES of circus before any morron dumbass  tv raised kid take consciousness of the reality.... as we write and read every second a kid is loosing ability to self thinking and to fight ( by extention ) for his rights ans lifestyle, i know HUNDREADS of ppl who prefer to put their life in others hands just to feel the safety of the living up to their supposed ends, without the ability to make their own choose.

we are at a societal crossroad, and mass mendkind is choising facility, which usually lead to problems.

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 18:38 | 5756700 surf0766
surf0766's picture

That is 7 year low. Flip the chat. Dear Leader has parted the seas and the progressive baby boomer utopia is here.

 

 

Sat, 02/07/2015 - 19:16 | 5756821 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

It is a Shemitah year with 4 blood moons.

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