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Greece Gambles On "Catastrophic Armageddon" For Europe, Warns It "Only Has Weeks Of Cash Left"
One of the bigger problems facing the new, upstart Greek government, which has set before itself the lofty goal of overturning 6 years of oppressive European policies and countless generations of Greek cronyism, corruption and tax-evasion is not so much the concern about deposit outflows and bank runs - even though it most certainly will be in the next few days unless the Tsipras government finds some resolution to the dramatic standoff with Merkel and the ECB - but something far more trivial: running out of money.
Recall that two weeks into the Greek elections, Greece was rocked by a dire, if entirely underappreciated development, when its already "tax-paying challenged" population decided to completely hold off paying any taxes in advance hopes that the Tsipras government will "overturn" austerity. We wrote:
... while there will be no official confirmation whether Greece did or did not have a bank run for months, unless of course some bank keels over and dies in the interim, one thing is certain: with an increasing probability they may not have a "continuity-promoting" government in less than two weeks, Greeks tax remittances to the government, which were almost non-existent to begin with, have ground to a halt!
According to a second Kathimerini report, budget revenues have slumped over the last few days as a result of the upcoming elections and taxpayers’ uncertainty about the future: "Most taxpayers have chosen to delay their payments, given that the positions of the two main parties leading the election polls are diametrically opposite: Poll leader SYRIZA promises to cancel the ENFIA and even write off bad loans, while ruling New Democracy acknowledges the difficulties but is avoiding raising issues that would generate problems and fiscal consequences.
The dwindling state revenues will not only hamper the next government’s fiscal moves, but, given that the fiscal gap will expand, also negotiations with the country’s creditors.
The tax collection mechanism appears to be largely out of action while expired debts are swelling due to taxpayers’ wait-and-see tactics and the reduction in inspections.
So for battered, depressed Europe "austerity" really meant "taxation" - it is no surprise then why so many in peripheral Europe, who for the past 7 years have not seen any benefits from Germany's delay in reintroducing the Deutsche Mark (and keeping its export industry humming, and Deutsche Bank solvent, courtesy of the much lower Euro), hate "austerity" so much: after all there really should be no "austerity" without representation and most European voices hardly matter in a monetary "Union" where only bankers and unelected eurocrats are heard.
But going back to the main topic, namely the Greek liquidity situation, it was none other than the Eurogroup which late on Friday gave Greece a 10 day ultimatum to cede all demands and resume work under the Bailout program, or face a liquidity collapse and effective expulsion from the Eurozone. Which means suddenly Europe is engaged in the biggest bluff since 2012, as Greece and Europe both desperately try to outbluff each other that the "adversary" need it more than vice versa.
The problem is that Greece may not even have 10 days. As the WSJ reports, "Greece warned it was on course to run out of money within weeks if it doesn’t gain access to additional funds, effectively daring Germany and its other European creditors to let it fail and stumble out of the euro."
Greek Economy Minister George Stathakis said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that a recent drop in tax revenue and other government income had pushed the country’s finances to the brink of collapse.
“We will have liquidity problems in March if taxes don’t improve,” Mr. Stathakis said. “Then we’ll see how harsh Europe is.”
As we reported last month, "Government revenue has declined sharply in recent weeks, as Greeks with unpaid tax bills hold back from settling arrears, hoping the new leftist government will cut them a better deal. Many also aren’t paying an unpopular property tax that their new leaders campaigned against. Tax revenue dropped 7%, or about €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), in December from November and likely fell by a similar percentage in January, the minister said. Other senior Greek officials said the country would have trouble paying pensions and other charges beyond February."
Said otherwise, when Yanis Varoufakis responded to Europe that "Greece already is bankrupt" he knew exactly what he was talking about.
And as the WSJ further details, this means that the infamous ultimatum on Greece may have been set by none other than Greece itself!
Greece has made no secret of its precarious financial position, but the minister’s comments suggest the country has even less time than many policy makers thought to resolve its standoff with Europe.
Eurozone officials have asked Greece to come up with a specific funding plan by Wednesday, when finance ministers have called a special meeting to discuss the country’s financial situation.
The country needs €4 billion to €5 billion to tide it over until June, by which time it hopes to negotiate a broader deal with creditors, Mr. Stathakis said, adding that he believes “logic will prevail.” If it doesn’t, he warned, Greece “will be the first country to go bankrupt over €5 billion.”
What happens then: "If the Greek government runs out of cash, the country would be forced to default on its debts and reintroduce its own currency, thus abandoning the euro. Most of the €240 billion in aid that Europe and the International Monetary Fund have pumped into the country would be lost."
Of course, Greece knows all this. The bigger question is what does a Grexit mean for Europe. Recall it was in May 2012, just around the time of the second Greek bailout, that Charles Dallara, who as head of the International Institute of Finance (IIF) spent months in Athens negotiating the largest ever sovereign debt restructuring, said that "the damage to the rest of Europe from Greece leaving the euro would be "somewhere between catastrophic and Armageddon."
"I think that it (a Greek exit) is possible, but I wouldn't call it inevitable and I wouldn't even call it likely because the costs for Greece, for Europe and for the global economy are likely each in their own way to be immense."
"The pressures on Spain, Portugal, even Italy and conceivably Ireland could be immense and the need for Europe to step up with much greater support for the banking systems would be substantial."
If that isn't enough here is what Willem Buiter predicted:
As soon as Greece has exited, we expect the markets will focus on the country or countries most likely to exit next from the euro area. Any non-captive/financially sophisticated owner of a deposit account in that country (or in those countries) will withdraw his deposits from banks in countries deemed at risk - even a small risk - of exit. Any non-captive depositor who fears a non-zero risk of the future introduction of a New Escudo, a New Punt, a New Peseta or a New Lira (to name but the most obvious candidates) would withdraw his deposits from the countries involved at the drop of a hat and deposit them in the handful of countries likely to remain in the euro area no matter what - Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland.
The funding strike and deposit run out of the periphery euro area member states (defined very broadly), would create financial havoc and mostly like cause a financial crisis followed by a deep recession in the euro area broad periphery.
...
A banking crisis in the euro area and in the EU would most likely result from an exit by Greece from the euro area. The fundamental financial and real economy linkages from the rest of the world to the euro area and the rest of the EU are strong enough to make this a global concern.
And of course, there was Carmel's presentation from the summer of 2012, comparing the costs to Germany from a Euro staying together versus falling apart:
That is precisely the gambit the Greece is playing right now: in fact, that is the only gambit it has left - one final gamble that kicking Greece out of the Eurozone will have far more devastating consequences on the Eurozone, where not only is the ever-persistent threat of deposit bank run from the periphery one flashing red headline away, but where one after another anti-European party, from Spain's Podemos to Marine Le Pen's surge in France, are ascendent and may seek to recreate the Greek example unless Germany steps in in the last minute and concedes the Greek demands.
The problem is that as Merkel understands very well, should she concede to Greece, then she would be expected to concede to Italy, and Spain, and Portugal, and Ireland, and anyone else who came knocking at her door with a loaded gun and threatening to commit suicide. The WSJ picks up on this as well:
Europe wants Athens to commit to further labor-market and other reforms as a precondition for more money. The new government is refusing, arguing that it was elected to turn back many of the painful measures Europe and other creditors have demanded of it.
Berlin worries that the eurozone would lose leverage over Athens if it gives into its request for an interim loan. Without a binding agreement from Greece to continue its reform program, officials say Germany is unlikely to back down.
Berlin, which is counting on financial pressures to force the Greek government’s hand, believes time is on Germany’s side.
And for now, it is correct: "Those pressures are being felt across Greece’s economy. Its banks lost €8 billion to €10 billion in deposits in January alone, government officials say. The banking system’s woes were exacerbated by the ECB’s decision earlier in the week to no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral from banks seeking funds."
As Zero Hedge pointed out several times last week, both the ECB, the Eurogroup and even S&P, are no longer concerned about starting a bank run in Greece, as this would be the surest way to crush support for the new Greek government and force it to the negotiating table with its tale between its legs. Furthermore, in order to avoid giving the Greeks the satisfaction that their strong-arm policy is working, the central banks have done everything in their power to keep stock markets afloat and levitating this week, to avoid giving the impression that anyone in the world is concerned about contagion side-effects should Greece in fact exit the Eurozone. Or as we put it:
ECB leverage measured in Greek ATM lines;
Greek leverage measured inversely in the level of the Stoxx 50
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 5, 2015
This strategy may, however, backfire and result in even more support for the government which unlike its predecessors who were perceived merely as Europe's lackey muppets, refuses to concede to Merkel, which is a distinct risk for the German chancellor:
Germany’s strong-arm strategy carries substantial risk. In addition to possibly triggering Greece’s exit from the euro, it carries political overtones.
Many Europeans already view Germany as the continent’s unyielding paymaster. Refusing to compromise with Greece’s new government over a few billion euros would further cement that image and open Berlin to accusations that it is ignoring Greece’s plight and riding roughshod over the democratic process.
Such resentments could fuel Europe’s other ascendant anti-austerity movements, particularly in Spain, where the Podemos party, modeled on Greece’s governing leftists, has recently surged in the polls.
And that's the gamble in a nutshell: Greece has already bluffed with everything it has (even raising the specter that it will cooperate with Russia if Europe kicks it out, giving Putin a foothold on the continent) while Europe desperately pretends that Charles Dallara's warning from less than three years ago is no longer relevant and that a Grexit is not only neither "catastrophic" nor "Armageddon", but instead is welcome and perfectly normal.
We should know who will crack first as soon as this week, just before or during the Eurogroup emergency meeting on February 11, although Greece already appears to be regretting its liquidity shortfall threat, as Reuters reported earlier today it "will not face any cash crunch while negotiations with its euro zone partners on a new programme to roll back austerity take place, its deputy finance minister said on Saturday. "During the time span of the negotiations there is no problem (of liquidity). This does not mean that there will be a problem afterwards," Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas said on Mega TV. "Asked whether state coffers may encounter a cash crunch if talks drag on until May, the minister said he did not expect the negotiations over a new deal to last that long."
Indeed, if Greek negotiations fail, read if the bluff does not succeed, by May Greek state coffers will likely be getting funding from Beijing and or Moscow. Which then begs the question: has Greece indeed lost everything, allowing it to be finally free to do anything?
Additional reading: Game theory and euro breakup risk premium
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thanks for the link. great story. it is no surprise of course that this gigantic legal question of who has the right to create Canada's money is completely ignored by all msm. its implications are huge. they are winning the right to end their fed. uh, oh. the other debt slaves around the world might catch on. gotta keep that one quiet.
watched a clip from south africa... thought they were on the right track (suing bankers, challenging who prints money, etc) but ultimately got the Ubuntu party story and solution. As usual some truth leading one down the garden path of false solutions. Google them if you wish. Point is the truth is allowed out - with very selective framing.
This is exciting. Canadians could lead the way for world banking reform, if they can steer clear of false flags.
I love how the Chosenites vilify Socialism.
What they really don't want is for people to understand that :
Socialism isn't when you PRINT money and give it to those who don't earn their way.
THATS CAPITALISM.
Socialism is when you stop the rich from printing all the money and giving it to themselves!
self, NO! that is croney capitalism!
Money should be coin, silver or gold, period. Socialism is a wealth transfer mechanism.
get an education
Self-enslavement: You are incredibly ignorant. Please read some history. You will see that socialism, over time, turns to fascism and totalitarianism. It has to becasue free people don't want to be told how to live their lives by the "smart" ones with government jobs. So the government has to start getting tough/rough with people.
You have no idea what capitalism is. Hint: Capitalism turned the U.S. into the most powerful, well educated, country on the planet in record time. A country where our "poor" are wealthy compared to the poor in socialist countries. Then socialism started to creep into the U.S. with the massive expansion of government, government control, and government power. Now we go to jail if we don't purchase what Dear Leader Obama (the government) tells us to purchase. That is NOT capitalism.
Yes, Creepy. I fully support Capitalism.
However, we only have experienced Capitalism while a FED existed with fiat printing. Yes the USD was Gold backed more or less until 1971.
US Capitalism was ON/OFF after the US Civil War, and the FED was created to help fund US involvement in WWI.
What would have happened if no FED and fiat finance...I say this knowning eventually all fiat backed economies collapse.
If we never had FED fiat printing and "modern" creative finance would modern Capitalism exist ? {that is the main issue }
Can Capitalism stand on its own, given all the corruption and politics ?
Politics and corruption may destroy the benefits of Capitalism, or corrode Capitalism's benefits.
Is there any hope Capitalism without FED fiat fianance can survive and thrive ? (I hope so).
Fascinating.
"Inflation is taxation without representation."
"Is there any hope Capitalism without FED fiat fianance can survive and thrive ? (I hope so).
'Inflation is taxation without representation.'"
I agree completely. The Fed and fiat currency is not real capitalisim.
Can we return to a capitalist economy with a moral foundation? Probably not until everything collapses due to the crushing weight of the socialistic takeover. Then the question is: Will we go full tilt socialism/fascism/totalitarianism due to ignorant voters (yes, voting does matter) or will we revert to the U.S. Constitution and go back to capitalisim where all who work for it can and will thrive? The more people there are dependent on government for their livelihoods the less likely we will go away from the socialistic/totalitarian state. Human nature is to be lazy. People already on the dole will not want to change and start having to earn what they get.
THANKS for that link, ZerOhead!
I was following that story previously.
Excellent Videos on Money Systems:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN2USVC6QYQ
Link to Statement of Claim in COMER court case.
UP UNTIL THE NEWS YOU POINTED OUT ZerOHead, the Canadian courts were dismissing that case:
http://secure.campaigner.com/Campaigner/Public/t.show?666qg--3a97l-7g5ixo6&_v=2
Mr. Galati believes the govt controls the MSM in not reporting this case. It's the other way around.
You are intellectually honest, Radical Marijuana, and that's why you stand out above the rest IMHO. Nothing pisses me off more than intellectualy dishonesty, and that is why I hold you in high regard.
From the very first post I read of yours I recognized that you are worthy of a read when I see your posts. Keep up the good work!
cheers
Rad, please do educate us on what Socialism means...rather than a cryptic one liner
All that ranting, Radical Marijuana, about people supposesdly "misusing" the word socialism -- and yet you fail to set the record set for the unwashed masses. Your rant is just more statist subterfuge and doublespeak.
Socialists feel a great indebtedness to their fellow man, which debt they propose to pay off with your money.
We Socialists feel no indebtness at all. We feel sorry for you sociopaths.
Incredible, you sponge off of others to pay your way, and feel no remourse!? Your wealth redistribution schemes, like those of Oblahblah, are rubbish. Your praise of Adolf is quite telling, it is people like you that are the problem, and your kind have now transformed Amerika into a banana repuplic, and I rebuke your kind in total. asshat
OT but does anyone know what happened to yesterday's story about the Soviet submarine officer during the Cuban missile crisis? I was out yesterday and wanted to read it today but it vanished.
Finally, things are getting interesting. TV is so boring.
What we need now is for the Greeks to take hostages.
Haven't you noticed all the Blazing Saddles references of late? The have taken hostages - their own selves.
"One move and the lazy Greek gets it. I'm warning you, don't make me use this on myself?"
I was thinking more like Spinal Tap here.
"Hello, Detroit!
Let's ROCK AND ROLL!
Hello....
Let's ....
Hello ....
Let's ....
ROCK AND ROLL!
ROCK ANX ROLL!
oh we're gonna rock and roll alright, just not the way most people think!
oh we're gonna rock and roll alright, just not the way most people think!
If you want drama and suspense this programming simply can't be beat... unfortunately the consequences are all too real.
P.S. Depending upon how this Mexican standoff ends either the European Union or the Greeks themselves will become the hostages.
Globally the Chosenites, as predicted, are getting fricking hysterical again.
They tend to do that when YOU STOP THEM FROM STEALING.
they've got to turn away from troika, print their own currency NOW and negotiate a deal with russia, china to buy their currency for trade deals, port deals.
how much gold or silver does greece even have left? I never see any stats on that. I assume that would have been the first asset the greedy ECB would have seized.
"The document confirmed to the Greek lawmakers that the gold reserves, which amount to 3.76 million ounces, are stored at the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and in Switzerland."
Since they dont have the gold in country, they might as well not have any. If they default on their debt, there is no way they will get the gold returned.
Me charts for this week. Plus a funny video. Enjoy.
http://thetradingcrucible.blogspot.com/
Print something......anything
Print Merkel servicing a giant...
Armaggedon??? lmfao...Have Merkel give us a full Monte...that would be Armageddon.
I was hoping for a more curvaceous and appealing Queen of Babylon.
But we get Merkel and Yellen.
Lagarde needs to step up to the role...perhaps to 'print' fiat for Europe ?
Open the gates (of Hell) ?
I'll see your ten days, and raise you... seven days.
Does this mean we could finally see Godot by say, the middle of next week?
"Waitin's just another word for nothin' left to lose"
Not unless the printers breakdown.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.
Strong arming them could be very dangerous right now. What if the Greeks say fuck it, and decide to just get out anyway, bank runs or no bank runs. As the EU sinks into deeper and deeper depression, Germany will be increasingly blamed for overplaying their hand with all sorts of accusations flying around. Oh and BTW if Greece exits it will be a clear and strong signal of the ECB losing control. A major central bank losing control is an end of the world scenario right now. So not happening. There will be some totally bullshit compromise at the last moment.
Seriously. All the Greeks gotta do is "Just say no!" and Germany gets blamed for the Grexit, canning of the Euro and mass bank write-offs.
It's Opa time!
Thats really all it is.
All this rending of clothes & gnashing of teeth is complete theater. In six months time, we'll be talking about the "socialist miracle" of Greece. In two years time, we'll be talking about the collapse of the european union, whatever contrived concept that is.
And how much you wanna bet no guillotines will be involved over this "financial crisis" yet again, why its almost as if it was planned from the start ;-)
LOL, in less than a year, this shitshow called the global economy will be embers, there will be no miracles, no shinning Greece, nothing but ashes of what was once a global economy
mark my words, it is all done and done, fini, caput...
then there will be real war, like no other
Not!
Ask the barbecued Jordanian Pilot whether the "real" war won't be coming for a year.
War has been "real" for millions of people for years. But it doesn't exist yet if it hasn't affected you, right?
the real war i speak of does not include bullets, tanks or soldiers, my friend, you will understand soon enuff
If we're on the same page, I'm pretty sure this "real war"will include bullets.
they bullets will be a sideshow
WowTM
Reminds me of this.
Xerces 250,000 vs. King Leonidas 300
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvILGIIVsMU
Facial rat cages, pal, facial rat cages.
Makes what you're thinking of Howdy Doody Time.
It's going to be very interesting to see what Putin will do. Russian bases in Greece in exchange for...
Let's get this over with. People who are prepared are never going to be as peppered as they want to be. People who haven't started preparing by now never will. So let's just get this nonsense started already so we can move on eventually.
spot on DI, you get it, this shitshow is going down soon...
Define soon.
This YEAR!
They will get a new cash-out refi with a 300 year mortgage. Done & done! Money to feed the serfs and pay the pensions and the banks get to claim a new loan, bigger profits and a steady "revenue stream" for 300 years. What a deal!
300 year, negative interest, full amortized, no payments necessary. What's not to like?
I wouldn't give this country any money. I'd start openning up soup kitchens and help feed the idiot population, but fuck printing more shit from thin-air and handing it out to them in paper bags. Greek civilians need to learn the hard way. The Government should start selling Crown land to foreign investors in return for liquidity. Eventually, it won't be Greece anymore. More like Russia II.
They're going to learn the hard way. They bitched and wined when government expenditures fell by 3% and called it austerity, and instead voted in a socialist government that is going down the same path to ruin of spending a shitload of money they don't have. We all know what's going to happen. Back to the drachma, hyper inflation, mass food and basic necessities shortages, aka Venezuela 2.0.
Agreed, but I don't think it will be Venezuela 2.0.
More like Greece 2.1
What do you think would happen in the US if .gov cut spending by 3%? People would go ballistic. The US herd is just like the Greek herd. The Greek government pandered to the electorate and promised shit they could not afford. Most people to this day do not understand economics and the consequences of debt.
NL, no-one gave Greece any "money" in the first place. A bunch of private banksters conned the state and the population into believing they were lent something and had an obligation to pay it back, with interest. No money was ever lent. That was a lie. Therefore, under the Odious Debt rules there's nothing to pay back. If the world gets the parasitic banksters off their collective backs they'll get along just fine thank you very much. As for "selling crown land", that is such a bankrupt concept I don't even know where to start. I was one of the red down arrows on the basis of that asinine comment alone.
Yes.......my posting was a bankrupt comment..............fitting for a bankrupt nation.
I reserve to right to make this comment based on the fact the IMF came knocking on Canada's door 2 years ago asking for a handout during the Greek/Cyprus fallout.
I'll be dipped in dogshit if I'm gonna work so that some fucker across the ocean can get a free handout. I got enough problems with the parasites on this side of the lake.
If we are printing it out of thin air, I would rather regular greeks get the money than asshole rich bankers! Let's not pretend that financial industry folks work that goddamn hard!
#greeksexmatters (That's payin interest you can't pay on loans that are really no good.)
Mother Russia will take her
under her boot
Cause the German boot is working out for them so fantastically well ...
i guess they will see which boot is harder
If you have to lick something on a daily basis I don't think hardness or density matters all that much. I think the sense that really determines the nature of the experience is taste. What does that boot taste like? I keep thinking of the soap eating scene in 'A Christmas Story'. Lifeboy? Yuch. There's so many other soaps to suck on like LUX and Palmolive that are so much better.
. http://youtu.be/4KjxFDGFKhk
#hairybuttholes
That can be fixed. It's called a Brazilian, but I've been told it hurts wayyyyyyy moar than even fiscal responsibility.
"unless the Tsipras government finds some resolution to the dramatic standoff with Merkel and the ECB - but something far more trivial: running out of money stolen from the private sector."
- Fixed it for you
What "private sector" is there in Greece?
We talking about the little cafe's and gyro stands on the strip?
Last I heard, there were cities littered across Greece where 3 out of 4 citizens worked for the government.
There is no private enterprise in Greece. The last ones should have left 3 years ago.
Most Greeks would have left the country and tried to find work elsewhere. Those that have remained are the non-productive parasites who have been sucking on social services since forever.
Isn't that Ireland, too? Without the tax breaks?
Turn Greece into the next Cayman Islands, under a BRICS umbrella, and watch them fly.
The bailout money was primarily stolen from private sector Germans.
Yup, Private sector Germans are to Europe what the White middle class is to the U.S., The ultimate victims of this global financial gang rape.
This just proves if your nation lacks the power to print, then total collapse is inevitable.
Lets ask this, "Without the Power to Print, where would these places be at?"
The USA - tomorrow we lost all ability to print dollars from nothing
The UK - tomorrow the UK lost the ability to print from nothing
The EU - tomorrow they lost the power to print from nothing
What really WOULD happen to this great economic and financial powers if THEY could not print?
The EU can solve all it's problems for now, just be getting rid of an inconvenient government. Accidents do happen. Coups are not unkown in Greece. And the USA is master of the False Flag.
don't worry about the money printing thing
a chip in hand will the master require
The "power to print" is nothing but the "power to steal".
dead on !
we would have a totally different world today without money printing....
Greece is ballsy. But when your children are main-lining smack and your girls will sell themselves for $5 a throw, courage maybe comes cheap!!
Or Greece becomes the first recipient of BRICS Bank funding/trade agreements. There would be transition problems, but not insurmountable.
In the meantime, Russia and Greece sue Germany for WWII reparations. If the Jewish community was reimbursed, how could everyone else not be? A real PR nightmare, for both the Germans and the Jews. God help them now if they say they're the only ones entitled to reparations. Hell, Russian and Greece might even hire Jewish lawyers.
Then every other country invaded by Hitler. Of course, the lawyers would go for the 'deep pockets', so who financed Hitler's war machine?
http://www.nazinexus.com/index.php?page=10127
(written by a Jewish author, with 10 Pulitzer nominations)
Putin has all the moral cards in this crisis. The only thing the West has is nuclear weapons, and EU bodies.
Good luck to everyone. Game theory suggests this doesn't end well.
"Putin has all the moral cards in this crisis."
Ha. Putin has his dick in his hands, and that's about it. He can barely stay ahead of these retarded goons in the white house, that's pretty sad.
Not Too Important, what a surprise, my browser gives "server not found" for your link.
Fortunately, archive.org has a cached copy (latest): https://web.archive.org/web/20141126031723/http://nazinexus.com/index.php?page=10127
The Germans better be careful as I think Greece is getting very close to the "Oh well, fuck it" stage.
And as fragile a state is a Europe is in, I can't see how it won't be calamitous.
And if Greece does leave and does somewhat well, Spain will be next with Podemos leading in elections polls for this fall.
Caving in on Greece would be catastrophic for German domestic politics and shatter their position on the EU. I think it's the Germans saying "fuck the Greece" at this point. Should be a good, fun ride in any case.
Oh and if you think Greece would do "well" enough to bolster the anti-EU forces anywhere short term, you are very mistaken. An exit would be disastrous for Greece, but in a couple years it could experience a rapid recovery. The propaganda value of "a painful Greek experience" in an exit scenario shouldn't be underestimated.
We've got ourselves a classic Mexican standoff.
For Greece, it's not about economics and politics, so much.
When one thinks they've been slighted, people tend to act "irrationally".
And at this point, Germany has more to lose than Greece (who's already in the gutter).
Mexican Standoff! +100.
Maybe the Germans will get smart and dump Merkel. And why do so many, mianly, older Germans love putting that stupid blue flag on their cars? They have this insane pride over the EU police state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN0UaCbFyF0
Nigel Farage - "We don't want that flag!" "Old Baroso looks like he has seen a ghost." LOL!
2010 speech
I think they should back the drachma by a weight of silver.....
and only print the cost of their own government.....
no borrowing ever for Greece.
I mention to Europeans traveling that they are causing the same thing they seek to prevent - this is the 4th or 5th round of this Euro-idiocy since 1800 - and they just look at me with a blank experession.
Europe's default state is one of war and conflict, and has been since the Industrial Revolution.
Before then, it was only in conflict half the time..
Europe, mother of all insanities. Biggest death trap ever invented.
- WW1
- WW2
- The Holocaust
- Marxism
- Socialism
- Nazism
- Fascism
The Russians and America should just preemptively nuke the place and world would be a better place going forward
(I'm being sarcastic ... Or am I)
You forgot the Crusades, the Inquisition, the Witch Burnings... and more wars than you can shake a stick at.
I was just doing the last hundred years. The most popular sport in Europe is them killing themselves. This is closely followed by soccer.
That is cause they didnt have anyone else to kill. Once in the America's they took it all out on the Native Americans, and when they were finished off they turned on each other again with the civil war. This is what happens when you adopt religions from the the Middle East. That is where they first started to do all the killing.
White man's burden Lloyd my man. White man's burden.
http://youtu.be/60WR8dB0H-s
So China, Japan, India, Africa never had wars before ME religions? What a limited knowledge of history you have.
I just cannot comprehend how you get so many up votes, your skewed sense of history is truly one for the books!
I gues you must have listened to Obama recently noben...it wont matter about any of that shortly. oh well
And that is what makes it an interesting place to visit.......unlike Disney Land.....
You omitted acouple of biggies:
Colonialism
Slavery
What's with the neg rep? The Europeans knocked off an easy 100 million of themselves in the last one hundred years. That's a million per year on average give or take. Thats a fantastic on base percentage. You guys lead over all the other continents by a mile. You're like the A-Rod of slaughterhouses.
I'm sure if you read a history book, you'll find that both slavery and colonialism go alot further back in human history than European civilization.
its works just as well today on "western" nations and peoples... or are some forgetting what "Austerity' is about?
history books wont mention the power families that arranged all that.
Congratulations on reciting apparent cause. Now do the same for ultimate cause. The list of those involved is shorter, much shorter.
Congratulations on reciting apparent cause. Now do the same for ultimate cause. The list of those involved is shorter, much shorter.
Regardless...............I'm visiting my bullion dealer Monday morning.
Is it a good idea to short the EUR now?
Greece should short the EUR (big time!), just before they default.
If I was Tsipras, I'd pull outta of the Euro and load up a Brinks truck with a bunch of fresh drachmas and send it to Berlin.
"You want your money back, Angela? Here ya go!"
They will need that paper to wipe their asses with after they don't pay up
Ignore those people that are moving shit piles of money out of the country.
http://customstoday.com.pk/greek-businessman-caught-by-cyprus-customs-wi...
interesting...so the european monetary union for moving cash within europe (not outside it) means a citizen is subject to national rules on the movement of euro currency?
sounds like it is not a monetary union already.
does target2 fail if sevral hundred billion of greek liabiities fail? does the technical system (largest on the world) instantaenoulsy process defaults by crediting the accounts of those (including global banks, pension funds and insurance companies as well as letters of credit processed for trade deals etc)?
Main objectives of TARGET2: Supporting the implementation of the Eurosystem's monetary policy and the functioning of the euro money market; Minimising systemic risk in the payments market; Increasing the efficiency of cross-border payments in euro. By meeting these objectives, TARGET contributes to the integration and stability of the euro area money market.
skip to page 14 out of 22 to see how german banks reduced Bay of PIIGS exposures between 2008 and 2012
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDMQ...
Cui bono from a failure of the Target2 (European version of RTGS and the largest clearing system in the world processing half a million transactions a day worth the 2-3 trillion dollars or euro).
We must all support the banking System.
It would be wise, my friends.
nice sarcasm august
i pulled my $$ out a while ago, to hell with the money changers
"We must all support the banking System."
Hummmm, yes dear.
Just like these folks are.:
http://wakeupfromyourslumber.com/spain-young-and-old-rich-and-poor-join-...
Europe only has weeks left until Greece gravy train revenue income dissolves. Fixed Chaos title under Brian Williams advice. /Sarc
Why Are You Telling Me?
enjoy...
yes, it's your wold, i'm just living in it!
soap
For Greece; third time may be 'free the shackles charm'.
LOL Molly, that is not using your noodle, they are dead broke, so is the EU, so is USA...
watch the video I posted above
ain't no charms left my dear, none
I was going to fucking pound you into ground until. Thanks for all you do, we are just messengers. God bless..
Your handle is holy within fight club
until?
Amen brother...get right with the man upstairs, no human being, no govt, nothing is gonna save this global farce, it is way of out of control...soon things go boom
We are on same platform. do another story. Grandpa Warren will hate this.
Cognitive Framing
A frame is a psychological device that offers a perspective and manipulates salience to influence subsequent judgment. By inviting to view the topic from a certain perspective it not only offers a perspective but manages the observer's alignment in relation to the subject. In a visual field some objects are perceived as prominent while others recede in the background. Directing the viewer to consider certain features and to ignore others, perception is organized around the frame and may be resized to fit within the constraints of the framework. By implying a certain organization for the information it co-creates the picture and influences judgment and information received. Influencing the way a problem is perceived can lead to radically different solutions. According to Prospect Theory, humans give priority to not loosing. Gains are secondary to "no loss". Framing a decision in terms of possible loss should motivate more than framing the same decision in terms of possible gain, a person is more likely to follow conservative strategies when presented with a positively-framed dilemma and choosing risky strategies when presented with negatively-framed ones.
All variants of the Frame Problem in a theory of mind are special cases of the problem of complete description. It not only appears within the situation calculus for representing a constantly changing world, closely related to the general problem of the "laws of motion" which can adequately describe the world, but also in prediction, induction, reasoning, natural language understanding, learning and other problems. It is generally not possible to specify the necessary and sufficient conditions for anything and it is even unknown what is meant by "a complete description" of, for example, everything that is relevant for a particular action in a particular situation in view of a particular goal. A prevailing framing effect is in media itself where news programs may even try to follow the rules for objective reporting and yet inadvertently convey a dominant framing of the news that prevents most audience members from making a balanced assessment of a situation.
The nigger in the white house won't like the peasant's blacklashing NSA intel against them.
aha, i see, well done
You understand. I don't do google+ or/and other social media bullshit. This is my home. Get on the next segment, we are month's ahead until MSM reports. They hate us, who the fuck cares..
I do...social media, lol, it is a tracking mechanism, google is a rube.
I can say, I did like the vid you posted...I say it all the time, if the avg joe knew what was going on there would be a fucking revolution by tomorrow at noon. the turnips are drugged, fat and lazy, watching Kim's fat ass
it is no joking matter
'watch the video I posted above ain't no charms left my dear, none/ molloy'
Do you know about Tavistock? I do. Coming in with cold feet and warm hands triggers a flag. Might be hard to gather the next ZH comment to regain closure, Good luck.
Atom, I felt a sense of this, when you started, yes I've read about what you talk about...just because it is on a piece of paper, or on electronic media, does not make it true.
I am sure there are some truths and some lies involved, in just about any subject matter you so choose.
Greece is little fish, just wait until the big fish gets hooked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtjaVvJqghs
everybody, listen up, none of this will matter, very soon now, the whole world is going to have a financial collapse, we will not make it past this year, and I am NOT basing this on one video.
it is a hard reality we are all going to face very soon, I hope you all are prepared, and even then you probably wont make it
Not to worry.
The leaders of the big three powers can always agree to the Orwellian Alternative.
Voila , no radiation poisoning.
We here at ZH have seen this movie before. Greece and its idealistic new leaders will fold. Wish it were not so, but that is what the prior history tells us will happen here. I hope they stay strong, but the forces of Empire against them are quite strong. Who can blame them for failling?
the empire you speak of is in just as bad a shape as Greece, only bigger, dont fool yourself, it is all coming down soon
"then we will fight in the shade"
indeed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnuAh3esdpE
Dumb me.
I thought it was going to be in the light of ten thousand suns.
no, in light of ten thousand trillion dollar black holes
If you have the genuine support of the people, you don't really need money. Ditch the Euro, print Drachma, and run a minimalist trriage government that introduces money into the economy by paying the salaries and pensions of those it owes to Greeks. Everyone else can fuck themselves.
you do realize they owe over half the country. No one works for any recognized employer, except .gov workers.
In this case, that will actually help, because it will drive the velocity of money like a firehose for a brief period until there's a reasonable number in circulation.
Greece is Fucked either way. Might as well flip the Banksters Off and crash the Euro!!!
"Might as well flip the Banksters Off and crash the Euro!!!"
As Iceland did. Jail some of them as well. Just like Iceland did.
How many did Iceland jail... I don't recall any of them actuaky doing time
a very quick google search has these four from kaup...thing
http://rt.com/op-edge/iceland-bank-sentence-model-246/
and this one from landesbanki
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30121591
google may of course not be capable of "About 407,000 results (0.38 seconds)"
All those bailouts the last 5 years changed nothing.
Five years later Greece and the rest are in worse shape.
Better to break off all the PIIGS and admit it was a bad idea.
bad idea? Zero reserves on sovereign debt was a bad idea. These guys bought each others debt - its a circle-jerk of defaults
well done QQQ, correct
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnuAh3esdpE
Wait, no banks and no government? Sign me up!
Its odd that bank runs have not occured already.... What are the Italians, Spaniards and Portuguese waiting for? Capital contrtols? LOL
I'm sorry to say that banks in Portugal don't cash checks written on their accounts. And when I say that I'm sorry to say that, you have no idea!
Apparently, the banking systems of other nations are not the same as the US.
I never can understand why imposing "austerity" on GOVERNMENT can't be anything but a plus for the PEOPLE...
That's the punchline to the joke. There is no such thing as government austerity. All they do is up the taxes on the people to make up the shortfall then they're surprised when everything grinds to a halt.