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Picking Up Signs Of Economic Distress In US
Recent US economic data has been disappointing. While perhaps statistical noise, more weak signs continue to mount. Let's start with the durable goods orders reported recently. The headline stat is a very volatile series because aircraft and/or military orders can be quite lumpy. With that said, there has been a big drop in total durable goods orders in the last six months. Historically, using monthly data, the level of total durable goods orders has an 82% correlation with the S&P 500.
Many remove transportation items from the report to smooth out fluctuations and get a better read on core durable goods orders. We don't see much of a statistical difference, as the level of non-transport durable goods also has an 82% correlation with the S&P 500.
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is a short-hand way to keep track of all economic data. It is calculated as a diffusion index and generally oscillates between -100 and 100. In a different way to look at this indicator, we calculate a moving sum as a proxy for the level of economic activity.
The moving sum peaked in February 2014 and has been declining since. In looking back over the last ten years, we've never seen such a big divergence in the direction of these two series.
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failing small Business's are EVERYWHERE Around here!
Lowest rates in history for the longest time in history.
Says all you need to know. Govt terrified.
The higher, the fewer.
Government terrified means that law enforcement is terrified, so we should all anticipate increased acts of unConstitutional behavior and outright tyranny as the entire system grinds to a halt.
Too bad about that pesky Second Amendment which gives the people the power to resist illegal aggression and unlawful behavior from state authorities.
Sucks to be the tyrants, but they had sufficient warning for what's coming their way.
Lowest numbers of small business start ups in history recently. Failures significantly exceeding new starts. This cannot be, eh? Oh well - It must be different this time. And historically small businesses create ~ 60 - 60 % of new jobs.
Bullish
Wait, so the $3 trillion dollars the Fed printed out of thin air has not helped the economy on main street??
Where did the money go then?
Audit the Fed !!
Some of it went here. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-how-qe2-helped-main-street-exam...
I saw that back in 2009, the wealthy, the rich, and the smart have been pulling their money off the table (closing businesses) for quite some time now....
Looks like nothing but an economic wasteland (1930s style) in many cities in the US with innumerable "For Lease" signs everywhere....
Like mine. 26 years. Going down.
you know what i think?
don't matter what i think.
law of diminishing returns
along with the return of diminishing laws
It will be a breath of fresh air when the government cannot afford to enforce any but the most basic of laws.
Unemployment Report B.S.
The End of the Line Report for Feb. 6, 2015 with Dave Kranzler & Rory Hall
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=280356
I was lucky enough recently to find a job paying median wage (~ $31K/year).
After the taxes, mandatory retirement contributions, and health insurance premiums are taken out I'm -40%.
The money I actually have to live on has been reduced by almost $11K.
Think I'm going to be buying shit I don't need? NO.
do you have enough disposable income to buy a pitchfork? pitchfork on credit?
Sounds like us when my husband was laid off. Things are "great" until one gets laid off, and THEN you know the reality.
Definitely. I was unemployed for three years so I appreciate the work, however, it enrages me that 40% of my labor is siphoned off by parasites that don't provide what they promise; the 2008 "collapse" (rape of the citizenry) proved to me that we are overrun with societal tapeworms, leeches, and fleas.
I don't understand all these comments
about layoffs, Obama says everything great
and unemployment going down. I'm unemployed but have
an interview for a $10/hr job Monday .
They're fucking everyone, and 2015 is going to be a doozy. My estimated tax payments are going up 20K v. my 2014 taxes on 30K less income.
Unless they vote to repeal something this year, when the 2015 tax bill comes due in April, 2016, there's going to be a seriously pissed off electorate going into the presidential elections. That should make for some entertainment. I wonder if they'll crash the whole mess before November. It feels early to me, but TPTB are really pushing their luck with the levels of tax increases being dumped on the proles as the bankers celebrate.
historical graphs don't matter when the Fed is manipulating the economy in ways it never has before.
The Fed is unaudited and unregulated. They can do whatever they want.
The history books will show that QE and ZIRP were massive scams designed to protect the wealthy 1% from the economic depression on main street.
Mark Meyers The US is presently at its highest in history for production and resource (through technology an innovation). But it's being raped, robbed and looted. Trillions to banks who are now probably going to crash due to unpayable debt. Billionaires and big corps stockpiling repositories of wealth, like parasites, and 95% of VC going outside of the country. Military operations in 130+ countries, not putting anything back into our ecosystem right here at home. The rest is playing games in the stock derivative Wall Street gambling casino. This fish bowl is being drained in a most amazing time. At our time of our greatest wealth, we're on the verge of economic collapse. If we can fix this system, then we can draw upon our real prosperity for this, and other things as well.
I have one suggestion for a way to fix this system. What if we were to make all campaign advertising illegal, and simply give every candidate for office a web page they can use as their platform for getting their message out? It would be a way to enforce public funding of all campaigns, and would do it on a budget about equal to what the Pentagon spends on paper clips in a day.
Yea......... go net neutrality!
not.
Shuffling ones and zeros is all that is left. What a crock of shit USSA has become.
Bob Pissonme ...er, uh .. I mean Bob Pisani at CNBC says that the economy is back and goldbugs are in for a disappointing year.
(I bet Bob was in that helicopter with ex-Navy SEAL Brian Williams when they were taking heavy fire too)
OK. As just another dumb ass Austrian economist - I give up! It MUST be different this time. It Must!! And in fact - I heard a spin head say that the pther day on CNBC. He looked all of maybe 25 years old. Fit in well with Adam Smith's desired employee. BTFD!!
S&P still being bought with YEN. The fact that the YEN is still a major currency should tell you all you need to know about the worlds financial situation. It should also tell you that all central banks get their orders for a small group of people.
In my area (Pacific Northwest) I'm seeing a lot more closed storefronts, but some new ones opening. Also seeing a metric fuckton of homeless people on the streets lately, seems like more every day, a lot of beggars and a whole lot more who aren't begging but who are obviously destitite. When I was a kid back in the 60's there were homeless people, but nothing like today, nothing at all like how it is nowadays, it's extremely ugly out there.
.......Thank you FREE TRADE!!!!
What a stupid, stupid, stupid, destructive, idea that has been.
Anybody who really believes that American workers and productive businesses can compete against foreign workers who are paid $2 a day is mentally defective and too ignorant to be allowed to breathe.
After burdening Americans with thousands of expensive rules, regulations, taxes, unions, pensions, debased currency, and liabilities; the international banksters (FED) and their wholly-owned international corporate minions and corrupt politicians have inflicted this devolutional economic horror on us,...and it is only going to get worse.
With the Bush/Ovomit/Boehner/Rubio/McConnell/Chamber of Commerce-promoted invasion of diseased, uneducated, low-wage foreign invaders flooding over our open borders the planned decline of our economic and moral condition is quickening.
If you don't believe that, you are part of the problem.
Ever seen a dead animal eaten by maggots?
Looking at Doug Shorts chartporn on NYSE Margin debt - well to sum up:
Looks like the TOP is IN (Dec 2014) - margin debt peaked in mid 2014, the market rolls over some months later(*). The journey downhill will be entertaining to folks on ZH, and less so for folks in the industry that have career risk to manage :-).
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-t...
(*)Of course, if there is some sort of bubbly blow-off where margin debt spikes once more - then this observation will implode. YMMV and trade accordingly...
The top is surely called for municipal bonds. This article indicates how nervous they are getting:
Puerto Rico Restructuring Law Thrown Out in Bondholder WinDuh. FED software applications don't have macro economic stats as part of their dabatases.
You just BTFD and stop caring about idiotic things that don't matter.
.....Yeah....right,stop caring about idiotic things like food, clothing, shelter, heat, transportation, medical care, education, small business survival, food production/family farms, self-defense, alien invasion, militarized police, a burdgeoning Ovomit-aided fifth column growth of imported muscum terrorists, fascist/socialist insatiable federal power,...... etc, etc., etc.
If you aren't concerned with the above, you are part of the problem.
The class envy meme that has been an integral part of domestic political strategy is going to go totally wrong for the moochers and looters soon. Public sector workers are becoming conspicuous in their financial security. Like politics, class envy is local and relative.